Vistra (VST)
Market Price (3/30/2026): $156.05 | Market Cap: $52.8 BilSector: Utilities | Industry: Electric Utilities
Vistra (VST)
Market Price (3/30/2026): $156.05Market Cap: $52.8 BilSector: UtilitiesIndustry: Electric Utilities
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, CFO LTM is 4.1 Bil | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 25x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 56x |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Show more. | Key risksVST key risks include [1] a significant debt burden that constrains financial flexibility and [2] operational challenges across its large and complex generation portfolio, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, CFO LTM is 4.1 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 25x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 56x |
| Key risksVST key risks include [1] a significant debt burden that constrains financial flexibility and [2] operational challenges across its large and complex generation portfolio, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Vistra's Q4 2025 earnings significantly missed analyst expectations, raising investor concerns. The company reported an EPS of $0.54 for Q4 2025, missing the estimated $2.38 by 77.31%. Additionally, sales for the quarter totaled $4.58 billion, falling short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of approximately $5.34 billion by 14.1%.
2. The stock experienced profit-taking and valuation adjustments after a substantial run-up in late 2025. Vistra reached a 52-week high of $219.82 in late 2025, driven by market enthusiasm. However, a "cooling off" period and stretched valuations likely contributed to the subsequent decline, with the stock sliding about 15.5% from its late-2025 high of $219.82 to around $151-$152 by late March 2026.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -12.8% change in VST stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -20.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 178.37 | 155.48 | -12.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 17,191 | 17,738 | 3.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.7% | 5.3% | -20.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 52.4 | 55.8 | 6.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 339 | 339 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -12.8% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VST | -12.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.3% | 42.9% |
| Sector (XLU) | 1.4% | 65.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -17.5% change in VST stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -58.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 188.39 | 155.48 | -17.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 18,508 | 17,738 | -4.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.9% | 5.3% | -58.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 26.8 | 55.8 | 108.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 339 | 339 | 0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -17.5% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VST | -17.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.6% | 43.2% |
| Sector (XLU) | 9.7% | 60.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 17.1% change in VST stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 228.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 132.75 | 155.48 | 17.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 17,224 | 17,738 | 3.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.4% | 5.3% | -65.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.0 | 55.8 | 228.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 340 | 339 | 0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 17.1% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VST | 17.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.8% | 59.7% |
| Sector (XLU) | 18.4% | 51.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 639.4% change in VST stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 349.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 21.03 | 155.48 | 639.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 13,173 | 17,738 | 34.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.7 | 3.0 | 349.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 414 | 339 | 22.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 639.4% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VST | 639.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 69.4% | 47.3% |
| Sector (XLU) | 53.8% | 41.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| VST Return | 20% | 5% | 71% | 262% | 18% | -5% | 763% |
| Peers Return | 19% | 8% | 16% | 46% | 35% | 2% | 205% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -5% | 72% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| VST Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 67% | 75% | 50% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 58% | 58% | 60% | 63% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| VST Max Drawdown | -18% | -9% | -8% | -1% | -29% | -12% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -8% | -19% | -17% | -5% | -9% | -9% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -5% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CEG, NRG, NEE, SO, DUK. See VST Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/27/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | VST | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 324 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -46.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 86.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 343 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -21.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 99 days | 120 days |
Compare to CEG, NRG, NEE, SO, DUK
In The Past
Vistra's stock fell -33.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/24/2021. A -33.2% loss requires a 49.7% gain to breakeven.
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About Vistra (VST)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Vistra:
- The ExxonMobil (XOM) of electricity.
- The AT&T (T) of electricity.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Retail Electricity: Vistra sells electricity directly to residential, commercial, and industrial customers.
- Retail Natural Gas: Vistra sells natural gas directly to residential, commercial, and industrial customers.
- Electricity Generation: Vistra produces electricity from a diverse portfolio of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery storage facilities.
- Wholesale Energy Trading: Vistra engages in the purchase and sale of energy commodities in wholesale markets.
- Energy Commodity Risk Management: Vistra provides services to manage financial risks associated with energy price volatility.
- Fuel Production & Logistics: Vistra is involved in the production of fuel and the management of its supply chain.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Vistra (VST) sells electricity and natural gas primarily to a diverse base of customers, including individuals and businesses. Based on the company description, it serves the following categories of customers:
- Residential Customers: Individuals and households who consume electricity and natural gas for their homes.
- Commercial Customers: Businesses and organizations, ranging from small enterprises to large corporations, that use electricity and natural gas for their operations.
- Industrial Customers: Large-scale industrial facilities and manufacturing plants that require substantial amounts of electricity and natural gas for production processes.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
Jim Burke, President and Chief Executive Officer
Jim Burke has been with Vistra and its predecessor companies since 2004, serving in various leadership positions, including president and chief financial officer from December 2020 to July 2022, and chief operating officer from 2016 until December 2020. He previously served as chairman and CEO of TXU Energy, a subsidiary of Vistra and its predecessor company, from August 2005 to October 2016. Before joining TXU Energy, Burke was president and chief operating officer of Gexa Energy, a Houston-based retailer that was subsequently acquired by FPL in 2005. Prior to Gexa Energy, he held roles as vice president of residential marketing and senior vice president of consumer operations with Reliant Energy. Burke also worked at The Coca-Cola Company for six years and was a management consultant for Deloitte & Touche Consulting.
Kris Moldovan, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Kris Moldovan has been with Vistra and its predecessor companies since 2006. He previously served as senior vice president and treasurer from 2017 to 2022, and as assistant treasurer from 2010 to 2017. Moldovan originally joined the company as senior counsel, focusing on finance and mergers and acquisitions. Before joining Vistra, he was an attorney for Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher, LLP and Wildman, Harrold, Allen & Dixon, where he gained extensive experience in M&A, finance, and general corporate advisory.
Stacey Doré, Chief Strategy & Sustainability Officer, Executive Vice President of Public Affairs
Stacey Doré originally joined Vistra's predecessor companies in 2008 as part of the legal team, holding leadership roles including executive vice president, general counsel, and chief restructuring officer. Prior to rejoining Vistra, she most recently served as president and chief executive officer of Hunt Utility Services and Sharyland Utilities from 2019-2021. She also served as senior vice president and general counsel for publicly traded InfraREIT, Inc. from 2016-2019. Doré began her career as an attorney at Vinson & Elkins, LLP in 1997.
Scott A. Hudson, Executive Vice President and President of Vistra Retail
Scott A. Hudson serves as the head of Vistra's retail business and is the president of TXU Energy. He joined TXU Energy in 2011, serving as the company's chief operating officer. Previously, Hudson held various leadership positions at LexisNexis and MBNA.
Carrie Kirby, Executive Vice President and Chief Administrative Officer
Carrie Kirby oversees the functions of human resources, community affairs, supply chain, corporate security, and facilities management at Vistra.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Key Risks to Vistra (VST)
- Regulatory and Policy Changes: As an integrated retail electricity and power generation company, Vistra is highly susceptible to regulatory shifts and government policies, particularly those related to environmental protection, carbon emissions, and the structure of energy market deals. Changes in these regulations, especially concerning how power is priced or how "behind-the-meter" data center deals are structured in key operating states like Texas and Pennsylvania, could significantly impact Vistra's operations, compliance costs, strategic direction, and profitability.
- Operational Risks in Nuclear Facilities: Vistra operates nuclear generation facilities, which inherently carry significant operational risks. Any unscheduled outages at major nuclear plants, such as Comanche Peak, could lead to severe impacts on the company's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and cash flow.
- Commodity Price Volatility and Debt Levels: Vistra is exposed to the volatility of fuel prices, particularly natural gas, which can impact its operating margins and overall profitability. Furthermore, the company carries a relatively high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating significant leverage. This high debt level increases Vistra's sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations and could affect its ability to raise additional capital, limiting its capacity to react to economic or industry changes.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The accelerating global and national shift towards decarbonization and renewable energy sources (solar, wind) coupled with advanced battery storage technology poses a clear emerging threat. This transition is rapidly making traditional fossil fuel-based generation assets (particularly coal, and increasingly natural gas) economically uncompetitive and potentially obsolete well before their planned operational lifespan. Vistra's significant portfolio of coal, natural gas, and nuclear power plants faces the risk of becoming stranded assets, leading to significant write-downs, reduced profitability, and increased operational costs as they compete with ever-cheaper and environmentally preferred alternatives. This fundamental shift challenges the economic viability of a large portion of Vistra's existing generation capacity.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Addressable Markets for Vistra (VST)
- Retail Electricity: The addressable market for retail electricity in the United States was approximately $424.3 billion in 2021.
- Natural Gas Distribution: The U.S. natural gas distribution market was valued at approximately $170.0 billion in 2024.
- Electricity Generation: The revenue for the U.S. power generation industry totaled approximately $129.2 billion in 2022. Net electricity generation from utility-scale generators in the United States was about 4,178 billion kilowatthours (4.18 trillion kWh) in 2023.
- Energy Trading and Risk Management (ETRM): The U.S. Energy Trading and Risk Management market was valued at an estimated $10.8 billion in 2025.
- Fuel Production and Fuel Logistics Management: Null
AI Analysis | Feedback
Vistra (VST) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives and market trends:
- Strategic Acquisitions: Vistra's inorganic growth strategy, including the acquisition of Energy Harbor in 2024 and Cogentrix's natural gas plants, significantly bolsters its generation capacity and nuclear footprint. These acquisitions are expected to increase the company's asset base and contribute to higher Adjusted EBITDA.
- Rising Power Demand from Data Centers and AI: The increasing demand for electricity from power-intensive sectors like cloud infrastructure, high-performance computing, and artificial intelligence is a significant driver for Vistra. The company has secured multi-decade power purchase agreements with major technology companies like AWS and Meta to meet this accelerating load growth.
- Expansion of Zero-Carbon Generation and Energy Storage: Vistra is actively expanding its nuclear, solar, and battery energy storage facilities. This includes repurposing retired coal plants for solar and energy storage, aligning with its goal of achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. This expansion also makes the company eligible for government subsidies and nuclear production tax credits (PTCs), which have already contributed to increased revenues.
- Growth in Retail Customer Base and Strong Performance: The company anticipates continued strong performance in its retail segment, driven by growth in its customer count and improved margins. Vistra currently serves approximately 5 million customers across 20 states, indicating a solid foundation for ongoing retail revenue growth.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Vistra executed approximately $4.9 billion in share repurchases between November 2021 and February 24, 2025, resulting in a reduction of approximately 30% in outstanding shares from November 2021 levels.
- As of May 2, 2025, Vistra had repurchased shares totaling $5.2 billion since November 2021, with approximately $1.5 billion of share repurchase authorization remaining, which is expected to be completed by year-end 2026.
- Vistra's board authorized an additional $1 billion for share repurchases in March 2023, increasing the total authorization to approximately $1.8 billion, expected to be completed by year-end 2024. As of October 31, 2025, $2.2 billion remained under current authorization, expected to be fully utilized by the end of 2027.
Share Issuance
- In October 2021, Vistra announced a private offering of $1 billion of 8% Series A Fixed-Rate Reset Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Stock, with the net proceeds intended for common stock repurchases.
- Vistra's shares outstanding have consistently decreased over recent years, from 0.48 billion at the end of 2021 to 0.353 billion in 2024 and 0.338 billion at the end of 2025, primarily due to share repurchases.
Outbound Investments
- Vistra completed the acquisition of Energy Harbor Corp. on March 1, 2024, adding approximately 4,000 megawatts of 24/7 nuclear generation and about 1 million additional retail customers.
- On October 22, 2025, Vistra completed the acquisition of seven modern natural gas generation facilities from Lotus Infrastructure Partners, totaling approximately 2,600 MW of capacity, for a base purchase price of $1.9 billion.
- In January 2026, Vistra announced the acquisition of Cogentrix Energy, which includes 10 natural gas plants with approximately 5,500 MW capacity.
Capital Expenditures
- Vistra is strategically committing significant capital expenditures to enhance its renewable energy and energy storage portfolio.
- The company aims to invest $2.27 billion in 2025, an increase from $1.85 billion in 2024 and $1.61 billion in 2023.
- The primary focus of these capital expenditures is the development of solar, battery storage, and modernized gas-fired facilities, supporting Vistra's clean energy transition.
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Trade Ideas
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12122025 | CTRI | Centuri | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 16.6% | 16.6% | -5.5% |
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.8% | 6.8% | -4.0% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 27.5% | 27.5% | -0.8% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 36.9% | 36.9% | -3.2% |
| 05312025 | VST | Vistra | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 11.7% | 8.7% | -10.9% |
| 06302022 | VST | Vistra | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.0% | 18.5% | -7.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 138.87 |
| Mkt Cap | 97.7 |
| Rev LTM | 28,482 |
| Op Inc LTM | 5,200 |
| FCF LTM | 1,026 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -318 |
| CFO LTM | 7,020 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 6,872 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 13.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 18.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 21.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 28.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 31.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -1.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 97.7 |
| P/S | 3.4 |
| P/EBIT | 18.0 |
| P/E | 30.3 |
| P/CFO | 13.9 |
| Total Yield | 4.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 0.2% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 3.4% |
| 6M Rtn | -3.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 32.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 178.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 11.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 1.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 19.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 125.9% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail | 12,797 | 10,572 | 9,455 | 7,871 | 8,270 |
| East | 5,661 | 5,890 | 3,706 | 2,587 | 2,415 |
| Texas | 5,394 | 3,979 | 3,733 | 2,790 | 4,116 |
| West | 839 | 914 | 336 | 374 | 282 |
| Asset Closure | 39 | 0 | 384 | 86 | 3 |
| Corporate and Other | -7,506 | -6,576 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eliminations | -4,755 | -2,284 | -4,895 | ||
| Sunset | 868 | 653 | 1,252 | ||
| Total | 17,224 | 14,779 | 13,728 | 12,077 | 11,443 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | 2,133 | 398 | -615 | -2,512 | 1,760 |
| Retail | 1,216 | 424 | 1,158 | 2,196 | 309 |
| East | 902 | 1,749 | -868 | -567 | 41 |
| West | 486 | 454 | -238 | 1 | 50 |
| Asset Closure | -131 | -6 | -147 | -298 | -101 |
| Corporate and Other | -1,527 | -270 | 53 | -1,021 | |
| Eliminations | 0 | 0 | |||
| Sunset | -230 | -137 | -414 | ||
| Total | 4,606 | 1,492 | -1,210 | -1,264 | 624 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $155.48 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 52.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/10/2017 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -28.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $161.69 | $180.95 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | -3.8% | -14.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 59.3% | 55.6% |
| Downside Capture | 1.45 | 1.26 |
| Upside Capture | 307.47 | 177.81 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 43.6% | 58.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.13 | 2.13 | 2.23 | 1.94 | 1.77 | 1.71 |
| Up Beta | 1.28 | 0.57 | 0.99 | 0.31 | 1.54 | 1.53 |
| Down Beta | -0.57 | 0.31 | 1.22 | 1.76 | 2.03 | 2.07 |
| Up Capture | 216% | 447% | 340% | 264% | 305% | 1179% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 22 | 30 | 59 | 127 | 408 |
| Down Capture | 103% | 275% | 271% | 218% | 139% | 108% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 19 | 31 | 65 | 124 | 341 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with VST | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VST | 26.1% | 55.4% | 0.62 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 20.4% | 15.8% | 0.98 | 55.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.5% | 18.9% | 0.59 | 58.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 50.2% | 27.7% | 1.46 | 5.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 17.8% | 17.6% | 0.85 | 25.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.4% | 16.4% | -0.15 | 33.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -23.7% | 44.2% | -0.49 | 23.8% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with VST | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VST | 59.4% | 47.3% | 1.15 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 11.3% | 17.2% | 0.51 | 43.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.8% | 17.0% | 0.54 | 44.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.7% | 17.7% | 0.96 | 11.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.6% | 18.9% | 0.50 | 18.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.0% | 18.8% | 0.07 | 27.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.0% | 56.6% | 0.29 | 20.3% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with VST | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VST | 28.2% | 42.9% | 0.81 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 9.9% | 19.2% | 0.44 | 43.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 46.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.3% | 15.8% | 0.70 | 9.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 17.6% | 0.39 | 24.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.7% | 20.7% | 0.19 | 36.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.4% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 17.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/26/2026 | 0.8% | -6.8% | -13.0% |
| 11/6/2025 | -2.5% | -5.9% | -12.3% |
| 8/7/2025 | 2.4% | 2.2% | -6.4% |
| 2/27/2025 | -12.3% | -14.4% | -19.3% |
| 11/7/2024 | 7.6% | 12.7% | 26.9% |
| 8/8/2024 | 6.9% | 7.2% | -0.3% |
| 5/8/2024 | 9.1% | 11.9% | 5.5% |
| 2/28/2024 | 4.0% | 15.5% | 34.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 12 | 13 |
| # Negative | 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 5.0% | 6.5% | 5.5% |
| Median Negative | -2.6% | -6.4% | -12.3% |
| Max Positive | 9.1% | 20.6% | 34.4% |
| Max Negative | -24.2% | -23.2% | -25.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/27/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/28/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/01/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/06/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/26/2026 | Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/6/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA | 6.80 Bil | 7.20 Bil | 7.60 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 7.20 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG | 3.92 Bil | 4.33 Bil | 4.72 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 4.33 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2027 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA Midpoint Opportunity | 7.40 Bil | 7.60 Bil | 7.80 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 7.60 Bil for 2027 | |
| 2027 Share Repurchases | 1.80 Bil | ||||||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Burke, James A | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 12152025 | 162.05 | 22,251 | 3,605,775 | 48,290,576 | Form |
| 2 | Moore, Stephanie Zapata | EVP and General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 11262025 | 173.35 | 8,219 | 1,424,764 | 13,842,691 | Form |
| 3 | Hudson, Scott A | EVP & President Vistra Retail | Direct | Sell | 11182025 | 168.86 | 56,000 | 9,456,160 | 51,772,476 | Form |
| 4 | Kirby, Carrie Lee | EVP and Chief Admin. Officer | Direct | Sell | 11182025 | 174.75 | 58,275 | 10,183,556 | 38,137,265 | Form |
| 5 | Burke, James A | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 11132025 | 186.53 | 21,935 | 4,091,536 | 50,563,433 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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