H2O America (HTO)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $47.97 | Market Cap: $1.7 BilSector: Utilities | Industry: Water Utilities
H2O America (HTO)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $47.97Market Cap: $1.7 BilSector: UtilitiesIndustry: Water Utilities
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.6%, Dividend Yield is 3.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.4% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -71%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -104% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 109% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28% | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -32% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Water Infrastructure. Themes include Water Treatment & Delivery, Wastewater Management, and Desalination. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.6%, Dividend Yield is 3.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.4% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Water Infrastructure. Themes include Water Treatment & Delivery, Wastewater Management, and Desalination. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -71%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -104% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 109% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -32% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
HTO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
H2O America (HTO) experienced a period of mixed news and analyst sentiment between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, during which its stock price reportedly saw a decline of 3.9%. This movement can be attributed to several factors despite generally positive company-specific developments.
1. Shareholder Dilution Concerns from Equity Offerings.
H2O America has consistently raised funds by selling shares "at the market" in recent quarters, including 495,500 shares at an average price of $53.87 in Q1 2025, generating over $26.5 million. This ongoing increase in share count has diluted the position of long-term shareholders.
2. High Capital Expenditure and Debt.
The company faces a significant "hunger for capital" with average capital spending projected at $400 million per annum in the coming years, compared to $113 million in depreciation and amortization in 2024. While H2O America maintains an investment-grade credit rating of "A-" with a stable outlook from S&P Global, its net debt was reported around $1.8 billion with EBITDA at $283 million. These substantial capital needs and elevated debt levels could weigh on investor sentiment.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HTO Return | -0% | 8% | 13% | -18% | -23% | -0% | -23% |
| Peers Return | 6% | 27% | -6% | 17% | -12% | 10% | 43% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HTO Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 58% | 33% | 33% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 62% | 47% | 52% | 42% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HTO Max Drawdown | -30% | -15% | -22% | -28% | -23% | -8% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -26% | -9% | -28% | -21% | -20% | -7% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CWT, MSEX, CWCO, AWK, WTRG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HTO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -31.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -33.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 975 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 81 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -56.5% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 129.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2725 days | 1480 days |
Compare to CWT, MSEX, CWCO, AWK, WTRG
In The Past
H2O America's stock fell -31.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/27/2022. A -31.4% loss requires a 45.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Would You Still Hold H2O America Stock If It Fell 30%? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to HTO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.7% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.3% | 9.3% | -3.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.7% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.3% | 9.3% | -3.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for H2O America
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 46.25 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.2 |
| Rev LTM | 903 |
| Op Inc LTM | 189 |
| FCF LTM | -219 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -170 |
| CFO LTM | 273 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 235 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 25.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 24.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 32.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 30.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -18.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -19.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.2 |
| P/S | 4.2 |
| P/EBIT | 12.9 |
| P/E | 21.4 |
| P/CFO | 12.6 |
| Total Yield | 7.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -3.9% |
| D/E | 0.6 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.7% |
| 6M Rtn | -3.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -3.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | -18.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -8.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -17.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -19.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -90.9% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10282025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4292025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10282024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7252024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4262024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7312023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5012023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10282022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7292022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4292022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |