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Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.6%, Dividend Yield is 2.6%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -19%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -55%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 72%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, CFO LTM is 4.5 Bil
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.8%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 20%
  Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -36%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Wind Energy Development, Solar Energy Generation, and Battery Storage & Grid Modernization.
  Key risks
XEL key risks include [1] significant and escalating wildfire liabilities stemming from recent major incidents and [2] a heavy debt load creating potential liquidity concerns.
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.6%, Dividend Yield is 2.6%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, CFO LTM is 4.5 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 20%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Wind Energy Development, Solar Energy Generation, and Battery Storage & Grid Modernization.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -19%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -55%
5 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 72%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.8%
7 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -36%
8 Key risks
XEL key risks include [1] significant and escalating wildfire liabilities stemming from recent major incidents and [2] a heavy debt load creating potential liquidity concerns.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

XEL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

For the period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, Xcel Energy's (XEL) stock experienced movements that can be attributed to several key factors, including its third-quarter earnings report and strategic announcements. Notably, the stock rose by 2.05% in pre-market trading on October 30, 2025, despite an earnings per share (EPS) miss.

**1. Positive Market Reaction to Q3 2025 Earnings Despite EPS Miss.** Xcel Energy's stock saw a pre-market rise of 2.05% on October 30, 2025, even though its third-quarter 2025 GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.88 and ongoing diluted earnings per share of $1.24 missed analyst forecasts. This suggests investors focused on other positive aspects of the earnings report.

**2. Reaffirmed 2025 and Initiated 2026 Earnings Guidance.** The company's reaffirmation of its 2025 ongoing earnings per share guidance, ranging from $3.75 to $3.85, and the initiation of its 2026 ongoing EPS guidance of $4.04 to $4.16 provided a clear outlook for future profitability, instilling investor confidence.

**3. Strategic Infrastructure Investments and Long-Term Growth Objectives.** Xcel Energy's announcement of an updated five-year infrastructure investment plan, aimed at serving increased energy demand, progressing carbon reduction goals, and strengthening transmission and distribution systems, signaled a commitment to long-term growth and operational resilience. The company also highlighted long-term annual growth objectives of 6-8+% for EPS and 4-6% for dividends.

**4. Increased Recovery of Infrastructure Investments.** During the third quarter of 2025, ongoing earnings reflected an increased recovery of infrastructure investments, which helped to partially offset higher depreciation, interest charges, and operations and maintenance (O&M) expenses. This demonstrated regulatory support for the company's capital deployment.

**5. Favorable Analyst Sentiment and Price Targets.** Several Wall Street analysts maintained a "Buy" consensus rating for Xcel Energy, with average price targets suggesting a notable upside potential for the stock, reinforcing positive market sentiment.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
XEL Return8%4%6%-9%12%13%39%
Peers Return4%16%-1%-11%20%16%47%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
XEL Win Rate50%50%75%58%58%50% 
Peers Win Rate53%58%60%53%58%63% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
XEL Max Drawdown-21%-13%-13%-20%-22%-5% 
Peers Max Drawdown-28%-8%-16%-24%-6%-4% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NEE, SO, DUK, AEP, D. See XEL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventXELS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-28.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven40.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven723 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-29.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven42.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven137 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-18.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven22.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven285 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-34.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven53.4%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven931 days1,480 days

Compare to CNP, NEE, SRE, D, XEL


In The Past

Xcel Energy's stock fell -28.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/12/2022. A -28.9% loss requires a 40.7% gain to breakeven.

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Asset Allocation

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About Xcel Energy (XEL)

Better Bets than Xcel Energy (XEL)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to XEL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PEG_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025PEGPublic Service EnterpriseMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.9%-0.9%-2.4%
PCG_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025PCGPG&EDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.9%4.9%-0.8%
AES_9052025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09052025AESAESDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.6%5.6%-3.2%
XEL_5312023_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper05312023XELXcel EnergyMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-6.5%-13.7%-23.9%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PEG_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025PEGPublic Service EnterpriseMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.9%-0.9%-2.4%
PCG_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025PCGPG&EDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.9%4.9%-0.8%
AES_9052025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09052025AESAESDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.6%5.6%-3.2%
XEL_5312023_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper05312023XELXcel EnergyMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-6.5%-13.7%-23.9%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Xcel Energy

Peers to compare with:

Financials

XELNEESODUKAEPDMedian
NameXcel Ene.NextEra .Southern Duke Ene.American.Dominion. 
Mkt Price73.1480.2987.03117.43114.7160.1183.66
Mkt Cap43.3165.895.991.461.451.376.4
Rev LTM14,22826,29828,91231,65921,25715,22723,778
Op Inc LTM2,6377,4047,4268,5835,3004,5286,352
FCF LTM-5,1493,073-1,823-921-1,736-8,071-1,779
FCF 3Y Avg-2,4652,421-1,031-2,122-1,932-5,691-2,027
CFO LTM4,53811,9679,37812,0496,8584,6098,118
CFO 3Y Avg4,86911,8478,61010,5395,8345,6777,222

Growth & Margins

XELNEESODUKAEPDMedian
NameXcel Ene.NextEra .Southern Duke Ene.American.Dominion. 
Rev Chg LTM3.4%0.2%9.4%4.8%8.4%5.3%5.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-0.8%11.4%1.3%5.2%4.2%7.5%4.7%
Rev Chg Q7.4%5.3%7.5%4.8%10.9%9.3%7.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.9%1.5%1.9%1.2%2.9%2.2%1.9%
Op Mgn LTM18.5%28.2%25.7%27.1%24.9%29.7%26.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg18.2%31.5%23.7%25.1%21.6%27.0%24.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.5%-1.4%0.3%0.3%0.1%1.2%0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM31.9%45.5%32.4%38.1%32.3%30.3%32.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg34.1%44.6%31.6%34.6%29.0%38.4%34.4%
FCF/Rev LTM-36.2%11.7%-6.3%-2.9%-8.2%-53.0%-7.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-17.4%9.3%-3.7%-7.1%-9.7%-38.2%-8.4%

Valuation

XELNEESODUKAEPDMedian
NameXcel Ene.NextEra .Southern Duke Ene.American.Dominion. 
Mkt Cap43.3165.895.991.461.451.376.4
P/S3.45.93.63.02.83.43.4
P/EBIT17.220.712.510.410.610.111.5
P/E24.924.023.419.316.422.823.1
P/CFO10.513.011.18.08.811.310.8
Total Yield6.6%7.1%7.1%6.0%9.4%8.7%7.1%
Dividend Yield2.6%2.9%2.9%0.8%3.3%4.3%2.9%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-5.7%1.3%-1.3%-2.9%-4.3%-12.2%-3.6%
D/E0.70.60.70.90.80.90.8
Net D/E0.70.60.70.90.80.90.7

Returns

XELNEESODUKAEPDMedian
NameXcel Ene.NextEra .Southern Duke Ene.American.Dominion. 
1M Rtn-10.0%-5.7%-3.9%-6.2%-7.3%-1.2%-6.0%
3M Rtn1.5%15.0%-4.2%-2.2%7.5%2.0%1.8%
6M Rtn11.2%13.8%-0.2%4.3%15.2%13.5%12.3%
12M Rtn11.0%14.6%8.0%12.8%29.1%17.5%13.7%
3Y Rtn15.9%4.1%41.3%31.8%36.0%19.1%25.4%
1M Excs Rtn-10.8%-6.5%-4.7%-6.9%-8.0%-1.9%-6.7%
3M Excs Rtn-0.0%12.8%-5.4%-3.0%7.3%0.4%0.2%
6M Excs Rtn-1.2%1.4%-12.6%-8.1%2.8%1.1%-0.0%
12M Excs Rtn-0.1%1.4%-3.0%0.7%17.0%5.5%1.1%
3Y Excs Rtn-55.2%-67.2%-30.3%-39.2%-38.0%-52.0%-45.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Regulated Electric utility11,44812,12511,2059,8029,575
Regulated Natural Gas utility2,6483,0822,1321,6361,868
Non-segment revenues115    
Intersegment revenue-5-4   
Other 107948886
Total14,20615,31013,43111,52611,529


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Regulated Electric utility1,6861,6311,4781,4071,288
Regulated Natural Gas utility219264231190195
Other -159-112-124-111
Total1,9051,7361,5971,4731,372


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity32,278,969
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202524.9%
Average Daily Volume3,925,742
Days-to-Cover Short Interest8.22
Basic Shares Quantity592,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares5.5%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/30/2025-0.5%-1.3%-3.1%
7/31/20250.0%-0.3%-1.4%
4/24/2025-1.8%0.2%-0.8%
2/6/2025-0.8%1.9%3.3%
10/31/2024-0.2%-0.9%6.6%
8/1/20241.1%-1.6%3.6%
4/25/2024-1.9%-2.2%-2.3%
1/25/20240.8%3.8%-1.4%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive13139
# Negative101014
Median Positive0.7%1.6%3.8%
Median Negative-0.8%-1.6%-2.7%
Max Positive3.4%4.7%11.7%
Max Negative-2.2%-2.9%-8.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025424202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024425202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023221202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231027202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023727202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023427202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022223202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221027202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022728202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022428202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021223202210-K 12/31/2021