Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9%, Dividend Yield is 2.5%
Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -6.0%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 77%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%
  Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.5%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, CFO LTM is 2.2 Bil
  Key risks
NI key risks include [1] regulatory and political pressure jeopardizing specific strategic initiatives like the Genco spinoff, Show more.
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 20%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Wind Energy Development, and Battery Storage & Grid Modernization.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9%, Dividend Yield is 2.5%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, CFO LTM is 2.2 Bil
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 20%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Wind Energy Development, and Battery Storage & Grid Modernization.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -6.0%
6 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 77%
7 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.5%
8 Key risks
NI key risks include [1] regulatory and political pressure jeopardizing specific strategic initiatives like the Genco spinoff, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

NI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

I am unable to provide information on stock movements for the specified future time period of August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
NI Return-15%25%3%0%43%16%82%
Peers Return-4%12%4%-6%20%13%43%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NI Win Rate42%42%50%67%75%58% 
Peers Win Rate55%52%60%58%58%65% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NI Max Drawdown-25%-7%-10%-13%-5%-3% 
Peers Max Drawdown-31%-8%-11%-19%-6%-8% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DUK, D, SO, AEP, SRE. See NI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventNIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-28.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven40.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven325 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-31.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven44.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven711 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-18.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven22.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven190 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-69.0%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven222.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,195 days1,480 days

Compare to PCG, AEE, NEE, SRE, D


In The Past

NiSource's stock fell -28.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/6/2022. A -28.6% loss requires a 40.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About NiSource (NI)

Better Bets than NiSource (NI)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to NI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PEG_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025PEGPublic Service EnterpriseMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.9%-0.9%-2.4%
PCG_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025PCGPG&EDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-0.8%
AES_9052025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09052025AESAESDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.7%6.7%-3.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PEG_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025PEGPublic Service EnterpriseMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.9%-0.9%-2.4%
PCG_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025PCGPG&EDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-0.8%
AES_9052025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09052025AESAESDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.7%6.7%-3.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for NiSource

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NIDUKDSOAEPSREMedian
NameNiSource Duke Ene.Dominion.Southern American.Sempra  
Mkt Price41.25117.4360.1187.03114.7186.7886.91
Mkt Cap19.591.451.395.961.456.759.0
Rev LTM6,32731,65915,22728,91221,25713,71118,242
Op Inc LTM1,7408,5834,5287,4265,3003,0864,914
FCF LTM-536-921-8,071-1,823-1,736-6,210-1,779
FCF 3Y Avg-722-2,122-5,691-1,031-1,932-4,947-2,027
CFO LTM2,19012,0494,6099,3786,8584,8075,833
CFO 3Y Avg1,91310,5395,6778,6105,8344,0525,755

Growth & Margins

NIDUKDSOAEPSREMedian
NameNiSource Duke Ene.Dominion.Southern American.Sempra  
Rev Chg LTM19.6%4.8%5.3%9.4%8.4%6.1%7.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg5.1%5.2%7.5%1.3%4.2%-1.3%4.6%
Rev Chg Q18.3%4.8%9.3%7.5%10.9%13.5%10.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.2%1.2%2.2%1.9%2.9%2.8%2.5%
Op Mgn LTM27.5%27.1%29.7%25.7%24.9%22.5%26.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg25.5%25.1%27.0%23.7%21.6%21.0%24.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.5%0.3%1.2%0.3%0.1%-0.3%0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM34.6%38.1%30.3%32.4%32.3%35.1%33.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg32.9%34.6%38.4%31.6%29.0%27.8%32.2%
FCF/Rev LTM-8.5%-2.9%-53.0%-6.3%-8.2%-45.3%-8.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-12.7%-7.1%-38.2%-3.7%-9.7%-35.6%-11.2%

Valuation

NIDUKDSOAEPSREMedian
NameNiSource Duke Ene.Dominion.Southern American.Sempra  
Mkt Cap19.591.451.395.961.456.759.0
P/S3.23.03.43.62.84.33.3
P/EBIT11.510.410.112.510.617.811.1
P/E22.819.322.823.416.427.222.8
P/CFO9.38.011.311.18.812.210.2
Total Yield6.9%6.0%8.7%7.1%9.4%5.8%7.0%
Dividend Yield2.5%0.8%4.3%2.9%3.3%2.2%2.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-5.1%-2.9%-12.2%-1.3%-4.3%-9.4%-4.7%
D/E0.80.90.90.70.80.60.8
Net D/E0.80.90.90.70.80.60.8

Returns

NIDUKDSOAEPSREMedian
NameNiSource Duke Ene.Dominion.Southern American.Sempra  
1M Rtn-4.5%-6.2%-1.2%-3.9%-7.3%-5.2%-4.8%
3M Rtn4.8%-2.2%2.0%-4.2%7.5%6.5%3.4%
6M Rtn6.4%4.3%13.5%-0.2%15.2%19.4%10.0%
12M Rtn17.1%12.8%17.5%8.0%29.1%3.1%15.0%
3Y Rtn67.8%31.8%19.1%41.3%36.0%22.4%33.9%
1M Excs Rtn-5.2%-6.9%-1.9%-4.7%-8.0%-5.9%-5.6%
3M Excs Rtn2.1%-3.0%0.4%-5.4%7.3%5.4%1.2%
6M Excs Rtn-6.0%-8.1%1.1%-12.6%2.8%7.0%-2.4%
12M Excs Rtn5.0%0.7%5.5%-3.0%17.0%-10.6%2.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-6.0%-39.2%-52.0%-30.3%-38.0%-52.1%-38.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Northern Indiana Public Service Company LLC (NIPSCO) Operations13,963    
Columbia Operations13,664    
Corporate and Other3,4501,7581,8242,1642,408
Electric Operations 7,9937,1796,4436,028
Gas Distribution Operations 16,98615,15413,43314,224
Total31,07726,73724,15722,04022,660


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity11,792,411
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520252.9%
Average Daily Volume3,234,577
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.65
Basic Shares Quantity472,100,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.5%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/29/2025-2.1%-0.5%1.5%
8/6/2025-2.5%-1.3%-7.2%
5/7/20252.8%-3.9%-0.9%
2/12/20251.0%4.3%0.6%
10/30/20242.1%3.1%12.0%
8/7/20240.5%2.3%8.0%
5/8/2024-1.1%-0.6%-1.8%
2/21/20240.9%0.0%3.2%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive151411
# Negative7811
Median Positive1.0%1.2%4.8%
Median Negative-1.1%-0.8%-2.2%
Max Positive2.8%7.6%12.0%
Max Negative-2.5%-3.9%-11.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251029202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024212202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241030202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023221202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231101202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022222202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221107202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022504202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021223202210-K 12/31/2021