TransAlta (TAC)
Market Price (2/27/2026): $13.27 | Market Cap: $3.9 BilSector: Utilities | Industry: Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders
TransAlta (TAC)
Market Price (2/27/2026): $13.27Market Cap: $3.9 BilSector: UtilitiesIndustry: Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -19% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 109% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 9.2% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 32x | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.6% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Wind Energy Development, Solar Energy Generation, and Battery Storage & Grid Modernization. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.1% | |
| Key risksTAC key risks include [1] execution challenges, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 9.2% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Wind Energy Development, Solar Energy Generation, and Battery Storage & Grid Modernization. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -19% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 109% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 32x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.6% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.1% |
| Key risksTAC key risks include [1] execution challenges, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Disappointing Q3 2025 Financial Results.
TransAlta reported its third-quarter 2025 earnings on November 6, 2025, which significantly missed analyst expectations. The company posted an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of -$0.01, falling short of the consensus estimate of $0.06. Quarterly revenue was also lower than anticipated, coming in at $441.57 million against an estimated $558.84 million. This substantial earnings and revenue miss at the beginning of the period likely triggered a negative market reaction.
2. Operational Changes Leading to Reduced Capacity.
On December 18, 2025, TransAlta announced its decision to mothball Sheerness Unit 1. This move indicates a reduction in operational power generation capacity, which can lead to concerns about future revenue streams and overall asset utilization, contributing to investor apprehension regarding the company's long-term profitability.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -26.4% change in TAC stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/26/2026 was primarily driven by a -25.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 2262026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 17.61 | 12.96 | -26.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,507 | 2,484 | -0.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.1 | 1.6 | -25.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 297 | 297 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -26.4% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 2/26/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TAC | -26.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.1% | 45.1% |
| Sector (XLU) | 5.9% | 33.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 8.3% change in TAC stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/26/2026 was primarily driven by a 15.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 2262026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 11.97 | 12.96 | 8.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,656 | 2,484 | -6.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.3 | 1.6 | 15.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 298 | 297 | 0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 8.3% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 2/26/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TAC | 8.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.4% | 39.7% |
| Sector (XLU) | 10.9% | 30.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 14.7% change in TAC stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/26/2026 was primarily driven by a 29.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312025 | 2262026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 11.30 | 12.96 | 14.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,791 | 2,484 | -11.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.2 | 1.6 | 29.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 296 | 297 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 14.7% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 2/26/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TAC | 14.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.5% | 50.9% |
| Sector (XLU) | 23.7% | 37.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 40.9% change in TAC stock from 1/31/2023 to 2/26/2026 was primarily driven by a 69.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312023 | 2262026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 9.20 | 12.96 | 40.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,732 | 2,484 | -9.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.9 | 1.6 | 69.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 271 | 297 | -8.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 40.9% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 2/26/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TAC | 40.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.9% | 38.1% |
| Sector (XLU) | 48.7% | 39.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TAC Return | 49% | -18% | -6% | 74% | -9% | 2% | 85% |
| Peers Return | 13% | -3% | 31% | 86% | 43% | 9% | 319% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 1% | 85% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TAC Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 58% | 67% | 50% | 100% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 56% | 53% | 60% | 60% | 62% | 70% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 100% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TAC Max Drawdown | 0% | -29% | -17% | -27% | -42% | -4% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -14% | -26% | -17% | -9% | -15% | -11% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: VST, NRG, CEG, NEE, AQN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/26/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TAC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -37.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 401 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -55.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 123.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 296 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -37.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 84 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -62.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 164.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1,480 days |
Compare to VST, NRG, CEG, NEE, AQN
In The Past
TransAlta's stock fell -37.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/19/2022. A -37.6% loss requires a 60.4% gain to breakeven.
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About TransAlta (TAC)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-2 brief analogies for TransAlta:
1. A leading electricity generator, similar to how NextEra Energy operates vast renewable energy projects and power plants, but with a significant footprint in Canada.
2. A foundational electricity producer for the grid, akin to how major refiners like Valero or Marathon Petroleum produce essential fuels, but focused on increasingly cleaner electricity.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Electricity Generation: TransAlta produces electricity using a diverse portfolio of hydro, wind, solar, natural gas, and battery storage assets.
- Wholesale Electricity Sales: The company sells its generated electricity to utilities, industrial customers, and through power markets across North America and Australia.
AI Analysis | Feedback
TransAlta (symbol: TAC) primarily sells electricity and related services to other companies (Business-to-Business or B2B model), rather than directly to individual consumers.
Due to the nature of the wholesale electricity market and commercial confidentiality, TransAlta does not publicly disclose a definitive list of specific "major customer companies" with their symbols that account for a dominant portion of its overall revenue. However, its major customer base can be categorized as follows:
- Wholesale Electricity Market Participants: A significant portion of TransAlta's power generation is sold into organized wholesale electricity markets across Canada (e.g., Alberta Electric System Operator - AESO) and the United States (e.g., ISO New England, California ISO, Mid-Columbia region). These markets consist of numerous buyers including other utilities, energy marketers, and large industrial consumers who procure electricity from the grid.
- Large Industrial & Commercial Offtakers: TransAlta directly contracts with large industrial facilities (such as mining operations, manufacturing plants, and chemical processing facilities) and commercial enterprises through long-term Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs). These customers seek stable and predictable power supply for their operations.
- Local Distribution Companies (LDCs) & Other Utilities: TransAlta sells electricity directly to other utility companies or local distribution companies who then distribute it to their end-use customers. These sales often occur through bilateral contracts or competitive procurement processes.
- Corporate Offtakers for Renewable Energy: A growing segment involves securing long-term PPAs with large corporations (often non-utility companies) that are committed to procuring renewable energy to meet their environmental, social, and governance (ESG) targets.
While a comprehensive list of major named customers is not readily available for its entire portfolio, TransAlta has publicly announced Power Purchase Agreements with specific companies for certain projects. Examples of such corporate offtakers include:
- Microsoft (MSFT): TransAlta Renewables (a former subsidiary, now fully integrated into TransAlta) signed a 15-year PPA with Microsoft for a portion of the output from its White Rock Wind Project in Oklahoma.
- Fortescue Metals Group (FMG.AX): TransAlta signed a 10-year PPA with Fortescue Metals Group for renewable electricity from the Northern Goldfields Solar Project in Australia, primarily to power Fortescue's Iron Bridge Mine.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Siemens Energy (ENR.DE)
AI Analysis | Feedback
John Kousinioris, President and Chief Executive Officer
John Kousinioris joined TransAlta in 2012, serving in various leadership roles including Chief Legal and Compliance Officer, Chief Growth Officer, and Chief Operating Officer, before being appointed President and CEO in 2021. From 2017 to 2021, he also served as President and a Director of TransAlta Renewables. Prior to his tenure at TransAlta, Kousinioris was a partner and co-head of the corporate commercial department at Bennett Jones LLP, where he specialized in securities law, mergers and acquisitions, and corporate governance.
Joel Hunter, Executive Vice President, Finance and Chief Financial Officer
Joel Hunter assumed the role of Executive Vice President, Finance and Chief Financial Officer at TransAlta effective July 1, 2024. He brings over 26 years of experience in the energy sector, encompassing finance, capital markets, and strategic planning. Before joining TransAlta, Hunter served as Executive Vice-President and CFO at TC Energy. He holds a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation, a Bachelor of Commerce (Accounting) from the University of Calgary, and a Bachelor of Arts (Economics) from the University of Regina.
Kerry O'Reilly Wilks, Executive Vice President, Growth and Energy Marketing
Kerry O'Reilly Wilks is the Executive Vice President, Growth and Energy Marketing at TransAlta. Her previous roles at TransAlta included Chief Legal & Compliance Officer and Executive Vice President, Commercial, Legal and External Affairs. Before TransAlta, she was the Head of Legal, North Atlantic & UK, for Vale S.A., a prominent mining company, where she also held positions as Head of Legal, Corporate & Marketing, Global Chief IT Counsel, and Head of Legal, Asia Pacific for Vale's affiliates. Earlier in her career, she was a partner with Davies, Ward, Phillips & Vineberg LLP, focusing on large securities offerings and M&A transactions. O'Reilly Wilks is also recognized as the founder of Malachy'S Soiree and The East Coast Disruptors.
Jane N. Fedoretz, Executive Vice President, People, Culture and Chief Administrative Officer
Jane N. Fedoretz serves as the Executive Vice President, People, Culture and Chief Administrative Officer at TransAlta. She has over two decades of legal experience in the energy industry and as a private practitioner. Prior to TransAlta, Fedoretz was Counsel in the Energy Group at Blake, Cassels & Graydon LLP (Blakes), where she provided legal support for energy project exploration, development, and construction for various companies. She also held the position of Vice President, General Counsel, Chief Compliance Officer, and Privacy Officer at CEDA International Corporation, a privately-held oil field and maintenance services company.
Mark Flickinger, Executive Vice President, Project Delivery and Construction
Mark Flickinger is the Executive Vice President, Project Delivery and Construction, bringing over 40 years of expertise in global project execution and construction to TransAlta. Before joining TransAlta, he was the Vice President of Construction at Pattern Energy Group from 2020 to 2024, and held similar roles at Clearway Energy Group (since 2018) and NRG Energy (since 2015). His career also includes serving as Sr. Director of EPC West Coast Renewables at M+W Energy Inc., and various project management and commercial operations positions at ACCIONA and RCG Group LLC. Earlier, Flickinger was President of Guinevere Enterprises and Principal/Owner at Classic Kitchen & Bath, specializing in construction and renovation, and a Project Manager for Walt Disney World Construction.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to TransAlta's business operations include market and economic fluctuations, regulatory changes and the complexities of energy transition, and elevated financial leverage.
- Market and Economic Risks: TransAlta's revenues and profitability are significantly exposed to fluctuations in electricity prices, commodity prices (such as natural gas and coal), and broader economic conditions. Lower electricity prices, for example, in Alberta or a downturn in the Canadian economy, could lead to reduced earnings.
- Regulatory Changes and Energy Transition Risks: As a company in the utilities sector, TransAlta faces risks from changes in regulatory policies, especially those pertaining to clean energy initiatives and carbon emissions. The company's strategic shift towards clean energy involves integrating new renewable projects, which carries inherent risks such as construction delays and cost overruns.
- Financial Leverage and Debt Levels: TransAlta exhibits a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.86, indicating substantial financial leverage. Additionally, its interest coverage ratio is notably low at 0.77, which raises concerns about the company's ability to consistently meet its interest obligations and suggests potential liquidity challenges.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The accelerating decline in the cost of utility-scale and distributed renewable energy sources (such as solar and wind) combined with increasingly affordable battery storage solutions. This trend could lead to significant market disruption by enabling greater grid defection, reducing demand for conventional baseload and dispatchable power, and driving down wholesale electricity prices. This development intensifies competition in the power generation market and could potentially render some existing or planned assets less economically viable sooner than anticipated, even for companies transitioning to renewables like TransAlta.
AI Analysis | Feedback
TransAlta (symbol: TAC) operates in the electricity power generation and wholesale marketing sectors, with a diverse portfolio including hydroelectric, wind, solar, natural gas-fired generation, and battery storage. The company's operations span Canada, the United States, and Australia. The addressable markets for their main products and services in these regions are as follows:
Canada
- Renewable Energy (Hydro, Wind, Solar): The installed capacity in the Canadian renewable energy market is projected to reach 115.09 gigawatts (GW) in 2025 and expand to 149.12 GW by 2030, demonstrating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.32% during this period. Hydroelectricity constituted 76% of Canada's renewable energy market share in 2024.
- Natural Gas Power Generation: While a precise total market size in GW for all of Canada is not readily available, TransAlta holds a significant position, controlling 46% of the electricity generation market in Alberta after its acquisition of Heartland Generation.
- Energy Storage: Canada's current installed energy storage capacity is below 1 GW, with projections indicating a substantial increase to over 12 GW by 2030. The Canadian energy storage market is valued at approximately USD 1.5 billion in 2024 and is forecast to grow to USD 5 billion by 2035, at a CAGR of 11.57% from 2025 to 2035.
United States
- Renewable Energy (Solar, Wind, Hydro): The installed capacity in the U.S. renewable energy market is expected to grow from 507.67 GW in 2025 to 737.37 GW by 2030, with a CAGR of 7.75%. Another estimate projects growth from 481.5 GW in 2025 to 893.2 GW in 2032, at a CAGR of 12.7%.
- Solar Power: The U.S. solar energy market's installed capacity is anticipated to increase from 203.85 GW in 2025 to 412 GW by 2030, with a CAGR of 15.11%. Utility-scale solar installations surpassed 32 GW in 2024.
- Wind Power: The installed capacity of the U.S. wind energy market is estimated at 159.65 GW in 2025, with a projected rise to 208.16 GW by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of 5.45%.
- Natural Gas Power Generation: Natural gas constitutes the largest source of electricity generation in the United States, accounting for 43% in 2023. The installed capacity of gas-fired power plants in the U.S. was 488.8 GW in 2023.
- Energy Storage: Utility-scale battery storage capacity in the U.S. exceeded 26 GW in 2024, with total installed capacity reaching approximately 29 GW. The U.S. energy storage market is expected to grow from 49.52 GW in 2025 to 131.75 GW by 2030, at a CAGR of 21.62%. Utility-scale energy storage is projected to nearly double, reaching almost 65 GW by the end of 2026.
Australia
- Renewable Energy (Solar, Wind, Hydro): The installed base of the Australian renewable energy market is expected to grow from 51.41 GW in 2024 to 89.03 GW by 2029, with a CAGR of 11.61%. Australia added 7.5 GW of renewable capacity in 2024.
- Solar Power: Australia's solar power market, in terms of installed capacity, is anticipated to grow from 43.5 GW in 2025 to 85.5 GW by 2030, at a CAGR of 14.47%. Utility-scale photovoltaic capacity is projected to surpass 50 GW by 2030, up from approximately 10 GW of current operational capacity.
- Wind Power: The Australian wind energy market size was valued at USD 6.3 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 21.4 billion by 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of 16.5% from 2026 to 2032. Installed wind turbine capacity in Australia reached 9.5 GW in 2020.
- Natural Gas Power Generation: Australia has over 13 GW of gas-fired generating capacity, with more than 9 GW within the National Electricity Market (NEM) as of 2020. The draft 2024 Integrated System Plan anticipates peaking gas power plant capacity in Australia to increase to 16.2 GW.
- Energy Storage: The Australian energy storage market was valued at 4.0 GW in 2024 and is projected to reach 17.8 GW by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 18.0%. Australia is the third-largest market globally for large-scale battery energy storage, with 14 GW/37 GWh of projects at or nearing financial close.
AI Analysis | Feedback
TransAlta (TAC) is poised for future revenue growth over the next two to three years, driven by several strategic initiatives focused on expanding its clean energy portfolio, optimizing existing assets, and capitalizing on new market demands. Here are the expected drivers of future revenue growth for TransAlta:- Expansion of Renewable Energy Capacity: TransAlta is committed to its "Clean Electricity Growth Plan," aiming to add significant new capacity in wind, solar, and battery storage projects. The company plans to invest approximately $3.5 billion to develop, construct, or acquire up to 1.75 gigawatts (GW) of new clean electricity generating and storage capacity by the end of 2028. This expansion across Canada, the United States, and Australia is a core component of its strategy to deliver customer-centered power solutions.
- Strategic Acquisitions and Partnerships: Acquisitions play a crucial role in TransAlta's growth. The company is actively progressing with the acquisition of Heartland Generation, which is expected to add complementary assets to its portfolio. Furthermore, a strategic investment in Nova Clean Energy, LLC, in 2025 provides TransAlta with exclusive access to a multi-technology pipeline of over 4 GW of high-quality clean energy projects in the western United States.
- Redevelopment and Optimization of Existing Sites: TransAlta is focusing on unlocking value from its existing assets through redevelopment and optimization initiatives. This includes pursuing opportunities for the Centralia redevelopment and advancing significant contracting and development opportunities at legacy thermal sites in Washington State and Alberta. These efforts aim to convert or upgrade facilities for more efficient and profitable operations.
- Growth in Data Center Demand: The increasing energy demands of data centers present a new market opportunity for TransAlta. The company is actively advancing an "Alberta data centre strategy" and exploring "data centre opportunities" as a potential new demand driver for the province's power market.
- Securing Long-term Contracted Revenues: While not solely a growth driver, TransAlta's focus on securing long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) and maintaining a strong hedge position is critical for stable and predictable revenue streams. The company emphasizes expanding further into contracted renewables, ensuring consistent cash flows and optimizing margins in volatile markets. This strategy provides a foundation for sustainable revenue growth by mitigating market price fluctuations.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- TransAlta renewed its Normal Course Issuer Bid (NCIB) in May 2025, authorizing the repurchase of up to 14,000,000 common shares, representing approximately 4.7% of its outstanding shares, between May 31, 2025, and May 30, 2026.
- Under its prior NCIB, TransAlta repurchased and canceled 7,963,000 common shares at an average price of $12.00 per share.
- The company returned $87 million to shareholders in 2023 through share repurchases and allocated up to $100 million for share repurchases in February 2025.
Inbound Investments
- In October 2020, Brookfield Renewable Partners completed a $400 million investment in TransAlta as the second tranche of a total $750 million strategic investment, through the purchase of redeemable, retractable first preferred shares.
Outbound Investments
- TransAlta acquired a 30% equity interest in EMG International LLC in December 2020, a wastewater treatment company, an investment expected to result in US$2 to $3 million of annual EBITDA. [cite: 11 in first step]
- In August 2021, TransAlta acquired a 122 MW portfolio of 20 solar sites in North Carolina for US$99 million, in addition to assuming existing tax equity obligations. [cite: 15 in first step]
- In the first quarter of 2025, the company made a strategic investment in Nova Clean Energy, LLC, including a US$75 million term loan and a US$100 million revolving facility, with US$74 million drawn at closing. [cite: 18 in first step]
- TransAlta completed the acquisition of Heartland Generation in Q4 2023 for a total value of C$658 million, which included C$390 million in cash.
Capital Expenditures
- TransAlta has a targeted investment of $3.5 billion by the end of 2028 to deliver up to 1.75 GW of incremental renewables capacity.
- Sustaining capital expenditures were $142 million in 2024 and $174 million in 2023.
- The company's Clean Energy Investment Plan, announced in 2020, outlined $2 billion for converting Alberta coal assets to natural gas and developing wind projects, with approximately $800 million of renewable energy projects already under construction at that time. [cite: 9 in first step]
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Would You Still Hold TransAlta Stock If It Fell Another 30%? | 10/17/2025 | |
| Fundamental Metrics: ... | 06/19/2024 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12122025 | CTRI | Centuri | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.4% | 15.4% | -5.5% |
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.6% | 6.6% | -4.0% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 25.2% | 25.2% | -0.8% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 29.7% | 29.7% | -3.2% |
Research & Analysis
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Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 134.09 |
| Mkt Cap | 47.4 |
| Rev LTM | 21,362 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,024 |
| FCF LTM | 1,026 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 492 |
| CFO LTM | 2,952 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,171 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 21.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 25.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 47.4 |
| P/S | 2.8 |
| P/EBIT | 23.0 |
| P/E | 34.1 |
| P/CFO | 15.1 |
| Total Yield | 2.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.9% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 3.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 12.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 27.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 194.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 1.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 7.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 14.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 110.6% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gas | 1,514 | 1,209 | 1,109 | 787 | |
| Energy Transition | 751 | 714 | 709 | 704 | |
| Hydro | 533 | 606 | 383 | 152 | 156 |
| Wind and Solar | 357 | 303 | 323 | 332 | 312 |
| Energy Marketing | 220 | 160 | 211 | 122 | 129 |
| Corporate | 1 | -2 | 4 | 7 | -6 |
| Reclass adjustments | 0 | 0 | |||
| Equity accounted investments | -21 | -14 | -18 | -3 | |
| Alberta Thermal | 816 | ||||
| Australian Gas | 160 | ||||
| Centralia | 571 | ||||
| North American Gas | 209 | ||||
| Total | 3,355 | 2,976 | 2,721 | 2,101 | 2,347 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $12.96 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 3.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/31/2001 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -26.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $12.90 | $12.84 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | 0.5% | 1.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 39.8% | 42.3% |
| Downside Capture | 185.23 | 135.47 |
| Upside Capture | 118.92 | 134.99 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 32.4% | 52.0% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.40 | 0.45 | 1.69 | 1.46 | 1.10 | 0.92 |
| Up Beta | -5.22 | -3.74 | -0.40 | 0.34 | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| Down Beta | -1.75 | 0.40 | 2.30 | 1.63 | 1.37 | 1.22 |
| Up Capture | 182% | 61% | 85% | 168% | 144% | 64% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 34 | 71 | 142 | 430 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 16 | 25 | 61 | 130 | 371 |
| Down Capture | 215% | 203% | 258% | 174% | 118% | 98% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 9 | 19 | 27 | 54 | 109 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 62 | 119 | 366 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TAC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAC | 24.1% | 42.2% | 0.62 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 21.3% | 15.9% | 1.03 | 40.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 17.1% | 19.4% | 0.69 | 51.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 79.3% | 25.7% | 2.25 | 25.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.9% | 16.8% | 0.45 | 30.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.6% | 16.6% | 0.21 | 28.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -23.4% | 45.1% | -0.46 | 29.8% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TAC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAC | 7.8% | 34.0% | 0.29 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 12.2% | 17.2% | 0.55 | 37.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.6% | 17.0% | 0.63 | 36.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 23.6% | 17.2% | 1.12 | 21.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.8% | 19.0% | 0.45 | 18.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.3% | 18.8% | 0.19 | 31.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.0% | 57.0% | 0.29 | 14.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TAC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAC | 14.4% | 35.4% | 0.48 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 10.7% | 19.2% | 0.49 | 38.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.5% | 17.9% | 0.74 | 41.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 15.1% | 15.6% | 0.81 | 14.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.5% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 26.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.6% | 20.7% | 0.28 | 39.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.3% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 14.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/23/2024 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 40-F |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/08/2022 | 6-K |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 6-K |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/06/2022 | 6-K |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/24/2022 | 40-F |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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