Zillow (Z)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $68.76 | Market Cap: $16.7 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Interactive Media & Services
Zillow (Z)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $68.76Market Cap: $16.7 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Interactive Media & Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -11% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -90 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -3.6% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 7.5x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 45x | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.3% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Online Marketplaces, and Real Estate Data Analytics. | Key risksZ key risks include [1] intensifying competition from established rivals and emerging threats like Google, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Online Marketplaces, and Real Estate Data Analytics. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -11% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -90 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -3.6% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 7.5x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 45x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.3% |
| Key risksZ key risks include [1] intensifying competition from established rivals and emerging threats like Google, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
Z Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points explaining the approximate -18.4% stock movement for Zillow (Z) from August 31, 2025, to December 17, 2025:
1. Competitive Threat from Google's New Real Estate Advertising: In mid-December 2025, Zillow's stock experienced a significant drop following news that Google was testing a new mobile-centric real estate advertising format. This new format directly integrated property details, tour request options, and agent contacts into search results, posing a substantial long-term competitive risk to Zillow's core business model of lead generation. This development caused Zillow's stock (Z) to fall over 5.5% on December 15, and its Class A stock (ZG) to sink 11% on the same day, resulting in an approximate $1.5 billion loss in market value by December 16.
2. Increased Regulatory Scrutiny and Industry Challenges: Zillow's management acknowledged heightened "external noise" regarding regulatory matters, specifically mentioning an FTC case and ongoing merger and acquisition activity within the industry. Analysts also expressed concerns about these regulatory risks, which can create uncertainty and dampen investor confidence in the company's future operational landscape.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| Z Return | 183% | -51% | -50% | 80% | 28% | -5% | 53% |
| Peers Return | � | � | -56% | 102% | -15% | 91% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| Z Win Rate | 75% | 50% | 42% | 58% | 42% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | 40% | 33% | 50% | 42% | 43% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| Z Max Drawdown | -46% | -59% | -58% | 0% | -32% | -19% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | -65% | -8% | -34% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CSGP, COMP, EXPI, RKT, OPEN. See Z Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | Z | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -86.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 641.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -61.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 159.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 124 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -58.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 141.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 609 days | 120 days |
Compare to PINS, CHAI, WSHP, GOOGL, META
In The Past
Zillow's stock fell -86.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/16/2021. A -86.5% loss requires a 641.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Zillow Earnings Notes | |||
| Zillow Stock (-8.5%): Google Search Test Sparks Platform Threat Fears | Notification | ||
| With Zillow Stock Sliding, Have You Assessed The Risk? | Return | ||
| How Does Zillow Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | |||
| Z Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Zillow Total Shareholder Return (TSR): 28.0% in 2024 and 5.1% 3-yr compounded annual returns (above peer average) | |||
| Zillow (Z) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Zillow (Z) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Zillow (Z) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Zillow (Z) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Why Did Zillow’s Stock Fall By 26% Last Month? | November 9th, 2021 | ||
| What Is The Likelihood Of Zillow’s Stock Rising Over The Next Month? | March 30th, 2021 | ||
| Why Has Zillow’s Stock Gained Almost 40% In 2 Months? | December 31st, 2019 | ||
| Here’s What Led To A 26% Jump In Zillow Group’s Stock In A Month | November 14th, 2019 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to Z. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.9% | -0.9% | -1.4% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -4.3% | -4.3% | -6.4% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -3.4% | -3.4% | -3.9% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.3% | -0.3% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -27.9% | -27.9% | -29.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.9% | -0.9% | -1.4% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -4.3% | -4.3% | -6.4% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -3.4% | -3.4% | -3.9% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.3% | -0.3% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -27.9% | -27.9% | -29.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Zillow
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 14.34 |
| Mkt Cap | 11.3 |
| Rev LTM | 4,699 |
| Op Inc LTM | -81 |
| FCF LTM | 129 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 114 |
| CFO LTM | 282 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 282 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 14.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 18.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -2.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -3.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 7.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 11.3 |
| P/S | 4.3 |
| P/EBIT | -112.9 |
| P/E | -83.6 |
| P/CFO | 18.3 |
| Total Yield | -0.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 0.8% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -19.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 22.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 22.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 115.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -20.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 10.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 9.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 41.6% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | 1,945 | 1,958 | |||
| Internet, Media & Technology (IMT) | 1,886 | 1,450 | 1,277 | ||
| Mortgages | 246 | 174 | 101 | ||
| Homes | 1,715 | 1,365 | |||
| Total | 1,945 | 1,958 | 2,132 | 3,340 | 2,743 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | -270 | ||||
| Homes | -254 | -303 | -45 | ||
| Internet, Media & Technology (IMT) | 545 | 258 | 80 | ||
| Mortgages | -52 | 4 | -282 | ||
| Total | -270 | 239 | -41 | -247 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | -158 | ||||
| Total | -158 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/30/2025 | 4.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| 8/6/2025 | -0.6% | -0.4% | 3.2% |
| 5/7/2025 | 0.0% | 0.6% | 3.6% |
| 2/11/2025 | -9.4% | -7.5% | -20.8% |
| 11/6/2024 | 23.8% | 27.2% | 40.1% |
| 8/7/2024 | 18.3% | 28.4% | 27.7% |
| 5/1/2024 | -4.9% | -0.6% | -2.2% |
| 2/13/2024 | 7.8% | -0.2% | 2.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 16 | 15 | 14 |
| # Negative | 9 | 10 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 11.1% | 4.8% | 13.8% |
| Median Negative | -4.9% | -5.0% | -10.7% |
| Max Positive | 23.8% | 28.5% | 40.1% |
| Max Negative | -24.9% | -23.9% | -51.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2112025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2152024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2152023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2102022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| FinViz |