Cisco Systems (CSCO)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $77.89 | Market Cap: $308.5 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Communications Equipment
Cisco Systems (CSCO)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $77.89Market Cap: $308.5 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Communications Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.0%, Dividend Yield is 2.3% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.8%, Dist 3Y High is -0.8% | |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 22% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, CFO LTM is 14 Bil, FCF LTM is 13 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cybersecurity, Cloud Computing, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.0%, Dividend Yield is 2.3% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 22% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, CFO LTM is 14 Bil, FCF LTM is 13 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cybersecurity, Cloud Computing, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.8%, Dist 3Y High is -0.8% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CSCO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the 13.2% stock movement for Cisco Systems (CSCO) from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025:
1. Strong Q1 Fiscal Year 2026 Earnings.
Cisco reported higher-than-expected revenue and adjusted profit for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, announced around November 12, 2025. Adjusted earnings rose to $1.00 per share, exceeding estimates, while revenue increased to $14.9 billion, also surpassing expectations.
2. Robust Demand for AI Infrastructure.
The company experienced significant demand for its artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure products and solutions, particularly from hyperscalers. AI orders from hyperscalers accelerated to $1.3 billion in Q1 FY26, with Cisco projecting at least $4.2 billion in AI orders from hyperscalers for fiscal year 2026.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CSCO Return | -3% | 46% | -22% | 9% | 21% | 35% | 94% |
| Peers Return | 24% | 44% | -23% | 81% | 56% | 23% | 375% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CSCO Win Rate | 42% | 75% | 33% | 58% | 67% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 58% | 28% | 50% | 55% | 67% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CSCO Max Drawdown | -30% | -1% | -36% | -3% | -9% | -9% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -29% | -4% | -35% | -5% | -4% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ANET, VRT, NTAP, FIEE, CSCO. See CSCO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CSCO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -38.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 856 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -33.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 375 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -25.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 624 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 150.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2906 days | 1480 days |
Compare to ANET, VRT, NTAP, FIEE, CSCO
In The Past
Cisco Systems's stock fell -38.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/29/2021. A -38.6% loss requires a 62.9% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CSCO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| 09302022 | CSCO | Cisco Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 33.0% | 38.8% | -0.9% |
| 10312020 | CSCO | Cisco Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 44.0% | 60.5% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| 09302022 | CSCO | Cisco Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 33.0% | 38.8% | -0.9% |
| 10312020 | CSCO | Cisco Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 44.0% | 60.5% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Cisco Systems
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 115.99 |
| Mkt Cap | 115.7 |
| Rev LTM | 8,448 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,748 |
| FCF LTM | 1,658 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,380 |
| CFO LTM | 1,838 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,563 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 17.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 6.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 21.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 20.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 25.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 24.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 23.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 115.7 |
| P/S | 5.4 |
| P/EBIT | 29.7 |
| P/E | 40.8 |
| P/CFO | 28.2 |
| Total Yield | 4.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.8% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 28.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 27.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 189.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -7.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 13.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 16.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 106.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 9032025 | 10-K 7/26/2025 |
| 4302025 | 5202025 | 10-Q 4/26/2025 |
| 1312025 | 2182025 | 10-Q 1/25/2025 |
| 10312024 | 11192024 | 10-Q 10/26/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9052024 | 10-K 7/27/2024 |
| 4302024 | 5212024 | 10-Q 4/27/2024 |
| 1312024 | 2202024 | 10-Q 1/27/2024 |
| 10312023 | 11212023 | 10-Q 10/28/2023 |
| 7312023 | 9072023 | 10-K 7/29/2023 |
| 4302023 | 5242023 | 10-Q 4/29/2023 |
| 1312023 | 2212023 | 10-Q 1/28/2023 |
| 10312022 | 11222022 | 10-Q 10/29/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9082022 | 10-K 7/30/2022 |
| 4302022 | 5252022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 2222022 | 10-Q 1/29/2022 |
| 10312021 | 11232021 | 10-Q 10/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
