Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Smart Metering, Grid Automation, Show more.
 
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Smart Metering, Grid Automation, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ATO Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the positive movement in Atmos Energy (ATO) stock during the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: 1. Strong Fiscal 2025 Results. Atmos Energy reported robust fourth-quarter and full-year fiscal 2025 financial results on November 5-6, 2025, with diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $7.46 for the full year and $1.07 for the fourth quarter, surpassing analyst expectations for both EPS and revenue. This strong performance led to an immediate stock price increase of 2.55% to 3.04% following the announcement.

2. Positive Fiscal 2026 Guidance. The company provided an optimistic outlook for fiscal 2026, initiating EPS guidance in the range of $8.15-$8.35 per diluted share, which represents an anticipated 6-8% annual growth through fiscal 2030. This guidance, exceeding some analyst estimates, bolstered investor confidence in future earnings.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ATO Return-13%13%10%6%23%25%76%
Peers Return-15%28%1%-12%17%23%38%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ATO Win Rate42%42%58%67%58%80% 
Peers Win Rate47%60%48%38%52%66% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ATO Max Drawdown-28%-11%-5%-7%-4%-2% 
Peers Max Drawdown-36%-6%-12%-23%-10%-2% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: UGI, NFG, SWX, OGS, NJR. See ATO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventATOS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-20.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven25.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven280 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-33.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven49.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven739 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-15.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven18.3%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven150 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-39.0%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven63.9%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven680 days1480 days

Compare to UGI, NFG, SWX, OGS, NJR


In The Past

Atmos Energy's stock fell -20.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -20.0% loss requires a 25.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Atmos Energy (ATO)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ATO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PEG_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025PEGPublic Service EnterpriseMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.7%-0.7%-0.7%
PCG_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025PCGPG&EDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
2.5%2.5%0.0%
AES_9052025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09052025AESAESDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
9.3%9.3%-3.2%
ATO_9302022_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%09302022ATOAtmos EnergyQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
11.7%6.7%-3.7%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PEG_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025PEGPublic Service EnterpriseMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.7%-0.7%-0.7%
PCG_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025PCGPG&EDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
2.5%2.5%0.0%
AES_9052025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09052025AESAESDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
9.3%9.3%-3.2%
ATO_9302022_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%09302022ATOAtmos EnergyQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
11.7%6.7%-3.7%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Atmos Energy

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ATOUGINFGSWXOGSNJRMedian
NameAtmos En.UGI National.Southwes.ONE Gas New Jers. 
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Returns

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Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity5,125,778
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-5.7%
Average Daily Volume1,074,100
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.77
Basic Shares Quantity159,285,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024204202510-Q 12/31/2024
93020241118202410-K 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023206202410-Q 12/31/2023
93020231114202310-K 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022207202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221114202210-K 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022504202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021208202210-Q 12/31/2021
93020211112202110-K 9/30/2021