Pinnacle West Capital (PNW)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $88.77 | Market Cap: $10.6 BilSector: Utilities | Industry: Multi-Utilities
Pinnacle West Capital (PNW)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $88.77Market Cap: $10.6 BilSector: UtilitiesIndustry: Multi-Utilities
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, Renewable Energy Transition, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Smart Metering, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, Renewable Energy Transition, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Smart Metering, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
PNW Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points that likely contributed to Pinnacle West Capital (PNW) stock's approximate 0.2% movement from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Mizuho Downgrade in September.
On September 9, 2025, Mizuho downgraded Pinnacle West Capital's stock rating from "Buy" to "Hold" and simultaneously lowered its price target from $102 to $90. This analyst action likely exerted downward pressure on the stock during the period.
2. Varied Analyst Rating Updates Throughout October.
Throughout October 2025, several analyst firms updated their stances on PNW. On October 28, 2025, Wells Fargo initiated a "Hold" rating with a $92 price target, and RBC Capital also initiated a "Hold" with a $99 price target. Other firms like Keybanc and Barclays maintained their "Buy" and "Hold" ratings, respectively, with slight adjustments to their price targets. These mixed and minor adjustments in ratings and price targets contributed to ongoing, small fluctuations rather than a strong directional move.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PNW Return | -8% | -8% | 13% | -1% | 23% | 9% | 28% |
| Peers Return | 0% | 22% | 1% | -7% | 23% | 18% | 67% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PNW Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 58% | 50% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 58% | 55% | 58% | 62% | 64% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PNW Max Drawdown | -29% | -18% | -12% | -5% | -6% | -4% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -31% | -8% | -15% | -20% | -7% | -4% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DUK, CNP, CMS, NI, NEE. See PNW Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PNW | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 660 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -39.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -19.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 185 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -55.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 124.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1194 days | 1480 days |
Compare to DUK, CNP, CMS, NI, NEE
In The Past
Pinnacle West Capital's stock fell -32.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/10/2021. A -32.2% loss requires a 47.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
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Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PNW. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.7% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.3% | 9.3% | -3.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.7% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.3% | 9.3% | -3.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Pinnacle West Capital
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Financials
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Returns
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Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11032025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2252025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |