WEC Energy (WEC)
Market Price (9/23/2026): $102.18 | Market Cap: $33.3 BilSector: Utilities | Industry: Electric Utilities
WEC Energy (WEC)
Market Price (9/23/2026): $102.18Market Cap: $33.3 BilSector: UtilitiesIndustry: Electric Utilities
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.6%, Dividend Yield is 3.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.5% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, CFO LTM is 3.6 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 16% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Wind Energy Development, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -23%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -42% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 68% Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14% Key risksWEC key risks include [1] the dependency on regulatory approvals to recover costs from its projected $28 billion capital investment plan and [2] margin pressure from rising interest rates while financing these expenditures. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.6%, Dividend Yield is 3.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.5% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, CFO LTM is 3.6 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 16% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Wind Energy Development, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -23%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -42% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 68% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14% |
| Key risksWEC key risks include [1] the dependency on regulatory approvals to recover costs from its projected $28 billion capital investment plan and [2] margin pressure from rising interest rates while financing these expenditures. |
Qualitative Assessment
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WEC Energy (WEC) stock has lost about 5% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Macroeconomic headwinds from a deteriorating utility sector outlook and rising financing costs pressured the stock. On June 12, 2026, Fitch Ratings revised its North American utility and power sector outlook from neutral to deteriorating, citing increasing regulatory and political resistance to rate increases necessary for utilities to recover substantial capital expenditures, such as the estimated $240 billion for U.S. utilities in 2026. WEC Energy Group itself has a significant capital spending plan of $37.5 billion from fiscal 2026 through fiscal 2030, which is entirely within regulated businesses. The challenge of funding this multi-billion dollar plan amidst potentially rising financing costs and without excessive shareholder dilution has been highlighted as a key risk. The company anticipates issuing approximately $1.1 billion of common equity in fiscal 2026 to support its capital needs.
2. WEC Energy Group's revenue for fiscal Q2 2026 (which ended June 30, 2026) fell short of analyst expectations. While the company reported an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $0.91 on July 29, 2026, beating the consensus estimate of $0.80 by $0.11, its quarterly revenue increased by only 2.6% year-over-year to $2.06 billion. This revenue figure was below the analyst consensus estimate of $2.11 billion, potentially raising investor concerns about the company's top-line growth despite the EPS beat.
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WEC Energy (WEC) stock has lost about 5% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Macroeconomic headwinds from a deteriorating utility sector outlook and rising financing costs pressured the stock. On June 12, 2026, Fitch Ratings revised its North American utility and power sector outlook from neutral to deteriorating, citing increasing regulatory and political resistance to rate increases necessary for utilities to recover substantial capital expenditures, such as the estimated $240 billion for U.S. utilities in 2026. WEC Energy Group itself has a significant capital spending plan of $37.5 billion from fiscal 2026 through fiscal 2030, which is entirely within regulated businesses. The challenge of funding this multi-billion dollar plan amidst potentially rising financing costs and without excessive shareholder dilution has been highlighted as a key risk. The company anticipates issuing approximately $1.1 billion of common equity in fiscal 2026 to support its capital needs.
2. WEC Energy Group's revenue for fiscal Q2 2026 (which ended June 30, 2026) fell short of analyst expectations. While the company reported an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $0.91 on July 29, 2026, beating the consensus estimate of $0.80 by $0.11, its quarterly revenue increased by only 2.6% year-over-year to $2.06 billion. This revenue figure was below the analyst consensus estimate of $2.11 billion, potentially raising investor concerns about the company's top-line growth despite the EPS beat.
3. Analyst downgrades and reductions in price targets negatively impacted investor sentiment. Over the specified period, several Wall Street analysts adjusted their ratings and price targets for WEC Energy Group. For instance, on August 4, 2026, Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. downgraded WEC Energy from "Buy" to "Hold" and reduced its price target from $126 to $111. Subsequently, on August 18, 2026, Truist Financial maintained a "Hold" rating but lowered its price target from $122 to $114. On August 20, 2026, J.P. Morgan also maintained a "Hold" rating while adjusting its price target from $124 to $121. These adjustments by multiple firms indicated a more cautious outlook, likely contributing to downward pressure on the stock.
4. Increased operating and maintenance costs, coupled with delayed rate relief, negatively impacted the stock outlook. The company's stock outlook was affected by a year-over-year decline attributed to factors such as delayed recognition of rate relief and an increase in depreciation, amortization, interest, and operating maintenance costs. Additionally, the absence of a prior fuel cost benefit and a gain related to Pleasant Prairie further contributed to the negative sentiment surrounding the company's financial performance.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -6.6% change in WEC stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -9.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 110.09 | 102.83 | -6.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 10,085 | 10,137 | 0.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.3% | 16.7% | 2.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 21.9 | 19.8 | -9.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 326 | 326 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -6.6% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WEC | -6.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.5% | -15.3% |
| Sector (XLU) | -8.2% | 81.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -10.6% change in WEC stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -17.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 114.97 | 102.83 | -10.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 9,800 | 10,137 | 3.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.9% | 16.7% | 5.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.0 | 19.8 | -17.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 326 | 326 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -10.6% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WEC | -10.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.3% | -6.0% |
| Sector (XLU) | -13.9% | 84.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -0.2% change in WEC stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -6.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 9222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 102.99 | 102.83 | -0.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 9,307 | 10,137 | 8.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 17.9% | 16.7% | -6.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.8 | 19.8 | -0.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 320 | 326 | -1.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -0.2% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WEC | -0.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 21.2% | -7.6% |
| Sector (XLU) | -1.2% | 78.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 36.1% change in WEC stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 14.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 8312023 | 9222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 75.56 | 102.83 | 36.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 9,280 | 10,137 | 9.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.6% | 16.7% | 14.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.6 | 19.8 | 12.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 315 | 326 | -3.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 36.1% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WEC | 36.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.3% | 7.1% |
| Sector (XLU) | 40.9% | 78.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| WEC Return | 9% | 0% | -7% | 16% | 16% | 1% | 37% |
| Peers Return | 15% | 1% | -7% | 18% | 12% | 0% | 42% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 107% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| WEC Win Rate | 50% | 58% | 67% | 50% | 58% | 44% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 57% | 55% | 57% | 48% | 42% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 56% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| WEC Max Drawdown | -12% | -24% | -21% | -11% | -11% | -12% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -12% | -25% | -20% | -12% | -10% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: XEL, AEE, DTE, CMS, LNT. See WEC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/22/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | WEC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -15.6% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 304 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -12.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 29 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -30.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 207 days | 140 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -10.2% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.4% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 106 days | 6 days |
| 2013 Taper Tantrum | ||
| % Loss | -10.9% | -0.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.3% | 0.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 237 days | 1 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -12.0% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.6% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 16 days | 123 days |
In The Past
WEC Energy's stock fell -0.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 0.6% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | WEC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -30.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 207 days | 140 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -23.2% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.2% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 276 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
WEC Energy's stock fell -0.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 0.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About WEC Energy (WEC)
WEC Energy Group (WEC) is a diversified utility holding company primarily focused on providing regulated natural gas and electricity services. Operating across several U.S. states, notably Wisconsin and Illinois, the company generates electricity from a broad range of sources, including traditional fossil fuels like coal, natural gas, and oil, alongside renewable options such as hydroelectric, wind, solar, and biomass. Beyond its core regulated utility business, WEC Energy Group also develops and manages nonregulated renewable energy projects, contributing to a greener energy future.
The company's main products and services encompass the entire energy delivery chain. This includes the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity, ensuring power reaches homes and businesses. Additionally, WEC provides retail natural gas distribution services and manages the transportation of natural gas, supported by extensive pipeline infrastructure and underground storage facilities. WEC Energy Group also generates, distributes, and sells steam, further diversifying its utility offerings.
WEC Energy Group primarily serves a vast customer base consisting of residential, commercial, and industrial clients within its regulated service territories. Millions of households and businesses depend on the company for their daily electricity and natural gas requirements across Wisconsin, Illinois, and other operational states. Its non-utility energy infrastructure segment also caters to specific market demands for large-scale renewable energy solutions.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for WEC Energy (WEC):
- Like Duke Energy (DUK) or NextEra Energy (NEE), but primarily focused on providing electricity and natural gas services across the Midwest.
- The energy infrastructure equivalent of a regional AT&T (T) or Verizon (VZ), delivering essential electricity and natural gas to homes and businesses.
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- Electricity Generation and Distribution: WEC generates electricity from various sources and distributes it to customers.
- Natural Gas Distribution and Transmission: WEC provides retail natural gas distribution services and operates natural gas transmission infrastructure.
- Electric Transmission Services: WEC offers services for the high-voltage transmission of electricity across its grid.
- Renewable Energy Services: WEC provides services related to the generation and delivery of renewable energy.
- Steam Services: WEC generates, distributes, and sells steam to its customers.
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WEC Energy Group (WEC) is a regulated utility company. Its major customers are not other specific public companies but rather a broad base of individuals and businesses within its service territories. The company sells primarily to:
- Residential customers: Individual households and apartments consuming electricity and natural gas for their daily needs.
- Commercial customers: A wide range of businesses, including retail stores, offices, educational institutions, hospitals, and government facilities.
- Industrial customers: Large manufacturing plants, factories, and other industrial operations that require significant amounts of electricity and natural gas for their processes.
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Gale Klappa, Executive Chairman
Gale Klappa has over 45 years of experience in the public utility industry, with more than 30 years at the senior executive level. He joined Wisconsin Energy (WEC Energy Group's predecessor) as president in April 2003 and was elected to the board in December 2003. From May 2004, he served as chairman and chief executive officer of Wisconsin Energy and We Energies. Under his leadership, the company completed its 2015 acquisition of Integrys Energy Group, at which point he assumed the same roles for WEC Energy Group. Klappa served as non-executive chairman after retiring as CEO in May 2016, then resumed the role of chairman and chief executive officer in October 2017 to provide leadership and continuity, returning to the non-executive chairman role in May 2024. Before joining WEC Energy Group, Klappa held executive leadership roles at Southern Company, including executive vice president, chief financial officer and treasurer, chief strategic officer, North American group president of Southern Energy Inc., and president and CEO of South Western Electricity (Southern Company's electric distribution utility in the United Kingdom). He graduated cum laude from the University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee with a bachelor's degree in mass communications.
Scott Lauber, President and Chief Executive Officer
Scott Lauber was named president and chief executive officer of WEC Energy Group and appointed to the board of directors in February 2022. He previously served as senior executive vice president and became chief operating officer in June 2020. In his role as executive vice president and COO, Lauber had senior oversight responsibility for Information Technology, Major Projects, Power Generation, Supply Chain, Supplier Diversity, and WEC Infrastructure and Fuels. Lauber joined Wisconsin Energy Corp. in 1990 and has held positions of increasing responsibility, including financial manager of distribution operations, manager of corporate accounting and budgeting, controller, assistant treasurer, and vice president and treasurer. In April 2016, he was named executive vice president and chief financial officer for WEC Energy Group. Before joining Wisconsin Energy Corp., he was a staff accountant in Arthur Andersen's Milwaukee office. Lauber graduated with honors from the University of Wisconsin-Whitewater with a Bachelor of Business Administration degree in accounting and is a certified public accountant.
Xia Liu, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Xia Liu began her role as executive vice president and chief financial officer in June 2020. In this capacity, she is responsible for the company's strategic and long-range financial planning, corporate forecasting and budgeting, treasury, accounting, tax, insurance, risk management, and investor relations functions. Liu joined WEC Energy Group from CenterPoint Energy, where she served as executive vice president and chief financial officer since 2019. Prior to that, she spent 21 years with Southern Company and its subsidiaries across three states, holding a dozen roles including executive vice president, chief financial officer and treasurer of Georgia Power (Southern Company's largest subsidiary), and chief financial officer and treasurer for Gulf Power Co.
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Key Risks to WEC Energy (WEC)
WEC Energy Group (WEC) faces several significant risks inherent to the utility industry and its specific operational and strategic landscape. The most prominent risks include regulatory challenges, the escalating costs and complexities associated with environmental compliance and the transition to cleaner energy, and inherent operational risks to its extensive infrastructure.1. Regulatory Risks
As a heavily regulated utility company, WEC Energy Group's financial performance is significantly influenced by governmental regulations and rate-setting decisions by state and federal commissions. Changes in legislation and regulation can directly impact its operating environment and its ability to recover prudently incurred costs from customers. A notable example of this risk is the Illinois Commerce Commission's (ICC) 2023 final rate order, which disallowed certain capital costs, leading to impairment losses and a pause in some infrastructure spending. Such regulatory actions introduce uncertainty and can materially affect the company's financial results and long-term stability.2. Environmental Compliance Costs and Energy Transition
WEC Energy Group is exposed to increasing environmental compliance costs driven by evolving federal, state, and local regulations, particularly those related to greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. The company has ambitious environmental goals, including achieving net carbon-neutral electric generation by 2050 and eliminating coal as an energy source by 2032 or 2035, requiring substantial capital investments in renewable energy projects like solar, wind, and battery storage, as well as natural gas-fired generation. The transition to renewable energy and electrification initiatives could also impact demand for natural gas, necessitating significant capital reallocation and potentially leading to higher operating costs and financial liabilities, including from litigation over environmental issues.3. Operational Risks and Infrastructure Reliability
The reliability and safety of WEC Energy Group's extensive electric generation, transmission, distribution facilities, and natural gas infrastructure are critical to its operations. The company faces operational risks from severe weather events, equipment failures, cyberattacks, and supply chain disruptions. Catastrophic weather-related damage, for instance, has previously resulted in impairment losses. Additionally, inflation could lead to increased costs and delays for ongoing projects and infrastructure upgrades. The continuous need to maintain and modernize its vast network to ensure reliable service presents ongoing challenges and capital requirements.AI Analysis | Feedback
The proliferation of distributed energy resources (DERs), such as rooftop solar panels combined with battery storage systems, enabling customers to generate and store their own electricity. This trend can significantly reduce customer reliance on grid-supplied electricity, potentially leading to partial or complete grid defection and thereby eroding the utility's traditional revenue streams based on volumetric electricity sales and fixed grid connection charges.
Increasing adoption of electric heat pumps and other electric heating solutions, driven by decarbonization efforts and technological advancements, which could lead to a decline in demand for natural gas and impact WEC Energy's natural gas distribution segment.
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WEC Energy Group (symbol: WEC) operates in regulated natural gas and electricity distribution, renewable energy, and steam services across several U.S. states. The addressable markets for its main products and services are primarily regional for its utility operations and national for its renewable energy ventures.
Regulated Electricity Distribution
- Wisconsin: The total retail electricity sales in Wisconsin amounted to 68,291,424 megawatt-hours (MWh) in 2024, with an average retail price of 12.72 cents per kilowatt-hour (kWh). This indicates an addressable market size of approximately $8.68 billion for electricity distribution in Wisconsin for 2024. WEC Energy Group, through its subsidiaries We Energies and Wisconsin Public Service, serves over 2.3 million and 824,000 electricity and natural gas customers, respectively, in Wisconsin.
Regulated Natural Gas Distribution
- Illinois: Customers in Illinois consume 1,063.0 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of natural gas annually. With 4.3 million natural gas customers (including 3,989,782 households and 299,540 businesses) and an estimated average monthly gas bill of around $83, the annual addressable market for natural gas distribution in Illinois is approximately $4.28 billion. WEC Energy Group's subsidiaries, Peoples Gas and North Shore Gas, deliver natural gas to approximately 898,000 customers in Chicago and 166,000 customers in Chicago's northern suburbs, respectively.
Renewable Energy Services
- U.S. National Market: The U.S. renewable energy market was valued at approximately $78.36 billion in 2025 and is anticipated to grow to approximately $85.37 billion in 2026. This market is projected to reach $169.49 billion by 2034, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 8.95% from 2026 to 2034. WEC Energy Group is involved in renewable energy through generation from sources like wind, solar, and biomass, and plans significant investments in battery energy storage systems (BESSs). [cite: BACKGROUND, 27]
Steam (District Heating) Services
- U.S. National Market: The U.S. district heating market size was valued at $5.59 billion in 2024. It is projected to increase to $5.76 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach $7.47 billion by 2032.
Markets Unable to Be Sized in Dollars
The addressable markets for regulated natural gas distribution in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota, as well as electric transmission services, could not be definitively sized in dollar values based on the available information. For these segments, WEC Energy Group operates within regulated frameworks where market size is typically defined by consumption within specific service territories rather than a competitive dollar-denominated market.
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WEC Energy Group (symbol: WEC) is poised for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several strategic initiatives and increasing energy demand within its service territories.
The primary drivers include:
- Substantial Capital Investment in Regulated Assets: WEC Energy Group plans a historic five-year capital investment of $37.5 billion for 2026-2030, with the vast majority directed towards its regulated business segments. This extensive capital plan is expected to expand the company's rate base, thereby driving revenue growth through regulated returns on these investments.
- Expansion of Renewable Energy and Modernized Natural Gas Generation: A significant portion of the capital plan, estimated at $12.6 billion between 2026 and 2030, is allocated to new renewable energy projects, including solar, wind, and battery storage, to substantially increase carbon-free generation capacity. Additionally, approximately $7.4 billion is earmarked for modern, efficient natural gas generation and liquefied natural gas storage, essential for maintaining reliability during the energy transition. These investments directly contribute to increased generation capacity and sales.
- Growing Electricity Demand from Data Centers and Economic Growth: WEC Energy Group anticipates significant electric sales growth, particularly from an accelerating demand from large data centers, such as those for Microsoft and Vantage Data Centers, within its service territories. This new industrial demand is a key factor, with forecasted electric demand additions of up to 3.9 gigawatts by 2030. Overall, electric sales growth is projected to be between 6% and 8% annually from 2028 through 2030.
- Investments in Electric Transmission and Distribution Infrastructure: The company is investing heavily in upgrading its electric transmission and natural gas distribution systems to enhance reliability, support economic expansion, and integrate new generation sources. This includes a projected $4.1 billion investment in the American Transmission Company (ATC), in which WEC holds a 60% share, to support new load growth. These infrastructure enhancements expand the regulated asset base, contributing to revenue.
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Share Issuance
- WEC Energy plans significant equity issuances to fund its capital expenditure plans, aiming to maintain approximately 50% equity content for its projects.
- The company issued approximately $800 million in common equity in 2025.
- For 2026, WEC projects common equity issuance of $900 million to $1.1 billion.
Capital Expenditures
- WEC Energy Group has a planned five-year capital expenditure plan of approximately $37.5 billion for the 2026-2030 period, an increase of $1 billion from November 2025. The prior five-year capital plan for 2025-2029 was $28 billion.
- The capital plan for 2026-2030 is largely driven by expected electric demand growth from planned data centers and other large loads in its service area, including projects by Microsoft and Vantage Data Centers.
- Between 2026 and 2030, WEC plans to invest approximately $20.3 billion in electric generation, including $12.6 billion in regulated clean energy projects (solar, battery storage, and wind), and $7.4 billion in modern natural gas generation and LNG storage. An additional $4.1 billion is allocated for American Transmission Company (ATC) projects.
Peer Outperformance in Electric Utilities
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WEC | WEC Energy | 3.3% | 19.8x | -3.2% | 34.0% | 36.1% | — |
| VST | Vistra | 6.7% | 21.3x | -35.2% | 333.6% | 768.8% | +733pp |
| ETR | Entergy | 0.7% | 25.5x | 16.2% | 131.0% | 137.1% | +101pp |
| AEP | American Electric Power | 5.5% | 20.8x | 15.8% | 69.3% | 74.9% | +39pp |
| SO | Southern | 3.1% | 20.8x | -4.7% | 36.1% | 61.2% | +25pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders | 6 | -26.5% | 37.6% | 100.4% | HNRG 536% · OKLO 311% · NRG 174% |
| Gas Utilities | 10 | 2.3% | 43.3% | 41.2% | ATO 102% · NFG 82% · NJR 79% |
| Multi-Utilities | 18 | 4.4% | 34.6% | 40.3% | NI 96% · MDU 96% · CNP 73% |
| Electric Utilities ← | 24 | 3.8% | 39.5% | 40.1% | VST 769% · GNE 178% · ETR 137% |
| Water Utilities | 11 | 5.7% | 5.7% | -11.3% | CWCO 170% · HTO 9% · AWR 8% |
| Renewable Electricity | 5 | -40.2% | -67.7% | -94.4% | ORA 46% · CWEN 25% · AGIG -94% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 86.86 |
| Mkt Cap | 27.1 |
| Rev LTM | 9,475 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,282 |
| FCF LTM | -1,698 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -1,260 |
| CFO LTM | 3,305 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,138 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | -1.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 5.4% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 9.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 21.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 20.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 29.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 30.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -15.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -12.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 27.1 |
| P/S | 3.1 |
| P/Op Inc | 13.3 |
| P/EBIT | 11.7 |
| P/E | 19.8 |
| P/CFO | 9.3 |
| Total Yield | 8.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -5.0% |
| D/E | 0.8 |
| Net D/E | 0.8 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -4.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -11.1% |
| 6M Rtn | -6.8% |
| 12M Rtn | -0.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 33.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -6.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -16.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -23.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -16.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -39.4% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin | 7,296 | 6,330 | 6,626 | 6,960 | 6,037 |
| Illinois | 1,684 | 1,602 | 1,558 | 1,891 | 1,673 |
| Non-Utility Energy Infrastructure | 770 | 691 | 666 | 590 | 540 |
| Other states | 528 | 450 | 519 | 618 | 519 |
| Corporate and other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Electric transmission | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reconciling eliminations | -477 | -474 | -476 | -463 | -453 |
| Total | 9,800 | 8,600 | 8,893 | 9,597 | 8,316 |
| $ Mil | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin | 1,190 | 800 | 1,066 | 1,027 | 884 |
| Non-Utility Energy Infrastructure | 367 | 366 | 400 | ||
| Illinois | 292 | 256 | 273 | 240 | 78 |
| Other states | 65 | 69 | 54 | 50 | |
| Corporate and other | -34 | -22 | -8 | -10 | -91 |
| Reconciling eliminations | -348 | ||||
| We Power | 376 | 373 | |||
| OtherStates | 6 | ||||
| Total | 1,531 | 1,468 | 1,785 | 1,682 | 1,250 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin | 1,055 | 863 | 851 | 758 | 706 |
| Non-Utility Energy Infrastructure | 411 | 381 | 336 | 324 | 279 |
| Electric transmission | 148 | 141 | 119 | 130 | 106 |
| Illinois | 122 | 252 | 140 | 227 | 223 |
| Other states | 61 | 54 | 48 | 40 | 36 |
| Reconciling eliminations | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Corporate and other | -239 | -164 | -163 | -71 | -50 |
| Total | 1,557 | 1,527 | 1,332 | 1,408 | 1,300 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin | 33,985 | 30,623 | 28,527 | 27,384 | 25,688 |
| Illinois | 8,168 | 8,169 | 7,970 | 8,101 | 7,853 |
| Non-Utility Energy Infrastructure | 7,763 | 7,316 | 6,405 | 5,321 | 4,628 |
| Electric transmission | 2,283 | 2,126 | 2,006 | 1,909 | 1,793 |
| Other states | 1,733 | 1,646 | 1,572 | 1,640 | 1,506 |
| Corporate and other | 1,228 | 1,037 | 1,100 | 774 | 785 |
| Reconciling eliminations | -3,641 | -3,554 | -3,640 | -3,256 | -3,265 |
| Total | 51,518 | 47,363 | 43,940 | 41,872 | 38,988 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $102.83 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 33.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/26/1984 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -12.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $108.12 | $109.84 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | down |
| Distance from DMA | -4.9% | -6.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 17.4% | 16.1% |
| Downside Capture | 0.17 | -12.97 |
| Upside Capture | -46.56 | -14.30 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -12.4% | -8.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.16 | -0.31 | -0.34 | -0.13 | -0.13 | 0.08 |
| Up Beta | 0.00 | -0.20 | -0.17 | -0.12 | -0.13 | 0.07 |
| Down Beta | -0.30 | 0.70 | 0.03 | 0.03 | -0.03 | 0.05 |
| Up Capture | -34% | -77% | -52% | -18% | -7% | 4% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 7 | 15 | 28 | 55 | 125 | 387 |
| Down Capture | -3% | -31% | -56% | -13% | -29% | 9% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 14 | 27 | 36 | 72 | 126 | 363 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with WEC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WEC | -3.4% | 16.1% | -0.41 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | -1.9% | 15.2% | -0.33 | 78.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 17.6% | 13.0% | 0.98 | -8.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.0% | 29.3% | 0.56 | 1.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 46.6% | 20.7% | 1.75 | -6.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 13.6% | 0.12 | 52.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -26.0% | 44.9% | -0.54 | -7.7% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with WEC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WEC | 5.6% | 19.0% | 0.19 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 6.7% | 17.4% | 0.24 | 84.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.3% | 17.2% | 0.59 | 23.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.9% | 18.8% | 0.81 | 15.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.8% | 19.6% | 0.43 | 4.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.0% | 18.9% | -0.05 | 56.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 12.7% | 52.6% | 0.42 | 2.5% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with WEC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WEC | 9.1% | 21.6% | 0.38 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 8.5% | 19.2% | 0.37 | 86.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 36.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.2% | 16.4% | 0.61 | 15.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.3% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 4.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.7% | 20.7% | 0.19 | 57.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 64.0% | 66.2% | 1.04 | 2.6% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/31/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/29/2026 | -2.0% | -3.8% | -4.5% |
| 5/5/2026 | -1.0% | -3.2% | -4.7% |
| 2/5/2026 | -1.2% | -0.2% | 3.0% |
| 10/30/2025 | -1.7% | -2.4% | -3.8% |
| 7/30/2025 | -0.2% | 1.3% | -0.1% |
| 5/6/2025 | 1.0% | -3.4% | -1.9% |
| 2/4/2025 | -1.2% | 0.8% | 4.9% |
| 10/31/2024 | -0.5% | -0.0% | 6.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 11 | 10 |
| # Negative | 15 | 14 | 15 |
| Median Positive | 0.9% | 0.8% | 4.0% |
| Median Negative | -0.4% | -2.1% | -3.6% |
| Max Positive | 1.6% | 3.4% | 10.3% |
| Max Negative | -2.0% | -3.8% | -9.3% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/29/2026 | -2.0% | -3.8% | -4.5% |
| 5/5/2026 | -1.0% | -3.2% | -4.7% |
| 2/5/2026 | -1.2% | -0.2% | 3.0% |
| 10/30/2025 | -1.7% | -2.4% | -3.8% |
| 7/30/2025 | -0.2% | 1.3% | -0.1% |
| 5/6/2025 | 1.0% | -3.4% | -1.9% |
| 2/4/2025 | -1.2% | 0.8% | 4.9% |
| 10/31/2024 | -0.5% | -0.0% | 6.1% |
| 7/31/2024 | 0.5% | 3.4% | 9.4% |
| 5/1/2024 | -0.1% | 1.4% | -3.1% |
| 2/1/2024 | 1.3% | -3.2% | -1.9% |
| 10/31/2023 | -0.3% | 1.4% | 2.7% |
| 8/1/2023 | -0.3% | -2.6% | -4.1% |
| 5/1/2023 | -0.2% | -0.2% | -9.3% |
| 2/2/2023 | 0.0% | -3.4% | -4.8% |
| 11/1/2022 | 0.7% | -1.3% | 10.3% |
| 8/2/2022 | -0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| 5/2/2022 | -0.3% | 0.6% | 5.8% |
| 2/3/2022 | -0.4% | -1.9% | -0.8% |
| 11/2/2021 | 0.6% | -1.5% | -2.2% |
| 8/3/2021 | 1.0% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| 5/3/2021 | 0.9% | 0.5% | -3.6% |
| 2/4/2021 | -0.5% | -1.5% | -2.4% |
| 11/3/2020 | 1.1% | 0.7% | -6.6% |
| 8/4/2020 | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 11 | 10 |
| # Negative | 15 | 14 | 15 |
| Median Positive | 0.9% | 0.8% | 4.0% |
| Median Negative | -0.4% | -2.1% | -3.6% |
| Max Positive | 1.6% | 3.4% | 10.3% |
| Max Negative | -2.0% | -3.8% | -9.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/20/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/20/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/24/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/06/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/25/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/07/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/27/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/07/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/30/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 EPS | Reported | 5.51 | 5.56 | 5.61 | Affirmed | Guidance: 5.56 for 2026 | ||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 EPS | Reported | 5.51 | 5.56 | 5.61 | Affirmed | Guidance: 5.56 for 2026 | ||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 EPS | Reported | 5.51 | 5.56 | 5.61 | 6.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 5.22 for 2025 | |
| 2026-2030 EPS Growth | Reported | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.0% | ||||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/30/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 EPS | Reported | 5.17 | 5.22 | 5.27 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 5.22 for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 9/3/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Payne, Ulice JR | Direct | Sell | 8122026 | 105.58 | 980 | 103,468 | 2,068,128 | Form | |
| 2 | Krueger, Daniel | EVP WEC Infrastructure | Direct | Sell | 5202026 | 110.96 | 4,665 | 517,624 | 815,105 | Form |
| 3 | Payne, Ulice JR | Direct | Sell | 2252026 | 114.60 | 1,450 | 166,166 | 2,353,934 | Form | |
| 4 | Klappa, Gale E | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 115.44 | 3,180 | 367,099 | 31,930,704 | Form | |
| 5 | Klappa, Gale E | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 116.55 | 5,000 | 582,750 | 32,237,730 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Payne, Ulice JR | Direct | Sell | 8122026 | 105.58 | 980 | 103,468 | 2,068,128 | Form | |
| 2 | Krueger, Daniel | EVP WEC Infrastructure | Direct | Sell | 5202026 | 110.96 | 4,665 | 517,624 | 815,105 | Form |
| 3 | Payne, Ulice JR | Direct | Sell | 2252026 | 114.60 | 1,450 | 166,166 | 2,353,934 | Form | |
| 4 | Klappa, Gale E | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 115.44 | 3,180 | 367,099 | 31,930,704 | Form | |
| 5 | Klappa, Gale E | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 116.55 | 5,000 | 582,750 | 32,237,730 | Form | |
| 6 | Klappa, Gale E | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 115.44 | 25,000 | 2,886,060 | 31,931,368 | Form | |
| 7 | Straka, Mary Beth | Sr. VP-Corp Comm & Inv Rel | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 115.50 | 2,815 | 325,131 | 543,663 | Form |
| 8 | Lauber, Scott J | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 2112026 | 110.70 | 8,089 | 895,462 | 7,394,897 | Form |
| 9 | Erickson, Joshua M | VP and Deputy General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 112.47 | 100 | 11,247 | 290,843 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Sep 23, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Talaria Asset Management Pty Ltd | $33.7 Mil | 6.8% | 12 | ADD +130.8% | 13F |
| Ovata Capital Management Ltd | $33.1 Mil | 4.6% | 38 | New | 13F |
| HFR Wealth Management, LLC | $11.8 Mil | 2.9% | 49 | Hold | 13F |
| Cincinnati Specialty Underwriters Insurance CO | $11.0 Mil | 2.7% | 46 | Hold | 13F |
| Soroban Capital Partners LP | $138.7 Mil | 1.0% | 27 | TRIM -13.7% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soroban Capital Partners LP | $138.7 Mil | 1.0% | 27 | TRIM -13.7% | 13F |
| Talaria Asset Management Pty Ltd | $33.7 Mil | 6.8% | 12 | ADD +130.8% | 13F |
| Ovata Capital Management Ltd | $33.1 Mil | 4.6% | 38 | New | 13F |
| HFR Wealth Management, LLC | $11.8 Mil | 2.9% | 49 | Hold | 13F |
| Cincinnati Specialty Underwriters Insurance CO | $11.0 Mil | 2.7% | 46 | Hold | 13F |
WEC Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
WEC is executing a $37.5 billion plan to serve 3.9 gigawatts of new, contracted data center demand. This provides a clear path to accelerated earnings growth from 2028. The primary uncertainty is the operational risk of this massive build-out, which requires successful execution and prudent financing to realize its full potential.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Regulated Utility(Rate Base x Allowed Rate of Return) + Pass-through Fuel & Purchased Power Costs. Accelerated rate base growth from the $37.5 billion capital plan, especially the portion serving Very Large Customers (VLCs) under a tariff with a premium ROE.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests yes, with a massive, de-risked capital plan underway to meet contracted demand from hyperscale data centers, fundamentally accelerating its long-term growth profile.
- The 5-year capital plan totals $37.5 billion for 2026-2030.
- The plan is driven by 3.9 gigawatts of new data center demand.
- New projects have a premium approved return on equity of 10.48% to 10.98%.
- Company projects long-term earnings growth of 7% to 8% annually through 2030.
PRIMARY RISK
The scale of the $37.5 billion plan creates significant risk of construction delays or cost overruns. The company's balance sheet is already stressed, with negative free cash flow of $1.4 billion and net debt at 5.41 times operating income, making it vulnerable to execution missteps.
- Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow is negative $1.4 billion.
- Net debt is 5.41 times trailing-twelve-month EBITDA.
- The company plans to issue about $1.1 billion of common equity in 2026.
- A key data center customer, Oracle, has a pending court case on tariff requirements.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Weather-Normalized Retail Electric Sales Growth (excluding Very Large Customers) | 1.2% year-over-year for Q2 2026 - Stagnant | The core underlying electricity demand from existing residential and commercial customers, excluding the new large data centers, has been consistently weak, growing 1.2%. This indicates a stagnant legacy business, underscoring that all of the company's growth is dependent on the new data center projects. |
| 5-Year Capital Investment Plan | $37.5 billion for the 2026-2030 period - Accelerating | The capital plan has been repeatedly revised upwards, driven entirely by the need to serve massive new electricity demand from data center customers like Microsoft and Vantage/Oracle. Management noted on its Q2 2026 call that by the end of 2030, approximately 15% of the company's asset base will be dedicated to these very large customers, representing a significant strategic shift. |
| Total Electric Customers | (Year-End 2025) | Indicates the size of the customer base in the Wisconsin segment's electric utility operations. Steady growth reflects positive economic conditions in the service territory. |
| Total Natural Gas Customers (Wisconsin Segment) | (Year-End 2025) | Indicates the size of the customer base for natural gas operations in Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. |
Contracted Growth vs. Execution Strain
BULL VIEW
Bulls focus on the 3.9 gigawatts of de-risked demand, secured under a long-term, high-return tariff structure that provides a clear path to 7-8% annual earnings growth.
CORE TENSION
Can the high-return 3.9 GW demand pipeline offset the financial strain of the $37.5B build-out, which has recently pressured the stock?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the plan's viability, as management has secured the critical regulatory tariff and is executing its stated financing plan on schedule.
BEAR VIEW
Bears see a utility with negative $1.4 billion free cash flow and high leverage undertaking a complex $37.5 billion build-out, creating significant risk of value-destructive delays or overruns.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
on our third quarter call | Updated Capital Plan Release Watch: The company will provide a detailed update to its multi-year capital and financing plans. |
11/3/2026 | Peer Earnings Read-Across Watch: Commentary from peers on cost inflation, regulatory headwinds, or changes in industrial and commercial demand trends. |
11/4/2026 | Peer Alliant Energy Earnings Watch: Peer Alliant Energy (LNT) is scheduled to report earnings. |
by the end of the year | Illinois Rate Case Decision Watch: A decision is expected from the Illinois Commerce Commission on the rate request for test year 2027. |
by the end of the year | Wisconsin Rate Case Orders Watch: Final orders are expected from the Wisconsin Public Service Commission on the rate request for 2027 and 2028. |
by the end of the year | Illinois Rate Case Outcome Watch: The final order from the Illinois Commerce Commission, specifically the allowed return and recovery mechanism for the PRP. |
on our third quarter call | Capital Plan Update Disappointment Watch: The size of the new 5-year capital plan and the associated long-term EPS growth rate guidance. |
No set date | Oracle Legal Challenge Watch: Court filings or a ruling in the case brought by Oracle regarding the VLC tariff's financial security requirements. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-08-10 | Corporate Responsibility Report Released Details: The company released its 2025 Corporate Responsibility Report, highlighting a $37.5 billion capital plan for 2026 through 2030 and a 53% reduction in CO2 emissions from 2005 levels. (ART-1) | - |
2026-07-29 | Second Quarter Results Reported Details: The company reported Q2 2026 net income of $299.2 million, or 91 cents per share, and reaffirmed its full-year 2026 earnings guidance. (ART-2, G-1) | - |
2026-07-29 | Illinois Regulatory Settlements Approved Details: In May, the Illinois Commerce Commission approved settlements resolving all open dockets related to the Rider QIP and bad debt riders, covering 12 cases. (T-1) | - |
2026-05-05 | First Quarter Results Reported Details: | - |
2026-05-05 | Wisconsin Rate Requests Filed Details: The company filed rate requests with the Wisconsin Commission for forward-looking test years 2027 and 2028 to support infrastructure investments. (T-2) | - |
2026-03-28 | Analyst Consensus Rating Reported Details: An average rating of "Moderate Buy" was reported from eighteen brokerages covering the stock, with eight buy ratings, eight hold ratings, and one sell rating. (REWIND-1) | - |
Position Sizing
5% - 7%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: WEC trades at roughly 18% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 13% for the S&P 500 (1.4x the market), around the 71st percentile of its own trailing year. A 5% - 7% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
AEE - a business partner
Higher-Margin Peera business partner offers a potentially more stable financial profile, with a trailing gross margin of 50.4% compared to WEC's 41.8%, suggesting a more profitable core business.
XEL - Xcel Energy
Alternative Data Center PlayXcel Energy provides exposure to the same data center growth theme but in different geographies and is pursuing an even larger potential customer pipeline.
A regulated utility transforming into a high-growth infrastructure company by building the power backbone for the AI data center boom in the Midwest.
WEC Energy is no longer a typical slow-growth utility. It is strategically positioned to capture a massive, multi-gigawatt increase in electricity demand from hyperscale data centers being built in its Wisconsin service territory by customers like Microsoft and Oracle. This demand is locked in under a new, protective, and premium-return tariff structure. The company is executing a $37.5 billion, five-year capital plan to build the required generation, transforming its rate base and accelerating its earnings growth profile for the foreseeable future.
Announcements of new data center projects or expansions in the service territory; timely regulatory approvals for new generation projects and rate requests; on-schedule execution of the capital plan.
Significant delays or cancellations of data center projects; regulatory pushback or disallowance of capital costs related to the data center build-out; major cost overruns or execution failures on key generation projects.
Quarter-to-quarter earnings volatility due to weather; minor fluctuations in core residential and commercial sales.
Repricing Catalyst
The market's increasing recognition of the scale and predictability of the data center-driven load growth and the company's ability to translate this into accelerated, regulated earnings growth, particularly from 2028 onward.
Wisconsin
$7.6B TTM (75% of Total)What It Is
Generates and distributes electricity and distributes natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers in Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.
Who Pays & How
Residential and business customers pay for essential electricity and gas service. A key growth driver is new, very large customers (VLCs) like Microsoft and Oracle, who are building massive data centers and require gigawatts of new, reliable power, for which they pay under a specific tariff.
Competition
Illinois
$1.6B TTM (16% of Total)What It Is
Distributes natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers in Chicago (Peoples Gas) and its northern suburbs (North Shore Gas).
Who Pays & How
Homeowners and businesses in the Chicago area pay for natural gas for heating and other uses. The service is essential, particularly in winter months.
Competition
Other states
$558M TTM (6% of Total)What It Is
Distributes natural gas to customers in Minnesota (Minnesota Energy Resources) and Michigan (Michigan Gas Utilities).
Who Pays & How
Residential and business customers in parts of Minnesota and Michigan pay for natural gas distribution services.
Competition
Non-Utility Energy Infrastructure
$787M TTM (8% of Total)What It Is
This segment includes We Power (owns and leases generation plants to WE), Bluewater (owns natural gas storage facilities), and WECI (owns a fleet of renewable generation facilities in multiple states). WECI sells energy produced to third parties.
Who Pays & How
WE pays We Power via long-term leases, with costs recovered in regulated rates. WEC's Wisconsin utilities pay Bluewater for gas storage services. For WECI, creditworthy counterparties pay for renewable energy under long-term offtake agreements.
Competition
Industry Resources
| Utilities Resources |
| Data.gov Energy Infrastructure |
| Data.gov Energy Resources |
| Utility Dive |
| Electric Utilities Resources |
| T&D World |
| Edison Electric Institute (EEI) |
| Smart Energy International |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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