Pinnacle West Capital (PNW)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $88.99 | Market Cap: $10.6 BilSector: Utilities | Industry: Multi-Utilities
Pinnacle West Capital (PNW)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $88.99Market Cap: $10.6 BilSector: UtilitiesIndustry: Multi-Utilities
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.4%, Dividend Yield is 3.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.3% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.2%, Dist 3Y High is -4.2% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 133% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -17%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -40% | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 17% | Key risksPNW key risks include [1] unpredictable regulatory outcomes from its publicly elected Arizona Corporation Commission and [2] significant grid strain and infrastructure threats from Arizona-specific climate volatility, Show more. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, Renewable Energy Transition, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Smart Metering, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.4%, Dividend Yield is 3.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.3% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 17% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, Renewable Energy Transition, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Smart Metering, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.2%, Dist 3Y High is -4.2% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -17%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -40% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 133% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14% |
| Key risksPNW key risks include [1] unpredictable regulatory outcomes from its publicly elected Arizona Corporation Commission and [2] significant grid strain and infrastructure threats from Arizona-specific climate volatility, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
PNW Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why Pinnacle West Capital (PNW) stock moved from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:
1. Strong Third-Quarter 2025 Earnings and Raised Guidance. Pinnacle West Capital reported third-quarter 2025 earnings that exceeded analyst expectations, with an EPS of $3.39 against a forecast of $3.15. The company also raised its full-year 2025 EPS guidance, signaling a more optimistic financial outlook for the near term.
2. Robust Customer and Sales Growth. The company highlighted increased customer usage and robust customer growth, particularly in Arizona, which contributed to stronger sales and higher transmission service revenues. This growth, alongside weather-related impacts, underpinned the revised 2025 earnings guidance and 2026 outlook.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PNW Return | -8% | -8% | 13% | -1% | 23% | 8% | 27% |
| Peers Return | -7% | 15% | 3% | -2% | 17% | 7% | 36% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PNW Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 58% | 50% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 53% | 55% | 57% | 58% | 65% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PNW Max Drawdown | -29% | -18% | -12% | -5% | -6% | -4% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -33% | -10% | -12% | -14% | -12% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SRE, EIX, XEL, EVRG, IDA. See PNW Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PNW | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 660 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -39.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -19.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 185 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -55.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 124.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,194 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to DUK, CNP, CMS, NI, NEE
In The Past
Pinnacle West Capital's stock fell -32.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/10/2021. A -32.2% loss requires a 47.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PNW. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.9% | -0.9% | -2.4% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.9% | 4.9% | -0.8% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.6% | 5.6% | -3.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.9% | -0.9% | -2.4% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.9% | 4.9% | -0.8% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.6% | 5.6% | -3.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Pinnacle West Capital
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 80.19 |
| Mkt Cap | 19.9 |
| Rev LTM | 9,795 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,079 |
| FCF LTM | -720 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -955 |
| CFO LTM | 3,322 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,026 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 21.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 19.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 33.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 28.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -18.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -15.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 19.9 |
| P/S | 3.2 |
| P/EBIT | 13.6 |
| P/E | 21.6 |
| P/CFO | 9.4 |
| Total Yield | 6.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -6.2% |
| D/E | 0.8 |
| Net D/E | 0.8 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 3.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 12.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 9.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 26.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 0.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -2.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -46.4% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/3/2025 | 1.1% | -0.6% | 0.1% |
| 8/6/2025 | 0.2% | 0.1% | -3.3% |
| 2/25/2025 | 1.1% | 2.2% | -0.7% |
| 11/6/2024 | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.6% |
| 8/1/2024 | 4.0% | 0.7% | 2.9% |
| 2/27/2024 | -0.4% | -0.5% | 3.9% |
| 11/2/2023 | -0.5% | -6.1% | -0.6% |
| 8/3/2023 | -4.0% | -5.6% | -6.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 14 | 12 |
| # Negative | 7 | 7 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 1.7% | 2.6% | 4.7% |
| Median Negative | -1.0% | -5.6% | -3.3% |
| Max Positive | 6.8% | 8.6% | 16.1% |
| Max Negative | -4.0% | -7.4% | -35.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11032025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2252025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |