TransAlta (TAC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $14.33 | Market Cap: $4.3 BilSector: Utilities | Industry: Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders
TransAlta (TAC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $14.33Market Cap: $4.3 BilSector: UtilitiesIndustry: Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -13% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 104% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 8.7% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 33x | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.6% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Wind Energy Development, Solar Energy Generation, and Battery Storage & Grid Modernization. | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 56% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.9% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 8.7% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Wind Energy Development, Solar Energy Generation, and Battery Storage & Grid Modernization. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -13% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 104% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 33x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.6% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 56% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.9% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TAC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points that likely contributed to TransAlta (TAC) stock movement during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results.
TransAlta reported solid third-quarter 2025 financial results on November 6, 2025, demonstrating strong operations despite weaker market pricing. The company achieved an Adjusted EBITDA of $238 million and Free Cash Flow of $105 million ($0.35 per share) for the quarter ended September 30, 2025.
2. Acquisition of Contracted Ontario Gas Portfolio.
On November 17, 2025, TransAlta announced the acquisition of a 310 MW contracted Ontario gas portfolio for $95 million. This acquisition is anticipated to be immediately accretive to free cash flow and cash yield, with approximately 68% of the gross margin contracted until 2031, signaling future earnings stability and growth.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TAC Return | 8% | 49% | -18% | -6% | 74% | 1% | 118% |
| Peers Return | 6% | 15% | -4% | 7% | 67% | 37% | 183% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TAC Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 50% | 58% | 67% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 38% | 37% | 27% | 50% | 52% | 70% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TAC Max Drawdown | -47% | 0% | -29% | -17% | -27% | -42% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -29% | -3% | -15% | -15% | -13% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NRG, TLN, AES, TAC, DGXX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TAC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -37.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 401 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -55.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 123.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 296 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -37.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 84 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -62.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 164.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1480 days |
Compare to NRG, TLN, AES, TAC, DGXX
In The Past
TransAlta's stock fell -37.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/19/2022. A -37.6% loss requires a 60.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Is TransAlta Stock Built to Withstand More Downside? | Return | |
| Fundamental Metrics: ... |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TAC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.9% | -0.9% | -0.9% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.4% | 7.4% | -3.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.9% | -0.9% | -0.9% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.4% | 7.4% | -3.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for TransAlta
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 14.00 |
| Mkt Cap | 9.8 |
| Rev LTM | 2,484 |
| Op Inc LTM | 290 |
| FCF LTM | 226 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 52 |
| CFO LTM | 630 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 917 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -1.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 1.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -15.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 9.8 |
| P/S | 1.6 |
| P/EBIT | 13.0 |
| P/E | 8.9 |
| P/CFO | 6.4 |
| Total Yield | 1.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -5.5% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -11.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 13.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 39.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 47.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 54.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -11.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 7.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 24.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 32.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -12.9% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gas | 1,514 | 1,209 | 1,109 | 787 | |
| Energy Transition | 751 | 714 | 709 | 704 | |
| Hydro | 533 | 606 | 383 | 152 | 156 |
| Wind and Solar | 357 | 303 | 323 | 332 | 312 |
| Energy Marketing | 220 | 160 | 211 | 122 | 129 |
| Corporate | 1 | -2 | 4 | 7 | -6 |
| Reclass adjustments | 0 | 0 | |||
| Equity accounted investments | -21 | -14 | -18 | -3 | |
| Alberta Thermal | 816 | ||||
| Australian Gas | 160 | ||||
| Centralia | 571 | ||||
| North American Gas | 209 | ||||
| Total | 3,355 | 2,976 | 2,721 | 2,101 | 2,347 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 6-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8012025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2202025 | 40-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5032024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 40-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 40-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 40-F 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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