Stubhub (STUB)
Market Price (6/26/2026): $11.53 | Market Cap: $4.1 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Interactive Media & Services
Stubhub (STUB)
Market Price (6/26/2026): $11.53Market Cap: $4.1 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Interactive Media & Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 7.2% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Experiential Retail, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -82%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -115% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -1.3 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -75% Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 82% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -49% Key risksSTUB key risks include [1] a UK regulatory investigation into its pricing practices carrying the threat of fines up to 10% of global turnover and [2] multiple US securities class-action lawsuits alleging misleading IPO disclosures. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 7.2% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Experiential Retail, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -82%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -115% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -1.3 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -75% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 82% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -49% |
| Key risksSTUB key risks include [1] a UK regulatory investigation into its pricing practices carrying the threat of fines up to 10% of global turnover and [2] multiple US securities class-action lawsuits alleging misleading IPO disclosures. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Stubhub (STUB) stock has gained about 20% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q1 2026 Financial Performance: StubHub Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: STUB), which has a fiscal year ending in December, reported robust results for fiscal Q1 2026 (ended March 31, 2026), announced on May 13, 2026. The company swung to a net income of $48.0 million, a significant improvement from a net loss of $22.2 million in the prior-year period. Revenue increased by 12% year-over-year to $446.0 million, surpassing analyst expectations of approximately $425.0 million. Adjusted EBITDA also saw a substantial 50% increase to $72.1 million, demonstrating improved profitability. This strong performance, especially the shift to profitability, significantly boosted investor confidence.
2. Reiteration of Positive Full-Year Guidance and Debt Reduction: Alongside its strong Q1 2026 results, StubHub reiterated its full-year 2026 outlook, projecting Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS) between $9.9 billion and $10.1 billion and adjusted EBITDA between $400 million and $420 million. The company also demonstrated strong cash flow generation, with net cash provided by operating activities increasing by 88% to $298.4 million and free cash flow rising by 92% to $290.6 million. Furthermore, StubHub made progress in strengthening its balance sheet by making an additional $100.0 million debt payment in May, signaling financial discipline and stability to the market.
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Stubhub (STUB) stock has gained about 20% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q1 2026 Financial Performance: StubHub Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: STUB), which has a fiscal year ending in December, reported robust results for fiscal Q1 2026 (ended March 31, 2026), announced on May 13, 2026. The company swung to a net income of $48.0 million, a significant improvement from a net loss of $22.2 million in the prior-year period. Revenue increased by 12% year-over-year to $446.0 million, surpassing analyst expectations of approximately $425.0 million. Adjusted EBITDA also saw a substantial 50% increase to $72.1 million, demonstrating improved profitability. This strong performance, especially the shift to profitability, significantly boosted investor confidence.
2. Reiteration of Positive Full-Year Guidance and Debt Reduction: Alongside its strong Q1 2026 results, StubHub reiterated its full-year 2026 outlook, projecting Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS) between $9.9 billion and $10.1 billion and adjusted EBITDA between $400 million and $420 million. The company also demonstrated strong cash flow generation, with net cash provided by operating activities increasing by 88% to $298.4 million and free cash flow rising by 92% to $290.6 million. Furthermore, StubHub made progress in strengthening its balance sheet by making an additional $100.0 million debt payment in May, signaling financial discipline and stability to the market.
3. Favorable Analyst Upgrades and Industry Outlook: Following the Q1 2026 earnings report, several analysts upgraded their ratings and increased price targets for StubHub. For instance, Guggenheim upgraded StubHub Holdings to a "Buy" rating and raised its price target to $12.50 from $8.50, citing the company's Q1 performance and upcoming tailwinds from the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Morgan Stanley and J.P. Morgan also raised their price targets to $11, from $8.75 and $10 respectively, reflecting a more optimistic outlook on the company's future prospects and the healthy operating environment for live events.
4. Resolution of Regulatory Headwinds and Strategic Initiatives: StubHub resolved a potentially significant legal issue by settling with the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) over deceptive fees for $10 million in April. This resolution removed a regulatory overhang, which was viewed positively by investors. Additionally, the company engaged in strategic initiatives, including a tie-up with a leading artificial intelligence (AI) developer and driving brand visibility through campaigns related to the upcoming 2026 FIFA World Cup, further enhancing its market position and growth narrative.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 20.4% change in STUB stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/25/2026 was primarily driven by a 17.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6252026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 9.57 | 11.52 | 20.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,596 | 1,794 | 12.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.0 | 2.3 | 17.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 329 | 359 | -8.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 20.4% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/25/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| STUB | 20.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.3% | 27.6% |
| Sector (XLC) | -10.3% | 22.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -1.8% change in STUB stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/25/2026 was primarily driven by a -8.4% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6252026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 11.73 | 11.52 | -1.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,596 | 1,794 | 12.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.4 | 2.3 | -4.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 329 | 359 | -8.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -1.8% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/25/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| STUB | -1.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.1% | 25.5% |
| Sector (XLC) | -7.9% | 24.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/25/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| STUB | ||
| Market (SPY) | 26.0% | 26.0% |
| Sector (XLC) | 5.4% | 25.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/25/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| STUB | ||
| Market (SPY) | 82.6% | 26.0% |
| Sector (XLC) | 75.3% | 25.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| STUB Return | - | - | - | - | -38% | -17% | -49% |
| Peers Return | 35% | -47% | 79% | 21% | 6% | -15% | 41% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 7% | 96% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| STUB Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 50% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 31% | 67% | 50% | 48% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| STUB Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | -62% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -32% | -55% | -31% | -32% | -38% | -41% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: Z, ZIP, PPLI, GOOGL, META.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/25/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
STUB has limited trading history. Below is the Communication Services sector ETF (XLC) in its place.
| Event | XLC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -17.7% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 63 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -38.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 470 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -30.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 112 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -20.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.3% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 109 days | 105 days |
In The Past
State Street Communication Services Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -17.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 21.5% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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STUB has limited trading history. Below is the Communication Services sector ETF (XLC) in its place.
| Event | XLC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -38.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 470 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -30.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 112 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -20.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.3% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 109 days | 105 days |
In The Past
State Street Communication Services Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -17.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 21.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Stubhub (STUB)
StubHub (STUB) operates the largest global secondary ticketing marketplace for live events, connecting fans with sellers of event tickets. The company's mission is to be the premier destination for accessing live events, bringing liquidity, transparency, and trust to what was historically a fragmented and opaque market. Its core business involves facilitating the buying and selling of tickets for a wide range of live events, including sports, concerts, and theater, primarily through its two main brands: StubHub in North America and viagogo internationally.
The company's main service is its technology-enabled marketplace, which offers end-to-end functionality for handling diverse event types and dynamically pricing tickets. StubHub leverages global distribution, robust data intelligence, and trusted brands to optimize outcomes for both buyers and sellers. Its primary customers are passionate fans seeking tickets and individuals or entities looking to efficiently sell their tickets, forming a powerful flywheel effect that generates significant revenue, profit, and cash flow.
StubHub has established a leadership position with durable competitive moats by creating scale and fostering an efficient monetization engine. Looking ahead, the company aims to expand its role beyond secondary sales into original ticket issuance, aspiring to be a comprehensive global marketplace for all ticketing transactions. This strategic vision leverages its existing technology, distribution networks, data capabilities, and strong brands to capture a larger market opportunity across the entire live events ecosystem.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Stubhub:
eBay for event tickets.
The secondary market equivalent of Ticketmaster.
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- Online Secondary Ticket Marketplace: An online platform facilitating the buying and selling of secondary market tickets for a wide range of live events and experiences globally, operating under the StubHub and viagogo brands.
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Stubhub primarily serves individual customers. Its major customers can be categorized as follows:
- Ticket Purchasers (Fans and Event Attendees): These are individuals who use Stubhub's marketplace to find and buy tickets for a wide variety of live events, including concerts, sporting events, theater performances, and other experiences. They are the ultimate consumers seeking access to live entertainment.
- Ticket Sellers (Individuals and Small-scale Resellers): These are individuals or smaller entities who utilize Stubhub's platform to list and sell tickets they possess. This includes individuals who may have surplus tickets, can no longer attend an event, or those who engage in professional ticket reselling.
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Eric H. Baker, CEO / President
Eric H. Baker is the co-founder of StubHub, which he established in 2000 alongside Jeff Fluhr while attending Stanford Graduate School of Business. After departing StubHub in 2005, Baker founded the competing global ticketing platform viagogo in 2006, expanding into international markets. In 2019, he orchestrated viagogo's $4.05 billion acquisition of StubHub from eBay, subsequently becoming the CEO of the combined entity, StubHub Holdings, Inc. Prior to his entrepreneurial ventures, Baker worked at Bain Capital and McKinsey & Company.
Connie James, Chief Financial Officer
Connie James serves as the Chief Financial Officer of StubHub. In November 2025, she was noted for discussing the company's strategy related to interest earned on delayed refunds and seller payments.
Nayaab Islam, President
Nayaab Islam serves as the President of StubHub, having been named to the position in 2022. Previously, Islam held the title of Head of Product for StubHub.
Art Yegorov, Head of Technology / CTO
Art Yegorov serves as the Head of Technology, and also holds the title of CTO, at StubHub.
Jeff Zwelling, Chief Operating Officer
Jeff Zwelling serves as the Chief Operating Officer of StubHub.
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Key Risks to StubHub's Business
- Regulatory Scrutiny and Changes: StubHub operates within a complex and evolving global regulatory landscape, facing extensive exposure to laws concerning data privacy, consumer protection, and ticketing across various jurisdictions. The company is subject to a wave of regulatory actions targeting secondary ticket resale, including proposed legislation for price caps and bans on speculative tickets in regions like California and New York. Regulators, such as the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), are also actively scrutinizing "drip pricing" practices, where additional fees are added late in the transaction process. StubHub has previously faced threats of legal action for allegedly misleading customers regarding ticket validity and availability, indicating an ongoing challenge in meeting consumer protection standards.
- Competition and Disintermediation from the Primary Ticketing Market: StubHub encounters intense competition from both primary and other secondary ticketing providers. The company's business model, which historically operates "without controlling the box office or venue access," makes it vulnerable to strategies employed by primary ticket sellers and event organizers. These entities, including major players like Live Nation (Ticketmaster), are increasingly moving into the secondary market or implementing policies that could limit the supply of tickets available to platforms like StubHub or make resales more difficult. StubHub's strategic pivot towards "original issuance ticketing" reflects its effort to mitigate this risk and achieve a more defensible position against competitors and regulators.
- Dependence on the Live Events Industry: The core of StubHub's business is heavily dependent on the volume, popularity, and availability of live events, such as sports, concerts, and theater. The company's revenue and profitability are directly tied to consumer demand for tickets to these events. Factors that could disrupt the live events industry, including economic downturns affecting discretionary spending, changes in consumer entertainment preferences, or unforeseen global events like pandemics, would directly reduce the supply of tickets and demand on StubHub's platform, thereby impacting its financial performance. The business also experiences pronounced seasonality linked to major sports and concert tours.
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StubHub operates in the live event ticketing market, primarily focusing on secondary ticketing and expanding into primary ticket sales.
Addressable Market Sizes for StubHub's Main Products and Services:
-
Global Secondary Ticketing Market for Live Events:
- In 2023, the global secondary tickets market was valued at approximately USD 2.85 billion and is projected to reach USD 6.56 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 9.7% during the forecast period (2024-2032).
- Other estimates place the global secondary ticketing market at USD 6.58 billion in 2024.
- Another valuation states the market reached USD 3.41 billion in 2026 and is projected to grow at an 8.74% CAGR to USD 5.19 billion by 2031.
-
North American Secondary Ticketing Market for Live Events:
- StubHub estimates the secondary ticketing market in North America to be approximately $17.5 billion.
- North America held the largest share of the global secondary tickets market at 45%. The U.S. alone accounted for approximately 41% of global resale transactions in 2024.
-
Global Primary Ticketing Market for Live Events:
- The primary issuance market is estimated to be $132 billion in 2024.
- The global online event ticketing market, which encompasses primary sales, was valued at USD 56.7 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 99.31 billion by 2032.
- Another estimate for the global online event ticketing market puts its value at USD 63.39 billion in 2024, with a projected growth to USD 117.04 billion by 2034.
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StubHub (STUB) anticipates several key drivers to fuel its revenue growth over the next two to three years:
- International Expansion: StubHub expects faster growth from its international markets, operated under the viagogo brand, which currently represent approximately 15% of its Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS). The company views this overseas business as a major long-term growth runway, aiming to replicate its domestic scale and deepen localization globally.
- North American Market Growth and Market Share Gains: The company plans to continue increasing its GMS within the North American market, where it holds a significant share, estimated at around 50% of the secondary ticketing market. This involves both overall market expansion and capturing additional market share.
- Strategic Shift to Product-Led, AI-Enabled Direct Issuance: StubHub is pivoting towards a product-led and AI-enabled supply strategy for direct ticket issuance. This initiative aims to reduce friction for partners and enable scalable self-serve distribution tools, prioritizing long-term, durable, and automated growth over immediate revenue gains in the near term.
- Improved Marketing Efficiency: The company is focused on refining its marketing efficiency to achieve higher returns while sustaining its market share gains. This optimization of sales and marketing expenses is expected to contribute to overall financial performance.
- Leveraging Core Resale Marketplace and Consistent Unit Economics: StubHub's core resale marketplace is projected to remain a significant driver, supported by consistent take rates (around 20% of GMS) and strong adjusted gross margins (above 80%). The company expects substantial profit growth from this established segment, demonstrating the structural strength of its business model.
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Share Issuance
- StubHub Holdings, Inc. completed its Initial Public Offering (IPO) on September 17, 2025, raising approximately $800 million by offering 34 million shares at $23.50 per share.
- The company stated its intention to use the proceeds primarily to reduce debt and for general corporate purposes.
- In March 2026, an S-8 filing was made for securities to be offered to employees through benefit plans.
Inbound Investments
- In 2020, Viagogo acquired StubHub from eBay for $4.05 billion, forming the combined entity that eventually went public as StubHub Holdings, Inc.
- StubHub Holdings is backed by various institutional investors and private equity firms, including Madrone Capital Partners and Bessemer Venture Partners, with Madrone Capital Partners holding 22.1% after the IPO.
Capital Expenditures
- For the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, StubHub Holdings reported approximately $35 million in capital expenditures, derived from $193 million in net cash provided by operating activities and $158 million in Free Cash Flow.
- These investments are strategically focused on growth initiatives, including a shift to a product-led direct issuance strategy and the launch of an advertising business.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 35.87 |
| Mkt Cap | 6.9 |
| Rev LTM | 2,658 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2 |
| FCF LTM | 319 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 217 |
| CFO LTM | 409 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 419 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 12.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 20.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.6% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 19.4% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 24.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -0.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 2.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 17.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.1% |
Price Behavior
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.97 | 0.06 | 1.23 | 1.52 | -0.01 | -0.17 |
| Up Beta | 2.53 | -0.05 | 0.21 | -0.42 | -0.80 | -0.86 |
| Down Beta | -2.16 | -3.24 | 0.47 | 2.81 | 2.56 | 0.62 |
| Up Capture | 341% | 203% | 170% | 157% | 66% | 6% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 24 | 31 | 62 | 83 | 83 |
| Down Capture | -203% | -213% | 208% | 197% | 172% | 87% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 6 | 16 | 30 | 60 | 90 | 90 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with STUB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STUB | -47.8% | 80.1% | -0.70 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 1.3% | 13.5% | -0.15 | 25.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 22.1% | 12.4% | 1.33 | 26.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.8% | 27.7% | 0.67 | 9.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 23.3% | 18.5% | 0.99 | -0.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.6% | 13.8% | 0.55 | 22.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -42.9% | 42.5% | -1.20 | 31.8% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with STUB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STUB | -12.1% | 80.1% | -0.70 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 6.9% | 20.7% | 0.25 | 25.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.3% | 17.1% | 0.60 | 26.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.4% | 18.3% | 0.77 | 9.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.9% | 19.5% | 0.30 | -0.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.8% | 18.9% | 0.05 | 22.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 9.8% | 54.1% | 0.38 | 31.8% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with STUB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STUB | -6.3% | 80.1% | -0.70 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 8.6% | 22.2% | 0.44 | 25.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 26.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.6% | 16.1% | 0.59 | 9.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 5.9% | 18.0% | 0.25 | -0.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.5% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 22.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 56.4% | 66.5% | 0.97 | 31.8% |
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Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/16/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/13/2026 | 13.7% | 33.0% | 52.4% |
| 3/4/2026 | -12.4% | -25.5% | -36.7% |
| 11/13/2025 | -21.0% | -45.2% | -29.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| # Negative | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Median Positive | 13.7% | 33.0% | 52.4% |
| Median Negative | -16.7% | -35.3% | -33.1% |
| Max Positive | 13.7% | 33.0% | 52.4% |
| Max Negative | -21.0% | -45.2% | -36.7% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/13/2026 | 13.7% | 33.0% | 52.4% |
| 3/4/2026 | -12.4% | -25.5% | -36.7% |
| 11/13/2025 | -21.0% | -45.2% | -29.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| # Negative | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Median Positive | 13.7% | 33.0% | 52.4% |
| Median Negative | -16.7% | -35.3% | -33.1% |
| Max Positive | 13.7% | 33.0% | 52.4% |
| Max Negative | -21.0% | -45.2% | -36.7% |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 6/1/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/13/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 GMS | 9.90 Bil | 10.00 Bil | 10.10 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 10.00 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 400.00 Mil | 410.00 Mil | 420.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 410.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 6/16/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam, Nayaab | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 6162026 | 11.37 | 16,720 | 190,053 | 97,338,955 | Form |
| 2 | Fitzgerald, Scott Michael | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 10.33 | 867 | 8,960 | 2,249,212 | Form |
| 3 | Streams, Mark | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 9.04 | 232,567 | 2,101,545 | 10,066,447 | Form |
| 4 | Fitzgerald, Scott Michael | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 5132026 | 7.57 | 1,613 | 12,214 | 707,575 | Form |
| 5 | Fitzgerald, Scott Michael | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 4152026 | 6.50 | 1,619 | 10,518 | 628,488 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islam, Nayaab | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 6162026 | 11.37 | 16,720 | 190,053 | 97,338,955 | Form |
| 2 | Fitzgerald, Scott Michael | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 10.33 | 867 | 8,960 | 2,249,212 | Form |
| 3 | Streams, Mark | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 9.04 | 232,567 | 2,101,545 | 10,066,447 | Form |
| 4 | Fitzgerald, Scott Michael | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 5132026 | 7.57 | 1,613 | 12,214 | 707,575 | Form |
| 5 | Fitzgerald, Scott Michael | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 4152026 | 6.50 | 1,619 | 10,518 | 628,488 | Form |
| 6 | Fitzgerald, Scott Michael | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 7.66 | 28,387 | 217,547 | 597,462 | Form |
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