Tearsheet

Trade Desk (TTD)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $39.9 | Market Cap: $19.5 Bil
Sector: Communication Services | Industry: Advertising

Trade Desk (TTD)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $39.9
Market Cap: $19.5 Bil
Sector: Communication Services
Industry: Advertising

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -94%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -92%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 8.6x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 45x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 55x
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.3%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Advertising, and Social Media & Creator Economy. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, Programmatic Advertising, Show more.
  
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Advertising, and Social Media & Creator Economy. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, Programmatic Advertising, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -94%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -92%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 8.6x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 45x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 55x
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.3%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

TTD Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining why The Trade Desk (TTD) stock moved by -28% from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025: 1. The Trade Desk's Q2 2025 earnings guidance and competitive fears led to a stock tumble. The stock plunged on August 8, 2025, following the company's Q2 earnings report, as its guidance for revenue deceleration fueled investor concerns about The Trade Desk's ability to compete effectively. This sentiment was reinforced by Moffett Nathanson downgrading TTD from a "neutral" to a "sell" rating on the same day.

2. Analyst downgrades and reduced price targets reflected a more cautious outlook. Morgan Stanley downgraded The Trade Desk from an "overweight" to an "equal weight" rating and lowered its price target from $80.00 to $50.00 on September 10, 2025. These analyst revisions indicated a less optimistic view on the company's future performance.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
TTD Return208%14%-51%61%63%-67%51%
Peers Return28%17%-46%81%67%11%170%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
TTD Win Rate83%50%25%67%67%40% 
Peers Win Rate45%52%33%75%68%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
TTD Max Drawdown-44%-39%-56%-6%-11%-67% 
Peers Max Drawdown-15%-7%-52%-5%-4%-25% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GOOGL, AMZN, META, VZ, DSP. See TTD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventTTDS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-64.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven179.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven695 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-54.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven118.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven50 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-35.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven55.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven91 days120 days

Compare to GOOGL, AMZN, META, VZ, DSP


In The Past

Trade Desk's stock fell -64.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/16/2021. A -64.3% loss requires a 179.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Trade Desk (TTD)

Better Bets than Trade Desk (TTD)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to TTD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PINS_11302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11302025PINSPinterestMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.9%4.9%0.0%
TMUS_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025TMUST-Mobile USMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.0%0.0%-1.2%
Z_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ZZillowMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
6.8%6.8%0.0%
IRDM_11072025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11072025IRDMIridium CommunicationsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
2.1%2.1%-5.6%
TTD_10032025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10032025TTDTrade DeskDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-25.1%-25.1%-25.6%
TTD_3312025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE03312025TTDTrade DeskDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.3%-29.4%-29.9%
TTD_5312022_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE05312022TTDTrade DeskDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-6.5%34.6%-23.4%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PINS_11302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11302025PINSPinterestMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.9%4.9%0.0%
TMUS_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025TMUST-Mobile USMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.0%0.0%-1.2%
Z_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ZZillowMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
6.8%6.8%0.0%
IRDM_11072025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11072025IRDMIridium CommunicationsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
2.1%2.1%-5.6%
TTD_10032025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10032025TTDTrade DeskDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-25.1%-25.1%-25.6%
TTD_3312025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE03312025TTDTrade DeskDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.3%-29.4%-29.9%
TTD_5312022_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE05312022TTDTrade DeskDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-6.5%34.6%-23.4%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Trade Desk

Peers to compare with:

Financials

TTDGOOGLAMZNMETAVZDSPMedian
NameTrade De.Alphabet Amazon.c.Meta Pla.Verizon .Viant Te. 
Mkt Price39.35317.62229.11661.5341.2611.25135.19
Mkt Cap19.23,838.82,437.01,665.1174.40.2919.8
Rev LTM2,791385,477670,038189,457137,491318163,474
Op Inc LTM528124,07776,19081,89531,676553,933
FCF LTM67873,55213,48144,84120,6493317,065
FCF 3Y Avg60068,99821,67745,04416,0522218,864
CFO LTM881151,424121,137107,57438,4555073,014
CFO 3Y Avg731120,99096,97785,51337,1173761,315

Growth & Margins

TTDGOOGLAMZNMETAVZDSPMedian
NameTrade De.Alphabet Amazon.c.Meta Pla.Verizon .Viant Te. 
Rev Chg LTM20.8%13.4%10.9%21.3%2.4%30.9%17.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg23.5%11.0%11.3%17.3%0.5%13.4%12.3%
Rev Chg Q17.7%15.9%13.3%26.2%1.5%18.2%16.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM4.2%3.8%3.0%6.0%0.4%3.9%3.9%
Op Mgn LTM18.9%32.2%11.4%43.2%23.0%1.6%21.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg14.6%29.9%7.9%37.4%21.9%-7.0%18.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.2%-0.5%0.3%-0.8%1.5%0.2%0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM31.6%39.3%18.1%56.8%28.0%15.7%29.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg32.0%35.3%15.8%54.0%27.4%14.0%29.7%
FCF/Rev LTM24.3%19.1%2.0%23.7%15.0%10.2%17.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg26.6%20.5%3.5%29.0%11.8%8.2%16.2%

Valuation

TTDGOOGLAMZNMETAVZDSPMedian
NameTrade De.Alphabet Amazon.c.Meta Pla.Verizon .Viant Te. 
Mkt Cap19.23,838.82,437.01,665.1174.40.2919.8
P/S8.67.63.59.81.40.75.6
P/EBIT45.319.327.421.75.741.524.6
P/E54.523.633.131.69.489.932.3
P/CFO27.119.419.317.24.84.218.2
Total Yield1.8%4.6%3.0%3.5%16.8%1.1%3.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.3%0.0%0.3%6.1%0.0%0.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg1.8%3.3%1.1%3.6%9.5%13.5%3.5%
D/E0.00.00.10.00.90.10.0
Net D/E-0.0-0.00.00.00.9-0.7-0.0

Returns

TTDGOOGLAMZNMETAVZDSPMedian
NameTrade De.Alphabet Amazon.c.Meta Pla.Verizon .Viant Te. 
1M Rtn-16.7%14.4%-8.1%5.5%4.9%32.4%5.2%
3M Rtn-24.2%36.9%-2.8%-11.6%-5.0%11.8%-3.9%
6M Rtn-44.7%89.2%10.2%-3.2%-1.5%-18.1%-2.4%
12M Rtn-71.8%83.0%5.0%8.1%3.7%-44.1%4.4%
3Y Rtn-22.6%221.5%151.7%443.7%36.2%200.0%175.9%
1M Excs Rtn-18.0%13.2%-9.4%4.2%3.7%31.1%3.9%
3M Excs Rtn-30.2%29.5%-7.2%-17.8%-11.2%3.4%-9.2%
6M Excs Rtn-60.1%73.8%-5.3%-18.7%-17.0%-33.5%-17.8%
12M Excs Rtn-84.3%72.6%-4.7%-1.5%-12.8%-55.1%-8.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-92.4%162.7%74.6%434.8%-41.6%130.8%102.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Advertising technology platform1,9461,5781,196836661
Total1,9461,5781,196836661


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity48,642,889
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120258.5%
Average Daily Volume15,177,152
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.21
Basic Shares Quantity487,729,000
Short % of Basic Shares10.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024221202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024510202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023215202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022215202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021216202210-K 12/31/2021