Palantir Technologies (PLTR)


Market Price (11/5/2026): $170.32 | Market Cap: $410.4 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software

Palantir Technologies (PLTR)


Market Price (11/5/2026): $170.32
Market Cap: $410.4 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Application Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 87%

Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 46%

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 56%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 56%, CFO LTM is 4.1 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.1 Bil

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, Cloud Computing, Digital Health & Telemedicine, Show more.

Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 57x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 124x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 101x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 113x

Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%

Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.4%

Short seller report

Key risks
PLTR key risks include [1] its exceptionally high valuation, Show more.

0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 87%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 46%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 56%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 56%, CFO LTM is 4.1 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.1 Bil
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, Cloud Computing, Digital Health & Telemedicine, Show more.
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 57x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 124x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 101x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 113x
5 Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.4%
7 Short seller report
8 Key risks
PLTR key risks include [1] its exceptionally high valuation, Show more.

PLTR in ETFs

Weight = PLTR's share of each fund

SPY0.63%
VOO0.65%
IVV0.68%
VTI0.56%
ITOT0.55%
QQQ1.8%
QQQM2.0%
IWB0.59%
+41 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 11/4/2026

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) stock has gained about 40% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Palantir's fiscal Q3 2026 (ended September 30, 2026) results significantly surpassed market expectations, driving investor confidence. The company reported revenue of $2.313 billion, representing a 96% year-over-year increase, exceeding both analyst consensus of $2.18 billion by 6.1% and its own guidance. Adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) reached $0.44, outperforming analyst estimates of $0.41 by 7.3%.

2. The company raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance and saw accelerating growth in its U.S. commercial sector. Palantir increased its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to between $8.530 billion and $8.534 billion, implying 91% annual growth, up from its previous outlook of approximately $8.15 billion to $8.16 billion. This upward revision was bolstered by a substantial 148% year-over-year growth in U.S. commercial revenue, reaching $984 million in fiscal Q3 2026, which surpassed U.S. government revenue for the first time.

Show more
Updated on 11/4/2026

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) stock has gained about 40% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Palantir's fiscal Q3 2026 (ended September 30, 2026) results significantly surpassed market expectations, driving investor confidence. The company reported revenue of $2.313 billion, representing a 96% year-over-year increase, exceeding both analyst consensus of $2.18 billion by 6.1% and its own guidance. Adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) reached $0.44, outperforming analyst estimates of $0.41 by 7.3%.

2. The company raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance and saw accelerating growth in its U.S. commercial sector. Palantir increased its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to between $8.530 billion and $8.534 billion, implying 91% annual growth, up from its previous outlook of approximately $8.15 billion to $8.16 billion. This upward revision was bolstered by a substantial 148% year-over-year growth in U.S. commercial revenue, reaching $984 million in fiscal Q3 2026, which surpassed U.S. government revenue for the first time.

3. Continued strong demand for Palantir's Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) contributed to its growth. The company attributed its record fiscal Q3 2026 financial results to "unprecedented demand for its AI platform and Sovereign AI offerings." Additionally, Palantir secured over $1 billion in U.S. government contracts in fiscal year 2026, including up to $244 million in additional funding from the Pentagon in August 2026, and an increased budget ceiling for the Maven AI targeting platform to approximately $1.3 billion.

4. Analyst sentiment improved with multiple firms raising their price targets on PLTR stock. Following Palantir's performance, several financial institutions revised their outlook positively. Barclays raised its price objective from $265.00 to $273.00 on November 4, 2026, maintaining an "overweight" rating. Oppenheimer increased its price target to $235.00 from $200.00 on October 29, 2026, with an "outperform" rating, while DA Davidson reissued a "buy" rating with a $250.00 price objective. Truist Securities also raised its price target to $250 from $233, citing Palantir as "one of the clearest data points on AI value creation."

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 39.5% change in PLTR stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 39.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)731202611042026Change
Stock Price ($)123.06171.7039.5%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)5,2247,28839.5%
Net Income Margin (%)43.7%50.3%15.3%
P/E Multiple129.1112.6-12.8%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)2,3942,406-0.5%
Cumulative Contribution39.5%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2026 to 11/4/2026
ReturnCorrelation
PLTR39.5% 
Market (SPY)2.6%54.2%
Sector (XLK)0.7%60.3%

Fundamental Drivers

The 23.4% change in PLTR stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 62.8% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)430202611042026Change
Stock Price ($)139.11171.7023.4%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)4,4757,28862.8%
Net Income Margin (%)36.3%50.3%38.6%
P/E Multiple204.3112.6-44.9%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)2,3872,406-0.8%
Cumulative Contribution23.4%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

4/30/2026 to 11/4/2026
ReturnCorrelation
PLTR23.4% 
Market (SPY)7.0%35.6%
Sector (XLK)10.8%34.0%

Fundamental Drivers

The -14.4% change in PLTR stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/4/2026 was primarily driven by a -81.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)1031202511042026Change
Stock Price ($)200.47171.70-14.4%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)3,4417,288111.8%
Net Income Margin (%)22.2%50.3%126.9%
P/E Multiple621.2112.6-81.9%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)2,3652,406-1.7%
Cumulative Contribution-14.4%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2025 to 11/4/2026
ReturnCorrelation
PLTR-14.4% 
Market (SPY)13.4%41.6%
Sector (XLK)17.9%43.2%

Fundamental Drivers

The 1060.1% change in PLTR stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 268.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)1031202311042026Change
Stock Price ($)14.80171.701060.1%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)2,0457,288256.4%
P/S Multiple15.456.7268.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)2,1282,406-11.5%
Cumulative Contribution1060.1%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2023 to 11/4/2026
ReturnCorrelation
PLTR1060.1% 
Market (SPY)89.7%49.3%
Sector (XLK)119.1%48.7%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
PLTR Return-23%-65%167%340%135%-3%629%
Peers Return31%-33%52%22%33%9%137%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%11%102%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
PLTR Win Rate33%42%67%67%75%45% 
Peers Win Rate63%32%67%58%52%45% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%36% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
PLTR Max Drawdown-54%-68%-30%-23%-41%-41% 
Peers Max Drawdown-18%-43%-18%-26%-27%-33% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, SNOW, IBM. See PLTR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/4/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventPLTRS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-34.0%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven51.4%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven21 days79 days
2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind
  % Loss-15.2%-7.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven18.0%8.5%
  Time to Breakeven3 days18 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-15.6%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven18.6%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven10 days24 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-63.8%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven176.2%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven446 days427 days

Compare to MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, SNOW, IBM

In The Past

Palantir Technologies's stock fell -34.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 51.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventPLTRS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-34.0%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven51.4%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven21 days79 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-63.8%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven176.2%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven446 days427 days

Compare to MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, SNOW, IBM

In The Past

Palantir Technologies's stock fell -34.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 51.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Palantir Technologies (PLTR)

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Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) develops and deploys advanced software platforms designed to help organizations analyze vast, complex datasets and identify hidden patterns. Its initial focus and a significant part of its business involve supporting the United States intelligence community in counterterrorism investigations and operations, enabling users to identify threats and facilitate coordinated real-world responses.

The company offers several key products. Palantir Gotham is specifically tailored for government and intelligence agencies, integrating diverse data sources—from signals intelligence to confidential informant reports—to assist analysts and operators. Palantir Foundry serves a broader market, acting as a central operating system for data within various organizations, allowing users to integrate and analyze information to transform operations. Additionally, Palantir provides Apollo, a software platform that enables customers to deploy their own applications virtually in any environment.

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AI Analysis | Feedback

1. Like SAP or Oracle, but focused on being the central operating system for an organization's data, rather than its business processes.

2. A highly specialized Splunk or Microsoft Power BI that identifies hidden patterns in vast, disparate datasets to enable real-world operational responses.

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  • Palantir Gotham: A software platform designed for the intelligence community to identify patterns within datasets and facilitate real-world responses to identified threats.
  • Palantir Foundry: A platform that serves as a central operating system for an organization's data, enabling users to integrate and analyze data in one place.
  • Apollo: Software that allows customers to deploy their own software virtually in any environment.
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AI Analysis | Feedback

Palantir Technologies Inc. sells its software platforms primarily to organizations, including government entities and commercial enterprises, rather than to individuals.

Based on the provided information, its major customers fall into the following categories:

  • The Intelligence Community in the United States: This is a primary customer segment for Palantir, for which it builds and deploys software platforms to assist in counterterrorism investigations and operations. This encompasses various U.S. government intelligence agencies.
  • Large Organizations and Enterprises: Palantir Foundry is described as a platform that transforms the ways organizations operate by creating a central operating system for their data. This indicates a focus on large commercial companies across different industries, as well as potentially other government departments beyond the intelligence community.

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Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)

Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)

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Alexander Karp, Chief Executive Officer

Alexander Karp is a co-founder of Palantir Technologies and has served as CEO since its early days. He earned a J.D. from Stanford Law School and a Ph.D. in neoclassical social theory from Goethe University Frankfurt. Before co-founding Palantir in 2003/2004, Karp established and managed the London-based money management firm Caedmon Group, through which he successfully managed investments for high-net-worth clients.

David Glazer, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

David Glazer joined Palantir in July 2013 and became Chief Financial Officer in July 2020. Prior to this role, he held various leadership positions within the company, including Head of Finance, Head of Switzerland, and Investor Relations/Global Head of Real Estate. Before joining Palantir, Glazer was a corporate securities attorney at Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati, where he specialized in advising technology companies on IPOs, mergers, and corporate governance. He holds a J.D. from Emory University School of Law and a B.A. from Santa Clara University.

Shyam Sankar, Chief Technology Officer and Executive Vice President

Shyam Sankar joined Palantir Technologies as its 13th employee in 2006. He pioneered the company's "Forward Deployed Engineer" model, which involves embedding engineers directly with clients to address complex data challenges. Sankar holds a B.S. in Electrical and Computer Engineering from Cornell University and an M.S. in Management Science and Engineering from Stanford University. He also serves as Chairman of Ginkgo Bioworks.

Ryan Taylor, Chief Revenue Officer and Chief Legal Officer

Ryan Taylor has been with Palantir since 2010. Before assuming his current roles, he served as Chief Legal and Business Affairs Officer at Palantir from 2020 to 2023. His professional journey includes roles as an Associate at Covington & Burling and a Law Clerk at the United States District Court for the Central District of California. Taylor holds a J.D. from Harvard Law School and degrees in Management Science & Engineering and Computer Science from Stanford University.

Stephen Cohen, President and Secretary

Stephen Cohen is one of the co-founders of Palantir Technologies. He co-founded the company in 2003/2004 alongside Peter Thiel, Alex Karp, Joe Lonsdale, and Nathan Gettings. He has served in various positions with the company since its inception and is also a member of the Board of Directors.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Key Risks to Palantir Technologies (PLTR)

  1. Reliance on Government Contracts and Reputational Risks: Palantir Technologies heavily relies on contracts with government agencies, including the intelligence community and defense sectors, which constitute a significant portion of its revenue. This dependence exposes the company to risks associated with changes in government priorities, political shifts, budget cuts, and contract losses. Furthermore, the nature of its work, particularly in surveillance and data analytics for government entities, often raises concerns regarding data privacy, civil liberties, and ethical implications. Public scrutiny and political backlash related to its operations, especially with agencies like Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), can lead to reputational damage and impact its ability to secure new contracts or retain existing ones. Geopolitical tensions can also influence demand for its software, creating unpredictable revenue streams.
  2. High Valuation and Commercial Growth Uncertainty: Palantir's stock is frequently noted for its "excessively high" or "stretched" valuation, with high price-to-earnings and price-to-sales ratios. This indicates that the company is "priced for perfection," leaving little margin for error and making the stock highly vulnerable to significant corrections if it fails to consistently meet ambitious growth expectations. While Palantir aims to diversify its revenue by expanding its commercial client base through its Foundry platform, this segment faces challenges. The company's software often involves large, complex, and costly implementations, which may limit its appeal to small and mid-sized businesses and slow down the scaling of its commercial operations, thus sustaining its reliance on government spending for overall growth.
  3. Intensifying Competition and Potential Loss of Differentiation: The data analytics and artificial intelligence (AI) sectors in which Palantir operates are highly competitive and rapidly evolving. The company faces increasing competition from well-established technology giants such as Microsoft, Amazon Web Services (AWS), and Databricks, as well as emerging startups that are developing rival AI platforms and data solutions. This competitive landscape could lead to an erosion of Palantir's pricing power and a loss of its competitive advantage if competitors achieve feature parity or if customers increasingly opt for in-house developed solutions rather than purchasing Palantir's platforms.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The increasing maturity and integration of native data, analytics, artificial intelligence (AI), and machine learning (ML) services offered by major cloud hyperscalers (e.g., Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud Platform) represent a clear emerging threat. These platforms provide comprehensive and often more modular alternatives for enterprises to manage, analyze, and operationalize their data, directly competing with Palantir's Foundry and Apollo platforms by offering similar capabilities directly within the cloud environment. Furthermore, the rapid advancement and accessibility of open-source AI and ML frameworks and libraries empower organizations to build customized solutions with greater flexibility and potentially lower cost, reducing reliance on proprietary, end-to-end platforms like Palantir's.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Palantir Technologies (PLTR) over the next 2-3 years:

  1. Accelerated Adoption and Expansion of the Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP): Palantir's Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) is consistently highlighted as a primary driver of revenue growth, particularly within the U.S. commercial sector. The company's "bootcamp" go-to-market strategy for AIP is effectively shortening sales cycles and rapidly converting new clients by demonstrating how the platform can integrate generative AI with operational data and workflows to solve real-world business problems. This strategy is enabling triple-digit U.S. commercial growth.
  2. Strong Growth in U.S. Commercial Business: Palantir's U.S. commercial business, predominantly driven by its Foundry platform, is experiencing significant and accelerating year-over-year revenue increases. This momentum is fueled by strong demand for its AI-driven solutions and the platform's ability to help enterprises turn complex, siloed data into actionable intelligence across various use cases such as supply chain optimization and predictive manufacturing.
  3. Continued Expansion of Government Contracts: Palantir maintains a strong and growing presence in the government sector, especially with the U.S. government. The Gotham platform continues to be indispensable for governments and defense in mission-critical analytics, integrating vast datasets to identify threats and enhance situational awareness. Securing and expanding large government contracts remains a foundational driver of revenue.
  4. Increased Customer Lifetime Value and Net Dollar Retention: The company is demonstrating strong customer engagement and expansion, reflected in its high net dollar retention rate and record total contract value (TCV) bookings. Existing customers are increasingly expanding their use of Palantir's platforms, leading to sustained and growing revenue streams as they integrate and apply the software more broadly across their operations.

AI Analysis | Feedback


Share Repurchases

  • Palantir Technologies announced a $1 billion stock buyback program on August 8, 2023, with no specified end date.
  • In 2024, the company repurchased and retired 2.1 million shares of its Class A common stock for $64.2 million.
  • As of December 31, 2024, $935.8 million remained available for future repurchases under the authorized program.

Share Issuance

  • Palantir's annual basic shares outstanding increased to $2.37 billion in 2025, up 5.31% from $2.25 billion in 2024.
  • Basic shares outstanding for 2024 increased by 4.78% from $2.147 billion in 2023, which itself was a 4.05% increase from 2022.
  • Diluted average shares outstanding grew from $1.9 billion in 2021 to $2.6 billion by the fourth quarter of 2025.

Outbound Investments

  • Palantir has engaged in a program of investing in companies, including those going public via SPACs, in exchange for multi-year commitments to use its software.
  • As of June 30, [year not specified, but context suggests 2021], the company committed $250 million to a group of 10 companies through SPACs, with potential commercial contracts valued at $428 million.
  • No investments were purchased under Investment Agreements during the fiscal years ended December 31, 2025, or 2024.

Capital Expenditures

  • Palantir Technologies' annual capital expenditures were $33.88 million in 2025, $12.63 million in 2024, and $15.11 million in 2023.
  • In 2022, the company's capital expenditures were $40.03 million.
  • Palantir is characterized as a "capital-light software player" maintaining minimal capital expenditures.

Better Bets vs. Palantir Technologies (PLTR)

Peer Outperformance in Application Software

PLTR has outperformed 98% of its 125 Application Software peers over 5Y. Application Software ranks 11th of 12 industries in Information Technology by median 5Y return. The sector’s gains have largely come from elsewhere.
Share of Application Software constituents that PLTR has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
49%
of 152 industry peers · -10.0% return
3Y
100%
of 137 industry peers · 808.9% return
5Y
98%
of 125 industry peers · 548.7% return
No Application Software peer with a comparable growth profile has beaten PLTR by more than 20pp over 5Y.
Median price return by industry across the Information Technology sector, ranked by 5Y. Application Software is PLTR's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
Industry Names 1Y med3Y med5Y med Top 3 by 5Y
Electronic Manufacturing Services 10 17.2%109.4%187.6% FLEX 488% · TTMI 419% · JBL 311%
Technology Distributors 9 52.3%67.5%72.9% AVT 148% · SNX 123% · CNXN 99%
Electronic Components 24 16.4%69.6%35.2% CLS 2134% · BELFA 1016% · APH 318%
Communications Equipment 36 8.7%75.7%31.6% LITE 609% · AAOI 586% · ANET 445%
Semiconductor Materials & Equipment 28 42.7%55.4%31.5% AXTI 418% · LRCX 289% · KLAC 284%
Electronic Equipment & Instruments 27 -2.2%28.0%4.3% PI 130% · OSIS 116% · CXT 71%
Semiconductors 55 2.3%45.5%1.3% MU 1027% · NVDA 575% · AVGO 548%
Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals 21 7.9%85.9%-14.2% WDC 691% · DELL 652% · STX 574%
Internet Services & Infrastructure 6 3.5%45.5%-20.9% GDDY 58% · VRSN 40% · DOCN -20%
IT Consulting & Other Services 30 -18.2%1.2%-26.5% APLD 303% · IBM 155% · GIB -8%
Application Software ← 126 -9.9%-6.3%-50.0% PLTR 549% · AGYS 157% · FROG 144%
Systems Software 70 -8.4%24.1%-51.9% ZETA 255% · CRWD 245% · CVLT 146%
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are limited to companies above $2B market cap.

Latest Trefis Analyses

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

PLTRMSFTAMZNGOOGLSNOWIBMMedian
NamePalantir.MicrosoftAmazon.c.Alphabet SnowflakeInternat. 
Mkt Price170.32554.05265.55290.59289.20254.03277.38
Mkt Cap409.74,114.42,867.13,561.5101.0239.91,638.4
Rev LTM7,288346,445797,455471,0985,43569,870208,158
Op Inc LTM3,326163,191104,366156,976-1,23712,80858,587
FCF LTM4,05459,957-46,89219,7471,19314,0189,036
FCF 3Y Avg2,27670,2122,20749,70791412,5877,432
CFO LTM4,097195,878168,300179,5511,25315,83192,066
CFO 3Y Avg2,303155,021137,232145,35999414,29775,765

Growth & Margins

PLTRMSFTAMZNGOOGLSNOWIBMMedian
NamePalantir.MicrosoftAmazon.c.Alphabet SnowflakeInternat. 
Rev Chg LTM87.1%17.9%15.4%22.2%32.0%6.8%20.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg52.9%16.6%12.9%16.7%30.5%4.5%16.7%
Rev Chg Q95.9%18.8%12.1%24.7%35.1%4.7%21.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM18.4%4.4%2.8%5.7%8.0%1.1%5.0%
Op Inc Chg LTM291.5%20.0%37.0%26.5%19.7%10.9%23.3%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg442.9%20.2%64.1%26.0%-9.3%11.5%23.1%
Op Mgn LTM45.6%47.1%13.1%33.3%-22.8%18.3%25.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg27.1%46.0%11.3%32.1%-32.9%17.2%22.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM2.8%0.3%1.0%0.2%3.4%-0.1%0.7%
CFO/Rev LTM56.2%56.5%21.1%38.1%23.1%22.7%30.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg46.8%51.5%19.4%36.1%23.7%21.7%29.9%
FCF/Rev LTM55.6%17.3%-5.9%4.2%22.0%20.1%18.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg46.2%24.1%0.9%13.2%21.7%19.1%20.4%

Valuation

PLTRMSFTAMZNGOOGLSNOWIBMMedian
NamePalantir.MicrosoftAmazon.c.Alphabet SnowflakeInternat. 
Mkt Cap409.74,114.42,867.13,561.5101.0239.91,638.4
P/S56.211.93.67.618.63.49.7
P/Op Inc123.225.227.522.7-81.718.724.0
P/EBIT123.222.816.012.3-94.719.317.7
P/E111.728.821.315.1-92.621.521.4
P/CFO100.021.017.019.880.615.220.4
Total Yield0.9%4.1%4.7%7.0%-1.1%7.3%4.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.7%0.0%0.3%0.0%2.6%0.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg0.8%2.0%0.3%1.9%1.4%5.7%1.6%
D/E0.00.00.10.00.00.30.0
Net D/E-0.0-0.00.1-0.00.00.20.0

Returns

PLTRMSFTAMZNGOOGLSNOWIBMMedian
NamePalantir.MicrosoftAmazon.c.Alphabet SnowflakeInternat. 
1M Rtn-10.1%5.5%5.6%-16.1%-14.7%14.6%-2.3%
3M Rtn7.5%13.9%-2.6%-19.8%-8.7%8.4%2.5%
6M Rtn27.3%34.4%-3.4%-26.9%107.0%14.2%20.7%
12M Rtn-10.7%8.6%6.5%5.0%9.0%-13.4%5.7%
3Y Rtn801.6%60.7%91.6%127.2%92.8%88.4%92.2%
1M Excs Rtn-8.2%7.9%6.8%-13.2%-10.7%18.0%-0.7%
3M Excs Rtn11.1%12.9%-0.6%-16.9%-7.2%11.4%5.2%
6M Excs Rtn24.6%31.6%-6.2%-29.7%104.2%11.4%18.0%
12M Excs Rtn-28.2%-2.4%-5.9%-7.8%-6.1%-24.9%-6.9%
3Y Excs Rtn978.4%-13.3%18.6%53.6%19.4%13.8%19.0%

Comparison Analyses

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Government2,4021,5701,2221,072897
Commercial2,0731,2961,003834645
Total4,4752,8662,2251,9061,542


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Government1,576948725621542
Commercial1,367772521414358
Research and development expenses-421-343-307-266-237
General and administrative expenses-424-375-343-366-295
Stock-based compensation expense-684-692-476-565-778
Total1,414310120-161-411


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$171.70 
Market Cap ($ Bil)413.1 
First Trading Date09/30/2020 
Distance from 52W High-17.9% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$186.84$153.61
DMA Trendupup
Distance from DMA-8.1%11.8%
 3M1YR
Volatility49.0%60.7%
Downside Capture165.76239.74
Upside Capture265.21192.42
Correlation (S&P 500)54.6%43.2%
PLTR Betas & Captures as of 10/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta3.072.384.142.012.022.11
Up Beta1.143.108.363.401.992.06
Down Beta4.604.133.491.741.521.66
Up Capture277%187%535%224%328%8238%
Bmk +ve Days12182862130427
Stock +ve Days10213261126397
Down Capture239%160%175%133%160%112%
Bmk -ve Days10253664121325
Stock -ve Days12223265125351

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with PLTR
PLTR-17.2%60.7%-0.09-
Sector ETF (XLK)17.5%27.3%0.5643.2%
Equity (SPY)13.2%12.9%0.6841.6%
Gold (GLD)1.0%28.8%0.0321.5%
Commodities (DBC)35.9%21.2%1.340.4%
Real Estate (VNQ)14.3%14.1%0.70-2.8%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-28.2%43.4%-0.6535.1%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with PLTR
PLTR47.0%66.9%0.84-
Sector ETF (XLK)18.1%26.2%0.6253.8%
Equity (SPY)12.5%17.2%0.5553.5%
Gold (GLD)17.3%19.1%0.739.7%
Commodities (DBC)8.0%19.6%0.297.0%
Real Estate (VNQ)1.8%18.9%-0.0131.1%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)5.5%51.5%0.2932.4%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with PLTR
PLTR33.6%69.7%0.97-
Sector ETF (XLK)23.4%25.2%0.8548.0%
Equity (SPY)15.4%18.0%0.7346.2%
Gold (GLD)11.9%16.5%0.598.3%
Commodities (DBC)7.4%18.1%0.336.8%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.7%20.7%0.2326.7%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)61.0%66.2%1.0125.6%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10152026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity56.1 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 93020260.9%
Average Daily Volume23.2 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.4 days
Basic Shares Quantity2,405.7 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares2.3%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 11/5/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/2/2026-1.6%  
8/3/202629.5%39.5%43.2%
5/4/2026-6.9%-6.3%-2.6%
2/2/20266.8%-3.3%3.7%
11/3/2025-7.9%-6.5%-14.1%
8/4/20257.8%13.7%-3.6%
5/5/2025-12.0%-4.3%5.0%
2/3/202524.0%39.3%7.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131313
# Negative121111
Median Positive20.4%23.0%30.9%
Median Negative-11.8%-12.3%-11.9%
Max Positive30.8%49.8%89.8%
Max Negative-21.3%-16.9%-36.4%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/2/2026-1.6%  
8/3/202629.5%39.5%43.2%
5/4/2026-6.9%-6.3%-2.6%
2/2/20266.8%-3.3%3.7%
11/3/2025-7.9%-6.5%-14.1%
8/4/20257.8%13.7%-3.6%
5/5/2025-12.0%-4.3%5.0%
2/3/202524.0%39.3%7.6%
11/4/202423.5%45.5%68.7%
8/5/202410.4%22.0%27.0%
5/6/2024-15.1%-16.9%-8.9%
2/5/202430.8%49.8%56.5%
11/2/202320.4%23.9%35.9%
8/7/2023-5.3%-12.6%-15.0%
5/8/202323.4%23.0%89.8%
2/13/202321.2%11.3%3.8%
11/7/2022-11.5%6.1%-11.9%
8/8/2022-14.2%-13.4%-36.4%
5/9/2022-21.3%-12.0%-3.7%
2/17/2022-15.7%-15.3%-8.2%
11/9/2021-9.3%-12.5%-25.9%
8/12/202111.4%13.1%17.6%
5/11/20219.4%10.8%30.9%
2/16/2021-12.8%-12.3%-19.7%
11/12/20208.4%30.2%86.8%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131313
# Negative121111
Median Positive20.4%23.0%30.9%
Median Negative-11.8%-12.3%-11.9%
Max Positive30.8%49.8%89.8%
Max Negative-21.3%-16.9%-36.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
09/30/202611/03/202610-Q
06/30/202608/04/202610-Q
03/31/202605/05/202610-Q
12/31/202502/17/202610-K
09/30/202511/04/202510-Q
06/30/202508/05/202510-Q
03/31/202505/06/202510-Q
12/31/202402/18/202510-K
09/30/202411/05/202410-Q
06/30/202408/06/202410-Q
03/31/202405/07/202410-Q
12/31/202302/20/202410-K
09/30/202311/03/202310-Q
06/30/202308/08/202310-Q
03/31/202305/09/202310-Q
12/31/202202/21/202310-K
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
09/30/202611/03/202610-Q
06/30/202608/04/202610-Q
03/31/202605/05/202610-Q
12/31/202502/17/202610-K
09/30/202511/04/202510-Q
06/30/202508/05/202510-Q
03/31/202505/06/202510-Q
12/31/202402/18/202510-K
09/30/202411/05/202410-Q
06/30/202408/06/202410-Q
03/31/202405/07/202410-Q
12/31/202302/20/202410-K
09/30/202311/03/202310-Q
06/30/202308/08/202310-Q
03/31/202305/09/202310-Q
12/31/202202/21/202310-K
09/30/202211/07/202210-Q
06/30/202208/08/202210-Q
03/31/202205/09/202210-Q
12/31/202102/24/202210-K
09/30/202111/09/202110-Q
06/30/202108/12/202110-Q
03/31/202105/12/202110-Q
12/31/202002/26/202110-K
09/30/202011/13/202010-Q
06/30/202009/30/2020424B4

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 11/3/2026

Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 11/2/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q4 2026 Adjusted Income from OperationsReported1.64 Bil1.64 Bil1.64 Bil26.9% Higher NewGuidance: 1.29 Bil for Q3 2026
Q4 2026 RevenueReported2.65 Bil2.65 Bil2.65 Bil22.6% Higher NewGuidance: 2.16 Bil for Q3 2026
2026 Adjusted Income from OperationsReported5.25 Bil5.25 Bil5.25 Bil7.2% RaisedGuidance: 4.89 Bil for 2026
2026 RevenueReported8.53 Bil8.53 Bil8.53 Bil4.6% RaisedGuidance: 8.15 Bil for 2026
2026 Revenue GrowthReported 91.0%   Raised
2026 U.S. Commercial RevenueReported3.56 Bil3.56 Bil 3.9% RaisedGuidance: 3.42 Bil for 2026
2026 U.S. Commercial Revenue GrowthReported143.0%143.0%  9.0%RaisedGuidance: 134.0% for 2026
2026 Adjusted Free Cash FlowReported4.80 Bil4.90 Bil5.00 Bil6.5% RaisedGuidance: 4.60 Bil for 2026


Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/3/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q3 2026 Adjusted Income from OperationsReported1.29 Bil1.29 Bil1.30 Bil   
Q3 2026 RevenueReported2.16 Bil2.16 Bil2.16 Bil   
2026 Adjusted Income from OperationsReported4.89 Bil4.89 Bil4.90 Bil10.1% RaisedGuidance: 4.45 Bil for 2026
2026 RevenueReported8.15 Bil8.15 Bil8.16 Bil6.5% RaisedGuidance: 7.66 Bil for 2026
2026 U.S. Commercial RevenueReported 3.42 Bil 6.2% RaisedGuidance: 3.22 Bil for 2026
2026 U.S. Commercial Revenue GrowthReported 134.0%  14.0%RaisedGuidance: 120.0% for 2026
2026 Adjusted Free Cash FlowReported4.50 Bil4.60 Bil4.70 Bil7.0% RaisedGuidance: 4.30 Bil for 2026

Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/4/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q2 2026 Adjusted Income from OperationsReported1.06 Bil1.06 Bil1.07 Bil   
Q2 2026 RevenueReported1.80 Bil1.80 Bil1.80 Bil   
2026 Adjusted Income from OperationsReported4.44 Bil4.45 Bil4.45 Bil7.5% RaisedGuidance: 4.13 Bil for 2026
2026 RevenueReported7.65 Bil7.66 Bil7.66 Bil6.5% RaisedGuidance: 7.19 Bil for 2026
2026 U.S. Commercial RevenueReported 3.22 Bil 2.5% RaisedGuidance: 3.14 Bil for 2026
2026 Adjusted Free Cash FlowReported4.20 Bil4.30 Bil4.40 Bil6.8% RaisedGuidance: 4.03 Bil for 2026

Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/2/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q1 2026 Adjusted Income from OperationsReported870.00 Mil872.00 Mil874.00 Mil25.1% Higher NewGuidance: 697.00 Mil for Q4 2025
Q1 2026 RevenueReported1.53 Bil1.53 Bil1.54 Bil15.4% Higher NewGuidance: 1.33 Bil for Q4 2025
2026 Adjusted Income from OperationsReported4.13 Bil4.13 Bil4.14 Bil92.0% Higher NewGuidance: 2.15 Bil for 2025
2026 RevenueReported7.18 Bil7.19 Bil7.20 Bil63.5% Higher NewGuidance: 4.40 Bil for 2025
2026 U.S. Commercial RevenueReported 3.14 Bil 119.4% Higher NewGuidance: 1.43 Bil for 2025
2026 U.S. Commercial Revenue GrowthReported 115.0%  11.0%Higher NewGuidance: 104.0% for 2025
2026 Adjusted Free Cash FlowReported3.92 Bil4.03 Bil4.12 Bil101.2% Higher NewGuidance: 2.00 Bil for 2025

Insider Activity

Updated 11/4/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Stat, Lauren Elaina Friedman DirectSell11042026186.291,358252,9828,391,247Form
2Moore, Alexander D DirectSell10192026197.9916,0003,167,867207,316,087Form
3Woersching, Eric H DirectSell10142026205.001,000205,000710,325Form
4Stat, Lauren Elaina Friedman DirectSell10132026199.005,0261,000,1749,233,998Form
5Taylor, Ryan DSee RemarksDirectSell10132026201.1518,0003,620,70055,249,267Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Stat, Lauren Elaina Friedman DirectSell11042026186.291,358252,9828,391,247Form
2Moore, Alexander D DirectSell10192026197.9916,0003,167,867207,316,087Form
3Woersching, Eric H DirectSell10142026205.001,000205,000710,325Form
4Stat, Lauren Elaina Friedman DirectSell10132026199.005,0261,000,1749,233,998Form
5Taylor, Ryan DSee RemarksDirectSell10132026201.1518,0003,620,70055,249,267Form
6Stat, Lauren Elaina Friedman DirectSell10052026189.951,337253,9639,768,749Form
7Moore, Alexander D DirectSell9172026172.6416,0002,762,292183,536,161Form
8Stat, Lauren Elaina Friedman DirectSell9032026182.501,342244,9159,629,612Form
9Buckley, JeffreySee RemarksDirectSell8242026174.291,250217,8629,920,761Form
10Karp, Alexander CSee RemarksDirectSell8242026174.79492,34886,057,4731,124,293,936Form
11Buckley, JeffreySee RemarksDirectSell8242026174.832,055359,27110,169,904Form
12Moore, Alexander D DirectSell8192026174.2816,0002,788,463188,063,519Form
13Sankar, ShyamSee RemarksDirectSell8102026155.7035,0005,449,544100,082,588Form
14Stat, Lauren Elaina Friedman DirectSell8072026165.003,032500,2808,927,655Form
15Moore, Alexander D DirectSell7172026134.0516,0002,144,770146,795,438Form
16Sankar, ShyamSee RemarksDirectSell7072026130.0035,0004,550,00083,562,180Form
17Sankar, ShyamSee RemarksSee FootnoteSell7072026130.00150,00019,500,00077,986,870Form
18Moore, Alexander D DirectSell6172026133.3516,0002,133,605148,164,876Form
19Buckley, JeffreySee RemarksDirectSell6152026128.801,481190,7537,757,109Form
20Stat, Lauren Elaina Friedman DirectSell6022026160.001,598255,6808,803,520Form
21Stat, Lauren Elaina Friedman DirectSell6022026150.001,667250,0508,493,000Form
22Buckley, JeffreySee RemarksDirectSell5222026137.41830114,0508,479,159Form
23Glazer, David ASee RemarksDirectSell5222026136.0417,1282,330,13051,048,721Form
24Taylor, Ryan DSee RemarksDirectSell5222026136.0419,6622,674,85927,175,630Form
25Karp, Alexander CSee RemarksDirectSell5222026136.04397,74454,109,936875,057,999Form
26Sankar, ShyamSee RemarksDirectSell5222026136.04165,51422,516,87687,445,971Form
27Cohen, Stephen AndrewSee RemarksDirectSell5222026136.04319,93443,524,50180,537Form
28Buckley, JeffreySee RemarksDirectSell5222026136.041,712232,9038,507,643Form
29Moore, Alexander D DirectSell5192026134.0416,0002,144,663150,793,664Form
30Moore, Alexander D DirectSell4172026139.4116,0002,230,580159,065,202Form
31Moore, Alexander D DirectSell3182026152.4116,0002,438,623176,339,547Form
32Thiel, PeterSee FootnoteSell3042026144.852,000,000289,707,5071,989,367,131Form
33Buckley, JeffreySee RemarksDirectSell2242026129.081,232159,0275,564,381Form
34Buckley, JeffreySee RemarksDirectSell2242026133.722,704361,5755,929,073Form
35Taylor, Ryan DSee RemarksDirectSell2242026133.7219,9882,672,76529,340,646Form
36Glazer, David ASee RemarksDirectSell2242026133.7217,4382,331,78252,467,111Form
37Sankar, ShyamSee RemarksDirectSell2242026133.72168,00422,465,23185,952,333Form
38Cohen, Stephen AndrewSee RemarksDirectSell2242026133.72327,08843,737,69679,161Form
39Karp, Alexander CSee RemarksDirectSell2242026133.78493,02565,955,988860,495,774Form
40Stat, Lauren Elaina Friedman DirectSell2042026151.1440060,4568,809,497Form
41Moore, Alexander D DirectSell2042026149.6520,0002,992,984175,535,208Form
42Stat, Lauren Elaina Friedman DirectSell1062026181.353,400616,59010,642,887Form
43Moore, Alexander D DirectSell1062026172.9820,0003,459,615206,362,217Form
44Taylor, Ryan DSee RemarksDirectSell1062026181.3512,0002,176,20043,416,822Form
45Glazer, David ASee RemarksDirectSell12162025185.919,0001,673,19076,899,626Form
46Moore, Alexander D DirectSell12032025167.1920,0003,343,833202,799,807Form
47Buckley, JeffreySee RemarksDirectSell11242025157.501,252197,1907,409,430Form
48Taylor, Ryan DSee RemarksDirectSell11242025162.3636,0485,852,78440,818,982Form
49Buckley, JeffreySee RemarksDirectSell11242025156.2530046,8757,546,324Form
50Taylor, Ryan DSee RemarksDirectSell11242025156.252,252351,87844,915,571Form
51Glazer, David ASee RemarksDirectSell11242025156.251,973308,28664,632,034Form
52Sankar, ShyamSee RemarksDirectSell11242025156.2519,0042,969,402100,436,219Form
53Cohen, Stephen AndrewSee RemarksDirectSell11242025156.2539,1366,115,05592,501Form
54Karp, Alexander CSee RemarksDirectSell11242025156.2545,5647,119,4361,005,048,888Form
55Buckley, JeffreySee RemarksDirectSell11242025163.992,365387,8337,969,183Form
56Taylor, Ryan DSee RemarksDirectSell11242025163.9917,7612,912,56647,508,391Form
57Glazer, David ASee RemarksDirectSell11242025163.9915,5572,551,12268,154,335Form
58Sankar, ShyamSee RemarksDirectSell11242025163.99149,87224,576,902105,407,870Form
59Cohen, Stephen AndrewSee RemarksDirectSell11242025163.99308,63550,611,80997,080Form
60Karp, Alexander CSee RemarksDirectSell11242025163.99359,32558,924,2661,054,800,191Form
61Moore, Alexander D DirectSell11052025204.5420,0004,090,887252,198,658Form

Investor Activity (13F)

Updated Nov 5, 2026
13F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)

Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.

Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Cypress Point Wealth Management, LLC$135.7 Mil29.2%123Hold13F
Allen Operations LLC$164.6 Mil24.6%36Hold13F
Allen Holding Inc /Ny$219.4 Mil21.8%9TRIM -6.3%13F
Defender Capital, LLC.$41.7 Mil14.8%34ADD +17.4%13F
Fortress Private Ledger, LLC$40.9 Mil12.8%245ADD +5.4%13F
UNICOM Systems, Inc.$122.7 Mil12.6%32Hold13F
Dock Street Asset Management Inc$108.9 Mil11.5%58Hold13F
Hound Partners, LLC$79.4 Mil10.0%34Hold13F
Heard Capital LLC$193.3 Mil10.0%21ADD +46.4%13F
FFG Partners, LLC$20.9 Mil8.3%35TRIM -8.9%13F
KEYWISE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT (HK) Ltd$46.8 Mil7.9%10TRIM -84.3%13F
SW Investment Management LLC$24.9 Mil5.5%8Hold13F
Hyperion Asset Management Ltd$143.1 Mil4.6%18TRIM -35.4%13F
Matthew 25 Management Corp$12.5 Mil4.2%20New13F
Elite Wealth Management, Inc.$9.6 Mil3.1%49TRIM -8.1%13F
KADENSA CAPITAL Ltd$20.6 Mil2.9%39ADD +7.5%13F
Westwood Wealth Management$6.3 Mil2.5%42New13F
Ratan Capital Management LP$5.5 Mil2.0%37New13F
Ithaka Group LLC$9.5 Mil2.0%38Hold13F
Science & Technology Partners, L.P.$7.5 Mil2.0%42New13F
Parker Investment Management, LLC$12.9 Mil2.0%37ADD +35.9%13F
BSN CAPITAL PARTNERS Ltd$37.4 Mil1.8%41New13F
Proem Advisors LLC$5.2 Mil1.7%29New13F
Archon Partners LLC$14.6 Mil1.7%39TRIM -13.0%13F
CTC LLC$18.6 Mil1.5%25TRIM -60.4%13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
BSN CAPITAL PARTNERS Ltd$37.4 Mil1.8%41New13F
Matthew 25 Management Corp$12.5 Mil4.2%20New13F
Science & Technology Partners, L.P.$7.5 Mil2.0%42New13F
Westwood Wealth Management$6.3 Mil2.5%42New13F
Ratan Capital Management LP$5.5 Mil2.0%37New13F
Proem Advisors LLC$5.2 Mil1.7%29New13F
Heard Capital LLC$193.3 Mil10.0%21ADD +46.4%13F
Parker Investment Management, LLC$12.9 Mil2.0%37ADD +35.9%13F
Defender Capital, LLC.$41.7 Mil14.8%34ADD +17.4%13F
KADENSA CAPITAL Ltd$20.6 Mil2.9%39ADD +7.5%13F
Fortress Private Ledger, LLC$40.9 Mil12.8%245ADD +5.4%13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQAs OfFiling
RK Capital Management, LLC/FL$62.2 Mil3.9%20ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Agave Capital Management Ltd$23.4 Mil3.9%23ExitedDec 31, 202513F
VMS Asset Management Limited$5.4 Mil2.1%42ExitedDec 31, 202513F
KEYWISE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT (HK) Ltd$46.8 Mil7.9%10TRIM -84.3%Mar 31, 202613F
CTC LLC$18.6 Mil1.5%25TRIM -60.4%Mar 31, 202613F
Hyperion Asset Management Ltd$143.1 Mil4.6%18TRIM -35.4%Mar 31, 202613F
Archon Partners LLC$14.6 Mil1.7%39TRIM -13.0%Mar 31, 202613F
FFG Partners, LLC$20.9 Mil8.3%35TRIM -8.9%Mar 31, 202613F
Elite Wealth Management, Inc.$9.6 Mil3.1%49TRIM -8.1%Mar 31, 202613F
Allen Holding Inc /Ny$219.4 Mil21.8%9TRIM -6.3%Mar 31, 202613F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Allen Holding Inc /Ny$219.4 Mil21.8%9TRIM -6.3%13F
Heard Capital LLC$193.3 Mil10.0%21ADD +46.4%13F
Allen Operations LLC$164.6 Mil24.6%36Hold13F
Hyperion Asset Management Ltd$143.1 Mil4.6%18TRIM -35.4%13F
Cypress Point Wealth Management, LLC$135.7 Mil29.2%123Hold13F
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PLTR Trade Sentinel


Stock Conviction

Constructive

CONVICTION RATIONALE

Conviction is constructive, anchored by explosive and accelerating U.S. commercial demand, with revenue growth of 148% and net dollar retention of 165%. The company's Artificial Intelligence Platform is capturing a wave of enterprise spending. This momentum is balanced against geographic concentration in the U.S. and long-term competition from much larger technology companies.

STOCK ARCHETYPE

Revenue = (Number of Customers) x (Average Contract Value). Growth is driven by both acquiring new large enterprise customers and, more significantly, expanding the contract value with existing customers. Operating leverage. As a software company, incremental revenue from contract expansions carries very high margins. Profits are driven by revenue growing much faster (87.1% TTM) than operating expenses (24% TTM).

Looking for high-conviction positions with a better risk/reward profile? See what's currently in the Trefis High Quality Portfolio.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Is Palantir the essential platform for the enterprise 'Sovereign AI' wave?

Evidence suggests it is, with its AIP platform driving historic growth by enabling large companies to deploy AI on their own data.

Mechanism: Hypergrowth in the U.S. commercial segment, which grew 148% YoY, is driving massive operating leverage as revenue growth far outpaces the 24% growth in operating expenses.
Supporting Evidence:
  • U.S. commercial revenue grew 148% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
  • Net dollar retention accelerated for the fourth straight quarter to 165%.
  • Remaining Performance Obligations grew 88% year-over-year to $4.9 billion.
  • Full-year U.S. commercial revenue guidance was raised to at least 143% growth.
  • TTM operating margin expanded by 23.8 percentage points to 45.6%.
PRIMARY RISK
A U.S.-only growth story.

The company's hypergrowth is almost entirely concentrated in the U.S., which grew 119% YoY, while international markets appear to be struggling, raising questions about the global scalability of its model and the durability of its runway.

Mechanism: A deceleration in U.S. commercial growth combined with continued international stagnation would confirm the thesis is geographically contained.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Management commentary suggested avoiding discussion of European performance.
  • The top three customers account for 16% of revenue, a concentration risk.
  • Microsoft's revenue is 47.5 times larger, indicating a massive scale disadvantage.
  • Amazon's AWS segment grew 39.3% in its latest quarter, showing strong competition.
Key KPI Watchlist
KPI Status Rationale
U.S. Commercial Revenue Growth148% year-over-year growth for Q3 2026 - AcceleratingThe U.S. Commercial segment is experiencing explosive, accelerating growth. After posting 133% year-over-year growth in Q1, the rate jumped to 149% in Q2 and held at a very strong 148% in Q3. Sequential growth has also accelerated, indicating powerful near-term momentum. Management commentary highlights that for the first time, U.S. commercial revenue surpassed U.S. government revenue, marking a critical milestone.
Net Dollar Retention (NDR)165% for Q3 2026 - AcceleratingNet Dollar Retention has accelerated for four consecutive quarters, reaching 165% in the latest quarter. This demonstrates an exceptionally strong ability to expand revenue from existing customers, a core tenet of the company's 'land-and-expand' strategy. The CFO noted the latest increase of 800 basis points from the prior quarter.
Average Revenue from Top 20 Customers (TTM)$146 million (Q3 2026)Measures the company's ability to expand relationships with its largest and most established customers ('land and expand'). Strong growth in this metric, up 76% year-over-year, indicates deep integration and increasing reliance on Palantir's platforms.
Rule of 40 Score158% (Q3 2026)A key software industry metric combines revenue growth rate and profit margin.
Core Investment Debate

U.S. Juggernaut vs. Global Bottleneck

BULL VIEW

Bulls believe the 'insatiable' U.S. demand, growing at 148% in commercial, is the start of a multi-year cycle that is large enough to sustain hypergrowth on its own.

CORE TENSION

Can accelerating U.S. commercial growth (148% YoY) and a rising backlog (RPO up 88%) overcome the structural risk of a stalled international business?


PREVAILING SENTIMENT
CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

The latest evidence strongly favors the bull view. Management raised full-year U.S. commercial revenue guidance, and leading indicators like RPO growth signal continued near-term strength.

BEAR VIEW

Bears see the stark contrast with weak European performance as proof of a limited global market, arguing the current growth rate is a geographical anomaly that cannot last.

Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
Timeline Event & Metric To Watch
1/26/2027
Peer AI Platform Momentum
Watch: Enterprise AI customer counts, revenue growth, and major contract announcements from Microsoft, Amazon, and Google.
2/1/2027
International Performance Scrutiny
Watch: International revenue growth rate in the Q4 report and management's commentary on the European and Asian sales pipeline.
2/1/2027
Q4 2026 Earnings Release
Watch: The company is scheduled to report Q4 and full-year 2026 results and provide its initial 2027 outlook.
2/2/2027
Alphabet Peer Earnings Report
Watch: Alphabet (GOOGL) is scheduled to report earnings, providing updates on its Google Cloud AI offerings.
2/3/2027
Amazon Peer Earnings Report
Watch: Amazon.com (AMZN) is scheduled to report earnings, with updates on its competing AWS AI services like Bedrock.
March 2027
Revolving Credit Facility Matures
Watch: The company's existing revolving credit facility, with total commitments of up to $500.0 million, is scheduled to mature.
No set date
Major Contract Termination
Watch: Announcements of contract de-scoping, non-renewal, or termination for convenience by a major customer.
Key Events in Last 6 Months
Date Event Stock Impact
2026-11-02
Guidance Raised Significantly
Details: With its Q3 results on November 2, management raised its full-year 2026 revenue growth guidance to 96% and U.S. commercial revenue growth guidance to 148%.
-4.7%
$184.11 -> $175.40
2026-11-02
Q3 Results Crush Estimates
Details: On November 2, the company reported Q3 revenue growth of 96% YoY, with U.S. commercial revenue growing 148% and surpassing U.S. government revenue for the first time.
-4.7%
$184.11 -> $175.40
2026-09-10
Deepened Partnership with Fujitsu
Details: On September 10, the company announced a renewed strategic partnership with Fujitsu, which will serve as a Global FDE (Forward Deployed Engineer) Partner.
-1.4%
$169.53 -> $167.23
2026-08-03
Q2 Results Trigger Stock Surge
Details: The company reported Q2 revenue growth of 93% year-over-year to $1.935 billion. The stock had a two-day positive reaction of 32.0% around the August 3 earnings call.
+32.2%
$123.06 -> $162.66
2026-07-22
UK NHS Contract Scrutiny
Details: On July 22, press reports indicated fresh regulatory scrutiny surrounding the company's UK National Health Service (NHS) Federated Data Platform (FDP) contract.
-7.0%
$132.66 -> $123.37
2026-06-22
Secured Role in Army Program
Details: On June 22, the company announced its foundational role in the U.S. Army's Next Generation Command and Control (NGC2) common data layer baseline.
-9.2%
$128.47 -> $116.70
2026-05-04
Q1 Results Beat Expectations
Details: The company reported Q1 2026 results with 85% revenue growth and raised full-year guidance. However, the stock reacted negatively, with a two-day reaction of -6.0%.
-5.7%
$144.07 -> $135.91
Risk Management
Position Sizing

2% - 4%

REDUCED POSITION

Sizing is volatility-based: PLTR trades at roughly 49% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 10% for the S&P 500 (5.0x the market). A 2% - 4% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.

Diversification Alternatives
MSFT - Microsoft
Integrated AI Stack

Microsoft offers a deeply integrated ecosystem from cloud infrastructure (Azure) to applications (Copilot), with a vastly larger distribution channel and customer base.

Core Thesis: The company is embedding AI across its entire product portfolio, positioning its Copilot as the new operating system for enterprise work.
AMZN - Amazon.com
AI Infrastructure Leader

Through AWS, Amazon provides the foundational, scalable cloud infrastructure for AI, competing on price and performance for raw compute and model access.

Core Thesis: The company's AWS platform is benefiting from a flywheel where demand for AI services like Bedrock drives broader cloud adoption.
How Is The Market Pricing PLTR?

Palantir is an enterprise AI arms dealer, providing the critical 'picks and shovels' for the 'Sovereign AI' gold rush, where large organizations demand control over their own data and AI models.

After years of being known as a secretive government contractor, Palantir has pivoted to become a dominant force in the commercial enterprise AI market. Its core thesis is that generic, off-the-shelf AI is insufficient and risky for serious business applications. The company's AIP platform acts as a secure operating system, allowing customers to deploy various AI models on their own proprietary data, a concept it brands as 'Sovereign AI.' This strategy has ignited explosive growth, particularly in the U.S. commercial sector, which is now the company's primary growth engine.

What will confirm the thesis

News of large enterprises, especially in sectors like manufacturing, finance, or healthcare, signing multi-million dollar deals for the AIP platform after short pilot periods. Announcements of partnerships with major cloud providers or systems integrators to broaden distribution.

What will damage the thesis

Reports of slowing U.S. commercial growth, major contract terminations, or evidence that large enterprises are successfully building their own AI platforms internally without needing Palantir. A significant security breach involving a customer's data on Palantir's platform.

Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis

Debates about the company's historical government work or political affiliations, which are less relevant to the current commercial growth story. Announcements of small, international contracts that do not move the needle on the company's overall financial trajectory.

Repricing Catalyst

The market's validation of the 'Sovereign AI' thesis, evidenced by the company's triple-digit U.S. commercial revenue growth and significant guidance raises, which positions Palantir as a primary beneficiary of the enterprise AI investment cycle.

What PLTR Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on the twelve months through fiscal Q3 2026
Government
$3.7B TTM (51% of Total) · 123% Margin
What It Is

Sells the Palantir Gotham platform and other defense offerings to government agencies, particularly in the defense and intelligence communities. The platform integrates data from various sensors and domains to improve situational awareness and operational decision-making.

Who Pays & How

U.S. and allied government agencies pay for software to assist in missions like counterterrorism, military operations, and disaster relief by integrating vast amounts of data into a common operating picture to accelerate decision-making.

Multi-year contracts, which may be subject to government procurement cycles and termination for convenience provisions. The U.S. government is often prohibited from exercising contract options more than one year in advance.
Competition
Internal software development efforts by customers, large government contractors, and system integrators.
Competitors may have greater name recognition, longer operating histories, larger sales budgets, and broader relationships with government customers.
The company targets large-scale, complex problems that have high barriers to entry due to installation costs and failure risks. Its platforms are battle-tested and designed for high-stakes environments.
Commercial
$3.6B TTM (49% of Total) · 127% Margin
What It Is

Sells the Palantir Foundry and AIP platforms to large commercial institutions across industries including banking, healthcare, manufacturing, and energy. The platforms serve as a central operating system for an organization's data, logic, and operations.

Who Pays & How

Large enterprises pay to create a unified data foundation (Ontology) that connects their operational data with AI models, allowing them to build and deploy applications that optimize workflows, from supply chain management to customer service.

Multi-year contracts, often starting with shorter-term pilot deployments or 'bootcamps' to demonstrate value before converting to larger, longer-term agreements.
Competition
Internal software development efforts by customers, large enterprise software companies, and system integrators.
Larger competitors have substantially broader product offerings and may leverage existing customer relationships or bundle products to gain business.
The company's 'Ontology' provides a foundational representation of an organization's data and operations, which it claims is a 'secret weapon' that competitors cannot easily replicate and is necessary to move from AI demos to production value.
PLTR Evolution: Price Return by Era
Pre-2021 · Government-Centric Foundation
-22%
The company was founded to serve the U.S. intelligence community and its business was dominated by government contracts. In 2025, the Government segment accounted for 54% of total revenue, establishing the company's reputation in handling complex, sensitive data problems.
2022-2025 · Commercial Expansion and Pivot
+859%
Palantir began a concerted push into the commercial sector with its Foundry platform. During this period, the Commercial segment's revenue grew significantly, increasing its share of the total from 16% in 2025 to 46% in 2025, setting the stage for its future growth.
2026-Present · The Sovereign AI Juggernaut
+4%
The launch and rapid adoption of the Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) caused an explosion in the U.S. Commercial business. This segment's growth began to dramatically outpace the Government segment, and in Q3 2026, U.S. Commercial revenue exceeded U.S. Government revenue for the first time, marking a fundamental shift in the company's business model and growth narrative.
Market Is In Wait-and-See Mode
Price structure is mildly positive. The trend shows early signs of health but hasn't fully committed. Relative to SPY: Strong 63D outperformance but 'relative strength' momentum is fading, indicating that money rotation may be maturing. Volume and momentum show mild distribution. The selling pressure is present but not overwhelming. Earnings history is mildly cautionary. The reaction or drift are negative, and the market is beginning to push back on the thesis.
① Structure
+1
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
-1
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
-1
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
-1 / 12
1 Price Structure & Trend Potential Bottoming · Golden Cross ▾
2 Momentum Pausing ▾
3 Relative Strength vs. SPY Facing Relative Strength ▾
4 Institutional Footprint & Volume Mild Distribution ▾
5 Volatility Normal ▾
6 Key Price Levels Range · Vol Rising ▾
7 Earnings Reaction History Inconsistent ▾
8 How the Verdict Is Derived Three Pillars ▾
Core Cache Last Updated: 11/4/2026