Atmos Energy (ATO)
Market Price (2/10/2026): $171.405 | Market Cap: $27.9 BilSector: Utilities | Industry: Gas Utilities
Atmos Energy (ATO)
Market Price (2/10/2026): $171.405Market Cap: $27.9 BilSector: UtilitiesIndustry: Gas Utilities
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.5% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.2%, Dist 3Y High is -2.2% | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -33% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -7.7% | Key risksATO key risks include [1] executing its substantial multi-year capital expenditure program and [2] its critical dependence on timely and favorable regulatory approvals for cost recovery. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 33% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 43%, CFO LTM is 2.1 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 17% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Smart Metering, Grid Automation, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.5% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 33% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 43%, CFO LTM is 2.1 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 17% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Smart Metering, Grid Automation, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.2%, Dist 3Y High is -2.2% |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -7.7% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -33% |
| Key risksATO key risks include [1] executing its substantial multi-year capital expenditure program and [2] its critical dependence on timely and favorable regulatory approvals for cost recovery. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Atmos Energy (ATO) stock has remained largely at the same level since 10/31/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. Analyst Downgrades and Reduced Price Targets.
Atmos Energy experienced analyst downgrades during this period, signaling a more cautious outlook. Morgan Stanley downgraded Atmos Energy from "Overweight" to "Equal-Weight" in December 2025, also lowering its price target from $182.00 to $172.00. The firm cited its 2026 outlook for the utilities group and recommended avoiding political and regulatory risk in an active election year as reasons for the downgrade. Earlier, in October 2025, B of A Securities also downgraded the stock to "Neutral" with a price target of $185.00. These shifts from more positive ratings to neutral stances, accompanied by revised price targets, likely contributed to investor apprehension and downward pressure on the stock.
2. Volatility and Elevated Natural Gas Prices.
Despite being a natural gas distributor, Atmos Energy's stock movement can be influenced by significant volatility in natural gas prices, particularly during extreme weather events. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) increased its forecast for U.S. spot natural gas prices in late 2025 and early 2026, attributing this to a December cold snap. Further exacerbating this, January 2026 saw natural gas cash prices surge to "astronomical heights" in various regions due to plummeting production and a surge in heating demand during Winter Storm Fern. Such extreme price spikes and the expectation of elevated wholesale costs persisting through 2026 can raise concerns among investors regarding the timely recovery of these costs through regulated rates and the potential for regulatory scrutiny or impact on customer affordability.
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1. Analyst Downgrades and Reduced Price Targets.
Atmos Energy experienced analyst downgrades during this period, signaling a more cautious outlook. Morgan Stanley downgraded Atmos Energy from "Overweight" to "Equal-Weight" in December 2025, also lowering its price target from $182.00 to $172.00. The firm cited its 2026 outlook for the utilities group and recommended avoiding political and regulatory risk in an active election year as reasons for the downgrade. Earlier, in October 2025, B of A Securities also downgraded the stock to "Neutral" with a price target of $185.00. These shifts from more positive ratings to neutral stances, accompanied by revised price targets, likely contributed to investor apprehension and downward pressure on the stock.
2. Volatility and Elevated Natural Gas Prices.
Despite being a natural gas distributor, Atmos Energy's stock movement can be influenced by significant volatility in natural gas prices, particularly during extreme weather events. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) increased its forecast for U.S. spot natural gas prices in late 2025 and early 2026, attributing this to a December cold snap. Further exacerbating this, January 2026 saw natural gas cash prices surge to "astronomical heights" in various regions due to plummeting production and a surge in heating demand during Winter Storm Fern. Such extreme price spikes and the expectation of elevated wholesale costs persisting through 2026 can raise concerns among investors regarding the timely recovery of these costs through regulated rates and the potential for regulatory scrutiny or impact on customer affordability.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 2.0% change in ATO stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 5.3% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 2102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 170.74 | 174.13 | 2.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,623 | 4,869 | 5.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 25.0% | 25.7% | 2.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 23.5 | 22.7 | -3.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 159 | 163 | -2.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 2.0% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 2/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ATO | 2.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.5% | -3.8% |
| Sector (XLU) | -0.8% | 58.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 12.9% change in ATO stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 8.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 2102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 154.23 | 174.13 | 12.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,486 | 4,869 | 8.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 25.3% | 25.7% | 1.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 21.6 | 22.7 | 5.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 159 | 163 | -2.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 12.9% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 2/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ATO | 12.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.8% | 2.0% |
| Sector (XLU) | 3.9% | 59.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 24.9% change in ATO stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 16.9% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 1312025 | 2102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 139.37 | 174.13 | 24.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,165 | 4,869 | 16.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 25.0% | 25.7% | 2.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.8 | 22.7 | 9.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 156 | 163 | -4.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 24.9% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 2/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ATO | 25.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.0% | 17.6% |
| Sector (XLU) | 15.9% | 70.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 59.6% change in ATO stock from 1/31/2023 to 2/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 39.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 1312023 | 2102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 109.08 | 174.13 | 59.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,202 | 4,869 | 15.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 18.4% | 25.7% | 39.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.9 | 22.7 | 14.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 141 | 163 | -13.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 59.6% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 2/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ATO | 59.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 76.6% | 20.9% |
| Sector (XLU) | 39.3% | 72.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ATO Return | 13% | 10% | 6% | 23% | 23% | 2% | 104% |
| Peers Return | 28% | 9% | -3% | 25% | 18% | 4% | 107% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 2% | 85% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ATO Win Rate | 42% | 58% | 67% | 58% | 75% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 57% | 57% | 60% | 60% | 90% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 100% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ATO Max Drawdown | -11% | -5% | -7% | -4% | -2% | -1% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -7% | -7% | -14% | -8% | -7% | -2% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: SRE, SO, CNP, NI, NFG. See ATO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/10/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ATO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 280 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -33.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 739 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -15.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 150 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -39.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 680 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to SRE, SO, CNP, NI, NFG
In The Past
Atmos Energy's stock fell -20.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -20.0% loss requires a 25.1% gain to breakeven.
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About Atmos Energy (ATO)
Atmos Energy Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the regulated natural gas distribution, and pipeline and storage businesses in the United States. It operates through two segments, Distribution, and Pipeline and Storage. The Distribution segment is involved in the regulated natural gas distribution and related sales operations in eight states. This segment distributes natural gas to approximately three million residential, commercial, public authority, and industrial customers. As of September 30, 2021, it owned 71,921 miles of underground distribution and transmission mains. The Pipeline and Storage segment engages in the pipeline and storage operations. This segment transports natural gas for third parties and manages five underground storage reservoirs in Texas; and provides ancillary services to the pipeline industry, including parking arrangements, lending, and inventory sales. As of September 30, 2021, it owned 5,699 miles of gas transmission lines. Atmos Energy Corporation was founded in 1906 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
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- Like Duke Energy or Xcel Energy, but focused on natural gas distribution.
- Similar to your local electric utility, but providing natural gas instead of electricity.
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- Natural Gas Distribution: Providing regulated natural gas sales and transportation services directly to residential, commercial, and industrial customers.
- Pipeline and Storage: Operating regulated interstate and intrastate natural gas transmission pipelines and storage facilities that connect natural gas supplies to distribution markets.
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Atmos Energy (symbol: ATO) is one of the largest natural gas-only distributors in the United States. The company sells primarily to end-users rather than to other companies for resale.
Atmos Energy serves the following major categories of customers:
- Residential Customers: This category includes individual households that use natural gas for heating, cooking, water heating, and other domestic purposes. These customers represent the largest number of connections for Atmos Energy across its service territories.
- Commercial Customers: This segment comprises various businesses and institutions such as restaurants, retail establishments, office buildings, schools, hospitals, and government facilities. They utilize natural gas for space heating, water heating, cooking, and various operational processes.
- Industrial Customers: This category includes large industrial facilities, manufacturing plants, and other significant enterprises that consume natural gas as a fuel for industrial processes, power generation, or as a feedstock in their operations.
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```htmlKevin Akers, President and Chief Executive Officer
Kevin Akers was named President and Chief Executive Officer in October 2019. Prior to this, he served as Executive Vice President from November 2018 to October 2019, and as Senior Vice President, Safety and Enterprise Services, from January 2017 to October 2018. Akers also held leadership positions as president of the Kentucky/Mid-States Division from May 2007 to October 2016 and president of the Mississippi Division from 2002 to 2007. He joined Atmos Energy in 1991 and previously served as a senior gas engineer for the Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission from 1989 to 1991.
Christopher T. Forsythe, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Christopher T. Forsythe was appointed Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer in February 2017. He joined Atmos Energy in June 2003, progressing through roles as Director, Financial Reporting (September 2003) and Vice President and Controller (May 2009). Before his tenure at Atmos Energy, Forsythe worked as a senior manager at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP from 1993 to 2003.
John A. Paris, President, Mid-Tex Division
John A. Paris was named President of the Mid-Tex Division in May 2007, overseeing Atmos Energy's largest division. He joined Atmos Energy in 1985 and has held various positions in operations, marketing, and engineering, including previously serving as president of the Kentucky/Mid-States Division.
Daniel M. Meziere, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer
Daniel M. Meziere was named Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer in August 2020. He served as Vice President and Treasurer since 2011 and as Director of Accounting Services for nine years prior to that. Before joining Atmos Energy, Meziere was Vice President of Finance at Hilton Reservations Worldwide and held various roles in the energy industry for over 15 years with Oryx Energy and Santa Fe International.
Karen E. Hartsfield, Senior Vice President, General Counsel, and Corporate Secretary
Karen E. Hartsfield joined Atmos Energy in June 2015 as a Senior Attorney and was promoted to Senior Vice President, General Counsel, and Corporate Secretary in August 2017. Prior to her time at Atmos Energy, she spent 19 years in private practice, most recently as the Managing Partner of the Jackson Lewis LLP Dallas office.
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The key risks to Atmos Energy's business are primarily centered around its substantial capital expenditure plans and the regulatory environment in which it operates.
- Significant Capital Expenditure and Dependence on Regulatory Cost Recovery: Atmos Energy has embarked on an ambitious multi-year capital expenditure program, projected to be approximately $24 billion between fiscal years 2025 and 2029, primarily for modernizing and upgrading its infrastructure. This significant investment requires external funding and its success hinges on timely and favorable regulatory approvals for cost recovery and rate base growth. Should capital markets become less accommodating, or if there are delays or adverse decisions from regulatory authorities regarding rate adjustments and cost recovery, it could pressure the company's financial returns and strain its resources.
- Broader Regulatory and Legislative Changes: As a heavily regulated natural gas utility, Atmos Energy's financial performance is intrinsically linked to decisions made by regulatory bodies. Beyond capital expenditure recovery, the evolving regulatory and legislative landscape, including potential shifts in energy policy towards renewable sources and increasingly stringent environmental regulations, could challenge the company's traditional natural gas business model. Such changes could necessitate strategic adaptations to remain competitive and compliant.
- Volatility in Natural Gas Prices: While Atmos Energy generally has mechanisms to pass on the impact of fluctuating natural gas prices to its customers through rate adjustments, sudden and significant spikes in market gas prices could lead to temporary constraints on its cash flow. The company's free cash flow has notably fluctuated in the past, partly influenced by the timing of these market price movements and subsequent regulatory outcomes.
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The accelerating transition to building electrification and renewable energy sources for heating, cooling, and cooking in residential and commercial sectors, driven by evolving policies and technological advancements. This includes city and state-level mandates banning natural gas hookups in new construction, and the widespread adoption of electric heat pumps and induction stoves, which directly reduce the demand for natural gas and the associated distribution services provided by Atmos Energy.
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Atmos Energy (symbol: ATO) primarily operates within two main addressable markets in the United States: natural gas distribution and natural gas pipeline and storage.
For its natural gas distribution services, the U.S. natural gas distribution market was valued at approximately $170.0 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to $186.0 billion by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.0% between 2025 and 2032. Another estimate places the U.S. natural gas distribution market size at $174.7 billion in 2024 and $222.5 billion in 2025.
For its pipeline and storage businesses, the U.S. gas pipeline infrastructure market, which encompasses transmission pipelines, was valued at approximately $1,058.73 billion in 2024. This market is estimated to have grown to $1,149.26 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach around $2,431.55 billion by 2034, expanding at a CAGR of 8.67% between 2025 and 2034.
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Atmos Energy (ATO) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives:-
Capital Investment and Rate Base Expansion
Atmos Energy has an ambitious capital expenditure program focused on modernizing its natural gas distribution, transmission, and storage systems. The company plans to invest approximately $26 billion in capital through 2030, with about 85% allocated to safety and reliability initiatives. These significant investments are expected to support a 13-15% annual rate base growth, increasing from approximately $21 billion in fiscal 2025 to $40-44 billion by fiscal 2030. A larger rate base allows Atmos Energy to request higher rates from regulators, directly contributing to earnings growth. -
Constructive Regulatory Environment and Rate Adjustments
Atmos Energy benefits from a constructive regulatory environment, particularly in Texas, where the majority of its service territory is located. This environment supports predictable cash flows and enables the company to recover costs associated with its substantial capital investment programs. The company actively pursues approximately 20 rate filings per year to implement rate adjustments and earn a fair return on its investments. Recent legislative changes, such as Texas House Bill 4384, are particularly favorable, allowing Atmos Energy to recover over 95% of its capital spending within six months and 99% within 12 months, which is expected to boost revenue and earnings. For instance, in fiscal 2025, new rates worth $333.6 million were implemented, and in year-to-date fiscal 2026, rates worth $146.3 million were implemented. -
Customer Growth
Atmos Energy continues to experience strong customer growth, which directly contributes to increased revenue. In fiscal 2024, the company added nearly 3,500 new commercial customers, a 19% increase over the prior fiscal year, and 39 industrial customers expected to consume approximately 8.4 Bcf of gas annually when fully operational. Over the past year, it has added 58,000 residential customers, with over 75% of this growth occurring in Texas. Fiscal year 2025 saw significant customer expansion, with approximately 57,000 residential customers, nearly 3,200 commercial customers, and 29 industrial customers added. This demographic growth in the regions it serves, particularly in Texas, is a positive driver for the company.
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Capital Allocation Decisions (Last 3-5 Years)
Share Issuance
- Atmos Energy entered into a $1.7 billion equity distribution agreement in December 2024, intended for capital investments and general corporate purposes.
- This agreement succeeded a prior $1 billion at-the-market offering program that concluded earlier in 2024.
- The number of shares outstanding has increased year-over-year, with 0.161 billion shares in Q2 2025, representing a 5.07% increase from 2024.
Capital Expenditures
- For fiscal year 2025, Atmos Energy's capital expenditures totaled $3.6 billion, with 87% dedicated to safety and reliability initiatives. The company anticipates capital expenditures to be approximately $3.7 billion for the full fiscal year 2025.
- In fiscal year 2024, capital expenditures were $2.9 billion, with about 83% of the investment focused on safety and reliability projects, including the replacement of over 850 miles of pipeline and more than 55,000 service lines.
- Looking ahead, the company plans approximately $26 billion in capital spending from fiscal year 2026 through 2030, with over 85% allocated to safety and reliability, and anticipates fiscal 2026 capital expenditures of about $4.2 billion.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 87.30 |
| Mkt Cap | 27.6 |
| Rev LTM | 7,721 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,896 |
| FCF LTM | -1,726 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -879 |
| CFO LTM | 2,395 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,596 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 13.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 26.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 24.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 34.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 32.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -19.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -14.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 27.6 |
| P/S | 3.4 |
| P/EBIT | 12.4 |
| P/E | 23.1 |
| P/CFO | 10.5 |
| Total Yield | 6.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -3.7% |
| D/E | 0.6 |
| Net D/E | 0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 6.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 20.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 56.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -1.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 5.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -13.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $174.17 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 28.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/28/1983 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -2.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $168.72 | $163.72 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | 3.2% | 6.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 15.4% | 16.5% |
| Downside Capture | 20.51 | 6.39 |
| Upside Capture | 7.66 | 28.15 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 1.6% | 18.3% |
ATO Betas & Captures as of 1/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.39 | 0.21 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| Up Beta | -0.80 | -0.45 | -0.16 | 0.44 | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| Down Beta | 0.61 | 0.16 | -0.39 | -0.23 | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| Up Capture | 34% | 16% | 15% | 16% | 19% | 10% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 34 | 71 | 142 | 430 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 24 | 36 | 75 | 147 | 421 |
| Down Capture | 70% | 61% | 37% | -1% | 17% | 43% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 9 | 19 | 27 | 54 | 109 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 16 | 24 | 49 | 103 | 330 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ATO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATO | 25.1% | 16.5% | 1.18 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 15.6% | 15.5% | 0.73 | 70.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.3% | 19.3% | 0.65 | 17.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 76.7% | 25.0% | 2.25 | 13.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.4% | 16.6% | 0.37 | 3.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.5% | 16.6% | 0.21 | 51.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -27.3% | 44.7% | -0.58 | -0.1% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ATO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATO | 17.8% | 18.8% | 0.78 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 10.2% | 17.1% | 0.46 | 76.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.1% | 17.0% | 0.66 | 33.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.1% | 16.9% | 1.06 | 17.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.3% | 18.9% | 0.48 | 9.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.3% | 18.8% | 0.19 | 58.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 13.4% | 57.9% | 0.45 | 11.0% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ATO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATO | 12.2% | 21.2% | 0.52 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 10.1% | 19.1% | 0.46 | 82.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.7% | 17.9% | 0.75 | 45.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 15.7% | 15.5% | 0.84 | 13.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 17.6% | 0.39 | 12.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.2% | 20.7% | 0.27 | 62.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.8% | 66.7% | 1.08 | 7.1% |
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Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/3/2026 | 1.8% | 3.2% | |
| 11/5/2025 | 1.7% | 3.0% | -2.6% |
| 8/6/2025 | 3.6% | 6.3% | 6.6% |
| 5/7/2025 | -0.9% | -6.4% | -5.9% |
| 2/4/2025 | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.4% |
| 11/6/2024 | 1.8% | 5.5% | 2.8% |
| 8/7/2024 | -0.9% | 0.4% | 2.7% |
| 5/8/2024 | -0.7% | -2.3% | -4.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 13 | 13 |
| # Negative | 10 | 12 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.4% |
| Median Negative | -0.9% | -2.3% | -3.9% |
| Max Positive | 8.4% | 8.9% | 14.8% |
| Max Negative | -2.9% | -6.4% | -5.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/03/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/18/2024 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/14/2023 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/14/2022 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/04/2022 | 10-Q |
ATO Trade Sentinel
Core Investment Debate
Regulatory Risk vs. Regulated Growth Certainty
BULL VIEW
Consistent 6-8% EPS growth is locked in by a $26B capex plan in supportive states, making regulatory headwinds manageable noise within a durable compounding story.
CORE TENSION
Can Atmos's predictable rate base growth, driven by aggressive capex, offset the risk of adverse regulatory decisions and rising external costs (interest rates, commodity prices)?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
NEUTRAL
The pending $35.8 million Dallas Area Rate Review (DARR) case is the most immediate, tangible event that will tip the scales between the bull and bear case.
BEAR VIEW
A less favorable outcome in the pending Dallas rate case could signal a tougher regulatory environment, compressing returns on invested capital and breaking the growth algorithm.
Potential Catalysts
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Next 1-3 Months | Dallas Area Rate Review (DARR) Ruling Watch: Final approved revenue increase vs. the $35.8M requested and the approved Return on Equity (ROE) vs. the typical 9.75-9.8% range. |
Early May 2026 | Q2 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Updates to the full-year capital expenditure guidance. Any deviation from the ~$4.2B plan signals a change in the core growth algorithm. |
Anytime | Natural Gas Price Volatility Event Watch: Henry Hub front-month natural gas contract price. A sustained move above $4.75/MMBtu is the key threshold. |
Ongoing / H1 2026 | Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision Watch: 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield. A break and hold above 4.5% would trigger sector-wide de-rating. |
Key Events in Last 6 Months
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-02-03 | Q1 2026 Earnings Release Details: Atmos reported Q1 EPS of $2.44, beating consensus estimates of $2.41. The company affirmed its fiscal 2026 guidance and highlighted a $1B capital expenditure for the quarter. | Modest 1.37% gain |
2025-11-06 | Q4 2025 Earnings & FY26 Guidance Details: Reported Q4 EPS of $1.04, beating estimates of $0.98. Initiated FY26 EPS guidance of $8.15-$8.35 and announced a 14.9% dividend increase. | Rose significantly by 1.67% |
2025-10-15 | Announced $600M Senior Notes Offering Details: Atmos priced $600 million of 5.45% senior notes due 2055 to fund its capital expenditure program, demonstrating continued access to capital markets. | Flat (0.87%) |
2025-08-07 | Q3 2025 Earnings Report Details: Reported Q3 EPS of $1.16, in-line with estimates, and raised the lower end of its full-year 2025 guidance, signaling confidence in its operational execution. | Rose significantly by 3.63% |
Risk Management
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL
Volatility is stable and compressing. While Neutral sentiment and a premium valuation prevent an aggressive position, the high visibility and stable moat argue against a minimal one. This fits a standard allocation.
Diversification Alternatives
NFG
INDUSTRYOffers a more diversified model with E&P exposure, but this comes with higher commodity price risk and significant legal/environmental overhangs that ATO does not share.
Core Thesis: National Fuel Gas is an integrated natural gas company with utility, pipeline & storage, and exploration & production segments, offering a different risk/reward profile tied more to commodity prices.
WTRG
SECTORProvides exposure to the regulated utility space through water, which has similar characteristics but avoids direct natural gas commodity and regulatory risk.
Core Thesis: Essential Utilities (WTRG) is a regulated water and wastewater utility, offering a similar defensive, yield-oriented investment thesis but in a different commodity class.
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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