Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.4%, Dividend Yield is 3.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.2%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 62%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 143%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 6.5x
2 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 35%
 
3 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 102%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%
 
4 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 24%
 
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, Water Infrastructure, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Grid Automation, Show more.
 
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.4%, Dividend Yield is 3.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.2%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 143%
2 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 35%
3 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 102%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%
4 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 24%
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, Water Infrastructure, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Grid Automation, Show more.
6 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 62%
7 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 6.5x

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MDU Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Performance and Pipeline Segment Growth. MDU Resources reported a revenue beat for its third quarter of 2025, despite an earnings per share (EPS) miss. The company's income from continuing operations increased by $2.8 million, driven by an 11.3% rise in pipeline segment earnings due to growth projects and customer demand for short-term firm transportation contracts. This positive earnings report led to a 3.76% increase in the stock price in pre-market trading.

2. Increased Long-Term Capital Investment Plan. MDU Resources announced an expanded $3.4 billion five-year capital investment plan spanning from 2026 through 2030. This significant investment signals the company's commitment to future growth and infrastructure development, which can be viewed favorably by investors.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MDU Return-8%20%1%-3%74%17%121%
Peers Return24%33%-8%22%39%31%234%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MDU Win Rate50%67%50%50%58%50% 
Peers Win Rate53%68%48%58%55%60% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MDU Max Drawdown-47%-2%-18%-12%-4%-13% 
Peers Max Drawdown-44%-9%-26%-13%-13%-18% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VMC, OGE, PRIM, MYRG, NEE. See MDU Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMDUS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-27.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven37.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven687 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-51.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven107.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven392 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-22.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven28.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven359 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-62.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven167.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1852 days1480 days

Compare to VMC, OGE, PRIM, MYRG, NEE


In The Past

MDU Resources's stock fell -27.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/7/2021. A -27.4% loss requires a 37.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About MDU Resources (MDU)

Better Bets than MDU Resources (MDU)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MDU. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PEG_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025PEGPublic Service EnterpriseMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.7%-0.7%-0.7%
PCG_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025PCGPG&EDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
2.5%2.5%0.0%
AES_9052025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09052025AESAESDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
9.3%9.3%-3.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PEG_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025PEGPublic Service EnterpriseMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.7%-0.7%-0.7%
PCG_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025PCGPG&EDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
2.5%2.5%0.0%
AES_9052025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09052025AESAESDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
9.3%9.3%-3.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for MDU Resources

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MDUVMCOGEPRIMMYRGNEEMedian
NameMDU Reso.Vulcan M.OGE Ener.Primoris.MYR NextEra . 
Mkt Price20.24292.5944.25125.51219.7984.95105.23
Mkt Cap4.138.78.96.83.4175.47.8
Rev LTM5237,8823,2957,4593,51426,2985,486
Op Inc LTM1831,5858434241457,404634
FCF LTM661,055-1674891563,073323
FCF 3Y Avg49828-133288702,421179
CFO LTM5361,71088262623311,967754
CFO 3Y Avg5201,53999440715511,847757

Growth & Margins

MDUVMCOGEPRIMMYRGNEEMedian
NameMDU Reso.Vulcan M.OGE Ener.Primoris.MYR NextEra . 
Rev Chg LTM143.2%6.5%18.0%21.5%-0.6%0.2%12.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg6.6%3.2%1.3%23.9%8.6%11.4%7.6%
Rev Chg Q1.9%14.4%8.2%32.1%7.0%5.3%7.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.3%3.8%2.5%7.6%1.8%1.5%2.1%
Op Mgn LTM35.0%20.1%25.6%5.7%4.1%28.2%22.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg40.2%18.4%24.0%5.0%3.1%31.5%21.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-2.2%0.8%0.2%0.1%0.7%-1.4%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM102.5%21.7%26.8%8.4%6.6%45.5%24.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg128.4%20.1%33.9%6.1%4.4%44.6%27.0%
FCF/Rev LTM12.6%13.4%-5.1%6.6%4.4%11.7%9.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg16.9%10.8%-4.5%4.3%2.0%9.3%6.8%

Valuation

MDUVMCOGEPRIMMYRGNEEMedian
NameMDU Reso.Vulcan M.OGE Ener.Primoris.MYR NextEra . 
Mkt Cap4.138.78.96.83.4175.47.8
P/S6.55.22.81.00.95.94.0
P/EBIT16.124.610.717.521.720.719.1
P/E15.836.318.526.833.024.025.4
P/CFO6.423.810.611.913.913.012.4
Total Yield9.4%3.4%9.1%4.0%3.0%7.1%5.5%
Dividend Yield3.1%0.6%3.7%0.2%0.0%2.9%1.8%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg1.2%2.5%-1.7%6.8%2.5%1.3%1.9%
D/E0.60.10.60.10.00.60.4
Net D/E0.60.10.60.10.00.60.3

Returns

MDUVMCOGEPRIMMYRGNEEMedian
NameMDU Reso.Vulcan M.OGE Ener.Primoris.MYR NextEra . 
1M Rtn4.3%1.4%0.3%-12.4%-3.4%4.6%0.8%
3M Rtn26.4%1.7%0.8%9.1%20.3%19.4%14.2%
6M Rtn21.9%10.3%3.0%72.3%37.1%23.3%22.6%
12M Rtn5.1%2.9%7.4%50.8%37.2%14.8%11.1%
3Y Rtn88.2%62.3%27.2%492.5%131.2%8.8%75.3%
1M Excs Rtn4.4%1.4%0.3%-12.4%-3.3%4.6%0.9%
3M Excs Rtn20.4%-5.1%-4.5%1.8%13.8%15.3%7.8%
6M Excs Rtn7.2%-4.4%-11.7%57.5%22.4%8.6%7.9%
12M Excs Rtn-9.4%-11.2%-8.9%37.0%25.6%-2.2%-5.6%
3Y Excs Rtn18.5%-6.2%-45.9%441.0%61.1%-62.1%6.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Natural gas distribution1,2881,274972848865
Electric401377350332352
Pipeline178156143144140
Other0051217
Intersegment operating revenues-63-59-66-77-77
Construction services  2,0522,0961,849
Construction materials and contracting   2,1782,191
Total1,8031,7473,4545,5335,337


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Other248230-14-3-2
Electric7257525655
Natural gas distribution4945524440
Pipeline4735413730
Construction services  11211093
Discontinued operations, net of tax  136-00
Construction materials and contracting   147120
Total415367378390335


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Natural gas distribution3,5323,2142,9302,3032,575
Electric1,9561,8561,8112,1241,680
Other1,3003,6282,411305303
Pipeline1,046962914703677
Construction services  845819761
Assets held for sale   12
Construction materials and contracting   1,7981,684
Total7,8339,6618,9108,0537,683


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity11,387,225
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202510.0%
Average Daily Volume3,009,219
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.78
Basic Shares Quantity204,331,000
Short % of Basic Shares5.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024220202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023222202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022224202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022805202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021223202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211104202110-Q 9/30/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Vollmer Jason LCFO9092025Buy16.075,00080,3755,538,612Form
1Vollmer Jason LCFO8192025Buy16.275,00081,3755,526,147Form
2JOHNSON DENNIS W 2102025Buy16.6430,000499,2002,997,962Form