Crane NXT (CXT)
Market Price (12/29/2025): $48.36 | Market Cap: $2.8 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Electronic Equipment & Instruments
Crane NXT (CXT)
Market Price (12/29/2025): $48.36Market Cap: $2.8 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Electronic Equipment & Instruments
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.0%, FCF Yield is 6.2% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -61%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -32% | Key risksCXT key risks include [1] eroding demand for physical currency due to the shift to cashless payments, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 37% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Autonomous Technologies, Fintech & Digital Payments, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Machine Vision, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.0%, FCF Yield is 6.2% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 37% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Autonomous Technologies, Fintech & Digital Payments, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Machine Vision, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -61%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -32% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% |
| Key risksCXT key risks include [1] eroding demand for physical currency due to the shift to cashless payments, Show more. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Narrowed Full-Year EPS Guidance After Q3 Earnings: On November 5, 2025, Crane NXT reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results, where it significantly narrowed its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $4.00-$4.10 from the prior $4.00-$4.30 range. Despite exceeding analyst estimates for Q3 adjusted EPS and revenue, this downward adjustment in the upper end of the full-year guidance disappointed investors and contributed to a 5.36% stock decline in after-hours trading.
2. Weakness in the CPI Vending Segment: A primary driver for the adjusted EPS guidance cut was persistent softness and volume pressures in the Crane Payment Innovations (CPI) vending segment. The CPI segment experienced a 3.8% sales decrease in the third quarter of 2025, with management expecting the vending business to remain flat into 2026 due to ongoing tariff and macroeconomic headwinds.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -25.5% change in CXT stock from 9/28/2025 to 12/28/2025 was primarily driven by a -27.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 9282025 | 12282025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 64.87 | 48.35 | -25.47% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1537.30 | 1578.90 | 2.71% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.84% | 9.80% | -0.45% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.61 | 17.94 | -27.11% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 57.40 | 57.40 | 0.00% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -25.47% |
Market Drivers
9/28/2025 to 12/28/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CXT | -25.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.3% | 63.8% |
| Sector (XLK) | 5.1% | 61.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -9.5% change in CXT stock from 6/29/2025 to 12/28/2025 was primarily driven by a -12.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| 6292025 | 12282025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 53.41 | 48.35 | -9.47% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1503.50 | 1578.90 | 5.01% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.17% | 9.80% | -12.31% |
| P/E Multiple | 18.22 | 17.94 | -1.51% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 57.30 | 57.40 | -0.17% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -9.47% |
Market Drivers
6/29/2025 to 12/28/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CXT | -9.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.6% | 43.3% |
| Sector (XLK) | 17.0% | 35.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -15.6% change in CXT stock from 12/28/2024 to 12/28/2025 was primarily driven by a -19.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| 12282024 | 12282025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 57.32 | 48.35 | -15.64% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1444.60 | 1578.90 | 9.30% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.18% | 9.80% | -19.58% |
| P/E Multiple | 18.63 | 17.94 | -3.69% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 57.20 | 57.40 | -0.35% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -15.64% |
Market Drivers
12/28/2024 to 12/28/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CXT | -15.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 17.0% | 60.0% |
| Sector (XLK) | 24.0% | 55.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
12/29/2023 to 12/28/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CXT | -13.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 48.4% | 58.4% |
| Sector (XLK) | 54.0% | 52.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CXT Return | - | - | 8% | 67% | 3% | -16% | 57% |
| Peers Return | 16% | 38% | -12% | 21% | 26% | 16% | 150% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 18% | 114% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CXT Win Rate | - | - | 50% | 67% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 65% | 42% | 68% | 57% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CXT Max Drawdown | - | - | -10% | 0% | -5% | -27% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -34% | -5% | -26% | -7% | -9% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HPQ, HPE, IBM, CSCO, AAPL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/26/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CXT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 167 days | 464 days |
Compare to HPQ, HPE, IBM, CSCO, AAPL
In The Past
Crane NXT's stock fell -20.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/8/2023. A -20.8% loss requires a 26.2% gain to breakeven.
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-2 brief analogies for Crane NXT (CXT):
-
The Intel Inside of secure payment and anti-counterfeiting systems.
(CXT provides the sophisticated core technology for validating currency, authenticating products, and securing transactions, much like Intel provides the essential processors for computers.) -
Like Visa or Mastercard, but for ensuring the authenticity of physical currency and goods.
(While Visa/Mastercard secure digital transactions, CXT provides the critical technologies and features that ensure the trust and authenticity of physical banknotes, postal stamps, and consumer goods, protecting against counterfeiting and fraud.)
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Secure Banknotes: Manufactures high-security currency paper and integrates advanced anti-counterfeiting features for central banks worldwide.
- Payment Technology Solutions: Develops and supplies banknote validators, coin changers, and cashless payment systems for vending, gaming, retail, and other self-service markets.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Crane NXT (CXT) primarily sells its technology-led solutions to other companies and government entities, rather than directly to individuals. Due to the nature of its business and as stated in its SEC filings (e.g., its 2023 10-K report), no single customer accounted for more than 10% of Crane NXT's consolidated net sales. Therefore, the company does not publicly disclose the names of specific major customer companies. However, based on its two primary reporting segments, Crane NXT serves the following categories of customers: 1.Central Banks and Government Authorities: For its Currency Technology segment, Crane NXT provides advanced security features and technologies for banknotes, as well as solutions for currency issuance and management. These customers are governmental or quasi-governmental institutions responsible for a nation's monetary policy and currency supply.
2.Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs): In its Payment & Merchandising Technologies (CPI) segment, Crane NXT sells components like currency validators, coin acceptors, and cashless payment systems. These are integrated by OEMs into various end products such as vending machines, self-checkout kiosks, gaming machines, ATMs, and laundry equipment.
3.Operators and Distributors: Also within the Payment & Merchandising Technologies (CPI) segment, Crane NXT serves companies that directly operate machines equipped with their payment solutions (e.g., vending machine operators, casino operators, retail chains managing their own self-service points) and distributors who resell Crane NXT's products to a broader market of businesses.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
Aaron W. Saak President & Chief Executive Officer
Aaron W. Saak was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of Crane NXT in November 2022. He has over 20 years of experience leading technology-focused businesses for multinational organizations. Before joining Crane, Mr. Saak served as President and CEO of Mobility Solutions and President of Gilbarco Veeder-Root (GVR), a subsidiary of the Vontier Corporation, which had approximately $2 billion in revenue and sales in over 40 countries. His previous experience also includes senior leadership roles with Tyco International, where he was Vice President and General Manager for the SimplexGrinnell business, and a ten-year tenure at General Electric.
Christina Cristiano Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Christina Cristiano was appointed Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Crane NXT in 2023. Prior to this role, she served as Vice President, Controller and Chief Accounting Officer at Crane Holdings, Co. from 2019 to 2023. Ms. Cristiano spent a decade at Thomson Reuters, holding positions of increasing responsibility, including Vice President, Global Controller from 2016 to 2019, where she led the company's global accounting and statutory reporting organization and played a key role in transaction execution. She began her career at Ernst & Young, spending 14 years and advancing to Senior Manager in Transaction Advisory Services.
Paul G. Igoe Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary
Paul G. Igoe serves as the Senior Vice President, General Counsel, and Secretary for Crane NXT.
Sam Keayes Senior Vice President, Security and Authentication Technologies
Sam Keayes is the Senior Vice President of Security and Authentication Technologies at Crane NXT. He leads the segment focused on advanced security solutions for physical products, including banknotes, consumer goods, and industrial products.
Michael Mahan President, Crane Payment Innovations (CPI)
Michael Mahan is the President of Crane Payment Innovations (CPI) at Crane NXT. The CPI segment offers electronic equipment and associated software leveraging extensive and proprietary core capabilities with various detection and sensing technologies for applications including verification and authentication of payment transactions.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```htmlHere are the key risks to Crane NXT's business:
- Erosion of Currency Demand by Cashless Payments: A significant risk to Crane NXT's business is the potential for cashless payment methods to reduce the demand for physical currency faster than anticipated. This could unravel the company's growth narrative, especially given its historical focus on currency production and security solutions.
- Increased Debt Levels and Financial Stress: Crane NXT has increased its debt, with total debt reaching $1,129.2 million as of June 30, 2025. The company's Altman Z-Score of 2.26 places it in a "grey area," suggesting some financial stress. Elevated debt levels can limit financial flexibility and increase the company's vulnerability to economic downturns or interest rate fluctuations.
- Challenges with Acquisition Integration and Synergy Realization: Crane NXT has actively engaged in mergers and acquisitions, such as OpSec Security, De La Rue Authentication Solutions, and Antares Vision. The success of these strategic moves depends on the effective integration of the acquired businesses and the realization of planned synergies. Delays, difficulties, or outright failures in integration could negatively impact the company's profitability and growth prospects. Operating margins have already been pressured by integration costs.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The clear emerging threat for Crane NXT (CXT) is the accelerating global trend towards digital payments and the development and potential adoption of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). As central banks worldwide explore and pilot CBDCs, there is a long-term potential for a significant reduction in the demand for physical banknotes. This shift could directly impact CXT's core Currency Business, which provides banknote security features, substrates, and processing equipment, by reducing the overall volume of new banknotes required.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Crane NXT (CXT) operates in two primary segments: Crane Payment Innovations (CPI) and Security and Authentication Technologies (SAT).
Crane Payment Innovations (CPI)
This segment specializes in providing electronic equipment and associated software for payment verification and authentication. Its offerings include currency validation technologies, cash management systems, digital payment technologies, mobile applications, security, and digital advertising. CPI serves a diverse range of industries such as gaming, retail, transportation, vending, and financial services.
The estimated annual revenue for Crane Payment Innovations is approximately $1.3 billion globally.
Security and Authentication Technologies (SAT)
The SAT segment delivers advanced security solutions, leveraging proprietary micro-optics technology to secure physical products, including banknotes, consumer goods, and industrial products. Additionally, it offers brand protection, authentication solutions, and digital content protection across various online platforms.
Information on the specific addressable market size for Crane NXT's Security and Authentication Technologies (SAT) products is not readily available in the provided search results. Therefore, the market size for this segment is null.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Crane NXT (CXT) is poised for future revenue growth over the next two to three years, driven by several key factors:
- Growth in U.S. Currency Business: The company anticipates high single-digit revenue growth in its U.S. currency business in 2026. This is primarily fueled by the Federal Reserve's 2026 print order, which projects an approximate 90% increase in demand for higher denomination banknotes ($10, $20, $50, and $100). The planned introduction of a new $10 banknote in mid-2026 is also expected to contribute to this growth.
- Expansion of International Currency Business: Crane NXT has demonstrated strong momentum in its international currency business, securing several new customer wins, including a significant contract with a Latin American country. The increasing adoption of its micro-optics technology in new currency denominations globally is a key driver for this segment.
- Strategic Acquisition of Antares Vision: The acquisition of Antares Vision, a prominent provider of detection, inspection, and track and trace technologies for the life sciences and food & beverage sectors, is expected to enhance Crane NXT's capabilities in detection, inspection, and authentication. This strategic move, with integration planned by 2026, is anticipated to drive future expansion and strengthen the company's market presence.
- Strong Performance in Security and Authentication Technologies (SAT) Segment: The Security and Authentication Technologies (SAT) segment, which encompasses currency and authentication solutions, continues to exhibit robust performance and momentum. This segment has been a significant contributor to the company's upward revision of its full-year sales growth guidance.
AI Analysis | Feedback
For Crane NXT (CXT), capital allocation decisions over the last 3-5 years, primarily since its separation in April 2023, include the following:Share Issuance
- Crane NXT had 56,937,956 shares outstanding as of January 31, 2024.
- The number of shares outstanding increased by 0.43% in one year, reaching 57.42 million.
Outbound Investments
- Crane NXT acquired OpSec Security, a global leader in brand protection and authentication solutions, in 2024.
- The company is on track to close the acquisition of De La Rue Authentication Solutions in the second quarter of 2025.
- In September 2025, Crane NXT acquired Antares Vision S.p.A., a global leader in inspection, detection, and track & trace technologies, for an enterprise value of 445 million Euros, with plans to take the company private by the first half of 2026.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures were approximately $31.1 million in 2023, primarily driven by investments to support the U.S. Currency redesign program and other capital projects.
- Expected capital expenditures for 2024 were approximately $50 million.
- Higher capital expenditures in 2024 and planned investments in 2025 continued to focus on upgrading technology and equipment for the new U.S. banknote series.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
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| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to CXT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 14.4% | 14.4% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.1% | 13.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.3% | 17.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.0% | 12.0% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
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Peer Comparisons for Crane NXT
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 63.25 |
| Mkt Cap | 158.8 |
| Rev LTM | 56,496 |
| Op Inc LTM | 7,584 |
| FCF LTM | 7,327 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 7,366 |
| CFO LTM | 8,590 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 8,697 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 16.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 17.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 158.8 |
| P/S | 3.1 |
| P/EBIT | 21.2 |
| P/E | 33.0 |
| P/CFO | 17.0 |
| Total Yield | 5.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.9% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $48.35 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 2.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/17/2022 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -29.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $57.95 | $56.23 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -16.6% | -14.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 30.6% | 37.5% |
| Downside Capture | 277.79 | 140.10 |
| Upside Capture | 81.46 | 101.68 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 62.8% | 59.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.53 | 1.32 | 1.17 | 1.34 | 1.11 | 1.12 |
| Up Beta | 0.61 | 0.60 | 0.81 | 1.38 | 1.12 | 1.15 |
| Down Beta | 0.16 | 1.39 | 1.24 | 1.44 | 1.07 | 1.16 |
| Up Capture | 79% | 64% | 90% | 113% | 99% | 121% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 25 | 38 | 73 | 141 | 426 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 17 | 28 | 59 | 115 | 391 |
| Down Capture | 250% | 198% | 153% | 143% | 114% | 103% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 16 | 24 | 52 | 107 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 24 | 34 | 66 | 131 | 354 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
nullBased On 5-Year Data
nullBased On 10-Year Data
nullReturns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2025 | -4.4% | -3.8% | -10.3% |
| 8/6/2025 | 1.4% | 9.5% | 8.7% |
| 5/7/2025 | 7.0% | 15.5% | 13.9% |
| 2/12/2025 | -1.3% | 1.2% | -6.6% |
| 11/6/2024 | -0.2% | -2.4% | 6.7% |
| 8/7/2024 | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.8% |
| 5/8/2024 | -2.2% | -0.7% | -1.3% |
| 2/14/2024 | -2.2% | 0.2% | 1.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 5 | 10 | 11 |
| # Negative | 19 | 14 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 4.8% | 3.4% | 6.7% |
| Median Negative | -2.2% | -3.1% | -6.2% |
| Max Positive | 8.8% | 15.5% | 13.9% |
| Max Negative | -7.5% | -5.1% | -10.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2202025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11062023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8072023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3312023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 1242023 | 10-12B/A 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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