TransAlta (TAC)
Market Price (7/22/2026): $13.98 | Market Cap: $4.2 BilSector: Utilities | Industry: Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders
TransAlta (TAC)
Market Price (7/22/2026): $13.98Market Cap: $4.2 BilSector: UtilitiesIndustry: Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23% Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 12% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Wind Energy Development, Solar Energy Generation, and Battery Storage & Grid Modernization. | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -18% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 101% Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 44x Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -17%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -13%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -25% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.8% Key risksTAC key risks include [1] execution challenges, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 12% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Wind Energy Development, Solar Energy Generation, and Battery Storage & Grid Modernization. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -18% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 101% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 44x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -17%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -13%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -25% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.8% |
| Key risksTAC key risks include [1] execution challenges, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Updated on 7/15/2026
TransAlta (TAC) stock has gained about 5% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. TransAlta exceeded earnings expectations for fiscal Q1 2026 (ended March 31, 2026). The company reported earnings per share (EPS) of $0.04 on May 6, 2026, significantly beating analysts' consensus estimates of $0.01 by 300%.
2. The company announced a strategic acquisition and a concurrent equity offering. On June 3, 2026, TransAlta announced the acquisition of two fully-contracted gas assets in Colorado, which one source reported as a $1 billion deal. This was accompanied by a $350 million bought deal offering of common shares, which closed on June 9, 2026, signaling aggressive expansion and a positive outlook for future growth.
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TransAlta (TAC) stock has gained about 5% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. TransAlta exceeded earnings expectations for fiscal Q1 2026 (ended March 31, 2026). The company reported earnings per share (EPS) of $0.04 on May 6, 2026, significantly beating analysts' consensus estimates of $0.01 by 300%.
2. The company announced a strategic acquisition and a concurrent equity offering. On June 3, 2026, TransAlta announced the acquisition of two fully-contracted gas assets in Colorado, which one source reported as a $1 billion deal. This was accompanied by a $350 million bought deal offering of common shares, which closed on June 9, 2026, signaling aggressive expansion and a positive outlook for future growth.
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Updated on 7/15/2026
TransAlta (TAC) stock has gained about 5% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. TransAlta exceeded earnings expectations for fiscal Q1 2026 (ended March 31, 2026). The company reported earnings per share (EPS) of $0.04 on May 6, 2026, significantly beating analysts' consensus estimates of $0.01 by 300%.
2. The company announced a strategic acquisition and a concurrent equity offering. On June 3, 2026, TransAlta announced the acquisition of two fully-contracted gas assets in Colorado, which one source reported as a $1 billion deal. This was accompanied by a $350 million bought deal offering of common shares, which closed on June 9, 2026, signaling aggressive expansion and a positive outlook for future growth.
3. An increase in the common share dividend demonstrated management's confidence. TransAlta's Board approved an 8% annualized increase to the common share dividend, declaring a dividend of $0.07 per common share payable on July 1, 2026, to shareholders of record on June 1, 2026.
4. Sustained positive analyst sentiment and price targets supported a bullish outlook. Throughout the period, Wall Street analysts maintained a "Strong Buy" or "Buy" consensus rating for TransAlta, with average price targets suggesting significant upside potential. For instance, in June 2026, several analysts reiterated Buy ratings with price targets ranging from $17.00 to $20.00, indicating continued confidence in the company's performance.
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TransAlta (TAC) stock has gained about 5% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. TransAlta exceeded earnings expectations for fiscal Q1 2026 (ended March 31, 2026). The company reported earnings per share (EPS) of $0.04 on May 6, 2026, significantly beating analysts' consensus estimates of $0.01 by 300%.
2. The company announced a strategic acquisition and a concurrent equity offering. On June 3, 2026, TransAlta announced the acquisition of two fully-contracted gas assets in Colorado, which one source reported as a $1 billion deal. This was accompanied by a $350 million bought deal offering of common shares, which closed on June 9, 2026, signaling aggressive expansion and a positive outlook for future growth.
3. An increase in the common share dividend demonstrated management's confidence. TransAlta's Board approved an 8% annualized increase to the common share dividend, declaring a dividend of $0.07 per common share payable on July 1, 2026, to shareholders of record on June 1, 2026.
4. Sustained positive analyst sentiment and price targets supported a bullish outlook. Throughout the period, Wall Street analysts maintained a "Strong Buy" or "Buy" consensus rating for TransAlta, with average price targets suggesting significant upside potential. For instance, in June 2026, several analysts reiterated Buy ratings with price targets ranging from $17.00 to $20.00, indicating continued confidence in the company's performance.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 7.2% change in TAC stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 16.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.05 | 13.99 | 7.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,405 | 2,212 | -8.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.6 | 1.9 | 16.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 297 | 297 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 7.2% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TAC | 7.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.1% | 23.0% |
| Sector (XLU) | -2.1% | 12.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 11.5% change in TAC stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 25.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 12.55 | 13.99 | 11.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,484 | 2,212 | -11.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.5 | 1.9 | 25.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 297 | 297 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 11.5% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TAC | 11.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 10.0% | 28.1% |
| Sector (XLU) | 6.0% | 22.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 31.5% change in TAC stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 57.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 10.64 | 13.99 | 31.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,656 | 2,212 | -16.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.2 | 1.9 | 57.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 298 | 297 | 0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 31.5% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TAC | 31.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 22.1% | 34.9% |
| Sector (XLU) | 12.4% | 26.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 57.7% change in TAC stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 163.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 8.87 | 13.99 | 57.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,330 | 2,212 | -33.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.7 | 1.9 | 163.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 268 | 297 | -9.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 57.7% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TAC | 57.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.8% | 36.7% |
| Sector (XLU) | 49.3% | 37.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TAC Return | 49% | -18% | -6% | 74% | -9% | 9% | 99% |
| Peers Return | 13% | -3% | 31% | 86% | 43% | -8% | 253% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 98% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TAC Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 58% | 67% | 50% | 43% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 56% | 53% | 60% | 60% | 62% | 51% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TAC Max Drawdown | -16% | -33% | -29% | -27% | -43% | -15% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -25% | -35% | -25% | -27% | -31% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: VST, NRG, CEG, NEE, AQN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/21/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TAC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -22.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 68 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -28.8% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 328 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -15.4% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.2% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 21 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -32.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.9% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 779 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -54.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 118.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 290 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -26.4% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.8% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 39 days | 105 days |
In The Past
TransAlta's stock fell -22.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 28.9% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | TAC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -22.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 68 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -28.8% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 328 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -32.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.9% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 779 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -54.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 118.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 290 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -26.4% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.8% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 39 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -48.8% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 95.2% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 97 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -74.9% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 298.2% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1854 days | 15 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -55.2% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 123.1% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 6066 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
TransAlta's stock fell -22.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 28.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About TransAlta (TAC)
TransAlta Corporation (TAC) is a Canadian-headquartered international power generation company that owns, operates, and develops a diverse portfolio of electricity-generating assets. Its operations span Canada, the United States, and Australia, utilizing a mix of renewable sources like hydro, wind, and solar, alongside natural gas and some remaining coal-fired facilities. The company also operates an "Energy Transition" segment, reflecting its strategic focus on evolving its power generation capabilities.
Beyond generating electricity from its various assets, TransAlta actively participates in the wholesale trading of electricity and other energy-related commodities and derivatives. Its primary customers include municipalities, various businesses, medium and large industrial clients, and utility companies that require a reliable supply of electrical power. Additionally, the company conducts related mining operations and natural gas pipeline operations, which support its broader energy business.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for TransAlta (TAC):
- Think of it as a diversified power generator and energy transition company, similar to a Canadian NextEra Energy, operating hydro, wind, solar, and natural gas facilities across North America and Australia.
- Imagine a power generation company similar to a large utility like Duke Energy or Southern Company, but focused on wholesale power production and trading across multiple international markets, utilizing a mix of renewable and natural gas assets.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Electricity Generation: TransAlta generates and sells electricity to various customers, utilizing a diverse portfolio of hydro, wind, solar, natural gas, and coal-fired facilities.
- Wholesale Electricity Trading: The company engages in the buying and selling of electricity in wholesale markets.
- Energy Commodity and Derivative Trading: TransAlta also trades various energy-related commodities and their associated derivatives.
AI Analysis | Feedback
TransAlta (TAC) primarily sells electricity and energy-related services to other companies and large organizations, not directly to individuals. Based on publicly available information and the nature of the energy generation business, identifying a comprehensive list of specific major customer companies with their stock symbols can be challenging due to contractual confidentiality and the structure of wholesale energy markets.
However, one identifiable major customer for TransAlta's Australian operations is:
- Fortescue Metals Group (ASX: FMG) - A leading global iron ore company. TransAlta's South Hedland and Parkeston power stations in Australia supply power to Fortescue's mining operations.
Beyond specific named companies like Fortescue, TransAlta generally describes its customer base through the following categories:
- Utility Customers: These are typically electricity distribution companies, independent system operators, or other utilities that purchase power from TransAlta for grid supply and subsequent distribution to their own customer bases. Specific publicly traded utility names are generally not disclosed as major off-takers for all of TransAlta's generation assets.
- Medium and Large Industries: TransAlta serves various industrial clients that require significant and reliable power supply, often through direct Power Purchase Agreements. These include operations in sectors such as mining, manufacturing, and resource extraction across its operating regions.
- Businesses: General commercial and industrial enterprises that are large consumers of electricity.
- Municipalities: Local government entities and public institutions that purchase electricity and energy services.
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John H. Kousinioris, President and Chief Executive Officer
John Kousinioris was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of TransAlta Corporation in April 2021. His prior leadership roles at TransAlta include Chief Legal and Compliance Officer, Chief Growth Officer, and Chief Operating Officer. He also served as President and a Director of TransAlta Renewables from 2017 to 2021. Before joining TransAlta in December 2012, Kousinioris was a partner and co-head of the corporate commercial department at Bennet Jones LLP, where he specialized in securities law, mergers and acquisitions, and corporate governance.
Joel Hunter, Executive Vice President, Finance and Chief Financial Officer
Joel Hunter was appointed Executive Vice President, Finance and Chief Financial Officer of TransAlta, effective July 1, 2024. He brings over 26 years of experience in the energy sector, encompassing finance, capital markets, and strategic planning. Prior to joining TransAlta, Hunter served as Executive Vice-President and CFO at TC Energy.
Jane N. Fedoretz, Executive Vice President, People, Culture and Chief Administrative Officer
Nancy L. Brennan, Executive Vice President, Legal and External Affairs
Mark A. Flickinger, Executive Vice President, Project Delivery and Construction
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to TransAlta's business include:
- Electricity Price Volatility: TransAlta is significantly exposed to the volatility of electricity prices, particularly in the Alberta market. Fluctuations in spot power prices can directly impact the company's revenues, earnings, and cash flow, as observed in past financial results where price volatility was a primary driver of performance. This risk persists despite hedging strategies.
- Regulatory and Policy Changes Related to Energy Transition: As TransAlta transitions its fleet to cleaner energy sources, it faces substantial risks from evolving climate policies, carbon pricing, emissions mandates, and renewable energy targets across its operating regions in Canada, the United States, and Australia. These regulatory shifts can influence operational costs, the competitive landscape, and long-term strategic planning, as evidenced by the complete cessation of coal-fired generation at its Centralia facility and the planned conversion to natural gas.
- Financial Health and Leverage: Concerns exist regarding TransAlta's financial health, with some analyses pointing to liquidity constraints and high leverage. Indicators such as a low Piotroski F-Score, low interest coverage, a high debt-to-equity ratio, and an Altman Z-Score in the distress zone suggest potential vulnerabilities in its ability to meet debt obligations and raise questions about financial stability.
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The proliferation of distributed generation technologies, such as rooftop solar combined with battery storage systems, and the development of localized microgrids, which allow consumers to generate and store their own electricity, reducing their reliance on centralized grid power.
AI Analysis | Feedback
TransAlta Corporation (TAC) operates in diverse electrical power generation markets across Canada, the United States, and Australia, focusing on hydro, wind, solar, and natural gas-fired facilities. The addressable markets for these main products and services vary by region and energy source.
Canada
- Renewable Energy (Hydro, Wind, and Solar): The renewable energy market in Canada, which includes hydro, wind, and solar, was valued at USD 100.4 billion in revenue in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 276.9 billion by 2033, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.3% from 2026 to 2033. In terms of installed capacity, this market is expected to grow from 114.06 gigawatts (GW) in 2025 to 127.91 GW by 2030. Hydropower significantly dominates this market, accounting for 75.6% of Canada's renewable energy installed capacity in 2024.
- Natural Gas Power Generation: While a precise revenue for the overall natural gas power generation market in Canada is not readily available, natural gas accounted for 15.4% of Canada's electricity generation in 2023. The market for natural gas generators specifically was valued at USD 268.0 million in 2021 and is projected to reach USD 566.7 million by 2030, with an 8.7% CAGR from 2022 to 2030.
- Overall Power Generation: The Canadian power generation industry had total revenues of $44.7 billion in 2022. The total installed electricity generation capacity in Canada was approximately 149 GW in 2021 and is projected to reach 170 GW in 2035.
United States
- Renewable Energy (Hydro, Wind, and Solar): The U.S. renewable energy market size reached USD 260.4 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 579.9 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 9.30% during 2026-2034. In terms of installed capacity, the market is estimated to grow from 481.5 GW in 2025 to 893.2 GW in 2032. Solar energy constituted approximately 77.1% of the U.S. Renewable Energy Market in 2024 by type segmentation.
- Natural Gas Power Generation: The U.S. natural gas-fired electricity generation market is projected to reach a revenue of USD 10,551.9 million by 2027 and US$ 12,459.0 million by 2030. The electric power sector is expected to account for nearly 40% of the broader U.S. natural gas market in 2025, with natural gas consumption in this sector averaging 36 billion cubic feet per day.
- Overall Power Generation: The U.S. power market was valued at USD 380.33 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 568.13 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 4.56% from 2026 to 2034. The total utility-scale electricity-generation capacity in the United States stood at approximately 1.19 terawatts (TW) at the end of 2023.
Australia
- Renewable Energy (Hydro, Wind, and Solar): The Australian renewable energy market was valued at USD 193.3 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 722.2 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 15.77% during 2026-2034. Another estimate places the market at USD 165.8 billion in 2024, anticipated to reach USD 687.9 billion by 2033. The installed capacity for renewable energy in Australia was 74.83 GW in 2025 and is estimated to grow to 168.14 GW by 2031. Solar power is a dominant and fast-growing segment within Australia's renewable energy market.
- Natural Gas Power Generation: In Australia, gas contributed 17% of the total electricity generation in 2024. Specific revenue figures for the natural gas power generation market are not distinctly available, but it remains a crucial part of the overall power mix.
- Overall Power Generation: The Australian power market was valued at approximately $60 billion annually in 2024, with a projected CAGR of about 3% over the next five years. The market size in terms of electricity generated reached 285.7 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2025 and is expected to reach 377.0 TWh by 2034. In terms of installed base, the market is expected to increase from 128.58 GW in 2025 to 208.32 GW by 2031.
AI Analysis | Feedback
TransAlta Corporation (TAC) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several strategic initiatives and market trends:
- Expansion of Renewable Energy Capacity: TransAlta is focused on significantly expanding its clean electricity portfolio. The company has set a target to add up to 1.75 gigawatts (GW) of new renewable capacity, including onshore wind, solar, and battery storage projects, by the end of 2028, backed by an investment of approximately $3.5 billion. This also includes expanding its development pipeline to 10 GW by 2028, with a strong emphasis on customer-centered renewable solutions.
- Conversion of Centralia Unit 2 to Natural Gas: A key project involves the conversion of the Centralia Unit 2 facility from coal to natural gas. This 700 MW conversion is supported by a tolling agreement with Puget Sound Energy, which secures long-term contracted capacity until 2044. The project is targeted for completion in late 2028, ensuring a stable revenue stream.
- Data Center Development in Alberta: TransAlta has entered into a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with CPP Investments and Brookfield to develop a data center at its Keephills site in Alberta. Under this agreement, TransAlta will be the exclusive site and power provider, starting with an initial long-term power purchase agreement (PPA) for approximately 230 MW, with potential for further expansion up to 1 GW of load. This initiative represents a new and growing revenue source by catering to the increasing demand for digital infrastructure.
- Strategic Acquisitions and Geographic Diversification: The company has expanded its operational footprint and capacity through strategic acquisitions. This includes the acquisition of Far North Power in early 2026, which added 315 MW of dispatchable generation in Ontario, enhancing market presence and revenue potential. Additionally, the acquisition of Heartland Generation Ltd. in late 2024, adding 1.7 GW of flexible capacity, contributes to a more diversified portfolio and revenue base.
- Increasing Electricity Demand and Favorable Market Dynamics: Analysts anticipate long-term cash flow improvement for TransAlta, driven by a combination of strong power and ancillary prices, increasing electricity demand, and higher carbon prices in Alberta. Broader trends such as population growth, economic development, and ongoing electrification are expected to further boost electricity demand, positively impacting TransAlta's financial outlook.
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Share Repurchases
- In 2024, TransAlta returned $143 million to shareholders through its enhanced share repurchase program, buying back and cancelling 13,467,400 common shares at an average price of $10.59 per share.
- On May 27, 2025, TransAlta announced the renewal of its Normal Course Issuer Bid (NCIB), authorizing the repurchase of up to 14 million common shares, approximately 4.7% of its outstanding shares, over the subsequent 12 months.
- As of May 6, 2025, under an NCIB, TransAlta had purchased and cancelled 1,932,800 common shares at an average price of $12.42 per share, for a total cost of $24 million.
Share Issuance
- On December 22, 2025, TransAlta issued US$400 million in senior notes with a 5.9% fixed annual coupon rate, maturing on February 1, 2034, generating net proceeds of $541 million (US$393 million), which were used to redeem existing senior notes.
Inbound Investments
- In 2025, TransAlta formed a strategic partnership with Nova Clean Energy, involving a $100 million revolving credit facility and a $75 million term loan, providing exclusive options for advanced-stage clean energy projects in the western U.S.
- In late 2025/early 2026, TransAlta signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Canada Pension Plan Investments and Brookfield for a data centre development at its Keephills site in Alberta, with TransAlta serving as the exclusive site and power provider.
Outbound Investments
- In early 2024, TransAlta finalized the acquisition of Heartland Generation's assets for CAD 658 million (purchase price of $542 million), adding between 1.7 GW and 1.8 GW of flexible natural gas capacity.
- TransAlta is executing a CAD 3.5 billion Clean Electricity Growth Plan from 2025 to 2028, aiming to add 1.5 GW of new renewable and storage capacity.
- In February 2026, TransAlta completed the $95 million acquisition of Far North, adding 310 MW of contracted natural gas capacity in Ontario.
Capital Expenditures
- TransAlta has an aggressive CAD 3.5 billion investment plan for 2025-2028, primarily focused on adding 1.5 GW of new renewable and storage capacity.
- For 2026, expected sustaining capital expenditures are projected to be between $140 million and $160 million.
- Actual sustaining capital expenditures in 2025 were $162 million, an increase from $142 million in 2024, driven by major maintenance for Canadian gas facilities (including Heartland assets) and the Wind and Solar segment. Significant future capital is also allocated to the US$600 million Centralia Unit 2 coal-to-gas conversion.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Would You Still Hold TransAlta Stock If It Fell Another 30%? | 10/17/2025 | |
| Fundamental Metrics: ... | 06/19/2024 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 109.77 |
| Mkt Cap | 41.0 |
| Rev LTM | 23,656 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,460 |
| FCF LTM | 822 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 727 |
| CFO LTM | 2,722 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,332 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 17.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.8% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 0.8% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 34.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 18.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 16.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 23.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 25.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.9% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gas | 1,328 | 1,314 | 1,514 | 1,209 | 1,109 |
| Energy Transition | 504 | 580 | 751 | 714 | 709 |
| Wind and Solar | 500 | 449 | 357 | 303 | 323 |
| Hydro | 364 | 390 | 533 | 606 | 383 |
| Energy Marketing | 122 | 182 | 220 | 160 | 211 |
| Equity accounted investments | -21 | -21 | -21 | -14 | -18 |
| Corporate | -61 | -34 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| Reclass adjustments | -331 | -15 | 0 | 0 | |
| Total | 2,405 | 2,845 | 3,355 | 2,976 | 2,721 |
| $ Mil | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind and Solar | 110 | 124 | 91 | 103 | 48 |
| Energy Marketing | 90 | 97 | 41 | 43 | 49 |
| Hydro | 75 | 76 | 79 | 44 | 49 |
| Australian Gas | 73 | 66 | 71 | 53 | 56 |
| North American Gas | 54 | 50 | |||
| Centralia | 41 | 12 | |||
| Equity accounted investments | -2 | ||||
| Corporate | -106 | -121 | -135 | -111 | -97 |
| Alberta Thermal | -434 | 31 | |||
| Canadian Coal | -19 | -88 | 166 | ||
| Canadian Gas | 44 | 80 | 253 | ||
| U.S. Coal | -12 | 14 | -46 | ||
| Total | -99 | 335 | 160 | 138 | 478 |
| $ Mil | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Generation | 8,983 | 9,007 | 9,323 | 9,133 | 6,500 |
| Energy Trading | 262 | 394 | 132 | ||
| Corporate | 206 | 359 | 438 | 481 | |
| COD | 148 | ||||
| Marketing | 293 | ||||
| Total | 9,451 | 9,760 | 9,893 | 9,762 | 6,792 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $13.99 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 4.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/31/2001 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -20.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $13.49 | $13.62 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 3.7% | 2.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 39.8% | 40.0% |
| Downside Capture | 63.91 | 121.94 |
| Upside Capture | 109.68 | 113.17 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 30.3% | 34.5% |
TAC Betas & Captures as of 6/30/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.79 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.87 | 1.15 | 0.95 |
| Up Beta | 2.67 | 1.65 | 0.93 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.79 |
| Down Beta | 0.88 | 0.30 | 0.04 | 0.44 | 1.08 | 1.20 |
| Up Capture | 6% | 107% | 77% | 106% | 154% | 78% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 22 | 34 | 63 | 128 | 379 |
| Down Capture | 31% | 55% | 110% | 103% | 120% | 99% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 16 | 24 | 57 | 117 | 356 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TAC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAC | 14.9% | 39.9% | 0.44 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 9.6% | 14.8% | 0.41 | 25.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 20.3% | 12.6% | 1.19 | 34.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.6% | 28.1% | 0.69 | 31.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 31.4% | 19.1% | 1.30 | 10.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 15.0% | 14.0% | 0.76 | 0.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -44.6% | 42.9% | -1.25 | 23.4% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TAC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAC | 9.2% | 35.1% | 0.32 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 10.0% | 17.3% | 0.43 | 37.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.9% | 17.1% | 0.58 | 35.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.3% | 18.4% | 0.76 | 22.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.9% | 19.5% | 0.35 | 16.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.9% | 18.9% | 0.05 | 28.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 14.9% | 53.4% | 0.46 | 13.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TAC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAC | 13.0% | 35.5% | 0.44 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 8.8% | 19.3% | 0.39 | 38.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 40.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.2% | 16.1% | 0.57 | 15.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.2% | 17.9% | 0.32 | 23.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.1% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 39.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.7% | 66.2% | 0.99 | 14.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/2/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/27/2026 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/23/2024 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/08/2022 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 6-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/27/2026 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/23/2024 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/08/2022 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/06/2022 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/24/2022 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/09/2021 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/10/2021 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/13/2021 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/03/2021 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/04/2020 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/31/2020 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/12/2020 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2019 | 03/04/2020 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/07/2019 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/09/2019 | 6-K |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Jul 22, 202613F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)
Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
Industry Resources
| Utilities Resources |
| Data.gov Energy Infrastructure |
| Data.gov Energy Resources |
| Utility Dive |
| Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders Resources |
| S&P Global Commodity Insights |
| Energy Risk |
| Power Finance & Risk |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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Core Cache Last Updated: 7/21/2026