Netflix (NFLX)
Market Price (7/23/2026): $68.6 | Market Cap: $287.4 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Communication Services | Industry: Movies & Entertainment
Netflix (NFLX)
Market Price (7/23/2026): $68.6Market Cap: $287.4 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Movies & Entertainment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 30% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, CFO LTM is 12 Bil, FCF LTM is 11 Bil Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -31% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 26 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Content & Streaming, and Future of Entertainment. Themes include Video Streaming, and Original Content Production. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -28%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -14% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 5.9x Key risksNFLX key risks include [1] immense financial pressure from escalating content production costs and the potential for high-budget flops, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 30% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, CFO LTM is 12 Bil, FCF LTM is 11 Bil |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -31% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 26 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Content & Streaming, and Future of Entertainment. Themes include Video Streaming, and Original Content Production. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -28%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -14% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 5.9x |
| Key risksNFLX key risks include [1] immense financial pressure from escalating content production costs and the potential for high-budget flops, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Netflix (NFLX) stock has lost about 30% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Disappointing Q2 2026 Revenue and Weak Q3 2026 Guidance.
Netflix reported Q2 2026 revenue of $12.56 billion, which narrowly missed analyst estimates of $12.58 billion to $12.59 billion. More significantly, the company's Q3 2026 revenue guidance of $12.86 billion fell below Wall Street's forecast of $13.0 billion, and its Q3 2026 EPS guidance of $0.82 per share also missed predictions of $0.84 per share. The full-year 2026 revenue outlook was also narrowed to $51.0-$51.4 billion, with the upper limit decreasing, leading to investor concerns about future growth trajectory.
2. Decelerating Growth and Modest Engagement Increases.
The company's revenue growth rate slowed from 16% year-over-year in fiscal Q1 2026 to 13.4% in fiscal Q2 2026. Furthermore, Netflix projected its fiscal Q3 2026 revenue growth at 11.7%, marking its smallest year-on-year increase for any quarter since late 2023. Total worldwide content engagement increased by only 2% year-over-year in the first half of 2026, contributing to investor anxiety regarding slowing growth in a competitive streaming landscape.
Show more
Netflix (NFLX) stock has lost about 30% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Disappointing Q2 2026 Revenue and Weak Q3 2026 Guidance.
Netflix reported Q2 2026 revenue of $12.56 billion, which narrowly missed analyst estimates of $12.58 billion to $12.59 billion. More significantly, the company's Q3 2026 revenue guidance of $12.86 billion fell below Wall Street's forecast of $13.0 billion, and its Q3 2026 EPS guidance of $0.82 per share also missed predictions of $0.84 per share. The full-year 2026 revenue outlook was also narrowed to $51.0-$51.4 billion, with the upper limit decreasing, leading to investor concerns about future growth trajectory.
2. Decelerating Growth and Modest Engagement Increases.
The company's revenue growth rate slowed from 16% year-over-year in fiscal Q1 2026 to 13.4% in fiscal Q2 2026. Furthermore, Netflix projected its fiscal Q3 2026 revenue growth at 11.7%, marking its smallest year-on-year increase for any quarter since late 2023. Total worldwide content engagement increased by only 2% year-over-year in the first half of 2026, contributing to investor anxiety regarding slowing growth in a competitive streaming landscape.
3. Significant Insider Selling by Key Executives.
Several high-ranking Netflix executives engaged in substantial stock sales since fiscal Q1 2026. Reed Hastings sold shares valued at an estimated $183,881,641, Co-CEO Gregory K. Peters sold shares for approximately $13,468,903, CFO Spencer Adam Neumann sold shares worth an estimated $12,625,852, and Bradford L. Smith sold shares for about $5,614,620. These insider transactions, all exceeding $5 million, may have signaled a lack of executive confidence to the market, adding downward pressure on the stock.
4. Reduced Transparency in Performance Metrics.
Netflix's decision to cease reporting quarterly subscriber counts (effective fiscal Q1 2025) and to shift its "What We Watched" report, detailing engagement hours, from semi-annual to annual releases starting in fiscal Q1 2027, has fueled investor skepticism. Analysts and investors have interpreted these changes as an attempt to divert attention from potentially slowing user growth and engagement metrics, leading to increased uncertainty.
5. Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Reductions.
Following the Q2 2026 earnings report and weaker Q3 2026 guidance, several Wall Street analysts lowered their price targets for Netflix shares. For instance, JPMorgan Chase cut its price target from $118 to $85, Guggenheim reduced its target to $75, Pivotal Research adjusted its target from $96 to $70, and Bernstein lowered its target from $100 to $95. These revised expectations reflected diminished confidence in the company's near-term growth prospects.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -28.7% change in NFLX stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -43.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 96.15 | 68.53 | -28.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 45,183 | 48,371 | 7.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 24.3% | 28.2% | 16.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 37.0 | 21.0 | -43.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,229 | 4,189 | 0.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -28.7% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NFLX | -28.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.9% | 1.9% |
| Sector (XLC) | -1.5% | 43.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -26.9% change in NFLX stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -44.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 93.76 | 68.53 | -26.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 43,379 | 48,371 | 11.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 24.0% | 28.2% | 17.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 38.2 | 21.0 | -44.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,245 | 4,189 | 1.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -26.9% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NFLX | -26.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.9% | 8.3% |
| Sector (XLC) | -6.9% | 38.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -48.8% change in NFLX stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -65.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 133.91 | 68.53 | -48.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 40,173 | 48,371 | 20.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 23.1% | 28.2% | 22.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 61.7 | 21.0 | -65.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,273 | 4,189 | 2.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -48.8% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NFLX | -48.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 22.0% | 11.9% |
| Sector (XLC) | 1.6% | 33.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 55.6% change in NFLX stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 114.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 44.05 | 68.53 | 55.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 31,909 | 48,371 | 51.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.2% | 28.2% | 114.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 46.7 | 21.0 | -55.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,452 | 4,189 | 6.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 55.6% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NFLX | 55.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.6% | 37.9% |
| Sector (XLC) | 73.1% | 46.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NFLX Return | 11% | -51% | 65% | 83% | 5% | -27% | 27% |
| Peers Return | -0% | -42% | 37% | 16% | 35% | -2% | 22% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 100% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NFLX Win Rate | 42% | 42% | 58% | 83% | 50% | 14% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 32% | 67% | 55% | 52% | 34% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 57% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NFLX Max Drawdown | -17% | -72% | -28% | -13% | -31% | -37% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -31% | -49% | -24% | -26% | -30% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: DIS, WBD, AMZN, CMCSA, AAPL. See NFLX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/22/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NFLX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -18.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 19 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -11.7% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.2% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 14 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -19.1% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 23.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 16 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -18.4% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.5% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 69 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -72.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 259.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 657 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -22.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 28 days | 140 days |
In The Past
Netflix's stock fell -18.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 21.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
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| Event | NFLX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -72.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 259.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 657 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -22.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 28 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -38.0% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 87 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -34.0% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.4% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 259 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -33.7% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.9% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 66 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -72.0% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 257.5% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 668 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -37.5% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.0% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 51 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -20.1% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.1% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 63 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Netflix's stock fell -18.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 21.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Netflix (NFLX)
Netflix, Inc. operates as a leading global entertainment company, primarily recognized for its comprehensive streaming service. The company provides an extensive array of TV series, documentaries, feature films, and mobile games, spanning various genres and languages, which are delivered directly to subscribers over the internet.
The core of Netflix's business involves enabling members worldwide to access its content library through a wide range of internet-connected devices, such as televisions, digital video players, set-top boxes, and mobile devices. In addition to its predominant streaming platform, Netflix also maintains a DVDs-by-mail membership service, though this particular offering is exclusively available to customers within the United States.
Netflix serves a substantial international market, with approximately 222 million paid members distributed across 190 countries. This expansive global footprint highlights its significant presence as a premier provider of digital entertainment, catering to a vast and diverse customer base across nearly every continent.
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- Like Blockbuster, but for streaming movies and TV shows instantly to your devices instead of renting physical discs.
- A global cable TV provider, but all content is on-demand and streamed over the internet.
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- Streaming Content Subscription: Provides access to TV series, documentaries, feature films, and mobile games for streaming across internet-connected devices.
- DVDs-by-Mail Subscription: Offers physical DVD and Blu-ray rentals delivered by mail within the United States.
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Netflix (NFLX) sells primarily to individuals.
Its major customer categories are:
- Global Streaming Subscribers: This represents the vast majority of Netflix's customer base across 190 countries, who subscribe to consume TV series, documentaries, and feature films via various internet-connected devices.
- Mobile Gamers: A distinct segment of subscribers who engage with the mobile games offered by Netflix, representing a newer form of content consumption within their ecosystem.
- DVD-by-Mail Subscribers (United States): A specific, geographically limited customer segment in the United States that utilizes Netflix's legacy DVD rental service.
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Amazon (AMZN)
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Reed Hastings, Chairman
Reed Hastings co-founded Netflix in 1997 and served as CEO for 25 years before transitioning to Executive Chairman in 2023. Prior to Netflix, he founded Pure Software in 1991, which he took public and sold in 1997. Hastings is an active educational philanthropist and previously served as President of the California State Board of Education. He also sits on the boards of private companies Bloomberg and Anthropic.
Ted Sarandos, Co-CEO
Ted Sarandos has served as co-chief executive officer of Netflix since July 2020. He joined Netflix in 2000 and, prior to becoming co-CEO, was the company's chief content officer, overseeing its original programming and entertainment efforts. His early career involved managing retail video stores and serving as Vice President of Product and Merchandising for Video City/West Coast Video, a chain of almost 500 stores, until March 2000. Sarandos was responsible for initiating Netflix's first round of original programming.
Greg Peters, Co-CEO
Greg Peters was named co-CEO of Netflix in January 2023. Before this, he held roles as Chief Operating Officer and Chief Product Officer at Netflix. Peters joined Netflix in 2008 as International Development Officer. Prior to his tenure at Netflix, he was Senior Vice President of consumer electronics products for Macrovision Solutions Corp. He notably led Netflix's expansion into Asia, including its launch in Japan in 2015, and has been a key driver behind the company's ventures into gaming and the introduction of its ad-supported subscription tier.
Spencer Neumann, Chief Financial Officer
Spencer Neumann was appointed CFO of Netflix in January 2019. His previous experience includes serving as CFO of Activision Blizzard and holding various positions at The Walt Disney Company, such as CFO and Executive Vice President of Global Guest Experience of Walt Disney Parks and Resorts. Neumann also worked at the private equity firms of Providence Equity Partners and Summit Partners. He currently serves on the board of Adobe.
Bela Bajaria, Chief Content Officer
Bela Bajaria has served as Netflix's Chief Content Officer since January 2023, overseeing the company's global television and film content strategy. She joined Netflix in 2016, initially responsible for unscripted and scripted series. Before joining Netflix, Bajaria was President of Universal Television. She began her career in the entertainment industry as an assistant in the movies and miniseries department at CBS in 1996. Under her leadership, Netflix has expanded its content offerings to include a diverse range of genres and formats, including live events and sports.
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The key risks to Netflix's business include:
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Intense Competition and Market Saturation: Netflix faces significant competition from a growing number of streaming services, including major players like Disney+, Amazon Prime Video, HBO Max, and Apple TV+. This competitive landscape has led to increased content spending across the industry, making it challenging for Netflix to acquire and retain subscribers, particularly in mature markets such as the United States where its penetration is already high. Competitors' strategies, such as content bundling and leveraging strong franchises, also contribute to churn risk and make subscriber retention more difficult for Netflix.
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Escalating Content Costs and Margin Compression: To compete effectively and attract new subscribers, Netflix continues to invest heavily in producing and acquiring original content. This substantial and increasing content expenditure, which can exceed billions of dollars annually, is a significant financial burden. While essential for differentiation, these rising content costs can lead to a reduction in operating margins and impact overall profitability, especially if subscriber growth does not keep pace.
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Slowing Subscriber Growth and Monetization Challenges: Netflix has experienced a slowdown in subscriber growth in established markets, like the U.S. and Canada, attributed partly to market saturation and previous price increases. Although efforts like cracking down on password sharing have shown short-term benefits in boosting revenue and subscriber numbers, there is an inherent risk of alienating existing users. Furthermore, the effectiveness of new monetization strategies, such as ad-supported tiers, in fully offsetting the deceleration of premium subscriber growth remains a concern for the company.
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The proliferation of well-funded, content-rich streaming services from major media companies (e.g., Disney+, Max, Amazon Prime Video, Apple TV+) poses a clear emerging threat. This intense competition for subscribers and content leads to escalating content production and acquisition costs, increased subscriber churn due to market saturation and subscription fatigue, and the withdrawal of popular licensed content by studios for their own platforms.
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Netflix's main products and services operate within several addressable markets, primarily global video streaming and mobile gaming, and a smaller, declining market for DVD-by-mail services in the United States.
Global Video Streaming / Subscription Video on Demand (SVOD)
The global Subscription Video on Demand (SVOD) market, which encompasses Netflix's core streaming service, was valued at approximately USD 128.43 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 209.35 billion by 2030, exhibiting a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 8.5% over the forecast period. Another estimate places the global SVOD market at USD 130.2 billion in 2024, expecting it to expand to USD 237.4 billion by 2030 with a CAGR of 9.8%. More broadly, the global video streaming market was estimated at USD 129.26 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 416.8 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 21.5% from 2025 to 2030. Other analyses forecast the global video streaming market to reach USD 843.0 billion by 2033, from USD 137.9 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 22.3% from 2025 to 2033. The overall video on demand market was valued at USD 170.3 billion in 2024 and reached USD 198.3 billion in 2025.
Global Mobile Gaming
Netflix has expanded into mobile games, tapping into the global mobile gaming market. This market was valued at approximately USD 100.08 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach USD 216.82 billion by 2033, demonstrating a CAGR of 8.52% from 2025-2033. Another report estimates the global mobile gaming market size at USD 139.38 billion in 2024, with a projection to reach USD 256.19 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 10.2% from 2025 to 2030.
U.S. DVD, Game & Video Rental
For its DVDs-by-mail membership services, Netflix operates within the U.S. DVD, Game & Video Rental market. This market was valued at USD 630.1 million in 2025 and is estimated to be around USD 606.3 million in 2026. This market has experienced a decline, with revenue dropping at a CAGR of 9.0% through the five years to 2026.
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- Growth of Ad-Supported Tier: Netflix's ad-supported subscription tier is a significant driver, having reached 94 million subscribers globally by May 2025, a 34% increase from November 2024. This less-expensive option now accounts for 50% of all new Netflix subscribers. Netflix more than doubled its ad revenue in 2025 compared to 2024, to over $1.5 billion, and expects it to roughly double again in 2026 to about $3 billion.
- Paid Sharing Initiative: The strategic crackdown on password sharing has proven to be a major success, converting unauthorized viewers into paying subscribers. This initiative significantly bolstered subscriber numbers, adding 9.3 million new subscribers in Q1 2024 and 9 million new subscribers globally in Q3 2023.
- Price Increases and Average Revenue Per Membership (ARM) Growth: Netflix has been implementing price increases, and management expects continued growth in average revenue per membership (ARM) which contributes to overall revenue. While Q1 2024 saw modest ARM growth, the company expects it to continue throughout the year.
- Content Investment and Diversification: A strong and diverse content slate, including original programming, international productions, reality shows, live events, and sports, is crucial for attracting and retaining subscribers. Netflix is also expanding its content offerings to include video podcasts and live sports, such as the World Baseball Classic in Japan and MLB rights.
- Gaming Monetization: While Netflix's gaming strategy primarily focuses on enhancing subscriber engagement and retention, the company is exploring new monetization strategies for its gaming platform. Potential revenue streams could include in-game purchases and premium gaming subscriptions, moving beyond the current model where most games are free of in-app purchases.
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[1] Share Repurchases
- Netflix reported net common equity repurchases of approximately $22.772 billion in 2025.
- Net common equity repurchases were approximately $5.431 billion in 2024.
- In 2023, net common equity repurchases amounted to approximately $5.875 billion.
[2] Share Issuance
- Netflix's shares outstanding declined by 1.11% in 2025 to 4.344 billion, indicating net share repurchases over issuance.
- In 2024, shares outstanding decreased by 2.28% to 4.393 billion, also reflecting net repurchases.
- Shares outstanding saw a 0.4% decline in 2023, reaching 4.495 billion, suggesting a continuation of net share repurchases.
[4] Outbound Investments
- Netflix did not report meaningful long-term investments (outbound) for 2025, 2024, or 2023, with figures recorded as $0B for these years.
[5] Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures peaked in December 2025 at $688.2 million.
- In 2024, capital expenditures were approximately $439.5 million.
- Capital expenditures were $348.6 million in 2023, marking its five-year low.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Is Netflix Asking Investors to Trust a Story It Will No Longer Tell? | 07/22/2026 | |
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| Get Paid 8.9% To Wait For NFLX Stock To Go On Sale | 07/02/2026 | |
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| ... | 06/23/2026 | |
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Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 82.20 |
| Mkt Cap | 228.2 |
| Rev LTM | 111,270 |
| Op Inc LTM | 16,751 |
| FCF LTM | 9,131 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 11,885 |
| CFO LTM | 24,016 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 22,801 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.4% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 16.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 31.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 14.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 15.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 22.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 228.2 |
| P/S | 2.6 |
| P/Op Inc | 25.4 |
| P/EBIT | 19.4 |
| P/E | 18.1 |
| P/CFO | 17.9 |
| Total Yield | 4.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -6.6% |
| 6M Rtn | -12.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -6.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 66.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -12.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -20.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -25.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -4.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | 45,183 | 39,001 | 33,723 | ||
| DVD revenues | 146 | 182 | |||
| Streaming revenues | 31,470 | 29,515 | |||
| Total | 45,183 | 39,001 | 33,723 | 31,616 | 29,698 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | 13,327 | 10,418 | 6,954 | ||
| DVD revenues | 212 | 248 | |||
| Domestic Streaming | 2,583 | 2,280 | |||
| International Streaming | 662 | 227 | |||
| Other operating expenses | -1,852 | -1,916 | |||
| Total | 13,327 | 10,418 | 6,954 | 1,605 | 839 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | 10,981 | 8,712 | 5,408 |
| Total | 10,981 | 8,712 | 5,408 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $68.53 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 289.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/23/2002 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -45.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $79.38 | $93.00 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -13.7% | -26.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 32.3% | 34.7% |
| Downside Capture | 46.35 | 72.09 |
| Upside Capture | -104.15 | -8.18 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 0.7% | 11.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.00 | -0.12 | 0.19 | 0.20 | 0.32 | 0.85 |
| Up Beta | 0.82 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.47 | 0.51 | 0.78 |
| Down Beta | -1.48 | -0.33 | -0.26 | -0.10 | -0.08 | 0.71 |
| Up Capture | -79% | -99% | -38% | -9% | -2% | 90% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 7 | 12 | 25 | 53 | 112 | 379 |
| Down Capture | 119% | 65% | 82% | 63% | 93% | 99% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 14 | 29 | 38 | 72 | 140 | 371 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NFLX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFLX | -44.6% | 34.7% | -1.64 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 2.5% | 13.9% | -0.06 | 32.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 20.0% | 12.6% | 1.16 | 11.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.2% | 28.1% | 0.67 | 5.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 33.0% | 19.1% | 1.36 | 6.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.9% | 14.0% | 0.70 | 4.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -43.6% | 42.9% | -1.21 | 10.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NFLX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFLX | 4.6% | 43.4% | 0.24 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 7.0% | 20.8% | 0.25 | 58.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.58 | 47.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.3% | 18.4% | 0.76 | 7.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.3% | 19.5% | 0.37 | 6.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.7% | 18.9% | 0.04 | 23.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 15.2% | 53.5% | 0.46 | 25.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NFLX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFLX | 21.7% | 41.5% | 0.62 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 9.0% | 22.1% | 0.46 | 59.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 47.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.5% | 16.1% | 0.58 | 8.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.1% | 17.9% | 0.31 | 12.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 23.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.5% | 66.2% | 0.99 | 15.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 7/22/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/16/2026 | -7.3% | ||
| 4/16/2026 | -9.7% | -13.9% | -19.3% |
| 1/20/2026 | -2.2% | -1.9% | -11.8% |
| 10/21/2025 | -10.1% | -11.2% | -11.4% |
| 7/17/2025 | -5.1% | -7.3% | -2.8% |
| 4/17/2025 | 1.5% | 13.2% | 22.5% |
| 10/17/2024 | 11.1% | 9.7% | 19.8% |
| 7/18/2024 | -1.5% | -1.4% | 4.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 9 | 12 |
| # Negative | 16 | 14 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 10.9% | 13.2% | 14.9% |
| Median Negative | -7.1% | -7.8% | -11.4% |
| Max Positive | 16.9% | 20.8% | 34.9% |
| Max Negative | -35.1% | -43.1% | -49.2% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/16/2026 | -7.3% | ||
| 4/16/2026 | -9.7% | -13.9% | -19.3% |
| 1/20/2026 | -2.2% | -1.9% | -11.8% |
| 10/21/2025 | -10.1% | -11.2% | -11.4% |
| 7/17/2025 | -5.1% | -7.3% | -2.8% |
| 4/17/2025 | 1.5% | 13.2% | 22.5% |
| 10/17/2024 | 11.1% | 9.7% | 19.8% |
| 7/18/2024 | -1.5% | -1.4% | 4.8% |
| 4/18/2024 | -9.1% | -7.5% | 1.7% |
| 1/23/2024 | 10.7% | 14.4% | 19.6% |
| 10/18/2023 | 16.1% | 18.8% | 34.9% |
| 7/19/2023 | -8.4% | -11.5% | -15.6% |
| 4/18/2023 | -3.2% | -3.3% | 1.9% |
| 1/19/2023 | 8.5% | 15.5% | 10.2% |
| 10/18/2022 | 13.1% | 20.8% | 27.1% |
| 7/19/2022 | 7.3% | 6.1% | 19.6% |
| 4/19/2022 | -35.1% | -43.1% | -49.2% |
| 1/20/2022 | -21.8% | -23.9% | -23.0% |
| 10/19/2021 | -2.2% | 4.6% | 8.2% |
| 7/20/2021 | -3.3% | -2.3% | -1.7% |
| 4/20/2021 | -7.4% | -8.0% | -11.3% |
| 1/19/2021 | 16.9% | 12.0% | 9.3% |
| 10/20/2020 | -6.9% | -6.9% | -8.3% |
| 7/16/2020 | -6.5% | -9.4% | -8.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 9 | 12 |
| # Negative | 16 | 14 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 10.9% | 13.2% | 14.9% |
| Median Negative | -7.1% | -7.8% | -11.4% |
| Max Positive | 16.9% | 20.8% | 34.9% |
| Max Negative | -35.1% | -43.1% | -49.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/17/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/17/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 01/23/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/22/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/18/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/18/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/18/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/19/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/22/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 01/26/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/20/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/21/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/21/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 01/26/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/20/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/17/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/17/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 01/23/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/22/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/18/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/18/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/18/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/19/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/22/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 01/26/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/20/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/21/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/21/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 01/26/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/20/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/21/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/21/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 01/27/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/21/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/22/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/22/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 01/28/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/22/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/20/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 04/21/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 01/29/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/18/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/17/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/16/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Revenue | 12.86 Bil | ||||||
| Q3 2026 Revenue Growth | 12.0% | ||||||
| Q3 2026 Operating Margin | 33.2% | 0.6% | Higher New | Actual: 32.6% for Q2 2026 | |||
| Q3 2026 Operating Income | 4.27 Bil | 4.0% | Higher New | Actual: 4.11 Bil for Q2 2026 | |||
| Q3 2026 Net Income | 3.45 Bil | 3.8% | Higher New | Actual: 3.33 Bil for Q2 2026 | |||
| Q3 2026 EPS | 0.82 | 5.1% | Higher New | Actual: 0.78 for Q2 2026 | |||
| 2026 Revenue | 51.00 Bil | 51.20 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 51.20 Bil for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Operating Margin | 31.5% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 31.5% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Ads Revenue | 3.00 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.00 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Operating Income Growth | 20.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | 12.50 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 12.50 Bil for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/16/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 50.70 Bil | 51.20 Bil | 51.70 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 51.20 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 12.0% | 13.0% | 14.0% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 13.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Operating Margin | 31.5% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 31.5% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Ad Revenue | 3.00 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | 12.50 Bil | 13.6% | Raised | Guidance: 11.00 Bil for 2026 | |||
| Q2 2026 Revenue | 12.57 Bil | ||||||
| Q2 2026 Operating Income | 4.11 Bil | ||||||
| Q2 2026 Operating Margin | 32.6% | ||||||
| Q2 2026 Net Income | 3.33 Bil | ||||||
| Q2 2026 EPS | 0.78 | ||||||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/20/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | 12.16 Bil | 1.6% | Higher New | Actual: 11.96 Bil for Q4 2025 | |||
| Q1 2026 Operating Income | 3.91 Bil | 36.6% | Higher New | Actual: 2.86 Bil for Q4 2025 | |||
| Q1 2026 Operating Margin | 32.1% | 8.2% | Higher New | Actual: 23.9% for Q4 2025 | |||
| Q1 2026 Net Income | 3.26 Bil | 38.6% | Higher New | Actual: 2.35 Bil for Q4 2025 | |||
| Q1 2026 Diluted EPS | 0.76 | -86.1% | Lower New | Actual: 5.45 for Q4 2025 | |||
| 2026 Revenue | 50.70 Bil | 51.20 Bil | 51.70 Bil | 13.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 45.10 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 12.0% | 13.0% | 14.0% | ||||
| 2026 Ad Revenue Growth | 100.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Operating Margin | 31.5% | 2.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 29.0% for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | 11.00 Bil | 22.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 9.00 Bil for 2025 | |||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/21/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Revenue | 11.96 Bil | 3.8% | Higher New | Actual: 11.53 Bil for Q3 2025 | |||
| Q4 2025 Revenue Growth | 16.7% | -0.6% | Lower New | Actual: 17.3% for Q3 2025 | |||
| Q4 2025 Operating Income | 2.86 Bil | -21.1% | Lower New | Actual: 3.62 Bil for Q3 2025 | |||
| Q4 2025 Operating Margin | 23.9% | -7.6% | Lower New | Actual: 31.5% for Q3 2025 | |||
| Q4 2025 Net Income | 2.35 Bil | -20.9% | Lower New | Actual: 2.98 Bil for Q3 2025 | |||
| Q4 2025 EPS | 5.45 | -20.7% | Lower New | Actual: 6.87 for Q3 2025 | |||
| 2025 Revenue | 45.10 Bil | 0.2% | Raised | Guidance: 45.00 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Operating Margin | 29.0% | -0.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 29.5% for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Free Cash Flow | 9.00 Bil | 9.1% | Raised | Guidance: 8.25 Bil for 2025 | |||
Insider Activity
Updated 7/2/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Smith, Bradford L | Direct | Sell | 6182026 | 77.52 | 35,990 | 2,789,799 | 6,177,247 | Form | |
| 2 | Hastings, Reed | Direct | Sell | 6022026 | 85.97 | 386,700 | 33,244,035 | 338,716 | Form | |
| 3 | Peters, Gregory K | Co-CEO | Direct | Sell | 5072026 | 88.69 | 27,312 | 2,422,421 | 10,725,902 | Form |
| 4 | Neumann, Spencer Adam | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 5072026 | 88.95 | 9,253 | 823,075 | 6,563,516 | Form |
| 5 | Hastings, Reed | Direct | Sell | 5042026 | 93.13 | 407,550 | 37,956,938 | 366,950 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Smith, Bradford L | Direct | Sell | 6182026 | 77.52 | 35,990 | 2,789,799 | 6,177,247 | Form | |
| 2 | Hastings, Reed | Direct | Sell | 6022026 | 85.97 | 386,700 | 33,244,035 | 338,716 | Form | |
| 3 | Peters, Gregory K | Co-CEO | Direct | Sell | 5072026 | 88.69 | 27,312 | 2,422,421 | 10,725,902 | Form |
| 4 | Neumann, Spencer Adam | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 5072026 | 88.95 | 9,253 | 823,075 | 6,563,516 | Form |
| 5 | Hastings, Reed | Direct | Sell | 5042026 | 93.13 | 407,550 | 37,956,938 | 366,950 | Form | |
| 6 | Hastings, Reed | Direct | Sell | 4022026 | 95.49 | 420,550 | 40,156,465 | 376,213 | Form | |
| 7 | Neumann, Spencer Adam | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 3022026 | 95.50 | 57,260 | 5,468,330 | 7,046,658 | Form |
| 8 | Peters, Gregory K | Co-CEO | Direct | Sell | 2112026 | 83.24 | 27,312 | 2,273,454 | 10,166,949 | Form |
| 9 | Willems, Cletus R | Chief Global Affairs Officer | Direct | Sell | 2112026 | 82.67 | 3,136 | Form | ||
| 10 | Hyman, David A | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 2112026 | 81.06 | 5,727 | 464,231 | 25,623,098 | Form |
| 11 | Neumann, Spencer Adam | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 2092026 | 81.27 | 9,248 | 751,598 | 5,996,773 | Form |
| 12 | Hastings, Reed | Direct | Sell | 2032026 | 83.63 | 390,970 | 32,695,591 | 329,490 | Form | |
| 13 | Peters, Gregory K | Co-CEO | Direct | Sell | 1302026 | 82.94 | 105,781 | 8,773,028 | 10,129,774 | Form |
| 14 | Hyman, David A | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 1202026 | 88.11 | 23,439 | 2,065,206 | 27,851,508 | Form |
| 15 | Smith, Bradford L | Direct | Sell | 1162026 | 88.86 | 31,790 | 2,824,821 | 7,081,158 | Form | |
| 16 | Hastings, Reed | Direct | Sell | 1052026 | 91.67 | 426,290 | 39,077,470 | 361,175 | Form | |
| 17 | Hastings, Reed | Direct | Sell | 12022025 | 108.43 | 375,470 | 40,712,436 | 427,217 | Form | |
| 18 | Willems, Cletus R | Chief Global Affairs Officer | Direct | Sell | 11062025 | 1100.33 | 238 | Form | ||
| 19 | Peters, Gregory K | Co-CEO | Direct | Sell | 11052025 | 1095.68 | 2,027 | 2,220,943 | 14,003,886 | Form |
| 20 | Sarandos, Theodore A | Co-CEO | Direct | Sell | 11052025 | 1092.08 | 2,027 | 2,213,639 | 16,564,613 | Form |
| 21 | Hyman, David A | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 11052025 | 1099.84 | 31,462 | 34,603,191 | 34,765,968 | Form |
| 22 | Neumann, Spencer Adam | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 11052025 | 1093.78 | 695 | 760,177 | 4,026,204 | Form |
| 23 | Neumann, Spencer Adam | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 11042025 | 1121.67 | 240 | 269,200 | 4,140,072 | Form |
| 24 | Neumann, Spencer Adam | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 11042025 | 1097.56 | 2,360 | 2,590,251 | 4,314,524 | Form |
| 25 | Hastings, Reed | Direct | Sell | 11042025 | 1121.51 | 40,374 | 45,279,704 | 441,874 | Form | |
| 26 | Neumann, Spencer Adam | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 10022025 | 1172.51 | 2,600 | 3,048,515 | 4,327,719 | Form |
| 27 | Hastings, Reed | Direct | Sell | 10022025 | 1171.92 | 42,176 | 49,427,029 | 461,738 | Form | |
| 28 | Neumann, Spencer Adam | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 9032025 | 1207.76 | 2,600 | 3,140,167 | 4,457,829 | Form |
| 29 | Hastings, Reed | Direct | Sell | 9032025 | 1207.71 | 25,959 | 31,351,002 | 475,839 | Form | |
| 30 | Willems, Cletus R | Chief Global Affairs Officer | Direct | Sell | 8062025 | 1153.52 | 238 | Form | ||
| 31 | Neumann, Spencer Adam | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 8062025 | 1161.21 | 685 | 795,432 | 4,286,042 | Form |
| 32 | Hyman, David A | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 8062025 | 1158.67 | 424 | 491,276 | 36,625,559 | Form |
| 33 | Peters, Gregory K | Co-CEO | Direct | Sell | 8062025 | 1157.44 | 2,026 | 2,344,964 | 14,793,178 | Form |
| 34 | Sarandos, Theodore A | Co-CEO | Direct | Sell | 8062025 | 1160.62 | 2,026 | 2,351,411 | 17,604,248 | Form |
| 35 | Neumann, Spencer Adam | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 8042025 | 1162.40 | 2,601 | 3,023,392 | 4,290,404 | Form |
| 36 | Hastings, Reed | Direct | Sell | 8042025 | 1162.46 | 22,765 | 26,463,288 | 458,007 | Form | |
| 37 | Masiyiwa, Strive | Direct | Sell | 7022025 | 1336.54 | 290 | Form | |||
| 38 | Neumann, Spencer Adam | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 7022025 | 1307.22 | 2,601 | 3,400,075 | 4,824,943 | Form |
| 39 | Hastings, Reed | Direct | Sell | 7022025 | 1329.11 | 9,673 | 12,856,484 | 523,669 | Form | |
| 40 | Hastings, Reed | Direct | Sell | 7022025 | 1295.78 | 16,840 | 21,821,013 | 13,044,664 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Jul 23, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barton Investment Management | $225.3 Mil | 28.3% | 54 | Hold | 13F |
| SRS Investment Management, LLC | $1.5 Bil | 15.4% | 29 | Hold | 13F |
| Gobi Capital LLC | $199.2 Mil | 11.6% | 10 | ADD +32.4% | 13F |
| Grace & Mercy Foundation, Inc. | $44.2 Mil | 10.8% | 21 | Hold | 13F |
| Venator Management LLC | $37.2 Mil | 8.9% | 28 | ADD +42.8% | 13F |
| Teewinot Capital Advisers, L.L.C. | $98.6 Mil | 7.9% | 33 | ADD +51.4% | 13F |
| Greenlea Lane Capital Management, LLC | $26.9 Mil | 7.8% | 9 | New | 13F |
| Alta Park Capital, LP | $47.8 Mil | 7.7% | 24 | ADD +50.9% | 13F |
| Islander Capital Partners, L.P. | $19.2 Mil | 7.6% | 15 | TRIM -24.2% | 13F |
| Consulta Ltd | $144.2 Mil | 7.2% | 13 | ADD +100.0% | 13F |
| Mcdonald Capital Investors Inc/Ca | $104.4 Mil | 7.1% | 21 | Hold | 13F |
| HS Management Partners, LLC | $19.5 Mil | 6.8% | 24 | TRIM -15.5% | 13F |
| BSN CAPITAL PARTNERS Ltd | $138.6 Mil | 6.5% | 41 | ADD +1840.2% | 13F |
| Bowie Capital Management, LLC | $110.8 Mil | 5.2% | 29 | ADD +17.9% | 13F |
| ThornTree Capital Partners LP | $28.9 Mil | 5.1% | 16 | Hold | 13F |
| Long Walk Management LP | $17.3 Mil | 5.0% | 11 | New | 13F |
| Northern Right Capital Management, L.P. | $13.7 Mil | 4.9% | 25 | New | 13F |
| Foxhaven Asset Management, LP | $140.9 Mil | 4.4% | 14 | ADD +8.3% | 13F |
| Concord Investment Counsel Inc. | $12.5 Mil | 4.2% | 41 | Hold | 13F |
| Newlands Management Operations LLC | $644.9 Mil | 4.2% | 16 | Hold | 13F |
| Ithaka Group LLC | $20.1 Mil | 4.2% | 38 | Hold | 13F |
| KR Capital LP | $20.5 Mil | 4.1% | 49 | New | 13F |
| Retail Employees Superannuation Pty Ltd as trustee for Retail Employees Superannuation Trust | $26.8 Mil | 4.0% | 28 | New | 13F |
| Southpoint Capital Advisors LP | $192.3 Mil | 4.0% | 41 | New | 13F |
| Ravenswood Partners LP | $10.2 Mil | 3.8% | 35 | Hold | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southpoint Capital Advisors LP | $192.3 Mil | 4.0% | 41 | New | 13F |
| Crake Asset Management LLP | $64.1 Mil | 2.2% | 20 | New | 13F |
| Hound Partners, LLC | $27.4 Mil | 3.5% | 34 | New | 13F |
| Greenlea Lane Capital Management, LLC | $26.9 Mil | 7.8% | 9 | New | 13F |
| Retail Employees Superannuation Pty Ltd as trustee for Retail Employees Superannuation Trust | $26.8 Mil | 4.0% | 28 | New | 13F |
| Mar Vista Investment Partners LLC | $24.9 Mil | 2.5% | 35 | New | 13F |
| KR Capital LP | $20.5 Mil | 4.1% | 49 | New | 13F |
| Long Walk Management LP | $17.3 Mil | 5.0% | 11 | New | 13F |
| Northern Right Capital Management, L.P. | $13.7 Mil | 4.9% | 25 | New | 13F |
| Eleva Capital SAS | $8.4 Mil | 2.4% | 24 | New | 13F |
| Element Capital Management LLC | $5.8 Mil | 2.3% | 34 | New | 13F |
| BSN CAPITAL PARTNERS Ltd | $138.6 Mil | 6.5% | 41 | ADD +1840.2% | 13F |
| Consulta Ltd | $144.2 Mil | 7.2% | 13 | ADD +100.0% | 13F |
| Warther Private Wealth, LLC | $15.8 Mil | 3.7% | 40 | ADD +89.0% | 13F |
| Teewinot Capital Advisers, L.L.C. | $98.6 Mil | 7.9% | 33 | ADD +51.4% | 13F |
| Alta Park Capital, LP | $47.8 Mil | 7.7% | 24 | ADD +50.9% | 13F |
| Venator Management LLC | $37.2 Mil | 8.9% | 28 | ADD +42.8% | 13F |
| Manchester Global Management (UK) Ltd | $17.8 Mil | 2.4% | 23 | ADD +42.1% | 13F |
| Gobi Capital LLC | $199.2 Mil | 11.6% | 10 | ADD +32.4% | 13F |
| Bowie Capital Management, LLC | $110.8 Mil | 5.2% | 29 | ADD +17.9% | 13F |
| Foxhaven Asset Management, LP | $140.9 Mil | 4.4% | 14 | ADD +8.3% | 13F |
| DSM Capital Partners LLC | $133.1 Mil | 2.4% | 44 | ADD +6.1% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jericho Capital Asset Management L.P. | $406.2 Mil | 4.6% | 25 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| RK Capital Management, LLC/FL | $60.9 Mil | 3.8% | 20 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Capital Impact Advisors, LLC | $29.0 Mil | 2.3% | 30 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Dock Street Asset Management Inc | $22.8 Mil | 2.1% | 47 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Varenne Capital Partners | $22.1 Mil | 4.6% | 24 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| CTC LLC | $19.5 Mil | 1.8% | 38 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Light Street Capital Management, LLC | $18.8 Mil | 2.9% | 24 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Ariose Capital Management Ltd | $17.8 Mil | 6.0% | 14 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Nishkama Capital, LLC | $15.3 Mil | 2.1% | 49 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| FFG Partners, LLC | $11.9 Mil | 3.4% | 39 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Atmos Capital Gestao de Recursos Ltda. | $11.2 Mil | 1.7% | 15 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Promethos Capital, LLC | $8.1 Mil | 2.2% | 43 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Horiko Capital Management LLC | $7.1 Mil | 1.6% | 17 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Islander Capital Partners, L.P. | $19.2 Mil | 7.6% | 15 | TRIM -24.2% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| HS Management Partners, LLC | $19.5 Mil | 6.8% | 24 | TRIM -15.5% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SRS Investment Management, LLC | $1.5 Bil | 15.4% | 29 | Hold | 13F |
| Newlands Management Operations LLC | $644.9 Mil | 4.2% | 16 | Hold | 13F |
| Barton Investment Management | $225.3 Mil | 28.3% | 54 | Hold | 13F |
| Gobi Capital LLC | $199.2 Mil | 11.6% | 10 | ADD +32.4% | 13F |
| Southpoint Capital Advisors LP | $192.3 Mil | 4.0% | 41 | New | 13F |
| Consulta Ltd | $144.2 Mil | 7.2% | 13 | ADD +100.0% | 13F |
| Foxhaven Asset Management, LP | $140.9 Mil | 4.4% | 14 | ADD +8.3% | 13F |
| BSN CAPITAL PARTNERS Ltd | $138.6 Mil | 6.5% | 41 | ADD +1840.2% | 13F |
| DSM Capital Partners LLC | $133.1 Mil | 2.4% | 44 | ADD +6.1% | 13F |
| Bowie Capital Management, LLC | $110.8 Mil | 5.2% | 29 | ADD +17.9% | 13F |
| Mcdonald Capital Investors Inc/Ca | $104.4 Mil | 7.1% | 21 | Hold | 13F |
| Teewinot Capital Advisers, L.L.C. | $98.6 Mil | 7.9% | 33 | ADD +51.4% | 13F |
| Crake Asset Management LLP | $64.1 Mil | 2.2% | 20 | New | 13F |
| Alta Park Capital, LP | $47.8 Mil | 7.7% | 24 | ADD +50.9% | 13F |
| Grace & Mercy Foundation, Inc. | $44.2 Mil | 10.8% | 21 | Hold | 13F |
| Optimus Prime Fund Management Co., Ltd. | $38.5 Mil | 3.7% | 27 | Hold | 13F |
| Venator Management LLC | $37.2 Mil | 8.9% | 28 | ADD +42.8% | 13F |
| ThornTree Capital Partners LP | $28.9 Mil | 5.1% | 16 | Hold | 13F |
| Hound Partners, LLC | $27.4 Mil | 3.5% | 34 | New | 13F |
| Greenlea Lane Capital Management, LLC | $26.9 Mil | 7.8% | 9 | New | 13F |
| Retail Employees Superannuation Pty Ltd as trustee for Retail Employees Superannuation Trust | $26.8 Mil | 4.0% | 28 | New | 13F |
| One Madison Group LLC | $25.0 Mil | 2.9% | 28 | Hold | 13F |
| Mar Vista Investment Partners LLC | $24.9 Mil | 2.5% | 35 | New | 13F |
| Night Owl Capital Management, LLC | $23.5 Mil | 2.7% | 30 | Hold | 13F |
| KR Capital LP | $20.5 Mil | 4.1% | 49 | New | 13F |
NFLX Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Netflix's revenue growth has slowed, but management affirmed its 13-14% full-year 2026 outlook while raising Q3 profit guidance. The business generates substantial free cash flow of $11.2 billion, funding a large stock buyback program. The investment case balances near-term deceleration against a credible plan for layered growth from advertising and new content formats.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Subscription (Recurring Revenue)(Number of Members x Price per Member) + Advertising Revenue Operating leverage achieved by growing revenue from subscriptions and advertising faster than the growth in content and operating expenses.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests a transition to a more durable, multi-stream growth model. Management affirmed its 13-14% full-year revenue growth forecast, supported by a rapidly scaling advertising business and expansion into new content like live programming.
- Management affirmed full-year revenue growth guidance of to 14%.
- Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow is $11.2 billion.
- Trailing-twelve-month operating margin is 29.7%, up from 17.5% three years ago.
- The company is forecasting content expense to increase about 10% in 2026.
- The company has only 5% of global TV view share, indicating a large opportunity.
PRIMARY RISK
Revenue growth has slowed for two straight quarters, from 16.2% to 13.4%, with Q3 guidance implying a further drop to 11% on an FX-neutral basis. Stagnant viewing hour growth of 2% in H1 2026 suggests the core engagement engine is stalling, which could signal market saturation and limit future pricing power.
- Latest-quarter revenue growth of 13.4% is down from 16.2% in the prior quarter.
- Q3 2026 revenue guidance is for 11% FX-neutral growth.
- View hours grew just 2% in the first half of 2026.
- Accounts receivable grew 26.8% in the latest quarter, outpacing revenue growth.
- Operating expenses grew 18.8% year-over-year, faster than revenue growth of 16%.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (Year-over-Year) | 13.4% year-over-year for the quarter ended 6/30/2026 - Decelerating | The year-over-year growth rate has slowed for two consecutive quarters, indicating a clear deceleration in top-line momentum despite positive sequential growth. |
| Engagement (View Hours Growth) | View hours grew 2% in the first half of 2026. - Stagnant | Growth in total viewing hours is stagnant. Management is attempting to shift focus to the 'quality' of engagement and the outsized business impact of new formats like live programming, which generate fewer view hours but drive acquisition. |
| Trailing-Twelve-Month (TTM) Revenue Growth | 16% (As of 6/30/2026) | Indicates the year-over-year growth rate of the entire business over the last four quarters, smoothing out single-quarter volatility. |
| Trailing-Twelve-Month (TTM) Operating Margin | 29.7% (As of 6/30/2026) | Measures the profitability of the core business over the last year. An expanding margin indicates operating leverage and cost discipline. |
| Trailing-Twelve-Month (TTM) Free Cash Flow | $11.2 billion (As of 6/30/2026) | Represents the cash generated by the business after capital expenditures, indicating its ability to fund operations, investments, and shareholder returns. |
Decelerating KPIs vs. Firm Full-Year Guidance
BULL VIEW
Bulls focus on the affirmed 13-14% full-year revenue guidance and rising Q3 profit forecasts. They see the current slowdown as temporary, with new ad and live content initiatives set to re-accelerate growth into a durable, multi-layered model.
CORE TENSION
Can affirmed 13-14% annual guidance overcome market concerns from quarterly revenue growth slowing to a guided 11% FX-neutral?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bulls, cautiously. While KPIs are slowing, management has a strong track record and just raised Q3 profitability guidance, signaling operational control.
BEAR VIEW
Bears see the slowdown from 16.2% to 13.4% quarterly growth and stagnant 2% viewing hour growth as a structural shift. They believe the company is hitting a saturation point and new initiatives won't be enough to offset it.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
10/19/2026 | Decelerating Growth Narrative Watch: Q4 revenue guidance and full-year 2027 outlook. Any guide below the current 2026 trend could confirm fears. |
10/19/2026 | Company Earnings Report Watch: Netflix scheduled to report Q3 2026 earnings. |
10/28/2026 | Peer Comcast Earnings Watch: Peer Comcast (CMCSA) scheduled to report earnings. |
10/28/2026 | Peer Amazon Earnings Watch: Peer Amazon.com (AMZN) scheduled to report earnings. |
11/11/2026 | Engagement Scrutiny Intensifies Watch: Peer reports from Disney (11/11) or WBD (11/4) providing competitive data or narrative on streaming engagement trends. |
November 2026 | Senior Note Matures Watch: A 4.375% Senior Note with $1,000 million principal is scheduled to mature. |
next month | New Lifestyle Content Launch Watch: Netflix will bring on lifestyle content from partners like Conde Nast, Hearst, and People. |
No set date | Content Production Halt Watch: Trade press reports on guild negotiations, announcements of work stoppages, or delays in key production slates. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-07-16 | Q2 Earnings Guidance Update Details: In its July 16 earnings, Netflix provided new higher guidance for Q3 Operating Margin, Operating Income, Net Income, and EPS. | -6.4% $73.68 -> $68.95 |
2026-06-22 | Omnicom AI Ad Partnership Details: Netflix and Omnicom Media announced a collaboration to combine Omnicom's Acxiom audience intelligence with Netflix's AI-powered advertising technology. | -5.9% $77.38 -> $72.82 |
2026-05-21 | iHeartMedia Partnership Deepens Details: Netflix and iHeartMedia announced that the radio show 'The Breakfast Club' will stream live daily on Netflix, starting June 1. | +0.6% $88.09 -> $88.60 |
2026-04-16 | Negative Q1 Earnings Reaction Details: Around the earnings call dated 2026-04-16, the two-day stock reaction was -10.0% versus 1.0% for the S&P 500. | -9.7% $107.71 -> $97.31 |
2026-02-27 | Netflix Abandons WBD Bid Details: Netflix walked away from its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery on February 27, 2026, as Paramount Skydance closed in on a deal. | +14.8% $84.59 -> $97.09 |
2026-01-21 | Q4 Results Beat Expectations Details: The company reported Q4 results with 17.6% revenue growth, but guided for decelerating 12-14% revenue growth in 2026, pressuring the stock. | -4.3% $87.26 -> $83.54 |
2026-01-20 | Post-Earnings Stock Drop Details: The two-day stock reaction around the earnings call dated 2026-01-20 was -3.0%. | -3.0% $88.00 -> $85.36 |
Position Sizing
2% - 4%
REDUCED POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: NFLX trades at roughly 36% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 15% for the S&P 500 (2.4x the market), around the 87th percentile of its own trailing year. A 2% - 4% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
DIS - Walt Disney
Franchise IP & ParksDisney offers exposure to a vast library of globally recognized franchise intellectual property and a diversified business model that includes theme parks, providing a different risk profile than a pure-play streaming service.
AMZN - Amazon.com
Bundled Ecosystem PlayAmazon Prime Video is part of a much larger consumer ecosystem that includes e-commerce and other services, creating higher switching costs and a different monetization model than Netflix's standalone subscription.
A global-scale, direct-to-consumer media company monetizing its massive content production engine through recurring subscriptions and a rapidly growing advertising business.
Netflix has successfully transitioned from a content licensor to a dominant global producer, leveraging its scale to fund a vast slate of original content. This content flywheel drives member retention and pricing power. The company is now layering on new growth vectors—advertising, live events, and gaming—to further monetize its nearly one billion-person audience and expand its share of consumer leisure time.
13 to 14% top line growth, continued operating margin expansion, and successful scaling of the advertising business for 2026.
A sustained deceleration in revenue growth below the company's full-year guidance, margin compression due to uncontrolled content or operating expense growth, or failure of new initiatives like advertising and live events to contribute meaningfully to growth.
The performance of any single title, as management states even the largest hits represent less than 1% of total viewing. Quarterly fluctuations in growth due to the timing of the content slate.
Repricing Catalyst
The market's reaction to the company's ability to sustain its guided 12-14% revenue growth for 2026 and expand margins, particularly as the advertising business scales and new content categories like live sports are introduced.
Single Segment
$46.9B TTM (100% of Total) · 30% MarginWhat It Is
The company sells streaming entertainment services, including TV series, films, games, and live programming, directly to consumers globally.
Who Pays & How
Members pay a monthly fee for on-demand access to a vast and continuously refreshed library of content, including exclusive original productions. They choose Netflix for its convenience, variety, and the cultural relevance of its programming.
Competition
Netflix — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Communication Services Resources |
| Variety |
| The Hollywood Reporter |
| Adweek |
| Movies & Entertainment Resources |
| Deadline |
| IndieWire |
| Screen Daily |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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