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Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -24%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -29%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 53x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 49x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 60x
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 39%
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.5%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, and Geriatric Care.
  
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 39%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, and Geriatric Care.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -24%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -29%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 53x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 49x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 60x
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.5%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

PEN Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining Penumbra's stock movement from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: **1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results.** Penumbra reported robust financial performance for the third quarter of 2025, exceeding analyst expectations. The company announced revenue of $354.7 million, surpassing the estimated $340.80 million, and a diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.17, well above the consensus estimate of $0.91. This strong earnings beat demonstrated significant year-over-year growth in both revenue (17.8%) and net income (55.3%), driven by improvements in gross margin and operational efficiency.

**2. Raised Full-Year 2025 Revenue Guidance.** Following the impressive Q3 results, Penumbra increased its total revenue guidance for the full year 2025 to a range of $1.375 billion to $1.380 billion, representing a 15% to 16% growth over 2024 revenue. This upward revision signaled strong confidence from management in the company's continued growth trajectory and market performance, particularly in its thrombectomy franchise.

**3. Positive Outcomes from the Landmark STORM-PE Clinical Trial.** New data from the STORM-PE randomized controlled trial, presented in late October and early November 2025, demonstrated that Computer Assisted Vacuum Thrombectomy (CAVT) combined with anticoagulation significantly improved functional outcomes for patients with pulmonary embolism. The trial concluded that CAVT was superior to traditional anticoagulation treatment, providing strong clinical evidence that is expected to drive broader adoption and utilization of Penumbra's thrombectomy technology.

**4. Favorable Analyst Ratings and Increased Price Targets.** Several financial analysts responded positively to Penumbra's strong performance and clinical trial data by reiterating or upgrading their ratings and increasing price targets for the stock. For example, Canaccord Genuity maintained a "Strong Buy" rating and raised its price target to $355 on November 6, 2025, while Needham reiterated a "Strong Buy" with a $326 target on October 27, 2025. The consensus analyst rating for Penumbra remained largely bullish, indicating a positive outlook for the stock.

**5. Launch of SwiftSET Neuro Embolization Coil.** In October 2025, Penumbra launched the SwiftSET Neuro Embolization Coil, designed for precise and secure embolization in neurovascular procedures. This new product introduction expanded the company's innovative medical device portfolio, offering new growth opportunities and enhancing its competitive position in the neurovascular market.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
PEN Return7%64%-23%13%-6%21%75%
Peers Return29%6%-19%1%21%-4%31%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
PEN Win Rate42%58%50%67%33%40% 
Peers Win Rate44%36%31%39%39%30% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
PEN Max Drawdown-24%0%-60%-18%-35%-5% 
Peers Max Drawdown-15%-11%-30%-16%-4%-8% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SYK, MASI, DAVI, EMI, IAMR. See PEN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventPENS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-62.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven167.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven327 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-35.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven55.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven55 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-31.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven46.3%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven172 days120 days

Compare to SYK, MASI, DAVI, EMI, IAMR


In The Past

Penumbra's stock fell -62.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/28/2021. A -62.6% loss requires a 167.6% gain to breakeven.

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About Penumbra (PEN)

Better Bets than Penumbra (PEN)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to PEN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Penumbra

Peers to compare with:

Financials

PENSYKMASIDAVIEMIIAMRMedian
NamePenumbra Stryker Masimo Davion H.Encore M.Industri. 
Mkt Price285.71365.95138.09---285.71
Mkt Cap11.2139.97.5---11.2
Rev LTM1,33424,3812,182--01,758
Op Inc LTM1734,785133---5153
FCF LTM1534,073168---0160
FCF 3Y Avg1113,28293---111
CFO LTM2034,832208---0206
CFO 3Y Avg1403,952147---147

Growth & Margins

PENSYKMASIDAVIEMIIAMRMedian
NamePenumbra Stryker Masimo Davion H.Encore M.Industri. 
Rev Chg LTM14.6%11.0%38.5%---30.2%12.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg17.2%10.8%11.4%---11.4%
Rev Chg Q17.8%10.2%8.2%---96.3%9.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM4.2%2.4%1.3%---67.8%1.8%
Op Mgn LTM13.0%19.6%6.1%---173,235.5%9.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg8.6%19.5%8.9%---8.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.5%0.0%2.0%---85,529.4%0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM15.2%19.8%9.5%---5,112.9%12.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg11.6%17.8%8.1%---11.6%
FCF/Rev LTM11.4%16.7%7.7%---5,112.9%9.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg9.2%14.7%5.3%---9.2%

Valuation

PENSYKMASIDAVIEMIIAMRMedian
NamePenumbra Stryker Masimo Davion H.Encore M.Industri. 
Mkt Cap11.2139.97.5---11.2
P/S7.45.83.7---5.8
P/EBIT52.929.5-46.7---29.5
P/E60.448.0-14.0---48.0
P/CFO48.729.338.3---38.3
Total Yield1.7%3.0%-7.1%---1.7%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.9%0.0%---0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg1.3%2.6%1.1%---1.3%
D/E0.00.10.1---0.1
Net D/E-0.00.10.0---0.0

Returns

PENSYKMASIDAVIEMIIAMRMedian
NamePenumbra Stryker Masimo Davion H.Encore M.Industri. 
1M Rtn26.3%2.2%-4.7%---2.2%
3M Rtn5.9%-5.6%1.0%---1.0%
6M Rtn11.9%-3.9%-15.3%----3.9%
12M Rtn16.5%-5.5%-20.7%----5.5%
3Y Rtn35.5%55.1%-5.1%---35.5%
1M Excs Rtn26.3%2.2%-4.7%---2.2%
3M Excs Rtn-3.2%-12.3%-8.8%----8.8%
6M Excs Rtn-2.8%-18.6%-30.0%----18.6%
12M Excs Rtn3.5%-19.4%-33.5%----19.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-28.5%-6.9%-75.5%----28.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Thrombectomy677511   
Embolization and Access381336   
Neuro  339293332
Vascular  409268216
Total1,059847748560547


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,687,371
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-7.2%
Average Daily Volume572,612
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.95
Basic Shares Quantity39,078,378
Short % of Basic Shares4.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025729202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025423202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024218202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241030202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024730202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023222202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023801202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023502202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022223202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022805202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022503202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021222202210-K 12/31/2021