Xcel Energy (XEL)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $77.8 | Market Cap: $46.1 BilSector: Utilities | Industry: Multi-Utilities
Xcel Energy (XEL)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $77.8Market Cap: $46.1 BilSector: UtilitiesIndustry: Multi-Utilities
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Wind Energy Development, Solar Energy Generation, and Battery Storage & Grid Modernization. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Wind Energy Development, Solar Energy Generation, and Battery Storage & Grid Modernization. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
XEL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Xcel Energy's strong revenue performance and reaffirmed earnings guidance provided investor confidence. In the third quarter of 2025, Xcel Energy reported revenue of $3.92 billion, exceeding analyst estimates and marking a 7.4% increase year-over-year. Despite a slight miss on Q3 earnings per share (EPS) compared to consensus, the company reaffirmed its 2025 ongoing EPS guidance and initiated a positive outlook for 2026, signaling a stable financial trajectory.
2. The company's ambitious five-year infrastructure investment plan outlined significant future growth. Xcel Energy announced plans to invest $45 billion between 2025 and 2029 to expand transmission and renewable projects, including 5,168 megawatts of new capacity by 2030 in Texas and New Mexico. This substantial capital plan is projected to increase the company's rate base from $56 billion in 2025 to $94 billion by 2030, with an 11% compound annual growth rate, underscoring a robust long-term growth strategy.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| XEL Return | 8% | 4% | 6% | -9% | 12% | 21% | 49% |
| Peers Return | 0% | 15% | 2% | -11% | 18% | 18% | 45% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| XEL Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 75% | 58% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 55% | 60% | 58% | 57% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| XEL Max Drawdown | -21% | -13% | -13% | -20% | -22% | -5% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -34% | -10% | -14% | -24% | -11% | -10% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CNP, NEE, SRE, D, XEL. See XEL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | XEL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -28.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 723 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -29.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 137 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -18.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 285 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -34.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 53.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 931 days | 1480 days |
Compare to CNP, NEE, SRE, D, XEL
In The Past
Xcel Energy's stock fell -28.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/12/2022. A -28.9% loss requires a 40.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to XEL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.7% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.3% | 9.3% | -3.2% |
| 05312023 | XEL | Xcel Energy | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -6.5% | -13.7% | -23.9% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.7% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.3% | 9.3% | -3.2% |
| 05312023 | XEL | Xcel Energy | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -6.5% | -13.7% | -23.9% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Xcel Energy
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Returns
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Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regulated Electric utility | 11,448 | 12,125 | 11,205 | 9,802 | 9,575 |
| Regulated Natural Gas utility | 2,648 | 3,082 | 2,132 | 1,636 | 1,868 |
| Non-segment revenues | 115 | ||||
| Intersegment revenue | -5 | -4 | |||
| Other | 107 | 94 | 88 | 86 | |
| Total | 14,206 | 15,310 | 13,431 | 11,526 | 11,529 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regulated Electric utility | 1,686 | 1,631 | 1,478 | 1,407 | 1,288 |
| Regulated Natural Gas utility | 219 | 264 | 231 | 190 | 195 |
| Other | -159 | -112 | -124 | -111 | |
| Total | 1,905 | 1,736 | 1,597 | 1,473 | 1,372 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4242025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4252024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2212024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10272023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2232022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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