Vistra (VST)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $176.91 | Market Cap: $59.9 BilSector: Utilities | Industry: Electric Utilities
Vistra (VST)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $176.91Market Cap: $59.9 BilSector: UtilitiesIndustry: Electric Utilities
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
VST Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points highlighting why Vistra (VST) stock moved by -9.1% from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Lower Operating Profit and Earnings Miss: Vistra experienced a significant decrease in operating profit for the third quarter of 2025, primarily due to higher costs, asset write-downs, and lower unrealized mark-to-market gains on derivative positions. The company also reported Q3 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of $1.75, missing the consensus estimate of $1.78, and revenue of $4.97 billion, falling short of the $6.60 billion consensus.
2. Operational Setbacks and Plant Outages: Vistra faced operational challenges, including the loss of battery storage capacity due to a fire and another fire at a coal plant, which is expected to keep one unit out of service until late 2025 or early 2026. These plant problems and unplanned outages contributed to a downturn in the generation segment, with reported EBITDA reflecting a 5% year-over-year decline.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| VST Return | -12% | 20% | 5% | 71% | 262% | 26% | 759% |
| Peers Return | -12% | 9% | 3% | -22% | 23% | 9% | 4% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| VST Win Rate | 50% | 58% | 58% | 67% | 75% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 40% | 42% | 50% | 45% | 53% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| VST Max Drawdown | -45% | -18% | -9% | -8% | -1% | -29% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -25% | -7% | -14% | -32% | -16% | -9% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PNW, IDA, ALE, HE, EE. See VST Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | VST | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 324 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -46.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 86.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 343 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -21.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 99 days | 120 days |
Compare to PNW, IDA, ALE, HE, EE
In The Past
Vistra's stock fell -33.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/24/2021. A -33.2% loss requires a 49.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to VST. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.7% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.3% | 9.3% | -3.2% |
| 05312025 | VST | Vistra | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 11.7% | 7.7% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.7% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.3% | 9.3% | -3.2% |
| 05312025 | VST | Vistra | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 11.7% | 7.7% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Vistra
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Growth & Margins
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Valuation
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Returns
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Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail | 10,572 | 9,455 | 7,871 | 8,270 | 6,872 |
| East | 5,890 | 3,706 | 2,587 | 2,415 | 2,790 |
| Texas | 3,979 | 3,733 | 2,790 | 4,116 | 3,836 |
| West | 914 | 336 | 374 | 282 | 338 |
| Asset Closure | 0 | 384 | 86 | 3 | 341 |
| Corporate and Other | -6,576 | 1 | 0 | ||
| Eliminations | -4,755 | -2,284 | -4,895 | -3,970 | |
| Sunset | 868 | 653 | 1,252 | 1,602 | |
| Total | 14,779 | 13,728 | 12,077 | 11,443 | 11,809 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East | 1,749 | -868 | -567 | 41 | 400 |
| West | 454 | -238 | 1 | 50 | 88 |
| Retail | 424 | 1,158 | 2,196 | 309 | 134 |
| Texas | 398 | -615 | -2,512 | 1,760 | 1,342 |
| Asset Closure | -6 | -147 | -298 | -101 | -109 |
| Corporate and Other | -1,527 | -270 | 53 | -1,021 | -1,204 |
| Eliminations | 0 | 0 | 1 | ||
| Sunset | -230 | -137 | -414 | 274 | |
| Total | 1,492 | -1,210 | -1,264 | 624 | 926 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8092024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5102024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3012023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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