Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, CFO LTM is 4.0 Bil
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 30x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 17x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 58x
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Show more.
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -21%
2  Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 75%
3  Key risks
VST key risks include [1] a significant debt burden that constrains financial flexibility and [2] operational challenges across its large and complex generation portfolio, Show more.
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, CFO LTM is 4.0 Bil
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Show more.
2 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 30x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 17x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 58x
3 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -21%
4 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 75%
5 Key risks
VST key risks include [1] a significant debt burden that constrains financial flexibility and [2] operational challenges across its large and complex generation portfolio, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

VST Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are key points that likely contributed to a decline in Vistra (VST) stock price during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 17, 2025:

1. Significant Q3 2025 Earnings Miss: Vistra Energy reported its Third Quarter 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of $1.75, which fell short of the consensus estimate of $1.78. Additionally, revenue came in at $4.97 billion, significantly missing analyst expectations of $6.60 billion. This disappointing financial performance led to an immediate drop in the stock price, with pre-market trading showing a 3.88% decline on November 6, 2025.

2. Decline in GAAP Net Income: The company's GAAP Net Income for the third quarter of 2025 was $652 million, representing a substantial decrease of $1,185 million compared to the third quarter of 2024. This decline was primarily attributed to lower unrealized mark-to-market gains on derivative positions and impacts from an outage at the Martin Lake Unit 1.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
VST Return-12%20%5%71%262%23%737%
Peers Return16%46%36%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%110%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
VST Win Rate50%58%58%67%75%50% 
Peers Win Rate59%58%60%63% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
VST Max Drawdown-45%-18%-9%-8%-1%-29% 
Peers Max Drawdown-17%-5%-9% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CEG, NRG, NEE, SO, DUK. See VST Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/16/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventVSTS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-33.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven49.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven324 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-46.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven86.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven343 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-21.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven27.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven99 days120 days

Compare to PNW, IDA, ALE, HE, EE


In The Past

Vistra's stock fell -33.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/24/2021. A -33.2% loss requires a 49.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Vistra (VST)

Better Bets than Vistra (VST)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to VST. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PEG_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025PEGPublic Service EnterpriseMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.9%-0.9%-2.4%
PCG_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025PCGPG&EDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-0.8%
AES_9052025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09052025AESAESDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.7%6.7%-3.2%
VST_5312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%05312025VSTVistraQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
11.7%8.3%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PEG_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025PEGPublic Service EnterpriseMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.9%-0.9%-2.4%
PCG_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025PCGPG&EDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-0.8%
AES_9052025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09052025AESAESDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.7%6.7%-3.2%
VST_5312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%05312025VSTVistraQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
11.7%8.3%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Vistra

Peers to compare with:

Financials

VSTCEGNRGNEESODUKMedian
NameVistra Constell.NRG Ener.NextEra .Southern Duke Ene. 
Mkt Price173.45365.62160.1581.3285.71115.59137.87
Mkt Cap58.8114.430.9167.994.589.992.2
Rev LTM17,19124,84129,77926,29828,91231,65927,605
Op Inc LTM2,1043,0172,5987,4047,4268,5835,210
FCF LTM1,645-2761,6993,073-1,823-921684
FCF 3Y Avg2,328-4,7681302,421-1,031-2,122-450
CFO LTM3,9912,4162,74211,9679,37812,0496,684
CFO 3Y Avg4,349-2,25282611,8478,61010,5396,480

Growth & Margins

VSTCEGNRGNEESODUKMedian
NameVistra Constell.NRG Ener.NextEra .Southern Duke Ene. 
Rev Chg LTM5.7%3.6%5.9%0.2%9.4%4.8%5.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg9.5%3.7%-0.9%11.4%1.3%5.2%4.5%
Rev Chg Q-20.9%0.3%5.7%5.3%7.5%4.8%5.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-7.1%0.1%1.4%1.5%1.9%1.2%1.3%
Op Mgn LTM12.2%12.1%8.7%28.2%25.7%27.1%19.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg17.0%11.1%1.8%31.5%23.7%25.1%20.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-7.5%-1.7%4.8%-1.4%0.3%0.3%-0.6%
CFO/Rev LTM23.2%9.7%9.2%45.5%32.4%38.1%27.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg26.8%-8.9%2.9%44.6%31.6%34.6%29.2%
FCF/Rev LTM9.6%-1.1%5.7%11.7%-6.3%-2.9%2.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg14.4%-19.0%0.5%9.3%-3.7%-7.1%-1.6%

Valuation

VSTCEGNRGNEESODUKMedian
NameVistra Constell.NRG Ener.NextEra .Southern Duke Ene. 
Mkt Cap58.8114.430.9167.994.589.992.2
P/S3.94.11.05.93.63.03.7
P/EBIT30.124.713.020.712.510.416.9
P/E57.637.621.724.023.419.323.7
P/CFO16.642.611.413.011.18.012.2
Total Yield2.2%3.1%4.6%7.1%7.1%6.0%5.3%
Dividend Yield0.5%0.5%0.0%2.9%2.9%0.8%0.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg11.6%-9.5%-5.5%1.3%-1.3%-2.9%-2.1%
D/E0.30.10.40.60.70.90.5
Net D/E0.30.00.40.60.70.90.5

Returns

VSTCEGNRGNEESODUKMedian
NameVistra Constell.NRG Ener.NextEra .Southern Duke Ene. 
1M Rtn-0.7%8.0%-3.1%-2.4%-4.7%-5.8%-2.7%
3M Rtn-17.2%13.4%-2.2%17.2%-5.4%-3.0%-2.6%
6M Rtn-2.2%19.9%5.9%14.8%-1.5%2.5%4.2%
12M Rtn20.0%53.6%72.4%15.2%8.2%11.5%17.6%
3Y Rtn657.6%324.9%457.7%5.5%39.1%29.7%182.0%
1M Excs Rtn-1.7%7.0%-4.0%-3.4%-5.7%-6.8%-3.7%
3M Excs Rtn-19.8%10.9%-5.5%13.4%-8.7%-6.7%-6.1%
6M Excs Rtn-15.9%6.2%-7.8%1.1%-15.2%-11.2%-9.5%
12M Excs Rtn7.9%41.4%58.2%2.1%-6.1%-2.7%5.0%
3Y Excs Rtn591.4%244.8%363.6%-67.8%-31.5%-43.1%106.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Retail10,5729,4557,8718,2706,872
East5,8903,7062,5872,4152,790
Texas3,9793,7332,7904,1163,836
West914336374282338
Asset Closure0384863341
Corporate and Other-6,57610  
Eliminations -4,755-2,284-4,895-3,970
Sunset 8686531,2521,602
Total14,77913,72812,07711,44311,809


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
East1,749-868-56741400
West454-23815088
Retail4241,1582,196309134
Texas398-615-2,5121,7601,342
Asset Closure-6-147-298-101-109
Corporate and Other-1,527-27053-1,021-1,204
Eliminations 00 1
Sunset -230-137-414274
Total1,492-1,210-1,264624926


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity7,769,224
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520259.3%
Average Daily Volume3,867,750
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.01
Basic Shares Quantity338,749,454
Short % of Basic Shares2.3%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/6/2025-2.5%-5.9%-12.3%
8/7/20252.4%2.2%-6.4%
2/27/2025-12.3%-14.4%-19.3%
11/7/20247.6%12.7%26.9%
8/8/20246.9%7.2%-0.3%
5/8/20249.1%11.9%5.5%
2/28/20244.0%15.5%34.4%
11/7/2023-1.6%-2.6%2.7%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive91313
# Negative1177
Median Positive5.2%5.9%5.5%
Median Negative-2.7%-5.9%-12.3%
Max Positive9.1%20.6%34.4%
Max Negative-24.2%-23.2%-25.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251107202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025808202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024228202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241108202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024809202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024510202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023229202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231107202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022301202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221104202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022805202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022506202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021225202210-K 12/31/2021