DexCom (DXCM)
Market Price (8/4/2026): $87.4 | Market Cap: $33.4 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Equipment
DexCom (DXCM)
Market Price (8/4/2026): $87.4Market Cap: $33.4 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Equipment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 23% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.8 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Diabetes Management, Wearable Health Devices, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0% Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -9.7%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -100% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 26x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 33x Key risksDXCM key risks include [1] heightened regulatory scrutiny, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 23% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.8 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Diabetes Management, Wearable Health Devices, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -9.7%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -100% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 26x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 33x |
| Key risksDXCM key risks include [1] heightened regulatory scrutiny, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
DexCom (DXCM) stock has gained about 45% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. DexCom reported exceptional financial performance in fiscal Q2 2026 and provided an upbeat outlook.
The company surpassed analyst expectations, reporting an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.70 for fiscal Q2 2026 (ending June 2026), exceeding the consensus estimate of $0.61 by 14.8%. Quarterly revenue reached $1.31 billion, a 13.1% increase year-over-year, beating estimates of $1.29 billion. Following these strong results, DexCom raised its full-year fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $5.18 billion to $5.25 billion, representing 11%-13% growth, and increased its operating margin guidance to 23.5%-24%.
2. Expanded market access for Type 2 non-insulin patients was driven by positive clinical trial results.
DexCom secured coverage for over 7 million Type 2 non-insulin patients across the four largest commercial Pharmacy Benefit Managers (PBMs). This expansion was significantly bolstered by compelling clinical evidence from the CONNECT trial, which demonstrated a 0.9% A1c improvement over the control group for Type 2 non-insulin patients utilizing DexCom's continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) system, alongside a 97% median CGM usage rate.
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DexCom (DXCM) stock has gained about 45% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. DexCom reported exceptional financial performance in fiscal Q2 2026 and provided an upbeat outlook.
The company surpassed analyst expectations, reporting an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.70 for fiscal Q2 2026 (ending June 2026), exceeding the consensus estimate of $0.61 by 14.8%. Quarterly revenue reached $1.31 billion, a 13.1% increase year-over-year, beating estimates of $1.29 billion. Following these strong results, DexCom raised its full-year fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $5.18 billion to $5.25 billion, representing 11%-13% growth, and increased its operating margin guidance to 23.5%-24%.
2. Expanded market access for Type 2 non-insulin patients was driven by positive clinical trial results.
DexCom secured coverage for over 7 million Type 2 non-insulin patients across the four largest commercial Pharmacy Benefit Managers (PBMs). This expansion was significantly bolstered by compelling clinical evidence from the CONNECT trial, which demonstrated a 0.9% A1c improvement over the control group for Type 2 non-insulin patients utilizing DexCom's continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) system, alongside a 97% median CGM usage rate.
3. Strategic product innovation and key regulatory milestones broadened DexCom’s market potential.
In May 2026, DexCom unveiled its next-generation Dexcom G8 CGM system, which is half the size of its G7 predecessor and sets a new 15-day wear standard. The G7 15-day system also received regulatory clearance from Health Canada in fiscal Q3 2026, marking its first international approval. Furthermore, in July 2026, the FDA selected DexCom as the initial participant in its TEMPO digital device pilot program, positioning the company to develop an AI-enabled glucose health program for screening prediabetes and Type 2 diabetes, signaling a potential expansion into broader metabolic health management.
4. Increased investor confidence was reflected in substantial share repurchases and analyst upgrades.
DexCom demonstrated confidence in its valuation by executing approximately $600 million in share repurchases during fiscal Q2 2026, part of a larger $1 billion authorization for fiscal year 2026. Concurrently, multiple financial analysts reacted positively to the company's strong performance and strategic advancements, with firms like RBC Capital Markets, Citi, and Deutsche Bank raising their price targets into the $88-$105 range and maintaining "Buy" or "Outperform" ratings.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 46.6% change in DXCM stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 35.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 8032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 59.55 | 87.31 | 46.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,818 | 4,969 | 3.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 19.3% | 20.1% | 4.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.6 | 33.4 | 35.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 385 | 382 | 0.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 46.6% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DXCM | 46.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.4% | 6.4% |
| Sector (XLV) | 11.1% | 20.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 19.5% change in DXCM stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 26.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 8032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 73.04 | 87.31 | 19.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,516 | 4,969 | 10.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.0% | 20.1% | 26.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 39.6 | 33.4 | -15.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 391 | 382 | 2.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 19.5% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DXCM | 19.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.8% | 25.0% |
| Sector (XLV) | 5.3% | 34.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 8.1% change in DXCM stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 51.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 8032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 80.77 | 87.31 | 8.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,301 | 4,969 | 15.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.3% | 20.1% | 51.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 55.4 | 33.4 | -39.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 392 | 382 | 2.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 8.1% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DXCM | 8.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.9% | 21.6% |
| Sector (XLV) | 26.0% | 28.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -29.9% change in DXCM stock from 7/31/2023 to 8/3/2026 was primarily driven by a -75.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312023 | 8032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 124.56 | 87.31 | -29.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,198 | 4,969 | 55.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.2% | 20.1% | 79.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 134.7 | 33.4 | -75.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 387 | 382 | 1.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -29.9% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DXCM | -29.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 71.4% | 26.4% |
| Sector (XLV) | 26.6% | 24.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| DXCM Return | 45% | -16% | 10% | -37% | -15% | 26% | -10% |
| Peers Return | 58% | -33% | -19% | 8% | -8% | -17% | -29% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 99% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| DXCM Win Rate | 67% | 42% | 50% | 33% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 43% | 42% | 48% | 45% | 35% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 38% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| DXCM Max Drawdown | -24% | -49% | -45% | -54% | -40% | -23% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -33% | -49% | -47% | -34% | -40% | -43% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ABT, MDT, PODD, TNDM, SENS. See DXCM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/3/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | DXCM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -41.9% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 72.2% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 146 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -47.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 91.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 364 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -34.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 52.6% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 28 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -14.4% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.8% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 14 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -35.1% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 54.1% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 514 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -45.6% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 83.8% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 854 days | 62 days |
In The Past
DexCom's stock fell -41.9% during the Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 72.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | DXCM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -41.9% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 72.2% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 146 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -47.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 91.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 364 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -34.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 52.6% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 28 days | 140 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -35.1% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 54.1% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 514 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -45.6% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 83.8% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 854 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -39.1% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.1% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 456 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -85.0% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 565.5% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 418 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -21.0% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.6% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 8 days | 47 days |
In The Past
DexCom's stock fell -41.9% during the Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 72.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About DexCom (DXCM)
DexCom, Inc. (DXCM) is a medical device company focused on designing, developing, and commercializing continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) systems. These innovative systems are engineered to help individuals with diabetes manage their condition more effectively by continuously tracking glucose levels, aiming to reduce the reliance on traditional finger-stick blood glucose testing.
The company's primary product offerings include the DexCom G6, an integrated CGM system central to diabetes management, and Dexcom ONE, specifically designed to replace finger-stick blood glucose testing for treatment decisions. DexCom also provides the Dexcom Share system for remote monitoring and the Dexcom Real-Time API, which enables third-party developers to integrate live CGM data into their digital health applications. Its next-generation system, Dexcom G7, is currently a key product candidate.
DexCom primarily serves two main customer groups: people with diabetes who directly use their devices, and healthcare professionals such as endocrinologists, physicians, and diabetes educators who prescribe and manage these systems for patient care. The company markets and distributes its products directly across the United States and internationally, providing essential real-time glucose data for improved diabetes management.
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Here are 1-2 brief analogies for DexCom (DXCM):
Fitbit for blood sugar: Like how Fitbit continuously tracks activity and heart rate, DexCom continuously monitors glucose levels for people with diabetes.
Apple for diabetes management devices: DexCom provides sleek, user-friendly, and integrated continuous glucose monitoring systems that simplify a complex health condition, much like Apple simplifies technology.
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- DexCom G6: An integrated continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) system used for diabetes management.
- Dexcom Real-Time API: An interface that enables third-party developers to integrate real-time CGM data into their digital health applications.
- Dexcom ONE: A continuous glucose monitoring system designed to replace finger stick blood glucose testing for diabetes treatment decisions.
- Dexcom Share: A remote monitoring system that allows for sharing of continuous glucose monitoring data.
- Dexcom G7: A next-generation continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) system that is part of the company's product candidature.
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DexCom (symbol: DXCM) sells primarily to individuals, specifically people with diabetes, through prescriptions facilitated by healthcare providers. The company also states that its systems are "for use by healthcare providers." Based on the provided background information, the major categories of customers it serves are:
- Individuals with Type 1 Diabetes: These patients often require continuous and precise glucose monitoring for intensive insulin management.
- Individuals with Type 2 Diabetes: This includes patients who use insulin or require close glucose monitoring to manage their condition effectively.
- Healthcare Providers: This category encompasses endocrinologists, physicians, and diabetes educators. While not always the direct purchasers, these professionals are crucial customers for DexCom as they prescribe the devices to patients and are the direct recipients of the company's marketing efforts. DexCom also provides its systems for use by these providers, implying direct engagement and support for their clinical practice.
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Jacob Leach – President and Chief Executive Officer
Jacob "Jake" Leach is the President and Chief Executive Officer at Dexcom, a role he assumed effective January 1, 2026, succeeding Kevin R. Sayer. He joined Dexcom in 2004 and has over 20 years of experience in the continuous glucose monitoring industry. Prior to becoming CEO, he served as President and Chief Operating Officer, and before that, as Chief Technology Officer. Mr. Leach has been instrumental in supporting all major technology advancements at Dexcom, including the development of the first commercial Dexcom CGM system and all subsequent generations. He holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Electrical Engineering with a minor in Biomedical Engineering from the University of California, Los Angeles. He also serves on the Board of Directors at AdvaMed and is an Executive Committee member for the San Diego Economic Development Corporation.
Jereme Sylvain – Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Jereme Sylvain is the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Dexcom, a position to which he was promoted in March 2021. In this role, he is responsible for Dexcom's finance organization and investor relations. Mr. Sylvain joined Dexcom in September 2018 as Vice President, Finance and Corporate Controller, and later served as Senior Vice President, Finance and Chief Accounting Officer. Before joining Dexcom, he held various positions at NuVasive, Inc., including Chief Accounting Officer and Vice President, Corporate Controller. His career also includes leadership roles at Thermo Fisher Scientific and experience with the public accounting firm Ernst & Young LLP. Mr. Sylvain received a Bachelor of Science degree in Finance from Arizona State University and a Master of Science in Accountancy from the University of Notre Dame, and is a Certified Public Accountant.
Michael Brown – Executive Vice President and Chief Legal Officer
Michael Brown serves as the Executive Vice President and Chief Legal Officer at Dexcom.
Jon Coleman – EVP, Chief Commercial Officer
Jon Coleman holds the position of Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer at Dexcom.
Matthew Dolan – Executive Vice President, Strategy & Corporate Development & Dexcom Labs
Matthew Dolan is the Executive Vice President, Strategy & Corporate Development & Dexcom Labs at Dexcom.
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Here are the key risks to DexCom's business:
- Regulatory Scrutiny and Product Quality/Reliability Issues: DexCom faces significant risks related to regulatory compliance and the quality and reliability of its continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) systems. The U.S. FDA issued a warning letter to DexCom for unauthorized changes to a key sensor coating without submitting a premarket notification, which could increase risks for patients relying on CGMs for insulin dosing. Furthermore, FDA inspectors observed several quality control and process issues at DexCom's San Diego facility. There have been multiple recalls of DexCom G6 and G7 receivers due to defective foam or assembly errors that could lead to speaker malfunctions, preventing audible alerts for critical high or low blood glucose levels and potentially causing serious patient harm. DexCom's G7 system has also faced patient concerns regarding poor accuracy, failed sensor insertions, and abrupt stoppages. The company is currently facing class-action lawsuits alleging that it marketed defective G7 monitors, made unauthorized design changes, and that the devices provided inaccurate readings and failed to deliver critical alerts, leading to patient health risks and potentially severe consequences, including hospitalizations and alleged deaths.
- Intensifying Competition: The continuous glucose monitoring market is experiencing increasing competition, posing a formidable threat to DexCom's market share and pricing power. Competitors like Abbott Laboratories, with its FreeStyle Libre solutions, are often cited as a significant rival, offering more competitively priced products and gaining market share. Medtronic is also a notable competitor. The integration of competitors' glucose-ketone dual analyte sensors and pump systems could further complicate DexCom's gains in the Type 1 diabetes segment.
- Supply Chain and Manufacturing Challenges: DexCom relies on third-party suppliers and outsourced manufacturing, making its operations vulnerable to supply disruptions, quality issues, and price fluctuations. Manufacturing difficulties or disruptions at its facilities could adversely affect product sales and increase expenses. The company has experienced recent gross margin shortfalls and tempered margin forecasts due to supply issues, tariffs, foreign exchange headwinds, and increased scrap rates stemming from quality initiatives, highlighting vulnerabilities in its production and supply chain management.
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Addressable Markets for DexCom's Main Products and Services
DexCom, Inc. primarily operates within the continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) systems market. The addressable markets for their main products, such as Dexcom G6, Dexcom G7, Dexcom ONE, and Dexcom Stelo, are encompassed by the broader CGM market.
Global Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) Market
The global continuous glucose monitoring market was valued at approximately USD 10.9 billion in 2024. This market is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting it will reach between USD 47.1 billion by 2034 and USD 55.048 billion by 2035, demonstrating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) ranging from 15.7% to 16% during the forecast periods.
U.S. Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) Market
The U.S. continuous glucose monitoring market was valued at approximately USD 4.9 billion in 2024. Projections indicate robust growth, with the market expected to reach USD 22 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 16.2% from 2025 to 2034. Another estimate places the U.S. market at USD 7.43 billion in 2026, growing to USD 17.16 billion by 2031 with an 18.23% CAGR.
Dexcom Stelo Addressable Market (U.S.)
Dexcom's Stelo sensor, an over-the-counter CGM, targets approximately 25 million Americans with Type 2 diabetes who do not use insulin.
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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for DexCom (DXCM)
Over the next 2-3 years, DexCom (DXCM) is expected to drive future revenue growth through several key initiatives and market expansions:
- Continued Adoption and Rollout of Dexcom G7: The successful launch and ongoing uptake of the Dexcom G7 and the newer G7 15 Day system are anticipated to be significant contributors to revenue growth. Management projects 2026 revenue growth, in part, due to the broad launch of the G7 15 Day system.
- Expansion into the Type 2 Non-Insulin Market with Stelo: DexCom plans to significantly expand its addressable market by targeting people with Type 2 diabetes who do not use insulin through its new product, Stelo. This product was submitted to the FDA in Q4 2023 and is expected to launch in the U.S. in summer 2024, aiming to diversify revenue beyond high-acuity patients.
- International Market Expansion and Increased Access: A consistent driver of growth is DexCom's strategy to broaden its global footprint. The company is actively expanding access and securing reimbursement in various international markets, including strong performance noted in France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan, and Canada.
- Growth in Customer Base and CGM Awareness: The overall increase in awareness of continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) technology and the addition of new customers are fundamental drivers. DexCom has consistently demonstrated an ability to attract new users, reporting over 600,000 new DexCom users in 2023.
- Expanded Reimbursement and Pharmacy Channel Penetration: DexCom is focused on expanding coverage for its CGM systems globally, particularly for Type 2 non-insulin users. This includes efforts to secure additional access through Medicare and partnerships with Pharmacy Benefit Managers (PBMs) to shift CGM device access toward pharmacy benefits, thereby increasing patient access and adherence.
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Capital Allocation Decisions (2021-2025)
Share Repurchases
- DexCom announced a share repurchase program of up to $500 million on October 27, 2023, which was valid until October 31, 2024.
- On May 1, 2025, the company announced a new $750 million share repurchase program.
- Annual share repurchases amounted to $688.7 million in 2023, $750 million in 2024, and $500 million in 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- DexCom's capital expenditures for fiscal years ending December 2020 to 2024 averaged $309.7 million, with a median of $358.8 million.
- Capital expenditures were $389 million in 2021, $365 million in 2022, $237 million in 2023, $359 million in 2024, and approximately $364 million for 2025.
- Projected capital expenditures are set to increase, with $507 million anticipated for 2026, and further increases to $556 million in 2027 and $623 million in 2028. The primary focus of these expenditures includes investments in manufacturing, software, and organic growth, particularly to expand global manufacturing capacity.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| DXCM Grew. The Stock Did Not. Someone Is Wrong | 07/10/2026 | |
| DexCom Stock On Fire: Up 25% With 6-Day Winning Streak | 05/23/2026 | |
| DexCom Earnings Notes | 12/29/2026 | |
| DexCom Stock Surges 12%, With A 11-Day Winning Spree | 12/12/2025 | |
| DexCom Stock 10-Day Winning Spree: Stock Climbs 9.5% | 12/11/2025 | |
| 8-Day Rally Sends DexCom Stock Up 6.4% | 12/09/2025 | |
| Is 22.6% Fall In DexCom (DXCM) Stock A Buying Opportunity? | 11/08/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| 4 S&P 500 Stocks Hit 52-Week Highs On Friday | 08/03/2026 | |
| Mid Cap Stocks At 52-Week Highs: Friday’s Full List | 08/03/2026 | |
| S&P 500 Movers | Winners: AMZN, DXCM, MPWR | Losers: GDDY, CTVA, COIN | 08/03/2026 | |
| DXCM, BSX Top IDEXX Laboratories Stock on Price & Potential | 06/12/2026 | |
| 6-Day Rally Sends DexCom Stock Up 25% | 05/23/2026 |
Research & Analysis
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Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 87.00 |
| Mkt Cap | 22.6 |
| Rev LTM | 3,935 |
| Op Inc LTM | 823 |
| FCF LTM | 896 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 574 |
| CFO LTM | 1,184 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 814 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 12.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 13.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 26.7% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 15.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 16.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 16.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 20.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 22.6 |
| P/S | 4.0 |
| P/Op Inc | 19.8 |
| P/EBIT | 19.4 |
| P/E | 28.3 |
| P/CFO | 19.0 |
| Total Yield | 2.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.4% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 8.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 8.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -7.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -6.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | -31.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 1.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -17.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -26.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -103.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | 4,662 | 4,033 | 3,622 | 2,910 | 2,448 |
| Total | 4,662 | 4,033 | 3,622 | 2,910 | 2,448 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | 912 | 600 | 598 | 391 |
| Total | 912 | 600 | 598 | 391 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | 836 | 576 | 542 | 341 |
| Total | 836 | 576 | 542 | 341 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $87.31 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 33.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 04/14/2005 | |
| Distance from 52W High | 0.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $73.40 | $67.81 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | up |
| Distance from DMA | 18.9% | 28.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 48.9% | 42.1% |
| Downside Capture | -84.89 | 74.93 |
| Upside Capture | 91.72 | 68.22 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 3.3% | 20.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.23 | 0.30 | 0.11 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.82 |
| Up Beta | -0.82 | -0.83 | -0.40 | 0.15 | 0.53 | 0.81 |
| Down Beta | 0.61 | 0.82 | 0.63 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.75 |
| Up Capture | 211% | 87% | 88% | 94% | 54% | 36% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 22 | 34 | 57 | 127 | 377 |
| Down Capture | -138% | 4% | -84% | 86% | 92% | 100% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 21 | 29 | 69 | 122 | 370 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with DXCM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXCM | 8.1% | 42.1% | 0.30 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 26.1% | 15.6% | 1.29 | 28.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 21.0% | 12.9% | 1.20 | 21.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.8% | 28.1% | 0.72 | 9.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 28.8% | 19.7% | 1.16 | -9.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 15.5% | 13.8% | 0.80 | 20.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -45.9% | 43.1% | -1.30 | 9.0% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with DXCM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXCM | -4.9% | 47.6% | 0.07 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 6.0% | 15.0% | 0.22 | 37.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.9% | 17.2% | 0.58 | 39.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.2% | 18.5% | 0.75 | 5.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 19.5% | 0.32 | 4.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.5% | 18.9% | 0.03 | 30.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 11.0% | 53.1% | 0.39 | 18.7% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with DXCM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXCM | 14.9% | 48.6% | 0.48 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 9.8% | 16.6% | 0.48 | 35.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 37.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.4% | 16.1% | 0.58 | 5.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.1% | 18.0% | 0.31 | 9.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 27.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.0% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 10.0% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/4/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/30/2026 | 12.0% | ||
| 4/30/2026 | 3.0% | 2.3% | 25.7% |
| 2/12/2026 | 7.6% | 12.3% | 1.9% |
| 10/30/2025 | -14.6% | -14.9% | -5.5% |
| 7/30/2025 | -9.3% | -14.2% | -15.7% |
| 5/1/2025 | 16.2% | 21.5% | 21.7% |
| 2/13/2025 | 5.9% | 5.6% | -15.2% |
| 10/24/2024 | -1.9% | -5.8% | -2.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 11 | 9 |
| # Negative | 12 | 12 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 9.6% | 10.4% | 11.2% |
| Median Negative | -7.0% | -10.3% | -12.1% |
| Max Positive | 19.4% | 21.5% | 40.6% |
| Max Negative | -40.7% | -34.8% | -31.3% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/30/2026 | 12.0% | ||
| 4/30/2026 | 3.0% | 2.3% | 25.7% |
| 2/12/2026 | 7.6% | 12.3% | 1.9% |
| 10/30/2025 | -14.6% | -14.9% | -5.5% |
| 7/30/2025 | -9.3% | -14.2% | -15.7% |
| 5/1/2025 | 16.2% | 21.5% | 21.7% |
| 2/13/2025 | 5.9% | 5.6% | -15.2% |
| 10/24/2024 | -1.9% | -5.8% | -2.7% |
| 7/25/2024 | -40.7% | -34.8% | -31.3% |
| 4/25/2024 | -9.9% | -8.2% | -7.7% |
| 2/8/2024 | -5.2% | -7.4% | 4.7% |
| 10/26/2023 | 10.1% | 15.5% | 40.6% |
| 7/27/2023 | 2.3% | -5.6% | -22.1% |
| 4/27/2023 | -1.8% | -5.0% | -6.9% |
| 2/9/2023 | 9.9% | 9.3% | 3.2% |
| 10/27/2022 | 19.4% | 11.2% | 11.2% |
| 7/28/2022 | -5.6% | 2.9% | -2.9% |
| 4/28/2022 | -1.1% | -8.2% | -30.0% |
| 2/10/2022 | -4.9% | -12.4% | -7.9% |
| 10/28/2021 | 9.3% | 10.4% | 0.1% |
| 7/29/2021 | 13.0% | 14.9% | 14.2% |
| 4/29/2021 | -8.4% | -15.3% | -12.4% |
| 2/11/2021 | 0.6% | 2.1% | -11.8% |
| 10/26/2020 | -8.9% | -25.4% | -25.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 11 | 9 |
| # Negative | 12 | 12 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 9.6% | 10.4% | 11.2% |
| Median Negative | -7.0% | -10.3% | -12.1% |
| Max Positive | 19.4% | 21.5% | 40.6% |
| Max Negative | -40.7% | -34.8% | -31.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/12/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/18/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/08/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/09/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/12/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/18/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/08/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/09/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/14/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/28/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/11/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/27/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/28/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 04/28/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/13/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/06/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/31/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/30/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 5.18 Bil | 5.21 Bil | 5.25 Bil | 0.2% | Raised | Guidance: 5.21 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP Gross Profit Margin | 64.0% | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 63.5% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Margin | 23.5% | 23.75% | 24.0% | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 23.25% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 31.5% | 31.75% | 32.0% | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 31.25% for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/12/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 5.16 Bil | 5.21 Bil | 5.25 Bil | 12.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 4.64 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 11.0% | 12.0% | 13.0% | -3.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 15.0% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP Gross Profit Margin | 63.0% | 63.5% | 64.0% | 2.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 61.0% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Margin | 22.0% | 22.5% | 23.0% | 2.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 20.5% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 30.0% | 30.5% | 31.0% | 1.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 29.5% for 2025 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/12/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 5.16 Bil | 5.21 Bil | 5.25 Bil | 12.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 4.64 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 11.0% | 12.0% | 13.0% | -3.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 15.0% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP Gross Profit Margin | 63.0% | 63.5% | 64.0% | 2.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 61.0% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Margin | 22.0% | 22.5% | 23.0% | 2.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 20.5% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 30.0% | 30.5% | 31.0% | 1.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 29.5% for 2025 | |
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/30/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Revenue | 4.63 Bil | 4.64 Bil | 4.65 Bil | 0.6% | Raised | Guidance: 4.61 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Revenue Growth | 15.0% | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 14.5% for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Non-GAAP Gross Profit Margin | 61.0% | -1.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 62.0% for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Non-GAAP Operating Margin | 20.0% | 20.5% | 21.0% | -0.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 21.0% for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 29.0% | 29.5% | 30.0% | -0.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 30.0% for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 7/21/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sayer, Kevin R | Executive Chair | Direct | Sell | 7212026 | 76.32 | 26,756 | 2,041,999 | 25,106,760 | Form |
| 2 | Brown, Michael Jon | EVP Chief Legal Compliance Off | Direct | Sell | 7162026 | 74.42 | 1,700 | 126,514 | 7,788,276 | Form |
| 3 | Sayer, Kevin R | Executive Chair | Direct | Sell | 7072026 | 72.00 | 26,756 | 1,926,432 | 25,612,272 | Form |
| 4 | Brown, Michael Jon | EVP Chief Legal Compliance Off | Direct | Sell | 6172026 | 75.55 | 1,700 | 128,435 | 8,034,969 | Form |
| 5 | Foletta, Mark G | by Trust | Sell | 6172026 | 74.13 | 4,000 | 296,540 | 3,918,178 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sayer, Kevin R | Executive Chair | Direct | Sell | 7212026 | 76.32 | 26,756 | 2,041,999 | 25,106,760 | Form |
| 2 | Brown, Michael Jon | EVP Chief Legal Compliance Off | Direct | Sell | 7162026 | 74.42 | 1,700 | 126,514 | 7,788,276 | Form |
| 3 | Sayer, Kevin R | Executive Chair | Direct | Sell | 7072026 | 72.00 | 26,756 | 1,926,432 | 25,612,272 | Form |
| 4 | Brown, Michael Jon | EVP Chief Legal Compliance Off | Direct | Sell | 6172026 | 75.55 | 1,700 | 128,435 | 8,034,969 | Form |
| 5 | Foletta, Mark G | by Trust | Sell | 6172026 | 74.13 | 4,000 | 296,540 | 3,918,178 | Form | |
| 6 | Coleman, Jon | EVP, Chief Commercial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6052026 | 74.13 | 4,911 | 364,052 | 7,075,708 | Form |
| 7 | Coleman, Jon | EVP, Chief Commercial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6052026 | 73.00 | 4,912 | 358,576 | 7,326,353 | Form |
| 8 | Sayer, Kevin R | Executive Chair | Direct | Sell | 5262026 | 72.00 | 26,759 | 1,926,648 | 27,538,704 | Form |
| 9 | Brown, Michael Jon | EVP, Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 5192026 | 59.91 | 1,700 | 101,847 | 6,560,385 | Form |
| 10 | Heller, Bridgette P | Direct | Sell | 5142026 | 60.01 | 1,012 | 60,730 | 1,500,670 | Form | |
| 11 | Brown, Michael Jon | EVP, Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 4162026 | 63.04 | 1,700 | 107,168 | 7,010,300 | Form |
| 12 | Brown, Michael Jon | EVP, Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 3182026 | 64.85 | 1,700 | 110,245 | 7,321,824 | Form |
| 13 | Heller, Bridgette P | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 68.01 | 1,012 | 68,826 | 1,769,552 | Form | |
| 14 | Collins, Richard Alexander | by Trust | Sell | 11182025 | 59.05 | 2,906 | 171,599 | 2,071,946 | Form | |
| 15 | Heller, Bridgette P | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 58.07 | 1,012 | 58,767 | 1,569,690 | Form | |
| 16 | Leach, Jacob Steven | President & COO | Direct | Buy | 11102025 | 55.04 | 18,200 | 1,001,702 | 18,256,127 | Form |
| 17 | Collins, Richard Alexander | by Trust | Sell | 11102025 | 55.17 | 3,948 | 217,811 | 2,096,129 | Form | |
| 18 | Malady, Kyle | Direct | Sell | 9092025 | 80.86 | 667 | 53,934 | 1,832,854 | Form | |
| 19 | Stern, Sadie | EVP, Chief HR Officer | Direct | Sell | 9082025 | 80.00 | 1,466 | 117,280 | 8,417,840 | Form |
| 20 | Sylvain, Jereme M | EVP, Chief Financal Officer | Direct | Sell | 9042025 | 74.17 | 4,824 | 357,796 | 8,800,790 | Form |
| 21 | Brown, Michael Jon | EVP, Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 8182025 | 80.29 | 500 | 40,145 | 7,555,450 | Form |
| 22 | Foletta, Mark G | by Trust | Sell | 8182025 | 81.06 | 2,750 | 222,903 | 4,143,642 | Form | |
| 23 | Stern, Sadie | EVP, Chief HR Officer | Direct | Sell | 7292025 | 88.99 | 1,466 | 130,459 | 9,494,254 | Form |
| 24 | Foletta, Mark G | by Trust | Sell | 7172025 | 85.17 | 2,750 | 234,217 | 4,588,177 | Form | |
| 25 | Brown, Michael Jon | EVP, Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 7172025 | 86.03 | 500 | 43,015 | 8,138,610 | Form |
| 26 | Stern, Sadie | EVP, Chief HR Officer | Direct | Sell | 6302025 | 85.06 | 1,466 | 124,698 | 9,199,664 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Aug 4, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tri Locum Partners LP | $43.8 Mil | 6.2% | 17 | ADD +65.6% | 13F |
| Steelhead Partners LLC | $76.6 Mil | 5.5% | 24 | Hold | 13F |
| Defilade Capital Management, L.P. | $33.8 Mil | 4.8% | 31 | ADD +120.0% | 13F |
| Opti Capital Management, LP | $63.8 Mil | 4.6% | 36 | ADD +18.8% | 13F |
| MayTech Global Investments, LLC | $18.8 Mil | 2.3% | 23 | Hold | 13F |
| 2Xideas AG | $5.7 Mil | 2.2% | 47 | Hold | 13F |
| DSM Capital Partners LLC | $120.8 Mil | 2.1% | 44 | TRIM -18.3% | 13F |
| Ithaka Group LLC | $6.6 Mil | 1.4% | 38 | Hold | 13F |
| Avidity Partners Management LP | $5.7 Mil | 1.1% | 45 | New | 13F |
| Castle Hook Partners LP | $50.4 Mil | 1.0% | 44 | TRIM -64.4% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alphabet Inc. | $68.8 Mil | 2.7% | 32 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| MIG Capital, LLC | $40.2 Mil | 6.8% | 43 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Casdin Capital, LLC | $11.6 Mil | 0.7% | 38 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Castle Hook Partners LP | $50.4 Mil | 1.0% | 44 | TRIM -64.4% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| DSM Capital Partners LLC | $120.8 Mil | 2.1% | 44 | TRIM -18.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DSM Capital Partners LLC | $120.8 Mil | 2.1% | 44 | TRIM -18.3% | 13F |
| Steelhead Partners LLC | $76.6 Mil | 5.5% | 24 | Hold | 13F |
| Opti Capital Management, LP | $63.8 Mil | 4.6% | 36 | ADD +18.8% | 13F |
| Castle Hook Partners LP | $50.4 Mil | 1.0% | 44 | TRIM -64.4% | 13F |
| Tri Locum Partners LP | $43.8 Mil | 6.2% | 17 | ADD +65.6% | 13F |
| Defilade Capital Management, L.P. | $33.8 Mil | 4.8% | 31 | ADD +120.0% | 13F |
| MayTech Global Investments, LLC | $18.8 Mil | 2.3% | 23 | Hold | 13F |
| Ithaka Group LLC | $6.6 Mil | 1.4% | 38 | Hold | 13F |
| Avidity Partners Management LP | $5.7 Mil | 1.1% | 45 | New | 13F |
| 2Xideas AG | $5.7 Mil | 2.2% | 47 | Hold | 13F |
DXCM Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is constructive, based on record new customer additions and raised 2026 guidance for revenue and margins. The successful CONNECT clinical trial provides a clear catalyst for expanding into the large Type 2 non-insulin market. Future Medicare pricing pressure and intense competition from a larger rival warrant observation.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Medical Device & Consumables (Razor/Razorblade)Revenue = (Number of Active Users) x (Utilization Rate) x (Net Price Per Sensor) Gross margin expansion driven by manufacturing efficiencies, higher production volumes, and a favorable product mix shift towards newer, more efficient products like the G7 15-day system.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests yes. Positive CONNECT trial data is paving the way for expanded reimbursement, with a key CMS coverage decision expected by year-end, targeting 25 million potential new U.S. users.
- Global new customer starts in Q2 2026 remained in line with the prior quarter's record.
- Management raised revenue guidance to -, representing 11% to 13% growth.
- The company is targeting 25 million people in the U.S. with type 2 diabetes not using insulin.
- FY2026 Non-GAAP Operating Margin guidance was raised to a range of 23.5% to 24%.
- The CONNECT study adds Level A evidence supporting coverage for the non-insulin population.
PRIMARY RISK
The company faces persistent pricing pressure and an expected reduction in Medicare reimbursement from competitive bidding starting in 2027. Competitor Abbott has 9.4 times the revenue and superior scale, posing a structural threat as the market expands to more cost-sensitive patients. Inventory has also grown 27.3%, outpacing 13.1% revenue growth.
- Medicare competitive bidding, expected to lower reimbursement, begins contracting in 2027.
- Competitor Abbott Laboratories' revenue is 9.4 times DexCom's revenue.
- Inventory grew 27.3% year-over-year in the latest quarter, while revenue grew 13.1%.
- The company received an FDA warning letter in March 2025 for two of its manufacturing facilities.
- The company anticipates it will continue to experience decreasing prices for its products.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| New Customer/Patient Starts | Global new customer starts in Q2 2026 were 'in line' with the prior quarter's record level. - Stable | The company achieved a global record for new patient starts in Q1 2026 and maintained that pace in Q2 2026. This indicates strong and sustained demand at a high level, with particular strength noted in the U.S. market sequentially. |
| Revenue Growth | 13.1% year-over-year growth for the quarter ended 6/30/2026. - Decelerating | While the year-over-year growth rate has slowed from the prior quarter, it remains in the double digits and is holding at the same level seen two quarters prior, suggesting a moderation rather than a collapse in growth. |
| Global New Customer Starts | In line with previous record (Q2 2026) | Indicates the pace of market penetration and adoption of the company's CGM technology, a primary driver of volume growth. |
| G7 Net Promoter Scores (NPS) | Increasing (for the last 3 quarters as of Q2 2026) | Measures customer satisfaction and loyalty. Improving scores suggest better product performance and user experience, which can lead to higher retention and positive word-of-mouth. |
| Net Customer Additions (excluding Stelo) | 600,000 to 700,000 (Fiscal Year 2025) | Quantifies the net growth of the company's worldwide customer base over a full year, reflecting the balance of new starts and customer attrition. |
Market Expansion vs. Margin Compression
BULL VIEW
Bulls believe the 25 million U.S. Type 2 non-insulin patient opportunity, unlocked by positive clinical data and new payor wins like Prime Therapeutics, will drive durable double-digit growth, offsetting future pricing pressure through sheer volume and mix improvement.
CORE TENSION
Can new market penetration, with a CMS decision expected by year-end, outrun future, confirmed Medicare price reductions starting in 2027?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The bulls have momentum. The company just raised full-year 2026 guidance for revenue and margins, and new customer starts remain at record levels, supporting the expansion thesis.
BEAR VIEW
Bears argue that the structural threat of Medicare competitive bidding in 2027 and Abbott's massive scale advantage will inevitably compress margins and cap growth, making the current expansion a temporary phase before a reset.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
10/13/2026 | Competitive CGM Market Watch: Abbott's reported growth rate for its Diabetes Care division and management commentary on Libre market share. |
10/13/2026 | Abbott Earnings Report Watch: Peer Abbott Laboratories (ABT) reports earnings, providing a competitive update on its Libre franchise. |
October 13, 2026 | Credit Agreement Maturity Watch: The company's Amended Credit Agreement is scheduled to mature. |
10/28/2026 | Margin Execution Scrutiny Watch: Reported gross and operating margins versus raised guidance, and any commentary on costs from the Ireland facility ramp. |
10/28/2026 | Company Earnings Report Watch: DexCom reports Q3 2026 earnings. |
11/3/2026 | Senseonics Earnings Report Watch: Peer Senseonics (SENS) reports earnings. |
11/4/2026 | Insulet, Tandem Earnings Watch: Peers Insulet (PODD) and Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM) report earnings. |
11/16/2026 | Medtronic Earnings Report Watch: Peer Medtronic (MDT) reports earnings. |
before the end of this year | CMS Coverage Decision Watch: A coverage decision from CMS regarding the non-insulin Type 2 population is expected. |
second half of 2 thousand 26 | Canada G7 15-Day Launch Watch: The company plans to launch the G7 15-day system in Canada. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-07-30 | Q2 Earnings and Guidance Raise Details: The company reported Q2 2026 results and raised its full-year 2026 guidance for revenue, non-GAAP gross margin, and non-GAAP operating margin. The stock reacted up 11.0%. | +11.1% $75.14 -> $83.45 |
2026-07-13 | G7 15-Day Canadian Approval Details: Health Canada authorized the Dexcom G7 15 Day CGM system for people 18 years and older with diabetes, extending the sensor's wear time. | -1.1% $74.96 -> $74.12 |
2026-06-06 | CONNECT Study Results Details: The company announced positive results from its CONNECT randomized controlled trial, showing its G7 CGM leads to significant A1C reduction for Type 2 diabetes patients not using insulin. | +5.6% $72.59 -> $76.62 |
2026-05-26 | Theft of Scrapped Product Details: The company announced it had identified that certain lots of G7 sensors designated as scrap were stolen during the destruction process and sold by third parties. | -2.6% $72.10 -> $70.26 |
2026-04-30 | Q1 2026 Earnings Report Details: The company reported first quarter 2026 earnings on April 30, 2026. The stock reacted positively, rising 7.0% over two days versus 1.0% for the S&P 500. | +6.6% $57.56 -> $61.35 |
2026-02-12 | Q4 2025 Earnings Report Details: The company reported fourth quarter 2025 earnings on February 12, 2026, which was followed by a 3.0% positive two-day stock reaction. | +2.7% $68.15 -> $70.02 |
Position Sizing
2% - 4%
REDUCED POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: DXCM trades at roughly 46% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 14% for the S&P 500 (3.3x the market), around the 85th percentile of its own trailing year. A 2% - 4% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
ABT - Abbott Laboratories
Scale and DiversificationAbbott offers exposure to the same CGM market but with nearly 10 times the revenue scale and diversification across other medical device and diagnostic segments, reducing single-product risk.
MDT - Medtronic
Integrated System PlayMedtronic provides a more integrated diabetes ecosystem, combining its CGM technology with its own insulin pumps, which appeals to patients seeking a single-vendor solution.
DexCom is a razor/razorblade business where the razorblade (disposable sensors) drives recurring revenue, with growth tied to expanding the user base through new product cycles and, most critically, securing broader insurance reimbursement.
DexCom is a leader in the CGM market, benefiting from a shift in diabetes management from traditional finger sticks to continuous monitoring. Its growth hinges on two main levers: innovation (like the G7 15-day sensor) to improve user experience and attract new patients, and clinical evidence (like the CONNECT study) to persuade payors to expand coverage, especially for the vast Type 2 non-insulin population. The company is demonstrating strong operating leverage, but faces persistent pricing pressure from payors and intense competition.
A positive Medicare national coverage decision for Type 2 non-insulin patients; faster-than-expected customer conversion to the higher-margin G7 15-day system; continued share gains in international markets.
A negative or delayed Medicare coverage decision for Type 2 non-insulin patients; significant price degradation from Medicare's competitive bidding program; a competitor launching a technologically superior or significantly cheaper product.
Short-term stock volatility around earnings; minor legal disputes unless they threaten core IP or market access.
Repricing Catalyst
The potential for a CMS coverage decision for the Type 2 non-insulin population, strengthened by recent positive data from the CONNECT clinical trial, as mentioned in a June press release and the Q2 earnings call.
Single Segment
$5.0B TTM (100% of Total) · 23% MarginWhat It Is
The company sells continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) systems, including the G6, G7, G7 15 Day, Dexcom One, Dexcom ONE+, and Stelo biosensor. These are sold to people with diabetes (Type 1 and Type 2) and those seeking to optimize metabolic health, as well as their caregivers and clinicians.
Who Pays & How
Third-party payors, such as government programs and private health insurance, pay for the majority of products because CGM is clinically proven to lower A1C, reduce hospitalizations, and increase time in normal glucose range, leading to better health outcomes and lower long-term costs. Uninsured individuals or those without coverage pay out-of-pocket.
Competition
DexCom — Investor Video Playlist
External Quote Links
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