Warner Music (WMG)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $27.82 | Market Cap: $51.0 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Movies & Entertainment
Warner Music (WMG)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $27.82Market Cap: $51.0 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Movies & Entertainment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -61%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -81% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 7.7x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 84x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 67x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 168x |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 205% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Content & Streaming, Social Media & Creator Economy, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Music Streaming, Show more. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.9% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Content & Streaming, Social Media & Creator Economy, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Music Streaming, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -61%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -81% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 7.7x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 84x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 67x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 168x |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 205% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.9% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
WMG Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
For the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, Warner Music Group (WMG) experienced a stock decline of -15.9% due to several key factors:
1. Significant Q3 2025 Earnings Per Share (EPS) Miss: On August 7, 2025, Warner Music Group reported its fiscal third-quarter results for the period ended June 30, 2025. Despite surpassing revenue estimates, the company posted a net loss per share of -$0.03, significantly missing the consensus estimate of $0.27. This unexpected loss, coupled with a sharp decline in free cash flow, from $160 million in the prior-year quarter to $7 million, likely contributed to negative investor sentiment carrying into the specified period.
2. Q4 2025 Earnings Per Share (EPS) Fall Short of Estimates: On November 20, 2025, WMG announced its fiscal fourth-quarter results, again reporting a mixed performance. While revenue of $1.87 billion beat analyst expectations, the GAAP EPS of $0.21 fell substantially short of the anticipated $0.34. This significant earnings miss, despite strong top-line growth, raised concerns about profitability and operational efficiency.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| WMG Return | - | 15% | -17% | 4% | -11% | -8% | -19% |
| Peers Return | 6% | 4% | -22% | -1% | -8% | -13% | -32% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| WMG Win Rate | 50% | 58% | 50% | 58% | 42% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 42% | 42% | 29% | 33% | 33% | 65% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| WMG Max Drawdown | - | -16% | -47% | -30% | -22% | -15% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -25% | -5% | -27% | -17% | -29% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SIRI, LBRDA, LBTYA, ANGX, DCR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | WMG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -54.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 121.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -20.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 38 days | 148 days |
Compare to SIRI, LBRDA, LBTYA, ANGX, DCR
In The Past
Warner Music's stock fell -54.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/28/2021. A -54.9% loss requires a 121.6% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Warner Music vs Netflix: Which Stock Could Rally? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Better Bet Than Warner Music Stock: NFLX, DIS Deliver More | Actionable | ||
| Would You Still Hold Warner Music Stock If It Fell Another 30%? | Return | ||
| Warner Music vs Alphabet: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| How Does Warner Music Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | Peer Comparison | ||
| Better Bet Than WMG Stock: Pay Less Than Warner Music To Get More From DIS, IRDM | |||
| Better Bet Than WMG Stock: Pay Less Than Warner Music To Get More From DIS | |||
| Why Warner Music Stock Moved: WMG Stock Has Lost 30% Since 2021 Fiscal End, Primarily Due To Unfavorable Change In Revenues | |||
| WMG Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Warner Music (WMG) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Pay Less, Gain More: DIS, NFLX Top Warner Music Stock | November 25th, 2025 | ||
| Warner Music vs Netflix: Which Stock Could Rally? | November 25th, 2025 | ||
| How Will Warner Music Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings? | November 19th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to WMG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.9% | 4.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -25.1% | -25.1% | -25.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.9% | 4.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -25.1% | -25.1% | -25.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Warner Music
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 21.33 |
| Mkt Cap | 6.9 |
| Rev LTM | 2,963 |
| Op Inc LTM | 197 |
| FCF LTM | 361 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 622 |
| CFO LTM | 751 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,294 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 14.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 6.9 |
| P/S | 3.6 |
| P/EBIT | 5.1 |
| P/E | 9.7 |
| P/CFO | 35.3 |
| Total Yield | 5.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.7% |
| D/E | 0.7 |
| Net D/E | 0.7 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -9.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -11.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 3.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -18.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | -31.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -9.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -16.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -11.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -32.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -101.0% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2062025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11212024 | 10-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2082024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11212023 | 10-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2092023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11222022 | 10-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2082022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11232021 | 10-K 9/30/2021 |
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