Atmos Energy (ATO)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $171.15 | Market Cap: $27.3 BilSector: Utilities | Industry: Gas Utilities
Atmos Energy (ATO)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $171.15Market Cap: $27.3 BilSector: UtilitiesIndustry: Gas Utilities
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Smart Metering, Grid Automation, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Smart Metering, Grid Automation, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ATO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the positive movement in Atmos Energy (ATO) stock during the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Strong Fiscal 2025 Results. Atmos Energy reported robust fourth-quarter and full-year fiscal 2025 financial results on November 5-6, 2025, with diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $7.46 for the full year and $1.07 for the fourth quarter, surpassing analyst expectations for both EPS and revenue. This strong performance led to an immediate stock price increase of 2.55% to 3.04% following the announcement.
2. Positive Fiscal 2026 Guidance. The company provided an optimistic outlook for fiscal 2026, initiating EPS guidance in the range of $8.15-$8.35 per diluted share, which represents an anticipated 6-8% annual growth through fiscal 2030. This guidance, exceeding some analyst estimates, bolstered investor confidence in future earnings.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ATO Return | -13% | 13% | 10% | 6% | 23% | 25% | 76% |
| Peers Return | -15% | 28% | 1% | -12% | 17% | 23% | 38% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ATO Win Rate | 42% | 42% | 58% | 67% | 58% | 80% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 47% | 60% | 48% | 38% | 52% | 66% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ATO Max Drawdown | -28% | -11% | -5% | -7% | -4% | -2% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -36% | -6% | -12% | -23% | -10% | -2% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: UGI, NFG, SWX, OGS, NJR. See ATO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ATO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 280 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -33.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 739 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -15.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 150 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -39.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 680 days | 1480 days |
Compare to UGI, NFG, SWX, OGS, NJR
In The Past
Atmos Energy's stock fell -20.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -20.0% loss requires a 25.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ATO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.7% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.3% | 9.3% | -3.2% |
| 09302022 | ATO | Atmos Energy | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 11.7% | 6.7% | -3.7% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.7% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.3% | 9.3% | -3.2% |
| 09302022 | ATO | Atmos Energy | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 11.7% | 6.7% | -3.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Atmos Energy
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Returns
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Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2042025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11182024 | 10-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2062024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11142023 | 10-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2072023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 10-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2082022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11122021 | 10-K 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |