Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.4%
Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -15%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 5.8x
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%
  Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -32%
2 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 33%
  Key risks
ATO key risks include [1] executing its substantial multi-year capital expenditure program and [2] its critical dependence on timely and favorable regulatory approvals for cost recovery.
3 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44%, CFO LTM is 2.0 Bil
  
4 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 18%
  
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Smart Metering, Grid Automation, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.4%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%
2 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 33%
3 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44%, CFO LTM is 2.0 Bil
4 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 18%
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Smart Metering, Grid Automation, Show more.
6 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -15%
7 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 5.8x
8 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -32%
9 Key risks
ATO key risks include [1] executing its substantial multi-year capital expenditure program and [2] its critical dependence on timely and favorable regulatory approvals for cost recovery.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ATO Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Strong Fiscal 2025 Fourth Quarter Earnings: Atmos Energy (ATO) reported robust financial results for its fourth fiscal quarter and full fiscal year 2025, ending September 30, 2025. The company exceeded analyst expectations, with diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.07, surpassing forecasts of $0.95 by 12.63%, and revenue exceeding projections at $754.64 million. This strong performance contributed to a 2.55% rise in the stock on November 6, 2025.



2. Upbeat Fiscal 2026 Earnings Guidance: Following the strong fiscal 2025 results, Atmos Energy provided optimistic earnings guidance for fiscal 2026, projecting diluted EPS in the range of $8.15 to $8.35. This guidance, which was higher than previous estimates, suggested continued growth and stability for the company.



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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ATO Return-13%13%10%6%23%23%74%
Peers Return-11%28%9%-3%25%17%77%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ATO Win Rate42%42%58%67%58%75% 
Peers Win Rate57%53%57%57%60%60% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ATO Max Drawdown-28%-11%-5%-7%-4%-2% 
Peers Max Drawdown-36%-7%-7%-14%-8%-7% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SRE, SO, CNP, NI, NFG. See ATO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventATOS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-20.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven25.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven280 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-33.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven49.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven739 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-15.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven18.3%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven150 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-39.0%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven63.9%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven680 days1480 days

Compare to UGI, NFG, SWX, OGS, NJR


In The Past

Atmos Energy's stock fell -20.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -20.0% loss requires a 25.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Atmos Energy (ATO)

Better Bets than Atmos Energy (ATO)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ATO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PEG_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025PEGPublic Service EnterpriseMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.9%-0.9%-2.4%
PCG_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025PCGPG&EDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-0.8%
AES_9052025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09052025AESAESDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.7%6.7%-3.2%
ATO_9302022_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%09302022ATOAtmos EnergyQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
11.7%6.7%-3.7%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PEG_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025PEGPublic Service EnterpriseMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.9%-0.9%-2.4%
PCG_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025PCGPG&EDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-0.8%
AES_9052025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09052025AESAESDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.7%6.7%-3.2%
ATO_9302022_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%09302022ATOAtmos EnergyQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
11.7%6.7%-3.7%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Atmos Energy

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ATOSRESOCNPNINFGMedian
NameAtmos En.Sempra Southern CenterPo.NiSource National. 
Mkt Price169.1786.7887.0338.3141.2582.1084.44
Mkt Cap27.556.795.925.019.58.326.3
Rev LTM4,70313,71128,9129,1146,3272,2787,721
Op Inc LTM1,5603,0867,4262,0511,7409551,896
FCF LTM-1,512-6,210-1,823-2,800-536187-1,667
FCF 3Y Avg-687-4,947-1,031-1,810-722183-876
CFO LTM2,0494,8079,3782,6012,1901,1002,395
CFO 3Y Avg2,4144,0528,6102,7381,9131,1342,576

Growth & Margins

ATOSRESOCNPNINFGMedian
NameAtmos En.Sempra Southern CenterPo.NiSource National. 
Rev Chg LTM12.9%6.1%9.4%6.4%19.6%17.1%11.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg4.0%-1.3%1.3%0.9%5.1%2.0%1.6%
Rev Chg Q12.1%13.5%7.5%7.1%18.3%25.3%12.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.7%2.8%1.9%1.5%3.2%4.3%2.4%
Op Mgn LTM33.2%22.5%25.7%22.5%27.5%41.9%26.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg30.2%21.0%23.7%21.1%25.5%38.1%24.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.2%-0.3%0.3%0.5%0.5%0.8%0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM43.6%35.1%32.4%28.5%34.6%48.3%34.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg55.4%27.8%31.6%30.4%32.9%53.3%32.2%
FCF/Rev LTM-32.2%-45.3%-6.3%-30.7%-8.5%8.2%-19.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-15.2%-35.6%-3.7%-20.2%-12.7%8.5%-14.0%

Valuation

ATOSRESOCNPNINFGMedian
NameAtmos En.Sempra Southern CenterPo.NiSource National. 
Mkt Cap27.556.795.925.019.58.326.3
P/S5.84.33.62.83.23.73.6
P/EBIT-17.812.512.111.5-12.3
P/E22.927.223.424.522.816.123.2
P/CFO13.412.211.19.79.37.610.4
Total Yield5.4%5.8%7.1%6.3%6.9%8.5%6.6%
Dividend Yield1.0%2.2%2.9%2.2%2.5%2.3%2.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg--9.4%-1.3%-8.5%-5.1%--6.8%
D/E-0.60.70.90.8-0.7
Net D/E-0.60.70.90.8-0.7

Returns

ATOSRESOCNPNINFGMedian
NameAtmos En.Sempra Southern CenterPo.NiSource National. 
1M Rtn-3.7%-5.2%-3.9%-4.7%-4.5%1.9%-4.2%
3M Rtn4.1%6.5%-4.2%1.2%4.8%-6.1%2.7%
6M Rtn12.2%19.4%-0.2%9.0%6.4%-2.7%7.7%
12M Rtn22.4%3.1%8.0%23.7%17.1%39.1%19.7%
3Y Rtn58.8%22.4%41.3%38.2%67.8%44.4%42.9%
1M Excs Rtn-4.4%-5.9%-4.7%-5.4%-5.2%1.2%-4.9%
3M Excs Rtn3.4%5.4%-5.4%-0.2%2.1%-6.8%0.9%
6M Excs Rtn-0.2%7.0%-12.6%-3.4%-6.0%-15.1%-4.7%
12M Excs Rtn12.0%-10.6%-3.0%11.8%5.0%26.4%8.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-15.2%-52.1%-30.3%-34.7%-6.0%-28.1%-29.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Distribution24,32921,71621,42518,84714,578
Pipeline and Storage6,1825,5054,7974,0773,648
Eliminations-5,316-4,704-4,029-3,315-2,867
Total25,19422,51722,19319,60915,359


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity5,615,247
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520259.6%
Average Daily Volume1,438,070
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.90
Basic Shares Quantity161,037,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.5%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/5/20251.7%3.0%-2.6%
8/6/20253.6%6.3%6.6%
5/7/2025-0.9%-6.4%-5.9%
2/4/20251.9%1.9%3.4%
11/6/20241.8%5.5%2.8%
8/7/2024-0.9%0.4%2.7%
5/8/2024-0.7%-2.3%-4.1%
2/6/20240.1%-0.1%4.1%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive141213
# Negative101211
Median Positive1.8%2.5%3.4%
Median Negative-0.9%-2.3%-3.9%
Max Positive8.4%8.9%14.8%
Max Negative-2.9%-6.4%-5.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251114202510-K 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024204202510-Q 12/31/2024
93020241118202410-K 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023206202410-Q 12/31/2023
93020231114202310-K 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022207202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221114202210-K 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022504202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021208202210-Q 12/31/2021