Penumbra (PEN)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $288.88 | Market Cap: $11.3 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Equipment
Penumbra (PEN)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $288.88Market Cap: $11.3 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -24%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -29% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 53x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 49x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 60x |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.5% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, and Geriatric Care. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, and Geriatric Care. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -24%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -29% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 53x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 49x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 60x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.5% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
PEN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining Penumbra's stock movement from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
**1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results.** Penumbra reported robust financial performance for the third quarter of 2025, exceeding analyst expectations. The company announced revenue of $354.7 million, surpassing the estimated $340.80 million, and a diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.17, well above the consensus estimate of $0.91. This strong earnings beat demonstrated significant year-over-year growth in both revenue (17.8%) and net income (55.3%), driven by improvements in gross margin and operational efficiency.
**2. Raised Full-Year 2025 Revenue Guidance.** Following the impressive Q3 results, Penumbra increased its total revenue guidance for the full year 2025 to a range of $1.375 billion to $1.380 billion, representing a 15% to 16% growth over 2024 revenue. This upward revision signaled strong confidence from management in the company's continued growth trajectory and market performance, particularly in its thrombectomy franchise.
**3. Positive Outcomes from the Landmark STORM-PE Clinical Trial.** New data from the STORM-PE randomized controlled trial, presented in late October and early November 2025, demonstrated that Computer Assisted Vacuum Thrombectomy (CAVT) combined with anticoagulation significantly improved functional outcomes for patients with pulmonary embolism. The trial concluded that CAVT was superior to traditional anticoagulation treatment, providing strong clinical evidence that is expected to drive broader adoption and utilization of Penumbra's thrombectomy technology.
**4. Favorable Analyst Ratings and Increased Price Targets.** Several financial analysts responded positively to Penumbra's strong performance and clinical trial data by reiterating or upgrading their ratings and increasing price targets for the stock. For example, Canaccord Genuity maintained a "Strong Buy" rating and raised its price target to $355 on November 6, 2025, while Needham reiterated a "Strong Buy" with a $326 target on October 27, 2025. The consensus analyst rating for Penumbra remained largely bullish, indicating a positive outlook for the stock.
**5. Launch of SwiftSET Neuro Embolization Coil.** In October 2025, Penumbra launched the SwiftSET Neuro Embolization Coil, designed for precise and secure embolization in neurovascular procedures. This new product introduction expanded the company's innovative medical device portfolio, offering new growth opportunities and enhancing its competitive position in the neurovascular market.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PEN Return | 7% | 64% | -23% | 13% | -6% | 21% | 75% |
| Peers Return | 29% | 6% | -19% | 1% | 21% | -4% | 31% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PEN Win Rate | 42% | 58% | 50% | 67% | 33% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 44% | 36% | 31% | 39% | 39% | 30% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PEN Max Drawdown | -24% | 0% | -60% | -18% | -35% | -5% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -15% | -11% | -30% | -16% | -4% | -8% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SYK, MASI, DAVI, EMI, IAMR. See PEN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PEN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -62.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 167.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 327 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -35.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 55 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -31.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 172 days | 120 days |
Compare to SYK, MASI, DAVI, EMI, IAMR
In The Past
Penumbra's stock fell -62.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/28/2021. A -62.6% loss requires a 167.6% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Would You Still Hold Penumbra Stock If It Fell 30%? | Return | ||
| Penumbra vs Meta Platforms: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Penumbra vs Eli Lilly: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Penumbra vs Boston Scientific: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Does Penumbra Stock Lead the Pack?null | Peer Comparison | ||
| Better Bet Than PEN Stock: Pay Less Than Penumbra To Get More From CALM, ACAD | |||
| Better Bet Than PEN Stock: Pay Less Than Penumbra To Get More From ACAD, ADMA | |||
| PEN Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Penumbra Total Shareholder Return (TSR): -5.6% in 2024 and -6.2% 3-yr compounded annual returns (below peer average) | |||
| Wait For A Dip To Buy Penumbra Stock | Buy or Fear | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Better Bet Than Artivion Stock: Pay Less To Get More From PEN, PODD | August 21st, 2025 | ||
| Strong Revenue Trends And Better Prospects Make Penumbra Stock A Good Bet | May 23rd, 2022 | ||
| Down 16% In A Month, Will Penumbra Stock Rebound? | March 14th, 2022 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PEN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Penumbra
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 285.71 |
| Mkt Cap | 11.2 |
| Rev LTM | 1,758 |
| Op Inc LTM | 153 |
| FCF LTM | 160 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 111 |
| CFO LTM | 206 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 147 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 11.2 |
| P/S | 5.8 |
| P/EBIT | 29.5 |
| P/E | 48.0 |
| P/CFO | 38.3 |
| Total Yield | 1.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.3% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -3.9% |
| 12M Rtn | -5.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 35.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -8.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -18.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -19.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -28.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7292025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4232025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2182025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7302024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2222022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |