Stubhub (STUB)
Market Price (9/22/2026): $5.76 | Market Cap: $2.2 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Interactive Media & Services
Stubhub (STUB)
Market Price (9/22/2026): $5.76Market Cap: $2.2 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Interactive Media & Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31% Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 27% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Experiential Retail, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -111%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -145% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -1.4 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -70% Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 80% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -83% Key risksSTUB key risks include [1] a UK regulatory investigation into its pricing practices carrying the threat of fines up to 10% of global turnover and [2] multiple US securities class-action lawsuits alleging misleading IPO disclosures. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 27% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Experiential Retail, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -111%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -145% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -1.4 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -70% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 80% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -83% |
| Key risksSTUB key risks include [1] a UK regulatory investigation into its pricing practices carrying the threat of fines up to 10% of global turnover and [2] multiple US securities class-action lawsuits alleging misleading IPO disclosures. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Updated on 9/1/2026
Stubhub (STUB) stock has lost about 40% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Cautious Fiscal Second Half 2026 Outlook Despite Strong Q2 Results.
StubHub Holdings, Inc. reported robust fiscal Q2 2026 results (ended June 30, 2026) on August 12, 2026, with record Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS) of $3.1 billion, representing a 34% year-over-year increase, and revenue of $573.1 million, up 33% year-over-year. The company also achieved a net income of $14.6 million, a significant turnaround from a net loss in the prior-year period. However, the stock experienced a sharp decline of 14.05% in after-hours trading following the earnings release. This negative reaction was primarily driven by the company's cautious guidance for the second half of fiscal year 2026; while full-year GMS guidance was raised to $10.1-$10.3 billion, the adjusted EBITDA guidance was reiterated at $400-$420 million. This suggested to investors that profitability might be pressured by anticipated higher operating costs or lower margins. Management specifically noted operational challenges and increased investments in customer support and fulfillment related to the World Cup, and projected low single-digit GMS growth in the second half as the World Cup demand boost was expected to fade.
2. Regulatory Pressures and Class Action Lawsuit.
StubHub faced increased legal and regulatory scrutiny in the specified period. On July 15, 2026, a proposed class action lawsuit was filed, accusing the company of misleading customers by presenting itself as a fan-to-fan marketplace while allegedly having undisclosed financial ties to professional ticket resellers, including its CEO's ownership interest in Andro Capital. Concurrently, the Washington D.C. council approved a "Resale Act" that imposes a 10% cap on ticket resale prices, a significant change given that secondary market tickets typically sell at a 65% premium. Citi, in response, reiterated a "Neutral" rating and a $9 price target for StubHub, estimating a potential $95 million reduction in the company's 2027 EBITDA if 20% of transactions are impacted by these new price limits. These developments introduced significant uncertainty regarding future revenue and profitability, contributing to negative investor sentiment.
Show more
Stubhub (STUB) stock has lost about 40% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Cautious Fiscal Second Half 2026 Outlook Despite Strong Q2 Results.
StubHub Holdings, Inc. reported robust fiscal Q2 2026 results (ended June 30, 2026) on August 12, 2026, with record Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS) of $3.1 billion, representing a 34% year-over-year increase, and revenue of $573.1 million, up 33% year-over-year. The company also achieved a net income of $14.6 million, a significant turnaround from a net loss in the prior-year period. However, the stock experienced a sharp decline of 14.05% in after-hours trading following the earnings release. This negative reaction was primarily driven by the company's cautious guidance for the second half of fiscal year 2026; while full-year GMS guidance was raised to $10.1-$10.3 billion, the adjusted EBITDA guidance was reiterated at $400-$420 million. This suggested to investors that profitability might be pressured by anticipated higher operating costs or lower margins. Management specifically noted operational challenges and increased investments in customer support and fulfillment related to the World Cup, and projected low single-digit GMS growth in the second half as the World Cup demand boost was expected to fade.
2. Regulatory Pressures and Class Action Lawsuit.
StubHub faced increased legal and regulatory scrutiny in the specified period. On July 15, 2026, a proposed class action lawsuit was filed, accusing the company of misleading customers by presenting itself as a fan-to-fan marketplace while allegedly having undisclosed financial ties to professional ticket resellers, including its CEO's ownership interest in Andro Capital. Concurrently, the Washington D.C. council approved a "Resale Act" that imposes a 10% cap on ticket resale prices, a significant change given that secondary market tickets typically sell at a 65% premium. Citi, in response, reiterated a "Neutral" rating and a $9 price target for StubHub, estimating a potential $95 million reduction in the company's 2027 EBITDA if 20% of transactions are impacted by these new price limits. These developments introduced significant uncertainty regarding future revenue and profitability, contributing to negative investor sentiment.
Show more
Updated on 9/1/2026
Stubhub (STUB) stock has lost about 40% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Cautious Fiscal Second Half 2026 Outlook Despite Strong Q2 Results.
StubHub Holdings, Inc. reported robust fiscal Q2 2026 results (ended June 30, 2026) on August 12, 2026, with record Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS) of $3.1 billion, representing a 34% year-over-year increase, and revenue of $573.1 million, up 33% year-over-year. The company also achieved a net income of $14.6 million, a significant turnaround from a net loss in the prior-year period. However, the stock experienced a sharp decline of 14.05% in after-hours trading following the earnings release. This negative reaction was primarily driven by the company's cautious guidance for the second half of fiscal year 2026; while full-year GMS guidance was raised to $10.1-$10.3 billion, the adjusted EBITDA guidance was reiterated at $400-$420 million. This suggested to investors that profitability might be pressured by anticipated higher operating costs or lower margins. Management specifically noted operational challenges and increased investments in customer support and fulfillment related to the World Cup, and projected low single-digit GMS growth in the second half as the World Cup demand boost was expected to fade.
2. Regulatory Pressures and Class Action Lawsuit.
StubHub faced increased legal and regulatory scrutiny in the specified period. On July 15, 2026, a proposed class action lawsuit was filed, accusing the company of misleading customers by presenting itself as a fan-to-fan marketplace while allegedly having undisclosed financial ties to professional ticket resellers, including its CEO's ownership interest in Andro Capital. Concurrently, the Washington D.C. council approved a "Resale Act" that imposes a 10% cap on ticket resale prices, a significant change given that secondary market tickets typically sell at a 65% premium. Citi, in response, reiterated a "Neutral" rating and a $9 price target for StubHub, estimating a potential $95 million reduction in the company's 2027 EBITDA if 20% of transactions are impacted by these new price limits. These developments introduced significant uncertainty regarding future revenue and profitability, contributing to negative investor sentiment.
3. Dilution from Increased Share Count.
The company's fiscal Q2 2026 financial report also revealed a notable increase in its Class A shares outstanding. As of June 30, 2026, StubHub Holdings, Inc. reported 355,269,216 Class A shares issued and outstanding, an increase from 321,320,641 shares at December 31, 2025. This rise in the number of shares, coupled with a negative quarterly income attributable to common stockholders of $40 thousand, can dilute the ownership percentage of existing shareholders. This dilution negatively impacts per-share metrics, contributing to a downward pressure on the stock price.
Show less
Stubhub (STUB) stock has lost about 40% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Cautious Fiscal Second Half 2026 Outlook Despite Strong Q2 Results.
StubHub Holdings, Inc. reported robust fiscal Q2 2026 results (ended June 30, 2026) on August 12, 2026, with record Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS) of $3.1 billion, representing a 34% year-over-year increase, and revenue of $573.1 million, up 33% year-over-year. The company also achieved a net income of $14.6 million, a significant turnaround from a net loss in the prior-year period. However, the stock experienced a sharp decline of 14.05% in after-hours trading following the earnings release. This negative reaction was primarily driven by the company's cautious guidance for the second half of fiscal year 2026; while full-year GMS guidance was raised to $10.1-$10.3 billion, the adjusted EBITDA guidance was reiterated at $400-$420 million. This suggested to investors that profitability might be pressured by anticipated higher operating costs or lower margins. Management specifically noted operational challenges and increased investments in customer support and fulfillment related to the World Cup, and projected low single-digit GMS growth in the second half as the World Cup demand boost was expected to fade.
2. Regulatory Pressures and Class Action Lawsuit.
StubHub faced increased legal and regulatory scrutiny in the specified period. On July 15, 2026, a proposed class action lawsuit was filed, accusing the company of misleading customers by presenting itself as a fan-to-fan marketplace while allegedly having undisclosed financial ties to professional ticket resellers, including its CEO's ownership interest in Andro Capital. Concurrently, the Washington D.C. council approved a "Resale Act" that imposes a 10% cap on ticket resale prices, a significant change given that secondary market tickets typically sell at a 65% premium. Citi, in response, reiterated a "Neutral" rating and a $9 price target for StubHub, estimating a potential $95 million reduction in the company's 2027 EBITDA if 20% of transactions are impacted by these new price limits. These developments introduced significant uncertainty regarding future revenue and profitability, contributing to negative investor sentiment.
3. Dilution from Increased Share Count.
The company's fiscal Q2 2026 financial report also revealed a notable increase in its Class A shares outstanding. As of June 30, 2026, StubHub Holdings, Inc. reported 355,269,216 Class A shares issued and outstanding, an increase from 321,320,641 shares at December 31, 2025. This rise in the number of shares, coupled with a negative quarterly income attributable to common stockholders of $40 thousand, can dilute the ownership percentage of existing shareholders. This dilution negatively impacts per-share metrics, contributing to a downward pressure on the stock price.
Show less
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -39.7% change in STUB stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/21/2026 was primarily driven by a -41.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 9.86 | 5.95 | -39.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,794 | 1,936 | 8.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.0 | 1.2 | -41.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 359 | 379 | -5.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -39.7% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| STUB | -39.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.5% | 25.4% |
| Sector (XLC) | -0.6% | 19.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -37.8% change in STUB stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/21/2026 was primarily driven by a -41.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 9.57 | 5.95 | -37.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,596 | 1,936 | 21.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.0 | 1.2 | -41.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 329 | 379 | -13.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -37.8% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| STUB | -37.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.4% | 27.2% |
| Sector (XLC) | -2.2% | 19.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| STUB | ||
| Market (SPY) | 21.2% | 26.3% |
| Sector (XLC) | 4.3% | 22.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| STUB | ||
| Market (SPY) | 78.3% | 26.3% |
| Sector (XLC) | 75.2% | 22.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| STUB Return | - | - | - | - | -38% | -56% | -73% |
| Peers Return | 35% | -47% | 79% | 21% | 6% | 1% | 67% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 104% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| STUB Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 50% | 44% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 31% | 67% | 50% | 48% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 44% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| STUB Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | -63% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -32% | -55% | -31% | -32% | -38% | -41% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: Z, ZIP, PAAI, GOOGL, META.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/21/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
STUB has limited trading history. Below is the Communication Services sector ETF (XLC) in its place.
| Event | XLC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -17.7% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 63 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -38.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 470 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -30.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 112 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -20.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.3% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 109 days | 105 days |
In The Past
State Street Communication Services Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -17.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 21.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
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STUB has limited trading history. Below is the Communication Services sector ETF (XLC) in its place.
| Event | XLC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -38.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 470 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -30.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 112 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -20.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.3% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 109 days | 105 days |
In The Past
State Street Communication Services Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -17.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 21.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Stubhub (STUB)
StubHub (STUB) operates the largest global secondary ticketing marketplace for live events, connecting fans with sellers of event tickets. The company's mission is to be the premier destination for accessing live events, bringing liquidity, transparency, and trust to what was historically a fragmented and opaque market. Its core business involves facilitating the buying and selling of tickets for a wide range of live events, including sports, concerts, and theater, primarily through its two main brands: StubHub in North America and viagogo internationally.
The company's main service is its technology-enabled marketplace, which offers end-to-end functionality for handling diverse event types and dynamically pricing tickets. StubHub leverages global distribution, robust data intelligence, and trusted brands to optimize outcomes for both buyers and sellers. Its primary customers are passionate fans seeking tickets and individuals or entities looking to efficiently sell their tickets, forming a powerful flywheel effect that generates significant revenue, profit, and cash flow.
StubHub has established a leadership position with durable competitive moats by creating scale and fostering an efficient monetization engine. Looking ahead, the company aims to expand its role beyond secondary sales into original ticket issuance, aspiring to be a comprehensive global marketplace for all ticketing transactions. This strategic vision leverages its existing technology, distribution networks, data capabilities, and strong brands to capture a larger market opportunity across the entire live events ecosystem.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Stubhub:
eBay for event tickets.
The secondary market equivalent of Ticketmaster.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Online Secondary Ticket Marketplace: An online platform facilitating the buying and selling of secondary market tickets for a wide range of live events and experiences globally, operating under the StubHub and viagogo brands.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Stubhub primarily serves individual customers. Its major customers can be categorized as follows:
- Ticket Purchasers (Fans and Event Attendees): These are individuals who use Stubhub's marketplace to find and buy tickets for a wide variety of live events, including concerts, sporting events, theater performances, and other experiences. They are the ultimate consumers seeking access to live entertainment.
- Ticket Sellers (Individuals and Small-scale Resellers): These are individuals or smaller entities who utilize Stubhub's platform to list and sell tickets they possess. This includes individuals who may have surplus tickets, can no longer attend an event, or those who engage in professional ticket reselling.
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Eric H. Baker, CEO / President
Eric H. Baker is the co-founder of StubHub, which he established in 2000 alongside Jeff Fluhr while attending Stanford Graduate School of Business. After departing StubHub in 2005, Baker founded the competing global ticketing platform viagogo in 2006, expanding into international markets. In 2019, he orchestrated viagogo's $4.05 billion acquisition of StubHub from eBay, subsequently becoming the CEO of the combined entity, StubHub Holdings, Inc. Prior to his entrepreneurial ventures, Baker worked at Bain Capital and McKinsey & Company.
Connie James, Chief Financial Officer
Connie James serves as the Chief Financial Officer of StubHub. In November 2025, she was noted for discussing the company's strategy related to interest earned on delayed refunds and seller payments.
Nayaab Islam, President
Nayaab Islam serves as the President of StubHub, having been named to the position in 2022. Previously, Islam held the title of Head of Product for StubHub.
Art Yegorov, Head of Technology / CTO
Art Yegorov serves as the Head of Technology, and also holds the title of CTO, at StubHub.
Jeff Zwelling, Chief Operating Officer
Jeff Zwelling serves as the Chief Operating Officer of StubHub.
AI Analysis | Feedback
StubHub (STUB) faces several key risks to its business, primarily stemming from its position in the secondary ticketing market. These include stringent regulatory scrutiny, intense competition and potential disintermediation by the primary ticketing market, and a fundamental reliance on the health and popularity of the live events industry.
Key Risks to StubHub's Business
- Regulatory Scrutiny and Changes: StubHub operates within a complex and evolving global regulatory landscape, facing extensive exposure to laws concerning data privacy, consumer protection, and ticketing across various jurisdictions. The company is subject to a wave of regulatory actions targeting secondary ticket resale, including proposed legislation for price caps and bans on speculative tickets in regions like California and New York. Regulators, such as the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), are also actively scrutinizing "drip pricing" practices, where additional fees are added late in the transaction process. StubHub has previously faced threats of legal action for allegedly misleading customers regarding ticket validity and availability, indicating an ongoing challenge in meeting consumer protection standards.
- Competition and Disintermediation from the Primary Ticketing Market: StubHub encounters intense competition from both primary and other secondary ticketing providers. The company's business model, which historically operates "without controlling the box office or venue access," makes it vulnerable to strategies employed by primary ticket sellers and event organizers. These entities, including major players like Live Nation (Ticketmaster), are increasingly moving into the secondary market or implementing policies that could limit the supply of tickets available to platforms like StubHub or make resales more difficult. StubHub's strategic pivot towards "original issuance ticketing" reflects its effort to mitigate this risk and achieve a more defensible position against competitors and regulators.
- Dependence on the Live Events Industry: The core of StubHub's business is heavily dependent on the volume, popularity, and availability of live events, such as sports, concerts, and theater. The company's revenue and profitability are directly tied to consumer demand for tickets to these events. Factors that could disrupt the live events industry, including economic downturns affecting discretionary spending, changes in consumer entertainment preferences, or unforeseen global events like pandemics, would directly reduce the supply of tickets and demand on StubHub's platform, thereby impacting its financial performance. The business also experiences pronounced seasonality linked to major sports and concert tours.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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AI Analysis | Feedback
StubHub operates in the live event ticketing market, primarily focusing on secondary ticketing and expanding into primary ticket sales.
Addressable Market Sizes for StubHub's Main Products and Services:
-
Global Secondary Ticketing Market for Live Events:
- In 2023, the global secondary tickets market was valued at approximately USD 2.85 billion and is projected to reach USD 6.56 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 9.7% during the forecast period (2024-2032).
- Other estimates place the global secondary ticketing market at USD 6.58 billion in 2024.
- Another valuation states the market reached USD 3.41 billion in 2026 and is projected to grow at an 8.74% CAGR to USD 5.19 billion by 2031.
-
North American Secondary Ticketing Market for Live Events:
- StubHub estimates the secondary ticketing market in North America to be approximately $17.5 billion.
- North America held the largest share of the global secondary tickets market at 45%. The U.S. alone accounted for approximately 41% of global resale transactions in 2024.
-
Global Primary Ticketing Market for Live Events:
- The primary issuance market is estimated to be $132 billion in 2024.
- The global online event ticketing market, which encompasses primary sales, was valued at USD 56.7 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 99.31 billion by 2032.
- Another estimate for the global online event ticketing market puts its value at USD 63.39 billion in 2024, with a projected growth to USD 117.04 billion by 2034.
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StubHub (STUB) anticipates several key drivers to fuel its revenue growth over the next two to three years:
- International Expansion: StubHub expects faster growth from its international markets, operated under the viagogo brand, which currently represent approximately 15% of its Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS). The company views this overseas business as a major long-term growth runway, aiming to replicate its domestic scale and deepen localization globally.
- North American Market Growth and Market Share Gains: The company plans to continue increasing its GMS within the North American market, where it holds a significant share, estimated at around 50% of the secondary ticketing market. This involves both overall market expansion and capturing additional market share.
- Strategic Shift to Product-Led, AI-Enabled Direct Issuance: StubHub is pivoting towards a product-led and AI-enabled supply strategy for direct ticket issuance. This initiative aims to reduce friction for partners and enable scalable self-serve distribution tools, prioritizing long-term, durable, and automated growth over immediate revenue gains in the near term.
- Improved Marketing Efficiency: The company is focused on refining its marketing efficiency to achieve higher returns while sustaining its market share gains. This optimization of sales and marketing expenses is expected to contribute to overall financial performance.
- Leveraging Core Resale Marketplace and Consistent Unit Economics: StubHub's core resale marketplace is projected to remain a significant driver, supported by consistent take rates (around 20% of GMS) and strong adjusted gross margins (above 80%). The company expects substantial profit growth from this established segment, demonstrating the structural strength of its business model.
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Share Issuance
- StubHub Holdings, Inc. completed its Initial Public Offering (IPO) on September 17, 2025, raising approximately $800 million by offering 34 million shares at $23.50 per share.
- The company stated its intention to use the proceeds primarily to reduce debt and for general corporate purposes.
- In March 2026, an S-8 filing was made for securities to be offered to employees through benefit plans.
Inbound Investments
- In 2020, Viagogo acquired StubHub from eBay for $4.05 billion, forming the combined entity that eventually went public as StubHub Holdings, Inc.
- StubHub Holdings is backed by various institutional investors and private equity firms, including Madrone Capital Partners and Bessemer Venture Partners, with Madrone Capital Partners holding 22.1% after the IPO.
Capital Expenditures
- For the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, StubHub Holdings reported approximately $35 million in capital expenditures, derived from $193 million in net cash provided by operating activities and $158 million in Free Cash Flow.
- These investments are strategically focused on growth initiatives, including a shift to a product-led direct issuance strategy and the launch of an advertising business.
Peer Outperformance in Interactive Media & Services
nullShare of Interactive Media & Services constituents that STUB has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
18%
of 40 industry peers · -67.8% return
3Y
—
insufficient peer history
5Y
—
insufficient peer history
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Median price return by industry across the Communication Services sector, ranked by 5Y. Interactive Media & Services is STUB's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wireless Telecommunication Services | 3 | -11.0% | 24.7% | 36.1% | ECHO 266% · TMUS 36% · SHEN -58% |
| Publishing | 5 | 22.2% | 24.8% | 17.0% | NYT 48% · NWSA 34% · SCHL 17% |
| Integrated Telecommunication Services | 21 | -15.1% | 4.9% | -24.5% | IQST 1452% · GSAT 226% · AD 154% |
| Movies & Entertainment | 25 | 1.3% | 63.8% | -36.6% | IMAX 224% · MSGS 124% · BATRA 119% |
| Alternative Carriers | 4 | 30.2% | 19.2% | -42.4% | IRDM 19% · UNIT -41% · LUMN -44% |
| Advertising | 19 | -19.3% | -5.2% | -61.6% | APP 352% · EVC 46% · OMC 25% |
| Broadcasting | 15 | -11.6% | -20.6% | -68.2% | FOXA 80% · NXST 29% · WBD 21% |
| Interactive Media & Services ← | 30 | -35.1% | -32.2% | -70.4% | GOOGL 155% · META 96% · EVER 12% |
| Interactive Home Entertainment | 8 | -51.6% | -51.6% | -86.9% | TTWO 45% · RBLX -37% · PINS -64% |
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are unfiltered by size in this render.
Latest Trefis Analyses
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|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 18.30 |
| Mkt Cap | 7.0 |
| Rev LTM | 2,373 |
| Op Inc LTM | 30 |
| FCF LTM | 409 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 287 |
| CFO LTM | 512 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 399 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 14.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 21.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.9% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 63.9% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 49.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -1.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 23.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.9% |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $5.95 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 2.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/17/2025 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -70.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $20.82 | $21.15 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -71.4% | -71.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 66.4% | 76.5% |
| Downside Capture | 364.00 | 296.59 |
| Upside Capture | -21.42 | 112.23 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 22.2% | 26.4% |
STUB Betas & Captures as of 8/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 3.01 | 1.53 | 1.08 | 1.19 | 0.06 | -0.26 |
| Up Beta | 4.23 | 2.59 | 1.97 | 1.01 | -0.20 | 0.19 |
| Down Beta | 2.30 | 0.16 | -0.75 | -0.21 | 0.21 | -0.11 |
| Up Capture | -15% | -125% | 36% | 106% | 76% | 7% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 7 | 13 | 24 | 55 | 107 | 107 |
| Down Capture | 648% | 421% | 225% | 194% | 174% | 97% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 27 | 37 | 67 | 127 | 127 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with STUB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STUB | -71.1% | 77.0% | -1.27 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | -2.3% | 15.8% | -0.34 | 22.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 18.2% | 13.0% | 1.01 | 26.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.8% | 29.3% | 0.59 | 10.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 47.0% | 20.6% | 1.76 | -9.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 13.6% | 0.15 | 21.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -31.0% | 44.4% | -0.71 | 28.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with STUB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STUB | -23.0% | 77.1% | -1.35 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 7.4% | 21.0% | 0.27 | 22.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.2% | 0.58 | 26.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.9% | 18.8% | 0.81 | 10.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.0% | 19.5% | 0.44 | -8.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.2% | 18.8% | -0.04 | 20.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 12.5% | 52.6% | 0.42 | 27.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with STUB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STUB | -12.3% | 77.1% | -1.35 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 9.5% | 22.1% | 0.48 | 22.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.6% | 17.9% | 0.74 | 26.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.1% | 16.4% | 0.61 | 10.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 18.1% | 0.38 | -8.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 20.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 62.7% | 66.2% | 1.03 | 27.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/14/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/12/2026 | -10.1% | -18.7% | -29.4% |
| 5/13/2026 | 13.7% | 33.0% | 52.4% |
| 3/4/2026 | -12.4% | -25.5% | -36.7% |
| 11/13/2025 | -21.0% | -45.2% | -29.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| # Negative | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Median Positive | 13.7% | 33.0% | 52.4% |
| Median Negative | -12.4% | -25.5% | -29.5% |
| Max Positive | 13.7% | 33.0% | 52.4% |
| Max Negative | -21.0% | -45.2% | -36.7% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/12/2026 | -10.1% | -18.7% | -29.4% |
| 5/13/2026 | 13.7% | 33.0% | 52.4% |
| 3/4/2026 | -12.4% | -25.5% | -36.7% |
| 11/13/2025 | -21.0% | -45.2% | -29.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| # Negative | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Median Positive | 13.7% | 33.0% | 52.4% |
| Median Negative | -12.4% | -25.5% | -29.5% |
| Max Positive | 13.7% | 33.0% | 52.4% |
| Max Negative | -21.0% | -45.2% | -36.7% |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 9/15/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/12/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 GMS | Reported | 10.10 Bil | 10.20 Bil | 10.30 Bil | 2.0% | Raised | Guidance: 10.00 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 400.00 Mil | 410.00 Mil | 420.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 410.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/13/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 GMS | Reported | 9.90 Bil | 10.00 Bil | 10.10 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 10.00 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 400.00 Mil | 410.00 Mil | 420.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 410.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 9/18/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam, Nayaab | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 9042026 | 6.69 | 24,554 | 164,183 | 53,568,305 | Form |
| 2 | Islam, Nayaab | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 9042026 | 6.66 | 110,409 | 735,059 | 53,499,448 | Form |
| 3 | Streams, Mark | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 9042026 | 6.39 | 135,589 | 866,576 | 7,835,458 | Form |
| 4 | Streams, Mark | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 9042026 | 6.23 | 29,951 | 186,661 | 8,485,545 | Form |
| 5 | Streams, Mark | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 8282026 | 6.88 | 2,530 | 17,406 | 9,573,630 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam, Nayaab | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 9042026 | 6.69 | 24,554 | 164,183 | 53,568,305 | Form |
| 2 | Islam, Nayaab | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 9042026 | 6.66 | 110,409 | 735,059 | 53,499,448 | Form |
| 3 | Streams, Mark | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 9042026 | 6.39 | 135,589 | 866,576 | 7,835,458 | Form |
| 4 | Streams, Mark | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 9042026 | 6.23 | 29,951 | 186,661 | 8,485,545 | Form |
| 5 | Streams, Mark | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 8282026 | 6.88 | 2,530 | 17,406 | 9,573,630 | Form |
| 6 | Islam, Nayaab | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 8272026 | 6.86 | 85,973 | 589,835 | 55,889,012 | Form |
| 7 | Islam, Nayaab | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 8272026 | 6.78 | 219,736 | 1,490,733 | 55,849,081 | Form |
| 8 | Streams, Mark | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 8252026 | 6.84 | 10,176 | 69,651 | 9,541,687 | Form |
| 9 | Streams, Mark | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 8252026 | 6.76 | 150,000 | 1,014,690 | 9,499,000 | Form |
| 10 | Streams, Mark | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 8252026 | 6.93 | 6,500 | 45,045 | 10,770,758 | Form |
| 11 | Fitzgerald, Scott Michael | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 8202026 | 7.08 | 84,970 | 601,953 | 781,986 | Form |
| 12 | James, Constance P | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 8202026 | 7.06 | 116,644 | 822,958 | 2,468,889 | Form |
| 13 | Islam, Nayaab | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 7092026 | 14.01 | 2,800 | 39,214 | 118,369,756 | Form |
| 14 | Streams, Mark | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 7092026 | 14.01 | 400 | 5,603 | 21,861,813 | Form |
| 15 | Streams, Mark | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 7062026 | 13.02 | 28,531 | 371,402 | 20,321,906 | Form |
| 16 | Islam, Nayaab | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 7062026 | 13.03 | 54,801 | 714,183 | 110,185,021 | Form |
| 17 | Streams, Mark | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 7062026 | 13.00 | 3,002 | 39,026 | 18,643,729 | Form |
| 18 | Islam, Nayaab | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 7062026 | 13.00 | 2,099 | 27,287 | 110,624,345 | Form |
| 19 | Streams, Mark | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 7012026 | 13.03 | 18,167 | 236,751 | 18,728,600 | Form |
| 20 | Islam, Nayaab | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 7012026 | 13.03 | 25,400 | 330,886 | 110,881,447 | Form |
| 21 | Streams, Mark | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 7012026 | 13.00 | 300 | 3,900 | 18,918,926 | Form |
| 22 | Islam, Nayaab | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 7012026 | 13.00 | 1,300 | 16,900 | 110,981,832 | Form |
| 23 | Islam, Nayaab | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 6262026 | 12.05 | 25,080 | 302,141 | 102,862,525 | Form |
| 24 | Islam, Nayaab | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 6162026 | 11.37 | 16,720 | 190,053 | 97,338,955 | Form |
| 25 | Fitzgerald, Scott Michael | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 10.33 | 867 | 8,960 | 2,249,212 | Form |
| 26 | Streams, Mark | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 9.04 | 232,567 | 2,101,545 | 10,066,447 | Form |
| 27 | Fitzgerald, Scott Michael | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 5132026 | 7.57 | 1,613 | 12,214 | 707,575 | Form |
| 28 | Fitzgerald, Scott Michael | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 4152026 | 6.50 | 1,619 | 10,518 | 628,488 | Form |
| 29 | Fitzgerald, Scott Michael | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 7.66 | 28,387 | 217,547 | 597,462 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Sep 22, 202613F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)
Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madrone Advisors, LLC | $472.9 Mil | 46.0% | 5 | Hold | 13F |
| Deer Management Co. LLC | $137.5 Mil | 22.1% | 10 | Hold | 13F |
| Entrust Global Partners L L C | $30.3 Mil | 6.6% | 6 | New | 13F |
| PointState Capital LP | $125.6 Mil | 2.9% | 44 | TRIM -18.9% | 13F |
| Insight Holdings Group, LLC | $21.4 Mil | 1.5% | 28 | Hold | 13F |
| Slate Path Capital LP | $9.1 Mil | 0.1% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madrone Advisors, LLC | $472.9 Mil | 46.0% | 5 | Hold | 13F |
| Deer Management Co. LLC | $137.5 Mil | 22.1% | 10 | Hold | 13F |
| PointState Capital LP | $125.6 Mil | 2.9% | 44 | TRIM -18.9% | 13F |
| Entrust Global Partners L L C | $30.3 Mil | 6.6% | 6 | New | 13F |
| Insight Holdings Group, LLC | $21.4 Mil | 1.5% | 28 | Hold | 13F |
| Slate Path Capital LP | $9.1 Mil | 0.1% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
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Industry Resources
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