HP (HPQ)
Market Price (4/25/2026): $19.79 | Market Cap: $18.3 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
HP (HPQ)
Market Price (4/25/2026): $19.79Market Cap: $18.3 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 17%, Dividend Yield is 3.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 13%, FCF Yield is 16% Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -30% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 3.3 Bil Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 3.7 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.9 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, Artificial Intelligence, and Future of Work. Themes include Endpoint Protection, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -67%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -99% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.7% Key risksHPQ key risks include [1] the structural decline of its high-margin printing supplies business and [2] a weakened financial position characterized by high leverage and potential liquidity distress. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 17%, Dividend Yield is 3.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 13%, FCF Yield is 16% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -30% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 3.3 Bil |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 3.7 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.9 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, Artificial Intelligence, and Future of Work. Themes include Endpoint Protection, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -67%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -99% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.7% |
| Key risksHPQ key risks include [1] the structural decline of its high-margin printing supplies business and [2] a weakened financial position characterized by high leverage and potential liquidity distress. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Cautious Full-Year Outlook Due to Escalating Memory Costs.
Despite reporting a non-GAAP diluted net EPS of $0.81 and net revenue of $14.4 billion for fiscal Q1 2026, both surpassing analyst estimates, HP's management issued a cautious outlook. The company guided towards the lower end of its full-year non-GAAP EPS range of $2.90 to $3.20. This conservatism was primarily attributed to a significant increase in DRAM and NAND memory prices, which doubled sequentially from Q1 to Q2 2026 and are projected to continue rising throughout fiscal 2026. These surging memory costs now constitute a substantial 35% of a PC's bill of materials, leading to severe compression of HP's operating margins.
2. Persistent Weakness in the Printing Segment.
While HP's Personal Systems segment demonstrated strong growth with an 11% increase in net revenue and a 12% rise in total units year-over-year in Q1 fiscal 2026, the Printing segment continued to face challenges. Printing net revenue declined 2% year-over-year, and hardware units saw a 6% decrease. This sustained underperformance in a key business area contributed to negative sentiment among investors, offsetting positive performance in other segments.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -9.7% change in HPQ stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -10.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 21.92 | 19.79 | -9.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 55,295 | 56,229 | 1.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.6% | 4.5% | -2.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 8.1 | 7.3 | -10.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 940 | 926 | 1.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -9.7% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HPQ | -9.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.2% | 15.1% |
| Sector (XLK) | 11.3% | 12.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -25.3% change in HPQ stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -23.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 26.48 | 19.79 | -25.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 54,711 | 56,229 | 2.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.8% | 4.5% | -7.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 9.5 | 7.3 | -23.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 947 | 926 | 2.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -25.3% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HPQ | -25.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.0% | 28.4% |
| Sector (XLK) | 13.9% | 22.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -24.9% change in HPQ stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -20.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 26.36 | 19.79 | -24.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 53,878 | 56,229 | 4.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.0% | 4.5% | -11.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 9.2 | 7.3 | -20.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 948 | 926 | 2.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -24.9% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HPQ | -24.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 28.1% | 55.6% |
| Sector (XLK) | 55.9% | 50.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -24.0% change in HPQ stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -27.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 26.05 | 19.79 | -24.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 59,710 | 56,229 | -5.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.3% | 4.5% | 3.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 10.0 | 7.3 | -27.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 989 | 926 | 6.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -24.0% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HPQ | -24.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 79.8% | 47.1% |
| Sector (XLK) | 116.4% | 41.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HPQ Return | 57% | -26% | 16% | 12% | -29% | -8% | -1% |
| Peers Return | 35% | -28% | 59% | 12% | -9% | 7% | 69% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 4% | 89% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HPQ Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 75% | 33% | 25% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 31% | 71% | 58% | 44% | 44% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HPQ Max Drawdown | -2% | -33% | -2% | -7% | -32% | -18% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -10% | -36% | -8% | -18% | -39% | -24% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: DELL, AAPL, XRX, MSFT. See HPQ Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/24/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HPQ | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -38.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -43.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 78.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 261 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -39.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 487 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -52.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 109.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 381 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to DELL, AAPL, XRX, MSFT
In The Past
HP's stock fell -38.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/1/2022. A -38.8% loss requires a 63.4% gain to breakeven.
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About HP (HPQ)
AI Analysis | Feedback
HPQ is like a blend of Dell's personal computer business and Canon's printing and imaging business.
Imagine Dell, but also owning a massive printer and supplies business similar to Epson or Canon.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Personal Computers: Desktop and notebook computers for both consumers and commercial clients.
- Workstations: High-performance computers designed for demanding professional tasks.
- Thin Clients: Streamlined computing devices that rely on a central server for processing.
- Commercial Mobility Devices: Portable computing devices tailored for business and enterprise use.
- Retail Point-of-Sale (POS) Systems: Integrated hardware and software solutions for processing retail transactions.
- Displays and Peripherals: External monitors, keyboards, mice, and other accessories that enhance computer functionality.
- Software for Personal Systems: Applications and operating system components bundled with or sold for HP's personal computing devices.
- Personal Systems Support and Services: Technical assistance, maintenance, and lifecycle management for personal computers and related devices.
- Printers: A range of hardware, including inkjet and laser printers, for consumer and commercial use.
- Printer Supplies: Consumables such as ink cartridges, toner, and paper necessary for printer operation.
- Printing Solutions and Services: Comprehensive offerings including managed print services, document management, and technical support for printing environments.
AI Analysis | Feedback
HP Inc. (HPQ) serves a broad customer base that includes both individuals and organizations. It does not primarily sell to a small number of specific other companies but rather directly to end-users across various sectors. Therefore, the major customers can be categorized as:
- Individual consumers
- Small- and medium-sized businesses
- Large enterprises, including customers in the government, health, and education sectors
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are major suppliers for HP Inc. (HPQ):
- Intel Corporation (INTC)
- Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD)
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
- Micron Technology, Inc. (MU)
- Western Digital Corporation (WDC)
- LG Display Co., Ltd. (LPL)
- Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., Ltd. (Foxconn) (2317.TW)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Bruce Broussard, Interim Chief Executive Officer
Bruce Broussard was appointed Interim CEO of HP Inc. in February 2026. He brings over 30 years of leadership experience at public companies, including more than a decade as President and CEO of Humana Inc., where he spearheaded a multi-year digital and analytics transformation. Prior to Humana, he held various leadership roles, including Chief Financial Officer, Chief Executive Officer, and Chairman of the Board, during an 11-year tenure at US Oncology. Following US Oncology's sale to McKesson, he became President of McKesson's Specialty Pharmacy Division. His background also includes extensive experience in venture capital and private equity, having served as a Venture Partner at Define Ventures, a fund focused on early-stage digital health companies.
Karen Parkhill, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Karen Parkhill joined HP Inc. as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective August 5, 2024. She has over 13 years of experience as a CFO at publicly traded companies. Before joining HP, she served as CFO of Medtronic, a global healthcare technology company, and prior to that, she was Vice Chairman and CFO of Comerica. Parkhill began her career in 1992 at JP Morgan in investment banking, where she spent 19 years in various roles, including CFO of commercial banking from 2007 to 2011 and managing director of investment banking from 2001 to 2007.
Ketan Patel, President, Personal Systems
Ketan Patel was appointed President of HP Inc.'s Personal Systems business, effective November 1, 2025. With over three decades in the technology industry, he possesses extensive experience in business transformation, operational excellence, and market expansion. Patel has held a range of global leadership roles, including in Asia Pacific and India, and most recently served as Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer for Personal Systems at HP Inc. for three years, overseeing end-to-end business operations across consumer and commercial portfolios.
Tuan Tran, President, Technology & Innovation
Tuan Tran serves as President of Technology & Innovation at HP Inc., a role established in November 2024 to guide the company's technology strategy and accelerate AI implementation. Previously, he was President of HP Inc. Imaging, Printing & Solutions, a $20 billion global business. Tran joined HP in 1991 and has held various senior leadership positions in marketing, finance, and operations across different divisions, including the LaserJet Hardware & Technology Organization, Consumer Business Organization, Mobile Computing Division, and Business Printing Division in Singapore. He played an instrumental role in the acquisition of Samsung Printing.
Carol Surface, Chief People Officer
Carol Surface was appointed Chief People Officer at HP Inc., with her tenure starting on March 24, 2025. She previously served as Chief People Officer at Apple. Before her time at Apple, Surface spent a decade as Chief Human Resources Officer at Medtronic, a global healthcare technology leader, where she led transformation initiatives to drive growth and evolve the HR operating model. Her career also includes senior leadership roles as Chief Human Resources Officer at Best Buy and HR leadership positions for PepsiCo in New York, Hong Kong, and Dubai.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key risks to HP Inc.'s business:
-
Declining Printing Business and Supplies Revenue: HP's Printing segment faces significant structural headwinds, with a persistent decline in both hardware and high-margin supplies net revenue. This ongoing decline in a historically profitable segment acts as a drag on the company's overall revenue and profitability.
-
Intense Competition and Rapid Technological Changes: Operating in the highly competitive technology sector, HP is constantly challenged by established players like Dell and Lenovo, as well as emerging companies. This intense competition leads to pricing pressures, potential reductions in profit margins, and challenges in maintaining or expanding market share. Furthermore, the rapid pace of technological advancements risks making products or technologies quickly obsolete, necessitating continuous investment in research and development to remain relevant and align with evolving customer needs, such as the shift towards AI-driven PCs.
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Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Risks: HP's business is highly sensitive to global economic conditions, particularly in its personal computing and printing markets, which are cyclical. Economic downturns, inflationary pressures, cautious commercial and consumer spending, and fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates can significantly reduce demand for its products and services, negatively impacting revenue and profitability. Additionally, geopolitical risks, including trade policies, tariffs on imports, and regional conflicts, can disrupt operations and supply chains, increasing costs and further affecting financial performance.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The accelerating global shift towards digital transformation and paperless environments poses a clear emerging threat, particularly to HP's Printing segment. As businesses and individual consumers increasingly adopt digital documents, cloud-based workflows, and electronic communication, the fundamental demand for physical printing hardware and, more significantly, the highly profitable associated supplies (ink and toner), is likely to diminish over time. This trend represents a secular decline in the core market for a significant portion of HP's business, akin to how streaming services disrupted physical media consumption.
AI Analysis | Feedback
HP Inc. operates in substantial addressable markets for its main products and services globally.
-
The global personal computers market, encompassing desktops, notebooks, and workstations, was estimated at USD 235.85 billion in 2025. It is projected to grow to USD 252.27 billion in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.0%, and is expected to reach USD 317.69 billion by 2030 at a CAGR of 5.9%.
-
The global PC peripheral input devices market, which includes various accessories for personal computing, was calculated at USD 46.72 billion in 2025. This market is predicted to increase to USD 48.74 billion in 2026 and is estimated to reach approximately USD 71.32 billion by 2035, expanding at a CAGR of 4.32% from 2026 to 2035.
-
The global printers market, covering consumer and commercial printer hardware, supplies, solutions, and services, was estimated at USD 75.1 billion in 2024. The market is expected to grow from USD 78.5 billion in 2025 to USD 123.1 billion in 2034, at a CAGR of 5.1%.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for HP Inc. (HPQ)
HP Inc. is focusing on several key areas to drive its revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, leveraging evolving market demands and strategic initiatives:
- AI PCs and Windows 11 Refresh Cycle: A significant driver for HP's Personal Systems segment is the accelerating adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) PCs, which are expected to command higher average selling prices (ASPs). AI PCs are rapidly increasing their share of HP's total PC shipments, surpassing initial expectations. This trend is further bolstered by the ongoing Windows 11 refresh cycle, which is contributing to sustained demand for new personal computing devices.
- Expansion of Subscription Services: HP is actively growing its subscription-based services, such as Instant Ink, with plans to expand offerings to include toner and printing paper, and to target small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs). This strategy aims to create more predictable and recurring revenue streams, building on the substantial growth in subscribers and revenue seen in its existing services.
- Growth in Gaming PCs and Premium Segments: The company is experiencing robust growth in its gaming PC sector, particularly in emerging markets. HP is also strategically shifting its product mix towards higher-value segments, including commercial premium devices and services, which enhances average selling prices and profitability within its Personal Systems business.
- Workforce Solutions and Hybrid Work Offerings: HP is enhancing its workforce solutions, including through strategic acquisitions like Vyopta, to meet the evolving needs of the hybrid workforce. These initiatives aim to bolster its platform with advanced analytics for collaboration management and other services, aligning with its "Future of Work" strategy.
- Advancements in 3D Printing and Industrial Graphics: HP is investing in and developing its 3D printing segment, introducing new materials and optimization software designed to reduce build costs and expand capabilities. The company also sees momentum in industrial graphics, contributing to its specialized printing revenue.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- HP executed significant share repurchases, with $6.2 billion in fiscal year 2021 and $4.3 billion in fiscal year 2022.
- In fiscal year 2024, the company repurchased approximately 62.7 million shares of common stock for $2.1 billion.
- For fiscal year 2025, annual share buybacks totaled $800 million, and the company indicated it expects to return approximately 100% of free cash flow to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases for fiscal year 2024.
Share Issuance
- HP has not engaged in significant share issuances over the last 3-5 years; instead, the company's net common equity issued/repurchased figures for fiscal years 2023, 2024, and 2025 were negative, indicating net repurchases.
- The number of outstanding shares has consistently decreased, from approximately 1.08 billion in fiscal year 2021 to 921 million in fiscal year 2025, and 917.98 million as of March 2026, primarily due to ongoing buyback programs.
Outbound Investments
- In 2022, HP completed the acquisition of Poly, aiming to build a more growth-oriented portfolio.
- HP strategically expands its market footprint through acquisitions and strategic partnerships to remain at the forefront of the evolving technology landscape.
- The company is focused on building a growth-oriented portfolio, specifically targeting opportunities in Gaming, Hybrid Systems, Workforce Services & Solutions, Consumer Subscriptions, and Industrial Graphics and 3D businesses.
Capital Expenditures
- HP's capital expenditures for fiscal year 2025 were $897 million, following $592 million in fiscal year 2024 and $593 million in fiscal year 2023.
- The capital expenditures for fiscal years ending October 2021 to 2025 averaged $685.8 million, peaking in October 2025.
- These investments are primarily focused on maintaining long-term growth, strengthening the core business, accelerating expansion in services, building new operational capabilities, and improving IT infrastructure.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
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| 03312026 | PANW | Palo Alto Networks | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03312026 | ALKT | Alkami Technology | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | DBX | Dropbox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.6% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | DLB | Dolby Laboratories | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.5% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | PTC | PTC | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.5% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| 04302022 | HPQ | HP | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -22.3% | -16.1% | -31.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 216.09 |
| Mkt Cap | 142.6 |
| Rev LTM | 113,538 |
| Op Inc LTM | 8,251 |
| FCF LTM | 8,552 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 5,447 |
| CFO LTM | 11,185 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 8,127 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 16.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.7% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 12.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 7.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 142.6 |
| P/S | 1.3 |
| P/Op Inc | 17.3 |
| P/EBIT | 16.2 |
| P/E | 24.0 |
| P/CFO | 12.8 |
| Total Yield | 4.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.8% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 12.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 3.5% |
| 6M Rtn | -18.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 10.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 57.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -0.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -25.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -19.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -21.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Personal Systems | 36,195 | 35,684 | 44,011 | 43,359 | 38,997 |
| Printing | 17,338 | 18,029 | 18,902 | 20,128 | 17,641 |
| Corporate Investments | 25 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| Other | 1 | -2 | -5 | -3 | -1 |
| Total | 53,559 | 53,718 | 62,910 | 63,487 | 56,639 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Printing | 3,290 | 3,399 | 3,619 | 3,636 | 2,495 |
| Personal Systems | 2,253 | 2,129 | 2,761 | 3,101 | 2,312 |
| Certain litigation charges | -58 | ||||
| Acquisition and divestiture charges | -83 | -240 | -318 | -68 | -16 |
| Corporate Investments | -132 | -142 | -230 | -96 | -69 |
| Restructuring and other charges | -301 | -527 | -218 | -245 | -462 |
| Amortization of intangible assets | -318 | -350 | -228 | -154 | -113 |
| Corporate and unallocated costs and other | -381 | -375 | -461 | -542 | -407 |
| Stock-based compensation expense | -452 | -438 | -343 | -330 | -278 |
| Russia exit charges | 0 | -23 | |||
| Total | 3,818 | 3,456 | 4,559 | 5,302 | 3,462 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Personal Systems | 22,378 | 18,791 | 19,633 | 18,126 | 14,697 |
| Printing | 16,457 | 15,955 | 14,507 | 14,744 | 14,170 |
| Corporate and unallocated assets | 893 | 2,082 | 4,163 | 5,569 | 5,811 |
| Corporate Investments | 181 | 176 | 191 | 171 | 3 |
| Total | 39,909 | 37,004 | 38,494 | 38,610 | 34,681 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $19.79 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 18.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/02/1962 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -30.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $18.90 | $22.95 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | 4.7% | -13.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 36.5% | 34.0% |
| Downside Capture | -0.03 | 0.62 |
| Upside Capture | 10.91 | 54.72 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 11.7% | 37.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.03 | 0.55 | 0.59 | 0.98 | 1.23 | 1.06 |
| Up Beta | -0.00 | 1.30 | 1.26 | 0.98 | 1.20 | 0.94 |
| Down Beta | 0.61 | 1.61 | 1.21 | 1.54 | 1.56 | 1.17 |
| Up Capture | 0% | 11% | -20% | 27% | 63% | 76% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 22 | 29 | 59 | 122 | 381 |
| Down Capture | -33% | -1% | 54% | 106% | 116% | 105% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 20 | 34 | 67 | 130 | 367 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HPQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HPQ | -15.6% | 34.1% | -0.45 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 62.8% | 20.7% | 2.25 | 30.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 34.0% | 12.6% | 2.05 | 38.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 42.9% | 27.2% | 1.29 | -5.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 46.4% | 18.0% | 1.97 | 4.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.2% | 13.3% | 0.74 | 24.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -16.6% | 42.1% | -0.32 | 22.3% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HPQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HPQ | -6.8% | 34.5% | -0.13 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 18.5% | 24.8% | 0.67 | 51.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.7% | 17.1% | 0.58 | 55.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.2% | 17.8% | 0.97 | 4.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.5% | 19.1% | 0.62 | 17.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.7% | 18.8% | 0.10 | 39.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.0% | 56.3% | 0.34 | 22.2% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HPQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HPQ | 8.3% | 34.5% | 0.32 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 23.2% | 24.4% | 0.87 | 55.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 61.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.9% | 15.9% | 0.73 | 3.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.1% | 17.8% | 0.47 | 25.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 45.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.3% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 15.0% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/3/2026 | 4.3% | 4.3% | 1.8% |
| 11/25/2025 | -1.4% | 6.5% | -4.7% |
| 8/27/2025 | 4.6% | 6.7% | -0.5% |
| 5/28/2025 | -8.3% | -7.4% | -7.9% |
| 2/27/2025 | -6.8% | -9.5% | -14.9% |
| 11/26/2024 | -11.4% | -7.0% | -14.2% |
| 8/28/2024 | 2.0% | -1.0% | 2.7% |
| 5/29/2024 | 17.0% | 8.6% | 7.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 13 | 10 |
| # Negative | 13 | 11 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 3.9% | 4.3% | 8.4% |
| Median Negative | -6.6% | -4.6% | -7.2% |
| Max Positive | 17.0% | 13.3% | 17.8% |
| Max Negative | -12.3% | -11.7% | -18.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 01/31/2026 | 02/25/2026 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2025 | 12/10/2025 | 10-K |
| 07/31/2025 | 08/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2025 | 05/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2025 | 02/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2024 | 12/13/2024 | 10-K |
| 07/31/2024 | 08/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 05/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2024 | 02/28/2024 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2023 | 12/18/2023 | 10-K |
| 07/31/2023 | 09/11/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 05/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2023 | 03/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2022 | 12/06/2022 | 10-K |
| 07/31/2022 | 09/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2022 | 06/03/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 2/24/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 GAAP EPS | 0.52 | 0.55 | 0.58 | 0 | Same New | Actual: 0.55 for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Non-GAAP EPS | 0.7 | 0.73 | 0.76 | 0 | Same New | Actual: 0.73 for Q1 2026 | |
| 2026 GAAP EPS | 2.47 | 2.62 | 2.77 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.62 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP EPS | 2.9 | 3.05 | 3.2 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.05 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | 2.80 Bil | 2.90 Bil | 3.00 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.90 Bil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 11/25/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 GAAP Diluted EPS | 0.58 | 0.62 | 0.66 | ||||
| Q1 2026 Non-GAAP Diluted EPS | 0.73 | 0.77 | 0.81 | ||||
| 2026 GAAP Diluted EPS | 2.47 | 2.62 | 2.77 | ||||
| 2026 Non-GAAP Diluted EPS | 2.9 | 3.05 | 3.2 | ||||
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | 2.80 Bil | 2.90 Bil | 3.00 Bil | 3.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 2.80 Bil for 2025 | |
HPQ Trade Sentinel
AVOID (Score 1-2)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The stock scores a 1, indicating it should be avoided. Despite passing the forensic gate, the fundamental analysis reveals a business with a negative risk/reward skew. The competitive moat is eroding as HP loses market share to key rivals, and its low valuation is a justified reflection of a structurally challenged business (a 'value trap'). The combination of an eroding moat, a high decay penalty, and a negative payoff asymmetry results in the lowest possible conviction score.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Type C: 'Cyclical Opportunity' (Primary) / Type E: 'Deep Value' (Secondary)The investment thesis is primarily driven by timing a cyclical event (the AI PC refresh), making it a Type C. However, it also involves a company managing a structurally declining, high-margin legacy business (Printing) while facing intense competition, which aligns with the management execution and asset floor focus of a Type E.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary catalyst for HP is the enterprise and consumer upgrade cycle to 'AI PCs', accelerated by the end-of-life for Windows 10. This cycle is expected to drive higher unit volumes and, more importantly, increase Average Selling Prices (ASPs), leading to a re-acceleration of revenue growth in the Personal Systems segment, which now constitutes 71% of total revenue.
- Personal Systems revenue grew 11% YoY in Q1 FY2026, driven by a 12% increase in unit shipments.
- Management stated that AI PCs exceeded 35% of total PC shipments in Q1 FY2026, indicating strong initial adoption.
- The AI PC cycle provides a compelling reason for enterprises to upgrade fleets, potentially shortening the historically elongating refresh cycle.
PRIMARY RISK
A severe, cyclical inflation in key component costs, specifically DRAM and NAND memory, threatens to completely offset any benefits from the AI PC revenue uplift. Management has already guided that Personal Systems operating margins will remain below their long-term target range for the rest of FY2026 due to these headwinds, putting the quality of the earnings recovery at significant risk.
- Personal Systems operating margin was only 5.0% in Q1 FY2026, failing to meet the market's reward threshold of >6.0% despite strong revenue growth.
- Management explicitly guided for Personal Systems operating margins to be below their long-term range for the remainder of fiscal 2026.
- Market data indicates DRAM contract prices surged dramatically in Q1 2026, confirming the input cost pressure is real and ongoing.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Personal Systems Operating Margin % | > 5.5% | This is the single most critical metric. It measures HP's ability to translate the AI PC revenue cycle into actual profit amidst severe component cost inflation. Failure to hold the line here breaks the bull thesis. |
| PC Unit Market Share (vs. Lenovo/Dell) | Stabilization (No further share loss) | HP must demonstrate it can hold its ground during this critical refresh cycle. Continued share loss to its primary competitors would confirm the moat is broken and the business is structurally disadvantaged. |
| Printing Supplies Revenue Growth YoY | > -3% | While decline is expected, an acceleration of the decline in this high-margin, cash-cow business would severely impact overall company FCF and profitability, removing the valuation floor. |
The AI PC Cycle: Profit Catalyst or Margin Trap?
BULL VIEW
The AI PC upgrade cycle is driving higher volumes and ASPs, allowing HP to absorb costs and deliver earnings at the high end of guidance.
CORE TENSION
Can the AI PC refresh cycle generate profitable growth, or will severe component cost inflation destroy margins, rendering the revenue uplift meaningless?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Personal Systems operating margin was only 5.0% in Q1 FY2026, failing the >6.0% market reward threshold despite strong +11% YoY revenue growth. This supports the Bear stance.
BEAR VIEW
Intense DRAM/NAND cost inflation will compress Personal Systems margins below 5.5%, offsetting revenue gains and proving the business model is broken.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late May 2026 (Est. May 27, 2026) | Q2 FY2026 Earnings Call Watch: Personal Systems Operating Margin. Watch if it drops further from the 5.0% baseline established in Q1, against management's warning. |
Early July 2026 | Q2 2026 PC Shipment Data Release Watch: HP's PC unit shipment growth vs. Dell/Lenovo. Watch for continued market share loss vs. Q1 when HP declined while peers grew. |
Late August 2026 | Q3 FY2026 Earnings Call Watch: Printing Supplies Revenue Growth. Must remain better than the -3% threshold to show the cash cow business is not deteriorating faster than expected. |
June-September 2026 | Memory Supplier Earnings Calls (e.g., Micron) Watch: Forward guidance on DRAM/NAND pricing. Watch for commentary on whether contract price surges of 50%+ are expected to continue into H2 2026. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2025-10-31 | Fiscal Year 2025 End Details: End of the fiscal year for HP, marking the conclusion of a period where the company navigated cyclical PC demand and ongoing declines in the printing segment. | Flat (0.58%) $26.75 -> $26.90 |
2025-11-25 | Q4 FY2025 Earnings Release Details: Reported full-year 2025 revenue of $55.3 billion (+3.2% YoY) and non-GAAP EPS of $3.12. Personal Systems revenue grew 8% YoY to $10.4 billion. | Muted (-0.25%) $23.70 -> $23.65 |
2026-01-13 | IDC Releases Full-Year 2025 PC Sales Data Details: IDC reported HP was the second largest PC maker in 2025 with 8.4% YoY unit growth, but warned of a volatile and uncertain 2026 due to rising memory costs. | Muted (-0.47%) $20.84 -> $20.74 |
2026-02-24 | Q1 FY2026 Earnings Release Details: Reported Q1 EPS of $0.81 beat estimates. However, Personal Systems operating margin was only 5.0%, and the company guided for full-year EPS toward the low end of its range. | Muted (-0.82%) $18.05 -> $17.90 |
2026-03-24 | New LaserJet Portfolio Launch Details: HP introduced a new LaserJet portfolio featuring quantum-resistant security, targeting its high-margin enterprise printing segment with enhanced security features. | Modest 1.94% gain $18.53 -> $18.89 |
2026-04-16 | Annual Meeting of Stockholders Details: HP held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders. No major strategic shifts were announced, but the event served as a routine update for investors. | Rose significantly by 2.55% $19.23 -> $19.72 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Volatility is spiking and fundamentals are deteriorating. The Bearish sentiment, eroding moat, and low visibility warrant a minimal position despite the seemingly cheap valuation.
Diversification Alternatives
DELL
INDUSTRYUnlike HP, Dell is gaining market share in PCs and has a stronger position in high-performance commercial workstations and AI servers, providing a better growth narrative.
LOGI
SECTORLogitech is a pure-play on PC peripherals, benefiting from the same hardware refresh cycle but with a stronger brand moat and higher margins, avoiding direct PC manufacturing risks.
HP is navigating a transition from a seller of commoditized PC & Print hardware to a more resilient company driven by the 'AI PC' hardware refresh cycle and growth in profitable commercial services, despite secular declines in printing.
Filter all news through the lens of the AI PC adoption cycle and its impact on margins, versus the structural decline in the high-margin printing supplies business.
Personal Systems revenue growth accelerating above 10% YoY; management commentary confirming AI PCs are driving higher ASPs and margins; market share gains in premium commercial PC segments (vs. Lenovo and Dell); stabilization or positive growth in Printing supplies revenue.
PC unit growth fails to translate into margin expansion due to rising memory costs; a faster-than-expected decline in Printing supplies revenue (>-5% YoY); loss of commercial PC market share to Dell or Lenovo; failure of the AI PC cycle to materialize in enterprise refresh orders.
Minor quarterly fluctuations in consumer PC or printer hardware sales - the core profit drivers are commercial PCs and printing supplies; individual product reviews - market share trends are more important; announcements of new, non-core subscription services - unlikely to move the needle in the near-term.
Repricing Catalyst
The primary catalyst is the enterprise and consumer upgrade to 'AI PCs', driven by the end-of-life for Windows 10 and the introduction of new on-device AI capabilities. Management stated AI PCs exceeded 35% of shipments in Q1 FY2026, fueling an 11% YoY revenue growth in the Personal Systems segment. This hardware refresh is the main driver expected to increase ASPs and re-accelerate profitable growth.
Personal Systems (PCs & Laptops)
$41.2B TTM (71% of Total) · 5.0% MarginWhat It Is
Commercial and Consumer PCs and Laptops (EliteBook, ProBook, Pavilion, Envy, Spectre series), Workstations (Z series), and gaming systems (OMEN).
Who Pays & How
Enterprises and public sector clients pay for large fleets of reliable and secure PCs (e.g., EliteBook series) for their workforce, valuing fleet manageability and security features like HP Wolf Security. Consumers pay for a range of devices from budget to premium. No single customer accounts for more than 10% of revenue (FY2023 10-K).
Competition
Printing (Hardware & Supplies)
$16.8B TTM (29% of Total) · 18.3% MarginWhat It Is
LaserJet and DeskJet printers, and associated high-margin ink and toner supplies. Also includes commercial printing solutions and subscription services like HP+.
Who Pays & How
Businesses and consumers purchase printers (a 'razor') and are then locked into purchasing corresponding high-margin ink/toner supplies (the 'blades') over the life of the device. This recurring supplies revenue is the primary profit driver.
Competition
Industry Resources
| Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Resources |
| The Verge |
| TechRadar |
| Tom’s Hardware |
| PCMag |
| CNET |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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