Tearsheet

Warner Music (WMG)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $28.78 | Market Cap: $15.0 Bil
Sector: Communication Services | Industry: Movies & Entertainment

Warner Music (WMG)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $28.78
Market Cap: $15.0 Bil
Sector: Communication Services
Industry: Movies & Entertainment

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -55%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -77%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 49x
1 Attractive yield
Dividend Yield is 2.2%
  Key risks
WMG key risks include [1] an over-dependence on a limited number of digital music services for revenue, Show more.
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 27%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Content & Streaming, Social Media & Creator Economy, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Music Streaming, Show more.
  
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%
1 Attractive yield
Dividend Yield is 2.2%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 27%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Content & Streaming, Social Media & Creator Economy, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Music Streaming, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -55%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -77%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 49x
6 Key risks
WMG key risks include [1] an over-dependence on a limited number of digital music services for revenue, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

WMG Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining why Warner Music (WMG) stock moved by -13.8% from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:

1. Significant Earnings Per Share (EPS) Miss in Q4 2025: Warner Music Group reported an EPS of $0.21 for its fiscal fourth quarter ended September 30, 2025, which fell significantly short of the forecasted $0.37 by 43.24%. This miss had a notable negative impact on investor sentiment, despite the company's revenue surpassing expectations.

2. Decline in Cash Provided by Operating Activities: The company experienced a 24% decrease in cash provided by operating activities in Q4 2025, falling to $231 million from $304 million in the prior-year quarter. For the full fiscal year 2025, cash from operating activities also saw a 10% decrease.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
WMG Return15%-17%4%-11%-7%
Peers Return57%19%-54%86%88%18%253%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
WMG Win Rate50%58%50%58%42%50% 
Peers Win Rate46%46%21%62%75%54% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
WMG Max Drawdown-16%-47%-30%-22%-15% 
Peers Max Drawdown-40%-22%-57%-3%-3%-5% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SPOT, LYV.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventWMGS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-54.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven121.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-20.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven25.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven38 days148 days

Compare to SIRI, LBRDA, LBTYA, ANGX, DCR


In The Past

Warner Music's stock fell -54.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/28/2021. A -54.9% loss requires a 121.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About Warner Music (WMG)

Better Bets than Warner Music (WMG)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to WMG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PINS_11302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11302025PINSPinterestMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.9%-0.9%-1.4%
TMUS_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025TMUST-Mobile USMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-4.3%-4.3%-6.4%
Z_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ZZillowMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-3.4%-3.4%-3.9%
IRDM_11072025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11072025IRDMIridium CommunicationsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-0.3%-0.3%-5.6%
TTD_10032025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10032025TTDTrade DeskDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-27.9%-27.9%-29.8%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PINS_11302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11302025PINSPinterestMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.9%-0.9%-1.4%
TMUS_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025TMUST-Mobile USMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-4.3%-4.3%-6.4%
Z_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ZZillowMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-3.4%-3.4%-3.9%
IRDM_11072025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11072025IRDMIridium CommunicationsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-0.3%-0.3%-5.6%
TTD_10032025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10032025TTDTrade DeskDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-27.9%-27.9%-29.8%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Warner Music

Peers to compare with:

Financials

WMGSPOTLYVMedian
NameWarner M.Spotify .Live Nat. 
Mkt Price28.55566.23136.41136.41
Mkt Cap17.8116.631.731.7
Rev LTM6,70716,89724,56916,897
Op Inc LTM9281,9741,1311,131
FCF LTM3442,9151,5801,580
FCF 3Y Avg4141,6401,1411,141
CFO LTM6782,9602,4942,494
CFO 3Y Avg7061,6631,8151,663

Growth & Margins

WMGSPOTLYVMedian
NameWarner M.Spotify .Live Nat. 
Rev Chg LTM4.4%11.9%5.5%5.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg4.3%14.6%18.6%14.6%
Rev Chg Q14.6%7.1%11.1%11.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.7%1.7%3.6%3.6%
Op Mgn LTM13.8%11.7%4.6%11.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg14.0%4.1%4.6%4.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.2%0.6%0.4%0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM10.1%17.5%10.2%10.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg11.1%10.4%7.8%10.4%
FCF/Rev LTM5.1%17.3%6.4%6.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg6.5%10.3%4.9%6.5%

Valuation

WMGSPOTLYVMedian
NameWarner M.Spotify .Live Nat. 
Mkt Cap17.8116.631.731.7
P/S2.78.51.52.7
P/EBIT-82.931.056.9
P/E48.7102.342.248.7
P/CFO26.248.615.226.2
Total Yield4.2%1.0%2.4%2.4%
Dividend Yield2.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-1.7%4.3%3.0%
D/E-0.00.20.1
Net D/E--0.00.10.0

Returns

WMGSPOTLYVMedian
NameWarner M.Spotify .Live Nat. 
1M Rtn-6.2%-11.6%3.0%-6.2%
3M Rtn-13.5%-19.9%-19.5%-19.5%
6M Rtn9.7%-20.3%-8.0%-8.0%
12M Rtn-8.4%19.4%-1.1%-1.1%
3Y Rtn-9.2%657.6%96.6%96.6%
1M Excs Rtn-6.9%-12.3%2.3%-6.9%
3M Excs Rtn-16.4%-24.2%-18.5%-18.5%
6M Excs Rtn-2.7%-32.7%-20.4%-20.4%
12M Excs Rtn-21.1%6.1%-10.7%-10.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-76.8%541.8%16.9%16.9%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Recorded Music5,2234,9554,9664,5443,810
Music Publishing1,2101,088958761657
Corporate expenses and eliminations-7-6-5-4-4
Total6,4266,0375,9195,3014,463


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Recorded Music9161,093796733175
Music Publishing2382961398981
Corporate expenses and eliminations-331-154-221-213-485
Amortization expense -245   
COVID-19 related costs 0   
Depreciation expense -87   
Executive transition costs -7   
Net gain on divestitures 41   
Non-cash stock-based compensation and other related costs -52   
Restructuring and impairments -42   
Transformation initiatives and other related costs -53   
Total823790714609-229


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Recorded Music4,945 3,5153,2782,483
Music Publishing3,017 2,9542,8432,656
Corporate expenses and eliminations1,193 1,3591,0901,271
Total9,155 7,8287,2116,410


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity6,507,227
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202512.7%
Average Daily Volume2,603,424
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.50
Basic Shares Quantity522,023,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.2%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/20/2025-2.7%-8.2% 
8/7/20253.7%6.8%9.5%
5/8/2025-7.9%-9.4%-11.8%
2/6/2025-1.1%8.0%7.7%
11/21/2024-7.4%-4.7%-7.5%
8/7/20241.9%-0.7%0.8%
2/7/2024-2.5%0.8%-5.8%
11/16/2023-4.9%2.2%2.8%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive6912
# Negative171411
Median Positive5.3%6.8%5.8%
Median Negative-5.5%-5.5%-12.3%
Max Positive15.2%21.9%31.0%
Max Negative-9.6%-10.4%-18.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251120202510-K 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024206202510-Q 12/31/2024
93020241121202410-K 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023208202410-Q 12/31/2023
93020231121202310-K 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022209202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221122202210-K 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021208202210-Q 12/31/2021