SanDisk (SNDK)
Market Price (11/1/2026): $1157.26 | Market Cap: $-Investor Relations Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
SanDisk (SNDK)
Market Price (11/1/2026): $1157.26Market Cap: $-Sector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.2%, FCF Yield is 10% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 272% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 73% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 61%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 60%, CFO LTM is 18 Bil, FCF LTM is 17 Bil Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -65% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 5.0 Bil Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, Show more. | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 477% High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 113% Key risksSNDK key risks include [1] significant profitability challenges, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.2%, FCF Yield is 10% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 272% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 73% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 61%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 60%, CFO LTM is 18 Bil, FCF LTM is 17 Bil |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -65% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 5.0 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, Show more. |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 477% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 113% |
| Key risksSNDK key risks include [1] significant profitability challenges, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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SanDisk (SNDK) stock has lost about 5% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Negative market reaction to robust fiscal Q1 2027 earnings and forward stock split. Despite SanDisk reporting strong fiscal first quarter 2027 (which ended October 2, 2026) results on October 29, 2026, the stock experienced a significant decline. Revenue reached $11.0 billion, marking a 378% year-over-year increase and surpassing analyst expectations of $10.7 billion. Non-GAAP diluted EPS was $49.51, exceeding the consensus estimate of $46.19. The company also provided optimistic fiscal Q2 2027 revenue guidance of $12.2 billion to $12.6 billion. However, the stock fell sharply by 13.5% by October 30, 2026, in response to the announcement. Concurrently, SanDisk announced an 8-for-1 forward stock split, effective November 19, 2026, aiming to increase stock accessibility, which, despite strong financials, may have contributed to market uncertainty.
2. Analyst downgrade following the fiscal Q1 2027 earnings report. On October 30, 2026, following SanDisk's fiscal Q1 2027 earnings release, Wells Fargo downgraded its price target for SanDisk from $1,550 to $1,300 while maintaining an "equal-weight" rating. This revision by a major financial institution immediately contributed to a significant sell-off, with the stock price dropping 13.5% on that day.
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SanDisk (SNDK) stock has lost about 5% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Negative market reaction to robust fiscal Q1 2027 earnings and forward stock split. Despite SanDisk reporting strong fiscal first quarter 2027 (which ended October 2, 2026) results on October 29, 2026, the stock experienced a significant decline. Revenue reached $11.0 billion, marking a 378% year-over-year increase and surpassing analyst expectations of $10.7 billion. Non-GAAP diluted EPS was $49.51, exceeding the consensus estimate of $46.19. The company also provided optimistic fiscal Q2 2027 revenue guidance of $12.2 billion to $12.6 billion. However, the stock fell sharply by 13.5% by October 30, 2026, in response to the announcement. Concurrently, SanDisk announced an 8-for-1 forward stock split, effective November 19, 2026, aiming to increase stock accessibility, which, despite strong financials, may have contributed to market uncertainty.
2. Analyst downgrade following the fiscal Q1 2027 earnings report. On October 30, 2026, following SanDisk's fiscal Q1 2027 earnings release, Wells Fargo downgraded its price target for SanDisk from $1,550 to $1,300 while maintaining an "equal-weight" rating. This revision by a major financial institution immediately contributed to a significant sell-off, with the stock price dropping 13.5% on that day.
3. Broader market concerns regarding NAND memory cyclicality. Even with SanDisk's strategic initiatives, including 10 long-term supply agreements with eight customers that guarantee at least $93.9 billion in revenue over their lives and cover over half of fiscal 2027 bit shipments with contractual price floors, broader market sentiment showed skepticism. The stock's valuation, trading at approximately 8 times expected fiscal 2027 earnings, suggests investor concerns about the long-term sustainability of the current high profitability in the cyclical NAND memory market, potentially leading to a premature pricing-in of a market peak.
4. Significant insider selling by a key executive. On September 3, 2026, during the company's fiscal first quarter 2027, Executive Vice President (EVP) and Chief Technology Officer (CTO) Alper Ikbahar sold 4,712 shares of SanDisk stock for a total value of $7.2 million. Such a substantial insider transaction, exceeding the $5 million threshold, can sometimes be perceived by the market as a signal of reduced confidence in the company's near-term prospects, thus exerting downward pressure on the stock.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -5.3% change in SNDK stock from 7/31/2026 to 10/31/2026 was primarily driven by a -78.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 10312026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1214.83 | 1150.89 | -5.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 13,184 | 28,971 | 119.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 34.2% | 67.0% | 96.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 39.9 | 8.7 | -78.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 148 | 146 | 1.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -5.3% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 10/31/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SNDK | -5.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.2% | 43.6% |
| Sector (XLK) | 2.4% | 64.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 5.0% change in SNDK stock from 4/30/2026 to 10/31/2026 was primarily driven by a 224.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 10312026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1096.51 | 1150.89 | 5.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,929 | 28,971 | 224.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 18.1 | 5.8 | -67.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 147 | 146 | 0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 5.0% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 10/31/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SNDK | 5.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.4% | 47.0% |
| Sector (XLK) | 12.7% | 72.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 477.4% change in SNDK stock from 10/31/2025 to 10/31/2026 was primarily driven by a 293.9% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 10312026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 199.33 | 1150.89 | 477.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 7,355 | 28,971 | 293.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 3.9 | 5.8 | 47.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 145 | 146 | -0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 477.4% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 10/31/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SNDK | 477.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.7% | 46.6% |
| Sector (XLK) | 19.9% | 63.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 10/31/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SNDK | ||
| Market (SPY) | 86.9% | 47.1% |
| Sector (XLK) | 122.8% | 60.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SNDK Return | - | - | - | - | 388% | 385% | 2268% |
| Peers Return | 42% | -35% | 54% | 16% | 153% | 136% | 872% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SNDK Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 73% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 40% | 60% | 55% | 72% | 64% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SNDK Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | -56% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -24% | -46% | -20% | -28% | -42% | -36% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MU, STX, WDC, NTAP, HPE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/30/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
SNDK has limited trading history. Below is the Information Technology sector ETF (XLK) in its place.
| Event | XLK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.7% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 65 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -17.0% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.4% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 92 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -10.0% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.2% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 15 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -33.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 246 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -31.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.8% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 100 days | 105 days |
In The Past
State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -25.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 34.5% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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SNDK has limited trading history. Below is the Information Technology sector ETF (XLK) in its place.
| Event | XLK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.7% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 65 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -33.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 246 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -31.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.8% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 100 days | 105 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -51.5% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 106.2% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 797 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -25.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 34.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About SanDisk (SNDK)
SanDisk Corporation (SNDK) is a global technology company specializing in the design, development, manufacture, and marketing of innovative data storage solutions. The company focuses on flash memory technology, providing a broad portfolio of products that enable digital storage across consumer, enterprise, and mobile markets. Its primary offerings include Solid State Drives (SSDs), embedded flash solutions, and various removable memory products.
SanDisk's product lineup is extensive. For computing, it offers client SSDs for desktops, notebooks, and tablets, as well as enterprise SSD solutions under brand names like SanDisk Extreme and SanDisk SSD Plus. Its embedded products, such as iNAND, are vital for mobile phones, tablets, wearables, and automotive applications. Additionally, the company provides a wide array of removable products, including microSD, CompactFlash, and Secure Digital cards for cameras and mobile devices, along with USB flash drives and wireless storage solutions.
The company serves a diverse customer base through both direct sales and an extensive network of distributors. SanDisk's products are sold to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), system integrators, and value-added resellers. Furthermore, it has a strong retail presence, making its products available to consumers through major channels like consumer electronics stores, office superstores, mobile phone stores, mass merchants, and e-commerce platforms worldwide.
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SanDisk is like the Intel of flash memory, providing the essential digital storage chips and products for devices ranging from smartphones to enterprise data centers.
SanDisk is also like Kingston Technology, but exclusively focused on flash memory products like USB drives, SD cards, and SSDs for consumers and businesses.
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- Solid State Drives (SSDs): Data storage devices for client computing applications and enterprise solutions.
- Embedded Products (iNAND): Integrated flash memory solutions designed for mobile phones, tablets, notebooks, and automotive applications.
- Removable Memory Cards: Includes microSD, CompactFlash, and Secure Digital cards used in mobile products, digital cameras, and camcorders.
- USB Flash Drives: Portable universal serial bus storage devices for the computing and consumer markets.
- Wireless Drive Products: Devices that allow wireless streaming of movies, photos, music, and documents to various smart devices.
- Digital Media Players (Sansa): Portable devices for playing digital media, offered under the Sansa brand.
- Memory Wafers and Components: Fundamental flash memory components and raw materials used in the manufacturing of storage products.
- Software Solutions: Complementary software designed to enhance the functionality and management of flash storage products.
- InfiniFlash System: An enterprise system solution providing petabyte-scalable, high-performance flash storage capacity.
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Major Customers of SanDisk (SNDK)
SanDisk primarily sells its products to other companies. Its major business customers include:- Original equipment manufacturers (OEMs)
- System integrators
- Value-added resellers (VARs)
- Retail channels, such as consumer electronics stores, office superstores, mobile phone stores, mass merchants, e-commerce retailers, catalog and mail order companies, drug stores, supermarkets, convenience stores, and kiosks.
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- Toshiba Corporation (TOSBF)
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David V. Goeckeler, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
David Goeckeler was appointed Chairman and CEO of SanDisk in February 2025, following the company's spin-off from Western Digital. Previously, he served as the CEO of Western Digital, where he led the company's transformation and separation into two independent public entities: Western Digital and SanDisk. Prior to his leadership at Western Digital, Goeckeler was the Executive Vice President and General Manager of Cisco's $34 billion networking and security business. He began his career at Bell Laboratories.
Luis Felipe Visoso, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Luis Felipe Visoso became SanDisk's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer in February 2025, coinciding with the company's separation from Western Digital. Before joining SanDisk, he held the position of Chief Administrative Officer at Western Digital from August 2024 to February 2025. His extensive financial leadership experience includes serving as CFO of Unity Software Inc. (April 2021 – August 2024), CFO of Palo Alto Networks (July 2020 – April 2021), and various CFO roles at Amazon, including for Amazon Web Services and the Worldwide Consumer division. He also held a senior finance leadership role at Cisco from February 2016 to December 2018. Visoso spent over 23 years at Procter & Gamble in global finance leadership positions across Latin America, Europe, and the United States. He holds a Bachelor's degree in Industrial Engineering and a minor in International Business from Tecnológico de Monterrey.
Alper Ilkbahar, Executive Vice President and Chief Technology Officer
As the Executive Vice President and Chief Technology Officer, Alper Ilkbahar is responsible for SanDisk's technological vision. He leads the company's research and development initiatives, focusing on advancing data storage technologies, including semiconductor design, memory technologies, and data management solutions.
V. Don Angspatt, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer
V. Don Angspatt serves as the Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer for SanDisk.
Bernard Shek, Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer and Secretary
Bernard Shek holds the titles of Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, and Secretary at SanDisk.
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Key Risks to SanDisk (SNDK)
- Technological Obsolescence and Rapid Innovation Cycle: SanDisk operates in the highly dynamic data storage industry, particularly flash memory, which is characterized by rapid technological advancements and short product lifecycles. The risk lies in the potential for competitors to introduce superior or more cost-effective memory technologies, architectures, or manufacturing processes that could render SanDisk's current product offerings less competitive or obsolete. This necessitates continuous and significant investment in research and development to maintain market relevance and product leadership.
- Intense Price Competition and Margin Pressure: The market for flash memory and solid-state drives (SSDs) is highly competitive and often subject to significant pricing pressure. Factors such as oversupply in the market, aggressive pricing strategies by competitors, or general economic downturns can lead to price erosion for SanDisk's products. This intense competition can compress profit margins and make it challenging to maintain profitability, even amidst high sales volumes.
- Dependence on Key Customers and End Markets: SanDisk's business relies heavily on sales to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) across various sectors, including mobile phones, tablets, and computing devices, as well as system integrators and various retail channels. Significant shifts in demand within these key end markets (e.g., a slowdown in smartphone growth or a decline in PC sales), or a major OEM choosing to switch suppliers or develop their own storage solutions, could materially impact SanDisk's revenue and business performance.
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SanDisk (SNDK) operates in several significant addressable markets for its data storage solutions. The company's main products include Solid State Drives (SSDs), embedded flash storage, and removable products such as memory cards and USB flash drives, all based on NAND flash technology.
- Solid State Drives (SSDs): The global solid state drive market was estimated at USD 19.1 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 55.1 billion by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.5% from 2024 to 2030. North America held the highest market share, 42.2%, in 2023. The global PC SSDs market alone was valued at USD 18.62 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 31.33 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 7.9% during the forecast period. For enterprise solutions, the global enterprise flash storage market was worth USD 29.70 billion in 2024 and is predicted to reach USD 112.95 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 16% during the forecast period 2025 to 2033.
- Embedded Products (e.g., iNAND): The global embedded storage solutions market size was valued at approximately USD 10.24 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 22.07 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of roughly 8.91% between 2024 and 2032. This market is driven by the increasing use of embedded non-volatile memory (eNVM) in consumer electronics, such as smartphones, wearables, IoT devices, and the automotive industry.
- NAND Flash Memory: As the foundational technology for many of SanDisk's products, the global NAND flash market size was valued at USD 65.1 billion in 2024 and is estimated to grow to USD 111.7 billion by 2034, at a CAGR of 5.6% from 2025 to 2034.
- Removable Products (Flash Memory Cards): The global flash memory card market size was valued at USD 9.2 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach USD 12.9 billion by 2033, exhibiting a CAGR of 3.9% from 2025-2033. Specifically, the global Secure Digital (SD) memory card market was valued at USD 8.7 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 11.1 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 3.5% between 2025 and 2032.
- USB Flash Drives: The global USB flash drive market size is projected to be USD 5.93 billion in 2025 and reach USD 8.77 billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 6.66% from 2026 to 2031. Another estimate places the global USB Flash Drives Market size at USD 6142.8 million in 2025, expected to boost sales to USD 11369.89 million by 2033, with a CAGR of 8.00% from 2025 to 2033.
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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for SanDisk (symbol: SNDK) over the next 2-3 years:
- Growing Demand for NAND Flash Memory Across Industries: As one of the top five global suppliers and a vertically integrated producer of NAND flash memory semiconductors, SanDisk is strategically positioned to capitalize on the increasing worldwide demand for flash storage. This demand is fueled by the continued growth in data generation from various sectors, including mobile computing, artificial intelligence, and big data analytics, all requiring high-capacity and high-performance flash solutions.
- Expansion in Enterprise and Cloud Solid State Drive (SSD) Markets: SanDisk's focus on repackaging its flash chips into Solid State Drives (SSDs) for cloud storage, in addition to consumer electronics and external storage, presents a significant revenue growth opportunity. The company's offerings, including enterprise SSD solutions and system solutions like the InfiniFlash System, are crucial for supporting the escalating storage needs of data centers and hyperscale cloud providers.
- Increased Adoption of Embedded Storage in Emerging Technologies: The iNAND brand, SanDisk's line of embedded products for mobile phones, tablets, notebooks, wearable devices, automotive, and connected home applications, is a key driver. As these markets mature and new technologies emerge, the demand for integrated and efficient flash storage solutions within these devices is expected to grow.
- Optimized Manufacturing and Strategic Joint Ventures: SanDisk's vertical integration, which involves producing most of its flash chips at manufacturing sites in Japan through a joint venture with Kioxia, provides a stable and cost-effective supply chain. Furthermore, the recent joint venture with Fab2 in September 2025 demonstrates an ongoing strategy to enhance manufacturing capabilities and secure future production, thereby supporting long-term revenue expansion.
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Outbound Investments
- SanDisk extended its flash supply joint venture agreement with Kioxia through the end of 2034 in January 2026. This agreement was previously set to expire at the end of 2029.
Capital Expenditures
- For the fiscal year ending June 27, 2025, SanDisk reported capital expenditures of $1,132 million.
- The company is directing ongoing research and development investments towards enhancing product density and efficiency, specifically targeting market share expansion in response to the growing demand from AI data centers.
- SanDisk is significantly investing in its BiCS8 technology, an advanced flash memory, with plans for it to constitute the majority of bit production by the end of fiscal year 2026.
Peer Outperformance in Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
null| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electronic Manufacturing Services | 10 | 23.5% | 116.3% | 232.6% | FLEX 597% · TTMI 526% · JBL 362% |
| Technology Distributors | 9 | 46.6% | 83.2% | 82.4% | AVT 162% · SNX 140% · CNXN 100% |
| Semiconductor Materials & Equipment | 28 | 41.2% | 75.7% | 59.3% | AXTI 574% · LRCX 346% · KLAC 345% |
| Communications Equipment | 36 | 2.6% | 86.8% | 51.0% | LITE 918% · AAOI 803% · ANET 559% |
| Electronic Components | 26 | 0.4% | 67.9% | 46.8% | CLS 2604% · BELFA 1204% · APH 332% |
| Semiconductors | 55 | 1.3% | 55.8% | 16.4% | MU 1211% · NVDA 704% · AVGO 570% |
| Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals ← | 21 | 3.7% | 100.8% | 2.6% | WDC 841% · SMCI 831% · DELL 744% |
| Electronic Equipment & Instruments | 27 | -6.9% | 33.7% | -1.1% | PI 158% · OSIS 114% · MIR 73% |
| Internet Services & Infrastructure | 6 | 5.8% | 60.2% | -10.1% | GDDY 69% · VRSN 40% · DOCN -8% |
| IT Consulting & Other Services | 30 | -26.7% | 2.5% | -24.6% | CHRN 378321% · APLD 280% · IBM 160% |
| Application Software | 126 | -17.2% | -2.8% | -49.0% | PLTR 611% · FROG 189% · AGYS 143% |
| Systems Software | 69 | -10.0% | 25.5% | -51.8% | ZETA 277% · CRWD 255% · CVLT 169% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 507.80 |
| Mkt Cap | 141.1 |
| Rev LTM | 21,726 |
| Op Inc LTM | 5,740 |
| FCF LTM | 4,223 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,045 |
| CFO LTM | 5,778 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,519 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 43.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 34.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 58.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 12.6% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 139.9% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 260.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 40.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 24.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 5.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 34.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 29.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.4% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single segment | 20,248 | 7,355 | 6,663 | 6,086 |
| Total | 20,248 | 7,355 | 6,663 | 6,086 |
| $ Mil | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Single segment | 12,389 | -1,377 | -468 |
| Total | 12,389 | -1,377 | -468 |
| $ Mil | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single segment | 11,433 | -1,641 | -672 | -2,143 |
| Total | 11,433 | -1,641 | -672 | -2,143 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $1,150.89 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 168.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/29/2006 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -50.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $1,557.91 | $1,259.17 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -26.1% | -8.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 84.7% | 112.8% |
| Downside Capture | 245.54 | 272.97 |
| Upside Capture | 282.94 | 473.27 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 32.8% | 45.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 4.96 | 3.15 | 3.44 | 4.38 | 4.11 | 0.03 |
| Up Beta | -8.53 | -2.08 | 2.71 | 5.72 | 3.82 | 0.09 |
| Down Beta | 5.99 | 8.61 | 7.81 | 4.38 | 3.93 | 0.68 |
| Up Capture | 201% | 134% | 264% | 687% | 5041% | 4811% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 7 | 17 | 29 | 61 | 135 | 229 |
| Down Capture | 623% | 304% | 244% | 261% | 177% | 110% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 15 | 26 | 35 | 65 | 116 | 194 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SNDK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SNDK | 467.1% | 112.8% | 2.05 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 18.6% | 27.1% | 0.60 | 63.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 10.9% | 12.8% | 0.52 | 46.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | -2.0% | 28.6% | -0.08 | 22.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 48.2% | 20.6% | 1.79 | -1.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 10.2% | 13.7% | 0.45 | -13.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -30.0% | 43.5% | -0.70 | 17.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SNDK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SNDK | 89.2% | 103.0% | 2.32 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 18.6% | 26.1% | 0.64 | 60.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.2% | 17.1% | 0.53 | 47.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 16.2% | 19.0% | 0.68 | 17.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.2% | 19.5% | 0.35 | 8.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.9% | 18.9% | -0.06 | 7.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.9% | 51.6% | 0.28 | 17.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SNDK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SNDK | 37.5% | 103.0% | 2.32 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 23.7% | 25.1% | 0.86 | 60.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 47.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.4% | 16.5% | 0.56 | 17.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 8.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.3% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 7.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 61.8% | 66.2% | 1.02 | 17.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 11/1/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2026 | -13.5% | ||
| 8/5/2026 | -6.8% | -0.5% | 15.1% |
| 4/30/2026 | 8.3% | 22.2% | 60.6% |
| 1/29/2026 | 6.9% | 6.8% | 14.8% |
| 11/6/2025 | 15.3% | 17.3% | 5.7% |
| 8/14/2025 | -4.6% | -2.5% | 93.0% |
| 5/7/2025 | 4.8% | 19.9% | 12.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| # Negative | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Median Positive | 7.6% | 18.6% | 15.0% |
| Median Negative | -6.8% | -1.5% | |
| Max Positive | 15.3% | 22.2% | 93.0% |
| Max Negative | -13.5% | -2.5% | |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2026 | -13.5% | ||
| 8/5/2026 | -6.8% | -0.5% | 15.1% |
| 4/30/2026 | 8.3% | 22.2% | 60.6% |
| 1/29/2026 | 6.9% | 6.8% | 14.8% |
| 11/6/2025 | 15.3% | 17.3% | 5.7% |
| 8/14/2025 | -4.6% | -2.5% | 93.0% |
| 5/7/2025 | 4.8% | 19.9% | 12.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| # Negative | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Median Positive | 7.6% | 18.6% | 15.0% |
| Median Negative | -6.8% | -1.5% | |
| Max Positive | 15.3% | 22.2% | 93.0% |
| Max Negative | -13.5% | -2.5% | |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/17/2026 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/01/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 01/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2016 | 05/02/2016 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2015 | 02/12/2016 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2015 | 10/30/2015 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2015 | 07/31/2015 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2015 | 04/30/2015 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2014 | 02/10/2015 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2014 | 11/03/2014 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2014 | 07/31/2014 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/17/2026 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/01/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 01/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2016 | 05/02/2016 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2015 | 02/12/2016 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2015 | 10/30/2015 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2015 | 07/31/2015 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2015 | 04/30/2015 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2014 | 02/10/2015 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2014 | 11/03/2014 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2014 | 07/31/2014 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2014 | 05/01/2014 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2013 | 02/21/2014 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2013 | 10/22/2013 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2013 | 07/30/2013 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2013 | 05/03/2013 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2012 | 02/19/2013 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2012 | 11/05/2012 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2012 | 08/06/2012 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2012 | 05/08/2012 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2011 | 02/23/2012 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2011 | 11/09/2011 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2011 | 08/10/2011 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 10/30/2026Latest: Q1 2027 Earnings Reported 10/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2027 Revenue | Reported | 12.20 Bil | 12.40 Bil | 12.60 Bil | 17.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 10.55 Bil for Q1 2027 | |
| Q2 2027 GAAP Gross Margin | Reported | 84.4% | 84.9% | 85.4% | ||||
| Q2 2027 Non-GAAP Gross Margin | Reported | 84.5% | 85.0% | 85.5% | ||||
| Q2 2027 Gross Margin Stock-Based Compensation Expense | Reported | 9.0E8% | 1.05E9% | 1.2E9% | ||||
| Q2 2027 GAAP Operating Expenses | Reported | 677.00 Mil | 711.00 Mil | 745.00 Mil | ||||
| Q2 2027 Non-GAAP Operating Expenses | Reported | 540.00 Mil | 550.00 Mil | 560.00 Mil | ||||
| Q2 2027 Operating Expenses Stock-Based Compensation Expense | Reported | 137.00 Mil | 161.00 Mil | 185.00 Mil | ||||
| Q2 2027 Non-GAAP Tax Expense Rate | Reported | 0.14 | ||||||
| Q2 2027 Non-GAAP Diluted Net Income Per Share | Reported | 55 | 56 | 57 | 24.4% | Higher New | Guidance: 45 for Q1 2027 | |
| Q2 2027 Total Stock-Based Compensation Expense Excluded from Non-GAAP Diluted Net Income Per Share | Reported | 146.00 Mil | 171.50 Mil | 197.00 Mil | ||||
| Q2 2027 Diluted Shares Outstanding | Reported | 151.00 Mil | ||||||
Prior: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 4/30/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 Revenue | Reported | 7.75 Bil | 8.00 Bil | 8.25 Bil | 73.9% | Higher New | Guidance: 4.60 Bil for Q3 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Gross Profit | Calculated | 6.12 Bil | 6.40 Bil | 6.68 Bil | Rev x Gross Margin | |||
| Q4 2026 GAAP Gross Margin | Reported | 78.9% | 79.9% | 80.9% | ||||
| Q4 2026 Non-GAAP Gross Margin | Reported | 79.0% | 80.0% | 81.0% | ||||
| Q4 2026 GAAP Operating Expenses | Reported | 523.00 Mil | 540.50 Mil | 558.00 Mil | ||||
| Q4 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Expenses | Reported | 480.00 Mil | 490.00 Mil | 500.00 Mil | ||||
| Q4 2026 Operating Income | Calculated | 5.62 Bil | 5.91 Bil | 6.20 Bil | Rev x Gross Margin - Opex | |||
| Q4 2026 Operating Margin | Calculated | 72.55% | 73.88% | 75.18% | Implied by guided Rev/GM/Opex | |||
| Q4 2026 Non-GAAP Tax Expense | Reported | 775.00 Mil | 825.00 Mil | 875.00 Mil | ||||
| Q4 2026 Non-GAAP Diluted Net Income Per Share | Reported | 30 | 31.5 | 33 | 142.3% | Higher New | Guidance: 13 for Q3 2026 | |
Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 1/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Revenue | Reported | 4.40 Bil | 4.60 Bil | 4.80 Bil | 76.9% | Higher New | Actual: 2.60 Bil for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Non-GAAP Diluted Net Income Per Share | Reported | 12 | 13 | 14 | 306.2% | Higher New | Actual: 3.2 for Q2 2026 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 10/22/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shek, Bernard | Chief Legal Officer and Secty | Direct | Sell | 10022026 | 1734.94 | 600 | 1,040,964 | 44,393,645 | Form |
| 2 | Goeckeler, David | Chairman & CEO | Direct | Sell | 9212026 | 1574.21 | 33,841 | 53,272,704 | 602,708,369 | Form |
| 3 | Visoso, Luis Felipe | EVP & CFO | Direct | Sell | 9162026 | 1568.83 | 1,000 | 1,568,830 | 205,479,078 | Form |
| 4 | Goeckeler, David | Chairman & CEO | Direct | Sell | 9162026 | 1527.87 | 33,838 | 51,700,130 | 631,637,532 | Form |
| 5 | Shek, Bernard | Chief Legal Officer & Secty | Direct | Sell | 9082026 | 1767.33 | 2,308 | 4,078,998 | 44,722,286 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shek, Bernard | Chief Legal Officer and Secty | Direct | Sell | 10022026 | 1734.94 | 600 | 1,040,964 | 44,393,645 | Form |
| 2 | Goeckeler, David | Chairman & CEO | Direct | Sell | 9212026 | 1574.21 | 33,841 | 53,272,704 | 602,708,369 | Form |
| 3 | Visoso, Luis Felipe | EVP & CFO | Direct | Sell | 9162026 | 1568.83 | 1,000 | 1,568,830 | 205,479,078 | Form |
| 4 | Goeckeler, David | Chairman & CEO | Direct | Sell | 9162026 | 1527.87 | 33,838 | 51,700,130 | 631,637,532 | Form |
| 5 | Shek, Bernard | Chief Legal Officer & Secty | Direct | Sell | 9082026 | 1767.33 | 2,308 | 4,078,998 | 44,722,286 | Form |
| 6 | Ilkbahar, Alper | EVP & Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 9082026 | 1563.89 | 400 | 625,557 | 68,395,301 | Form |
| 7 | Ilkbahar, Alper | EVP & Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 9082026 | 1540.58 | 4,712 | 7,259,191 | 67,991,751 | Form |
| 8 | Shek, Bernard | Chief Legal Officer & Secty | Direct | Sell | 9022026 | 1525.60 | 600 | 915,360 | 45,591,030 | Form |
| 9 | Shek, Bernard | Chief Legal Officer & Secty | Direct | Sell | 8042026 | 1162.16 | 600 | 697,296 | 35,928,176 | Form |
| 10 | Shek, Bernard | Chief Legal Officer & Secty | Direct | Sell | 7022026 | 2088.00 | 600 | 1,252,800 | 65,803,320 | Form |
| 11 | Shek, Bernard | Chief Legal Officer & Secty | Direct | Sell | 6052026 | 1736.00 | 600 | 1,041,600 | 55,954,752 | Form |
| 12 | Ilkbahar, Alper | EVP, Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 6022026 | 1756.58 | 2,000 | 3,513,153 | 92,531,178 | Form |
| 13 | Pokorny, Michael | VP, Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 5142026 | 1426.18 | 2,446 | 3,488,436 | 31,910,778 | Form |
| 14 | Sayiner, Necip | Direct | Sell | 5112026 | 1503.11 | 579 | 870,301 | 4,359,019 | Form | |
| 15 | Suzuki, Miyuki | Direct | Sell | 2262026 | 627.53 | 3,500 | 2,196,360 | 6,216,953 | Form | |
| 16 | Sayiner, Necip | Direct | Sell | 12042025 | 195.14 | 1,271 | 248,027 | 678,902 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 1, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oxbow Capital Management (HK) Ltd | $110.5 Mil | 29.8% | 6 | TRIM -41.0% | 13F |
| AIGH Capital Management LLC | $127.1 Mil | 26.0% | 79 | TRIM -28.6% | 13F |
| Situational Awareness Partners LP | $724.4 Mil | 18.8% | 26 | New | 13F |
| Situational Awareness LP | $724.4 Mil | 18.8% | 26 | ADD +8.2% | 13F |
| Amanah Holdings Trust | $158.8 Mil | 17.5% | 20 | Hold | 13F |
| Madison Avenue Partners, LP | $393.3 Mil | 17.1% | 27 | TRIM -56.8% | 13F |
| Anatole Investment Management Ltd | $122.5 Mil | 17.1% | 15 | TRIM -28.2% | 13F |
| KCM Capital Inc | $82.6 Mil | 15.4% | 31 | TRIM -46.2% | 13F |
| Anther Capital Ltd | $565.2 Mil | 14.8% | 31 | New | 13F |
| WT Asset Management Ltd | $526.6 Mil | 11.0% | 32 | ADD +293.3% | 13F |
| Trybe Capital Management LP | $43.6 Mil | 9.9% | 6 | New | 13F |
| E20 Capital Ltd | $81.1 Mil | 7.6% | 22 | New | 13F |
| Whale Rock Capital Management LLC | $508.0 Mil | 6.6% | 35 | TRIM -20.3% | 13F |
| Talos Eurisko Asset Management LP | $33.3 Mil | 5.7% | 23 | New | 13F |
| Alta Park Capital, LP | $33.1 Mil | 5.3% | 24 | TRIM -73.7% | 13F |
| Evergreen Quality Fund GP, Ltd. | $224.8 Mil | 5.1% | 40 | TRIM -67.2% | 13F |
| Monolith Management Ltd | $13.0 Mil | 5.0% | 31 | ADD +26.5% | 13F |
| CloudAlpha Capital Management Limited/Hong Kong | $44.8 Mil | 4.9% | 37 | TRIM -75.3% | 13F |
| Tyro Capital Management LLC | $15.9 Mil | 4.0% | 23 | New | 13F |
| Tairen Capital Ltd | $33.3 Mil | 3.6% | 44 | TRIM -63.3% | 13F |
| Castle Hook Partners LP | $175.9 Mil | 3.6% | 44 | ADD +3741.0% | 13F |
| Blue Whale Capital LLP | $72.8 Mil | 3.5% | 26 | New | 13F |
| Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc. | $105.8 Mil | 3.4% | 44 | TRIM -65.9% | 13F |
| UNICOM Systems, Inc. | $32.3 Mil | 3.3% | 32 | New | 13F |
| Melqart Asset Management (UK) Ltd | $31.3 Mil | 3.1% | 41 | TRIM -22.3% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Situational Awareness Partners LP | $724.4 Mil | 18.8% | 26 | New | 13F |
| Anther Capital Ltd | $565.2 Mil | 14.8% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Appaloosa LP | $178.7 Mil | 3.0% | 31 | New | 13F |
| E20 Capital Ltd | $81.1 Mil | 7.6% | 22 | New | 13F |
| Blue Whale Capital LLP | $72.8 Mil | 3.5% | 26 | New | 13F |
| Trybe Capital Management LP | $43.6 Mil | 9.9% | 6 | New | 13F |
| Scge Management, L.P. | $40.0 Mil | 1.2% | 21 | New | 13F |
| Southpoint Capital Advisors LP | $38.1 Mil | 0.8% | 41 | New | 13F |
| Talos Eurisko Asset Management LP | $33.3 Mil | 5.7% | 23 | New | 13F |
| UNICOM Systems, Inc. | $32.3 Mil | 3.3% | 32 | New | 13F |
| Kinetic Partners Management, LP | $31.3 Mil | 1.7% | 49 | New | 13F |
| Stony Point Capital LLC | $25.2 Mil | 2.0% | 31 | New | 13F |
| SRS Investment Management, LLC | $22.3 Mil | 0.2% | 29 | New | 13F |
| Analog Century Management LP | $21.2 Mil | 1.0% | 25 | New | 13F |
| Tyro Capital Management LLC | $15.9 Mil | 4.0% | 23 | New | 13F |
| Science & Technology Partners, L.P. | $5.9 Mil | 1.5% | 42 | New | 13F |
| Castle Hook Partners LP | $175.9 Mil | 3.6% | 44 | ADD +3741.0% | 13F |
| WT Asset Management Ltd | $526.6 Mil | 11.0% | 32 | ADD +293.3% | 13F |
| Monolith Management Ltd | $13.0 Mil | 5.0% | 31 | ADD +26.5% | 13F |
| Situational Awareness LP | $724.4 Mil | 18.8% | 26 | ADD +8.2% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FengHe Fund Management Pte. Ltd. | $102.5 Mil | 5.8% | 38 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| KADENSA CAPITAL Ltd | $7.4 Mil | 0.8% | 43 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Trivest Advisors Ltd | $10.9 Mil | 0.8% | 29 | TRIM -96.4% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| CloudAlpha Capital Management Limited/Hong Kong | $44.8 Mil | 4.9% | 37 | TRIM -75.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Alta Park Capital, LP | $33.1 Mil | 5.3% | 24 | TRIM -73.7% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Evergreen Quality Fund GP, Ltd. | $224.8 Mil | 5.1% | 40 | TRIM -67.2% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc. | $105.8 Mil | 3.4% | 44 | TRIM -65.9% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Tairen Capital Ltd | $33.3 Mil | 3.6% | 44 | TRIM -63.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Madison Avenue Partners, LP | $393.3 Mil | 17.1% | 27 | TRIM -56.8% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| KCM Capital Inc | $82.6 Mil | 15.4% | 31 | TRIM -46.2% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Oxbow Capital Management (HK) Ltd | $110.5 Mil | 29.8% | 6 | TRIM -41.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| AIGH Capital Management LLC | $127.1 Mil | 26.0% | 79 | TRIM -28.6% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Anatole Investment Management Ltd | $122.5 Mil | 17.1% | 15 | TRIM -28.2% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Artemis Wealth Advisors, LLC | $8.9 Mil | 1.3% | 44 | TRIM -26.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Melqart Asset Management (UK) Ltd | $31.3 Mil | 3.1% | 41 | TRIM -22.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Whale Rock Capital Management LLC | $508.0 Mil | 6.6% | 35 | TRIM -20.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Situational Awareness Partners LP | $724.4 Mil | 18.8% | 26 | New | 13F |
| Situational Awareness LP | $724.4 Mil | 18.8% | 26 | ADD +8.2% | 13F |
| Anther Capital Ltd | $565.2 Mil | 14.8% | 31 | New | 13F |
| WT Asset Management Ltd | $526.6 Mil | 11.0% | 32 | ADD +293.3% | 13F |
| Whale Rock Capital Management LLC | $508.0 Mil | 6.6% | 35 | TRIM -20.3% | 13F |
| Madison Avenue Partners, LP | $393.3 Mil | 17.1% | 27 | TRIM -56.8% | 13F |
| Evergreen Quality Fund GP, Ltd. | $224.8 Mil | 5.1% | 40 | TRIM -67.2% | 13F |
| Appaloosa LP | $178.7 Mil | 3.0% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Castle Hook Partners LP | $175.9 Mil | 3.6% | 44 | ADD +3741.0% | 13F |
| Amanah Holdings Trust | $158.8 Mil | 17.5% | 20 | Hold | 13F |
| AIGH Capital Management LLC | $127.1 Mil | 26.0% | 79 | TRIM -28.6% | 13F |
| Anatole Investment Management Ltd | $122.5 Mil | 17.1% | 15 | TRIM -28.2% | 13F |
| Oxbow Capital Management (HK) Ltd | $110.5 Mil | 29.8% | 6 | TRIM -41.0% | 13F |
| Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc. | $105.8 Mil | 3.4% | 44 | TRIM -65.9% | 13F |
| KCM Capital Inc | $82.6 Mil | 15.4% | 31 | TRIM -46.2% | 13F |
| E20 Capital Ltd | $81.1 Mil | 7.6% | 22 | New | 13F |
| Blue Whale Capital LLP | $72.8 Mil | 3.5% | 26 | New | 13F |
| CloudAlpha Capital Management Limited/Hong Kong | $44.8 Mil | 4.9% | 37 | TRIM -75.3% | 13F |
| Trybe Capital Management LP | $43.6 Mil | 9.9% | 6 | New | 13F |
| Scge Management, L.P. | $40.0 Mil | 1.2% | 21 | New | 13F |
| Southpoint Capital Advisors LP | $38.1 Mil | 0.8% | 41 | New | 13F |
| Tairen Capital Ltd | $33.3 Mil | 3.6% | 44 | TRIM -63.3% | 13F |
| Talos Eurisko Asset Management LP | $33.3 Mil | 5.7% | 23 | New | 13F |
| Alta Park Capital, LP | $33.1 Mil | 5.3% | 24 | TRIM -73.7% | 13F |
| UNICOM Systems, Inc. | $32.3 Mil | 3.3% | 32 | New | 13F |
SNDK Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
SanDisk is executing a fundamental business model shift, locking in a minimum of $93.9 billion in future revenue through new long-term agreements. This pivot to a more predictable, high-margin supplier for AI infrastructure is driving explosive growth. While the market remains skeptical of its durability, the contractual backing provides a strong foundation for continued performance.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Vertically Integrated Technology Hardware Manufacturer (transitioning to Contractual Supplier)(Volume of Exabytes Sold) x (Blended Average Selling Price per Exabyte) Mix shift to high-value Datacenter products and pricing power from the severe supply/demand imbalance.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests a structural change is underway, converting a cyclical boom into a more predictable, high-margin franchise.
- Datacenter revenue grew 1,685% year-over-year in the most recent quarter.
- NBMs are expected to cover approximately two-thirds of bits in fiscal 2028.
- The NBM pipeline already exceeds the company's supply capacity through the end of the decade.
- Latest-quarter gross margin reached 85%, with guidance for 84.5% to 85.5% next quarter.
PRIMARY RISK
The market may be correct that current performance is an unsustainable cyclical peak, with margins and growth set to revert to historical, volatile norms.
- The stock fell 18% after its latest earnings report despite beating and raising guidance.
- Competitor Micron has 4.6 times SanDisk's revenue and a much larger absolute R&D budget.
- Peers like Micron are also locking in customers, with over 75% of its FY27 shipments committed.
- The business remains dependent on a single joint venture with Kioxia for all wafer supply.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Datacenter Revenue Growth | $4.8 billion for the quarter ended October 2, 2026 - Accelerating | Datacenter growth is showing massive acceleration, with the 1,685% year-over-year growth in the latest quarter representing a significant step-up from prior periods. Sequential growth also remains very strong at 61%, building on a 103% sequential increase in the prior quarter. Management attributes this to the rapid growth of AI infrastructure driving demand for high-performance storage. |
| New Business Model (NBM) Adoption | Approximately 50% of fiscal 2027 bits and two-thirds of fiscal 2028 bits are committed under NBMs. - Stable | Management has rapidly signed a series of multiyear supply agreements, transforming the business model. In the third quarter of fiscal 2026, over a third of FY27 bits were committed; by the fourth quarter, this rose to over 50%. The pipeline for new NBMs is described as exceeding available supply through the end of the decade, indicating strong customer interest in securing long-term capacity. |
| New Business Model (NBM) Bit Coverage | more than 50% for fiscal year 2027 and approximately 2/3 for fiscal year 2028 (as of Q4 FY2026 earnings call) | The percentage of planned production volume contractually committed under long-term agreements, indicating future revenue visibility and stability. |
| Remaining Performance Obligation (RPO) | $59.8 billion (End of Q4 FY2026) | The total minimum contractual revenue from signed NBMs that has not yet been recognized, providing a direct measure of locked-in future revenue. |
Structural Shift vs. Cyclical Peak
BULL VIEW
Bulls believe the $93.9 billion in minimum contracted NBM revenue represents a permanent de-risking of the business model, justifying a higher, more stable valuation.
CORE TENSION
Can the structural support from new contracts offset the market's deep-seated belief in memory-industry cyclicality, which punished the last two earnings reports despite stellar results?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bulls. The company continues to sign new NBMs and raised its Q2 revenue guidance by 17.5% at the midpoint, showing accelerating near-term momentum.
BEAR VIEW
Bears see the stock's 18% post-earnings drop as proof the market believes 85% gross margins are unsustainable and that NBMs will not protect the company in a true downturn.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
12/1/2026 | Peer NetApp Earnings Report Watch: Peer NetApp (NTAP) is scheduled to report earnings. |
12/2/2026 | Peer HPE Earnings Report Watch: Peer Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) is scheduled to report earnings. |
12/15/2026 | Peer Read-Across on NAND Market Watch: Micron's commentary on data center demand, NAND pricing trends, and any change in its capital expenditure plans. |
1/27/2027 | Market Skepticism on Durability Watch: The stock's price reaction to the Q2 earnings report and Q3 guidance, regardless of the results' quality. |
1/27/2027 | Consumer Segment Contraction Watch: The sequential and year-over-year growth rate for the Consumer segment in the next earnings report. |
No set date | Potential US Tariff Impact Watch: |
November 19 | Stock Split Distribution Watch: The company's Board of Directors has approved an 8-for-1 stock split, with additional shares expected to be distributed. |
November 20 | Split-Adjusted Trading Begins Watch: Trading on a split-adjusted basis is expected to begin following the 8-for-1 stock split. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-10-29 | Q1 Earnings Beat, Stock Drop Details: On October 29, the company reported Q1 FY27 revenue of $11 billion and raised guidance for Q2 revenue and EPS. Despite the strong results, the stock had a two-day negative reaction of -18.0%. | -18.1% $1404.77 -> $1150.89 |
2026-09-14 | NBM Progress Quantified Details: A September 14 news report stated that NBM agreements covered about half of projected fiscal 2027 bit shipments and roughly two-thirds of fiscal 2028 bits. | -6.3% $1633.35 -> $1530.90 |
2026-08-13 | Investor Day and Long-Term Guidance Details: At its August 13 Investor Day, the company forecast revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-teens percentage rate from fiscal years 2028 to 2030. | +22.1% $1344.29 -> $1641.11 |
2026-08-05 | Negative Q4 Earnings Reaction Details: Despite a strong Q4 FY26 earnings report on August 5, the stock had a two-day negative reaction of -12.0%. The Board also authorized an additional $14.0 billion share repurchase program. | -11.8% $1427.62 -> $1258.58 |
2026-07-03 | BiCS10 Production Milestone Details: On July 3, the company and partner Kioxia announced the start of production for their 10th-generation 3D Flash memory technology at the Kitakami Plant Fab2 in Japan. | -14.2% $2032.22 -> $1744.43 |
2026-06-08 | Analyst Price Target Upgrade Details: An analyst note reported on June 8 lifted its price objective to $2,100 from $1,550, citing robust NAND demand, favorable pricing, and new long-term supply agreements. | +5.6% $1559.32 -> $1646.54 |
2026-05-05 | Shift to NBM Contracts Details: News reports in May noted the company was rapidly shifting to multiyear New Business Model (NBM) contracts to mitigate volatility as NAND prices began to normalize. | +12.3% $1255.86 -> $1409.98 |
Position Sizing
1% - 2%
MINIMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: SNDK trades at roughly 80% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 10% for the S&P 500 (7.8x the market). A 1% - 2% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
MU - Micron Technology, Inc.
Large-Scale IncumbentMicron offers exposure to the same industry tailwinds but with 4.6 times the revenue scale and a significantly larger absolute R&D budget of $5.7 billion.
STX - Seagate Technology
Broader Storage ExposureSeagate provides exposure to the data storage theme through a focus on high-capacity hard disk drives (HDDs), which serve a different but complementary role in the data center.
SanDisk is no longer a cyclical commodity memory chip maker; it is a strategic, contract-backed supplier of critical infrastructure for the AI buildout.
SanDisk has successfully pivoted its business model to capitalize on the AI-driven explosion in data storage demand. Through multi-year "New Business Models" (NBMs) with key data center and edge customers, the company has locked in a significant portion of its future production at attractive margins. This provides unprecedented revenue visibility and dampens the historical boom-bust cycle of the NAND market, transforming the company into a more durable, high-cash-flow franchise.
Announcements of new or extended NBMs, particularly with leading AI companies, and continued strength in Datacenter revenue growth.
A major NBM customer defaulting, a significant slowdown in AI infrastructure spending, or a competitor leapfrogging SanDisk's BiCS technology, leading to share loss.
Short-term unit fluctuations in the consumer or non-NBM PC/smartphone markets, which the company is de-emphasizing.
Repricing Catalyst
The market's recognition of the new, more predictable and profitable business model, potentially leading to a valuation re-rating away from a cyclical commodity multiple.
Single segment
$20.2B TTM (100% of Total)What It Is
The company sells its portfolio of NAND flash storage solutions (SSDs, embedded products, cards, USB drives, wafers) across three primary end markets: "Datacenter" (public/private cloud, enterprise), "Edge" (OEMs for PCs, mobile, gaming, automotive), and "Consumer" (retail and end-users).
Who Pays & How
Cloud service providers, enterprise customers, and OEMs pay for storage solutions to power their infrastructure and devices. They choose SanDisk for its technology leadership (BiCS architecture), broad product portfolio, and, for large customers, supply assurance via new long-term agreements.
Competition
Industry Resources
| Information Technology Resources |
| TechCrunch |
| Wired |
| CIO |
| MIT Technology Review |
| Gartner Insights |
| Ars Technica |
| Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Resources |
| The Verge |
| TechRadar |
| Tom’s Hardware |
| PCMag |
| CNET |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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