Stubhub (STUB)
Market Price (2/3/2026): $13.08 | Market Cap: $4.1 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Interactive Media & Services
Stubhub (STUB)
Market Price (2/3/2026): $13.08Market Cap: $4.1 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Interactive Media & Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -82%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -112% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -1.2 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -68% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -35% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 128x | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Experiential Retail, Show more. | Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 77% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -36% | ||
| Key risksSTUB key risks include [1] a UK regulatory investigation into its pricing practices carrying the threat of fines up to 10% of global turnover and [2] multiple US securities class-action lawsuits alleging misleading IPO disclosures. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -35% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Experiential Retail, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -82%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -112% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -1.2 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -68% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 128x |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 77% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -36% |
| Key risksSTUB key risks include [1] a UK regulatory investigation into its pricing practices carrying the threat of fines up to 10% of global turnover and [2] multiple US securities class-action lawsuits alleging misleading IPO disclosures. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Lack of Q4 2025 Guidance and Near-Term Visibility.
StubHub's stock experienced a significant drop, plummeting over 23% pre-market on November 14, 2025, following its Q3 2025 earnings report where the company declined to provide specific guidance for the fourth quarter. Management indicated they would release the 2026 outlook with full-year 2025 results early the following year, which led to investor frustration and reduced near-term visibility for the newly public company.
2. Significant One-Time Net Loss in Q3 2025.
The company reported a substantial net loss of $1.33 billion, or $4.27 per share, for the third quarter of 2025. This considerable loss was primarily attributed to a one-time, non-cash stock-based compensation charge of $1.4 billion, which was triggered by the September 2025 initial public offering (IPO). Despite being characterized as a one-time event by management, the large reported net loss negatively impacted investor sentiment.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -31.6% change in STUB stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/2/2026 was primarily driven by a -24.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 2022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 19.15 | 13.09 | -31.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,771 | 1,596 | -9.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 3.6 | 2.7 | -24.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 329 | 329 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -31.6% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 2/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| STUB | -31.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.0% | 27.1% |
| Sector (XLC) | 4.2% | 23.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 2/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| STUB | ||
| Market (SPY) | 10.3% | 23.6% |
| Sector (XLC) | 11.8% | 20.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 2/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| STUB | ||
| Market (SPY) | 16.6% | 23.6% |
| Sector (XLC) | 17.9% | 20.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 2/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| STUB | ||
| Market (SPY) | 77.5% | 23.6% |
| Sector (XLC) | 123.7% | 20.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| STUB Return | - | - | - | - | -38% | 4% | -36% |
| Peers Return | 39% | -41% | 41% | 5% | 29% | -14% | 36% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 1% | 85% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| STUB Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 31% | 58% | 44% | 40% | 20% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| STUB Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -53% | -7% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -20% | -47% | -13% | -29% | -35% | -17% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: Z, ZIP, CHAI, WSHP, GOOGL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/2/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
STUB has limited trading history. Below is the Communication Services sector ETF (XLC) in its place.
| Event | XLC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -47.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 89.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 602 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -30.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 112 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 326 days | 120 days |
Compare to Z, ZIP, CHAI, WSHP, GOOGL
In The Past
The Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund's stock fell -47.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/1/2021. A -47.2% loss requires a 89.5% gain to breakeven.
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About Stubhub (STUB)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are a couple of brief analogies to describe StubHub:
- eBay for event tickets.
- Amazon for event tickets.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Please note: StubHub is not currently a public company with the symbol STUB. It was acquired by eBay and later sold to viagogo, operating as a private entity.
StubHub's Major Services:
- Secondary Ticket Marketplace: StubHub operates an online platform where fans can buy and sell tickets for live events such as sports, concerts, and theater productions from other individuals.
AI Analysis | Feedback
StubHub, while formerly a public company, is now a subsidiary of viagogo and no longer trades under the symbol STUB. It operates primarily as a secondary ticket marketplace, connecting buyers and sellers of tickets for live events.
As StubHub primarily serves individual users, its major customer categories include:
- Individual Event Attendees (Buyers): These are people looking to purchase tickets for a wide range of live events such as concerts, sporting events, theater performances, and comedy shows for their personal enjoyment. They use StubHub to find tickets for popular or sold-out events, compare prices, and choose specific seating options.
- Individual Casual Sellers: This category includes individuals who have purchased tickets for an event but can no longer attend due to unforeseen circumstances (e.g., scheduling conflicts, illness, last-minute changes). They use StubHub to easily list and sell their unwanted tickets to recoup their costs, often for a single event or a small number of tickets.
- Individual Professional Sellers/Brokers: While some may operate as small businesses, the direct users interacting with StubHub's platform in this category are often individuals or small teams who professionally resell tickets. They acquire large volumes of tickets with the intent to sell them for profit and leverage StubHub's broad market reach to connect with a large base of potential buyers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Eric Baker, Chief Executive Officer
Eric Baker co-founded StubHub in 2000. After being fired from StubHub in 2004, he went on to found viagogo in London in 2006. Viagogo later acquired StubHub from eBay in 2020, at which point Baker became the CEO of the combined entity, StubHub Holdings. Baker maintains controlling voting power of StubHub Holdings. He previously worked at McKinsey & Company and the private equity firm Bain Capital. His ventures have attracted investments from private equity firms such as Pequot Ventures (now FirstMark Capital) for StubHub, and Bessemer Venture Partners and Madrone Capital Partners for Viagogo and StubHub Holdings, respectively.
Connie James, Chief Financial Officer
Connie James was appointed Chief Financial Officer of StubHub Holdings Inc. on September 19, 2023. She is responsible for the company's financial planning, accounting, analysis, operations, management, and strategy.
Nayaab Islam, President & Chief Product Officer
Nayaab Islam was appointed President of StubHub in July 2022. He also serves as the Chief Product Officer for the company.
Mark Streams, Chief Legal Officer & Executive Vice Chairman
Mark Streams serves as the Chief Legal Officer and Executive Vice Chairman of StubHub Holdings. He is also listed as the General Counsel of StubHub.
Artem Yegorov, Chief Technology Officer
Artem Yegorov holds the position of Chief Technology Officer at StubHub. He is responsible for the company's technology initiatives.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to StubHub's business include regulatory scrutiny and legal challenges, intense competition, and the impact of economic downturns on discretionary spending.
The most significant risk stems from **regulatory scrutiny and ongoing legal challenges**, particularly concerning pricing transparency and consumer protection. StubHub is currently under investigation by the UK's Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) for practices like "drip pricing," where additional fees are revealed late in the purchasing process, potentially misleading consumers about the true cost of tickets. The CMA has new powers under the Digital Markets, Competition and Consumers Act to directly order compensation and issue fines of up to 10% of global turnover for breaches of consumer law. Furthermore, StubHub is facing multiple proposed securities class-action lawsuits in the United States. These lawsuits allege that the company's IPO disclosures were misleading, particularly regarding its free cash flow and other financial metrics, leading to a significant drop in its stock price after its first quarterly earnings report as a public company.
Another major risk is the **intense and evolving competitive landscape** within the ticket resale market. StubHub faces strong competition from established players such as Ticketmaster, SeatGeek, and Vivid Seats, which could limit its market share growth and increase marketing expenditures. There is also a growing trend of primary ticketing platforms integrating their own resale marketplaces and venues/teams opting to keep more inventory in-house, which could squeeze the available ticket supply for secondary platforms like StubHub. Some analysts have already downgraded StubHub's stock rating due to expectations of increased competition in 2026 limiting market share gains.
Finally, StubHub is vulnerable to **economic downturns and their impact on discretionary consumer spending**. Live events are often considered discretionary purchases, meaning that in an economic recession, consumers may reduce their spending on such activities. Historical data indicates that periods of economic hardship, such as the 2008-09 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, significantly impacted the live events and secondary ticketing markets, leading to reduced transaction volumes.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Primary ticket sellers and rights holders are increasingly implementing strategies to limit the open secondary market. This includes utilizing non-transferable tickets, restricting ticket transfers to official face-value exchanges, and offering exclusive fan-to-fan resale platforms that compete directly with StubHub's model. These efforts aim to keep tickets closer to face value, reduce scalping, and ensure revenue flows back to the artists and venues, directly impacting StubHub's inventory and potential transaction volume.
The emergence of blockchain and NFT ticketing represents a significant technological threat. By embedding programmable rules directly into the digital tickets (NFTs), rights holders can dictate resale terms, such as maximum resale prices, allowed resale platforms, or even implement royalties on secondary sales. This technology provides a robust mechanism to enforce control over the ticket lifecycle, potentially circumventing traditional secondary marketplaces like StubHub by either severely limiting their functionality or making them unnecessary for controlled resales.
AI Analysis | Feedback
StubHub Holdings, Inc. (symbol: STUB) became a public company via an initial public offering (IPO) in September 2025 and is traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).
StubHub's main product and service is operating as an online ticket exchange and resale company for live events, including sports, concerts, and theater. The addressable market for StubHub's services is the secondary ticketing market.
The global secondary ticketing market shows varying estimates across different reports, generally ranging from several billion USD to tens of billions USD.
Global Market Size:
- The global secondary ticket market was valued at approximately USD 2.85 billion in 2023.
- It is estimated to be around USD 3.14 billion to USD 3.21 billion in 2024.
- Projections indicate the global market is expected to reach:
- USD 6.45 billion by 2034, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.68% from 2024 to 2034.
- USD 5.112 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of roughly 9.5% between 2023 and 2030.
- USD 6.56 billion by 2032, at a CAGR of 9.7% from 2024 to 2032.
- USD 7.8 billion by 2034, with a 9.2% CAGR.
- Another report provides a significantly higher estimate, projecting the global secondary tickets market size to reach nearly USD 73.44 billion by 2033, with a robust CAGR of 11.21% during the forecast period of 2025–2033.
North America Market Size:
- North America is a dominant region in the secondary ticketing market, projected to account for a significant share of the global market.
- North America accounts for over 45% of the global secondary tickets market, with the U.S. leading in online ticket resales.
- One report states that North America's secondary tickets market size is forecast to increase by USD 19.97 billion from 2024 to 2029, expanding at a CAGR of 18.4% during this period.
- Another estimate indicates that North America is expected to contribute 47% of the growth to the global secondary tickets market between 2024 and 2029, with the market size reaching USD 89.7 billion by 2029.
AI Analysis | Feedback
StubHub (NASDAQ: STUB) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives and market trends:
- Expansion into Direct Issuance / Primary Ticketing: StubHub is strategically expanding its business beyond its traditional secondary ticket marketplace by selling new tickets directly from sports teams and other live event organizers. This direct issuance business is anticipated to scale rapidly from 2026 onwards and could significantly expand the company's total addressable market. Early adopters of this initiative include the New York Yankees, LA Dodgers, and Manchester City.
- Growth of the Advertising Segment: The company is launching and scaling an advertising business on its platform. This new revenue stream is expected to meaningfully contribute to revenue, with analysts forecasting contributions starting in 2026.
- Leveraging Dominant Resale Market Share: StubHub currently holds a dominant position as North America's largest secondary ticket marketplace, with nearly 50% market share. The company aims to accelerate revenue growth by capitalizing on this market leadership, especially as consumer surveys indicate a notable shift toward greater spending on secondary marketplaces.
- Strategic Partnerships and Major Event Catalysts: StubHub continues to form new partnerships with various sports and entertainment entities, such as Major League Baseball (MLB), the Association of Volleyball Professionals (AVP), and the Outside Lands festival. Additionally, major upcoming events like the U.S. World Cup in 2026 are expected to fuel investor optimism and drive ticket demand, reinforcing StubHub's long-term growth.
- Overall Growth of the Live Events Market: The broader global online event ticketing market is projected to continue its expansion, driven by factors such as the post-pandemic rebound in live entertainment spending and increasing adoption of mobile technology. This growing market provides a favorable environment for StubHub's transaction volumes and overall revenue.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Issuance
- StubHub completed its Initial Public Offering (IPO) on September 16, 2025, with shares trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker 'STUB' from September 17, 2025.
- The company raised approximately $800 million through the IPO, pricing shares at $23.50 each.
- The offering solely comprised newly issued shares by the company, without any existing shareholders selling their stakes.
Inbound Investments
- Prior to its IPO, StubHub Holdings, the entity formed by the merger of StubHub and viagogo, was backed by institutional investors and private equity firms.
- Madrone Capital Partners, one of the private equity firms, holds 22.1% ownership after the IPO.
Capital Expenditures
- StubHub intends to use a portion of its IPO proceeds to pay down approximately $550 million of its outstanding debt, which totaled $2.4 billion.
- The company also plans to allocate IPO proceeds for general corporate purposes.
- CEO Eric Baker indicated that an improved balance sheet post-IPO would allow for increased investment of resources into the business.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Stubhub Stock (-9.3%) : Citi Sell Rating and Legal Overhang Spook Investors | 01/21/2026 | |
| Stubhub Earnings Notes | 12/29/2026 | |
| StubHub Stock (+5.4%): Partnership News Sparks A Contrarian Rally | 12/18/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 35.05 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.1 |
| Rev LTM | 2,156 |
| Op Inc LTM | -59 |
| FCF LTM | 78 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 187 |
| CFO LTM | 225 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 387 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 14.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -4.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.1 |
| P/S | 4.2 |
| P/EBIT | -14.8 |
| P/E | -4.0 |
| P/CFO | 31.8 |
| Total Yield | -10.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.9% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -12.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -21.6% |
| 6M Rtn | -31.8% |
| 12M Rtn | -32.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | -2.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -7.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -24.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -42.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -47.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -70.6% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/13/2025 | -21.0% | -45.2% | -29.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | -21.0% | -45.2% | -29.5% |
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | -21.0% | -45.2% | -29.5% |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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