Palo Alto Networks (PANW)
Market Price (7/26/2026): $324.55 | Market Cap: $260.0 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software
Palo Alto Networks (PANW)
Market Price (7/26/2026): $324.55Market Cap: $260.0 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Systems Software
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%, CFO LTM is 4.2 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.8 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, Cloud Computing, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Network Security, Show more. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 186x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 308x Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 114% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.0% Key risksPANW key risks include [1] its premium pricing model, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%, CFO LTM is 4.2 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.8 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, Cloud Computing, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Network Security, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 186x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 308x |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 114% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.0% |
| Key risksPANW key risks include [1] its premium pricing model, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Palo Alto Networks (PANW) stock has gained about 100% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Robust Fiscal Q3 2026 Earnings Beat and Upbeat Guidance Fueled Investor Confidence. Palo Alto Networks reported strong financial results for its fiscal third quarter 2026, which ended April 30, 2026, on June 2, 2026. The company announced an adjusted earnings per share of $0.85, surpassing analyst consensus estimates of $0.79 by $0.06. Total revenue for the quarter grew 31% year over year to $3.0 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $2.94 billion. Furthermore, Next-Generation Security (NGS) Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) saw a 60% year-over-year increase, reaching $8.1 billion. The company also issued an optimistic full-year fiscal 2026 guidance, projecting diluted non-GAAP net income per share between $3.75 and $3.85. This performance and forward-looking outlook significantly bolstered market sentiment for PANW.
2. Strategic Acquisitions Expanded Observability Platform Amidst Growing Cybersecurity Demand. Palo Alto Networks continued its expansion into the observability market during this period. In July 2026, the company announced its intent to acquire Embrace, a provider of user-focused observability solutions, to integrate Real User Monitoring (RUM) capabilities into its platform. This followed its $3.35 billion acquisition of Chronosphere in January 2026, further deepening its push beyond core security. The company's Observability business demonstrated substantial growth, exceeding $300 million in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) in fiscal Q3 2026. These strategic moves position Palo Alto Networks to offer more comprehensive security and performance monitoring, appealing to enterprises seeking unified solutions.
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Palo Alto Networks (PANW) stock has gained about 100% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Robust Fiscal Q3 2026 Earnings Beat and Upbeat Guidance Fueled Investor Confidence. Palo Alto Networks reported strong financial results for its fiscal third quarter 2026, which ended April 30, 2026, on June 2, 2026. The company announced an adjusted earnings per share of $0.85, surpassing analyst consensus estimates of $0.79 by $0.06. Total revenue for the quarter grew 31% year over year to $3.0 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $2.94 billion. Furthermore, Next-Generation Security (NGS) Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) saw a 60% year-over-year increase, reaching $8.1 billion. The company also issued an optimistic full-year fiscal 2026 guidance, projecting diluted non-GAAP net income per share between $3.75 and $3.85. This performance and forward-looking outlook significantly bolstered market sentiment for PANW.
2. Strategic Acquisitions Expanded Observability Platform Amidst Growing Cybersecurity Demand. Palo Alto Networks continued its expansion into the observability market during this period. In July 2026, the company announced its intent to acquire Embrace, a provider of user-focused observability solutions, to integrate Real User Monitoring (RUM) capabilities into its platform. This followed its $3.35 billion acquisition of Chronosphere in January 2026, further deepening its push beyond core security. The company's Observability business demonstrated substantial growth, exceeding $300 million in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) in fiscal Q3 2026. These strategic moves position Palo Alto Networks to offer more comprehensive security and performance monitoring, appealing to enterprises seeking unified solutions.
3. Escalating AI-Driven Cyber Threats Increased Demand for Advanced Security Solutions. The market experienced a surge in demand for advanced cybersecurity solutions, particularly those leveraging artificial intelligence, due to the escalating sophistication and frequency of cyber threats. Threat actors increasingly utilized AI to automate reconnaissance, enhance phishing campaigns, and exploit vulnerabilities at significantly faster rates, including multi-extortion ransomware tactics. As a recognized leader in AI and cybersecurity, Palo Alto Networks benefited from this heightened threat landscape, seeing accelerated organic bookings growth as organizations prioritized securing their AI deployments. This created a strong tailwind for the company's offerings.
4. Sustained Positive Analyst Sentiment and Upward Price Target Revisions Bolstered Investor Confidence. During the period, numerous financial analysts reiterated "Buy" or "Overweight" ratings and significantly raised their price targets for Palo Alto Networks. For instance, Wells Fargo & Company increased its price objective from $325.00 to $420.00 in July 2026, while Capital One Financial set a target price of $421.00 in July 2026. The consensus analyst rating for PANW remained a "Moderate Buy," with an average 1-year price target around $331.48 and a high target of $430.00. This widespread positive coverage and upward revisions from Wall Street contributed to the stock's appreciation.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 102.0% change in PANW stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/25/2026 was primarily driven by a 249.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7252026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 160.32 | 323.79 | 102.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 9,894 | 10,606 | 7.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.0% | 7.9% | -38.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 88.0 | 307.7 | 249.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 704 | 801 | -12.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 102.0% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/25/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PANW | 102.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.6% | 32.6% |
| Sector (XLK) | 32.3% | 38.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 75.8% change in PANW stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/25/2026 was primarily driven by a 174.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7252026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 184.20 | 323.79 | 75.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 9,556 | 10,606 | 11.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.7% | 7.9% | -32.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 112.0 | 307.7 | 174.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 679 | 801 | -15.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 75.8% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/25/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PANW | 75.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.7% | 31.6% |
| Sector (XLK) | 22.3% | 37.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 58.2% change in PANW stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/25/2026 was primarily driven by a 179.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7252026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 204.64 | 323.79 | 58.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,874 | 10,606 | 19.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.9% | 7.9% | -43.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 110.0 | 307.7 | 179.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 665 | 801 | -17.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 58.2% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/25/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PANW | 58.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.6% | 34.9% |
| Sector (XLK) | 39.5% | 39.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 153.4% change in PANW stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/25/2026 was primarily driven by a 139.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7252026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 127.75 | 323.79 | 153.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6,490 | 10,606 | 63.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.3% | 7.9% | 139.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 360.7 | 307.7 | -14.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 608 | 801 | -24.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 153.4% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/25/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PANW | 153.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 72.6% | 44.8% |
| Sector (XLK) | 106.1% | 47.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PANW Return | 57% | -25% | 111% | 23% | 1% | 77% | 450% |
| Peers Return | 60% | -39% | 66% | 22% | 19% | 27% | 197% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 97% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PANW Win Rate | 83% | 42% | 58% | 58% | 67% | 57% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 72% | 33% | 67% | 60% | 53% | 51% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PANW Max Drawdown | -20% | -35% | -20% | -30% | -27% | -27% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -20% | -47% | -24% | -27% | -28% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: FTNT, CRWD, ZS, CSCO, MSFT. See PANW Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/24/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PANW | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.7% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.6% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 93 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -12.7% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.6% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 9 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -14.5% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.0% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 14 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -19.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 96 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -46.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 87.6% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.4% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 81 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Palo Alto Networks's stock fell -25.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 34.6% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | PANW | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.7% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.6% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 93 days | 79 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -46.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 87.6% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.4% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 81 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -30.1% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.1% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 288 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -34.2% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.9% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 753 days | 62 days |
| 2013 Taper Tantrum | ||
| % Loss | -23.5% | -0.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.6% | 0.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 165 days | 1 days |
In The Past
Palo Alto Networks's stock fell -25.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 34.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Palo Alto Networks (PANW)
Palo Alto Networks (PANW) is a global leader in cybersecurity, providing comprehensive solutions to protect organizations from an evolving landscape of digital threats. The company specializes in securing networks, cloud environments, and various devices, helping businesses and governments maintain their digital integrity and operational continuity.
Its core offerings include advanced firewall appliances and software, both physical and virtual, along with Panorama, a centralized security management solution for these deployments. PANW also provides an extensive suite of subscription services encompassing threat prevention, malware and URL filtering, DNS and IoT security, data loss prevention, and protection for SaaS applications and mobile devices. Additionally, the company offers cloud security, secure access, security analytics, professional services like implementation and consulting, and educational training.
Palo Alto Networks serves a broad range of medium to large enterprises, service providers, and government entities across diverse industries worldwide. Its customer base spans sectors such as financial services, healthcare, education, energy, manufacturing, and telecommunications. The company distributes its products and services both directly and through a robust network of channel partners.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Palo Alto Networks:
- Like a Microsoft for enterprise cybersecurity.
- The Cisco of digital security infrastructure.
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Palo Alto Networks Major Products and Services
- Firewall Appliances and Software: Provides hardware appliances and software for comprehensive network security.
- Panorama: A centralized security management solution for controlling firewall deployments across various environments.
- Virtual System Upgrades: Offers extensions to increase the virtual system capacity that ships with physical firewall appliances.
- Advanced Security Subscription Services: A comprehensive suite of subscription services including threat prevention, malware protection, URL filtering, DNS security, IoT security, SaaS security, threat intelligence, and data loss prevention.
- Cloud Security Solutions: Delivers specialized security for public and private cloud environments.
- Secure Access Solutions: Ensures secure connectivity and access for users, applications, and devices.
- Security Analytics and Automation: Offers tools and platforms for analyzing security data and automating security operations.
- Cyber Security Consulting: Provides expert advice, strategic guidance, and specialized services related to cyber threats.
- Professional Services: Includes architecture design, planning, implementation, configuration, and firewall migration assistance.
- Education Services: Offers certifications, along with online and in-classroom training for cybersecurity professionals.
- Support Services: Provides ongoing technical assistance and maintenance for Palo Alto Networks products and solutions.
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Based on the provided information, Palo Alto Networks (PANW) sells its products and services primarily to other companies and organizations, rather than individuals.
The company's major customers, as described in the background, fall into the following categories:
- Medium to large enterprises
- Service providers
- Government entities
These customers operate across various industries, including education, energy, financial services, healthcare, Internet and media, manufacturing, public sector, and telecommunications.
The provided background text does not identify specific names of major customer companies or their public symbols.
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Nikesh Arora, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Nikesh Arora has served as Chairman and CEO of Palo Alto Networks since June 2018. Prior to joining Palo Alto Networks, he was a senior executive at Google from 2004 to 2014, where he held various leadership positions including senior vice president and chief business officer. He also served as the president and chief operating officer of SoftBank Group from October 2014 to June 2016. Earlier in his career, Mr. Arora founded T-Motion PLC in 2000, a mobile multimedia subsidiary of T-Mobile International, which later merged with Deutsche Telekom in 2002. He also held management positions at Fidelity Investments and Putnam Investments.
Dipak Golechha, Chief Financial Officer
Dipak Golechha joined Palo Alto Networks in 2020 and serves as Chief Financial Officer. Before his tenure at Palo Alto Networks, he was the CEO of Excelligence Learning Corporation, an education company backed by private equity. He also served as CFO for Chobani, where he was involved in structuring the company through capital raising and private equity partnerships, and as CFO at The Nature's Bounty Company, a consumer products company. Mr. Golechha spent 18 years at Procter & Gamble, holding various global finance and operations leadership roles, including global divisional CFO and chief operating officer for Pringles.
Lee Klarich, Chief Product and Technology Officer
Lee Klarich has been with Palo Alto Networks since early product inception in 2006, initially leading product management and overseeing the company's product strategy and roadmap. He became Chief Product and Technology Officer in August 2025, responsible for driving the company's technology vision and leading both the engineering and product organizations. Before joining Palo Alto Networks, Mr. Klarich was the director of product management for Juniper Networks, where he managed firewall/VPN platforms and software. His experience at Juniper Networks included working on the same product line after the acquisition of NetScreen Technologies.
Amit Singh, Chief Business Officer
Amit Singh serves as the President and Chief Business Officer at Palo Alto Networks, where he is responsible for all go-to-market functions, including sales, support, consulting, business development, partnerships, and enablement. He joined Palo Alto Networks in 2018. Prior to this, Mr. Singh held several leadership roles at Google, including founding and building Google's Cloud business and overseeing operations for Google's AR and VR efforts. He also spent 20 years at Oracle in various product, engineering, sales, and strategy roles.
Meerah Rajavel, Chief Information Officer
Meerah Rajavel is the Chief Information Officer at Palo Alto Networks, responsible for the company's global information technology functions and driving innovative solutions. She joined Palo Alto Networks in 2022. Before her current role, Ms. Rajavel served as CIO at Citrix and held leadership positions at companies such as McAfee, Forcepoint, Cisco, and Infosys.
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The key risks to Palo Alto Networks' business include intense competition within the cybersecurity market and the rapidly evolving threat landscape, challenges associated with integrating numerous acquisitions, and the need to maintain sales momentum and drive adoption of its platform solutions.
- Intense Competition and Evolving Threat Landscape: Palo Alto Networks operates in a highly competitive and dynamic cybersecurity market. The company faces significant competition from other cloud-native players, such as Wiz and Crowdstrike. The cybersecurity landscape is constantly changing, with new threats, including increasingly sophisticated AI-driven attacks, emerging regularly. The company's continued success depends on its ability to anticipate and respond to these technological changes and market developments, requiring continuous innovation and substantial investment in research and development to maintain its competitive position.
- Acquisition and Integration Risks: Palo Alto Networks has historically pursued an aggressive growth strategy that includes numerous acquisitions, having completed 21 throughout its lifecycle to expand its market share and product offerings. This strategy inherently carries risks related to the successful integration of acquired companies, their technologies, and their personnel. Failure to effectively integrate acquired businesses could lead to operational disruptions, difficulties in realizing expected synergies, and potential dilution of stockholder value. The company's recent acquisition of CyberArk has also been highlighted as presenting integration risks.
- Maintaining Sales Momentum and Platform Adoption: The company's future revenue growth is contingent on its ability to continue attracting new customers, especially large enterprises, and effectively selling its new products and subscription services. A key part of Palo Alto Networks' strategy is driving the adoption of its integrated security platform, a process referred to as "platformization." Slower conversion of these platform deals or a broader slowdown in IT security spending could modestly pressure growth in the short term. The company relies heavily on its channel partners for sales, and any issues with this distribution strategy could also negatively impact its financial results.
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Palo Alto Networks (PANW) Addressable Markets
Palo Alto Networks operates within a substantial and growing cybersecurity market, addressing various segments with its diverse product and service offerings. The addressable markets for its main products and services are primarily global, with specific regional data available for North America in some categories.
Overall Cybersecurity Market
- The total addressable market (TAM) for cybersecurity is estimated at $110 billion, with a projected growth rate of 14% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR).
- More broadly, the global cybersecurity market is projected to reach $878.48 billion by 2034 or $699.39 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 13.8% from 2026.
- Wells Fargo estimates the overall cybersecurity market that Palo Alto Networks participates in to exceed $300 billion globally.
Network Security (Strata & Prisma SASE)
- The network security total addressable market is growing at a 9% CAGR from 2021 to 2024.
- The software firewalls segment is growing at a 13% CAGR.
- The Secure Access Service Edge (SASE) segment is expanding at a remarkable 36% CAGR. The global SASE market was valued at approximately $4.94 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to $44.11 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 27.54%. Other estimates for the global SASE market include reaching $103.33 billion by 2032 with a CAGR of 11.20%, or $139.1 billion by 2034 at a CAGR of 24.5%.
- The global Next-Generation Firewall (NGFW) market size is calculated at $6.73 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to $19.47 billion by 2035, expanding at a CAGR of 11.21%.
- The global enterprise firewall market size was valued at $13.45 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach $34.43 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 11.01%. North America holds the largest share in the global enterprise firewall market.
- The global Firewall as a Service (FWaaS) market size was valued at $2.53 billion in 2022 and is expected to expand at a CAGR of 22.3% from 2023 to 2030. North America dominated this market with a 34.4% share in 2022.
Cloud Security (Prisma Cloud)
- The global cloud security market size was valued at approximately $51.11 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to $224.16 billion by 2034, registering a CAGR of 17.80%.
- Other estimates for the global cloud security market include a valuation of $40.81 billion in 2025, reaching $133.39 billion by 2035 with a CAGR of 12.57%, or an estimated size of $35.84 billion in 2024, growing to $75.26 billion by 2030 at a CAGR of 13.3%.
- North America dominated the cloud security market with a market share of 38.00% in 2025.
Security Operations (Cortex)
- Palo Alto Networks' Cortex platform targets the Security Information and Event Management (SIEM) market, estimated at $40 billion.
- The global security analytics market size was valued at $16.2 billion in 2024 and is poised to grow to $62.57 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 16.2%. North America dominated this market with a revenue share of 39.5% in 2023.
- The global security automation market size is expected to reach $21.2 billion by 2030, rising at a market growth of 13.5% CAGR. North America led this market in 2022 by generating the highest revenue share.
Threat Intelligence
- The global threat intelligence market size was estimated at $14.59 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach $36.53 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 14.7%.
- North America accounted for the largest market share of 35.1% in the global threat intelligence market in 2023.
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Palo Alto Networks (PANW) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives and market trends:
- Continued Platformization and Growth in Next-Generation Security (NGS) Offerings: Palo Alto Networks' strategy of platformization, which involves integrating its various security products into a unified platform, is a significant driver. This approach is leading to increased Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) per customer as more clients adopt the comprehensive Next-Generation Security portfolio, encompassing cloud security, SASE, and XSIAM. The company consistently emphasizes this strategy as central to its long-term growth.
- Expansion of Cloud Security Solutions, including SASE: The company is strategically focused on expanding its cloud security offerings, such as Prisma Cloud and Secure Access Service Edge (SASE). This segment has shown robust growth, with SASE ARR surpassing $1.3 billion and serving a substantial number of customers, including a third of the Fortune 500.
- Growth in Software-based Security Products: A significant portion of Palo Alto Networks' product revenue growth is being driven by the increasing adoption of its software form factors, particularly software firewalls and PAN-OS SD-WAN. This shift towards software-defined security solutions provides essential runtime protection for cloud workloads and new AI data centers.
- Leveraging Artificial Intelligence (AI) for Enhanced Security: Palo Alto Networks is actively integrating AI into its security offerings and launching new AI-driven products. Innovations like the Cortex Cloud platform, AI copilots, and the rapidly scaling Prisma AIRS platform are positioned to address evolving cyber threats and are expected to contribute to future revenue as enterprises accelerate their AI transformation.
- Strategic Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A): The company's recent and planned strategic acquisitions, such as CyberArk and Chronosphere, are expected to expand its market reach and enhance its capabilities in areas like identity security and observability. These acquisitions create cross-selling opportunities and are projected to contribute meaningfully to Next-Generation Security ARR and overall revenue growth.
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Share Repurchases
- Palo Alto Networks authorized an additional $1.0 billion for share repurchases through December 31, 2026.
- The company recently repurchased $1.0 billion of common stock, approximately 6.8 million shares, between February 20 and February 24, 2026, at an average price of $147.69 per share.
- This new authorization follows the full utilization of a prior $4.1 billion share repurchase authorization as of March 6, 2026.
Share Issuance
- Palo Alto Networks' shares outstanding increased year-over-year, with 0.709 billion shares in 2025 (a 0.2% increase from 2024), 0.708 billion shares in 2024 (a 3.42% increase from 2023), and 0.685 billion shares in 2023 (a 15.78% increase from 2022).
- Approximately 811 million shares of common stock were outstanding as of March 6, 2026.
Outbound Investments
- Palo Alto Networks acquired Chronosphere, a cloud-native observability platform, in January 2026 for $3.35 billion.
- The company announced plans to acquire Koi in February 2026 to enhance AI-driven enterprise endpoint security solutions.
- Palo Alto Networks also acquired CyberArk, with some reports indicating a $25 billion purchase expected to close in the second half of fiscal 2026, which is integrated into recent guidance.
Capital Expenditures
- Palo Alto Networks' annual capital expenditures for 2025 were $246.2 million, a 57.02% increase from the previous year.
- Annual capital expenditures were $156.8 million in 2024 and $146.3 million in 2023.
- The trailing twelve months (TTM) annual capital expenditures were $408.6 million.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 167.82 |
| Mkt Cap | 186.0 |
| Rev LTM | 8,858 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,615 |
| FCF LTM | 3,115 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,667 |
| CFO LTM | 3,511 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,961 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 18.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 16.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 22.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 15.9% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 17.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 16.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 37.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 37.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 28.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 27.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 186.0 |
| P/S | 9.0 |
| P/Op Inc | 25.2 |
| P/EBIT | 37.6 |
| P/E | 30.2 |
| P/CFO | 30.1 |
| Total Yield | 1.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.6% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 8.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 46.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 58.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 51.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 114.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 42.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 51.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 35.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 52.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $323.79 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 259.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/20/2012 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -9.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $294.48 | $210.92 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 10.0% | 53.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 54.2% | 41.7% |
| Downside Capture | 85.79 | 128.38 |
| Upside Capture | 355.23 | 160.30 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 38.2% | 36.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.60 | 1.47 | 1.12 | 1.08 | 1.13 | 1.22 |
| Up Beta | 3.07 | 1.42 | 0.59 | 1.04 | 1.15 | 1.26 |
| Down Beta | -0.40 | 0.21 | -0.32 | 0.53 | 0.60 | 1.21 |
| Up Capture | 353% | 517% | 389% | 231% | 195% | 207% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 27 | 42 | 71 | 139 | 420 |
| Down Capture | 80% | 4% | 62% | 72% | 111% | 103% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 14 | 21 | 53 | 110 | 328 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PANW | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PANW | 62.8% | 41.6% | 1.27 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 35.9% | 24.8% | 1.19 | 39.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 17.6% | 12.7% | 1.00 | 36.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.2% | 28.1% | 0.61 | 3.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 34.7% | 19.1% | 1.42 | 0.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.8% | 14.1% | 0.69 | 2.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -46.2% | 42.9% | -1.32 | 31.6% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PANW | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PANW | 37.4% | 42.3% | 0.88 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 19.4% | 25.6% | 0.68 | 51.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.58 | 48.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.0% | 18.4% | 0.75 | 2.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.6% | 19.5% | 0.38 | 8.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.0% | 18.9% | 0.06 | 24.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 15.3% | 53.4% | 0.47 | 23.4% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PANW | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PANW | 31.3% | 38.9% | 0.83 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 24.1% | 24.8% | 0.88 | 51.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 48.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.3% | 16.1% | 0.57 | 3.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.2% | 17.9% | 0.32 | 14.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 27.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.1% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 15.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 7/7/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 6/2/2026 | -5.6% | -12.3% | 17.1% |
| 2/17/2026 | -6.8% | -13.4% | 3.3% |
| 11/19/2025 | -7.4% | -7.3% | -5.2% |
| 8/18/2025 | 3.1% | 4.8% | 15.3% |
| 5/20/2025 | -6.8% | -3.4% | 2.4% |
| 2/13/2025 | -0.9% | -5.4% | -8.4% |
| 11/20/2024 | 1.2% | -2.2% | -4.9% |
| 8/19/2024 | 7.2% | 1.1% | -4.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 14 | 15 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 7.4% | 10.2% | 14.4% |
| Median Negative | -5.5% | -5.1% | -5.2% |
| Max Positive | 18.6% | 23.1% | 28.6% |
| Max Negative | -28.4% | -14.0% | -23.0% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 6/2/2026 | -5.6% | -12.3% | 17.1% |
| 2/17/2026 | -6.8% | -13.4% | 3.3% |
| 11/19/2025 | -7.4% | -7.3% | -5.2% |
| 8/18/2025 | 3.1% | 4.8% | 15.3% |
| 5/20/2025 | -6.8% | -3.4% | 2.4% |
| 2/13/2025 | -0.9% | -5.4% | -8.4% |
| 11/20/2024 | 1.2% | -2.2% | -4.9% |
| 8/19/2024 | 7.2% | 1.1% | -4.0% |
| 5/20/2024 | -3.7% | -4.9% | -3.9% |
| 2/20/2024 | -28.4% | -14.0% | -23.0% |
| 11/15/2023 | -5.4% | 2.7% | 20.0% |
| 8/18/2023 | 14.8% | 10.0% | 12.6% |
| 5/23/2023 | 7.7% | 12.5% | 28.6% |
| 2/21/2023 | 12.5% | 12.9% | 14.4% |
| 11/17/2022 | 7.0% | 10.4% | -3.9% |
| 8/22/2022 | 12.1% | 10.0% | 1.0% |
| 5/19/2022 | 9.7% | 15.1% | 14.4% |
| 2/22/2022 | 0.4% | 21.3% | 27.0% |
| 11/18/2021 | 2.0% | 2.5% | 1.8% |
| 8/23/2021 | 18.6% | 23.1% | 27.8% |
| 5/20/2021 | 5.8% | 7.2% | 8.3% |
| 2/22/2021 | -1.7% | -4.4% | -15.8% |
| 11/16/2020 | 7.7% | 12.9% | 22.7% |
| 8/24/2020 | -2.3% | -3.6% | -10.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 14 | 15 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 7.4% | 10.2% | 14.4% |
| Median Negative | -5.5% | -5.1% | -5.2% |
| Max Positive | 18.6% | 23.1% | 28.6% |
| Max Negative | -28.4% | -14.0% | -23.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 04/30/2026 | 06/03/2026 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2026 | 02/18/2026 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2025 | 11/20/2025 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2025 | 08/29/2025 | 10-K |
| 04/30/2025 | 05/21/2025 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2025 | 02/14/2025 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2024 | 11/21/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 09/06/2024 | 10-K |
| 04/30/2024 | 05/21/2024 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2024 | 02/21/2024 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2023 | 11/17/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 09/01/2023 | 10-K |
| 04/30/2023 | 05/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2023 | 02/22/2023 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2022 | 11/18/2022 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2022 | 09/06/2022 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 04/30/2026 | 06/03/2026 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2026 | 02/18/2026 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2025 | 11/20/2025 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2025 | 08/29/2025 | 10-K |
| 04/30/2025 | 05/21/2025 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2025 | 02/14/2025 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2024 | 11/21/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 09/06/2024 | 10-K |
| 04/30/2024 | 05/21/2024 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2024 | 02/21/2024 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2023 | 11/17/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 09/01/2023 | 10-K |
| 04/30/2023 | 05/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2023 | 02/22/2023 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2022 | 11/18/2022 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2022 | 09/06/2022 | 10-K |
| 04/30/2022 | 05/20/2022 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2022 | 02/23/2022 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2021 | 11/19/2021 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2021 | 09/03/2021 | 10-K |
| 04/30/2021 | 05/21/2021 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2021 | 02/23/2021 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2020 | 11/19/2020 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2020 | 09/04/2020 | 10-K |
| 04/30/2020 | 05/22/2020 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2020 | 02/25/2020 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2019 | 11/26/2019 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2019 | 09/09/2019 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/8/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 6/2/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 Next-Generation Security ARR | 8.90 Bil | 8.93 Bil | 8.95 Bil | 12.3% | Higher New | Guidance: 7.95 Bil for Q3 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Remaining performance obligation | 20.90 Bil | 20.95 Bil | 21.00 Bil | 17.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 17.90 Bil for Q3 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Revenue | 3.35 Bil | 3.35 Bil | 3.35 Bil | 13.8% | Higher New | Guidance: 2.94 Bil for Q3 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Diluted non-GAAP net income per share | 0.96 | 0.97 | 0.98 | 22.8% | Higher New | Guidance: 0.79 for Q3 2026 | |
| 2026 Next-Generation Security ARR | 8.90 Bil | 8.93 Bil | 8.95 Bil | 4.1% | Raised | Guidance: 8.57 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Remaining performance obligation | 20.90 Bil | 20.95 Bil | 21.00 Bil | 3.5% | Raised | Guidance: 20.25 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue | 11.41 Bil | 11.42 Bil | 11.43 Bil | 1.1% | Raised | Guidance: 11.29 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP operating margin | 28.9% | 29.05% | 29.2% | 0.3% | Raised | Guidance: 28.75% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Diluted non-GAAP net income per share | 3.77 | 3.78 | 3.79 | 2.9% | Raised | Guidance: 3.67 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted free cash flow margin | 37.5% | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 37.0% for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 2/17/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Next-Generation Security ARR | 7.94 Bil | 7.95 Bil | 7.96 Bil | ||||
| Q3 2026 Remaining performance obligation | 17.85 Bil | 17.90 Bil | 17.95 Bil | ||||
| Q3 2026 Revenue | 2.94 Bil | 2.94 Bil | 2.94 Bil | ||||
| Q3 2026 EPS | 0.78 | 0.79 | 0.8 | ||||
| 2026 Next-Generation Security ARR | 8.52 Bil | 8.57 Bil | 8.62 Bil | 21.6% | Raised | Guidance: 7.05 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Remaining performance obligation | 20.20 Bil | 20.25 Bil | 20.30 Bil | 8.6% | Raised | Guidance: 18.65 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue | 11.28 Bil | 11.29 Bil | 11.31 Bil | 7.4% | Raised | Guidance: 10.52 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Operating Margin | 28.5% | 28.75% | 29.0% | -1.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 29.75% for 2026 | |
| 2026 EPS | 3.65 | 3.67 | 3.7 | -4.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 3.85 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted free cash flow margin | 37.0% | -1.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 38.5% for 2026 | |||
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 11/19/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Next-Generation Security ARR | 6.11 Bil | 6.12 Bil | 6.14 Bil | ||||
| Q2 2026 Remaining performance obligation | 15.75 Bil | 15.80 Bil | 15.85 Bil | ||||
| Q2 2026 Revenue | 2.57 Bil | 2.58 Bil | 2.59 Bil | ||||
| Q2 2026 EPS | 0.93 | 0.94 | 0.95 | ||||
| 2026 Next-Generation Security ARR | 7.00 Bil | 7.05 Bil | 7.10 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 7.05 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Remaining performance obligation | 18.60 Bil | 18.65 Bil | 18.70 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 18.65 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue | 10.50 Bil | 10.52 Bil | 10.54 Bil | 0.2% | Raised | Guidance: 10.50 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Operating Margin | 29.5% | 29.75% | 30.0% | 0.3% | Raised | Guidance: 29.45% for 2026 | |
| 2026 EPS | 3.8 | 3.85 | 3.9 | 1.3% | Raised | Guidance: 3.8 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | 0.38 | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.39 for 2026 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 7/8/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thorning-Schmidt, Helle | Direct | Sell | 7082026 | 346.85 | 700 | 242,795 | 2,045,721 | Form | |
| 2 | Paul, Josh D | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 7012026 | 345.00 | 900 | 310,500 | 27,477,180 | Form |
| 3 | Bawa, Aparna | See footnote | Sell | 7012026 | 348.74 | 290 | 101,135 | 2,244,839 | Form | |
| 4 | Bawa, Aparna | See footnote | Sell | 7012026 | 318.67 | 632 | 201,397 | 2,143,668 | Form | |
| 5 | Golechha, Dipak | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6242026 | 289.56 | 5,000 | 1,447,825 | 42,059,310 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thorning-Schmidt, Helle | Direct | Sell | 7082026 | 346.85 | 700 | 242,795 | 2,045,721 | Form | |
| 2 | Paul, Josh D | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 7012026 | 345.00 | 900 | 310,500 | 27,477,180 | Form |
| 3 | Bawa, Aparna | See footnote | Sell | 7012026 | 348.74 | 290 | 101,135 | 2,244,839 | Form | |
| 4 | Bawa, Aparna | See footnote | Sell | 7012026 | 318.67 | 632 | 201,397 | 2,143,668 | Form | |
| 5 | Golechha, Dipak | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6242026 | 289.56 | 5,000 | 1,447,825 | 42,059,310 | Form |
| 6 | Bawa, Aparna | See footnote | Sell | 6222026 | 290.17 | 345 | 100,109 | 2,135,368 | Form | |
| 7 | Goetz, James J | family trust | Sell | 6162026 | 279.90 | 20,000 | 5,597,911 | 5,597,911 | Form | |
| 8 | Bawa, Aparna | See footnote | Sell | 6122026 | 280.00 | 536 | 150,080 | 2,157,120 | Form | |
| 9 | Key, John P | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 279.24 | 7,500 | 2,094,300 | 3,490,500 | Form | |
| 10 | Bawa, Aparna | See footnote | Sell | 6122026 | 270.00 | 555 | 149,850 | 2,224,800 | Form | |
| 11 | Bawa, Aparna | See footnote | Sell | 6122026 | 265.00 | 377 | 99,905 | 2,330,675 | Form | |
| 12 | Paul, Josh D | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 6022026 | 285.08 | 1,100 | 313,588 | 23,272,791 | Form |
| 13 | Klarich, Lee | EVP Chief Product & Tech Ofcr | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 258.65 | 62,904 | 16,270,352 | 61,037,874 | Form |
| 14 | Paul, Josh D | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 5222026 | 236.95 | 400 | 94,780 | 19,604,295 | Form |
| 15 | Key, John P | Direct | Sell | 4102026 | 173.32 | 1,572 | 272,459 | 3,466,400 | Form | |
| 16 | Paul, Josh D | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 4032026 | 161.40 | 1,100 | 177,540 | 13,418,150 | Form |
| 17 | Golechha, Dipak | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 4032026 | 160.42 | 5,000 | 802,077 | 24,102,405 | Form |
| 18 | Arora, Nikesh | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 3272026 | 146.87 | 68,085 | 9,999,977 | 50,435,956 | Form |
| 19 | Goetz, James J | family trust | Sell | 3102026 | 164.41 | 22,684 | 3,729,511 | 8,631,605 | Form | |
| 20 | Paul, Josh D | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 147.90 | 1,700 | 251,430 | 8,698,591 | Form |
| 21 | Klarich, Lee | EVP Chief Product & Tech Ofcr | Direct | Sell | 1122026 | 191.03 | 120,768 | 23,070,681 | 57,097,299 | Form |
| 22 | Jenkins, William D JR | President | Direct | Sell | 1062026 | 184.81 | 904 | 167,068 | 27,391,984 | Form |
| 23 | Paul, Josh D | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 1062026 | 184.81 | 800 | 147,848 | 8,502,184 | Form |
| 24 | Jenkins, William D JR | President | Direct | Sell | 12292025 | 188.07 | 6,218 | 1,169,423 | 28,045,286 | Form |
| 25 | Golechha, Dipak | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 12292025 | 188.18 | 5,000 | 940,910 | 29,190,604 | Form |
| 26 | Goetz, James J | The Goetz Children's Trust 4/24/1998 | Sell | 12102025 | 195.07 | 12,500 | 2,438,355 | 12,227,668 | Form | |
| 27 | Goetz, James J | The Goetz Children's Trust 4/24/1998 | Sell | 12102025 | 195.33 | 12,500 | 2,441,687 | 14,686,066 | Form | |
| 28 | Klarich, Lee | EVP Chief Product & Tech Ofcr | Direct | Sell | 12042025 | 191.91 | 120,774 | 23,177,226 | 62,876,962 | Form |
| 29 | Paul, Josh D | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 12022025 | 189.39 | 700 | 132,573 | 8,864,399 | Form |
| 30 | Paul, Josh D | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 11042025 | 219.97 | 700 | 153,979 | 10,449,675 | Form |
| 31 | Klarich, Lee | EVP Chief Product & Tech Ofcr | Direct | Sell | 11042025 | 217.94 | 120,774 | 26,321,980 | 77,677,236 | Form |
| 32 | Klarich, Lee | EVP Chief Product & Tech Ofcr | Direct | Sell | 10072025 | 211.92 | 120,774 | 25,594,749 | 31,616,744 | Form |
| 33 | Paul, Josh D | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 10022025 | 202.16 | 700 | 141,512 | 6,564,944 | Form |
| 34 | Arora, Nikesh | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 9242025 | 204.06 | 846,408 | 172,721,695 | 56,120,348 | Form |
| 35 | Golechha, Dipak | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 9242025 | 204.19 | 5,000 | 1,020,942 | 19,629,653 | Form |
| 36 | Klarich, Lee | EVP Chief Product & Tech Ofcr | Direct | Sell | 9052025 | 191.11 | 120,774 | 23,081,151 | 34,008,835 | Form |
| 37 | Paul, Josh D | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 9032025 | 187.62 | 700 | 131,334 | 6,592,592 | Form |
| 38 | Paul, Josh D | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 8222025 | 184.20 | 700 | 128,940 | 6,948,577 | Form |
| 39 | Klarich, Lee | EVP, Chief Product Officer | Direct | Sell | 8052025 | 171.58 | 120,774 | 20,722,617 | 35,469,040 | Form |
| 40 | Zuk, Nir | EVP, Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 8052025 | 172.80 | 100,000 | 17,280,450 | 543,213,706 | Form |
| 41 | Klarich, Lee | EVP, Chief Product Officer | Direct | Sell | 7092025 | 200.86 | 120,774 | 24,258,176 | 47,297,960 | Form |
| 42 | Bawa, Aparna | Direct | Sell | 7092025 | 190.00 | 526 | 99,940 | 1,640,080 | Form | |
| 43 | Paul, Josh D | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 7032025 | 204.00 | 600 | 122,400 | 8,452,332 | Form |
| 44 | Zuk, Nir | EVP, Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 7032025 | 198.66 | 100,000 | 19,866,061 | 644,358,876 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Jul 26, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soma Equity Partners LP | $74.2 Mil | 5.5% | 20 | New | 13F |
| Cadian Capital Management, LP | $44.0 Mil | 5.4% | 23 | New | 13F |
| Anomaly Capital Management, LP | $85.0 Mil | 5.1% | 21 | TRIM -23.2% | 13F |
| Stony Point Capital LLC | $57.5 Mil | 4.7% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Alta Park Capital, LP | $25.7 Mil | 4.1% | 24 | ADD +12.2% | 13F |
| MayTech Global Investments, LLC | $31.6 Mil | 3.9% | 23 | Hold | 13F |
| Triodos Investment Management BV | $45.3 Mil | 3.4% | 49 | ADD +28.6% | 13F |
| Randolph Co Inc | $31.6 Mil | 3.0% | 43 | ADD +133.6% | 13F |
| Mirova US LLC | $256.9 Mil | 2.9% | 42 | Hold | 13F |
| Oribel Capital Management, LP | $16.9 Mil | 2.6% | 41 | Hold | 13F |
| Ithaka Group LLC | $11.4 Mil | 2.4% | 38 | Hold | 13F |
| Jia Investment Alliance PTE. LTD. | $21.7 Mil | 2.3% | 24 | Hold | 13F |
| Bender Robert & Associates | $8.8 Mil | 2.1% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Crosslink Capital Inc | $15.7 Mil | 1.5% | 21 | TRIM -25.3% | 13F |
| Harvey Partners, LLC | $14.6 Mil | 1.2% | 45 | New | 13F |
| M.D. Sass, LLC | $8.1 Mil | 0.6% | 36 | ADD +39.4% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soma Equity Partners LP | $74.2 Mil | 5.5% | 20 | New | 13F |
| Cadian Capital Management, LP | $44.0 Mil | 5.4% | 23 | New | 13F |
| Harvey Partners, LLC | $14.6 Mil | 1.2% | 45 | New | 13F |
| Randolph Co Inc | $31.6 Mil | 3.0% | 43 | ADD +133.6% | 13F |
| M.D. Sass, LLC | $8.1 Mil | 0.6% | 36 | ADD +39.4% | 13F |
| Triodos Investment Management BV | $45.3 Mil | 3.4% | 49 | ADD +28.6% | 13F |
| Alta Park Capital, LP | $25.7 Mil | 4.1% | 24 | ADD +12.2% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anatole Investment Management Ltd | $31.0 Mil | 5.2% | 15 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Archon Partners LLC | $9.9 Mil | 1.0% | 42 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Napean Trading & Investment Co (Singapore) PTE Ltd | $6.6 Mil | 1.3% | 37 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Crosslink Capital Inc | $15.7 Mil | 1.5% | 21 | TRIM -25.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Anomaly Capital Management, LP | $85.0 Mil | 5.1% | 21 | TRIM -23.2% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mirova US LLC | $256.9 Mil | 2.9% | 42 | Hold | 13F |
| Anomaly Capital Management, LP | $85.0 Mil | 5.1% | 21 | TRIM -23.2% | 13F |
| Soma Equity Partners LP | $74.2 Mil | 5.5% | 20 | New | 13F |
| Stony Point Capital LLC | $57.5 Mil | 4.7% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Triodos Investment Management BV | $45.3 Mil | 3.4% | 49 | ADD +28.6% | 13F |
| Cadian Capital Management, LP | $44.0 Mil | 5.4% | 23 | New | 13F |
| MayTech Global Investments, LLC | $31.6 Mil | 3.9% | 23 | Hold | 13F |
| Randolph Co Inc | $31.6 Mil | 3.0% | 43 | ADD +133.6% | 13F |
| Alta Park Capital, LP | $25.7 Mil | 4.1% | 24 | ADD +12.2% | 13F |
| Jia Investment Alliance PTE. LTD. | $21.7 Mil | 2.3% | 24 | Hold | 13F |
| Oribel Capital Management, LP | $16.9 Mil | 2.6% | 41 | Hold | 13F |
| Crosslink Capital Inc | $15.7 Mil | 1.5% | 21 | TRIM -25.3% | 13F |
| Harvey Partners, LLC | $14.6 Mil | 1.2% | 45 | New | 13F |
| Ithaka Group LLC | $11.4 Mil | 2.4% | 38 | Hold | 13F |
| Bender Robert & Associates | $8.8 Mil | 2.1% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| M.D. Sass, LLC | $8.1 Mil | 0.6% | 36 | ADD +39.4% | 13F |
PANW Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is constructive as Palo Alto Networks is capitalizing on a structural AI-driven security demand cycle. Its platform strategy is driving accelerating revenue and a backlog of $18.4 billion. While large acquisitions create near-term integration risks and margin pressure, management has provided a clear 12-18 month timeline for resolving these challenges.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Recurring Revenue Platform(Number of Customers) x (Number of Platforms/Modules per Customer) x (Average Revenue per Module) Increasing the number of high-margin software subscriptions per customer ('platformization') and achieving operating leverage as the business scales.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests yes, as AI-driven threats force enterprises to abandon point products for integrated platforms.
- Next-Generation Security ARR reached $8.13 billion, growing 60% year-over-year.
- Remaining Performance Obligations (future contracted revenue) hit $18.4 billion, up 36%.
- Company guidance for next quarter's revenue growth is 32%, an acceleration.
- The company secured 110 net new customer platformizations in the last quarter.
- Management raised full-year 2026 guidance across all metrics.
PRIMARY RISK
Simultaneously integrating large acquisitions like CyberArk creates significant operational risk, pressuring margins and diluting shareholders with stock-based compensation now at 17% of revenue.
- Stock-based compensation rose to 17% of revenue in the most recent quarter.
- Latest-quarter gross margin declined 5.4 percentage points year-over-year.
- Trailing-twelve-month operating margin is 9.6%, down from 11.1% a year prior.
- The CEO described the CyberArk integration as 'existential' to the company.
- Basic share count has increased by 31.8% over the last three years.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Next-Generation Security (NGS) Annualized Recurring Revenue (ARR) | $8.13 billion for Q3 FY2026 - Stable | The headline growth rate is dominated by large-scale M&A. The stable organic growth rate of 28% demonstrates the core business continues to perform consistently, even as the company integrates major new platforms. Management highlights strong traction in specific products, with XSIAM ARR growing 100% year-over-year to over $600 million. |
| Remaining Performance Obligation (RPO) | $18.4 billion for Q3 FY2026 - Stable | The large RPO balance provides significant future revenue visibility. The organic growth of 22% suggests a solid and stable demand environment for long-term contracts, consistent with the company's platformization strategy which encourages deeper customer commitments. |
| Platformized Customers | Roughly 2,280 (Q3 FY2026) | Market rewards The company has a stated goal of surpassing 4,000 platformizations by fiscal 2030.. The number of customers who have made deep architectural commitments by standardizing their infrastructure on Palo Alto Networks' platforms. This signals successful execution of the company's core strategy and is correlated with higher retention and expansion. |
Platform Momentum vs. Integration Drag
BULL VIEW
The AI-driven demand for unified security is a powerful tailwind, making the platform strategy inevitable and allowing the company to grow through any short-term integration challenges.
CORE TENSION
Can accelerating organic bookings and $18.4 billion in future contracts offset near-term margin pressure from acquisitions, which prompted a -7.0% post-earnings stock reaction?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bull case, as management raised full-year guidance for revenue, bookings, and cash flow, signaling confidence in navigating the integration process.
BEAR VIEW
The complexity of integrating multiple large acquisitions simultaneously will lead to execution fumbles, continued margin pressure, and value destruction for shareholders via dilution.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
8/25/2026 | Peer Earnings Reset High Expectations Watch: Commentary on growth, competition, or macro from CRWD or ZS that could negatively impact cybersecurity sector sentiment. |
8/31/2026 | Zscaler Earnings Report Watch: Peer Zscaler (ZS) is scheduled to report earnings. |
Q3 2026 | Sovereign Cortex Launch Watch: The initial release of the Sovereign Cortex with T Security solution is planned. |
10/27/2026 | Microsoft Earnings Report Watch: Peer Microsoft (MSFT) is scheduled to report earnings. |
11/17/2026 | M&A Integration Execution Scrutinized Watch: Any revision to the accelerated synergy timeline or further margin pressure attributed to integration challenges in the Q4 report. |
11/17/2026 | Extreme Volatility Priced by Options Watch: The stock's reaction to the next earnings report. High implied volatility suggests even a minor deviation from expectations could trigger an outsized move. |
December 31, 2026 | Share Repurchase Expiration Watch: The company's share repurchase authorization will expire. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-07-21 | Embrace Acquisition Announced Details: The company announced its intent to acquire Embrace to add Real User Monitoring (RUM) capabilities to its observability platform. | -1.9% $348.66 -> $342.15 |
2026-06-02 | Record Q3 Results and Raised Guidance Details: The company reported Q3 revenue growth of 31% to $3.0 billion and raised its full-year fiscal 2026 guidance across all metrics. | -6.7% $300.48 -> $280.43 |
2026-05-14 | Idira Identity Platform Launched Details: Following the CyberArk acquisition, the company launched Idira, its new unified identity security platform initiative, advancing its AI-driven identity strategy. | +6.6% $227.79 -> $242.83 |
2026-04-30 | Portkey Acquisition Announced Details: The company announced its intent to acquire Portkey, a pioneer in AI Gateways, to secure the rise of autonomous AI agents. | -0.3% $181.54 -> $181.08 |
2026-03-31 | CEO Frames AI Security Strategy Details: The CEO published an op-ed arguing that "AI must fight AI," framing the company's strategic response to the rise of AI-powered cyberattacks. | +4.1% $154.35 -> $160.67 |
2026-02-17 | Q2 Results Beat, Guidance Disappoints Details: The company reported fiscal Q2 results that topped estimates but issued profit guidance for the next quarter that was below expectations, causing shares to fall. | -8.7% $166.95 -> $152.35 |
2026-01-29 | Chronosphere Acquisition Completed Details: The company completed its acquisition of Chronosphere, a move to unify observability and security for the AI era. | -3.7% $183.74 -> $176.97 |
Position Sizing
2% - 4%
REDUCED POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: PANW trades at roughly 62% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 15% for the S&P 500 (4.2x the market), around the 100th percentile of its own trailing year. A 2% - 4% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
FTNT - Fortinet, Inc.
Profitability & Value FocusFortinet offers a more mature financial profile with a significantly higher trailing-twelve-month operating margin of 31.1% versus Palo Alto Networks' 9.6%.
CRWD - CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.
Pure-Play Cloud & AI SecurityCrowdStrike is a cloud-native leader in endpoint security and has established itself as the security choice for leading AI labs like Anthropic and OpenAI.
Palo Alto Networks is an AI-era utility, providing the essential security infrastructure that enables enterprises to adopt transformative technologies like AI safely.
The company is successfully executing a 'platformization' strategy, consolidating the fragmented cybersecurity market onto its integrated platforms. The emergence of sophisticated, AI-driven cyber threats (the 'Mythos' moment) is acting as a powerful catalyst, increasing customer urgency to adopt a unified security architecture. This positions PANW not as a victim of AI disruption, but as a primary beneficiary, selling the critical infrastructure for the AI revolution.
Continued acceleration in NGS ARR and RPO growth, an increasing number of large, multi-platform deals (platformizations), and market share gains in key growth areas like SASE and XSIAM.
A slowdown in platformization deals, customers choosing best-of-breed point products over PANW's platform, or significant execution stumbles in integrating large acquisitions like CyberArk and Chronosphere.
Quarter-to-quarter fluctuations in hardware revenue, which is becoming a smaller part of the business and can be affected by seasonal spending patterns.
Repricing Catalyst
The market's growing recognition that the rise of AI-powered cyberattacks is a structural tailwind for cybersecurity spending, increasing the 'terminal value of the entire cybersecurity industry' and validating PANW's AI-centric platform strategy.
Product
$2.0B TTM (20% of Total)What It Is
This segment sells hardware and software to enterprises, service providers, and government entities. Products include ML-Powered Next-Generation Firewall (NGFW) hardware appliances and software licenses for virtual firewalls (VM-Series), container firewalls (CN-Series), SD-WAN, and the Panorama management solution. Following the CyberArk acquisition, it also includes on-premise software licenses for identity security offerings.
Who Pays & How
Enterprises, service providers, and government entities pay for these products to secure their on-premise environments (like data centers and campuses) and cloud networks. They choose these products for their AI-powered threat prevention capabilities and to establish a consistent security policy across their infrastructure.
Competition
Subscription and support
$5.3B TTM (54% of Total)What It Is
This segment sells a broad range of recurring services to its customer base. Subscriptions provide capabilities like threat prevention, SASE (Prisma Access), cloud security (Cortex Cloud), security operations (Cortex XSIAM, XDR), observability (Chronosphere), and identity security (Idira). Support services provide ongoing security updates, upgrades, bug fixes, and repairs for hardware and software products.
Who Pays & How
Existing and new customers pay for these services to gain access to the latest security capabilities in near real-time and to maintain the effectiveness of their purchased products. They choose these subscriptions to consolidate security functions, automate security operations, and secure hybrid workforces and cloud environments.
Competition
Palo Alto Networks — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Information Technology Resources |
| TechCrunch |
| Wired |
| CIO |
| MIT Technology Review |
| Gartner Insights |
| Ars Technica |
| Systems Software Resources |
| CNET |
| ZDNet |
| Gartner |
| Software Development Times |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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