Warner Music (WMG)
Market Price (10/13/2026): $28.64 | Market Cap: $14.9 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Movies & Entertainment
Warner Music (WMG)
Market Price (10/13/2026): $28.64Market Cap: $14.9 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Movies & Entertainment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.2%, Dividend Yield is 2.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.3% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Content & Streaming, Social Media & Creator Economy, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Music Streaming, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -39%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -87% | Key risksWMG key risks include [1] an over-dependence on a limited number of digital music services for revenue, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.2%, Dividend Yield is 2.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.3% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Content & Streaming, Social Media & Creator Economy, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Music Streaming, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -39%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -87% |
| Key risksWMG key risks include [1] an over-dependence on a limited number of digital music services for revenue, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Warner Music (WMG) stock has gained about 5% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q3 2026 Earnings Beat. Warner Music Group reported robust financial results for its fiscal third quarter ended June 30, 2026, significantly exceeding analyst expectations. The company announced an adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $0.51, which surpassed the consensus estimate of $0.34 by $0.17. Additionally, total revenue increased by 10.4% year-over-year to $1.86 billion, outperforming analyst forecasts of $1.81 billion. This strong performance, released on August 5, 2026, signaled operational strength and boosted investor confidence.
2. Double-Digit Growth in Subscription Streaming and Favorable Deal Terms. A core driver of the positive trend was the sustained double-digit growth in Recorded Music subscription streaming revenue, which rose 10.8% year-over-year in constant currency to $758 million during fiscal Q3 2026. This increase was attributed to positive market share trends and improved deal economics with Digital Service Provider (DSP) partners, demonstrating successful strategic execution in a crucial segment of the music industry.
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Warner Music (WMG) stock has gained about 5% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q3 2026 Earnings Beat. Warner Music Group reported robust financial results for its fiscal third quarter ended June 30, 2026, significantly exceeding analyst expectations. The company announced an adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $0.51, which surpassed the consensus estimate of $0.34 by $0.17. Additionally, total revenue increased by 10.4% year-over-year to $1.86 billion, outperforming analyst forecasts of $1.81 billion. This strong performance, released on August 5, 2026, signaled operational strength and boosted investor confidence.
2. Double-Digit Growth in Subscription Streaming and Favorable Deal Terms. A core driver of the positive trend was the sustained double-digit growth in Recorded Music subscription streaming revenue, which rose 10.8% year-over-year in constant currency to $758 million during fiscal Q3 2026. This increase was attributed to positive market share trends and improved deal economics with Digital Service Provider (DSP) partners, demonstrating successful strategic execution in a crucial segment of the music industry.
3. Significant Margin Expansion and Positive Profitability Outlook. Warner Music Group achieved substantial operational efficiency, with operating income increasing 80% to $305 million in fiscal Q3 2026 compared to $169 million in the prior-year quarter. The Adjusted OIBDA margin expanded by 1.1 percentage points to 23.2%. The company reiterated its expectation to meet the high end of its 150-200 basis points full-year margin expansion guidance for fiscal 2026, indicating a continued focus on and success in improving profitability.
4. Strategic Investments in AI and Technology for Future Growth. The company's strategic initiatives in technology and artificial intelligence (AI) contributed to a positive long-term outlook. This includes the opening of a new Technology and Engineering Hub in Bengaluru on September 30, 2026, dedicated to advancing AI capabilities and global systems. Furthermore, an existing partnership with Suno AI, which established a framework for licensed AI music creation, is expected to begin contributing quantifiable AI licensing revenue, with initial details anticipated during the upcoming fiscal Q4 2026 earnings call.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 6.6% change in WMG stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 45.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 6302026 | 10122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 26.87 | 28.65 | 6.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 7,129 | 7,304 | 2.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.3% | 9.2% | 45.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 31.0 | 22.2 | -28.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 522 | 522 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 6.6% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2026 to 10/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WMG | 6.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.2% | -8.2% |
| Sector (XLC) | 4.0% | 33.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 13.6% change in WMG stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 107.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 10122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 25.21 | 28.65 | 13.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6,881 | 7,304 | 6.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.4% | 9.2% | 107.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 43.2 | 22.2 | -48.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 522 | 522 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 13.6% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 10/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WMG | 13.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.0% | 7.8% |
| Sector (XLC) | 0.8% | 33.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -13.7% change in WMG stock from 9/30/2025 to 10/12/2026 was primarily driven by a -61.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 10122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 33.20 | 28.65 | -13.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6,469 | 7,304 | 12.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.6% | 9.2% | 100.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 58.3 | 22.2 | -61.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 521 | 522 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -13.7% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 10/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WMG | -13.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 17.8% | 17.5% |
| Sector (XLC) | -5.0% | 35.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -2.1% change in WMG stock from 9/30/2023 to 10/12/2026 was primarily driven by a -37.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302023 | 10122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 29.26 | 28.65 | -2.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,948 | 7,304 | 22.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.2% | 9.2% | 28.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 35.4 | 22.2 | -37.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 516 | 522 | -1.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -2.1% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2023 to 10/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WMG | -2.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 88.3% | 29.5% |
| Sector (XLC) | 75.4% | 37.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| WMG Return | 15% | -17% | 4% | -11% | 1% | -5% | -15% |
| Peers Return | 63% | -42% | 34% | 38% | 10% | 20% | 132% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| WMG Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 58% | 42% | 58% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 25% | 42% | 67% | 50% | 70% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| WMG Max Drawdown | -18% | -49% | -37% | -25% | -28% | -28% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -19% | -47% | -22% | -18% | -28% | -12% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: LYV.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/12/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | WMG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 361 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -28.1% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.1% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 88 days | 31 days |
In The Past
Warner Music's stock fell -26.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 35.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | WMG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 361 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -28.1% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.1% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 88 days | 31 days |
In The Past
Warner Music's stock fell -26.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 35.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Warner Music (WMG)
Warner Music Group (WMG) is a prominent global music entertainment company primarily operating through two key segments: Recorded Music and Music Publishing. At its core, WMG is involved in identifying, developing, and promoting musical talent worldwide, as well as managing and monetizing an extensive library of songs and compositions across various genres.
The Recorded Music segment is responsible for discovering and nurturing recording artists. Under an umbrella of well-known labels such as Warner Records and Atlantic Records, this segment handles the entire lifecycle of an artist's music, from marketing and promotion to global distribution, sales, and licensing. Its main products are recorded music and video, which are sold and distributed to a broad array of customers through retailers, wholesale distributors, online physical retailers, and digital platforms including streaming and download services.
The Music Publishing segment focuses on owning and administering the rights to a vast catalog of approximately one million musical compositions, spanning numerous genres from pop and rock to classical and hip-hop. This segment works with around 100,000 songwriters and composers, licensing their works for use in films, television shows, commercials, and by other recording artists. It also manages music and soundtracks for third-party television and film producers, ensuring that composers and rights holders are compensated for the commercial use of their musical intellectual property.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Warner Music (WMG):
- Penguin Random House for music
- Universal Pictures for music
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Here are the major services provided by Warner Music Group (WMG):
- Recorded Music Production & Artist Management: Warner Music discovers, develops, markets, promotes, and manages the careers of recording artists, producing and bringing their music to market.
- Music Distribution & Sales: The company distributes and sells recorded music and video content through various channels, including physical retailers, online platforms, and streaming services.
- Recorded Music Licensing: Warner Music licenses its vast catalog of recorded music for use in various media, generating royalties and other licensing fees.
- Music Publishing & Rights Administration: This segment owns, acquires, and administers the rights to musical compositions for songwriters and composers, including managing rights for film and television soundtracks.
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Warner Music Group (WMG) primarily sells to other companies that then distribute or license its music and compositions to individual consumers. Its major customers include:
- Spotify Technology S.A. (NYSE: SPOT)
- Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL)
- Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN)
- Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL)
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Robert Kyncl, Chief Executive Officer, Warner Music Group
Mr. Kyncl joined Warner Music Group as Chief Executive Officer on January 1, 2023. He previously served as the Chief Business Officer of YouTube for 12 years, where he was responsible for creative and commercial partnerships, product operations, and marketing. At YouTube, he led the development of the creator ecosystem and original content initiatives, and oversaw the launch of paid subscription services like YouTube Music, YouTube Premium, and YouTube TV. Before YouTube, Mr. Kyncl spent seven years at Netflix, where he spearheaded the company's expansion into streaming film and television content. He began his career at a talent agency, then worked for HBO International, and a kids' entertainment start-up called ALFY.
Armin Zerza, Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer, Warner Music Group
Mr. Zerza joined Warner Music Group as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective May 5, 2025. Prior to joining WMG, he served as Chief Financial Officer of Activision Blizzard, beginning in 2021, and also held the role of Chief Commercial Officer. Mr. Zerza played a pivotal role in Activision Blizzard's acquisition by Microsoft. Before Activision Blizzard, he accumulated over two decades of senior leadership experience at Procter & Gamble, where he held various CFO positions across different divisions and on the global M&A team.
Carianne Marshall, Co-Chair & COO, Warner Chappell Music
Ms. Marshall serves as the Co-Chair and Chief Operating Officer of Warner Chappell Music.
Guy Moot, Co-Chair & CEO, Warner Chappell Music
Mr. Moot holds the position of Co-Chair and Chief Executive Officer of Warner Chappell Music.
Carletta Higginson, Executive Vice President & Chief Digital Officer, Warner Music Group
Ms. Higginson is the Executive Vice President and Chief Digital Officer for Warner Music Group, overseeing the company's global digital partnerships and exploring commercial innovation. Before joining WMG, she spent a decade at Google, where her most recent role was Global Head of Music Publishing at YouTube, leading the platform's licensing strategy.
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The key risks to Warner Music Group's (WMG) business are:
- Dependence on Digital Music Services and Streaming Platform Dominance: Warner Music Group heavily relies on a limited number of digital music services, such as Spotify and Apple Music, for the distribution and monetization of its music. This reliance exposes WMG to risks associated with changes in service terms, pricing structures, and the market dominance of these platforms. The increasing power of digital streaming platforms can lead to margin compression and affect royalty rates, impacting WMG's revenue streams and market position.
- Regulatory and Copyright Challenges, including Artificial Intelligence (AI): WMG operates within a complex legal framework concerning copyright laws and regulations, which directly impacts its business operations. Risks include potential changes in royalty rates, evolving data privacy laws, and new music regulations, particularly those affecting the streaming business. The emergence of AI-generated music poses a significant challenge, raising concerns about potential devaluation of WMG's catalog, pressure on royalty economics, and the unauthorized use of copyrighted works to train AI models. While WMG has engaged in litigation and licensing agreements to address AI-related infringements, this remains an evolving and complex risk.
- Intense Industry Competition: The music industry is highly competitive, with Warner Music Group constantly vying for market share and artist loyalty. WMG faces significant competition from other major record labels, such as Universal Music Group and Sony Music Entertainment, which often possess greater scale and resources. Additionally, the growing influence of independent labels and artist-services companies, often leveraging technology to offer more flexible deals, intensifies the competitive landscape. WMG's position as the "number three" major label can limit its bargaining power and scale efficiencies compared to its larger rivals.
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The rise of generative artificial intelligence (AI) tools capable of composing original music, generating lyrics, and simulating vocal performances presents a clear emerging threat. This technology could potentially devalue human-created musical intellectual property, introduce complex challenges to existing copyright and ownership models for both recorded music and compositions, and create an oversaturated market with AI-generated content. This directly impacts Warner Music Group's core business of discovering, developing, marketing, and monetizing music created by human artists and songwriters.
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For Warner Music Group (WMG), the addressable markets for its main products and services are as follows:
- Recorded Music: The global recorded music market reached US$29.6 billion in 2024. This market experienced its tenth consecutive year of growth, with every region showing an increase. Streaming continued to be the dominant revenue source, accounting for 69.0% of global recorded music revenues in 2024.
- Music Publishing: The global music publishing revenues accrued to music publishers and songwriters amounted to approximately US$17.1 billion (€15.8 billion) in 2023. While the global market value specifically for music publishers was €9.8 billion in 2023, the broader figure includes revenues from collective management organizations and direct licensing, reflecting the comprehensive scope of music publishing activities.
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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Warner Music (WMG) over the next 2-3 years:
- Growth in Subscription Streaming and Price Increases: Warner Music Group anticipates continued revenue growth from subscription streaming services. This growth is expected to be bolstered by ongoing price increases implemented by Digital Service Providers (DSPs). Management has noted that these agreements are shifting the industry towards price-driven growth, providing greater economic certainty.
- International Expansion in Emerging Markets: WMG is strategically focused on expanding its presence in high-growth international markets. This includes regions such as Brazil, which has shown significant growth in its recorded music market.
- Strategic Acquisitions and Catalog Monetization: The company plans to drive revenue by strategically acquiring independent labels and music catalogs. This strategy aims to bolster high-margin revenue streams and leverage advanced tools, including AI, to enhance and monetize existing music catalogs.
- Music Publishing Growth Across Digital, Performance, and Synchronization: Warner Music's Music Publishing segment is expected to continue its strong performance, with growth driven by digital deal renewals, particularly in the U.S. Additionally, increases in performance revenue from concerts, radio, and live events, along with synchronization revenue from higher television and commercial licensing activity, are anticipated to contribute significantly.
- AI Licensing and Partnerships: WMG is actively exploring and engaging in partnerships and licensing opportunities with artificial intelligence (AI) platforms. These agreements are structured around consumption-based, variable economics, with the company expecting AI initiatives to become a meaningful contributor to both revenue and margins in the coming years, particularly from fiscal year 2027 onwards.
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Share Repurchases
- In November 2024, Warner Music Group's Board of Directors authorized a new share repurchase program of up to $100 million in Class A common stock, intended to offset dilution from the Omnibus Incentive Plan.
- The company reported quarterly stock buybacks of $13.00 million for the period ending September 30, 2025.
Share Issuance
- For the six months ended March 31, 2025, WMG issued 1,738,018 shares of Class A Common Stock to settle deferred equity units under the Senior Management Free Cash Flow Plan.
- During the three and six months ended March 31, 2025, the company issued 730,903 and 794,789 shares of Class A Common Stock, respectively, to satisfy the vesting of Restricted Stock Units (RSUs) under the Omnibus Incentive Plan, net of shares used for employee income tax obligations.
Outbound Investments
- In July 2025, Warner Music Group and Bain Capital launched a 50-50 joint venture to acquire legendary music catalogs across recorded music and music publishing, with a total investment capacity of up to $1.2 billion. WMG and Bain Capital each committed $250 million in equity, supported by an initial debt facility of approximately $500 million, expandable to $700 million.
- In February 2025, WMG acquired a majority stake in Tempo Music, a music rights fund, marking its largest acquisition since early 2023. This acquisition included $302 million of subsidiary debt.
- WMG acquired 300 Entertainment for $400 million in December 2021.
Capital Expenditures
- For the fiscal year ended September 30, 2025, capital expenditures increased 20% to $139 million, up from $116 million in the prior fiscal year.
- In the fiscal first quarter ended December 31, 2025, capital expenditures decreased 44% to $20 million from $36 million in the prior-year quarter, primarily due to higher investments in technology in the earlier period.
- Capital expenditures frequently focus on investments in technology.
Peer Outperformance in Movies & Entertainment
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMG | Warner Music | 7.2% | 22.2x | -8.4% | -5.0% | -31.4% | — |
| IMAX | Imax | 5.9% | 69.4x | 65.7% | 191.4% | 147.8% | +179pp |
| MSGS | Madison Square Garden Sports | 9.3% | 1,256.4x | 87.2% | 128.0% | 122.3% | +154pp |
| BATRA | Atlanta Braves | 6.7% | -57.4x | 33.3% | 44.2% | 114.4% | +146pp |
| CNK | Cinemark | 6.4% | 19.6x | 44.9% | 121.5% | 90.2% | +122pp |
| MSGE | Madison Square Garden Entertainment | 7.8% | 57.2x | 91.0% | 149.6% | 16.0% | +47pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top null by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wireless Telecommunication Services | 3 | -18.9% | 12.7% | 37.4% | ECHO 271% · TMUS 37% |
| Publishing | 5 | 22.4% | 15.3% | 21.5% | NYT 34% · NWSA 29% |
| Integrated Telecommunication Services | 21 | -16.8% | -0.7% | -22.7% | GSAT 250% · AD 137% · TDS 109% |
| Movies & Entertainment ← | 24 | 9.6% | 63.6% | -33.4% | IMAX 148% · MSGS 122% · BATRA 114% |
| Alternative Carriers | 3 | -1.8% | 28.9% | -54.7% | IRDM 33% · LUMN -55% |
| Advertising | 19 | -22.9% | 3.1% | -59.3% | APP 211% · OMC 25% · STGW 11% |
| Interactive Home Entertainment | 8 | -32.6% | -19.5% | -70.9% | TTWO 22% · RBLX -31% · PINS -58% |
| Interactive Media & Services | 31 | -26.2% | -31.0% | -72.6% | GOOGL 161% · META 132% · CARG -17% |
| Broadcasting | 14 | -14.5% | -25.4% | -74.4% | FOXA 59% · NXST 28% · SIRI -51% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 99.15 |
| Mkt Cap | 27.2 |
| Rev LTM | 16,788 |
| Op Inc LTM | 974 |
| FCF LTM | 831 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 693 |
| CFO LTM | 1,774 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,345 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 11.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 5.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 7.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 27.2 |
| P/S | 1.8 |
| P/Op Inc | 32.0 |
| P/EBIT | 26.8 |
| P/E | 157.7 |
| P/CFO | 15.5 |
| Total Yield | 3.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.8% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recorded Music | 5,408 | 5,223 | 4,955 | 4,966 | 4,544 |
| Music Publishing | 1,306 | 1,210 | 1,088 | 958 | 761 |
| Corporate expenses and eliminations | -7 | -7 | -6 | -5 | -4 |
| Total | 6,707 | 6,426 | 6,037 | 5,919 | 5,301 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recorded Music | 850 | 916 | 875 | 1,046 | 975 |
| Music Publishing | 224 | 238 | 200 | 233 | 179 |
| Corporate expenses and eliminations | -380 | -331 | -285 | -130 | -136 |
| Amortization expense | -263 | -229 | |||
| Depreciation expense | -76 | -77 | |||
| Executive transition costs | 0 | 0 | |||
| Net gain on divestitures | 0 | 0 | |||
| Non-cash stock-based compensation and other related costs | -42 | -48 | |||
| Restructuring and impairments | -8 | -18 | |||
| Transformation initiatives and other related costs | -46 | -36 | |||
| COVID-19 related costs | -1 | ||||
| Total | 694 | 823 | 790 | 714 | 609 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recorded Music | 5,328 | 4,945 | 4,677 | 3,515 | 3,278 |
| Music Publishing | 3,463 | 3,017 | 2,781 | 2,954 | 2,843 |
| Corporate expenses and eliminations | 1,038 | 1,193 | 1,087 | 1,359 | 1,090 |
| Total | 9,829 | 9,155 | 8,545 | 7,828 | 7,211 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $28.65 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 14.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/03/2020 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -16.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $27.38 | $28.28 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | 4.6% | 1.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 34.7% | 34.2% |
| Downside Capture | 21.53 | 53.84 |
| Upside Capture | 41.71 | 34.29 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | -2.9% | 18.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.70 | 0.46 | -0.24 | 0.25 | 0.48 | 0.58 |
| Up Beta | -1.28 | -0.30 | -1.66 | -0.12 | 0.29 | 0.47 |
| Down Beta | 1.63 | 1.19 | 0.78 | 0.37 | 0.70 | 0.78 |
| Up Capture | 76% | 79% | 4% | 33% | 22% | 17% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 6 | 16 | 27 | 66 | 132 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 22 | 32 | 63 | 122 | 373 |
| Down Capture | 90% | 28% | -13% | 32% | 70% | 83% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 16 | 26 | 37 | 60 | 120 | 328 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 19 | 31 | 61 | 128 | 373 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with WMG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMG | -8.5% | 34.2% | -0.21 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | -2.1% | 16.0% | -0.33 | 35.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 17.0% | 13.0% | 0.93 | 17.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 4.6% | 29.5% | 0.15 | 12.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 48.0% | 20.9% | 1.77 | -17.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.2% | 13.8% | 0.19 | 30.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -32.3% | 44.3% | -0.76 | 16.0% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with WMG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMG | -6.3% | 34.5% | -0.13 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 8.0% | 21.0% | 0.29 | 45.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.1% | 17.1% | 0.63 | 38.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.3% | 18.9% | 0.78 | 6.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.9% | 19.5% | 0.39 | 0.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.5% | 18.8% | -0.03 | 32.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 11.0% | 52.0% | 0.39 | 21.6% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with WMG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMG | 0.8% | 34.9% | 0.12 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 9.2% | 22.1% | 0.46 | 41.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 37.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.8% | 16.4% | 0.58 | 7.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.3% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 5.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.6% | 20.7% | 0.18 | 28.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.4% | 66.2% | 1.03 | 20.4% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/8/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/5/2026 | 1.7% | -4.7% | 14.5% |
| 5/7/2026 | 7.5% | 5.7% | -2.8% |
| 2/5/2026 | 3.1% | 1.3% | -1.8% |
| 11/20/2025 | -2.7% | -8.2% | -1.9% |
| 8/7/2025 | 3.7% | 6.8% | 9.5% |
| 5/8/2025 | -7.9% | -9.4% | -11.8% |
| 2/6/2025 | -1.1% | 8.0% | 7.7% |
| 11/21/2024 | -7.4% | -4.7% | -7.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 11 | 11 |
| # Negative | 14 | 12 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 3.7% | 5.7% | 7.7% |
| Median Negative | -5.6% | -5.5% | -10.8% |
| Max Positive | 15.2% | 21.9% | 31.0% |
| Max Negative | -9.6% | -10.4% | -18.5% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/5/2026 | 1.7% | -4.7% | 14.5% |
| 5/7/2026 | 7.5% | 5.7% | -2.8% |
| 2/5/2026 | 3.1% | 1.3% | -1.8% |
| 11/20/2025 | -2.7% | -8.2% | -1.9% |
| 8/7/2025 | 3.7% | 6.8% | 9.5% |
| 5/8/2025 | -7.9% | -9.4% | -11.8% |
| 2/6/2025 | -1.1% | 8.0% | 7.7% |
| 11/21/2024 | -7.4% | -4.7% | -7.5% |
| 8/7/2024 | 1.9% | -0.7% | 0.8% |
| 2/7/2024 | -2.5% | 0.8% | -5.8% |
| 11/16/2023 | -4.9% | 2.2% | 2.8% |
| 8/8/2023 | 7.0% | 9.4% | 10.7% |
| 5/9/2023 | -9.6% | -7.5% | -12.3% |
| 2/9/2023 | -4.3% | -5.2% | -18.5% |
| 11/22/2022 | 15.2% | 21.9% | 31.0% |
| 8/9/2022 | -7.9% | -5.5% | -14.3% |
| 5/10/2022 | -5.5% | 5.6% | 5.8% |
| 2/8/2022 | -6.9% | -7.4% | -17.2% |
| 11/15/2021 | -6.2% | -10.4% | -15.6% |
| 8/3/2021 | 0.9% | -5.4% | 3.1% |
| 5/4/2021 | -5.7% | -4.0% | -9.8% |
| 2/1/2021 | 7.0% | 8.4% | 1.4% |
| 11/23/2020 | -3.3% | 2.7% | 29.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 11 | 11 |
| # Negative | 14 | 12 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 3.7% | 5.7% | 7.7% |
| Median Negative | -5.6% | -5.5% | -10.8% |
| Max Positive | 15.2% | 21.9% | 31.0% |
| Max Negative | -9.6% | -10.4% | -18.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/09/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/21/2023 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/22/2022 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/09/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/21/2023 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/22/2022 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/23/2021 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/01/2021 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/23/2020 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/04/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/07/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 01/31/2020 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/27/2019 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 10/8/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 8/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Margin Expansion | Reported | 1.5% | 2.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.0% for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Operating Cash Flow Conversion | Reported | 0.5 | 0.55 | 0.6 | ||||
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 5/7/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Full-Year Margin Expansion | Reported | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 0.2% | Raised | Guidance: 1.75% for 2026 | |
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 2/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Operating Margin Improvement | Reported | 1.5% | 1.75% | 2.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.75% for 2026 | |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Oct 13, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager |
|---|
Industry Resources
| Communication Services Resources |
| Variety |
| The Hollywood Reporter |
| Adweek |
| Movies & Entertainment Resources |
| Deadline |
| IndieWire |
| Screen Daily |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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