Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Wind Energy Development, Solar Energy Generation, and Battery Storage & Grid Modernization.
 
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Wind Energy Development, Solar Energy Generation, and Battery Storage & Grid Modernization.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

XEL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Xcel Energy's strong revenue performance and reaffirmed earnings guidance provided investor confidence. In the third quarter of 2025, Xcel Energy reported revenue of $3.92 billion, exceeding analyst estimates and marking a 7.4% increase year-over-year. Despite a slight miss on Q3 earnings per share (EPS) compared to consensus, the company reaffirmed its 2025 ongoing EPS guidance and initiated a positive outlook for 2026, signaling a stable financial trajectory.

2. The company's ambitious five-year infrastructure investment plan outlined significant future growth. Xcel Energy announced plans to invest $45 billion between 2025 and 2029 to expand transmission and renewable projects, including 5,168 megawatts of new capacity by 2030 in Texas and New Mexico. This substantial capital plan is projected to increase the company's rate base from $56 billion in 2025 to $94 billion by 2030, with an 11% compound annual growth rate, underscoring a robust long-term growth strategy.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
XEL Return8%4%6%-9%12%21%49%
Peers Return0%15%2%-11%18%18%45%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
XEL Win Rate50%50%75%58%58%50% 
Peers Win Rate52%55%60%58%57%60% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
XEL Max Drawdown-21%-13%-13%-20%-22%-5% 
Peers Max Drawdown-34%-10%-14%-24%-11%-10% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CNP, NEE, SRE, D, XEL. See XEL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventXELS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-28.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven40.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven723 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-29.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven42.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven137 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-18.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven22.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven285 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-34.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven53.4%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven931 days1480 days

Compare to CNP, NEE, SRE, D, XEL


In The Past

Xcel Energy's stock fell -28.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/12/2022. A -28.9% loss requires a 40.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Xcel Energy (XEL)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to XEL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PEG_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025PEGPublic Service EnterpriseMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.7%-0.7%-0.7%
PCG_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025PCGPG&EDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
2.5%2.5%0.0%
AES_9052025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09052025AESAESDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
9.3%9.3%-3.2%
XEL_5312023_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper05312023XELXcel EnergyMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-6.5%-13.7%-23.9%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PEG_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025PEGPublic Service EnterpriseMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.7%-0.7%-0.7%
PCG_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025PCGPG&EDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
2.5%2.5%0.0%
AES_9052025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09052025AESAESDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
9.3%9.3%-3.2%
XEL_5312023_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper05312023XELXcel EnergyMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-6.5%-13.7%-23.9%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Xcel Energy

Peers to compare with:

Financials

XELCNPNEESREDMedian
NameXcel Ene.CenterPo.NextEra .Sempra Dominion. 
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Valuation

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Returns

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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Regulated Electric utility11,44812,12511,2059,8029,575
Regulated Natural Gas utility2,6483,0822,1321,6361,868
Non-segment revenues115    
Intersegment revenue-5-4   
Other 107948886
Total14,20615,31013,43111,52611,529


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Regulated Electric utility1,6861,6311,4781,4071,288
Regulated Natural Gas utility219264231190195
Other -159-112-124-111
Total1,9051,7361,5971,4731,372


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity25,850,654
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202518.4%
Average Daily Volume5,132,820
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.04
Basic Shares Quantity592,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares4.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025424202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024425202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023221202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231027202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023727202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023427202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022223202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221027202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022728202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022428202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021223202210-K 12/31/2021