Apple (AAPL)
Market Price (7/23/2026): $325.82 | Market Cap: $4.8 TrilInvestor Relations Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Apple (AAPL)
Market Price (7/23/2026): $325.82Market Cap: $4.8 TrilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 33% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, CFO LTM is 140 Bil, FCF LTM is 129 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 261 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, Cybersecurity, Cloud Computing, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.4%, Dist 3Y High is -2.4% | Key risksAAPL key risks include [1] intense global antitrust scrutiny of its App Store ecosystem, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 33% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%, CFO LTM is 140 Bil, FCF LTM is 129 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 261 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, Cybersecurity, Cloud Computing, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.4%, Dist 3Y High is -2.4% |
| Key risksAAPL key risks include [1] intense global antitrust scrutiny of its App Store ecosystem, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Apple (AAPL) stock has gained about 30% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Exceptional Fiscal Q2 2026 Financial Performance and Optimistic Outlook.
Apple reported strong results for fiscal Q2 2026 (ending March 28, 2026), with revenue of $111.2 billion, up 17% year-over-year, exceeding Wall Street estimates. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) reached $2.01, a 22% increase year-over-year, also surpassing analysts' expectations. The company achieved March quarter records for total revenue, iPhone revenue, and EPS. Furthermore, Apple provided a robust outlook for fiscal Q3 2026, forecasting total company revenue growth of 14% to 17% year-over-year, which was above analysts' estimates.
2. Sustained Strong Demand for iPhone and Record Services Revenue.
The iPhone 17 lineup continued to drive significant sales, with iPhone revenue surging 22% year-over-year to $57 billion in fiscal Q2 2026. This strong demand contributed to Apple achieving a record global smartphone market share of 20% in calendar Q2 2026 (April-June). Concurrently, Apple's high-margin Services segment reached an all-time record revenue of $31 billion in fiscal Q2 2026, marking a 16% year-over-year increase. Analysts project Apple to reach a record smartphone market share of approximately 25% for the current fiscal year.
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Apple (AAPL) stock has gained about 30% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Exceptional Fiscal Q2 2026 Financial Performance and Optimistic Outlook.
Apple reported strong results for fiscal Q2 2026 (ending March 28, 2026), with revenue of $111.2 billion, up 17% year-over-year, exceeding Wall Street estimates. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) reached $2.01, a 22% increase year-over-year, also surpassing analysts' expectations. The company achieved March quarter records for total revenue, iPhone revenue, and EPS. Furthermore, Apple provided a robust outlook for fiscal Q3 2026, forecasting total company revenue growth of 14% to 17% year-over-year, which was above analysts' estimates.
2. Sustained Strong Demand for iPhone and Record Services Revenue.
The iPhone 17 lineup continued to drive significant sales, with iPhone revenue surging 22% year-over-year to $57 billion in fiscal Q2 2026. This strong demand contributed to Apple achieving a record global smartphone market share of 20% in calendar Q2 2026 (April-June). Concurrently, Apple's high-margin Services segment reached an all-time record revenue of $31 billion in fiscal Q2 2026, marking a 16% year-over-year increase. Analysts project Apple to reach a record smartphone market share of approximately 25% for the current fiscal year.
3. Enhanced Capital Return Program.
Apple demonstrated confidence in its future financial performance by authorizing an additional $100 billion for share repurchases. Additionally, the company increased its quarterly cash dividend by 4% to $0.27 per share, payable in May 2026, marking the 14th consecutive year of dividend increases. These actions signal a strong commitment to returning value to shareholders.
4. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Upgraded Price Targets Driven by AI Integration.
Despite an initial mixed reaction to the introduction of "Siri AI" and "Apple Intelligence" features at WWDC 2026 in June, leading analysts responded with significant price target upgrades, signaling long-term optimism. For example, Citi raised its price target to $365 from $315 in mid-July, maintaining a "Buy" rating and citing Apple's robust fundamentals and pricing power. Wedbush reiterated an "Outperform" rating and a $400 price target after WWDC, suggesting that Apple's new AI strategy could add $75 to $100 per share to the stock over time. These revisions reflect expectations for substantial long-term growth and monetization potential from Apple's advancements in artificial intelligence, particularly its capacity to enhance high-margin services revenue.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 28.5% change in AAPL stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 22.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 253.56 | 325.89 | 28.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 435,617 | 451,442 | 3.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 27.0% | 27.2% | 0.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 31.8 | 39.0 | 22.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 14,748 | 14,673 | 0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 28.5% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 28.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.9% | 26.9% |
| Sector (XLK) | 35.6% | 10.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 20.1% change in AAPL stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 8.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 271.36 | 325.89 | 20.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 416,161 | 451,442 | 8.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 26.9% | 27.2% | 0.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 35.9 | 39.0 | 8.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 14,815 | 14,673 | 1.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 20.1% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 20.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.9% | 40.3% |
| Sector (XLK) | 25.4% | 23.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 59.5% change in AAPL stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 23.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 204.36 | 325.89 | 59.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 400,366 | 451,442 | 12.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 24.3% | 27.2% | 11.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 31.5 | 39.0 | 23.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 14,994 | 14,673 | 2.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 59.5% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 59.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 22.0% | 43.7% |
| Sector (XLK) | 43.0% | 28.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 70.4% change in AAPL stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 21.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 191.29 | 325.89 | 70.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 385,095 | 451,442 | 17.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 24.5% | 27.2% | 10.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 32.0 | 39.0 | 21.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 15,787 | 14,673 | 7.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 70.4% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 70.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.6% | 63.4% |
| Sector (XLK) | 111.3% | 56.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AAPL Return | 35% | -26% | 49% | 31% | 9% | 21% | 154% |
| Peers Return | 46% | -34% | 62% | 32% | 14% | 48% | 246% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 100% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AAPL Win Rate | 67% | 25% | 75% | 58% | 58% | 57% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 70% | 32% | 73% | 62% | 47% | 51% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 57% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AAPL Max Drawdown | -19% | -30% | -15% | -15% | -31% | -13% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -13% | -43% | -18% | -25% | -32% | -22% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, DELL, HPQ. See AAPL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/22/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AAPL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -29.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.0% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 164 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -11.1% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.4% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 55 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -13.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.9% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 40 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -28.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 351 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -30.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 71 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -38.5% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.6% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 280 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Apple's stock fell -29.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 42.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | AAPL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -29.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.0% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 164 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -28.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 351 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -30.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 71 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -38.5% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.6% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 280 days | 105 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.7% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 154.4% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 274 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Apple's stock fell -29.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 42.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Apple (AAPL)
Apple Inc. (AAPL) is a global technology company that designs, manufactures, and markets a wide range of consumer electronics, software, and online services. The company's business model centers on creating an integrated ecosystem of hardware and software, providing users with premium smartphones, personal computers, tablets, and wearable devices.
Apple's main products include the iPhone (smartphones), Mac (personal computers), iPad (tablets), and popular wearables such as Apple Watch and AirPods. Complementing its hardware, Apple offers a robust suite of services, including the App Store for digital content and applications, Apple Music for streaming, Apple TV+ for original video content, Apple Pay for mobile payments, and AppleCare for support. It also provides cloud services and subscription offerings like Apple Arcade and Apple News+.
The company primarily serves a broad customer base, including individual consumers, small and mid-sized businesses, and sectors like education, enterprise, and government. Apple distributes its products globally through its own retail and online stores, direct sales force, and a network of third-party cellular network carriers, wholesalers, retailers, and resellers.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Apple (AAPL):
- The Nike of personal technology.
- Imagine if Tesla made your phone, computer, and watch, and designed all the software they ran on.
- The Rolex of personal electronics.
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- iPhone: Apple's flagship line of smartphones.
- Mac: Apple's brand of personal computers.
- iPad: Apple's line of multi-purpose tablets.
- Wearables & Accessories: Includes devices like Apple Watch, AirPods, Apple TV, and HomePod.
- App Store: A digital marketplace for applications and content.
- Apple Music: A subscription-based music streaming service.
- Apple TV+: A subscription video streaming service featuring exclusive original content.
- Apple Arcade: A subscription service offering a curated library of games.
- Apple News+: A subscription service for news and magazines.
- AppleCare: Comprehensive support and extended warranty services for Apple products.
- iCloud: Cloud storage and synchronization services for data across Apple devices.
- Apple Pay: A mobile payment and digital wallet service.
- Apple Card: A co-branded credit card offering integrated financial management.
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Apple Inc. (AAPL) primarily sells its products and services to individuals and various organizational entities. Its major customer categories include:
- Consumers: Individual users worldwide who purchase Apple's smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables, accessories, and subscribe to its various services (e.g., Apple Music, Apple TV+, App Store content) for personal use.
- Small and Mid-sized Businesses: Organizations that acquire Apple products (such as iPhones, Macs, and iPads) and related services for their employees and operational needs.
- Education, Enterprise, and Government Markets: Larger institutions, corporations, and public sector bodies that integrate Apple technology into their learning environments, corporate infrastructure, or administrative systems.
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- Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. Ltd. (Foxconn) (2317.TW)
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC) (TSM)
- Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. (005930.KS)
- LG Display Co., Ltd. (LPL)
- Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)
- Broadcom Inc. (AVGO)
- Sony Group Corporation (SONY)
- Murata Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (6981.T)
- Luxshare Precision Industry Co., Ltd. (002475.SZ)
- Goertek Inc. (002241.SZ)
- Pegatron Corporation (4938.TW)
- Wistron Corporation (3231.TW)
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Tim Cook, Chief Executive Officer
Tim Cook has served as Apple's CEO since 2011, succeeding co-founder Steve Jobs. Prior to his appointment as CEO, he was Apple's chief operating officer, responsible for the company's worldwide sales and operations, supply chain management, and service and support across all markets. Before joining Apple in 1998, Cook spent 12 years at IBM, where he was director of North American Fulfillment. He also served as chief operating officer of the Reseller Division at Intelligent Electronics and as vice president of Corporate Materials for Compaq.
Kevan Parekh, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Kevan Parekh assumed the role of Apple's Chief Financial Officer on January 1, 2025. He reports directly to CEO Tim Cook and oversees Apple's accounting, business support, financial planning and analysis, treasury, investor relations, internal audit, and tax functions. Parekh joined Apple in 2013 and has held key roles in financial and business planning, and product development planning. Prior to his time at Apple, he held senior leadership positions at Thomson Reuters and General Motors, working across Europe and Asia.
Katherine Adams, Senior Vice President of Government Affairs
Katherine Adams is Apple's senior vice president of Government Affairs, leading the team that engages with legislators and policymakers globally on topics important to Apple's users. She previously served as Apple's general counsel and senior vice president of Legal and Global Security. Adams joined Apple in 2017 after 14 years at Honeywell, where she was most recently senior vice president and general counsel, managing the organization's global legal strategy across over 100 countries.
Eddy Cue, Senior Vice President of Services and Health
Eddy Cue is Apple's senior vice president of Services and Health, reporting to CEO Tim Cook. He oversees the full range of Apple's services, including Apple Music, Apple News, Apple Podcasts, Apple TV app, Apple Pay, Apple Card, Maps, iCloud services, and Apple's productivity and creativity apps. Cue joined Apple in 1989 and was instrumental in creating the Apple Store online in 1998, the iTunes Store in 2003, and the App Store in 2008.
Craig Federighi, Senior Vice President of Software Engineering
Craig Federighi is Apple's senior vice president of Software Engineering, responsible for the development of Apple's software platforms, including iOS, iPadOS, macOS, watchOS, and visionOS. His teams deliver the software, user interface, applications, and frameworks for Apple's innovative products. Federighi returned to Apple in 2009 to lead macOS engineering, and in 2012, his responsibilities expanded to include iOS. Before rejoining Apple, he worked at NeXT, and then spent a decade at Ariba, an e-commerce pioneer where he held several roles, including chief technology officer.
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The key risks to Apple's business include:
- Regulatory and Antitrust Scrutiny: Apple faces significant global regulatory and antitrust challenges, particularly concerning its App Store policies and business practices. Investigations and lawsuits from entities such as the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) and the European Union (EU) Digital Markets Act (DMA) target Apple's control over app distribution and in-app purchasing systems, which could lead to mandated changes in business practices, lower commission fees, and substantial fines. These actions directly threaten the high-margin revenue generated by Apple's Services segment.
- Geopolitical Tensions and Supply Chain Concentration: Apple's deep reliance on China as both a primary manufacturing hub and a critical consumer market exposes it to considerable geopolitical risks. Escalating trade tensions, tariffs, export controls, and potential shifts in consumer sentiment in China could disrupt its supply chain, increase production costs, and negatively impact sales in a key region. While Apple is pursuing diversification of its manufacturing base to countries like India and Vietnam, this process is complex, costly, and its dependency on China remains substantial.
- Innovation and Competition in Rapidly Evolving Technologies: Apple operates in highly competitive markets across its product and service categories, requiring constant innovation to maintain its leadership. There is a risk that new products and services may not achieve the same level of profitability or market acceptance as existing offerings, such as the iPhone. Furthermore, the company faces pressure to keep pace with rapid technological advancements, especially in artificial intelligence (AI), and a perceived lag in AI development or a failure to introduce compelling new AI features could impact its competitive standing and future growth.
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Regulatory actions, particularly those aimed at dismantling its tightly controlled App Store ecosystem and payment policies. Examples include the European Union's Digital Markets Act (DMA), which mandates allowing alternative app stores and third-party payment systems on iOS devices, and ongoing antitrust scrutiny in other regions such as the United States and Japan. These actions threaten Apple's significant revenue streams from App Store commissions and its strategic control over its platform, potentially leading to reduced profitability and a more fragmented user experience.
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Addressable Markets for Apple's Main Products and Services
- Smartphones (iPhone): The global smartphone market size was valued at USD 649.13 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 1173.47 billion by 2033.
- Personal Computers (Mac): The global personal computers market size was valued at USD 211.31 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 390.84 billion by 2033.
- Tablets (iPad): The global tablet market size was valued at USD 84.6 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach USD 202.4 billion by 2033.
- Wearables (AirPods Max, AirPods, Apple Watch, Beats products): The global wearables market was estimated at USD 179.8 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 995.2 billion in 2034.
- App Store (Applications and Digital Content): The App Store ecosystem facilitated nearly USD 1.3 trillion in billings and sales worldwide in 2024. Of this, USD 131 billion originated from billings and sales of digital goods and services.
- Apple Arcade (Game Subscription Service): The global subscription-based gaming market generated USD 11.53 billion in revenue in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 24.18 billion by 2030.
- Apple Music (Music Streaming): The global music streaming market generated USD 48.6 billion in 2024 and is predicted to grow to about USD 200 billion by 2034.
- Apple TV+ (Video Streaming): The global video streaming market size was estimated at USD 129.26 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 416.8 billion by 2030.
-
Apple Card and Apple Pay (FinTech/Digital Payments):
- The global fintech market was valued at USD 394.88 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 1,760.18 billion by 2034.
- The global digital payment market size was estimated at USD 114.41 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 361.30 billion by 2030.
- Apple News+: null
- AppleCare support services: null
- Licensing intellectual property: null
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Apple Inc. (AAPL) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies and market trends:
- Continued Services Growth: Apple's Services segment, encompassing offerings like the App Store, Apple Music, iCloud, and payment services, is a consistent and high-margin revenue driver. This segment has shown robust double-digit year-over-year growth and is projected to continue its strong momentum, supported by Apple's extensive installed base of over 2.5 billion active devices. The expansion of this ecosystem, through recurring subscriptions and digital transactions, provides stable and predictable revenue streams.
- Strong iPhone Sales and Upgrade Cycles: iPhone sales continue to be a significant contributor to Apple's revenue, with recent quarters showing strong growth, particularly driven by new product launches like the iPhone 17 lineup. A large, installed base of active devices creates opportunities for significant hardware upgrade cycles, especially with the introduction of new, more capable, and AI-ready iPhone models.
- Expansion in Emerging Markets: Apple is experiencing considerable growth in emerging markets. The company has reported double-digit iPhone growth in regions such as India, the Middle East, South Asia, Brazil, and Greater China, indicating a successful strategy to expand its customer base beyond traditional markets. This geographical expansion is crucial for sustained long-term revenue growth.
- Artificial Intelligence (AI) Integration and Innovation: Apple's strategic focus on developing and integrating AI across its platforms is a significant future growth driver. This includes efforts to enhance its operating systems and services, such as a more personalized Siri, potentially through collaborations like the one with Google for foundational AI models. New AI-ready iPads and Macs are also expected to accelerate sales by appealing to an increasingly AI-focused technological environment.
- New Product Line Innovation and Market Share Expansion: Apple is demonstrating flexibility in its product strategy by introducing new offerings aimed at broader market segments. Examples include the launch of the MacBook Neo, a more budget-friendly laptop, and the iPhone 17e, a new low-end iPhone, designed to attract new users into the Apple ecosystem and increase market share. Furthermore, exploration into new categories like home automation and security, potentially with a smart home hub and security cameras, could also serve as future revenue catalysts.
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Share Repurchases
- Apple authorized an additional $110 billion for share repurchases in May 2024, marking the largest share buyback in U.S. company history.
- The company repurchased $90.711 billion in shares in 2025, $94.949 billion in 2024, and $77.55 billion in 2023.
Share Issuance
- Apple's shares outstanding declined by 2.62% in 2025 (to 15.005 billion), 2.56% in 2024 (to 15.408 billion), and 3.14% in 2023 (to 15.813 billion), primarily due to extensive share repurchase programs.
Outbound Investments
- Apple is significantly increasing its AI investments and has made seven acquisitions directly related to its AI ambitions in 2025, with a stated openness to further strategic acquisitions aligned with long-term AI goals.
- The company has committed $500 billion to U.S. investments over several years, focusing on expanding U.S.-based manufacturing and research and development.
- In October 2025, Apple pledged further investments in China while simultaneously preparing to dedicate another $100 billion to expanding its operations in the U.S.
Capital Expenditures
- Apple's annual capital expenditures were $12.715 billion in 2025, $9.447 billion in 2024, and $10.959 billion in 2023.
- Expected capital expenditures for the next fiscal year are forecast at $13.465 billion, with a high consensus reaching $16.238 billion.
- A significant portion of capital expenditures in fiscal Q4 2025, which saw a 35% year-over-year increase to $12.7 billion, was directed towards AI infrastructure, chip development, and new data centers.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 333.99 |
| Mkt Cap | 2,764.5 |
| Rev LTM | 370,386 |
| Op Inc LTM | 111,776 |
| FCF LTM | 36,936 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 45,410 |
| CFO LTM | 144,376 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 120,320 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 15.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 12.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 17.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.9% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 18.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 22.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 22.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 20.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 25.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2,764.5 |
| P/S | 6.3 |
| P/Op Inc | 28.2 |
| P/EBIT | 21.7 |
| P/E | 27.4 |
| P/CFO | 20.4 |
| Total Yield | 3.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.9% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 10.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 18.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 30.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 80.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 5.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 8.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 11.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 11.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| iPhone | 209,586 | 201,183 | 200,583 | 205,489 | 191,973 |
| Services | 109,158 | 96,169 | 85,200 | 78,129 | 68,425 |
| Wearables, Home and Accessories | 35,686 | 37,005 | 39,845 | 41,241 | 38,367 |
| Mac | 33,708 | 29,984 | 29,357 | 40,177 | 35,190 |
| iPad | 28,023 | 26,694 | 28,300 | 29,292 | 31,862 |
| Total | 416,161 | 391,035 | 383,285 | 394,328 | 365,817 |
| $ Mil | 2009 |
|---|---|
| Americas | 6,637 |
| Europe | 4,296 |
| Retail | 1,677 |
| Other Segments | 1,121 |
| Japan | 961 |
| Corporate | -2,952 |
| Total | 11,740 |
| $ Mil | 2009 |
|---|---|
| Corporate | 41,897 |
| Americas | 1,882 |
| Europe | 1,352 |
| Retail | 1,344 |
| Other Segments | 543 |
| Japan | 483 |
| Total | 47,501 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $325.89 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 4,781.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/12/1980 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -2.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $304.89 | $274.77 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 6.9% | 18.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 27.9% | 24.6% |
| Downside Capture | -14.55 | 59.08 |
| Upside Capture | 70.33 | 96.20 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 21.8% | 43.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.38 | 0.52 | 0.68 | 0.81 | 0.88 | 1.11 |
| Up Beta | 1.59 | 1.03 | 1.18 | 1.01 | 1.05 | 1.21 |
| Down Beta | 0.05 | 0.13 | 0.24 | 0.71 | 0.82 | 1.16 |
| Up Capture | -30% | 66% | 65% | 71% | 95% | 96% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 22 | 35 | 63 | 134 | 405 |
| Down Capture | 53% | 38% | 36% | 80% | 76% | 101% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 18 | 27 | 61 | 117 | 344 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AAPL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 53.3% | 24.6% | 1.70 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 38.8% | 24.7% | 1.27 | 28.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 20.0% | 12.6% | 1.16 | 43.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.2% | 28.1% | 0.67 | 7.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 33.0% | 19.1% | 1.36 | -16.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.9% | 14.0% | 0.70 | 17.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -43.6% | 42.9% | -1.21 | 12.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AAPL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 17.4% | 27.8% | 0.58 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 19.6% | 25.6% | 0.68 | 71.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.58 | 73.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.3% | 18.4% | 0.76 | 5.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.3% | 19.5% | 0.37 | 9.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.7% | 18.9% | 0.04 | 46.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 15.2% | 53.5% | 0.46 | 26.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AAPL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 30.8% | 29.1% | 0.97 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 24.5% | 24.8% | 0.89 | 78.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 74.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.5% | 16.1% | 0.58 | 5.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.1% | 17.9% | 0.31 | 19.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 47.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.5% | 66.2% | 0.99 | 18.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/2/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/30/2026 | 3.2% | 5.9% | 13.0% |
| 1/29/2026 | 0.5% | 6.8% | 2.6% |
| 10/30/2025 | -0.4% | -0.6% | 5.6% |
| 7/31/2025 | -2.5% | 6.0% | 12.0% |
| 5/1/2025 | -3.7% | -7.4% | -5.3% |
| 1/30/2025 | -0.7% | -1.8% | 0.3% |
| 10/31/2024 | -1.3% | 0.7% | 6.2% |
| 8/1/2024 | 0.7% | -2.3% | 5.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 14 | 17 |
| # Negative | 14 | 10 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% |
| Median Negative | -1.6% | -4.1% | -6.1% |
| Max Positive | 10.5% | 18.4% | 30.0% |
| Max Negative | -5.6% | -7.4% | -14.5% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/30/2026 | 3.2% | 5.9% | 13.0% |
| 1/29/2026 | 0.5% | 6.8% | 2.6% |
| 10/30/2025 | -0.4% | -0.6% | 5.6% |
| 7/31/2025 | -2.5% | 6.0% | 12.0% |
| 5/1/2025 | -3.7% | -7.4% | -5.3% |
| 1/30/2025 | -0.7% | -1.8% | 0.3% |
| 10/31/2024 | -1.3% | 0.7% | 6.2% |
| 8/1/2024 | 0.7% | -2.3% | 5.0% |
| 5/2/2024 | 6.0% | 6.7% | 12.3% |
| 2/1/2024 | -0.5% | 0.8% | -6.2% |
| 11/2/2023 | -0.5% | 2.7% | 6.8% |
| 8/3/2023 | -4.8% | -6.9% | -0.8% |
| 5/4/2023 | 4.7% | 4.8% | 8.5% |
| 2/2/2023 | 2.4% | 0.0% | 2.2% |
| 10/27/2022 | 7.6% | -4.1% | -0.2% |
| 7/28/2022 | 3.3% | 5.4% | 4.1% |
| 4/28/2022 | -3.7% | -4.2% | -8.4% |
| 1/27/2022 | 7.0% | 8.6% | 3.8% |
| 10/28/2021 | -1.8% | -1.1% | 5.2% |
| 7/27/2021 | -1.2% | 0.4% | 1.2% |
| 4/28/2021 | -0.1% | -4.1% | -6.1% |
| 1/27/2021 | -3.5% | -5.7% | -14.5% |
| 10/29/2020 | -5.6% | 3.2% | 3.4% |
| 7/30/2020 | 10.5% | 18.4% | 30.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 14 | 17 |
| # Negative | 14 | 10 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% |
| Median Negative | -1.6% | -4.1% | -6.1% |
| Max Positive | 10.5% | 18.4% | 30.0% |
| Max Negative | -5.6% | -7.4% | -14.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/01/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 01/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/02/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/01/2024 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/03/2023 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/28/2022 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/01/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 01/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/02/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/01/2024 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/03/2023 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/28/2022 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 01/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/29/2021 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/28/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 01/28/2021 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/30/2020 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/31/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/01/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 01/29/2020 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/31/2019 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2019 | 07/31/2019 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Updated 6/17/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borders, Ben | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 6172026 | 295.14 | 116 | 34,236 | 11,425,755 | Form |
| 2 | Levinson, Arthur D | Direct | Sell | 5292026 | 311.02 | 50,000 | 15,551,000 | 1,170,858,428 | Form | |
| 3 | Borders, Ben | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 5122026 | 290.00 | 1,274 | 369,460 | 11,226,770 | Form |
| 4 | Levinson, Arthur D | Direct | Sell | 5082026 | 284.76 | 250,000 | 71,189,722 | 1,087,658,219 | Form | |
| 5 | Parekh, Kevan | Senior Vice President, CFO | Direct | Sell | 4272026 | 275.00 | 1,534 | 421,850 | 3,675,650 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borders, Ben | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 6172026 | 295.14 | 116 | 34,236 | 11,425,755 | Form |
| 2 | Levinson, Arthur D | Direct | Sell | 5292026 | 311.02 | 50,000 | 15,551,000 | 1,170,858,428 | Form | |
| 3 | Borders, Ben | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 5122026 | 290.00 | 1,274 | 369,460 | 11,226,770 | Form |
| 4 | Levinson, Arthur D | Direct | Sell | 5082026 | 284.76 | 250,000 | 71,189,722 | 1,087,658,219 | Form | |
| 5 | Parekh, Kevan | Senior Vice President, CFO | Direct | Sell | 4272026 | 275.00 | 1,534 | 421,850 | 3,675,650 | Form |
| 6 | O'Brien, Deirdre | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 4032026 | 255.35 | 30,002 | 7,660,875 | 34,933,815 | Form |
| 7 | Cook, Timothy D | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 4032026 | 254.23 | 64,949 | 16,512,198 | 833,991,449 | Form |
| 8 | Kondo, Chris | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 271.23 | 3,752 | 1,017,655 | 4,095,031 | Form |
| 9 | Parekh, Kevan | Senior Vice President, CFO | Direct | Sell | 10172025 | 247.39 | 4,199 | 1,038,787 | 2,168,367 | Form |
| 10 | Cook, Timothy D | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 10032025 | 256.81 | 129,963 | 33,375,723 | 842,410,671 | Form |
| 11 | O'Brien, Deirdre | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 10032025 | 257.39 | 43,013 | 11,071,078 | 35,181,747 | Form |
| 12 | Adams, Katherine L | SVP, GC and Secretary | Direct | Sell | 10032025 | 256.79 | 47,125 | 12,101,154 | 46,005,698 | Form |
| 13 | Levinson, Arthur D | Direct | Sell | 8292025 | 232.07 | 90,000 | 20,886,300 | 944,426,502 | Form | |
| 14 | O'Brien, Deirdre | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 8122025 | 223.20 | 34,821 | 7,772,047 | 30,508,538 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Jul 23, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJA Asset Management LLC | $248.8 Mil | 91.5% | 4 | Hold | 13F |
| Independent Investors Inc | $274.4 Mil | 54.5% | 70 | Hold | 13F |
| Circle Wealth Management, LLC | $3.0 Bil | 43.2% | 262 | ADD +26.8% | 13F |
| OP Asset Management Ltd | $741.0 Mil | 40.9% | 64 | New | 13F |
| H&H International Investment, LLC | $7.3 Bil | 36.7% | 19 | TRIM -10.5% | 13F |
| Fiduciary Family Office, LLC | $113.3 Mil | 32.3% | 179 | Hold | 13F |
| Performance Wealth Partners, LLC | $996.0 Mil | 28.9% | 212 | Hold | 13F |
| Golden Unicorn (BVI) Ltd | $177.7 Mil | 25.5% | 4 | Hold | 13F |
| Biltmore Family Office, LLC | $174.6 Mil | 24.4% | 325 | Hold | 13F |
| Evolution Wealth Advisors, LLC | $238.7 Mil | 24.3% | 176 | Hold | 13F |
| Greenbrier Partners Capital Management, LLC | $299.6 Mil | 23.1% | 11 | TRIM -16.9% | 13F |
| Berkshire Hathaway Inc | $57.8 Bil | 22.0% | 90 | Hold | 13F |
| Fishman Jay a Ltd/Mi | $228.1 Mil | 20.4% | 76 | Hold | 13F |
| Keating Financial Advisory Services, Inc. | $120.5 Mil | 19.5% | 2572 | Hold | 13F |
| MPS Loria Financial Planners, LLC | $71.0 Mil | 18.7% | 94 | Hold | 13F |
| Capital Investment Counsel, Inc | $138.2 Mil | 16.9% | 249 | TRIM -5.8% | 13F |
| ZEGA Investments, LLC | $88.5 Mil | 16.8% | 190 | Hold | 13F |
| Brickley Wealth Management | $97.1 Mil | 16.7% | 60 | Hold | 13F |
| Bender Robert & Associates | $66.5 Mil | 16.0% | 45 | TRIM -8.1% | 13F |
| Windward Capital Management Co /Ca | $194.0 Mil | 15.8% | 69 | Hold | 13F |
| Opes Wealth Management LLC | $92.4 Mil | 15.8% | 141 | Hold | 13F |
| Cincinnati Specialty Underwriters Insurance CO | $64.2 Mil | 15.6% | 46 | TRIM -17.8% | 13F |
| Miller Wealth Advisors, LLC | $40.5 Mil | 15.6% | 117 | Hold | 13F |
| Yarbrough Capital, LLC | $442.8 Mil | 15.5% | 85 | Hold | 13F |
| Zullo Investment Group, Inc. | $40.5 Mil | 15.4% | 158 | Hold | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OP Asset Management Ltd | $741.0 Mil | 40.9% | 64 | New | 13F |
| Clare Market Investments LLC | $60.6 Mil | 12.7% | 167 | New | 13F |
| Howard Hughes Medical Institute | $50.4 Mil | 12.1% | 31 | New | 13F |
| 1776 Wealth LLC | $31.6 Mil | 12.4% | 146 | New | 13F |
| Circle Wealth Management, LLC | $3.0 Bil | 43.2% | 262 | ADD +26.8% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Three Seasons Wealth, LLC | $134.4 Mil | 12.8% | 199 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Platform Wealth Management, LLC | $61.9 Mil | 16.4% | 82 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Cincinnati Specialty Underwriters Insurance CO | $64.2 Mil | 15.6% | 46 | TRIM -17.8% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Greenbrier Partners Capital Management, LLC | $299.6 Mil | 23.1% | 11 | TRIM -16.9% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| H&H International Investment, LLC | $7.3 Bil | 36.7% | 19 | TRIM -10.5% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Bender Robert & Associates | $66.5 Mil | 16.0% | 45 | TRIM -8.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Sittner & Nelson, LLC | $39.2 Mil | 14.3% | 573 | TRIM -8.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Capital Investment Counsel, Inc | $138.2 Mil | 16.9% | 249 | TRIM -5.8% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Berkshire Hathaway Inc | $57.8 Bil | 22.0% | 90 | Hold | 13F |
| H&H International Investment, LLC | $7.3 Bil | 36.7% | 19 | TRIM -10.5% | 13F |
| Circle Wealth Management, LLC | $3.0 Bil | 43.2% | 262 | ADD +26.8% | 13F |
| Everett Harris & Co /Ca/ | $1.0 Bil | 13.4% | 325 | Hold | 13F |
| Performance Wealth Partners, LLC | $996.0 Mil | 28.9% | 212 | Hold | 13F |
| OP Asset Management Ltd | $741.0 Mil | 40.9% | 64 | New | 13F |
| Cincinnati Financial Corp | $709.9 Mil | 14.3% | 55 | Hold | 13F |
| Yarbrough Capital, LLC | $442.8 Mil | 15.5% | 85 | Hold | 13F |
| Greenbrier Partners Capital Management, LLC | $299.6 Mil | 23.1% | 11 | TRIM -16.9% | 13F |
| Independent Investors Inc | $274.4 Mil | 54.5% | 70 | Hold | 13F |
| RJA Asset Management LLC | $248.8 Mil | 91.5% | 4 | Hold | 13F |
| Evolution Wealth Advisors, LLC | $238.7 Mil | 24.3% | 176 | Hold | 13F |
| Fishman Jay a Ltd/Mi | $228.1 Mil | 20.4% | 76 | Hold | 13F |
| Windward Capital Management Co /Ca | $194.0 Mil | 15.8% | 69 | Hold | 13F |
| Golden Unicorn (BVI) Ltd | $177.7 Mil | 25.5% | 4 | Hold | 13F |
| Biltmore Family Office, LLC | $174.6 Mil | 24.4% | 325 | Hold | 13F |
| Capital Investment Counsel, Inc | $138.2 Mil | 16.9% | 249 | TRIM -5.8% | 13F |
| HCR Wealth Advisors | $129.7 Mil | 13.5% | 241 | Hold | 13F |
| Keating Financial Advisory Services, Inc. | $120.5 Mil | 19.5% | 2572 | Hold | 13F |
| Fiduciary Family Office, LLC | $113.3 Mil | 32.3% | 179 | Hold | 13F |
| Brickley Wealth Management | $97.1 Mil | 16.7% | 60 | Hold | 13F |
| Wahed Invest LLC | $95.7 Mil | 12.4% | 225 | Hold | 13F |
| Opes Wealth Management LLC | $92.4 Mil | 15.8% | 141 | Hold | 13F |
| ZEGA Investments, LLC | $88.5 Mil | 16.8% | 190 | Hold | 13F |
| Aljian Capital Management, LLC | $72.3 Mil | 14.9% | 131 | Hold | 13F |
AAPL Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is constructive based on a powerful, AI-driven product cycle fueling exceptional growth. iPhone revenue accelerated to 22% and the company guides for continued 14% to 17% growth. This momentum is balanced by significant, unresolved antitrust investigations in the US and EU targeting the high-margin Services business, which remains a key structural risk.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Dominant Repeat-Purchase Franchise (Hardware) + Recurring Subscription/Transactional (Services)Hardware revenue is driven by the size of the installed base multiplied by the upgrade rate and average selling price. Services revenue is driven by the installed base multiplied by the service attach rate and average spend per user. The ongoing mix shift from lower-margin hardware sales to higher-margin, recurring Services revenue.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests yes. An 'extraordinary' iPhone 17 cycle is driving 22% segment growth, expanding the installed base.
- iPhone net sales increased 22% year-over-year in the most recent quarter.
- The active installed base of devices is now over 2.5 billion.
- Services net sales grew 16%, driven by the App Store and cloud services.
- Company guides for total revenue growth of 14% to 17% for the next quarter.
- Gross margin for Services was 76.7% versus 38.7% for Products.
PRIMARY RISK
Global regulators are targeting Apple's ecosystem. Active investigations in the EU and a US lawsuit allege monopolization, threatening the App Store's lucrative commission structure.
- The company is subject to a formal EU noncompliance investigation under the Digital Markets Act.
- A civil antitrust lawsuit in the U.S. alleges monopolization in smartphone markets.
- Services gross margin is 76.7%, more than double that of Products.
- Services revenue reached $109,158 million in fiscal year 2025.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| iPhone Revenue Growth | 22% year-over-year growth for the March quarter 2026. - Stable | iPhone revenue growth accelerated dramatically in the first half of fiscal 2026, jumping from 6% to 23%. The latest quarter's 22% growth sustains this high level. The CEO attributed this strength to the iPhone 17 family, calling it the "most popular lineup in our history." |
| Services Revenue Growth | 16% year-over-year growth for the March quarter 2026. - Stable | Services revenue growth has been consistently strong and stable in the mid-teens, setting an all-time revenue record in the latest quarter. The CFO noted growth was broad-based, with records across most service categories and geographic segments. |
| Active Installed Base | Over 2.5 billion devices (Q2 FY2026) | This metric represents the total pool of users that can be monetized through hardware upgrades and, more importantly, recurring services. Growth in the installed base is a leading indicator of future services revenue potential. |
| iPhone Customer Satisfaction (U.S.) | 99% (Q2 FY2026) | Extremely high customer satisfaction indicates strong brand loyalty and a high likelihood of repeat purchases and ecosystem lock-in, which supports the predictability of future hardware upgrade cycles. |
| Customers New to Product | Over half of customers for iPad and Apple Watch were new to the product (Q2 FY2026) | This indicates the company's ability to continue expanding its user base and ecosystem, rather than relying solely on its existing customers for growth. It is a key measure of market penetration, especially in emerging markets. |
Hardware Super-Cycle vs. Services Regulatory Risk
BULL VIEW
Bulls believe the 22% iPhone growth from the AI-powered iPhone 17 is a durable cycle that expands the ecosystem, making Services growth inevitable.
CORE TENSION
Can accelerating hardware demand, with iPhone sales up 22%, overwhelm the structural risk from antitrust actions targeting the Services segment?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Current evidence favors the bulls. The company just posted 16.6% revenue growth and guided for 14-17% more, showing momentum is outweighing the regulatory threat for now.
BEAR VIEW
Bears argue the regulatory assault on the App Store will cripple the high-margin Services engine, leaving investors holding a peaking, lower-margin hardware business.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
fourth quarter of 2026 | New Tax Disclosures Watch: The company will adopt ASU 2023-09, which requires additional income tax disclosures. |
8/25/2026 | Peer HP Earnings Watch: Peer HP (HPQ) is scheduled to report earnings. |
10/27/2026 | Peer AI Results Reframe Narrative Watch: AI-specific revenue growth, capex guidance, and enterprise AI adoption metrics from Microsoft and Alphabet. |
10/28/2026 | Margin Guidance Cut on Memory Costs Watch: Gross margin guidance for the December quarter (Q1 FY27) and any quantification of the memory cost headwind. |
11/9/2026 | Peer Dell Earnings Watch: Peer Dell Technologies (DELL) is scheduled to report earnings. |
coming this year | Personalized Siri Launch Watch: A more personalized version of Siri is expected to be released to users. |
later this year | US Mac Mini Production Watch: Mac mini production is scheduled to begin in America. |
later this year | Houston Center Opening Watch: An advanced manufacturing center is scheduled to open in Houston. |
No set date | Adverse Antitrust Development Watch: Preliminary findings, statements of objection, court rulings, or announced fines from the European Commission or US DOJ. |
No set date | New Tariffs or Trade Restrictions Watch: Publication of initial or final results from the Section 232 investigation or executive orders announcing new tariffs. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-07-13 | Lawsuit Filed Against OpenAI Details: Apple filed a lawsuit against OpenAI and two former Apple employees, alleging misappropriation of trade secrets related to the development of consumer AI hardware. | -0.1% $315.32 -> $314.86 |
2026-07-08 | Expanded Broadcom Chipmaking Partnership Details: Apple announced a new multiyear agreement with Broadcom, expected to exceed $30 billion, to produce billions of U.S.-made chips, marking its largest American Manufacturing Program commitment. | +1.8% $310.66 -> $316.22 |
2026-06-08 | Apple Intelligence and Siri AI Unveiled Details: At its Worldwide Developers Conference, Apple previewed its next generation of AI, including Apple Intelligence and a more capable Siri AI, powered by new foundation models. | -5.5% $307.34 -> $290.55 |
2026-04-30 | Record Q2 Earnings Beat Expectations Details: For the March quarter, Apple reported revenue of $111.2 billion, up 17% year-over-year. iPhone revenue grew 22%. The stock reacted positively, up 4.0% over two days. | +3.7% $269.92 -> $279.88 |
2026-02-17 | Stock Rallies on AI Anticipation Details: Apple stock closed at $263.8, up, as the company's AI strategy headed into a high-profile event. | +3.4% $255.54 -> $264.11 |
2026-01-29 | Strong Q1 Earnings Report Details: For the quarter ended December 27, 2025, Apple reported revenue of $143.8 billion, up 16% year-over-year, with iPhone revenue growing 23%. The stock reaction was 1.0%. | +1.2% $255.96 -> $259.00 |
Position Sizing
2% - 4%
REDUCED POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: AAPL trades at roughly 26% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 15% for the S&P 500 (1.8x the market), around the 89th percentile of its own trailing year. A 2% - 4% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
MSFT - Microsoft
Enterprise AI ExposureMicrosoft offers more direct exposure to enterprise AI adoption through its cloud and software businesses, with its AI unit surpassing a $37 billion annual run rate.
GOOGL - Alphabet
Cloud AI InfrastructureAlphabet provides exposure to the foundational infrastructure layer of AI, with cloud revenue growing 63% and capital expenditures of $109.9 billion dwarfing Apple's.
Apple is a premium hardware franchise that leverages its massive, loyal installed base to build a high-margin, recurring services annuity.
Apple's core thesis rests on its unparalleled ability to sell high-margin hardware to a dedicated customer base, creating an ever-expanding ecosystem. This installed base of over 2.5 billion devices is then monetized through a rapidly growing and even higher-margin Services business. The company's focus on vertical integration with its own silicon provides a key performance and efficiency advantage, particularly as it pushes deeper into AI, which is poised to be the next major catalyst for both hardware upgrades and new service adoption.
Accelerating growth in the high-margin Services segment, a strong upgrade cycle for a new iPhone launch driven by AI features, or evidence of market share gains in emerging markets like India.
Sustained margin compression due to component costs or competition, significant negative regulatory rulings that force changes to the App Store business model, or a failed product cycle that leads to a shrinking installed base.
Short-term quarterly fluctuations in regional sales or minor shifts in market share for a single product category.
Repricing Catalyst
The successful integration and market adoption of 'Apple Intelligence' and a more capable Siri, which could trigger a significant hardware upgrade cycle and introduce new premium service tiers.
iPhone
$225.7B TTM (52% of Total)What It Is
A line of smartphones based on the iOS operating system, sold to consumers and business customers globally through direct and indirect channels.
Who Pays & How
Consumers and businesses purchase iPhones, often through third-party cellular carriers who may offer subsidies or financing. Customers choose iPhone for its integrated ecosystem, design, performance, camera system, and features like Apple Intelligence.
Competition
Services
$112.8B TTM (26% of Total)What It Is
A portfolio of services including advertising, AppleCare support, cloud services, digital content platforms (App Store, Apple Music, Apple TV+), and payment services sold to Apple's device user base.
Who Pays & How
Apple device owners pay for services to enhance their hardware experience. This includes subscriptions for content and storage, extended warranties, and commissions paid by developers for access to the App Store's large customer base.
Competition
Wearables, Home and Accessories
$35.4B TTM (8% of Total)What It Is
A category of products including smartwatches (Apple Watch), wireless headphones (AirPods, Beats), spatial computers (Apple Vision Pro), and home devices (Apple TV, HomePod), sold to consumers.
Who Pays & How
Consumers purchase these products to complement their existing Apple devices and for specific functionalities like health/fitness tracking, audio, and home entertainment. The products are deeply integrated into the Apple ecosystem.
Competition
Mac
$33.1B TTM (8% of Total)What It Is
A line of personal computers (laptops and desktops) based on the macOS operating system, sold to consumers, creative professionals, businesses, and education markets.
Who Pays & How
Individuals and organizations purchase Macs for their performance, design, ease of use, and security, particularly with the advantages of Apple's custom silicon (M-series chips) for tasks including AI development.
Competition
iPad
$28.5B TTM (7% of Total)What It Is
A line of multipurpose tablets based on the iPadOS operating system, sold to consumers, students, artists, and business users.
Who Pays & How
Customers purchase iPads for their versatility, portability, and performance, which supports a wide range of activities from content consumption and creation to productivity and learning.
Competition
Apple — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Information Technology Resources |
| TechCrunch |
| Wired |
| CIO |
| MIT Technology Review |
| Gartner Insights |
| Ars Technica |
| Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Resources |
| The Verge |
| TechRadar |
| Tom’s Hardware |
| PCMag |
| CNET |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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