Palantir Technologies (PLTR)
Market Price (11/5/2026): $170.32 | Market Cap: $410.4 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Palantir Technologies (PLTR)
Market Price (11/5/2026): $170.32Market Cap: $410.4 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 87% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 46% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 56%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 56%, CFO LTM is 4.1 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.1 Bil Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, Cloud Computing, Digital Health & Telemedicine, Show more. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 57x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 124x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 101x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 113x Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.4% Short seller report Key risksPLTR key risks include [1] its exceptionally high valuation, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 87% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 46% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 56%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 56%, CFO LTM is 4.1 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.1 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, Cloud Computing, Digital Health & Telemedicine, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 57x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 124x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 101x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 113x |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.4% |
| Short seller report |
| Key risksPLTR key risks include [1] its exceptionally high valuation, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Palantir Technologies (PLTR) stock has gained about 40% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Palantir's fiscal Q3 2026 (ended September 30, 2026) results significantly surpassed market expectations, driving investor confidence. The company reported revenue of $2.313 billion, representing a 96% year-over-year increase, exceeding both analyst consensus of $2.18 billion by 6.1% and its own guidance. Adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) reached $0.44, outperforming analyst estimates of $0.41 by 7.3%.
2. The company raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance and saw accelerating growth in its U.S. commercial sector. Palantir increased its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to between $8.530 billion and $8.534 billion, implying 91% annual growth, up from its previous outlook of approximately $8.15 billion to $8.16 billion. This upward revision was bolstered by a substantial 148% year-over-year growth in U.S. commercial revenue, reaching $984 million in fiscal Q3 2026, which surpassed U.S. government revenue for the first time.
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Palantir Technologies (PLTR) stock has gained about 40% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Palantir's fiscal Q3 2026 (ended September 30, 2026) results significantly surpassed market expectations, driving investor confidence. The company reported revenue of $2.313 billion, representing a 96% year-over-year increase, exceeding both analyst consensus of $2.18 billion by 6.1% and its own guidance. Adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) reached $0.44, outperforming analyst estimates of $0.41 by 7.3%.
2. The company raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance and saw accelerating growth in its U.S. commercial sector. Palantir increased its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to between $8.530 billion and $8.534 billion, implying 91% annual growth, up from its previous outlook of approximately $8.15 billion to $8.16 billion. This upward revision was bolstered by a substantial 148% year-over-year growth in U.S. commercial revenue, reaching $984 million in fiscal Q3 2026, which surpassed U.S. government revenue for the first time.
3. Continued strong demand for Palantir's Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) contributed to its growth. The company attributed its record fiscal Q3 2026 financial results to "unprecedented demand for its AI platform and Sovereign AI offerings." Additionally, Palantir secured over $1 billion in U.S. government contracts in fiscal year 2026, including up to $244 million in additional funding from the Pentagon in August 2026, and an increased budget ceiling for the Maven AI targeting platform to approximately $1.3 billion.
4. Analyst sentiment improved with multiple firms raising their price targets on PLTR stock. Following Palantir's performance, several financial institutions revised their outlook positively. Barclays raised its price objective from $265.00 to $273.00 on November 4, 2026, maintaining an "overweight" rating. Oppenheimer increased its price target to $235.00 from $200.00 on October 29, 2026, with an "outperform" rating, while DA Davidson reissued a "buy" rating with a $250.00 price objective. Truist Securities also raised its price target to $250 from $233, citing Palantir as "one of the clearest data points on AI value creation."
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 39.5% change in PLTR stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 39.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 123.06 | 171.70 | 39.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,224 | 7,288 | 39.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 43.7% | 50.3% | 15.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 129.1 | 112.6 | -12.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,394 | 2,406 | -0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 39.5% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PLTR | 39.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.6% | 54.2% |
| Sector (XLK) | 0.7% | 60.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 23.4% change in PLTR stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 62.8% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 139.11 | 171.70 | 23.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,475 | 7,288 | 62.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 36.3% | 50.3% | 38.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 204.3 | 112.6 | -44.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,387 | 2,406 | -0.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 23.4% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PLTR | 23.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.0% | 35.6% |
| Sector (XLK) | 10.8% | 34.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -14.4% change in PLTR stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/4/2026 was primarily driven by a -81.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 200.47 | 171.70 | -14.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,441 | 7,288 | 111.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 22.2% | 50.3% | 126.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 621.2 | 112.6 | -81.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,365 | 2,406 | -1.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -14.4% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PLTR | -14.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.4% | 41.6% |
| Sector (XLK) | 17.9% | 43.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 1060.1% change in PLTR stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 268.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 14.80 | 171.70 | 1060.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,045 | 7,288 | 256.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 15.4 | 56.7 | 268.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,128 | 2,406 | -11.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 1060.1% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PLTR | 1060.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 89.7% | 49.3% |
| Sector (XLK) | 119.1% | 48.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PLTR Return | -23% | -65% | 167% | 340% | 135% | -3% | 629% |
| Peers Return | 31% | -33% | 52% | 22% | 33% | 9% | 137% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 102% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PLTR Win Rate | 33% | 42% | 67% | 67% | 75% | 45% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 32% | 67% | 58% | 52% | 45% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 36% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PLTR Max Drawdown | -54% | -68% | -30% | -23% | -41% | -41% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -18% | -43% | -18% | -26% | -27% | -33% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, SNOW, IBM. See PLTR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/4/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PLTR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.4% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 21 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -15.2% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.0% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 3 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -15.6% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.6% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 10 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -63.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 176.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 446 days | 427 days |
In The Past
Palantir Technologies's stock fell -34.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 51.4% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | PLTR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.4% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 21 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -63.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 176.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 446 days | 427 days |
In The Past
Palantir Technologies's stock fell -34.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 51.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Palantir Technologies (PLTR)
Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) develops and deploys advanced software platforms designed to help organizations analyze vast, complex datasets and identify hidden patterns. Its initial focus and a significant part of its business involve supporting the United States intelligence community in counterterrorism investigations and operations, enabling users to identify threats and facilitate coordinated real-world responses.
The company offers several key products. Palantir Gotham is specifically tailored for government and intelligence agencies, integrating diverse data sources—from signals intelligence to confidential informant reports—to assist analysts and operators. Palantir Foundry serves a broader market, acting as a central operating system for data within various organizations, allowing users to integrate and analyze information to transform operations. Additionally, Palantir provides Apollo, a software platform that enables customers to deploy their own applications virtually in any environment.
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1. Like SAP or Oracle, but focused on being the central operating system for an organization's data, rather than its business processes.
2. A highly specialized Splunk or Microsoft Power BI that identifies hidden patterns in vast, disparate datasets to enable real-world operational responses.
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- Palantir Gotham: A software platform designed for the intelligence community to identify patterns within datasets and facilitate real-world responses to identified threats.
- Palantir Foundry: A platform that serves as a central operating system for an organization's data, enabling users to integrate and analyze data in one place.
- Apollo: Software that allows customers to deploy their own software virtually in any environment.
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Palantir Technologies Inc. sells its software platforms primarily to organizations, including government entities and commercial enterprises, rather than to individuals.
Based on the provided information, its major customers fall into the following categories:
- The Intelligence Community in the United States: This is a primary customer segment for Palantir, for which it builds and deploys software platforms to assist in counterterrorism investigations and operations. This encompasses various U.S. government intelligence agencies.
- Large Organizations and Enterprises: Palantir Foundry is described as a platform that transforms the ways organizations operate by creating a central operating system for their data. This indicates a focus on large commercial companies across different industries, as well as potentially other government departments beyond the intelligence community.
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Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)
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Alexander Karp, Chief Executive Officer
Alexander Karp is a co-founder of Palantir Technologies and has served as CEO since its early days. He earned a J.D. from Stanford Law School and a Ph.D. in neoclassical social theory from Goethe University Frankfurt. Before co-founding Palantir in 2003/2004, Karp established and managed the London-based money management firm Caedmon Group, through which he successfully managed investments for high-net-worth clients.
David Glazer, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer
David Glazer joined Palantir in July 2013 and became Chief Financial Officer in July 2020. Prior to this role, he held various leadership positions within the company, including Head of Finance, Head of Switzerland, and Investor Relations/Global Head of Real Estate. Before joining Palantir, Glazer was a corporate securities attorney at Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati, where he specialized in advising technology companies on IPOs, mergers, and corporate governance. He holds a J.D. from Emory University School of Law and a B.A. from Santa Clara University.
Shyam Sankar, Chief Technology Officer and Executive Vice President
Shyam Sankar joined Palantir Technologies as its 13th employee in 2006. He pioneered the company's "Forward Deployed Engineer" model, which involves embedding engineers directly with clients to address complex data challenges. Sankar holds a B.S. in Electrical and Computer Engineering from Cornell University and an M.S. in Management Science and Engineering from Stanford University. He also serves as Chairman of Ginkgo Bioworks.
Ryan Taylor, Chief Revenue Officer and Chief Legal Officer
Ryan Taylor has been with Palantir since 2010. Before assuming his current roles, he served as Chief Legal and Business Affairs Officer at Palantir from 2020 to 2023. His professional journey includes roles as an Associate at Covington & Burling and a Law Clerk at the United States District Court for the Central District of California. Taylor holds a J.D. from Harvard Law School and degrees in Management Science & Engineering and Computer Science from Stanford University.
Stephen Cohen, President and Secretary
Stephen Cohen is one of the co-founders of Palantir Technologies. He co-founded the company in 2003/2004 alongside Peter Thiel, Alex Karp, Joe Lonsdale, and Nathan Gettings. He has served in various positions with the company since its inception and is also a member of the Board of Directors.
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Key Risks to Palantir Technologies (PLTR)
- Reliance on Government Contracts and Reputational Risks: Palantir Technologies heavily relies on contracts with government agencies, including the intelligence community and defense sectors, which constitute a significant portion of its revenue. This dependence exposes the company to risks associated with changes in government priorities, political shifts, budget cuts, and contract losses. Furthermore, the nature of its work, particularly in surveillance and data analytics for government entities, often raises concerns regarding data privacy, civil liberties, and ethical implications. Public scrutiny and political backlash related to its operations, especially with agencies like Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), can lead to reputational damage and impact its ability to secure new contracts or retain existing ones. Geopolitical tensions can also influence demand for its software, creating unpredictable revenue streams.
- High Valuation and Commercial Growth Uncertainty: Palantir's stock is frequently noted for its "excessively high" or "stretched" valuation, with high price-to-earnings and price-to-sales ratios. This indicates that the company is "priced for perfection," leaving little margin for error and making the stock highly vulnerable to significant corrections if it fails to consistently meet ambitious growth expectations. While Palantir aims to diversify its revenue by expanding its commercial client base through its Foundry platform, this segment faces challenges. The company's software often involves large, complex, and costly implementations, which may limit its appeal to small and mid-sized businesses and slow down the scaling of its commercial operations, thus sustaining its reliance on government spending for overall growth.
- Intensifying Competition and Potential Loss of Differentiation: The data analytics and artificial intelligence (AI) sectors in which Palantir operates are highly competitive and rapidly evolving. The company faces increasing competition from well-established technology giants such as Microsoft, Amazon Web Services (AWS), and Databricks, as well as emerging startups that are developing rival AI platforms and data solutions. This competitive landscape could lead to an erosion of Palantir's pricing power and a loss of its competitive advantage if competitors achieve feature parity or if customers increasingly opt for in-house developed solutions rather than purchasing Palantir's platforms.
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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Palantir Technologies (PLTR) over the next 2-3 years:
- Accelerated Adoption and Expansion of the Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP): Palantir's Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) is consistently highlighted as a primary driver of revenue growth, particularly within the U.S. commercial sector. The company's "bootcamp" go-to-market strategy for AIP is effectively shortening sales cycles and rapidly converting new clients by demonstrating how the platform can integrate generative AI with operational data and workflows to solve real-world business problems. This strategy is enabling triple-digit U.S. commercial growth.
- Strong Growth in U.S. Commercial Business: Palantir's U.S. commercial business, predominantly driven by its Foundry platform, is experiencing significant and accelerating year-over-year revenue increases. This momentum is fueled by strong demand for its AI-driven solutions and the platform's ability to help enterprises turn complex, siloed data into actionable intelligence across various use cases such as supply chain optimization and predictive manufacturing.
- Continued Expansion of Government Contracts: Palantir maintains a strong and growing presence in the government sector, especially with the U.S. government. The Gotham platform continues to be indispensable for governments and defense in mission-critical analytics, integrating vast datasets to identify threats and enhance situational awareness. Securing and expanding large government contracts remains a foundational driver of revenue.
- Increased Customer Lifetime Value and Net Dollar Retention: The company is demonstrating strong customer engagement and expansion, reflected in its high net dollar retention rate and record total contract value (TCV) bookings. Existing customers are increasingly expanding their use of Palantir's platforms, leading to sustained and growing revenue streams as they integrate and apply the software more broadly across their operations.
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Share Repurchases
- Palantir Technologies announced a $1 billion stock buyback program on August 8, 2023, with no specified end date.
- In 2024, the company repurchased and retired 2.1 million shares of its Class A common stock for $64.2 million.
- As of December 31, 2024, $935.8 million remained available for future repurchases under the authorized program.
Share Issuance
- Palantir's annual basic shares outstanding increased to $2.37 billion in 2025, up 5.31% from $2.25 billion in 2024.
- Basic shares outstanding for 2024 increased by 4.78% from $2.147 billion in 2023, which itself was a 4.05% increase from 2022.
- Diluted average shares outstanding grew from $1.9 billion in 2021 to $2.6 billion by the fourth quarter of 2025.
Outbound Investments
- Palantir has engaged in a program of investing in companies, including those going public via SPACs, in exchange for multi-year commitments to use its software.
- As of June 30, [year not specified, but context suggests 2021], the company committed $250 million to a group of 10 companies through SPACs, with potential commercial contracts valued at $428 million.
- No investments were purchased under Investment Agreements during the fiscal years ended December 31, 2025, or 2024.
Capital Expenditures
- Palantir Technologies' annual capital expenditures were $33.88 million in 2025, $12.63 million in 2024, and $15.11 million in 2023.
- In 2022, the company's capital expenditures were $40.03 million.
- Palantir is characterized as a "capital-light software player" maintaining minimal capital expenditures.
Peer Outperformance in Application Software
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electronic Manufacturing Services | 10 | 17.2% | 109.4% | 187.6% | FLEX 488% · TTMI 419% · JBL 311% |
| Technology Distributors | 9 | 52.3% | 67.5% | 72.9% | AVT 148% · SNX 123% · CNXN 99% |
| Electronic Components | 24 | 16.4% | 69.6% | 35.2% | CLS 2134% · BELFA 1016% · APH 318% |
| Communications Equipment | 36 | 8.7% | 75.7% | 31.6% | LITE 609% · AAOI 586% · ANET 445% |
| Semiconductor Materials & Equipment | 28 | 42.7% | 55.4% | 31.5% | AXTI 418% · LRCX 289% · KLAC 284% |
| Electronic Equipment & Instruments | 27 | -2.2% | 28.0% | 4.3% | PI 130% · OSIS 116% · CXT 71% |
| Semiconductors | 55 | 2.3% | 45.5% | 1.3% | MU 1027% · NVDA 575% · AVGO 548% |
| Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals | 21 | 7.9% | 85.9% | -14.2% | WDC 691% · DELL 652% · STX 574% |
| Internet Services & Infrastructure | 6 | 3.5% | 45.5% | -20.9% | GDDY 58% · VRSN 40% · DOCN -20% |
| IT Consulting & Other Services | 30 | -18.2% | 1.2% | -26.5% | APLD 303% · IBM 155% · GIB -8% |
| Application Software ← | 126 | -9.9% | -6.3% | -50.0% | PLTR 549% · AGYS 157% · FROG 144% |
| Systems Software | 70 | -8.4% | 24.1% | -51.9% | ZETA 255% · CRWD 245% · CVLT 146% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 277.38 |
| Mkt Cap | 1,638.4 |
| Rev LTM | 208,158 |
| Op Inc LTM | 58,587 |
| FCF LTM | 9,036 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 7,432 |
| CFO LTM | 92,066 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 75,765 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 20.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 16.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 21.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 23.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 23.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 25.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 22.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 30.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 18.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1,638.4 |
| P/S | 9.7 |
| P/Op Inc | 24.0 |
| P/EBIT | 17.7 |
| P/E | 21.4 |
| P/CFO | 20.4 |
| Total Yield | 4.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.6% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 2.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 20.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 5.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 92.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 5.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 18.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -6.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 19.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Government | 2,402 | 1,570 | 1,222 | 1,072 | 897 |
| Commercial | 2,073 | 1,296 | 1,003 | 834 | 645 |
| Total | 4,475 | 2,866 | 2,225 | 1,906 | 1,542 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Government | 1,576 | 948 | 725 | 621 | 542 |
| Commercial | 1,367 | 772 | 521 | 414 | 358 |
| Research and development expenses | -421 | -343 | -307 | -266 | -237 |
| General and administrative expenses | -424 | -375 | -343 | -366 | -295 |
| Stock-based compensation expense | -684 | -692 | -476 | -565 | -778 |
| Total | 1,414 | 310 | 120 | -161 | -411 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $171.70 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 413.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/30/2020 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -17.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $186.84 | $153.61 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -8.1% | 11.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 49.0% | 60.7% |
| Downside Capture | 165.76 | 239.74 |
| Upside Capture | 265.21 | 192.42 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 54.6% | 43.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 3.07 | 2.38 | 4.14 | 2.01 | 2.02 | 2.11 |
| Up Beta | 1.14 | 3.10 | 8.36 | 3.40 | 1.99 | 2.06 |
| Down Beta | 4.60 | 4.13 | 3.49 | 1.74 | 1.52 | 1.66 |
| Up Capture | 277% | 187% | 535% | 224% | 328% | 8238% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 61 | 126 | 397 |
| Down Capture | 239% | 160% | 175% | 133% | 160% | 112% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 22 | 32 | 65 | 125 | 351 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PLTR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | -17.2% | 60.7% | -0.09 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 17.5% | 27.3% | 0.56 | 43.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.2% | 12.9% | 0.68 | 41.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 1.0% | 28.8% | 0.03 | 21.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 35.9% | 21.2% | 1.34 | 0.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.3% | 14.1% | 0.70 | -2.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -28.2% | 43.4% | -0.65 | 35.1% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PLTR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | 47.0% | 66.9% | 0.84 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 18.1% | 26.2% | 0.62 | 53.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.5% | 17.2% | 0.55 | 53.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.3% | 19.1% | 0.73 | 9.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.0% | 19.6% | 0.29 | 7.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.8% | 18.9% | -0.01 | 31.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.5% | 51.5% | 0.29 | 32.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PLTR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | 33.6% | 69.7% | 0.97 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 23.4% | 25.2% | 0.85 | 48.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 46.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.9% | 16.5% | 0.59 | 8.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.4% | 18.1% | 0.33 | 6.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 26.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 61.0% | 66.2% | 1.01 | 25.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 11/5/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/2/2026 | -1.6% | ||
| 8/3/2026 | 29.5% | 39.5% | 43.2% |
| 5/4/2026 | -6.9% | -6.3% | -2.6% |
| 2/2/2026 | 6.8% | -3.3% | 3.7% |
| 11/3/2025 | -7.9% | -6.5% | -14.1% |
| 8/4/2025 | 7.8% | 13.7% | -3.6% |
| 5/5/2025 | -12.0% | -4.3% | 5.0% |
| 2/3/2025 | 24.0% | 39.3% | 7.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| # Negative | 12 | 11 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 20.4% | 23.0% | 30.9% |
| Median Negative | -11.8% | -12.3% | -11.9% |
| Max Positive | 30.8% | 49.8% | 89.8% |
| Max Negative | -21.3% | -16.9% | -36.4% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/2/2026 | -1.6% | ||
| 8/3/2026 | 29.5% | 39.5% | 43.2% |
| 5/4/2026 | -6.9% | -6.3% | -2.6% |
| 2/2/2026 | 6.8% | -3.3% | 3.7% |
| 11/3/2025 | -7.9% | -6.5% | -14.1% |
| 8/4/2025 | 7.8% | 13.7% | -3.6% |
| 5/5/2025 | -12.0% | -4.3% | 5.0% |
| 2/3/2025 | 24.0% | 39.3% | 7.6% |
| 11/4/2024 | 23.5% | 45.5% | 68.7% |
| 8/5/2024 | 10.4% | 22.0% | 27.0% |
| 5/6/2024 | -15.1% | -16.9% | -8.9% |
| 2/5/2024 | 30.8% | 49.8% | 56.5% |
| 11/2/2023 | 20.4% | 23.9% | 35.9% |
| 8/7/2023 | -5.3% | -12.6% | -15.0% |
| 5/8/2023 | 23.4% | 23.0% | 89.8% |
| 2/13/2023 | 21.2% | 11.3% | 3.8% |
| 11/7/2022 | -11.5% | 6.1% | -11.9% |
| 8/8/2022 | -14.2% | -13.4% | -36.4% |
| 5/9/2022 | -21.3% | -12.0% | -3.7% |
| 2/17/2022 | -15.7% | -15.3% | -8.2% |
| 11/9/2021 | -9.3% | -12.5% | -25.9% |
| 8/12/2021 | 11.4% | 13.1% | 17.6% |
| 5/11/2021 | 9.4% | 10.8% | 30.9% |
| 2/16/2021 | -12.8% | -12.3% | -19.7% |
| 11/12/2020 | 8.4% | 30.2% | 86.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| # Negative | 12 | 11 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 20.4% | 23.0% | 30.9% |
| Median Negative | -11.8% | -12.3% | -11.9% |
| Max Positive | 30.8% | 49.8% | 89.8% |
| Max Negative | -21.3% | -16.9% | -36.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/03/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/17/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/18/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/20/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/21/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/03/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/17/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/18/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/20/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/21/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/24/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/09/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/12/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/12/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/26/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/13/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 09/30/2020 | 424B4 |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 11/3/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 11/2/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 Adjusted Income from Operations | Reported | 1.64 Bil | 1.64 Bil | 1.64 Bil | 26.9% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.29 Bil for Q3 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Revenue | Reported | 2.65 Bil | 2.65 Bil | 2.65 Bil | 22.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 2.16 Bil for Q3 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Income from Operations | Reported | 5.25 Bil | 5.25 Bil | 5.25 Bil | 7.2% | Raised | Guidance: 4.89 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 8.53 Bil | 8.53 Bil | 8.53 Bil | 4.6% | Raised | Guidance: 8.15 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | 91.0% | Raised | |||||
| 2026 U.S. Commercial Revenue | Reported | 3.56 Bil | 3.56 Bil | 3.9% | Raised | Guidance: 3.42 Bil for 2026 | ||
| 2026 U.S. Commercial Revenue Growth | Reported | 143.0% | 143.0% | 9.0% | Raised | Guidance: 134.0% for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Adjusted Free Cash Flow | Reported | 4.80 Bil | 4.90 Bil | 5.00 Bil | 6.5% | Raised | Guidance: 4.60 Bil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/3/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Adjusted Income from Operations | Reported | 1.29 Bil | 1.29 Bil | 1.30 Bil | ||||
| Q3 2026 Revenue | Reported | 2.16 Bil | 2.16 Bil | 2.16 Bil | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted Income from Operations | Reported | 4.89 Bil | 4.89 Bil | 4.90 Bil | 10.1% | Raised | Guidance: 4.45 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 8.15 Bil | 8.15 Bil | 8.16 Bil | 6.5% | Raised | Guidance: 7.66 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 U.S. Commercial Revenue | Reported | 3.42 Bil | 6.2% | Raised | Guidance: 3.22 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 U.S. Commercial Revenue Growth | Reported | 134.0% | 14.0% | Raised | Guidance: 120.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted Free Cash Flow | Reported | 4.50 Bil | 4.60 Bil | 4.70 Bil | 7.0% | Raised | Guidance: 4.30 Bil for 2026 | |
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Adjusted Income from Operations | Reported | 1.06 Bil | 1.06 Bil | 1.07 Bil | ||||
| Q2 2026 Revenue | Reported | 1.80 Bil | 1.80 Bil | 1.80 Bil | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted Income from Operations | Reported | 4.44 Bil | 4.45 Bil | 4.45 Bil | 7.5% | Raised | Guidance: 4.13 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 7.65 Bil | 7.66 Bil | 7.66 Bil | 6.5% | Raised | Guidance: 7.19 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 U.S. Commercial Revenue | Reported | 3.22 Bil | 2.5% | Raised | Guidance: 3.14 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted Free Cash Flow | Reported | 4.20 Bil | 4.30 Bil | 4.40 Bil | 6.8% | Raised | Guidance: 4.03 Bil for 2026 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/2/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted Income from Operations | Reported | 870.00 Mil | 872.00 Mil | 874.00 Mil | 25.1% | Higher New | Guidance: 697.00 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | Reported | 1.53 Bil | 1.53 Bil | 1.54 Bil | 15.4% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.33 Bil for Q4 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Income from Operations | Reported | 4.13 Bil | 4.13 Bil | 4.14 Bil | 92.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 2.15 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 7.18 Bil | 7.19 Bil | 7.20 Bil | 63.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 4.40 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 U.S. Commercial Revenue | Reported | 3.14 Bil | 119.4% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.43 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 U.S. Commercial Revenue Growth | Reported | 115.0% | 11.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 104.0% for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted Free Cash Flow | Reported | 3.92 Bil | 4.03 Bil | 4.12 Bil | 101.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 2.00 Bil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 11/4/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stat, Lauren Elaina Friedman | Direct | Sell | 11042026 | 186.29 | 1,358 | 252,982 | 8,391,247 | Form | |
| 2 | Moore, Alexander D | Direct | Sell | 10192026 | 197.99 | 16,000 | 3,167,867 | 207,316,087 | Form | |
| 3 | Woersching, Eric H | Direct | Sell | 10142026 | 205.00 | 1,000 | 205,000 | 710,325 | Form | |
| 4 | Stat, Lauren Elaina Friedman | Direct | Sell | 10132026 | 199.00 | 5,026 | 1,000,174 | 9,233,998 | Form | |
| 5 | Taylor, Ryan D | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 10132026 | 201.15 | 18,000 | 3,620,700 | 55,249,267 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stat, Lauren Elaina Friedman | Direct | Sell | 11042026 | 186.29 | 1,358 | 252,982 | 8,391,247 | Form | |
| 2 | Moore, Alexander D | Direct | Sell | 10192026 | 197.99 | 16,000 | 3,167,867 | 207,316,087 | Form | |
| 3 | Woersching, Eric H | Direct | Sell | 10142026 | 205.00 | 1,000 | 205,000 | 710,325 | Form | |
| 4 | Stat, Lauren Elaina Friedman | Direct | Sell | 10132026 | 199.00 | 5,026 | 1,000,174 | 9,233,998 | Form | |
| 5 | Taylor, Ryan D | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 10132026 | 201.15 | 18,000 | 3,620,700 | 55,249,267 | Form |
| 6 | Stat, Lauren Elaina Friedman | Direct | Sell | 10052026 | 189.95 | 1,337 | 253,963 | 9,768,749 | Form | |
| 7 | Moore, Alexander D | Direct | Sell | 9172026 | 172.64 | 16,000 | 2,762,292 | 183,536,161 | Form | |
| 8 | Stat, Lauren Elaina Friedman | Direct | Sell | 9032026 | 182.50 | 1,342 | 244,915 | 9,629,612 | Form | |
| 9 | Buckley, Jeffrey | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 8242026 | 174.29 | 1,250 | 217,862 | 9,920,761 | Form |
| 10 | Karp, Alexander C | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 8242026 | 174.79 | 492,348 | 86,057,473 | 1,124,293,936 | Form |
| 11 | Buckley, Jeffrey | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 8242026 | 174.83 | 2,055 | 359,271 | 10,169,904 | Form |
| 12 | Moore, Alexander D | Direct | Sell | 8192026 | 174.28 | 16,000 | 2,788,463 | 188,063,519 | Form | |
| 13 | Sankar, Shyam | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 8102026 | 155.70 | 35,000 | 5,449,544 | 100,082,588 | Form |
| 14 | Stat, Lauren Elaina Friedman | Direct | Sell | 8072026 | 165.00 | 3,032 | 500,280 | 8,927,655 | Form | |
| 15 | Moore, Alexander D | Direct | Sell | 7172026 | 134.05 | 16,000 | 2,144,770 | 146,795,438 | Form | |
| 16 | Sankar, Shyam | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 7072026 | 130.00 | 35,000 | 4,550,000 | 83,562,180 | Form |
| 17 | Sankar, Shyam | See Remarks | See Footnote | Sell | 7072026 | 130.00 | 150,000 | 19,500,000 | 77,986,870 | Form |
| 18 | Moore, Alexander D | Direct | Sell | 6172026 | 133.35 | 16,000 | 2,133,605 | 148,164,876 | Form | |
| 19 | Buckley, Jeffrey | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 6152026 | 128.80 | 1,481 | 190,753 | 7,757,109 | Form |
| 20 | Stat, Lauren Elaina Friedman | Direct | Sell | 6022026 | 160.00 | 1,598 | 255,680 | 8,803,520 | Form | |
| 21 | Stat, Lauren Elaina Friedman | Direct | Sell | 6022026 | 150.00 | 1,667 | 250,050 | 8,493,000 | Form | |
| 22 | Buckley, Jeffrey | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 5222026 | 137.41 | 830 | 114,050 | 8,479,159 | Form |
| 23 | Glazer, David A | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 5222026 | 136.04 | 17,128 | 2,330,130 | 51,048,721 | Form |
| 24 | Taylor, Ryan D | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 5222026 | 136.04 | 19,662 | 2,674,859 | 27,175,630 | Form |
| 25 | Karp, Alexander C | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 5222026 | 136.04 | 397,744 | 54,109,936 | 875,057,999 | Form |
| 26 | Sankar, Shyam | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 5222026 | 136.04 | 165,514 | 22,516,876 | 87,445,971 | Form |
| 27 | Cohen, Stephen Andrew | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 5222026 | 136.04 | 319,934 | 43,524,501 | 80,537 | Form |
| 28 | Buckley, Jeffrey | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 5222026 | 136.04 | 1,712 | 232,903 | 8,507,643 | Form |
| 29 | Moore, Alexander D | Direct | Sell | 5192026 | 134.04 | 16,000 | 2,144,663 | 150,793,664 | Form | |
| 30 | Moore, Alexander D | Direct | Sell | 4172026 | 139.41 | 16,000 | 2,230,580 | 159,065,202 | Form | |
| 31 | Moore, Alexander D | Direct | Sell | 3182026 | 152.41 | 16,000 | 2,438,623 | 176,339,547 | Form | |
| 32 | Thiel, Peter | See Footnote | Sell | 3042026 | 144.85 | 2,000,000 | 289,707,507 | 1,989,367,131 | Form | |
| 33 | Buckley, Jeffrey | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 129.08 | 1,232 | 159,027 | 5,564,381 | Form |
| 34 | Buckley, Jeffrey | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 133.72 | 2,704 | 361,575 | 5,929,073 | Form |
| 35 | Taylor, Ryan D | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 133.72 | 19,988 | 2,672,765 | 29,340,646 | Form |
| 36 | Glazer, David A | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 133.72 | 17,438 | 2,331,782 | 52,467,111 | Form |
| 37 | Sankar, Shyam | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 133.72 | 168,004 | 22,465,231 | 85,952,333 | Form |
| 38 | Cohen, Stephen Andrew | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 133.72 | 327,088 | 43,737,696 | 79,161 | Form |
| 39 | Karp, Alexander C | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 133.78 | 493,025 | 65,955,988 | 860,495,774 | Form |
| 40 | Stat, Lauren Elaina Friedman | Direct | Sell | 2042026 | 151.14 | 400 | 60,456 | 8,809,497 | Form | |
| 41 | Moore, Alexander D | Direct | Sell | 2042026 | 149.65 | 20,000 | 2,992,984 | 175,535,208 | Form | |
| 42 | Stat, Lauren Elaina Friedman | Direct | Sell | 1062026 | 181.35 | 3,400 | 616,590 | 10,642,887 | Form | |
| 43 | Moore, Alexander D | Direct | Sell | 1062026 | 172.98 | 20,000 | 3,459,615 | 206,362,217 | Form | |
| 44 | Taylor, Ryan D | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 1062026 | 181.35 | 12,000 | 2,176,200 | 43,416,822 | Form |
| 45 | Glazer, David A | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 12162025 | 185.91 | 9,000 | 1,673,190 | 76,899,626 | Form |
| 46 | Moore, Alexander D | Direct | Sell | 12032025 | 167.19 | 20,000 | 3,343,833 | 202,799,807 | Form | |
| 47 | Buckley, Jeffrey | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 11242025 | 157.50 | 1,252 | 197,190 | 7,409,430 | Form |
| 48 | Taylor, Ryan D | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 11242025 | 162.36 | 36,048 | 5,852,784 | 40,818,982 | Form |
| 49 | Buckley, Jeffrey | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 11242025 | 156.25 | 300 | 46,875 | 7,546,324 | Form |
| 50 | Taylor, Ryan D | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 11242025 | 156.25 | 2,252 | 351,878 | 44,915,571 | Form |
| 51 | Glazer, David A | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 11242025 | 156.25 | 1,973 | 308,286 | 64,632,034 | Form |
| 52 | Sankar, Shyam | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 11242025 | 156.25 | 19,004 | 2,969,402 | 100,436,219 | Form |
| 53 | Cohen, Stephen Andrew | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 11242025 | 156.25 | 39,136 | 6,115,055 | 92,501 | Form |
| 54 | Karp, Alexander C | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 11242025 | 156.25 | 45,564 | 7,119,436 | 1,005,048,888 | Form |
| 55 | Buckley, Jeffrey | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 11242025 | 163.99 | 2,365 | 387,833 | 7,969,183 | Form |
| 56 | Taylor, Ryan D | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 11242025 | 163.99 | 17,761 | 2,912,566 | 47,508,391 | Form |
| 57 | Glazer, David A | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 11242025 | 163.99 | 15,557 | 2,551,122 | 68,154,335 | Form |
| 58 | Sankar, Shyam | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 11242025 | 163.99 | 149,872 | 24,576,902 | 105,407,870 | Form |
| 59 | Cohen, Stephen Andrew | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 11242025 | 163.99 | 308,635 | 50,611,809 | 97,080 | Form |
| 60 | Karp, Alexander C | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 11242025 | 163.99 | 359,325 | 58,924,266 | 1,054,800,191 | Form |
| 61 | Moore, Alexander D | Direct | Sell | 11052025 | 204.54 | 20,000 | 4,090,887 | 252,198,658 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 5, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cypress Point Wealth Management, LLC | $135.7 Mil | 29.2% | 123 | Hold | 13F |
| Allen Operations LLC | $164.6 Mil | 24.6% | 36 | Hold | 13F |
| Allen Holding Inc /Ny | $219.4 Mil | 21.8% | 9 | TRIM -6.3% | 13F |
| Defender Capital, LLC. | $41.7 Mil | 14.8% | 34 | ADD +17.4% | 13F |
| Fortress Private Ledger, LLC | $40.9 Mil | 12.8% | 245 | ADD +5.4% | 13F |
| UNICOM Systems, Inc. | $122.7 Mil | 12.6% | 32 | Hold | 13F |
| Dock Street Asset Management Inc | $108.9 Mil | 11.5% | 58 | Hold | 13F |
| Hound Partners, LLC | $79.4 Mil | 10.0% | 34 | Hold | 13F |
| Heard Capital LLC | $193.3 Mil | 10.0% | 21 | ADD +46.4% | 13F |
| FFG Partners, LLC | $20.9 Mil | 8.3% | 35 | TRIM -8.9% | 13F |
| KEYWISE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT (HK) Ltd | $46.8 Mil | 7.9% | 10 | TRIM -84.3% | 13F |
| SW Investment Management LLC | $24.9 Mil | 5.5% | 8 | Hold | 13F |
| Hyperion Asset Management Ltd | $143.1 Mil | 4.6% | 18 | TRIM -35.4% | 13F |
| Matthew 25 Management Corp | $12.5 Mil | 4.2% | 20 | New | 13F |
| Elite Wealth Management, Inc. | $9.6 Mil | 3.1% | 49 | TRIM -8.1% | 13F |
| KADENSA CAPITAL Ltd | $20.6 Mil | 2.9% | 39 | ADD +7.5% | 13F |
| Westwood Wealth Management | $6.3 Mil | 2.5% | 42 | New | 13F |
| Ratan Capital Management LP | $5.5 Mil | 2.0% | 37 | New | 13F |
| Ithaka Group LLC | $9.5 Mil | 2.0% | 38 | Hold | 13F |
| Science & Technology Partners, L.P. | $7.5 Mil | 2.0% | 42 | New | 13F |
| Parker Investment Management, LLC | $12.9 Mil | 2.0% | 37 | ADD +35.9% | 13F |
| BSN CAPITAL PARTNERS Ltd | $37.4 Mil | 1.8% | 41 | New | 13F |
| Proem Advisors LLC | $5.2 Mil | 1.7% | 29 | New | 13F |
| Archon Partners LLC | $14.6 Mil | 1.7% | 39 | TRIM -13.0% | 13F |
| CTC LLC | $18.6 Mil | 1.5% | 25 | TRIM -60.4% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BSN CAPITAL PARTNERS Ltd | $37.4 Mil | 1.8% | 41 | New | 13F |
| Matthew 25 Management Corp | $12.5 Mil | 4.2% | 20 | New | 13F |
| Science & Technology Partners, L.P. | $7.5 Mil | 2.0% | 42 | New | 13F |
| Westwood Wealth Management | $6.3 Mil | 2.5% | 42 | New | 13F |
| Ratan Capital Management LP | $5.5 Mil | 2.0% | 37 | New | 13F |
| Proem Advisors LLC | $5.2 Mil | 1.7% | 29 | New | 13F |
| Heard Capital LLC | $193.3 Mil | 10.0% | 21 | ADD +46.4% | 13F |
| Parker Investment Management, LLC | $12.9 Mil | 2.0% | 37 | ADD +35.9% | 13F |
| Defender Capital, LLC. | $41.7 Mil | 14.8% | 34 | ADD +17.4% | 13F |
| KADENSA CAPITAL Ltd | $20.6 Mil | 2.9% | 39 | ADD +7.5% | 13F |
| Fortress Private Ledger, LLC | $40.9 Mil | 12.8% | 245 | ADD +5.4% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK Capital Management, LLC/FL | $62.2 Mil | 3.9% | 20 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Agave Capital Management Ltd | $23.4 Mil | 3.9% | 23 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| VMS Asset Management Limited | $5.4 Mil | 2.1% | 42 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| KEYWISE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT (HK) Ltd | $46.8 Mil | 7.9% | 10 | TRIM -84.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| CTC LLC | $18.6 Mil | 1.5% | 25 | TRIM -60.4% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Hyperion Asset Management Ltd | $143.1 Mil | 4.6% | 18 | TRIM -35.4% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Archon Partners LLC | $14.6 Mil | 1.7% | 39 | TRIM -13.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| FFG Partners, LLC | $20.9 Mil | 8.3% | 35 | TRIM -8.9% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Elite Wealth Management, Inc. | $9.6 Mil | 3.1% | 49 | TRIM -8.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Allen Holding Inc /Ny | $219.4 Mil | 21.8% | 9 | TRIM -6.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Holding Inc /Ny | $219.4 Mil | 21.8% | 9 | TRIM -6.3% | 13F |
| Heard Capital LLC | $193.3 Mil | 10.0% | 21 | ADD +46.4% | 13F |
| Allen Operations LLC | $164.6 Mil | 24.6% | 36 | Hold | 13F |
| Hyperion Asset Management Ltd | $143.1 Mil | 4.6% | 18 | TRIM -35.4% | 13F |
| Cypress Point Wealth Management, LLC | $135.7 Mil | 29.2% | 123 | Hold | 13F |
| UNICOM Systems, Inc. | $122.7 Mil | 12.6% | 32 | Hold | 13F |
| Dock Street Asset Management Inc | $108.9 Mil | 11.5% | 58 | Hold | 13F |
| Hound Partners, LLC | $79.4 Mil | 10.0% | 34 | Hold | 13F |
| KEYWISE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT (HK) Ltd | $46.8 Mil | 7.9% | 10 | TRIM -84.3% | 13F |
| Defender Capital, LLC. | $41.7 Mil | 14.8% | 34 | ADD +17.4% | 13F |
| Fortress Private Ledger, LLC | $40.9 Mil | 12.8% | 245 | ADD +5.4% | 13F |
| BSN CAPITAL PARTNERS Ltd | $37.4 Mil | 1.8% | 41 | New | 13F |
| SW Investment Management LLC | $24.9 Mil | 5.5% | 8 | Hold | 13F |
| FFG Partners, LLC | $20.9 Mil | 8.3% | 35 | TRIM -8.9% | 13F |
| KADENSA CAPITAL Ltd | $20.6 Mil | 2.9% | 39 | ADD +7.5% | 13F |
| CTC LLC | $18.6 Mil | 1.5% | 25 | TRIM -60.4% | 13F |
| Archon Partners LLC | $14.6 Mil | 1.7% | 39 | TRIM -13.0% | 13F |
| Parker Investment Management, LLC | $12.9 Mil | 2.0% | 37 | ADD +35.9% | 13F |
| Matthew 25 Management Corp | $12.5 Mil | 4.2% | 20 | New | 13F |
| Elite Wealth Management, Inc. | $9.6 Mil | 3.1% | 49 | TRIM -8.1% | 13F |
| Ithaka Group LLC | $9.5 Mil | 2.0% | 38 | Hold | 13F |
| Science & Technology Partners, L.P. | $7.5 Mil | 2.0% | 42 | New | 13F |
| Westwood Wealth Management | $6.3 Mil | 2.5% | 42 | New | 13F |
| Ratan Capital Management LP | $5.5 Mil | 2.0% | 37 | New | 13F |
| Proem Advisors LLC | $5.2 Mil | 1.7% | 29 | New | 13F |
PLTR Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is constructive, anchored by explosive and accelerating U.S. commercial demand, with revenue growth of 148% and net dollar retention of 165%. The company's Artificial Intelligence Platform is capturing a wave of enterprise spending. This momentum is balanced against geographic concentration in the U.S. and long-term competition from much larger technology companies.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Revenue = (Number of Customers) x (Average Contract Value). Growth is driven by both acquiring new large enterprise customers and, more significantly, expanding the contract value with existing customers. Operating leverage. As a software company, incremental revenue from contract expansions carries very high margins. Profits are driven by revenue growing much faster (87.1% TTM) than operating expenses (24% TTM).
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests it is, with its AIP platform driving historic growth by enabling large companies to deploy AI on their own data.
- U.S. commercial revenue grew 148% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
- Net dollar retention accelerated for the fourth straight quarter to 165%.
- Remaining Performance Obligations grew 88% year-over-year to $4.9 billion.
- Full-year U.S. commercial revenue guidance was raised to at least 143% growth.
- TTM operating margin expanded by 23.8 percentage points to 45.6%.
PRIMARY RISK
The company's hypergrowth is almost entirely concentrated in the U.S., which grew 119% YoY, while international markets appear to be struggling, raising questions about the global scalability of its model and the durability of its runway.
- Management commentary suggested avoiding discussion of European performance.
- The top three customers account for 16% of revenue, a concentration risk.
- Microsoft's revenue is 47.5 times larger, indicating a massive scale disadvantage.
- Amazon's AWS segment grew 39.3% in its latest quarter, showing strong competition.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. Commercial Revenue Growth | 148% year-over-year growth for Q3 2026 - Accelerating | The U.S. Commercial segment is experiencing explosive, accelerating growth. After posting 133% year-over-year growth in Q1, the rate jumped to 149% in Q2 and held at a very strong 148% in Q3. Sequential growth has also accelerated, indicating powerful near-term momentum. Management commentary highlights that for the first time, U.S. commercial revenue surpassed U.S. government revenue, marking a critical milestone. |
| Net Dollar Retention (NDR) | 165% for Q3 2026 - Accelerating | Net Dollar Retention has accelerated for four consecutive quarters, reaching 165% in the latest quarter. This demonstrates an exceptionally strong ability to expand revenue from existing customers, a core tenet of the company's 'land-and-expand' strategy. The CFO noted the latest increase of 800 basis points from the prior quarter. |
| Average Revenue from Top 20 Customers (TTM) | $146 million (Q3 2026) | Measures the company's ability to expand relationships with its largest and most established customers ('land and expand'). Strong growth in this metric, up 76% year-over-year, indicates deep integration and increasing reliance on Palantir's platforms. |
| Rule of 40 Score | 158% (Q3 2026) | A key software industry metric combines revenue growth rate and profit margin. |
U.S. Juggernaut vs. Global Bottleneck
BULL VIEW
Bulls believe the 'insatiable' U.S. demand, growing at 148% in commercial, is the start of a multi-year cycle that is large enough to sustain hypergrowth on its own.
CORE TENSION
Can accelerating U.S. commercial growth (148% YoY) and a rising backlog (RPO up 88%) overcome the structural risk of a stalled international business?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence strongly favors the bull view. Management raised full-year U.S. commercial revenue guidance, and leading indicators like RPO growth signal continued near-term strength.
BEAR VIEW
Bears see the stark contrast with weak European performance as proof of a limited global market, arguing the current growth rate is a geographical anomaly that cannot last.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
1/26/2027 | Peer AI Platform Momentum Watch: Enterprise AI customer counts, revenue growth, and major contract announcements from Microsoft, Amazon, and Google. |
2/1/2027 | International Performance Scrutiny Watch: International revenue growth rate in the Q4 report and management's commentary on the European and Asian sales pipeline. |
2/1/2027 | Q4 2026 Earnings Release Watch: The company is scheduled to report Q4 and full-year 2026 results and provide its initial 2027 outlook. |
2/2/2027 | Alphabet Peer Earnings Report Watch: Alphabet (GOOGL) is scheduled to report earnings, providing updates on its Google Cloud AI offerings. |
2/3/2027 | Amazon Peer Earnings Report Watch: Amazon.com (AMZN) is scheduled to report earnings, with updates on its competing AWS AI services like Bedrock. |
March 2027 | Revolving Credit Facility Matures Watch: The company's existing revolving credit facility, with total commitments of up to $500.0 million, is scheduled to mature. |
No set date | Major Contract Termination Watch: Announcements of contract de-scoping, non-renewal, or termination for convenience by a major customer. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-11-02 | Guidance Raised Significantly Details: With its Q3 results on November 2, management raised its full-year 2026 revenue growth guidance to 96% and U.S. commercial revenue growth guidance to 148%. | -4.7% $184.11 -> $175.40 |
2026-11-02 | Q3 Results Crush Estimates Details: On November 2, the company reported Q3 revenue growth of 96% YoY, with U.S. commercial revenue growing 148% and surpassing U.S. government revenue for the first time. | -4.7% $184.11 -> $175.40 |
2026-09-10 | Deepened Partnership with Fujitsu Details: On September 10, the company announced a renewed strategic partnership with Fujitsu, which will serve as a Global FDE (Forward Deployed Engineer) Partner. | -1.4% $169.53 -> $167.23 |
2026-08-03 | Q2 Results Trigger Stock Surge Details: The company reported Q2 revenue growth of 93% year-over-year to $1.935 billion. The stock had a two-day positive reaction of 32.0% around the August 3 earnings call. | +32.2% $123.06 -> $162.66 |
2026-07-22 | UK NHS Contract Scrutiny Details: On July 22, press reports indicated fresh regulatory scrutiny surrounding the company's UK National Health Service (NHS) Federated Data Platform (FDP) contract. | -7.0% $132.66 -> $123.37 |
2026-06-22 | Secured Role in Army Program Details: On June 22, the company announced its foundational role in the U.S. Army's Next Generation Command and Control (NGC2) common data layer baseline. | -9.2% $128.47 -> $116.70 |
2026-05-04 | Q1 Results Beat Expectations Details: The company reported Q1 2026 results with 85% revenue growth and raised full-year guidance. However, the stock reacted negatively, with a two-day reaction of -6.0%. | -5.7% $144.07 -> $135.91 |
Position Sizing
2% - 4%
REDUCED POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: PLTR trades at roughly 49% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 10% for the S&P 500 (5.0x the market). A 2% - 4% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
MSFT - Microsoft
Integrated AI StackMicrosoft offers a deeply integrated ecosystem from cloud infrastructure (Azure) to applications (Copilot), with a vastly larger distribution channel and customer base.
AMZN - Amazon.com
AI Infrastructure LeaderThrough AWS, Amazon provides the foundational, scalable cloud infrastructure for AI, competing on price and performance for raw compute and model access.
Palantir is an enterprise AI arms dealer, providing the critical 'picks and shovels' for the 'Sovereign AI' gold rush, where large organizations demand control over their own data and AI models.
After years of being known as a secretive government contractor, Palantir has pivoted to become a dominant force in the commercial enterprise AI market. Its core thesis is that generic, off-the-shelf AI is insufficient and risky for serious business applications. The company's AIP platform acts as a secure operating system, allowing customers to deploy various AI models on their own proprietary data, a concept it brands as 'Sovereign AI.' This strategy has ignited explosive growth, particularly in the U.S. commercial sector, which is now the company's primary growth engine.
News of large enterprises, especially in sectors like manufacturing, finance, or healthcare, signing multi-million dollar deals for the AIP platform after short pilot periods. Announcements of partnerships with major cloud providers or systems integrators to broaden distribution.
Reports of slowing U.S. commercial growth, major contract terminations, or evidence that large enterprises are successfully building their own AI platforms internally without needing Palantir. A significant security breach involving a customer's data on Palantir's platform.
Debates about the company's historical government work or political affiliations, which are less relevant to the current commercial growth story. Announcements of small, international contracts that do not move the needle on the company's overall financial trajectory.
Repricing Catalyst
The market's validation of the 'Sovereign AI' thesis, evidenced by the company's triple-digit U.S. commercial revenue growth and significant guidance raises, which positions Palantir as a primary beneficiary of the enterprise AI investment cycle.
Government
$3.7B TTM (51% of Total) · 123% MarginWhat It Is
Sells the Palantir Gotham platform and other defense offerings to government agencies, particularly in the defense and intelligence communities. The platform integrates data from various sensors and domains to improve situational awareness and operational decision-making.
Who Pays & How
U.S. and allied government agencies pay for software to assist in missions like counterterrorism, military operations, and disaster relief by integrating vast amounts of data into a common operating picture to accelerate decision-making.
Competition
Commercial
$3.6B TTM (49% of Total) · 127% MarginWhat It Is
Sells the Palantir Foundry and AIP platforms to large commercial institutions across industries including banking, healthcare, manufacturing, and energy. The platforms serve as a central operating system for an organization's data, logic, and operations.
Who Pays & How
Large enterprises pay to create a unified data foundation (Ontology) that connects their operational data with AI models, allowing them to build and deploy applications that optimize workflows, from supply chain management to customer service.
Competition
Palantir Technologies — Investor Video Playlist








Industry Resources
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