Digital Turbine (APPS)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $4.98 | Market Cap: $543.5 MilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Digital Turbine (APPS)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $4.98Market Cap: $543.5 MilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Social Media & Creator Economy, and Digital Advertising. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -50%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -143% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -23 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -4.3% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 52% | ||
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 236% | ||
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -11% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 128% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -15% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 149% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Social Media & Creator Economy, and Digital Advertising. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -50%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -143% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -23 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -4.3% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 52% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 236% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -11% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 128% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -15% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 149% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
APPS Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the approximate 16.9% movement in Digital Turbine (APPS) stock from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Strong Q4 Fiscal Year 2025 Financial Results.
Digital Turbine reported robust financial results for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025 in June, with total revenue increasing 6% year-over-year to $119.2 million and adjusted EBITDA growing by 66% year-over-year to $20.5 million, surpassing analyst expectations for earnings per share and revenue. This strong performance, which resulted in a post-earnings stock rise, likely set a positive tone influencing later stock movements within the specified period.
2. Significant Growth in App Growth Platform (AGP) Business.
The company's App Growth Platform (AGP) business experienced substantial growth, with supply volumes seeing a 30% year-over-year surge in impressions during the second quarter of fiscal year 2026. This growth was attributed to the expansion of its SDK footprint, strong performance in the APAC region, and increased non-gaming inventory.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| APPS Return | 693% | 8% | -75% | -55% | -75% | 183% | -33% |
| Peers Return | 13% | -2% | -7% | 5% | 55% | 836% | 1483% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| APPS Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 33% | 42% | 33% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 13% | 10% | 9% | 30% | 44% | 36% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| APPS Max Drawdown | -48% | -15% | -82% | -71% | -82% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -5% | -4% | -8% | -15% | -8% | -51% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ADSK, HIT, BMR, BTTC, CCC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | APPS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -95.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 2033.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -51.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 104.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 77 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -52.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 110.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 143 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -95.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1996.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4151 days | 1480 days |
Compare to ADSK, HIT, BMR, BTTC, CCC
In The Past
Digital Turbine's stock fell -95.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/1/2021. A -95.3% loss requires a 2033.8% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to APPS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 03312023 | APPS | Digital Turbine | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -51.1% | -78.8% | -80.0% |
| 09302022 | APPS | Digital Turbine | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -14.2% | -58.0% | -58.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 03312023 | APPS | Digital Turbine | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -51.1% | -78.8% | -80.0% |
| 09302022 | APPS | Digital Turbine | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -14.2% | -58.0% | -58.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Digital Turbine
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 4.17 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.5 |
| Rev LTM | 525 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1 |
| FCF LTM | 136 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 216 |
| CFO LTM | 178 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 271 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 17.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 21.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.5 |
| P/S | 1.8 |
| P/EBIT | 24.6 |
| P/E | 35.8 |
| P/CFO | 15.5 |
| Total Yield | 1.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.7% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -12.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -17.3% |
| 6M Rtn | -5.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 2.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | -6.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -12.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -21.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -20.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -8.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -76.6% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 6162025 | 10-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2052025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5282024 | 10-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2072024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5252023 | 10-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2082023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8082022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 6062022 | 10-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2082022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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