Penumbra (PEN)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $309.25 | Market Cap: $12.1 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Equipment
Penumbra (PEN)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $309.25Market Cap: $12.1 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.9% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 53x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 49x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 60x |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -14%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -25% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.5% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, and Geriatric Care. | Key risksPEN key risks include [1] significant litigation and regulatory fallout from the Class I recall of its Jet 7 catheter linked to patient deaths, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, and Geriatric Care. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.9% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -14%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -25% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 53x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 49x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 60x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.5% |
| Key risksPEN key risks include [1] significant litigation and regulatory fallout from the Class I recall of its Jet 7 catheter linked to patient deaths, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
PEN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for Penumbra's stock movement from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:
1. Penumbra reported strong third-quarter 2025 financial results on November 5, 2025, exceeding analyst expectations for both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue. The company's Q3 2025 revenue was $354.7 million, an increase of 17.8% year-over-year, surpassing the consensus estimate of $340.77 million. Additionally, Penumbra's Q3 2025 EPS of $0.97 beat the analyst consensus of $0.90.
2. The company raised its full-year 2025 revenue guidance, indicating continued positive outlook. Following its strong Q3 performance, Penumbra increased its total revenue guidance for 2025 to a range of $1,375 million to $1,380 million, representing 15% to 16% growth over 2024 revenue.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PEN Return | 7% | 64% | -23% | 13% | -6% | 30% | 88% |
| Peers Return | 4% | 8% | -4% | 12% | 18% | 19% | 69% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PEN Win Rate | 42% | 58% | 50% | 67% | 33% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 54% | 52% | 52% | 54% | 58% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PEN Max Drawdown | -24% | 0% | -60% | -18% | -35% | -5% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -35% | -7% | -19% | -7% | -4% | -2% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SYK, MDT, JNJ, BSX. See PEN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PEN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -62.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 167.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 327 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -35.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 55 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -31.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 172 days | 120 days |
Compare to SYK, MASI, DAVI, EMI, IAMR
In The Past
Penumbra's stock fell -62.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/28/2021. A -62.6% loss requires a 167.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PEN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.1% | -7.1% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.6% | 3.6% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.1% | -7.1% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.6% | 3.6% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Penumbra
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 210.33 |
| Mkt Cap | 134.8 |
| Rev LTM | 24,381 |
| Op Inc LTM | 4,785 |
| FCF LTM | 4,073 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 3,282 |
| CFO LTM | 4,832 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,952 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 11.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 19.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 20.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 134.8 |
| P/S | 5.8 |
| P/EBIT | 29.5 |
| P/E | 48.0 |
| P/CFO | 29.3 |
| Total Yield | 3.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.9% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.6% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 4.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 16.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 24.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 41.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 2.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 4.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 12.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -24.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2025 | 17.3% | 24.3% | 30.7% |
| 7/29/2025 | 11.9% | 5.7% | 17.5% |
| 2/18/2025 | 12.0% | 3.9% | 3.1% |
| 10/30/2024 | 8.3% | 10.6% | 15.5% |
| 7/30/2024 | -3.5% | -1.0% | 15.8% |
| 5/7/2024 | -3.3% | -0.6% | -6.5% |
| 2/22/2024 | -9.3% | -10.6% | -14.4% |
| 11/2/2023 | -0.2% | -7.3% | 15.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 10 | 11 |
| # Negative | 12 | 12 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 10.1% | 8.8% | 15.5% |
| Median Negative | -3.1% | -5.7% | -11.2% |
| Max Positive | 17.3% | 25.7% | 40.5% |
| Max Negative | -9.7% | -19.0% | -16.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7292025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4232025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2182025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7302024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2222022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |