Zillow (Z)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $75.51 | Market Cap: $18.3 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Interactive Media & Services
Zillow (Z)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $75.51Market Cap: $18.3 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Interactive Media & Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -90 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -3.6% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 45x |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.3% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Online Marketplaces, and Real Estate Data Analytics. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Online Marketplaces, and Real Estate Data Analytics. |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -90 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -3.6% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 45x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.3% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
Z Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
For the public company Zillow (Z), the stock's -9.8% movement from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, can be attributed to several key factors:
1. Zillow's Q3 2025 earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst expectations. The company reported Q3 2025 EPS of $0.44, falling short of the consensus estimate of $0.46, despite reporting higher-than-expected revenue of $729.00 million. This earnings miss was reported around October 30, 2025.
2. Zillow faced a lawsuit from the Federal Trade Commission (FTC). On October 28, 2025, reports indicated that Zillow and Redfin were sued by the FTC over alleged suppression of rental advertising competition, representing a notable legal challenge for the company.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| Z Return | 183% | -51% | -50% | 80% | 28% | -3% | 57% |
| Peers Return | 63% | 9% | -27% | 61% | 16% | 14% | 176% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| Z Win Rate | 75% | 50% | 42% | 58% | 42% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 37% | 35% | 20% | 45% | 35% | 70% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| Z Max Drawdown | -46% | -59% | -58% | 0% | -32% | -19% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -18% | -12% | -34% | -3% | -6% | -11% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PINS, STUB, WSHP, GOOGL, META. See Z Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | Z | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -86.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 641.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -61.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 159.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 124 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -58.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 141.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 609 days | 120 days |
Compare to PINS, STUB, WSHP, GOOGL, META
In The Past
Zillow's stock fell -86.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/16/2021. A -86.5% loss requires a 641.2% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Would You Still Hold Zillow Stock If It Fell 30%? | Return | ||
| How Does Zillow Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | |||
| Z Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Zillow Total Shareholder Return (TSR): 28.0% in 2024 and 5.1% 3-yr compounded annual returns (above peer average) | |||
| Zillow (Z) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Zillow (Z) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Zillow (Z) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Zillow (Z) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Zillow vs. S&P500 Correlation | Correlation | ||
| Zillow Price Volatility | Volatility | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Why Did Zillow’s Stock Fall By 26% Last Month? | November 9th, 2021 | ||
| What Is The Likelihood Of Zillow’s Stock Rising Over The Next Month? | March 30th, 2021 | ||
| Why Has Zillow’s Stock Gained Almost 40% In 2 Months? | December 31st, 2019 | ||
| Here’s What Led To A 26% Jump In Zillow Group’s Stock In A Month | November 14th, 2019 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to Z. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.9% | 4.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -25.1% | -25.1% | -25.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.9% | 4.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -25.1% | -25.1% | -25.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Zillow
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 110.50 |
| Mkt Cap | 814.2 |
| Rev LTM | 96,757 |
| Op Inc LTM | 41,088 |
| FCF LTM | 22,981 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 22,934 |
| CFO LTM | 54,361 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 43,178 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 16.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 12.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 16.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 19.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 14.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 33.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 21.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 814.2 |
| P/S | 7.6 |
| P/EBIT | 20.5 |
| P/E | 17.3 |
| P/CFO | 19.2 |
| Total Yield | 4.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -11.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 0.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -2.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 158.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -17.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -14.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -12.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 102.4% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | 1,945 | 1,958 | |||
| Internet, Media & Technology (IMT) | 1,886 | 1,450 | 1,277 | ||
| Mortgages | 246 | 174 | 101 | ||
| Homes | 1,715 | 1,365 | |||
| Total | 1,945 | 1,958 | 2,132 | 3,340 | 2,743 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | -270 | ||||
| Homes | -254 | -303 | -45 | ||
| Internet, Media & Technology (IMT) | 545 | 258 | 80 | ||
| Mortgages | -52 | 4 | -282 | ||
| Total | -270 | 239 | -41 | -247 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | -158 | ||||
| Total | -158 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2112025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2152024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2152023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2102022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |