Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9%, Dividend Yield is 2.7%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 57%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 478%
Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.0%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%
Key risks
MDU key risks include [1] financial instability and uncertainty from its significant business restructuring and spin-offs, Show more.
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 24%
 
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, Water Infrastructure, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Grid Automation, Show more.
 
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9%, Dividend Yield is 2.7%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 478%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 24%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, Water Infrastructure, and Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Grid Automation, Show more.
5 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 57%
6 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.0%
7 Key risks
MDU key risks include [1] financial instability and uncertainty from its significant business restructuring and spin-offs, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MDU Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for why MDU Resources (symbol: MDU) stock moved by 20.9% for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:

1. Positive Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Report and Outlook: On November 6, 2025, MDU Resources announced its third quarter 2025 financial results, which showed mixed performance but overall positive market reception. The company reported an increase in income from continuing operations and robust earnings in its pipeline segment, which rose by 11.3%. Although the earnings per share (EPS) of $0.09 missed the consensus forecast, revenue exceeded expectations by 37.87%, leading to a 3.76% rise in the stock price in pre-market trading. MDU also narrowed its 2025 earnings guidance to a range of $0.90 to $0.95 per share, reflecting confidence in its performance.

2. Increased Capital Investment Plan for 2026-2030: On November 20, 2025, MDU Resources announced an ambitious capital investment plan totaling $3.4 billion for the period from 2026 through 2030. This plan signifies a notable increase from its prior forecast and focuses on enhancing energy delivery infrastructure across its regulated electric, natural gas distribution, and pipeline sectors. Key investments include the final payment for a 49% stake in the Badger Wind Farm and the advancement of the Jamestown to Ellendale transmission line project, positioning the company for sustained long-term growth.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MDU Return-8%20%1%-3%74%12%111%
Peers Return-13%13%7%-8%17%20%36%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MDU Win Rate50%67%50%50%58%50% 
Peers Win Rate47%53%55%57%58%62% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MDU Max Drawdown-47%-2%-18%-12%-4%-13% 
Peers Max Drawdown-32%-8%-10%-18%-10%-4% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BKH, ATO, XEL, OGE, NWE. See MDU Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMDUS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-27.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven37.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven687 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-51.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven107.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven392 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-22.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven28.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven359 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-62.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven167.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,852 days1,480 days

Compare to VMC, OGE, PRIM, MYRG, NEE


In The Past

MDU Resources's stock fell -27.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/7/2021. A -27.4% loss requires a 37.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About MDU Resources (MDU)

Better Bets than MDU Resources (MDU)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MDU. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PEG_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025PEGPublic Service EnterpriseMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.9%-0.9%-2.4%
PCG_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025PCGPG&EDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-0.8%
AES_9052025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09052025AESAESDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.7%6.7%-3.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PEG_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025PEGPublic Service EnterpriseMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.9%-0.9%-2.4%
PCG_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025PCGPG&EDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-0.8%
AES_9052025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09052025AESAESDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.7%6.7%-3.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for MDU Resources

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MDUBKHATOXELOGENWEMedian
NameMDU Reso.Black Hi.Atmos En.Xcel Ene.OGE Ener.NorthWes. 
Mkt Price19.3970.59169.1773.1443.0765.7468.16
Mkt Cap4.05.127.543.38.74.06.9
Rev LTM1,8772,2724,70314,2283,2951,5702,783
Op Inc LTM2785301,5602,637843357686
FCF LTM-57-105-1,512-5,149-167-122-145
FCF 3Y Avg-290-687-2,465-133-129-131
CFO LTM4536582,0494,538882401770
CFO 3Y Avg4847532,4144,869994411874

Growth & Margins

MDUBKHATOXELOGENWEMedian
NameMDU Reso.Black Hi.Atmos En.Xcel Ene.OGE Ener.NorthWes. 
Rev Chg LTM478.2%7.0%12.9%3.4%18.0%4.9%10.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg112.1%-0.1%4.0%-0.8%1.3%3.9%2.6%
Rev Chg Q8.7%7.1%12.1%7.4%8.2%12.1%8.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.4%1.3%1.7%1.9%2.5%2.7%1.8%
Op Mgn LTM14.8%23.3%33.2%18.5%25.6%22.8%23.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-21.4%30.2%18.2%24.0%21.3%21.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.1%-0.2%0.2%0.5%0.2%0.2%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM24.2%29.0%43.6%31.9%26.8%25.6%27.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-32.7%55.4%34.1%33.9%27.1%33.9%
FCF/Rev LTM-3.0%-4.6%-32.2%-36.2%-5.1%-7.8%-6.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-3.6%-15.2%-17.4%-4.5%-8.5%-8.5%

Valuation

MDUBKHATOXELOGENWEMedian
NameMDU Reso.Black Hi.Atmos En.Xcel Ene.OGE Ener.NorthWes. 
Mkt Cap4.05.127.543.38.74.06.9
P/S2.12.05.83.42.82.32.6
P/EBIT12.88.4-17.210.79.710.7
P/E23.415.722.924.918.516.620.7
P/CFO8.76.813.410.510.69.09.7
Total Yield6.9%10.7%5.4%6.6%9.1%10.5%8.0%
Dividend Yield2.7%4.3%1.0%2.6%3.7%4.5%3.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-0.4%2.7%--5.7%-1.7%-3.9%-1.7%
D/E0.61.0-0.70.60.90.7
Net D/E0.61.0-0.70.60.90.7

Returns

MDUBKHATOXELOGENWEMedian
NameMDU Reso.Black Hi.Atmos En.Xcel Ene.OGE Ener.NorthWes. 
1M Rtn-4.5%1.5%-3.7%-10.0%-3.4%1.8%-3.6%
3M Rtn23.2%21.9%4.1%1.5%-1.4%18.8%11.4%
6M Rtn22.0%28.8%12.2%11.2%0.0%31.5%17.1%
12M Rtn7.8%22.8%22.4%11.0%7.2%31.7%16.7%
3Y Rtn92.8%17.2%58.8%15.9%24.3%33.8%29.0%
1M Excs Rtn-5.2%0.8%-4.4%-10.8%-4.1%1.1%-4.3%
3M Excs Rtn20.0%20.1%3.4%-0.0%-2.3%16.3%9.8%
6M Excs Rtn9.7%16.4%-0.2%-1.2%-12.4%19.1%4.8%
12M Excs Rtn-4.9%9.9%12.0%-0.1%-4.6%24.1%4.9%
3Y Excs Rtn16.8%-54.8%-15.2%-55.2%-46.3%-36.8%-41.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Natural gas distribution1,2881,274972848865
Electric401377350332352
Pipeline178156143144140
Other06141217
Intersegment operating revenues-63-70-78-77-77
Construction services 2,6992,0522,0961,849
Construction materials and contracting  2,2292,1782,191
Total1,8034,4425,6815,5335,337


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Other248-17-6-3-2
Electric7257525655
Natural gas distribution4945524440
Pipeline4736413730
Construction services 12910911093
Discontinued operations, net of tax 1170-00
Construction materials and contracting  130147120
Total415367378390335


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Natural gas distribution3,5323,2142,9302,3032,575
Electric1,9561,8561,8112,1241,680
Other1,3002,502249305303
Pipeline1,046962914703677
Construction services 1,126845819761
Construction materials and contracting  2,1621,7981,684
Assets held for sale   12
Total7,8339,6618,9108,0537,683


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity10,429,344
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-8.4%
Average Daily Volume1,883,412
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.54
Basic Shares Quantity204,331,000
Short % of Basic Shares5.1%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/6/20254.7%7.6%-1.0%
8/7/2025-6.7%-3.4%-7.5%
5/8/2025-0.6%-4.5%-4.6%
2/6/2025-5.9%-6.4%-7.6%
11/7/20243.3%7.7%14.9%
8/8/2024-1.8%-4.8%-2.7%
5/2/20240.9%2.2%1.5%
2/8/20241.1%5.5%14.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111313
# Negative121010
Median Positive3.3%3.6%5.8%
Median Negative-2.2%-4.6%-6.0%
Max Positive6.3%10.5%18.6%
Max Negative-8.5%-6.5%-12.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251110202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024220202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023222202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022224202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022805202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021223202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Vollmer Jason LCFO9092025Buy16.075,00080,3755,538,612Form
1Vollmer Jason LCFO8192025Buy16.275,00081,3755,526,147Form
2JOHNSON DENNIS W 2102025Buy16.6430,000499,2002,997,962Form