Tearsheet

TransAlta (TAC)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $14.33 | Market Cap: $4.3 Bil
Sector: Utilities | Industry: Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders

TransAlta (TAC)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $14.33
Market Cap: $4.3 Bil
Sector: Utilities
Industry: Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%
Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -13%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 104%
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 8.7%
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 33x
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 47%
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.6%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Wind Energy Development, Solar Energy Generation, and Battery Storage & Grid Modernization.
  Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 56%
4   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.9%
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 8.7%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 47%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Wind Energy Development, Solar Energy Generation, and Battery Storage & Grid Modernization.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -13%
5 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 104%
6 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 33x
7 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.6%
8 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 56%
9 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.9%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

TAC Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points that likely contributed to TransAlta (TAC) stock movement during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: 1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results.

TransAlta reported solid third-quarter 2025 financial results on November 6, 2025, demonstrating strong operations despite weaker market pricing. The company achieved an Adjusted EBITDA of $238 million and Free Cash Flow of $105 million ($0.35 per share) for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. 2. Acquisition of Contracted Ontario Gas Portfolio.

On November 17, 2025, TransAlta announced the acquisition of a 310 MW contracted Ontario gas portfolio for $95 million. This acquisition is anticipated to be immediately accretive to free cash flow and cash yield, with approximately 68% of the gross margin contracted until 2031, signaling future earnings stability and growth.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
TAC Return8%49%-18%-6%74%1%118%
Peers Return6%15%-4%7%67%37%183%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
TAC Win Rate67%67%50%58%67%60% 
Peers Win Rate38%37%27%50%52%70% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
TAC Max Drawdown-47%0%-29%-17%-27%-42% 
Peers Max Drawdown-29%-3%-15%-15%-13%-18% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NRG, TLN, AES, TAC, DGXX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventTACS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-37.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven60.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven401 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-55.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven123.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven296 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-37.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven59.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven84 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-62.2%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven164.7%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1480 days

Compare to NRG, TLN, AES, TAC, DGXX


In The Past

TransAlta's stock fell -37.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/19/2022. A -37.6% loss requires a 60.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About TransAlta (TAC)

Better Bets than TransAlta (TAC)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to TAC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PEG_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025PEGPublic Service EnterpriseMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.9%-0.9%-0.9%
PCG_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025PCGPG&EDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
1.9%1.9%0.0%
AES_9052025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09052025AESAESDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.4%7.4%-3.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PEG_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025PEGPublic Service EnterpriseMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.9%-0.9%-0.9%
PCG_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025PCGPG&EDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
1.9%1.9%0.0%
AES_9052025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09052025AESAESDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.4%7.4%-3.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for TransAlta

Peers to compare with:

Financials

TACNRGTLNAESDGXXMedian
NameTransAltaNRG Ener.Talen En.AES Digi Pow. 
Mkt Price14.00166.77365.4613.713.4014.00
Mkt Cap4.232.216.79.80.19.8
Rev LTM2,48429,7792,34312,094322,484
Op Inc LTM1342,5982901,787-21290
FCF LTM3531,699226-2,215-34226
FCF 3Y Avg404130--3,893-2652
CFO LTM6302,7424343,906-32630
CFO 3Y Avg1,009826-3,223-22917

Growth & Margins

TACNRGTLNAESDGXXMedian
NameTransAltaNRG Ener.Talen En.AES Digi Pow. 
Rev Chg LTM-11.0%5.9%5.1%-1.5%-16.0%-1.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-0.6%-0.9%-25.0%-0.6%15.5%-0.6%
Rev Chg Q-3.6%5.7%38.7%1.9%-12.1%1.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.9%1.4%10.1%0.5%-3.4%0.5%
Op Mgn LTM5.4%8.7%12.4%14.8%-63.8%8.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg18.1%1.8%10.7%16.8%-65.7%10.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-2.9%4.8%6.8%0.1%-0.6%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM25.4%9.2%18.5%32.3%-97.8%18.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg33.1%2.9%-26.1%-74.9%14.5%
FCF/Rev LTM14.2%5.7%9.6%-18.3%-104.5%5.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg13.9%0.5%--31.4%-92.1%-15.4%

Valuation

TACNRGTLNAESDGXXMedian
NameTransAltaNRG Ener.Talen En.AES Digi Pow. 
Mkt Cap4.232.216.79.80.19.8
P/S1.61.08.30.83.21.6
P/EBIT33.313.044.04.9-4.713.0
P/E-28.821.786.08.9-5.48.9
P/CFO6.411.444.82.4-3.36.4
Total Yield-1.7%4.6%1.2%16.6%-18.4%1.2%
Dividend Yield1.8%0.0%0.0%5.3%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg13.8%-5.5%--33.5%--5.5%
D/E1.10.40.23.30.00.4
Net D/E1.00.40.13.1-0.00.4

Returns

TACNRGTLNAESDGXXMedian
NameTransAltaNRG Ener.Talen En.AES Digi Pow. 
1M Rtn-20.3%-4.4%-11.6%0.7%-46.0%-11.6%
3M Rtn16.7%13.8%-3.3%4.9%50.9%13.8%
6M Rtn39.2%6.8%40.6%38.4%124.8%39.2%
12M Rtn23.4%70.6%71.9%11.5%-47.0%
3Y Rtn54.5%337.1%--45.4%-54.5%
1M Excs Rtn-20.3%-4.4%-11.6%0.7%-46.0%-11.6%
3M Excs Rtn10.5%7.7%-9.3%3.0%48.3%7.7%
6M Excs Rtn24.4%-7.9%25.8%23.7%110.1%24.4%
12M Excs Rtn12.8%52.8%56.9%-2.0%-32.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-12.9%262.4%--117.0%--12.9%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Gas1,5141,2091,109787 
Energy Transition751714709704 
Hydro533606383152156
Wind and Solar357303323332312
Energy Marketing220160211122129
Corporate1-247-6
Reclass adjustments00   
Equity accounted investments-21-14-18-3 
Alberta Thermal    816
Australian Gas    160
Centralia    571
North American Gas    209
Total3,3552,9762,7212,1012,347


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,946,101
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202526.8%
Average Daily Volume2,901,429
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.36
Basic Shares Quantity297,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
9302025110620256-K 9/30/2025
630202580120256-K 6/30/2025
331202550720256-K 3/31/2025
12312024220202540-F 12/31/2024
9302024110520246-K 9/30/2024
630202480120246-K 6/30/2024
331202450320246-K 3/31/2024
12312023223202440-F 12/31/2023
9302023110720236-K 9/30/2023
630202380420236-K 6/30/2023
331202350520236-K 3/31/2023
12312022223202340-F 12/31/2022
9302022110820226-K 9/30/2022
630202280520226-K 6/30/2022
331202250620226-K 3/31/2022
12312021224202240-F 12/31/2021