Vistra (VST)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $173.99 | Market Cap: $58.9 BilSector: Utilities | Industry: Electric Utilities
Vistra (VST)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $173.99Market Cap: $58.9 BilSector: UtilitiesIndustry: Electric Utilities
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, CFO LTM is 4.0 Bil | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 30x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 17x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 58x |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Show more. | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -21% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 75% | |
| Key risksVST key risks include [1] a significant debt burden that constrains financial flexibility and [2] operational challenges across its large and complex generation portfolio, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, CFO LTM is 4.0 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 30x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 17x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 58x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -21% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 75% |
| Key risksVST key risks include [1] a significant debt burden that constrains financial flexibility and [2] operational challenges across its large and complex generation portfolio, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
VST Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points that likely contributed to a decline in Vistra (VST) stock price during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 17, 2025:
1. Significant Q3 2025 Earnings Miss: Vistra Energy reported its Third Quarter 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of $1.75, which fell short of the consensus estimate of $1.78. Additionally, revenue came in at $4.97 billion, significantly missing analyst expectations of $6.60 billion. This disappointing financial performance led to an immediate drop in the stock price, with pre-market trading showing a 3.88% decline on November 6, 2025.
2. Decline in GAAP Net Income: The company's GAAP Net Income for the third quarter of 2025 was $652 million, representing a substantial decrease of $1,185 million compared to the third quarter of 2024. This decline was primarily attributed to lower unrealized mark-to-market gains on derivative positions and impacts from an outage at the Martin Lake Unit 1.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| VST Return | -12% | 20% | 5% | 71% | 262% | 23% | 737% |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | 16% | 46% | 36% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 110% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| VST Win Rate | 50% | 58% | 58% | 67% | 75% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | 59% | 58% | 60% | 63% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| VST Max Drawdown | -45% | -18% | -9% | -8% | -1% | -29% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | -17% | -5% | -9% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CEG, NRG, NEE, SO, DUK. See VST Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/16/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | VST | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 324 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -46.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 86.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 343 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -21.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 99 days | 120 days |
Compare to PNW, IDA, ALE, HE, EE
In The Past
Vistra's stock fell -33.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/24/2021. A -33.2% loss requires a 49.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to VST. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.9% | -0.9% | -2.4% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -0.8% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.7% | 6.7% | -3.2% |
| 05312025 | VST | Vistra | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 11.7% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.9% | -0.9% | -2.4% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -0.8% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.7% | 6.7% | -3.2% |
| 05312025 | VST | Vistra | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 11.7% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Vistra
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 137.87 |
| Mkt Cap | 92.2 |
| Rev LTM | 27,605 |
| Op Inc LTM | 5,210 |
| FCF LTM | 684 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -450 |
| CFO LTM | 6,684 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 6,480 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 19.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 20.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 27.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -1.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 92.2 |
| P/S | 3.7 |
| P/EBIT | 16.9 |
| P/E | 23.7 |
| P/CFO | 12.2 |
| Total Yield | 5.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -2.1% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 4.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 17.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 182.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -6.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -9.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 5.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 106.7% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail | 10,572 | 9,455 | 7,871 | 8,270 | 6,872 |
| East | 5,890 | 3,706 | 2,587 | 2,415 | 2,790 |
| Texas | 3,979 | 3,733 | 2,790 | 4,116 | 3,836 |
| West | 914 | 336 | 374 | 282 | 338 |
| Asset Closure | 0 | 384 | 86 | 3 | 341 |
| Corporate and Other | -6,576 | 1 | 0 | ||
| Eliminations | -4,755 | -2,284 | -4,895 | -3,970 | |
| Sunset | 868 | 653 | 1,252 | 1,602 | |
| Total | 14,779 | 13,728 | 12,077 | 11,443 | 11,809 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East | 1,749 | -868 | -567 | 41 | 400 |
| West | 454 | -238 | 1 | 50 | 88 |
| Retail | 424 | 1,158 | 2,196 | 309 | 134 |
| Texas | 398 | -615 | -2,512 | 1,760 | 1,342 |
| Asset Closure | -6 | -147 | -298 | -101 | -109 |
| Corporate and Other | -1,527 | -270 | 53 | -1,021 | -1,204 |
| Eliminations | 0 | 0 | 1 | ||
| Sunset | -230 | -137 | -414 | 274 | |
| Total | 1,492 | -1,210 | -1,264 | 624 | 926 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | -2.5% | -5.9% | -12.3% |
| 8/7/2025 | 2.4% | 2.2% | -6.4% |
| 2/27/2025 | -12.3% | -14.4% | -19.3% |
| 11/7/2024 | 7.6% | 12.7% | 26.9% |
| 8/8/2024 | 6.9% | 7.2% | -0.3% |
| 5/8/2024 | 9.1% | 11.9% | 5.5% |
| 2/28/2024 | 4.0% | 15.5% | 34.4% |
| 11/7/2023 | -1.6% | -2.6% | 2.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 13 | 13 |
| # Negative | 11 | 7 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% |
| Median Negative | -2.7% | -5.9% | -12.3% |
| Max Positive | 9.1% | 20.6% | 34.4% |
| Max Negative | -24.2% | -23.2% | -25.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8092024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5102024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3012023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |