Atmos Energy (ATO)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $169.38 | Market Cap: $27.3 BilSector: Utilities | Industry: Gas Utilities
Atmos Energy (ATO)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $169.38Market Cap: $27.3 BilSector: UtilitiesIndustry: Gas Utilities
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.4% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -15% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 5.8x |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -32% | |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 33% | Key risksATO key risks include [1] executing its substantial multi-year capital expenditure program and [2] its critical dependence on timely and favorable regulatory approvals for cost recovery. | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44%, CFO LTM is 2.0 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 18% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Smart Metering, Grid Automation, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.4% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 33% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44%, CFO LTM is 2.0 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 18% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Smart Metering, Grid Automation, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -15% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 5.8x |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -32% |
| Key risksATO key risks include [1] executing its substantial multi-year capital expenditure program and [2] its critical dependence on timely and favorable regulatory approvals for cost recovery. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ATO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong Fiscal 2025 Fourth Quarter Earnings: Atmos Energy (ATO) reported robust financial results for its fourth fiscal quarter and full fiscal year 2025, ending September 30, 2025. The company exceeded analyst expectations, with diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.07, surpassing forecasts of $0.95 by 12.63%, and revenue exceeding projections at $754.64 million. This strong performance contributed to a 2.55% rise in the stock on November 6, 2025.
2. Upbeat Fiscal 2026 Earnings Guidance: Following the strong fiscal 2025 results, Atmos Energy provided optimistic earnings guidance for fiscal 2026, projecting diluted EPS in the range of $8.15 to $8.35. This guidance, which was higher than previous estimates, suggested continued growth and stability for the company.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ATO Return | -13% | 13% | 10% | 6% | 23% | 23% | 74% |
| Peers Return | -11% | 28% | 9% | -3% | 25% | 17% | 77% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ATO Win Rate | 42% | 42% | 58% | 67% | 58% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 53% | 57% | 57% | 60% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ATO Max Drawdown | -28% | -11% | -5% | -7% | -4% | -2% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -36% | -7% | -7% | -14% | -8% | -7% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SRE, SO, CNP, NI, NFG. See ATO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ATO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 280 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -33.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 739 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -15.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 150 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -39.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 680 days | 1480 days |
Compare to UGI, NFG, SWX, OGS, NJR
In The Past
Atmos Energy's stock fell -20.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -20.0% loss requires a 25.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ATO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.9% | -0.9% | -2.4% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -0.8% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.7% | 6.7% | -3.2% |
| 09302022 | ATO | Atmos Energy | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 11.7% | 6.7% | -3.7% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.9% | -0.9% | -2.4% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -0.8% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.7% | 6.7% | -3.2% |
| 09302022 | ATO | Atmos Energy | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 11.7% | 6.7% | -3.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Atmos Energy
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 84.44 |
| Mkt Cap | 26.3 |
| Rev LTM | 7,721 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,896 |
| FCF LTM | -1,667 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -876 |
| CFO LTM | 2,395 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,576 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 11.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 12.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 26.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 24.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 34.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 32.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -19.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -14.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 26.3 |
| P/S | 3.6 |
| P/EBIT | 12.3 |
| P/E | 23.2 |
| P/CFO | 10.4 |
| Total Yield | 6.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -6.8% |
| D/E | 0.7 |
| Net D/E | 0.7 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -4.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 2.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 7.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 19.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 42.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 0.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -4.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 8.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -29.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2025 | 1.7% | 3.0% | -2.6% |
| 8/6/2025 | 3.6% | 6.3% | 6.6% |
| 5/7/2025 | -0.9% | -6.4% | -5.9% |
| 2/4/2025 | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.4% |
| 11/6/2024 | 1.8% | 5.5% | 2.8% |
| 8/7/2024 | -0.9% | 0.4% | 2.7% |
| 5/8/2024 | -0.7% | -2.3% | -4.1% |
| 2/6/2024 | 0.1% | -0.1% | 4.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 12 | 13 |
| # Negative | 10 | 12 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.4% |
| Median Negative | -0.9% | -2.3% | -3.9% |
| Max Positive | 8.4% | 8.9% | 14.8% |
| Max Negative | -2.9% | -6.4% | -5.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11142025 | 10-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2042025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11182024 | 10-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2062024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11142023 | 10-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2072023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 10-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2082022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
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