Tearsheet

Warner Music (WMG)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $27.82 | Market Cap: $51.0 Bil
Sector: Communication Services | Industry: Movies & Entertainment

Warner Music (WMG)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $27.82
Market Cap: $51.0 Bil
Sector: Communication Services
Industry: Movies & Entertainment

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -61%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -81%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 7.7x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 84x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 67x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 168x
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 27%
  Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 205%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Content & Streaming, Social Media & Creator Economy, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Music Streaming, Show more.
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.9%
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 27%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Content & Streaming, Social Media & Creator Economy, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Music Streaming, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -61%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -81%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 7.7x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 84x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 67x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 168x
5 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 205%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.9%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

WMG Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

For the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, Warner Music Group (WMG) experienced a stock decline of -15.9% due to several key factors:

1. Significant Q3 2025 Earnings Per Share (EPS) Miss: On August 7, 2025, Warner Music Group reported its fiscal third-quarter results for the period ended June 30, 2025. Despite surpassing revenue estimates, the company posted a net loss per share of -$0.03, significantly missing the consensus estimate of $0.27. This unexpected loss, coupled with a sharp decline in free cash flow, from $160 million in the prior-year quarter to $7 million, likely contributed to negative investor sentiment carrying into the specified period.

2. Q4 2025 Earnings Per Share (EPS) Fall Short of Estimates: On November 20, 2025, WMG announced its fiscal fourth-quarter results, again reporting a mixed performance. While revenue of $1.87 billion beat analyst expectations, the GAAP EPS of $0.21 fell substantially short of the anticipated $0.34. This significant earnings miss, despite strong top-line growth, raised concerns about profitability and operational efficiency.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
WMG Return-15%-17%4%-11%-8%-19%
Peers Return6%4%-22%-1%-8%-13%-32%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
WMG Win Rate50%58%50%58%42%60% 
Peers Win Rate42%42%29%33%33%65% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
WMG Max Drawdown--16%-47%-30%-22%-15% 
Peers Max Drawdown-25%-5%-27%-17%-29%-21% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SIRI, LBRDA, LBTYA, ANGX, DCR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventWMGS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-54.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven121.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-20.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven25.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven38 days148 days

Compare to SIRI, LBRDA, LBTYA, ANGX, DCR


In The Past

Warner Music's stock fell -54.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/28/2021. A -54.9% loss requires a 121.6% gain to breakeven.

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Asset Allocation

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About Warner Music (WMG)

Better Bets than Warner Music (WMG)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to WMG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PINS_11302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11302025PINSPinterestMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.9%4.9%0.0%
TMUS_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025TMUST-Mobile USMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.0%0.0%-1.2%
Z_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ZZillowMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
6.8%6.8%0.0%
IRDM_11072025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11072025IRDMIridium CommunicationsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
2.1%2.1%-5.6%
TTD_10032025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10032025TTDTrade DeskDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-25.1%-25.1%-25.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PINS_11302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11302025PINSPinterestMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.9%4.9%0.0%
TMUS_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025TMUST-Mobile USMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.0%0.0%-1.2%
Z_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ZZillowMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
6.8%6.8%0.0%
IRDM_11072025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11072025IRDMIridium CommunicationsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
2.1%2.1%-5.6%
TTD_10032025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10032025TTDTrade DeskDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-25.1%-25.1%-25.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Warner Music

Peers to compare with:

Financials

WMGSIRILBRDALBTYAANGXDCRMedian
NameWarner M.Sirius XMLiberty .Liberty .Angel St.DCR Tech  
Mkt Price27.8621.3346.1311.284.48-21.33
Mkt Cap51.17.26.63.9--6.9
Rev LTM6,4698,5531,5432,963186-2,963
Op Inc LTM8841,9261974-101-197
FCF LTM3911,223-55361-60-361
FCF 3Y Avg4791,145-203765--622
CFO LTM7511,8971281,520-56-751
CFO 3Y Avg7651,82391,967--1,294

Growth & Margins

WMGSIRILBRDALBTYAANGXDCRMedian
NameWarner M.Sirius XMLiberty .Liberty .Angel St.DCR Tech  
Rev Chg LTM1.4%-2.8%108.2%16.3%-10.6%-1.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg3.7%-1.7%28.2%-22.1%--1.0%
Rev Chg Q8.7%-0.6%-20.0%431.0%-14.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.1%-0.1%0.0%7.7%61.8%-2.1%
Op Mgn LTM13.7%22.5%12.8%0.1%-54.0%-12.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg13.7%21.9%8.8%-3.5%--11.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.2%0.2%0.2%2.3%34.9%-0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM11.6%22.2%8.3%51.3%-29.9%-11.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg12.2%20.8%-1.3%62.3%--16.5%
FCF/Rev LTM6.0%14.3%-3.6%12.2%-32.3%-6.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg7.7%13.1%-23.5%24.0%--10.4%

Valuation

WMGSIRILBRDALBTYAANGXDCRMedian
NameWarner M.Sirius XMLiberty .Liberty .Angel St.DCR Tech  
Mkt Cap51.17.26.63.9--6.9
P/S7.70.95.91.3--3.6
P/EBIT84.14.45.9-1.4--5.1
P/E168.27.911.5-1.2--9.7
P/CFO66.54.170.82.6--35.3
Total Yield1.3%17.3%8.7%-84.0%--5.0%
Dividend Yield0.8%4.7%0.0%0.0%--0.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg1.9%11.8%-1.8%11.4%--6.7%
D/E0.11.30.22.7--0.7
Net D/E0.11.30.21.9--0.7

Returns

WMGSIRILBRDALBTYAANGXDCRMedian
NameWarner M.Sirius XMLiberty .Liberty .Angel St.DCR Tech  
1M Rtn-9.0%-2.6%-9.7%3.6%-32.0%--9.0%
3M Rtn-15.4%-8.2%-22.7%-4.6%---11.8%
6M Rtn7.1%0.4%-49.8%17.6%--3.7%
12M Rtn-11.7%-18.2%-45.9%-18.3%---18.2%
3Y Rtn-13.2%-64.3%-48.9%8.9%---31.0%
1M Excs Rtn-9.0%-2.5%-9.6%3.6%-32.0%--9.0%
3M Excs Rtn-19.9%-13.8%-27.5%-10.6%---16.8%
6M Excs Rtn-7.6%-14.3%-64.5%2.9%---11.0%
12M Excs Rtn-25.8%-30.5%-59.1%-33.7%---32.1%
3Y Excs Rtn-81.4%-137.9%-120.6%-63.3%---101.0%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity5,772,496
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-2.8%
Average Daily Volume1,410,901
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.09
Basic Shares Quantity1,834,161,000
Short % of Basic Shares0.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024206202510-Q 12/31/2024
93020241121202410-K 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023208202410-Q 12/31/2023
93020231121202310-K 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022209202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221122202210-K 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021208202210-Q 12/31/2021
93020211123202110-K 9/30/2021