AppLovin (APP)
Market Price (8/3/2026): $393.25 | Market Cap: $132.7 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
AppLovin (APP)
Market Price (8/3/2026): $393.25Market Cap: $132.7 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 66% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 77% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 72%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 72%, CFO LTM is 4.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.4 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 5.2 Bil Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, Social Media & Creator Economy, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, Show more. | Short seller reportMuddy Waters Research report on 3/27/2025. Key risksAPP key risks include [1] ongoing government investigations (SEC, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 66% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 77% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 72%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 72%, CFO LTM is 4.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.4 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 5.2 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, Social Media & Creator Economy, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, Show more. |
| Short seller reportMuddy Waters Research report on 3/27/2025. |
| Key risksAPP key risks include [1] ongoing government investigations (SEC, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
AppLovin (APP) stock has lost about 10% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Slowing Momentum in E-commerce Advertising and Valuation Concerns.
Industry data indicated a slowdown in AppLovin's e-commerce advertising business, which intensified fears that customer adoption and ad spending could moderate. This contributed to the stock's decline, culminating in a drop of over 12% on July 13, 2026. Additionally, analysis in June 2026 suggested AppLovin's stock appeared overvalued relative to its fair value.
2. Substantial Insider Selling Activity.
AppLovin experienced significant insider selling by executives and a director during fiscal Q2 2026 (May and June 2026). Notably, director Eduardo Vivas sold approximately $82.62 million in shares on June 18, 2026. CEO Adam Arash Foroughi executed multiple sales totaling over $36 million around June 11-12, 2026. Other substantial sales included Victoria Valenzuela (CALO & Corporate Secretary) for $11.3 million on June 4, 2026, CFO Matthew Stumpf for $5.43 million on May 28, 2026, and CTO Vasily Shikin for $7.70 million on May 22, 2026. Overall, insiders sold roughly 393,000 shares worth about $197.3 million in the quarter preceding July 25, 2026.
Show more
AppLovin (APP) stock has lost about 10% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Slowing Momentum in E-commerce Advertising and Valuation Concerns.
Industry data indicated a slowdown in AppLovin's e-commerce advertising business, which intensified fears that customer adoption and ad spending could moderate. This contributed to the stock's decline, culminating in a drop of over 12% on July 13, 2026. Additionally, analysis in June 2026 suggested AppLovin's stock appeared overvalued relative to its fair value.
2. Substantial Insider Selling Activity.
AppLovin experienced significant insider selling by executives and a director during fiscal Q2 2026 (May and June 2026). Notably, director Eduardo Vivas sold approximately $82.62 million in shares on June 18, 2026. CEO Adam Arash Foroughi executed multiple sales totaling over $36 million around June 11-12, 2026. Other substantial sales included Victoria Valenzuela (CALO & Corporate Secretary) for $11.3 million on June 4, 2026, CFO Matthew Stumpf for $5.43 million on May 28, 2026, and CTO Vasily Shikin for $7.70 million on May 22, 2026. Overall, insiders sold roughly 393,000 shares worth about $197.3 million in the quarter preceding July 25, 2026.
3. Increased Competitive Pressures and Industry Disruptions.
Concerns arose regarding heightened competition, particularly from Meta Platforms, which reportedly planned to compete for untracked ad traffic on Apple's iOS, a key market for AppLovin. Furthermore, Google's "Project Genie," a new AI game creation platform, was perceived as a potential threat to the app-based game ecosystem, a significant revenue source for AppLovin's ad business. Bearish sentiment also suggested that AppLovin's new self-service platform, launched in June 2026, might not sufficiently sustain long-term growth or achieve projected spending targets from new customers.
4. Tempering of Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Expectations.
While AppLovin reported strong fiscal Q1 2026 earnings on May 6, 2026, beating revenue by $0.07 billion and EPS by $0.12, market expectations for fiscal Q2 2026 tempered as the period progressed. The consensus EPS estimate for fiscal Q2 2026 was revised 0.18% lower over the 30 days leading up to July 29, 2026, indicating a slight cooling of analyst sentiment prior to the official earnings release.
Show less
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -11.3% change in APP stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/2/2026 was primarily driven by a -25.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 8022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 446.35 | 395.90 | -11.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,481 | 6,164 | 12.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 60.8% | 64.3% | 5.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 45.3 | 33.7 | -25.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 338 | 337 | 0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -11.3% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| APP | -11.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.9% | 27.3% |
| Sector (XLK) | 9.9% | 21.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -16.3% change in APP stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/2/2026 was primarily driven by a -40.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 8022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 473.11 | 395.90 | -16.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,822 | 6,164 | 27.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 58.7% | 64.3% | 9.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 56.6 | 33.7 | -40.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 339 | 337 | 0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -16.3% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| APP | -16.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.3% | 40.7% |
| Sector (XLK) | 22.0% | 39.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 1.3% change in APP stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 66.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 8022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 390.70 | 395.90 | 1.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,705 | 6,164 | 66.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 51.8% | 64.3% | 24.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 69.2 | 33.7 | -51.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 340 | 337 | 0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 1.3% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| APP | 1.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 19.2% | 38.3% |
| Sector (XLK) | 34.0% | 39.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 1160.8% change in APP stock from 7/31/2023 to 8/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 437.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312023 | 8022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 31.40 | 395.90 | 1160.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,907 | 6,164 | 112.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 4.0 | 21.7 | 437.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 373 | 337 | 10.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 1160.8% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| APP | 1160.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 68.9% | 44.6% |
| Sector (XLK) | 100.3% | 44.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| APP Return | 45% | -89% | 278% | 713% | 108% | -40% | 519% |
| Peers Return | -1% | -62% | 46% | 16% | 48% | -2% | -8% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 98% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| APP Win Rate | 67% | 8% | 83% | 83% | 58% | 29% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 47% | 32% | 63% | 50% | 50% | 49% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| APP Max Drawdown | - | -90% | -27% | -24% | -57% | -46% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -47% | -73% | -45% | -43% | -54% | -47% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: U, TTD, META, APPS, MGNI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/31/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | APP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -55.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 125.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 153 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -20.4% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.6% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 9 days | 18 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -22.4% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 25 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -81.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 442.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 684 days | 427 days |
In The Past
AppLovin's stock fell -55.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 125.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | APP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -55.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 125.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 153 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -20.4% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.6% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 9 days | 18 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -22.4% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 25 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -81.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 442.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 684 days | 427 days |
In The Past
AppLovin's stock fell -55.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 125.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About AppLovin (APP)
AppLovin (APP) is a technology company that provides a comprehensive software-based platform for mobile app developers. Its core mission is to help these developers enhance both the marketing and monetization of their applications across the United States and internationally. Essentially, AppLovin offers the essential tools for developers to efficiently acquire users for their apps and effectively generate revenue from them.
The company's platform includes several key software solutions. For marketing, AppDiscovery is a powerful tool that matches advertiser demand with publisher supply through sophisticated auctions, enabling developers to acquire new users effectively. To support data-driven growth, AppLovin also offers Adjust, an analytics platform that provides marketers with solutions for measuring campaign performance, optimizing strategies, and protecting user data, which is crucial for informed decision-making.
For monetization, AppLovin provides MAX, an in-app bidding software designed to optimize the value of an app's advertising inventory by facilitating real-time competitive auctions among various advertisers. AppLovin's primary clientele includes a wide array of business clients such as advertisers, publishers, and internet platforms, all seeking to leverage its integrated software solutions to thrive in the dynamic mobile app ecosystem.
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Think of it like a **Google for mobile app advertising.**
2. It's like a **Salesforce for mobile app developers.**
AI Analysis | Feedback
- AppDiscovery: A marketing software solution that matches advertiser demand with publisher supply through auctions.
- Adjust: An analytics platform that helps marketers grow their mobile apps with solutions for measuring, optimizing campaigns, and protecting user data.
- MAX: An in-app bidding software that optimizes the value of an app's advertising inventory by running a real-time competitive auction.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AppLovin (APP) sells primarily to other companies, providing a software-based platform for mobile app developers to enhance the marketing and monetization of their apps. Based on the provided information, specific names of major customer companies are not disclosed. Instead, AppLovin's business clients are broadly identified by the following categories:
- Mobile app developers
- Advertisers
- Publishers
- Internet platforms
AI Analysis | Feedback
Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Adam Foroughi, Chief Executive Officer & Co-Founder
Adam Foroughi is the co-founder and Chief Executive Officer of AppLovin. He co-founded AppLovin in 2012, aiming to create a comprehensive platform for mobile app developers. Prior to AppLovin, he founded two other marketing technology companies, Lifestreet Media Inc. and Social Hour Inc. Foroughi began his career as a derivatives trader after graduating from the University of California, Berkeley, with a degree in economics. He led AppLovin through its successful Initial Public Offering (IPO) in April 2021.
Matt Stumpf, Chief Financial Officer
Matt Stumpf is AppLovin's Chief Financial Officer. He joined the company in 2020 as Vice President of Finance, where he was instrumental in building the corporate finance team and guiding the company through its initial public offering.
Herald Chen, Director (Former President & Chief Financial Officer)
Herald Chen serves as a Director on AppLovin's Board, and previously held the roles of President and Chief Financial Officer for AppLovin from November 2019 to December 2023. Prior to joining AppLovin, Mr. Chen was a Partner at the global investment firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. L.P. (KKR), where he led the Technology, Media & Telecom (TMT) industry team from 2007 to 2019. He also previously worked for Goldman Sachs and has extensive board experience, serving on the boards of both public and private technology companies, including GoDaddy, Inc.
Victoria Valenzuela, Chief Administrative & Legal Officer
Victoria Valenzuela has served as AppLovin's Chief Administrative & Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary since July 2025. She initially joined the company as Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary in May 2020 following AppLovin's acquisition of Machine Zone, where she had been the Chief Legal Officer since 2015. Earlier in her career, she served as General Counsel, Vice President, Legal Affairs, and Corporate Secretary of Cypress Semiconductor Corporation from 2004 to 2014.
Basil Shikin, Chief Technology Officer
Basil Shikin is the Chief Technology Officer at AppLovin. He holds a Masters in Mathematics from Saint-Petersburg State University.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to AppLovin's (APP) business primarily stem from regulatory challenges related to data privacy, intense competition in the mobile advertising sector, and ongoing legal issues.
- Regulatory Scrutiny and Data Privacy Concerns: AppLovin faces significant regulatory risk due to investigations by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and several state attorneys general (including Delaware, Oregon, and Connecticut) concerning its data collection practices and alleged violations of platform partners' service agreements and privacy rules. This scrutiny centers on whether AppLovin impermissibly harvested user identifiers for targeted advertising, potentially circumventing privacy restrictions imposed by platforms like Apple (App Tracking Transparency) and Google (Android Privacy Sandbox). Such investigations could result in substantial financial penalties, reputational damage, and mandated alterations to AppLovin's core data-driven business model. The company has already discontinued its "Array" product following allegations of installing apps without proper user consent.
- Intensified Competition and AI Disruption in Mobile Advertising: AppLovin operates in a highly competitive and rapidly evolving mobile advertising landscape. Major technology companies such as Google (AdMob, Ad Manager), Meta (App Ads), and Unity (LevelPlay) are significant competitors, continuously enhancing their AI-powered advertising platforms. There is a growing concern that these larger, vertically integrated ecosystems, with their deeper resources and advanced AI capabilities, could challenge AppLovin's market position, compress its high margins, or reduce the need for intermediaries in digital advertising.
- Class Action Lawsuits and Allegations of Misleading Practices: AppLovin has been subject to multiple class-action lawsuits alleging securities fraud and misleading investors, specifically concerning its AI technology (AXON 2.0) and deceptive advertising practices. Short-seller reports have also accused the company of improper user tracking, a murky business model, and poor data hygiene, which have led to significant stock price declines following their publication. While the company denies many of these allegations, these legal and reputational challenges can impact investor confidence and operational stability.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The increasing control over user data and app functionality by mobile operating system providers (Apple and Google), leading to further restrictions on third-party tracking, targeting, and measurement capabilities. This trend, exemplified by Apple's App Tracking Transparency (ATT) framework and Google's ongoing development of the Privacy Sandbox for Android, directly impacts AppLovin's core business by making personalized advertising and effective attribution more challenging.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- In-App Advertising (AppDiscovery and MAX): The global in-app advertising market was valued at approximately USD 390.5 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 952 billion by 2034, demonstrating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.2% from 2025 to 2034. Other estimates indicate a global market size of USD 387.76 billion in 2025, expected to reach USD 614.74 billion by 2031 at a CAGR of 7.99% from 2026-2031. Asia Pacific holds a significant share of this market, accounting for over 37.6% in 2025. North America also represents a substantial portion, with a 37.78% revenue share in 2025.
- Mobile App Analytics (Adjust): The global mobile app and web analytics market was valued at approximately USD 12.77 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach around USD 58.34 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 16.40% from 2025 to 2034. Another report estimates the global app analytics market at USD 8.22 billion in 2025, projected to reach USD 23.74 billion by 2031, growing at a 19.32% CAGR from 2026-2031.
- Mobile Marketing Platforms (broader category): The global mobile marketing platforms market was valued at USD 43.21 billion in 2026 and is projected to grow to USD 173.74 billion by 2035, at an estimated CAGR of 19% from 2026 to 2035.
- E-commerce Advertising (Future Opportunity): AppLovin's CEO has indicated that the addressable market outside of gaming, which includes e-commerce, could be "5x to 10x the size" of the gaming market.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for AppLovin (APP)
AppLovin (APP) is anticipated to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives and market trends:
- Expansion into E-commerce Advertising: AppLovin is aggressively expanding its presence in the e-commerce advertising market, which CEO Adam Foroughi has indicated could be "five to 10 times bigger than gaming." This expansion involves scaling its self-service platform for e-commerce clients and introducing new generative AI-powered advertising tools, such as 30- to 60-second AI video ads and dynamic product catalogs. The company's AXON ads manager is slated for a global public launch in the first half of 2026, which is expected to further support this push.
- Advancements in AI Technology: The continuous development and deployment of AppLovin's core AI technologies, particularly the AXON platform and its upgraded version, AXON 2, are crucial for future growth. These AI models enhance ad optimization, increase bid density, and improve the value of content discovery, leading to more effective advertising campaigns for clients. The integration of generative AI creative tools is also expected to boost the volume of ad creatives and attract new advertisers.
- Sustained Growth in Mobile Gaming Advertising: The company's foundational mobile gaming advertising business is projected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with management expecting sustained annual growth rates of 20% to 30%. Ongoing technological advancements within its core mobile gaming business continue to contribute significantly to its robust performance.
- Global Expansion of the AXON Platform: AppLovin plans to broaden its reach by opening its web advertising platform to major international markets. Previously, these campaigns were predominantly limited to the United States. This global rollout of the AXON ads manager, targeted for the first half of 2026, is expected to diversify and significantly expand its advertiser base.
- Transition to a Pure Advertising and Self-Service Platform: AppLovin is strategically evolving into a dedicated advertising technology platform, having divested its gaming arm to sharpen its focus. The development of its self-service platform within the AXON ads manager is a key component of this strategy, enabling the company to efficiently manage an increasing number of clients and scale operations without a proportional rise in costs. This strategic pivot is anticipated to enhance profitability and establish more predictable recurring revenue streams.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- AppLovin's Board of Directors increased its share repurchase authorization by $3.2 billion in late October 2025, bringing the total remaining authorization to $3.3 billion.
- The company repurchased and withheld approximately $2.58 billion of its Class A common stock for the full year 2025.
- In February 2024, AppLovin intended to repurchase approximately $570 million of its Class A common stock concurrently with a secondary offering by a selling stockholder.
Share Issuance
- AppLovin became a public company on April 15, 2021, trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker APP.
- In December 2021, an upsized secondary offering of 7,500,000 shares of Class A common stock was priced at $83.00 per share, with all proceeds going to selling stockholders. AppLovin did not offer any shares in this transaction.
- Proceeds from the issuance of common stock upon the exercise of stock options and purchases under the Employee Stock Purchase Plan were $25.329 million for the full year 2025 and $28.8 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024.
Outbound Investments
- AppLovin completed the sale of its mobile gaming business to Tripledot Studios for $400 million in cash and approximately 20% equity in Tripledot, closing on June 30, 2025.
- In January 2022, AppLovin finalized the acquisition of mobile monetization company MoPub from Twitter for $1.1 billion.
- AppLovin acquired mobile app measurement company Adjust in February 2021.
Capital Expenditures
- AppLovin's net capital expenditures were -$11 million in 2021, -$41 million in 2022, -$4 million in 2023, $4.22 million in 2024, and $0.00 million in 2025.
- The company's capital allocation strategy includes capital expenditures to purchase hardware and software, and continued investment in its IT infrastructure to support growth.
- A focus for capital allocation includes expanding its AI capabilities to support the further development of its advertising solutions, such as Axon AI.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 25.51 |
| Mkt Cap | 11.2 |
| Rev LTM | 2,446 |
| Op Inc LTM | 354 |
| FCF LTM | 645 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 499 |
| CFO LTM | 787 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 597 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 15.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 15.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 18.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.1% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 50.5% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 66.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 17.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 30.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 31.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 20.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.8% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| End-to-end advertising solutions including Axon Ads Manager, MAX, Adjust, and Wurl, that allow | 5,481 | 3,224 | |||
| Advertising | 1,842 | 1,049 | 674 | ||
| Apps | 1,441 | 1,768 | 2,119 | ||
| Total | 5,481 | 3,224 | 3,283 | 2,817 | 2,793 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| End-to-end advertising solutions including Axon Ads Manager, MAX, Adjust, and Wurl, that allow | 3,433 | 1,590 |
| Total | 3,433 | 1,590 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $395.90 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 133.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 04/15/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -46.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $489.99 | $519.89 |
| DMA Trend | down | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | -19.2% | -23.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 70.1% | 73.1% |
| Downside Capture | 188.18 | 256.66 |
| Upside Capture | 91.54 | 206.28 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 27.9% | 38.6% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.51 | 1.70 | 1.40 | 2.33 | 2.15 | 2.23 |
| Up Beta | -0.33 | 1.21 | 0.54 | 0.82 | 1.53 | 1.85 |
| Down Beta | 3.49 | 0.88 | 2.05 | 2.37 | 2.55 | 2.19 |
| Up Capture | 111% | 80% | 104% | 325% | 358% | 12801% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 16 | 30 | 62 | 131 | 403 |
| Down Capture | 457% | 288% | 174% | 232% | 163% | 112% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 27 | 33 | 64 | 121 | 349 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with APP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| APP | 9.0% | 73.3% | 0.43 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 33.2% | 25.6% | 1.08 | 39.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 18.8% | 12.9% | 1.07 | 37.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 23.6% | 28.1% | 0.74 | 24.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 30.2% | 19.7% | 1.22 | 1.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.7% | 13.9% | 0.69 | -4.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -46.8% | 43.0% | -1.34 | 30.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with APP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| APP | 43.5% | 78.1% | 0.79 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 18.7% | 25.7% | 0.65 | 48.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.6% | 17.1% | 0.56 | 48.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.1% | 18.5% | 0.75 | 11.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.0% | 19.5% | 0.35 | 8.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.5% | 18.9% | 0.03 | 27.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 13.4% | 53.3% | 0.43 | 26.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with APP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| APP | 19.5% | 77.3% | 0.77 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 23.9% | 24.9% | 0.87 | 47.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.0% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 47.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.3% | 16.1% | 0.57 | 11.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.3% | 18.0% | 0.32 | 8.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 27.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 57.6% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 23.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/8/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/6/2026 | 6.4% | -3.3% | 18.8% |
| 2/11/2026 | -19.7% | -9.8% | 0.4% |
| 11/5/2025 | 0.7% | -5.2% | 11.8% |
| 8/6/2025 | 12.0% | 14.3% | 25.5% |
| 5/7/2025 | 11.9% | 24.1% | 37.7% |
| 2/12/2025 | 24.0% | 18.3% | -23.0% |
| 11/6/2024 | 46.3% | 68.5% | 138.2% |
| 8/7/2024 | 14.2% | 26.0% | 25.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 16 | 14 |
| # Negative | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 20.0% | 23.5% | 29.8% |
| Median Negative | -5.6% | -9.8% | -20.8% |
| Max Positive | 46.3% | 68.5% | 138.2% |
| Max Negative | -19.7% | -25.4% | -31.5% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/6/2026 | 6.4% | -3.3% | 18.8% |
| 2/11/2026 | -19.7% | -9.8% | 0.4% |
| 11/5/2025 | 0.7% | -5.2% | 11.8% |
| 8/6/2025 | 12.0% | 14.3% | 25.5% |
| 5/7/2025 | 11.9% | 24.1% | 37.7% |
| 2/12/2025 | 24.0% | 18.3% | -23.0% |
| 11/6/2024 | 46.3% | 68.5% | 138.2% |
| 8/7/2024 | 14.2% | 26.0% | 25.9% |
| 5/8/2024 | 14.4% | 13.6% | 10.7% |
| 2/14/2024 | 24.8% | 23.3% | 34.7% |
| 11/8/2023 | -1.1% | 0.8% | -6.9% |
| 8/9/2023 | 26.5% | 32.8% | 43.2% |
| 5/10/2023 | 23.5% | 36.9% | 27.2% |
| 2/8/2023 | 27.1% | 33.0% | -2.9% |
| 11/9/2022 | 18.5% | 6.0% | -24.6% |
| 8/10/2022 | -14.8% | -25.4% | -31.5% |
| 5/11/2022 | 34.7% | 33.8% | 32.4% |
| 2/16/2022 | -6.7% | -16.9% | -20.8% |
| 11/10/2021 | 20.0% | 10.1% | -5.3% |
| 8/11/2021 | -2.6% | 9.0% | 32.3% |
| 5/12/2021 | -4.6% | 23.7% | 57.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 16 | 14 |
| # Negative | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 20.0% | 23.5% | 29.8% |
| Median Negative | -5.6% | -9.8% | -20.8% |
| Max Positive | 46.3% | 68.5% | 138.2% |
| Max Negative | -19.7% | -25.4% | -31.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/26/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/12/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/26/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/12/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/13/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/11/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/12/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/13/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/14/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 04/15/2021 | 424B4 |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/8/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Revenue | 1.92 Bil | 1.93 Bil | 1.95 Bil | 9.7% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.76 Bil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 1.61 Bil | 1.63 Bil | 1.65 Bil | 10.1% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.48 Bil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 84.0% | 84.5% | 85.0% | 0.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 84.0% for Q1 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/11/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | 1.75 Bil | 1.76 Bil | 1.77 Bil | 11.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.58 Bil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 1.47 Bil | 1.48 Bil | 1.50 Bil | 13.4% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.30 Bil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 84.0% | 84.0% | 84.0% | 1.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 82.5% for Q4 2025 | |
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/5/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Revenue | 1.57 Bil | 1.58 Bil | 1.60 Bil | 19.2% | Higher New | Actual: 1.33 Bil for Q3 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | 1.29 Bil | 1.30 Bil | 1.32 Bil | 20.8% | Higher New | Actual: 1.08 Bil for Q3 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 Adjusted EBITDA margin | 82.0% | 82.5% | 83.0% | 1.5% | Higher New | Actual: 81.0% for Q3 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 7/17/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Webb, Maynard G JR | See footnote | Sell | 7082026 | 521.29 | 3,076 | 1,603,489 | 62,786,295 | Form | |
| 2 | Vivas, Eduardo | Direct | Sell | 6182026 | 504.06 | 163,910 | 82,620,804 | 3,420,104,698 | Form | |
| 3 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 494.98 | 22,544 | 11,158,868 | 1,152,161,086 | Form |
| 4 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 482.02 | 19,123 | 9,217,638 | 1,132,853,178 | Form |
| 5 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 486.95 | 33,042 | 16,089,894 | 1,153,762,043 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Webb, Maynard G JR | See footnote | Sell | 7082026 | 521.29 | 3,076 | 1,603,489 | 62,786,295 | Form | |
| 2 | Vivas, Eduardo | Direct | Sell | 6182026 | 504.06 | 163,910 | 82,620,804 | 3,420,104,698 | Form | |
| 3 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 494.98 | 22,544 | 11,158,868 | 1,152,161,086 | Form |
| 4 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 482.02 | 19,123 | 9,217,638 | 1,132,853,178 | Form |
| 5 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 486.95 | 33,042 | 16,089,894 | 1,153,762,043 | Form |
| 6 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 476.30 | 8,624 | 4,107,570 | 1,144,248,392 | Form |
| 7 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO | See footnote | Sell | 6122026 | 503.91 | 20,833 | 10,497,933 | 1,492,670,771 | Form |
| 8 | Valenzuela, Victoria | CALO & Corp. Secretary | Direct | Sell | 6082026 | 565.89 | 20,000 | 11,317,856 | 138,055,767 | Form |
| 9 | Webb, Maynard G JR | See footnote | Sell | 6052026 | 582.04 | 3,076 | 1,790,365 | 71,893,973 | Form | |
| 10 | Stumpf, Matthew | Chief Financial Officer (CFO) | Direct | Sell | 5292026 | 600.00 | 9,052 | 5,431,200 | 106,470,000 | Form |
| 11 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | See footnote | Sell | 5272026 | 488.90 | 2,889 | 1,412,419 | 8,773,232 | Form |
| 12 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | See footnote | Sell | 5272026 | 483.99 | 15,915 | 7,702,632 | 8,685,123 | Form |
| 13 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 484.42 | 62,804 | 30,423,333 | 1,545,164,196 | Form |
| 14 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | See footnote | Sell | 5272026 | 483.67 | 8,112 | 3,923,494 | 9,095,330 | Form |
| 15 | Vivas, Eduardo | Direct | Sell | 3202026 | 458.67 | 20,910 | 9,590,790 | 3,262,236,366 | Form | |
| 16 | Vivas, Eduardo | Direct | Sell | 3182026 | 453.49 | 163,910 | 74,331,211 | 3,160,530,907 | Form | |
| 17 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | See footnote | Sell | 3122026 | 513.65 | 204 | 104,784 | 13,825,790 | Form |
| 18 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | See footnote | Sell | 3122026 | 490.89 | 5,685 | 2,790,708 | 13,313,420 | Form |
| 19 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | See footnote | Sell | 3122026 | 489.05 | 6,531 | 3,193,985 | 13,163,756 | Form |
| 20 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | See footnote | Sell | 3122026 | 486.31 | 9,265 | 4,505,626 | 13,089,900 | Form |
| 21 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 486.43 | 62,804 | 30,549,692 | 1,583,459,455 | Form |
| 22 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | See footnote | Sell | 3122026 | 477.47 | 5,231 | 2,497,651 | 14,638,307 | Form |
| 23 | Valenzuela, Victoria | CALO & Corp. Secretary | Direct | Sell | 12192025 | 657.13 | 7,609 | 5,000,102 | 182,097,294 | Form |
| 24 | Harvey, Dawson Alyssa | Direct | Sell | 12102025 | 693.32 | 150 | 103,998 | 1,961,402 | Form | |
| 25 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | See footnote | Sell | 11262025 | 549.09 | 15,540 | 8,532,891 | 19,706,366 | Form |
| 26 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | See footnote | Sell | 11262025 | 548.45 | 14,708 | 8,066,634 | 19,683,399 | Form |
| 27 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | See footnote | Sell | 11262025 | 546.93 | 14,867 | 8,131,244 | 19,628,857 | Form |
| 28 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 11262025 | 559.87 | 2,857 | 1,599,539 | 1,859,218,377 | Form |
| 29 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | See footnote | Sell | 11262025 | 538.10 | 7,385 | 3,973,895 | 24,754,917 | Form |
| 30 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 11262025 | 545.38 | 27,143 | 14,803,141 | 1,812,655,869 | Form |
| 31 | Stumpf, Matthew | Chief Financial Officer (CFO) | Direct | Sell | 11242025 | 515.76 | 4,884 | 2,518,953 | 98,592,451 | Form |
| 32 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO & Chairperson | See footnote | Sell | 11242025 | 517.11 | 15,931 | 8,238,139 | 1,542,559,090 | Form |
| 33 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO & Chairperson | Direct | Sell | 11242025 | 520.29 | 30,888 | 16,070,827 | 1,328,393,160 | Form |
| 34 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO & Chairperson | See footnote | Sell | 11242025 | 497.50 | 4,069 | 2,024,347 | 1,491,991,002 | Form |
| 35 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO & Chairperson | Direct | Sell | 11242025 | 502.48 | 17,112 | 8,598,515 | 1,298,444,658 | Form |
| 36 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO & Chairperson | See footnote | Sell | 11242025 | 556.56 | 8,582 | 4,776,368 | 1,671,348,518 | Form |
| 37 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO & Chairperson | See footnote | Sell | 11242025 | 532.62 | 18,918 | 10,076,066 | 1,604,031,619 | Form |
| 38 | Harvey, Dawson Alyssa | Direct | Sell | 11132025 | 589.18 | 200 | 117,836 | 1,755,167 | Form | |
| 39 | Vivas, Eduardo | Direct | Sell | 11132025 | 650.91 | 150,000 | 97,636,465 | 4,643,129,577 | Form | |
| 40 | Billings, Craig Scott | Direct | Sell | 11072025 | 592.92 | 2,350 | 1,393,368 | 2,197,965 | Form | |
| 41 | Harvey, Dawson Alyssa | Direct | Sell | 9052025 | 487.97 | 350 | 170,790 | 1,537,106 | Form | |
| 42 | Valenzuela, Victoria | CALO & Corp. Secretary | Direct | Sell | 9052025 | 502.23 | 35,000 | 17,578,120 | 135,580,037 | Form |
| 43 | Valenzuela, Victoria | CALO & Corp. Secretary | Direct | Sell | 8272025 | 450.00 | 15,000 | 6,750,000 | 137,229,750 | Form |
| 44 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | See footnote | Sell | 8222025 | 438.22 | 17,012 | 7,455,073 | 23,396,362 | Form |
| 45 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | See footnote | Sell | 8222025 | 437.03 | 17,924 | 7,833,356 | 23,332,685 | Form |
| 46 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | See footnote | Sell | 8222025 | 437.48 | 17,564 | 7,683,886 | 23,356,582 | Form |
| 47 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 8222025 | 437.57 | 30,000 | 13,127,047 | 1,470,274,753 | Form |
| 48 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO & Chairperson | Direct | Sell | 8222025 | 440.23 | 26,200 | 11,534,004 | 1,140,217,267 | Form |
| 49 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO & Chairperson | Direct | Sell | 8222025 | 418.09 | 3,800 | 1,588,756 | 1,093,839,274 | Form |
| 50 | Valenzuela, Victoria | CALO & Corp. Secretary | Direct | Sell | 8222025 | 416.71 | 16,599 | 6,917,026 | 133,329,549 | Form |
| 51 | Stumpf, Matthew | Chief Financial Officer (CFO) | Direct | Sell | 8222025 | 416.18 | 4,874 | 2,028,453 | 75,601,687 | Form |
| 52 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO & Chairperson | See footnote | Sell | 8222025 | 421.94 | 3,601 | Form | ||
| 53 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO & Chairperson | Direct | Sell | 8222025 | 421.04 | 90,000 | 37,893,588 | 1,103,147,188 | Form |
| 54 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO & Chairperson | See footnote | Sell | 8222025 | 420.18 | 370 | 155,467 | 170,173 | Form |
| 55 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO & Chairperson | See footnote | Sell | 8222025 | 407.57 | 557 | 227,016 | 318,128,231 | Form |
| 56 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO & Chairperson | See footnote | Sell | 8222025 | 406.57 | 9,706 | Form | ||
| 57 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO & Chairperson | See footnote | Sell | 8222025 | 404.28 | 15,042 | Form | ||
| 58 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO & Chairperson | See footnote | Sell | 8222025 | 404.59 | 15,660 | Form | ||
| 59 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO & Chairperson | See footnote | Sell | 8222025 | 402.11 | 12,529 | Form | ||
| 60 | Chen, Herald Y | See footnote | Sell | 8182025 | 436.08 | 49,800 | 21,716,634 | 61,050,778 | Form | |
| 61 | Chen, Herald Y | Direct | Sell | 8182025 | 436.61 | 50,000 | 21,830,330 | 79,431,402 | Form | |
| 62 | Chen, Herald Y | See footnote | Sell | 8182025 | 424.19 | 200 | 84,837 | 80,510,313 | Form | |
| 63 | Chen, Herald Y | Direct | Sell | 8182025 | 432.49 | 200,000 | 86,497,959 | 78,682,436 | Form | |
| 64 | Chen, Herald Y | Direct | Sell | 8142025 | 457.93 | 32,991 | 15,107,577 | 174,896,844 | Form | |
| 65 | Chen, Herald Y | Direct | Sell | 8142025 | 446.53 | 167,009 | 74,575,231 | 185,275,972 | Form | |
| 66 | Chen, Herald Y | Direct | Sell | 8142025 | 464.69 | 200,000 | 92,938,609 | 177,479,750 | Form | |
| 67 | Vivas, Eduardo | Direct | Sell | 8142025 | 466.00 | 125,000 | 58,249,976 | 3,394,012,804 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Aug 3, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kensico Capital Management Corp | $1.3 Bil | 26.7% | 20 | ADD +5.3% | 13F |
| Spruce House Investment Management LLC | $712.4 Mil | 25.4% | 11 | Hold | 13F |
| Augustine Asset Management Inc | $106.3 Mil | 23.9% | 112 | Hold | 13F |
| Greenstone Partners & Co., LLC | $77.7 Mil | 19.7% | 9 | Hold | 13F |
| Panview Capital Ltd | $87.4 Mil | 18.7% | 12 | ADD +133.8% | 13F |
| Keenan Capital, LLC | $76.1 Mil | 16.1% | 9 | ADD +8.2% | 13F |
| 3G Capital Partners LP | $37.8 Mil | 13.4% | 10 | Hold | 13F |
| Dorsey Asset Management, LLC | $126.1 Mil | 10.0% | 11 | New | 13F |
| Jericho Capital Asset Management L.P. | $667.5 Mil | 9.9% | 23 | TRIM -20.0% | 13F |
| Selkirk Management LLC | $19.4 Mil | 6.6% | 11 | ADD +36.4% | 13F |
| Proem Advisors LLC | $15.3 Mil | 5.1% | 29 | ADD +1440.0% | 13F |
| Infinitum Asset Management, LLC | $39.8 Mil | 5.0% | 21 | New | 13F |
| No Street GP LP | $72.0 Mil | 4.8% | 31 | ADD +27.9% | 13F |
| Spyglass Capital Management LLC | $66.3 Mil | 4.7% | 25 | ADD +38.1% | 13F |
| Lone Pine Capital LLC | $583.0 Mil | 4.6% | 36 | ADD +87.7% | 13F |
| Whale Rock Capital Management LLC | $276.8 Mil | 3.6% | 35 | TRIM -14.0% | 13F |
| KCM Capital Inc | $15.9 Mil | 3.0% | 31 | TRIM -20.0% | 13F |
| Blue Whale Capital LLP | $59.3 Mil | 2.8% | 26 | ADD +43.5% | 13F |
| Ratan Capital Management LP | $7.2 Mil | 2.7% | 37 | TRIM -57.1% | 13F |
| D1 Capital Partners L.P. | $266.4 Mil | 2.4% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Palestra Capital Management LLC | $50.1 Mil | 2.0% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| KADENSA CAPITAL Ltd | $11.9 Mil | 1.7% | 39 | New | 13F |
| UNICOM Systems, Inc. | $12.7 Mil | 1.3% | 32 | Hold | 13F |
| Kinetic Partners Management, LP | $22.2 Mil | 1.2% | 49 | TRIM -37.4% | 13F |
| Dorsal Capital Management, LP | $29.9 Mil | 1.2% | 25 | TRIM -25.0% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorsey Asset Management, LLC | $126.1 Mil | 10.0% | 11 | New | 13F |
| Infinitum Asset Management, LLC | $39.8 Mil | 5.0% | 21 | New | 13F |
| KADENSA CAPITAL Ltd | $11.9 Mil | 1.7% | 39 | New | 13F |
| Shannon River Fund Management LLC | $5.8 Mil | 1.1% | 28 | New | 13F |
| Proem Advisors LLC | $15.3 Mil | 5.1% | 29 | ADD +1440.0% | 13F |
| Panview Capital Ltd | $87.4 Mil | 18.7% | 12 | ADD +133.8% | 13F |
| Lone Pine Capital LLC | $583.0 Mil | 4.6% | 36 | ADD +87.7% | 13F |
| Blue Whale Capital LLP | $59.3 Mil | 2.8% | 26 | ADD +43.5% | 13F |
| Spyglass Capital Management LLC | $66.3 Mil | 4.7% | 25 | ADD +38.1% | 13F |
| Selkirk Management LLC | $19.4 Mil | 6.6% | 11 | ADD +36.4% | 13F |
| No Street GP LP | $72.0 Mil | 4.8% | 31 | ADD +27.9% | 13F |
| Keenan Capital, LLC | $76.1 Mil | 16.1% | 9 | ADD +8.2% | 13F |
| WT Asset Management Ltd | $32.3 Mil | 0.7% | 32 | ADD +7.7% | 13F |
| Kensico Capital Management Corp | $1.3 Bil | 26.7% | 20 | ADD +5.3% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ieq Capital, LLC | $10.6 Bil | 31.6% | 2233 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Durable Capital Partners LP | $110.1 Mil | 1.0% | 40 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Broad Bay Capital Management, LP | $67.5 Mil | 7.7% | 28 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| FengHe Fund Management Pte. Ltd. | $63.3 Mil | 3.6% | 38 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| MGB Wealth Management, LLC | $54.5 Mil | 15.6% | 308 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Alta Park Capital, LP | $35.2 Mil | 4.2% | 34 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Science & Technology Partners, L.P. | $30.2 Mil | 8.4% | 24 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Nishkama Capital, LLC | $24.3 Mil | 3.3% | 49 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Ogborne Capital Management, LLC | $20.2 Mil | 6.7% | 11 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Thames Capital Management LLC | $12.6 Mil | 1.8% | 48 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Insight Holdings Group, LLC | $8.3 Mil | 0.6% | 30 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| VMS Asset Management Limited | $6.7 Mil | 2.6% | 42 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Castle Hook Partners LP | $6.0 Mil | 0.1% | 44 | TRIM -96.2% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Ratan Capital Management LP | $7.2 Mil | 2.7% | 37 | TRIM -57.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Kinetic Partners Management, LP | $22.2 Mil | 1.2% | 49 | TRIM -37.4% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Dorsal Capital Management, LP | $29.9 Mil | 1.2% | 25 | TRIM -25.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| KCM Capital Inc | $15.9 Mil | 3.0% | 31 | TRIM -20.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Jericho Capital Asset Management L.P. | $667.5 Mil | 9.9% | 23 | TRIM -20.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Fernbridge Capital Management LP | $13.8 Mil | 0.9% | 17 | TRIM -18.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Whale Rock Capital Management LLC | $276.8 Mil | 3.6% | 35 | TRIM -14.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kensico Capital Management Corp | $1.3 Bil | 26.7% | 20 | ADD +5.3% | 13F |
| Spruce House Investment Management LLC | $712.4 Mil | 25.4% | 11 | Hold | 13F |
| Jericho Capital Asset Management L.P. | $667.5 Mil | 9.9% | 23 | TRIM -20.0% | 13F |
| Lone Pine Capital LLC | $583.0 Mil | 4.6% | 36 | ADD +87.7% | 13F |
| Whale Rock Capital Management LLC | $276.8 Mil | 3.6% | 35 | TRIM -14.0% | 13F |
| D1 Capital Partners L.P. | $266.4 Mil | 2.4% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Dorsey Asset Management, LLC | $126.1 Mil | 10.0% | 11 | New | 13F |
| Augustine Asset Management Inc | $106.3 Mil | 23.9% | 112 | Hold | 13F |
| Panview Capital Ltd | $87.4 Mil | 18.7% | 12 | ADD +133.8% | 13F |
| Greenstone Partners & Co., LLC | $77.7 Mil | 19.7% | 9 | Hold | 13F |
| Keenan Capital, LLC | $76.1 Mil | 16.1% | 9 | ADD +8.2% | 13F |
| No Street GP LP | $72.0 Mil | 4.8% | 31 | ADD +27.9% | 13F |
| Spyglass Capital Management LLC | $66.3 Mil | 4.7% | 25 | ADD +38.1% | 13F |
| Blue Whale Capital LLP | $59.3 Mil | 2.8% | 26 | ADD +43.5% | 13F |
| Palestra Capital Management LLC | $50.1 Mil | 2.0% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| Infinitum Asset Management, LLC | $39.8 Mil | 5.0% | 21 | New | 13F |
| 3G Capital Partners LP | $37.8 Mil | 13.4% | 10 | Hold | 13F |
| WT Asset Management Ltd | $32.3 Mil | 0.7% | 32 | ADD +7.7% | 13F |
| Dorsal Capital Management, LP | $29.9 Mil | 1.2% | 25 | TRIM -25.0% | 13F |
| Kinetic Partners Management, LP | $22.2 Mil | 1.2% | 49 | TRIM -37.4% | 13F |
| Selkirk Management LLC | $19.4 Mil | 6.6% | 11 | ADD +36.4% | 13F |
| KCM Capital Inc | $15.9 Mil | 3.0% | 31 | TRIM -20.0% | 13F |
| Proem Advisors LLC | $15.3 Mil | 5.1% | 29 | ADD +1440.0% | 13F |
| Fernbridge Capital Management LP | $13.8 Mil | 0.9% | 17 | TRIM -18.0% | 13F |
| UNICOM Systems, Inc. | $12.7 Mil | 1.3% | 32 | Hold | 13F |
APP Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
AppLovin's AI-driven ad platform shows exceptional profitability, with 77.1% operating margins and 66.4% TTM revenue growth. Conviction is tempered by uncertainty over its crucial expansion into e-commerce, with conflicting data on recent performance. The upcoming Q2 earnings report is the key catalyst to confirm if this new growth vector is on track.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Transactional Marketplace / PlatformRevenue = (Ad Impressions) x (Conversion Rate) x (Price per Conversion). The key lever is increasing the Conversion Rate through improvements to the Axon AI engine. Operating Leverage. The business model exhibits extremely high flow-through, with incremental revenue converting to adjusted EBITDA at a rate of 86% in the most recent quarter.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests yes. The platform's expansion into the 'consumer vertical' is growing faster than its core gaming business, with April ad spend hitting a record high and Q2 advertiser budget share increasing.
- The 'consumer vertical' is growing even faster than the core gaming business.
- April consumer ad spend reached a record, higher than any peak Q4 month.
- A Q2 2026 survey showed advertiser budget share increased to 11.1%.
- Trailing-twelve-month revenue growth accelerated to 66.4% from 52.1% one quarter earlier.
- The company raised Q2 2026 revenue guidance after its last report.
PRIMARY RISK
A July analyst note reported softer-than-expected e-commerce ad growth for June, causing the stock to fall 12.65%. This suggests the platform may be struggling to compete against entrenched players outside its core gaming expertise, potentially capping the company's growth runway and justifying the stock's -46.6% distance from its 52-week high.
- An analyst note reported softer-than-expected e-commerce ad growth for June 2026.
- The stock trades -46.6% away from its 52-week high, indicating market skepticism.
- The 'consumer vertical' is described by management as a '1.5-years-old product'.
- Competition includes deeply entrenched, large-scale companies like Meta and Google.
- The stock reacted -22.0% to a prior earnings report, showing high sensitivity.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (YoY) | 59% year-over-year for the quarter ended 6/30/2026 - Decelerating | Year-over-year revenue growth is decelerating from exceptionally high levels but remains robust. The most recent quarter still showed strong positive sequential growth of 11.1%, though management notes sequential moves can be seasonal. |
| Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 85% for the quarter ended 3/31/2026 - Accelerating | The Adjusted EBITDA margin has consistently expanded over the last three reported quarters, demonstrating significant operating leverage. The company guided for a margin of approximately 84% to 85% for the second quarter of 2026. |
| Trailing-twelve-month (TTM) Revenue Growth | 66.4% year-over-year (As of 6/30/2026) | Indicates the top-line growth momentum of the entire advertising platform over the last year. |
| Trailing-twelve-month (TTM) Operating Margin | 77.1% (As of 6/30/2026) | Measures the core profitability and operating leverage of the business model, showing how much profit is generated from each dollar of revenue before interest and taxes. |
| Latest-quarter Revenue Growth | 59% year-over-year (For the quarter ended 6/30/2026) | Provides the most recent snapshot of the company's growth trajectory, which can be compared to prior quarters to assess acceleration or deceleration. |
E-commerce Growth vs. Execution Risk
BULL VIEW
Bulls focus on the AI engine's proven power, citing record April consumer ad spend and a Q2 survey showing increased advertiser budget share. The June self-serve launch will accelerate adoption and prove the model's versatility.
CORE TENSION
Can record April consumer spend and Q2 share gains overcome reported June softness and prove the e-commerce expansion is durable?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The evidence is split. While management's last update was bullish, the more recent analyst note creates uncertainty. The upcoming August 5 earnings report will be the deciding factor.
BEAR VIEW
Bears see the recent analyst report of June softness as the first sign of failure. They believe the gaming-focused AI cannot displace incumbents like Meta in the broader consumer market, limiting the company's long-term growth potential.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
August 5, 2026 | Disappointing Consumer Vertical Growth Watch: Management commentary on the consumer vertical's Q2 growth trajectory, specifically addressing the reported June softness. |
August 5, 2026 | Faltering Self-Serve Platform Adoption Watch: Metrics or qualitative updates on new advertiser count, spend from new cohorts, and onboarding success rates. |
Wednesday, August 5, 2026 | Q2 2026 Earnings Report Watch: AppLovin is scheduled to report financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. |
11/2/2026 | Peer Digital Turbine Earnings Watch: Peer Digital Turbine (APPS) is scheduled to report earnings. |
11/3/2026 | Competitor AI Advancements Watch: Unity's 'a recently discussed product' revenue growth and commentary on market share gains or technological advantages from its new data. |
11/3/2026 | Q3 2026 Earnings Report Watch: AppLovin is scheduled to report its next earnings, alongside peers Magnite (MGNI) and Unity Software (U). |
11/4/2026 | Peer Trade Desk Earnings Watch: Peer Trade Desk (TTD) is scheduled to report earnings. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-07-23 | Investor Investigation Launched Details: A law firm began investigating claims of securities fraud after an analyst note reported softer e-commerce ad growth in June, causing the stock to fall 12.65%. | -5.0% $412.48 -> $391.98 |
2026-07-10 | Report Suggests E-commerce Share Gains Details: A July survey of advertisers indicated AppLovin's share of e-commerce ad budgets increased by 169 basis points from Q4 2025, reaching 11.1% in Q2 2026. | -14.9% $520.43 -> $442.85 |
2026-05-22 | Launches Social Media App Details: Following an attempt to acquire TikTok, the company quietly launched its own social media challenger app called Gist. | +5.8% $485.89 -> $514.24 |
2026-05-06 | Axon Platform Public Launch Details: Management stated on its May 6 earnings call that it was on track to open its Axon self-serve advertising platform to the public in June. | +4.3% $478.11 -> $498.87 |
2026-05-06 | Reports Beat-and-Raise Q1 Results Details: Reported Q1 revenue of $1.84 billion, up 59% YoY. Management raised Q2 guidance for revenue by 9.7% and Adjusted EBITDA by 10.1%, leading to a 4.0% positive stock reaction. | +4.3% $478.11 -> $498.87 |
2026-04-07 | Leadership Succession Plans Announced Details: The company announced succession plans for key leadership roles and the appointment of a new independent Chairperson for its Board of Directors. | -5.2% $412.68 -> $391.20 |
2026-02-11 | Negative Reaction to Strong Earnings Details: The company reported strong Q4 2025 results, but the stock had a two-day reaction of -22.0% around the February 11, 2026 earnings call, suggesting a market disconnect. | -22.4% $472.92 -> $366.91 |
Position Sizing
2% - 4%
REDUCED POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: APP trades at roughly 70% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 15% for the S&P 500 (4.7x the market), around the 73rd percentile of its own trailing year. A 2% - 4% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
META - Meta Platforms
Diversified Ad-Tech LeaderMeta offers exposure to the global digital advertising market beyond gaming, with massive scale, a more diversified customer base, and deep infrastructure investment, with capex at 35.2% of revenue.
U - Unity Software
Direct Gaming Ad-Tech PeerUnity provides exposure to the gaming ecosystem through its widely used game development engine, offering a different angle on the same end market with potential data advantages from its runtime.
AppLovin is a high-margin, AI-driven advertising engine that profits by delivering measurable return-on-spend, now leveraging its dominance in mobile gaming to capture the broader e-commerce market.
AppLovin built a highly profitable advertising platform, Axon, by mastering the mobile gaming ecosystem. Its core advantage is an AI engine that optimizes ad spend for performance, creating a virtuous cycle where better returns attract more advertiser budget. Having proven this model, AppLovin is now opening its platform to the much larger e-commerce ('consumer') vertical, which is growing rapidly and represents the next major growth vector, with a full self-serve launch in June 2026.
Continued rapid growth in the 'consumer' vertical, evidence of successful advertiser acquisition following the June self-serve launch, and sustained high operating margins.
A significant slowdown in the consumer vertical, signs of cannibalization of the core gaming business, or an analyst note in July raising concerns over e-commerce ad growth.
Short-term stock price volatility and general market discussions about AI making game creation easier, which management views as a net positive for its discovery platform.
Repricing Catalyst
The full public launch of the Axon Ads Manager self-serve platform in June 2026, which opens the platform to all advertisers globally for the first time.
End-to-end advertising solutions
$5.5B TTM (100% of Total)What It Is
The segment provides a comprehensive suite of advertising technologies to a globally diverse customer base of advertisers and mobile app publishers. Products include Axon Ads Manager, MAX, Adjust, and Wurl, which help businesses with user acquisition, monetization, and analytics.
Who Pays & How
Advertisers pay to automate their marketing and monetization efforts, enabling them to find and attract high-value users for their apps and websites at a global scale while targeting specific return on ad spend goals.
Competition
Industry Resources
| Information Technology Resources |
| TechCrunch |
| Wired |
| CIO |
| MIT Technology Review |
| Gartner Insights |
| Ars Technica |
| Application Software Resources |
| Capterra |
| Software Advice |
| InfoWorld |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.