WEC Energy (WEC)
Market Price (11/5/2026): $118.14 | Market Cap: $38.9 BilSector: Utilities | Industry: Electric Utilities
WEC Energy (WEC)
Market Price (11/5/2026): $118.14Market Cap: $38.9 BilSector: UtilitiesIndustry: Electric Utilities
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.9%, Dividend Yield is 3.2% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, CFO LTM is 3.8 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 17% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Wind Energy Development, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -21% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 60% Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.0% Key risksWEC key risks include [1] the dependency on regulatory approvals to recover costs from its projected $28 billion capital investment plan and [2] margin pressure from rising interest rates while financing these expenditures. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.9%, Dividend Yield is 3.2% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, CFO LTM is 3.8 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 17% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Wind Energy Development, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -21% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 60% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.0% |
| Key risksWEC key risks include [1] the dependency on regulatory approvals to recover costs from its projected $28 billion capital investment plan and [2] margin pressure from rising interest rates while financing these expenditures. |
Qualitative Assessment
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WEC Energy (WEC) stock has gained about 10% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. WEC Energy Group reported robust financial results for fiscal Q3 2026, significantly surpassing analyst expectations and subsequently raising its full-year earnings per share (EPS) guidance. The company announced Q3 2026 diluted earnings of $1.18 per share, which notably beat the consensus estimate of $0.97. Additionally, revenue for the quarter reached $2.29 billion, exceeding estimates by approximately $20.15 million and representing an 8.9% year-over-year increase. Following this strong performance, WEC Energy Group raised and narrowed its full-year 2026 EPS guidance to a range of $5.60 to $5.64, up from the prior range of $5.51 to $5.61.
2. The company unveiled a significantly expanded capital plan for 2027-2031, largely driven by increasing demand from very large customers, particularly data centers. WEC Energy Group increased its 2027-2031 capital investment plan by $10 billion, bringing the total to $47.5 billion. This substantial increase is primarily attributed to rising electricity demand from data center projects and other large customers, with the company forecasting electric demand growth of 4.9 gigawatts between 2026 and 2031, an increase of 1 gigawatt from its previous plan. This expanded investment program is projected to support asset-base growth at a compound annual rate of 13.4% and drive EPS growth of 7% to 9% or more through 2031.
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WEC Energy (WEC) stock has gained about 10% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. WEC Energy Group reported robust financial results for fiscal Q3 2026, significantly surpassing analyst expectations and subsequently raising its full-year earnings per share (EPS) guidance. The company announced Q3 2026 diluted earnings of $1.18 per share, which notably beat the consensus estimate of $0.97. Additionally, revenue for the quarter reached $2.29 billion, exceeding estimates by approximately $20.15 million and representing an 8.9% year-over-year increase. Following this strong performance, WEC Energy Group raised and narrowed its full-year 2026 EPS guidance to a range of $5.60 to $5.64, up from the prior range of $5.51 to $5.61.
2. The company unveiled a significantly expanded capital plan for 2027-2031, largely driven by increasing demand from very large customers, particularly data centers. WEC Energy Group increased its 2027-2031 capital investment plan by $10 billion, bringing the total to $47.5 billion. This substantial increase is primarily attributed to rising electricity demand from data center projects and other large customers, with the company forecasting electric demand growth of 4.9 gigawatts between 2026 and 2031, an increase of 1 gigawatt from its previous plan. This expanded investment program is projected to support asset-base growth at a compound annual rate of 13.4% and drive EPS growth of 7% to 9% or more through 2031.
3. Favorable weather conditions during fiscal Q3 2026 contributed to higher electricity deliveries and boosted financial performance. Warmer-than-normal weather was a key factor cited by the company for its strong Q3 2026 results. Retail deliveries of electricity, excluding specific large industrial customers, increased by 3.3% in Q3 2026 compared to the same period last year, with residential electricity use rising by 5.1%.
4. Sustained dividend growth and an attractive payout policy enhance investor confidence and appeal. WEC Energy Group maintained its commitment to returning value to shareholders, having declared a quarterly cash dividend of 95.25 cents per share (originally announced in January 2026). This action marks the 23rd consecutive year of dividend increases for the company, demonstrating a consistent track record. The company targets a dividend payout ratio of 65% to 70% of earnings, which is considered attractive for utility investors seeking stable income.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 8.9% change in WEC stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 7.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 108.47 | 118.11 | 8.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 10,085 | 10,324 | 2.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.3% | 17.5% | 7.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 21.6 | 21.3 | -1.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 326 | 327 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 8.9% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WEC | 8.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.6% | -6.4% |
| Sector (XLU) | -1.7% | 78.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 1.9% change in WEC stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 10.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 115.93 | 118.11 | 1.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 9,800 | 10,324 | 5.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.9% | 17.5% | 10.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.2 | 21.3 | -12.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 326 | 327 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 1.9% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WEC | 1.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.0% | -16.5% |
| Sector (XLU) | -6.3% | 83.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 9.3% change in WEC stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 8.1% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 108.04 | 118.11 | 9.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 9,547 | 10,324 | 8.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 17.8% | 17.5% | -1.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.6 | 21.3 | 3.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 324 | 327 | -0.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 9.3% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WEC | 9.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.4% | -11.0% |
| Sector (XLU) | -0.1% | 81.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 61.6% change in WEC stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 25.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 73.11 | 118.11 | 61.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 9,280 | 10,324 | 11.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.6% | 17.5% | 20.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.0 | 21.3 | 25.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 315 | 327 | -3.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 61.6% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WEC | 61.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 89.7% | 4.5% |
| Sector (XLU) | 58.6% | 77.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| WEC Return | 9% | 0% | -7% | 16% | 16% | 15% | 57% |
| Peers Return | 15% | 1% | -7% | 18% | 12% | 11% | 59% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 102% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| WEC Win Rate | 50% | 58% | 67% | 50% | 58% | 55% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 57% | 55% | 57% | 48% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 36% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| WEC Max Drawdown | -12% | -24% | -21% | -11% | -11% | -14% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -12% | -25% | -20% | -12% | -10% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: XEL, AEE, DTE, CMS, LNT. See WEC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/4/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | WEC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -15.6% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 304 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -12.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 29 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -30.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 207 days | 140 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -10.2% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.4% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 106 days | 6 days |
| 2013 Taper Tantrum | ||
| % Loss | -10.9% | -0.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.3% | 0.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 237 days | 1 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -12.0% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.6% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 16 days | 123 days |
In The Past
WEC Energy's stock fell -0.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 0.6% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | WEC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -30.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 207 days | 140 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -23.2% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.2% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 276 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
WEC Energy's stock fell -0.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 0.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About WEC Energy (WEC)
WEC Energy Group (WEC) is a diversified utility holding company primarily focused on providing regulated natural gas and electricity services. Operating across several U.S. states, notably Wisconsin and Illinois, the company generates electricity from a broad range of sources, including traditional fossil fuels like coal, natural gas, and oil, alongside renewable options such as hydroelectric, wind, solar, and biomass. Beyond its core regulated utility business, WEC Energy Group also develops and manages nonregulated renewable energy projects, contributing to a greener energy future.
The company's main products and services encompass the entire energy delivery chain. This includes the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity, ensuring power reaches homes and businesses. Additionally, WEC provides retail natural gas distribution services and manages the transportation of natural gas, supported by extensive pipeline infrastructure and underground storage facilities. WEC Energy Group also generates, distributes, and sells steam, further diversifying its utility offerings.
WEC Energy Group primarily serves a vast customer base consisting of residential, commercial, and industrial clients within its regulated service territories. Millions of households and businesses depend on the company for their daily electricity and natural gas requirements across Wisconsin, Illinois, and other operational states. Its non-utility energy infrastructure segment also caters to specific market demands for large-scale renewable energy solutions.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for WEC Energy (WEC):
- Like Duke Energy (DUK) or NextEra Energy (NEE), but primarily focused on providing electricity and natural gas services across the Midwest.
- The energy infrastructure equivalent of a regional AT&T (T) or Verizon (VZ), delivering essential electricity and natural gas to homes and businesses.
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- Electricity Generation and Distribution: WEC generates electricity from various sources and distributes it to customers.
- Natural Gas Distribution and Transmission: WEC provides retail natural gas distribution services and operates natural gas transmission infrastructure.
- Electric Transmission Services: WEC offers services for the high-voltage transmission of electricity across its grid.
- Renewable Energy Services: WEC provides services related to the generation and delivery of renewable energy.
- Steam Services: WEC generates, distributes, and sells steam to its customers.
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WEC Energy Group (WEC) is a regulated utility company. Its major customers are not other specific public companies but rather a broad base of individuals and businesses within its service territories. The company sells primarily to:
- Residential customers: Individual households and apartments consuming electricity and natural gas for their daily needs.
- Commercial customers: A wide range of businesses, including retail stores, offices, educational institutions, hospitals, and government facilities.
- Industrial customers: Large manufacturing plants, factories, and other industrial operations that require significant amounts of electricity and natural gas for their processes.
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Gale Klappa, Executive Chairman
Gale Klappa has over 45 years of experience in the public utility industry, with more than 30 years at the senior executive level. He joined Wisconsin Energy (WEC Energy Group's predecessor) as president in April 2003 and was elected to the board in December 2003. From May 2004, he served as chairman and chief executive officer of Wisconsin Energy and We Energies. Under his leadership, the company completed its 2015 acquisition of Integrys Energy Group, at which point he assumed the same roles for WEC Energy Group. Klappa served as non-executive chairman after retiring as CEO in May 2016, then resumed the role of chairman and chief executive officer in October 2017 to provide leadership and continuity, returning to the non-executive chairman role in May 2024. Before joining WEC Energy Group, Klappa held executive leadership roles at Southern Company, including executive vice president, chief financial officer and treasurer, chief strategic officer, North American group president of Southern Energy Inc., and president and CEO of South Western Electricity (Southern Company's electric distribution utility in the United Kingdom). He graduated cum laude from the University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee with a bachelor's degree in mass communications.
Scott Lauber, President and Chief Executive Officer
Scott Lauber was named president and chief executive officer of WEC Energy Group and appointed to the board of directors in February 2022. He previously served as senior executive vice president and became chief operating officer in June 2020. In his role as executive vice president and COO, Lauber had senior oversight responsibility for Information Technology, Major Projects, Power Generation, Supply Chain, Supplier Diversity, and WEC Infrastructure and Fuels. Lauber joined Wisconsin Energy Corp. in 1990 and has held positions of increasing responsibility, including financial manager of distribution operations, manager of corporate accounting and budgeting, controller, assistant treasurer, and vice president and treasurer. In April 2016, he was named executive vice president and chief financial officer for WEC Energy Group. Before joining Wisconsin Energy Corp., he was a staff accountant in Arthur Andersen's Milwaukee office. Lauber graduated with honors from the University of Wisconsin-Whitewater with a Bachelor of Business Administration degree in accounting and is a certified public accountant.
Xia Liu, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Xia Liu began her role as executive vice president and chief financial officer in June 2020. In this capacity, she is responsible for the company's strategic and long-range financial planning, corporate forecasting and budgeting, treasury, accounting, tax, insurance, risk management, and investor relations functions. Liu joined WEC Energy Group from CenterPoint Energy, where she served as executive vice president and chief financial officer since 2019. Prior to that, she spent 21 years with Southern Company and its subsidiaries across three states, holding a dozen roles including executive vice president, chief financial officer and treasurer of Georgia Power (Southern Company's largest subsidiary), and chief financial officer and treasurer for Gulf Power Co.
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Key Risks to WEC Energy (WEC)
WEC Energy Group (WEC) faces several significant risks inherent to the utility industry and its specific operational and strategic landscape. The most prominent risks include regulatory challenges, the escalating costs and complexities associated with environmental compliance and the transition to cleaner energy, and inherent operational risks to its extensive infrastructure.1. Regulatory Risks
As a heavily regulated utility company, WEC Energy Group's financial performance is significantly influenced by governmental regulations and rate-setting decisions by state and federal commissions. Changes in legislation and regulation can directly impact its operating environment and its ability to recover prudently incurred costs from customers. A notable example of this risk is the Illinois Commerce Commission's (ICC) 2023 final rate order, which disallowed certain capital costs, leading to impairment losses and a pause in some infrastructure spending. Such regulatory actions introduce uncertainty and can materially affect the company's financial results and long-term stability.2. Environmental Compliance Costs and Energy Transition
WEC Energy Group is exposed to increasing environmental compliance costs driven by evolving federal, state, and local regulations, particularly those related to greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. The company has ambitious environmental goals, including achieving net carbon-neutral electric generation by 2050 and eliminating coal as an energy source by 2032 or 2035, requiring substantial capital investments in renewable energy projects like solar, wind, and battery storage, as well as natural gas-fired generation. The transition to renewable energy and electrification initiatives could also impact demand for natural gas, necessitating significant capital reallocation and potentially leading to higher operating costs and financial liabilities, including from litigation over environmental issues.3. Operational Risks and Infrastructure Reliability
The reliability and safety of WEC Energy Group's extensive electric generation, transmission, distribution facilities, and natural gas infrastructure are critical to its operations. The company faces operational risks from severe weather events, equipment failures, cyberattacks, and supply chain disruptions. Catastrophic weather-related damage, for instance, has previously resulted in impairment losses. Additionally, inflation could lead to increased costs and delays for ongoing projects and infrastructure upgrades. The continuous need to maintain and modernize its vast network to ensure reliable service presents ongoing challenges and capital requirements.AI Analysis | Feedback
The proliferation of distributed energy resources (DERs), such as rooftop solar panels combined with battery storage systems, enabling customers to generate and store their own electricity. This trend can significantly reduce customer reliance on grid-supplied electricity, potentially leading to partial or complete grid defection and thereby eroding the utility's traditional revenue streams based on volumetric electricity sales and fixed grid connection charges.
Increasing adoption of electric heat pumps and other electric heating solutions, driven by decarbonization efforts and technological advancements, which could lead to a decline in demand for natural gas and impact WEC Energy's natural gas distribution segment.
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WEC Energy Group (symbol: WEC) operates in regulated natural gas and electricity distribution, renewable energy, and steam services across several U.S. states. The addressable markets for its main products and services are primarily regional for its utility operations and national for its renewable energy ventures.
Regulated Electricity Distribution
- Wisconsin: The total retail electricity sales in Wisconsin amounted to 68,291,424 megawatt-hours (MWh) in 2024, with an average retail price of 12.72 cents per kilowatt-hour (kWh). This indicates an addressable market size of approximately $8.68 billion for electricity distribution in Wisconsin for 2024. WEC Energy Group, through its subsidiaries We Energies and Wisconsin Public Service, serves over 2.3 million and 824,000 electricity and natural gas customers, respectively, in Wisconsin.
Regulated Natural Gas Distribution
- Illinois: Customers in Illinois consume 1,063.0 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of natural gas annually. With 4.3 million natural gas customers (including 3,989,782 households and 299,540 businesses) and an estimated average monthly gas bill of around $83, the annual addressable market for natural gas distribution in Illinois is approximately $4.28 billion. WEC Energy Group's subsidiaries, Peoples Gas and North Shore Gas, deliver natural gas to approximately 898,000 customers in Chicago and 166,000 customers in Chicago's northern suburbs, respectively.
Renewable Energy Services
- U.S. National Market: The U.S. renewable energy market was valued at approximately $78.36 billion in 2025 and is anticipated to grow to approximately $85.37 billion in 2026. This market is projected to reach $169.49 billion by 2034, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 8.95% from 2026 to 2034. WEC Energy Group is involved in renewable energy through generation from sources like wind, solar, and biomass, and plans significant investments in battery energy storage systems (BESSs). [cite: BACKGROUND, 27]
Steam (District Heating) Services
- U.S. National Market: The U.S. district heating market size was valued at $5.59 billion in 2024. It is projected to increase to $5.76 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach $7.47 billion by 2032.
Markets Unable to Be Sized in Dollars
The addressable markets for regulated natural gas distribution in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota, as well as electric transmission services, could not be definitively sized in dollar values based on the available information. For these segments, WEC Energy Group operates within regulated frameworks where market size is typically defined by consumption within specific service territories rather than a competitive dollar-denominated market.
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WEC Energy Group (symbol: WEC) is poised for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several strategic initiatives and increasing energy demand within its service territories.
The primary drivers include:
- Substantial Capital Investment in Regulated Assets: WEC Energy Group plans a historic five-year capital investment of $37.5 billion for 2026-2030, with the vast majority directed towards its regulated business segments. This extensive capital plan is expected to expand the company's rate base, thereby driving revenue growth through regulated returns on these investments.
- Expansion of Renewable Energy and Modernized Natural Gas Generation: A significant portion of the capital plan, estimated at $12.6 billion between 2026 and 2030, is allocated to new renewable energy projects, including solar, wind, and battery storage, to substantially increase carbon-free generation capacity. Additionally, approximately $7.4 billion is earmarked for modern, efficient natural gas generation and liquefied natural gas storage, essential for maintaining reliability during the energy transition. These investments directly contribute to increased generation capacity and sales.
- Growing Electricity Demand from Data Centers and Economic Growth: WEC Energy Group anticipates significant electric sales growth, particularly from an accelerating demand from large data centers, such as those for Microsoft and Vantage Data Centers, within its service territories. This new industrial demand is a key factor, with forecasted electric demand additions of up to 3.9 gigawatts by 2030. Overall, electric sales growth is projected to be between 6% and 8% annually from 2028 through 2030.
- Investments in Electric Transmission and Distribution Infrastructure: The company is investing heavily in upgrading its electric transmission and natural gas distribution systems to enhance reliability, support economic expansion, and integrate new generation sources. This includes a projected $4.1 billion investment in the American Transmission Company (ATC), in which WEC holds a 60% share, to support new load growth. These infrastructure enhancements expand the regulated asset base, contributing to revenue.
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Share Issuance
- WEC Energy plans significant equity issuances to fund its capital expenditure plans, aiming to maintain approximately 50% equity content for its projects.
- The company issued approximately $800 million in common equity in 2025.
- For 2026, WEC projects common equity issuance of $900 million to $1.1 billion.
Capital Expenditures
- WEC Energy Group has a planned five-year capital expenditure plan of approximately $37.5 billion for the 2026-2030 period, an increase of $1 billion from November 2025. The prior five-year capital plan for 2025-2029 was $28 billion.
- The capital plan for 2026-2030 is largely driven by expected electric demand growth from planned data centers and other large loads in its service area, including projects by Microsoft and Vantage Data Centers.
- Between 2026 and 2030, WEC plans to invest approximately $20.3 billion in electric generation, including $12.6 billion in regulated clean energy projects (solar, battery storage, and wind), and $7.4 billion in modern natural gas generation and LNG storage. An additional $4.1 billion is allocated for American Transmission Company (ATC) projects.
Peer Outperformance in Electric Utilities
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WEC | WEC Energy | 4.1% | 21.3x | 9.2% | 56.6% | 57.4% | — |
| VST | Vistra | 6.7% | 18.3x | -34.9% | 252.7% | 582.3% | +525pp |
| ETR | Entergy | 3.7% | 25.5x | 19.2% | 151.3% | 161.6% | +104pp |
| AEP | American Electric Power | 7.1% | 21.0x | 10.8% | 80.6% | 84.4% | +27pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders | 5 | -49.7% | 86.7% | 125.3% | NRG 166% · OKLO 125% · TAC 32% |
| Multi-Utilities | 18 | 8.7% | 59.6% | 53.8% | MDU 117% · NI 112% · PNW 108% |
| Electric Utilities ← | 24 | 6.0% | 52.3% | 52.1% | VST 582% · ETR 162% · AEP 84% |
| Gas Utilities | 10 | 8.2% | 60.0% | 48.0% | ATO 113% · SR 78% · NJR 72% |
| Water Utilities | 11 | 9.3% | 2.2% | -3.1% | WTRG 13% · AWR 7% · HTO 1% |
| Renewable Electricity | 5 | -72.6% | -74.7% | -89.8% | ORA 27% · CWEN 26% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 96.84 |
| Mkt Cap | 30.0 |
| Rev LTM | 9,650 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,282 |
| FCF LTM | -1,698 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -1,249 |
| CFO LTM | 3,305 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,159 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 6.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 9.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 22.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 21.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 30.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 30.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -14.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -11.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 30.0 |
| P/S | 3.5 |
| P/Op Inc | 14.8 |
| P/EBIT | 12.9 |
| P/E | 20.9 |
| P/CFO | 10.0 |
| Total Yield | 7.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -5.0% |
| D/E | 0.8 |
| Net D/E | 0.7 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 13.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 4.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 2.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 7.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 54.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 14.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 7.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -0.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -2.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -21.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin | 7,296 | 6,330 | 6,626 | 6,960 | 6,037 |
| Illinois | 1,684 | 1,602 | 1,558 | 1,891 | 1,673 |
| Non-Utility Energy Infrastructure | 770 | 691 | 666 | 590 | 540 |
| Other states | 528 | 450 | 519 | 618 | 519 |
| Corporate and other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Electric transmission | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reconciling eliminations | -477 | -474 | -476 | -463 | -453 |
| Total | 9,800 | 8,600 | 8,893 | 9,597 | 8,316 |
| $ Mil | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin | 1,190 | 800 | 1,066 | 1,027 | 884 |
| Non-Utility Energy Infrastructure | 367 | 366 | 400 | ||
| Illinois | 292 | 256 | 273 | 240 | 78 |
| Other states | 65 | 69 | 54 | 50 | |
| Corporate and other | -34 | -22 | -8 | -10 | -91 |
| Reconciling eliminations | -348 | ||||
| We Power | 376 | 373 | |||
| OtherStates | 6 | ||||
| Total | 1,531 | 1,468 | 1,785 | 1,682 | 1,250 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin | 1,055 | 863 | 851 | 758 | 706 |
| Non-Utility Energy Infrastructure | 411 | 381 | 336 | 324 | 279 |
| Electric transmission | 148 | 141 | 119 | 130 | 106 |
| Illinois | 122 | 252 | 140 | 227 | 223 |
| Other states | 61 | 54 | 48 | 40 | 36 |
| Reconciling eliminations | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Corporate and other | -239 | -164 | -163 | -71 | -50 |
| Total | 1,557 | 1,527 | 1,332 | 1,408 | 1,300 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin | 33,985 | 30,623 | 28,527 | 27,384 | 25,688 |
| Illinois | 8,168 | 8,169 | 7,970 | 8,101 | 7,853 |
| Non-Utility Energy Infrastructure | 7,763 | 7,316 | 6,405 | 5,321 | 4,628 |
| Electric transmission | 2,283 | 2,126 | 2,006 | 1,909 | 1,793 |
| Other states | 1,733 | 1,646 | 1,572 | 1,640 | 1,506 |
| Corporate and other | 1,228 | 1,037 | 1,100 | 774 | 785 |
| Reconciling eliminations | -3,641 | -3,554 | -3,640 | -3,256 | -3,265 |
| Total | 51,518 | 47,363 | 43,940 | 41,872 | 38,988 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $118.11 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 38.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/26/1984 | |
| Distance from 52W High | 0.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $106.43 | $110.50 |
| DMA Trend | down | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | 11.0% | 6.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 19.7% | 17.1% |
| Downside Capture | -56.22 | -26.60 |
| Upside Capture | -13.12 | -14.12 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | -14.9% | -12.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.93 | -0.22 | -0.22 | -0.30 | -0.17 | 0.05 |
| Up Beta | -0.37 | 0.53 | 0.22 | -0.24 | -0.12 | 0.07 |
| Down Beta | -0.71 | -1.27 | -1.15 | -0.28 | -0.16 | 0.02 |
| Up Capture | 18% | 31% | 7% | -23% | -8% | 3% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 14 | 21 | 28 | 56 | 120 | 387 |
| Down Capture | -211% | -44% | -36% | -45% | -38% | -10% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 21 | 35 | 69 | 130 | 363 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with WEC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WEC | 10.5% | 17.1% | 0.41 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | -0.1% | 15.7% | -0.21 | 81.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.2% | 12.9% | 0.68 | -11.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 1.0% | 28.8% | 0.03 | -0.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 35.9% | 21.2% | 1.34 | -9.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.3% | 14.1% | 0.70 | 56.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -28.2% | 43.4% | -0.65 | -11.8% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with WEC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WEC | 9.4% | 19.1% | 0.37 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 8.5% | 17.4% | 0.33 | 84.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.5% | 17.2% | 0.55 | 22.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.3% | 19.1% | 0.73 | 14.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.0% | 19.6% | 0.29 | 3.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.8% | 18.9% | -0.01 | 56.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.5% | 51.5% | 0.29 | 2.0% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with WEC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WEC | 11.0% | 21.6% | 0.46 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 9.4% | 19.3% | 0.41 | 86.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 35.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.9% | 16.5% | 0.59 | 14.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.4% | 18.1% | 0.33 | 4.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 57.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 61.0% | 66.2% | 1.01 | 2.4% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 11/3/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2026 | 3.7% | ||
| 7/29/2026 | -2.0% | -3.8% | -4.5% |
| 5/5/2026 | -1.0% | -3.2% | -4.7% |
| 2/5/2026 | -1.2% | -0.2% | 3.0% |
| 10/30/2025 | -1.7% | -2.4% | -3.8% |
| 7/30/2025 | -0.2% | 1.3% | -0.1% |
| 5/6/2025 | 1.0% | -3.4% | -1.9% |
| 2/4/2025 | -1.2% | 0.8% | 4.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 10 | 9 |
| # Negative | 15 | 14 | 15 |
| Median Positive | 0.9% | 1.0% | 4.9% |
| Median Negative | -0.4% | -2.1% | -3.6% |
| Max Positive | 3.7% | 3.4% | 10.3% |
| Max Negative | -2.0% | -3.8% | -9.3% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2026 | 3.7% | ||
| 7/29/2026 | -2.0% | -3.8% | -4.5% |
| 5/5/2026 | -1.0% | -3.2% | -4.7% |
| 2/5/2026 | -1.2% | -0.2% | 3.0% |
| 10/30/2025 | -1.7% | -2.4% | -3.8% |
| 7/30/2025 | -0.2% | 1.3% | -0.1% |
| 5/6/2025 | 1.0% | -3.4% | -1.9% |
| 2/4/2025 | -1.2% | 0.8% | 4.9% |
| 10/31/2024 | -0.5% | -0.0% | 6.1% |
| 7/31/2024 | 0.5% | 3.4% | 9.4% |
| 5/1/2024 | -0.1% | 1.4% | -3.1% |
| 2/1/2024 | 1.3% | -3.2% | -1.9% |
| 10/31/2023 | -0.3% | 1.4% | 2.7% |
| 8/1/2023 | -0.3% | -2.6% | -4.1% |
| 5/1/2023 | -0.2% | -0.2% | -9.3% |
| 2/2/2023 | 0.0% | -3.4% | -4.8% |
| 11/1/2022 | 0.7% | -1.3% | 10.3% |
| 8/2/2022 | -0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| 5/2/2022 | -0.3% | 0.6% | 5.8% |
| 2/3/2022 | -0.4% | -1.9% | -0.8% |
| 11/2/2021 | 0.6% | -1.5% | -2.2% |
| 8/3/2021 | 1.0% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| 5/3/2021 | 0.9% | 0.5% | -3.6% |
| 2/4/2021 | -0.5% | -1.5% | -2.4% |
| 11/3/2020 | 1.1% | 0.7% | -6.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 10 | 9 |
| # Negative | 15 | 14 | 15 |
| Median Positive | 0.9% | 1.0% | 4.9% |
| Median Negative | -0.4% | -2.1% | -3.6% |
| Max Positive | 3.7% | 3.4% | 10.3% |
| Max Negative | -2.0% | -3.8% | -9.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/20/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/20/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/24/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/06/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/25/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/07/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/27/2020 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 10/30/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 10/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 EPS | Reported | 5.6 | 5.62 | 5.64 | 1.1% | Raised | Guidance: 5.56 for 2026 | |
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 EPS | Reported | 5.51 | 5.56 | 5.61 | Affirmed | Guidance: 5.56 for 2026 | ||
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 EPS | Reported | 5.51 | 5.56 | 5.61 | Affirmed | Guidance: 5.56 for 2026 | ||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 EPS | Reported | 5.51 | 5.56 | 5.61 | 6.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 5.22 for 2025 | |
| 2026-2030 EPS Growth | Reported | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.0% | ||||
Insider Activity
Updated 11/4/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mulroy, Molly A | EVP & Chief Admin Officer | Direct | Sell | 11042026 | 117.02 | 4,695 | 549,407 | 832,027 | Form |
| 2 | Payne, Ulice JR | Direct | Sell | 8122026 | 105.58 | 980 | 103,468 | 2,068,128 | Form | |
| 3 | Krueger, Daniel | EVP WEC Infrastructure | Direct | Sell | 5202026 | 110.96 | 4,665 | 517,624 | 815,105 | Form |
| 4 | Payne, Ulice JR | Direct | Sell | 2252026 | 114.60 | 1,450 | 166,166 | 2,353,934 | Form | |
| 5 | Klappa, Gale E | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 115.44 | 3,180 | 367,099 | 31,930,704 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mulroy, Molly A | EVP & Chief Admin Officer | Direct | Sell | 11042026 | 117.02 | 4,695 | 549,407 | 832,027 | Form |
| 2 | Payne, Ulice JR | Direct | Sell | 8122026 | 105.58 | 980 | 103,468 | 2,068,128 | Form | |
| 3 | Krueger, Daniel | EVP WEC Infrastructure | Direct | Sell | 5202026 | 110.96 | 4,665 | 517,624 | 815,105 | Form |
| 4 | Payne, Ulice JR | Direct | Sell | 2252026 | 114.60 | 1,450 | 166,166 | 2,353,934 | Form | |
| 5 | Klappa, Gale E | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 115.44 | 3,180 | 367,099 | 31,930,704 | Form | |
| 6 | Klappa, Gale E | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 116.55 | 5,000 | 582,750 | 32,237,730 | Form | |
| 7 | Klappa, Gale E | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 115.44 | 25,000 | 2,886,060 | 31,931,368 | Form | |
| 8 | Straka, Mary Beth | Sr. VP-Corp Comm & Inv Rel | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 115.50 | 2,815 | 325,131 | 543,663 | Form |
| 9 | Lauber, Scott J | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 2112026 | 110.70 | 8,089 | 895,462 | 7,394,897 | Form |
| 10 | Erickson, Joshua M | VP and Deputy General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 112.47 | 100 | 11,247 | 290,843 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 5, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Talaria Asset Management Pty Ltd | $33.7 Mil | 6.8% | 12 | ADD +130.8% | 13F |
| Ovata Capital Management Ltd | $33.1 Mil | 4.6% | 38 | New | 13F |
| HFR Wealth Management, LLC | $11.8 Mil | 2.9% | 49 | Hold | 13F |
| Cincinnati Specialty Underwriters Insurance CO | $11.0 Mil | 2.7% | 46 | Hold | 13F |
| Soroban Capital Partners LP | $138.7 Mil | 1.0% | 27 | TRIM -13.7% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soroban Capital Partners LP | $138.7 Mil | 1.0% | 27 | TRIM -13.7% | 13F |
| Talaria Asset Management Pty Ltd | $33.7 Mil | 6.8% | 12 | ADD +130.8% | 13F |
| Ovata Capital Management Ltd | $33.1 Mil | 4.6% | 38 | New | 13F |
| HFR Wealth Management, LLC | $11.8 Mil | 2.9% | 49 | Hold | 13F |
| Cincinnati Specialty Underwriters Insurance CO | $11.0 Mil | 2.7% | 46 | Hold | 13F |
WEC Trade Sentinel
High Conviction
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is high due to a rare business inflection. WEC has secured a multi-year growth runway via a $47.5 billion capital plan, de-risked by contracts with large data centers. This plan underpins an accelerated 7-9+% earnings growth outlook, supported by a specialized, higher-return regulatory framework and a management team with a flawless recent execution record.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Regulated UtilityRevenue ≈ (Regulated Rate Base × Authorized Return on Equity) + Pass-Through Costs Growth in the regulated rate base, particularly from high-return investments serving Very Large Customers (VLCs).
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests an inflection is underway, driven by massive, contracted demand from data centers powering the AI buildout.
- New 5-year capital plan totals $47.5 billion, a $10 billion increase.
- Long-term EPS growth guidance was raised to a 7%-9+% compound annual rate.
- Forecasted electric demand growth is 4.9 gigawatts through 2031.
- New projects for large customers carry a higher return of 10.48% to 10.98%.
- The plan is funded with no increase in planned equity issuance.
PRIMARY RISK
The growth story relies on executing a massive $47.5 billion plan and on continued demand from a few large data center customers, which will comprise almost 30% of assets by 2031.
- By 2031, assets for large customers will be almost 30% of the total.
- The capital plan is subject to risks of cost overruns and delays.
- The company's free cash flow is negative due to heavy investment.
- Net debt to equity ratio is elevated at 0.61.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Capital Investment Plan & Asset Base Growth | A $47.5 billion capital plan for 2027-2031, expected to drive a 13.4% compound annual growth rate in the asset base. - Accelerating | The company announced a significant acceleration in its investment outlook on its latest earnings call in October. The new $47.5 billion plan represents a step-change in growth, driven by infrastructure needs for new, large-scale data center customers. |
| Electric Demand Growth (VLCs) | Forecasted electric demand growth of 4.9 gigawatts (GW) between 2026 and 2031. - Accelerating | The long-term demand forecast has accelerated, driven by an expanded outlook for data center development in the company's service territory. The underlying quarterly sales growth, led by these Very Large Customers (VLCs), remains robust and stable in the low-single-digit range when excluding them. |
| Weather-Normal Retail Electric Sales Growth (ex-mine & VLCs) | 0.4% (Q3 2026) | Indicates underlying organic growth in the core utility customer base, separate from the large data center projects. |
Growth Inflection vs. Execution Risk
BULL VIEW
The $47.5B plan is a de-risked growth engine, backed by contracts with Microsoft and Oracle and a favorable regulatory structure that ensures high returns.
CORE TENSION
Can a $47.5B capex plan sustain 7-9+% growth against the risk of project delays?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bulls. Management just raised all forward guidance and has a perfect recent record of delivering on its stated commitments.
BEAR VIEW
The plan's unprecedented scale invites significant execution risk. Any major delay or cost overrun could derail the entire accelerated growth narrative.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
by the end of the year 2026 | Wisconsin Rate Case Outcome Watch: The final orders from the PSCW, specifically the approved ROE, capital structure, and any changes to cost recovery. |
December 2026 | Illinois Rate Case Decision Watch: The final order from the Illinois Commerce Commission and any deviation from the proposed order's terms. |
January 2027 | New Wisconsin Rates Effective Watch: New rates for Wisconsin utilities are scheduled to become effective. |
2/3/2027 | Capital Plan Execution Update Watch: Management commentary on project timelines, costs, supply chain, and progress against the new capital plan. |
February 2027 | Peer Results Signal Headwinds Watch: Peer commentary on data center load growth, capital project execution, supply chain constraints, and regulatory interactions. |
December | Illinois Rate Case Decision Watch: A final decision is expected in the Illinois rate filings for Peoples Gas and North Shore Gas for test year 2027. |
December | Dividend and Guidance Update Watch: The company will provide its 2027 dividend plan and earnings guidance. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-10-29 | Announced New Capital Plan Details: Management announced a new five-year capital plan of $47.5 billion for 2027-2031, an increase of $10 billion, supporting a projected 7% to 9+% compound annual EPS growth rate. | +5.0% $110.50 -> $116.07 |
2026-10-29 | Reported Third Quarter Results Details: The company reported Q3 2026 net income of $389.3 million, or $1.18 per share, and raised its full-year 2026 EPS guidance to a range of $5.60 to $5.64. | +5.0% $110.50 -> $116.07 |
2026-10-15 | Declared Quarterly Dividend Details: The board of directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of 95.25 cents per share on the company's common stock, payable December 1, 2026. | +1.8% $106.75 -> $108.71 |
2026-08-10 | Released Corporate Responsibility Report Details: The company released its 2025 Corporate Responsibility Report, outlining progress in delivering energy while investing in infrastructure and generation to serve growing customer demand. | -0.9% $106.70 -> $105.76 |
2026-07-29 | Reported Second Quarter Results Details: The company reported Q2 2026 net income of $299.2 million, or 91 cents per share. The two-day stock reaction around the earnings call was -3.0%. | -3.1% $112.63 -> $109.10 |
2026-06-30 | Analyst Highlights Growth Drivers Details: A news report highlighted that WEC Energy is positioned to capitalize on the AI data center boom and is on track to become a Dividend Aristocrat in 2028. | -1.9% $117.42 -> $115.22 |
2026-05-05 | Reported First Quarter Results Details: The company reported Q1 2026 net income of $804.4 million, or $2.45 per share. The two-day stock reaction around the earnings call was -2.0%. | -2.1% $114.45 -> $112.00 |
Position Sizing
5% - 7%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: WEC trades at roughly 19% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 10% for the S&P 500 (1.8x the market). A 5% - 7% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
XEL - Xcel Energy
Broader Data Center ExposureXcel Energy is pursuing a similarly large 4 gigawatts of new data center contracts, potentially offering exposure to different geographies and regulatory environments within the same theme.
AEE - a business partner
Diversified Regulatory Footprinta business partner provides exposure to the data center growth trend in a different primary state (Missouri), having already signed agreements for 2.8 gigawatts of projects.
A regulated utility transforming into a de-risked infrastructure growth company, fueled by the AI-driven data center buildout.
WEC Energy is no longer a slow-growth utility. It is executing a massive, $47.5 billion capital plan to serve 4.9 GW of new, contracted demand from data center customers like Microsoft and Oracle. This growth is secured under a constructive 'Very Large Customer' tariff in Wisconsin that provides high returns (10.48%-10.98% ROE) and protects existing customers, making it politically durable. The result is an acceleration in expected earnings growth to a 7%-9+% CAGR, well above the typical utility average.
Announcements of new VLCs or expansions beyond the current 4.9 GW forecast; timely regulatory approvals for new generation and transmission projects; execution of the capital plan on time and on budget.
Any regulatory challenge or change to the VLC tariff in Wisconsin; significant project delays or cost overruns; a major VLC partner pulling back on its expansion plans.
Quarter-to-quarter earnings fluctuations due to weather; short-term commodity price movements.
Repricing Catalyst
The market's digestion of the new, upsized $47.5 billion capital plan and the accelerated 7%-9+% long-term EPS growth guidance, which was announced in October 2026.
Wisconsin
$7.6B TTM (75% of Total)What It Is
Generates and distributes electricity and distributes natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers in Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.
Who Pays & How
Residential, commercial, and industrial customers, including new Very Large Customers (VLCs) like data centers, pay for reliable, regulated energy supply. The state's economic growth and ability to attract large businesses depend on this infrastructure.
Competition
Illinois
$1.6B TTM (16% of Total)What It Is
Distributes natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers in Chicago and its northern suburbs through its subsidiaries Peoples Gas (PGL) and North Shore Gas (NSG).
Who Pays & How
Residential and business customers pay for essential natural gas distribution services. A key driver of investment is the need to replace old iron pipes with modern polyethylene pipes to ensure long-term safety and reliability.
Competition
Other states
$560M TTM (6% of Total)What It Is
Distributes natural gas to customers in Minnesota and Michigan through its subsidiaries Minnesota Energy Resources (MERC) and Michigan Gas Utilities (MGU).
Who Pays & How
Residential, commercial, and industrial customers pay for natural gas distribution services.
Competition
Non-Utility Energy Infrastructure
$813M TTM (8% of Total)What It Is
Owns and leases power generating facilities to its utility affiliate (We Power), owns underground natural gas storage facilities (Bluewater), and holds majority interests in a fleet of renewable generating facilities (WECI) that sell power to third parties under long-term agreements.
Who Pays & How
The WE utility pays We Power via long-term leases, with costs recovered in regulated rates. Third-party utilities and corporations pay WECI for renewable energy under Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs).
Competition
Industry Resources
| Utilities Resources |
| Data.gov Energy Infrastructure |
| Data.gov Energy Resources |
| Utility Dive |
| Electric Utilities Resources |
| T&D World |
| Edison Electric Institute (EEI) |
| Smart Energy International |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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