Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, CFO LTM is 4.1 Bil
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 25x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 56x
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Show more.
Key risks
VST key risks include [1] a significant debt burden that constrains financial flexibility and [2] operational challenges across its large and complex generation portfolio, Show more.
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, CFO LTM is 4.1 Bil
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Show more.
2 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 25x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 56x
3 Key risks
VST key risks include [1] a significant debt burden that constrains financial flexibility and [2] operational challenges across its large and complex generation portfolio, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

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Vistra (VST) stock has lost about 15% since 11/30/2025 because of the following key factors:

1. Vistra's Q4 2025 earnings significantly missed analyst expectations, raising investor concerns. The company reported an EPS of $0.54 for Q4 2025, missing the estimated $2.38 by 77.31%. Additionally, sales for the quarter totaled $4.58 billion, falling short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of approximately $5.34 billion by 14.1%.

2. The stock experienced profit-taking and valuation adjustments after a substantial run-up in late 2025. Vistra reached a 52-week high of $219.82 in late 2025, driven by market enthusiasm. However, a "cooling off" period and stretched valuations likely contributed to the subsequent decline, with the stock sliding about 15.5% from its late-2025 high of $219.82 to around $151-$152 by late March 2026.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -12.8% change in VST stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -20.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)113020253292026Change
Stock Price ($)178.37155.48-12.8%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)17,19117,7383.2%
Net Income Margin (%)6.7%5.3%-20.6%
P/E Multiple52.455.86.3%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)3393390.1%
Cumulative Contribution-12.8%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

11/30/2025 to 3/29/2026
ReturnCorrelation
VST-12.8% 
Market (SPY)-5.3%42.9%
Sector (XLU)1.4%65.1%

Fundamental Drivers

The -17.5% change in VST stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -58.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)83120253292026Change
Stock Price ($)188.39155.48-17.5%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)18,50817,738-4.2%
Net Income Margin (%)12.9%5.3%-58.8%
P/E Multiple26.855.8108.3%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)3393390.2%
Cumulative Contribution-17.5%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

8/31/2025 to 3/29/2026
ReturnCorrelation
VST-17.5% 
Market (SPY)0.6%43.2%
Sector (XLU)9.7%60.6%

Fundamental Drivers

The 17.1% change in VST stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 228.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)22820253292026Change
Stock Price ($)132.75155.4817.1%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)17,22417,7383.0%
Net Income Margin (%)15.4%5.3%-65.5%
P/E Multiple17.055.8228.3%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)3403390.5%
Cumulative Contribution17.1%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

2/28/2025 to 3/29/2026
ReturnCorrelation
VST17.1% 
Market (SPY)9.8%59.7%
Sector (XLU)18.4%51.7%

Fundamental Drivers

The 639.4% change in VST stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 349.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)22820233292026Change
Stock Price ($)21.03155.48639.4%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)13,17317,73834.7%
P/S Multiple0.73.0349.3%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)41433922.2%
Cumulative Contribution639.4%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

2/28/2023 to 3/29/2026
ReturnCorrelation
VST639.4% 
Market (SPY)69.4%47.3%
Sector (XLU)53.8%41.7%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
VST Return20%5%71%262%18%-5%763%
Peers Return19%8%16%46%35%2%205%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%-5%72%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
VST Win Rate58%58%67%75%50%33% 
Peers Win Rate60%58%58%60%63%53% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%33% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
VST Max Drawdown-18%-9%-8%-1%-29%-12% 
Peers Max Drawdown-8%-19%-17%-5%-9%-9% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%-5% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CEG, NRG, NEE, SO, DUK. See VST Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/27/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventVSTS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-33.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven49.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven324 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-46.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven86.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven343 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-21.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven27.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven99 days120 days

Compare to CEG, NRG, NEE, SO, DUK

In The Past

Vistra's stock fell -33.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/24/2021. A -33.2% loss requires a 49.7% gain to breakeven.

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About Vistra (VST)

Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company. The company operates through six segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, Sunset, and Asset Closure. It retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across 20 states in the United States and the District of Columbia. The company is also involved in the electricity generation, wholesale energy purchases and sales, commodity risk management, fuel production, and fuel logistics management activities. It serves approximately 4.3 million customers with a generation capacity of approximately 38,700 megawatts with a portfolio of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities. The company was formerly known as Vistra Energy Corp. and changed its name to Vistra Corp. in July 2020. Vistra Corp. was founded in 1882 and is based in Irving, Texas.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Vistra:

  • The ExxonMobil (XOM) of electricity.
  • The AT&T (T) of electricity.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Retail Electricity: Vistra sells electricity directly to residential, commercial, and industrial customers.
  • Retail Natural Gas: Vistra sells natural gas directly to residential, commercial, and industrial customers.
  • Electricity Generation: Vistra produces electricity from a diverse portfolio of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery storage facilities.
  • Wholesale Energy Trading: Vistra engages in the purchase and sale of energy commodities in wholesale markets.
  • Energy Commodity Risk Management: Vistra provides services to manage financial risks associated with energy price volatility.
  • Fuel Production & Logistics: Vistra is involved in the production of fuel and the management of its supply chain.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Vistra (VST) sells electricity and natural gas primarily to a diverse base of customers, including individuals and businesses. Based on the company description, it serves the following categories of customers:

  • Residential Customers: Individuals and households who consume electricity and natural gas for their homes.
  • Commercial Customers: Businesses and organizations, ranging from small enterprises to large corporations, that use electricity and natural gas for their operations.
  • Industrial Customers: Large-scale industrial facilities and manufacturing plants that require substantial amounts of electricity and natural gas for production processes.

AI Analysis | Feedback

null

AI Analysis | Feedback

Jim Burke, President and Chief Executive Officer

Jim Burke has been with Vistra and its predecessor companies since 2004, serving in various leadership positions, including president and chief financial officer from December 2020 to July 2022, and chief operating officer from 2016 until December 2020. He previously served as chairman and CEO of TXU Energy, a subsidiary of Vistra and its predecessor company, from August 2005 to October 2016. Before joining TXU Energy, Burke was president and chief operating officer of Gexa Energy, a Houston-based retailer that was subsequently acquired by FPL in 2005. Prior to Gexa Energy, he held roles as vice president of residential marketing and senior vice president of consumer operations with Reliant Energy. Burke also worked at The Coca-Cola Company for six years and was a management consultant for Deloitte & Touche Consulting.

Kris Moldovan, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Kris Moldovan has been with Vistra and its predecessor companies since 2006. He previously served as senior vice president and treasurer from 2017 to 2022, and as assistant treasurer from 2010 to 2017. Moldovan originally joined the company as senior counsel, focusing on finance and mergers and acquisitions. Before joining Vistra, he was an attorney for Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher, LLP and Wildman, Harrold, Allen & Dixon, where he gained extensive experience in M&A, finance, and general corporate advisory.

Stacey Doré, Chief Strategy & Sustainability Officer, Executive Vice President of Public Affairs

Stacey Doré originally joined Vistra's predecessor companies in 2008 as part of the legal team, holding leadership roles including executive vice president, general counsel, and chief restructuring officer. Prior to rejoining Vistra, she most recently served as president and chief executive officer of Hunt Utility Services and Sharyland Utilities from 2019-2021. She also served as senior vice president and general counsel for publicly traded InfraREIT, Inc. from 2016-2019. Doré began her career as an attorney at Vinson & Elkins, LLP in 1997.

Scott A. Hudson, Executive Vice President and President of Vistra Retail

Scott A. Hudson serves as the head of Vistra's retail business and is the president of TXU Energy. He joined TXU Energy in 2011, serving as the company's chief operating officer. Previously, Hudson held various leadership positions at LexisNexis and MBNA.

Carrie Kirby, Executive Vice President and Chief Administrative Officer

Carrie Kirby oversees the functions of human resources, community affairs, supply chain, corporate security, and facilities management at Vistra.

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Key Risks to Vistra (VST)

  1. Regulatory and Policy Changes: As an integrated retail electricity and power generation company, Vistra is highly susceptible to regulatory shifts and government policies, particularly those related to environmental protection, carbon emissions, and the structure of energy market deals. Changes in these regulations, especially concerning how power is priced or how "behind-the-meter" data center deals are structured in key operating states like Texas and Pennsylvania, could significantly impact Vistra's operations, compliance costs, strategic direction, and profitability.
  2. Operational Risks in Nuclear Facilities: Vistra operates nuclear generation facilities, which inherently carry significant operational risks. Any unscheduled outages at major nuclear plants, such as Comanche Peak, could lead to severe impacts on the company's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and cash flow.
  3. Commodity Price Volatility and Debt Levels: Vistra is exposed to the volatility of fuel prices, particularly natural gas, which can impact its operating margins and overall profitability. Furthermore, the company carries a relatively high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating significant leverage. This high debt level increases Vistra's sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations and could affect its ability to raise additional capital, limiting its capacity to react to economic or industry changes.

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The accelerating global and national shift towards decarbonization and renewable energy sources (solar, wind) coupled with advanced battery storage technology poses a clear emerging threat. This transition is rapidly making traditional fossil fuel-based generation assets (particularly coal, and increasingly natural gas) economically uncompetitive and potentially obsolete well before their planned operational lifespan. Vistra's significant portfolio of coal, natural gas, and nuclear power plants faces the risk of becoming stranded assets, leading to significant write-downs, reduced profitability, and increased operational costs as they compete with ever-cheaper and environmentally preferred alternatives. This fundamental shift challenges the economic viability of a large portion of Vistra's existing generation capacity.

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Addressable Markets for Vistra (VST)

  • Retail Electricity: The addressable market for retail electricity in the United States was approximately $424.3 billion in 2021.
  • Natural Gas Distribution: The U.S. natural gas distribution market was valued at approximately $170.0 billion in 2024.
  • Electricity Generation: The revenue for the U.S. power generation industry totaled approximately $129.2 billion in 2022. Net electricity generation from utility-scale generators in the United States was about 4,178 billion kilowatthours (4.18 trillion kWh) in 2023.
  • Energy Trading and Risk Management (ETRM): The U.S. Energy Trading and Risk Management market was valued at an estimated $10.8 billion in 2025.
  • Fuel Production and Fuel Logistics Management: Null

AI Analysis | Feedback

Vistra (VST) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives and market trends:

  • Strategic Acquisitions: Vistra's inorganic growth strategy, including the acquisition of Energy Harbor in 2024 and Cogentrix's natural gas plants, significantly bolsters its generation capacity and nuclear footprint. These acquisitions are expected to increase the company's asset base and contribute to higher Adjusted EBITDA.
  • Rising Power Demand from Data Centers and AI: The increasing demand for electricity from power-intensive sectors like cloud infrastructure, high-performance computing, and artificial intelligence is a significant driver for Vistra. The company has secured multi-decade power purchase agreements with major technology companies like AWS and Meta to meet this accelerating load growth.
  • Expansion of Zero-Carbon Generation and Energy Storage: Vistra is actively expanding its nuclear, solar, and battery energy storage facilities. This includes repurposing retired coal plants for solar and energy storage, aligning with its goal of achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. This expansion also makes the company eligible for government subsidies and nuclear production tax credits (PTCs), which have already contributed to increased revenues.
  • Growth in Retail Customer Base and Strong Performance: The company anticipates continued strong performance in its retail segment, driven by growth in its customer count and improved margins. Vistra currently serves approximately 5 million customers across 20 states, indicating a solid foundation for ongoing retail revenue growth.

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Share Repurchases

  • Vistra executed approximately $4.9 billion in share repurchases between November 2021 and February 24, 2025, resulting in a reduction of approximately 30% in outstanding shares from November 2021 levels.
  • As of May 2, 2025, Vistra had repurchased shares totaling $5.2 billion since November 2021, with approximately $1.5 billion of share repurchase authorization remaining, which is expected to be completed by year-end 2026.
  • Vistra's board authorized an additional $1 billion for share repurchases in March 2023, increasing the total authorization to approximately $1.8 billion, expected to be completed by year-end 2024. As of October 31, 2025, $2.2 billion remained under current authorization, expected to be fully utilized by the end of 2027.

Share Issuance

  • In October 2021, Vistra announced a private offering of $1 billion of 8% Series A Fixed-Rate Reset Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Stock, with the net proceeds intended for common stock repurchases.
  • Vistra's shares outstanding have consistently decreased over recent years, from 0.48 billion at the end of 2021 to 0.353 billion in 2024 and 0.338 billion at the end of 2025, primarily due to share repurchases.

Outbound Investments

  • Vistra completed the acquisition of Energy Harbor Corp. on March 1, 2024, adding approximately 4,000 megawatts of 24/7 nuclear generation and about 1 million additional retail customers.
  • On October 22, 2025, Vistra completed the acquisition of seven modern natural gas generation facilities from Lotus Infrastructure Partners, totaling approximately 2,600 MW of capacity, for a base purchase price of $1.9 billion.
  • In January 2026, Vistra announced the acquisition of Cogentrix Energy, which includes 10 natural gas plants with approximately 5,500 MW capacity.

Capital Expenditures

  • Vistra is strategically committing significant capital expenditures to enhance its renewable energy and energy storage portfolio.
  • The company aims to invest $2.27 billion in 2025, an increase from $1.85 billion in 2024 and $1.61 billion in 2023.
  • The primary focus of these capital expenditures is the development of solar, battery storage, and modernized gas-fired facilities, supporting Vistra's clean energy transition.

Better Bets vs. Vistra (VST)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select ideas related to VST.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CTRI_12122025_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE_V212122025CTRICenturiInsiderInsider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider Buying
Companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
16.6%16.6%-5.5%
PEG_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025PEGPublic Service EnterpriseMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
6.8%6.8%-4.0%
PCG_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025PCGPG&EDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
27.5%27.5%-0.8%
AES_9052025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09052025AESAESDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
36.9%36.9%-3.2%
VST_5312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%05312025VSTVistraQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
11.7%8.7%-10.9%
VST_6302022_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE_V206302022VSTVistraInsiderInsider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider Buying
Companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
7.0%18.5%-7.4%

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

VSTCEGNRGNEESODUKMedian
NameVistra Constell.NRG Ener.NextEra .Southern Duke Ene. 
Mkt Price155.48301.49147.7491.4095.55129.99138.87
Mkt Cap52.694.428.4190.2106.0101.097.7
Rev LTM17,73825,53330,71327,41329,55232,23728,482
Op Inc LTM2,1343,1151,9448,0207,2858,5775,200
FCF LTM1,3181,2887653,211-2,935-1,6941,026
FCF 3Y Avg2,527-3,8215793,237-1,215-1,457-318
CFO LTM4,0704,2371,91312,4859,80212,3307,020
CFO 3Y Avg4,695-1,1761,33312,3499,04811,5126,872

Growth & Margins

VSTCEGNRGNEESODUKMedian
NameVistra Constell.NRG Ener.NextEra .Southern Duke Ene. 
Rev Chg LTM3.0%8.3%9.2%10.8%10.6%6.2%8.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg9.1%1.6%-0.6%11.0%0.9%3.9%2.8%
Rev Chg Q13.5%12.9%13.7%20.7%10.1%7.9%13.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.2%2.8%3.1%4.2%2.2%1.8%3.0%
Op Mgn LTM12.0%12.2%6.3%29.3%24.7%26.6%18.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg18.0%12.0%3.6%31.0%24.7%25.7%21.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.2%0.1%-2.4%1.1%-1.0%-0.5%-0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM22.9%16.6%6.2%45.5%33.2%38.2%28.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg28.8%-5.0%4.6%46.4%33.2%37.6%31.0%
FCF/Rev LTM7.4%5.0%2.5%11.7%-9.9%-5.3%3.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg15.8%-15.8%2.0%12.4%-4.3%-4.8%-1.1%

Valuation

VSTCEGNRGNEESODUKMedian
NameVistra Constell.NRG Ener.NextEra .Southern Duke Ene. 
Mkt Cap52.694.428.4190.2106.0101.097.7
P/S3.03.70.96.93.63.13.4
P/EBIT25.023.515.120.912.910.818.0
P/E55.840.732.827.824.420.330.3
P/CFO12.922.314.815.210.88.213.9
Total Yield2.4%3.0%3.0%6.1%6.9%5.8%4.4%
Dividend Yield0.6%0.5%0.0%2.5%2.8%0.8%0.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg11.7%-8.9%1.7%2.2%-1.4%-1.8%0.2%
D/E0.40.10.60.50.70.90.5
Net D/E0.40.10.40.50.70.90.5

Returns

VSTCEGNRGNEESODUKMedian
NameVistra Constell.NRG Ener.NextEra .Southern Duke Ene. 
1M Rtn-10.5%-8.5%-17.4%-2.5%-1.9%-0.7%-5.5%
3M Rtn-3.7%-16.2%-7.9%14.4%10.5%11.9%3.4%
6M Rtn-24.8%-8.8%-11.9%22.1%2.7%7.5%-3.0%
12M Rtn31.3%47.5%57.1%33.6%8.3%12.7%32.4%
3Y Rtn583.8%301.3%373.6%30.3%55.6%52.0%178.4%
1M Excs Rtn-4.1%1.1%-10.7%7.2%7.0%8.4%4.1%
3M Excs Rtn4.3%-8.9%0.4%22.5%18.6%19.7%11.4%
6M Excs Rtn-19.1%-3.8%-5.3%27.7%7.2%11.7%1.7%
12M Excs Rtn14.5%28.2%42.1%23.5%-0.7%3.4%19.0%
3Y Excs Rtn504.0%252.5%333.9%-27.2%-0.7%-4.6%125.9%

Comparison Analyses

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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Retail12,79710,5729,4557,8718,270
East5,6615,8903,7062,5872,415
Texas5,3943,9793,7332,7904,116
West839914336374282
Asset Closure390384863
Corporate and Other-7,506-6,57610 
Eliminations  -4,755-2,284-4,895
Sunset  8686531,252
Total17,22414,77913,72812,07711,443


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Texas2,133398-615-2,5121,760
Retail1,2164241,1582,196309
East9021,749-868-56741
West486454-238150
Asset Closure-131-6-147-298-101
Corporate and Other -1,527-27053-1,021
Eliminations  00 
Sunset  -230-137-414
Total4,6061,492-1,210-1,264624


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$155.48 
Market Cap ($ Bil)52.7 
First Trading Date05/10/2017 
Distance from 52W High-28.5% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$161.69$180.95
DMA Trendindeterminateindeterminate
Distance from DMA-3.8%-14.1%
 3M1YR
Volatility59.3%55.6%
Downside Capture1.451.26
Upside Capture307.47177.81
Correlation (SPY)43.6%58.8%
VST Betas & Captures as of 2/28/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta1.132.132.231.941.771.71
Up Beta1.280.570.990.311.541.53
Down Beta-0.570.311.221.762.032.07
Up Capture216%447%340%264%305%1179%
Bmk +ve Days9203170142431
Stock +ve Days12223059127408
Down Capture103%275%271%218%139%108%
Bmk -ve Days12213054109320
Stock -ve Days9193165124341

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with VST
VST26.1%55.4%0.62-
Sector ETF (XLU)20.4%15.8%0.9855.1%
Equity (SPY)14.5%18.9%0.5958.7%
Gold (GLD)50.2%27.7%1.465.2%
Commodities (DBC)17.8%17.6%0.8525.7%
Real Estate (VNQ)0.4%16.4%-0.1533.0%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-23.7%44.2%-0.4923.8%

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Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with VST
VST59.4%47.3%1.15-
Sector ETF (XLU)11.3%17.2%0.5143.2%
Equity (SPY)11.8%17.0%0.5444.7%
Gold (GLD)20.7%17.7%0.9611.6%
Commodities (DBC)11.6%18.9%0.5018.0%
Real Estate (VNQ)3.0%18.8%0.0727.7%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)4.0%56.6%0.2920.3%

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Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with VST
VST28.2%42.9%0.81-
Sector ETF (XLU)9.9%19.2%0.4443.0%
Equity (SPY)14.0%17.9%0.6746.3%
Gold (GLD)13.3%15.8%0.709.4%
Commodities (DBC)8.2%17.6%0.3924.2%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.7%20.7%0.1936.9%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)66.4%66.8%1.0617.1%

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Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date3132026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity8.8 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 2282026-10.9%
Average Daily Volume4.9 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.8 days
Basic Shares Quantity338.6 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares2.6%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
2/26/20260.8%-6.8%-13.0%
11/6/2025-2.5%-5.9%-12.3%
8/7/20252.4%2.2%-6.4%
2/27/2025-12.3%-14.4%-19.3%
11/7/20247.6%12.7%26.9%
8/8/20246.9%7.2%-0.3%
5/8/20249.1%11.9%5.5%
2/28/20244.0%15.5%34.4%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive101213
# Negative1087
Median Positive5.0%6.5%5.5%
Median Negative-2.6%-6.4%-12.3%
Max Positive9.1%20.6%34.4%
Max Negative-24.2%-23.2%-25.3%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
12/31/202502/27/202610-K
09/30/202511/07/202510-Q
06/30/202508/08/202510-Q
03/31/202505/08/202510-Q
12/31/202402/28/202510-K
09/30/202411/08/202410-Q
06/30/202408/09/202410-Q
03/31/202405/10/202410-Q
12/31/202302/29/202410-K
09/30/202311/07/202310-Q
06/30/202308/09/202310-Q
03/31/202305/09/202310-Q
12/31/202203/01/202310-K
09/30/202211/04/202210-Q
06/30/202208/05/202210-Q
03/31/202205/06/202210-Q

Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]

Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/26/2026 | Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/6/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA6.80 Bil7.20 Bil7.60 Bil0 AffirmedGuidance: 7.20 Bil for 2026
2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG3.92 Bil4.33 Bil4.72 Bil0 AffirmedGuidance: 4.33 Bil for 2026
2027 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA Midpoint Opportunity7.40 Bil7.60 Bil7.80 Bil0 AffirmedGuidance: 7.60 Bil for 2027
2027 Share Repurchases 1.80 Bil    

Insider Activity

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#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Burke, James APresident and CEODirectSell12152025162.0522,2513,605,77548,290,576Form
2Moore, Stephanie ZapataEVP and General CounselDirectSell11262025173.358,2191,424,76413,842,691Form
3Hudson, Scott AEVP & President Vistra RetailDirectSell11182025168.8656,0009,456,16051,772,476Form
4Kirby, Carrie LeeEVP and Chief Admin. OfficerDirectSell11182025174.7558,27510,183,55638,137,265Form
5Burke, James APresident and CEODirectSell11132025186.5321,9354,091,53650,563,433Form