Medpace (MEDP)
Market Price (4/24/2026): $410.72 | Market Cap: $11.6 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Life Sciences Tools & Services
Medpace (MEDP)
Market Price (4/24/2026): $410.72Market Cap: $11.6 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Life Sciences Tools & Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 21% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.2 Bil Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Biotechnology & Genomics. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Gene Editing & Therapy, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -9.2% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 27x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 32x Key risksMEDP key risks include its high concentration of small and mid-sized biopharmaceutical clients, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 21% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.2 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Biotechnology & Genomics. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, Gene Editing & Therapy, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -9.2% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 27x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 32x |
| Key risksMEDP key risks include its high concentration of small and mid-sized biopharmaceutical clients, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Weaker-than-expected Book-to-Bill Ratios and Increased Backlog Cancellations.Medpace's stock decline was primarily driven by lower new business awards relative to revenue, signaling weakening market demand. The book-to-bill ratio for Q4 2025 was 1.04, falling below the company's guidance of 1.15 and leading to a 15.9% stock drop on February 10, 2026. This trend continued into Q1 2026, with the net book-to-bill ratio further dipping to 0.88x, indicating a rise in cancellations and impacting future revenue visibility. The company noted Q4 2025 backlog cancellations were "the highest they've been in over a year".
2. Declining Net Income Margins.Despite strong revenue growth, Medpace experienced a contraction in its net income margin. The net income margin decreased to 17.5% in Q1 2026, down from 20.5% in the comparable prior-year period (Q1 2025). This indicates pressure on profitability, which likely contributed to investor concern despite beating earnings per share estimates for both Q4 2025 and Q1 2026.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -30.0% change in MEDP stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/23/2026 was primarily driven by a -32.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 561.65 | 393.42 | -30.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,358 | 2,530 | 7.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 18.4% | 17.8% | -2.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 36.5 | 24.7 | -32.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 28 | 28 | -0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -30.0% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MEDP | -30.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.2% | 31.2% |
| Sector (XLV) | -5.5% | 28.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -23.5% change in MEDP stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/23/2026 was primarily driven by a -29.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 514.16 | 393.42 | -23.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,232 | 2,530 | 13.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 18.7% | 17.8% | -4.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 35.2 | 24.7 | -29.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 29 | 28 | 1.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -23.5% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MEDP | -23.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.0% | 33.9% |
| Sector (XLV) | 5.5% | 31.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 29.1% change in MEDP stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/23/2026 was primarily driven by a 20.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 304.69 | 393.42 | 29.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,109 | 2,530 | 20.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 19.2% | 17.8% | -7.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 23.3 | 24.7 | 5.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 31 | 28 | 9.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 29.1% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MEDP | 29.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 28.1% | 29.0% |
| Sector (XLV) | 1.5% | 36.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 109.2% change in MEDP stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/23/2026 was primarily driven by a 73.3% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 188.05 | 393.42 | 109.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,460 | 2,530 | 73.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.8% | 17.8% | 6.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 23.9 | 24.7 | 3.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 31 | 28 | 10.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 109.2% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MEDP | 109.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 79.8% | 31.1% |
| Sector (XLV) | 18.3% | 35.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MEDP Return | 56% | -2% | 44% | 8% | 69% | -9% | 265% |
| Peers Return | 54% | -32% | 3% | -20% | 6% | -15% | -22% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 4% | 90% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MEDP Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 75% | 33% | 67% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 81% | 33% | 42% | 37% | 54% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MEDP Max Drawdown | -5% | -40% | -18% | -7% | -17% | -26% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -1% | -42% | -21% | -27% | -40% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: IQV, CRL, LH, FTRE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/23/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MEDP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -42.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 75.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 261 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -39.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 65.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 119 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -39.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 181 days | 120 days |
Compare to IQV, CRL, LH, FTRE
In The Past
Medpace's stock fell -42.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/27/2021. A -42.9% loss requires a 75.0% gain to breakeven.
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About Medpace (MEDP)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Medpace (MEDP):
- The AWS for drug and medical device clinical trials.
- Accenture for pharmaceutical and medical device R&D.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Clinical Development & Monitoring: Comprehensive management and oversight of clinical trials for drugs and medical devices from Phase I through Phase IV.
- Regulatory Affairs: Expert guidance and support for navigating global regulatory processes and preparing submissions for market authorization.
- Data Management & Biostatistics: Collection, processing, analysis, and reporting of clinical trial data to derive meaningful insights.
- Pharmacovigilance: Systematic monitoring and reporting of adverse drug reactions to ensure patient safety throughout the product lifecycle.
- Central Laboratory Services: Standardized and coordinated laboratory testing, sample management, and bio-analytical services for clinical studies.
- Specialized Imaging & ECG: Provision of advanced medical imaging and electrocardiography reading support for clinical trials.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Medpace (MEDP) provides clinical research and development services primarily to other companies in the life sciences sector. Medpace serves a broad and diversified client base, and as such, no single customer typically accounts for a significant portion of its revenue (e.g., 10% or more) that would require individual disclosure in its public filings. Therefore, specific names of major customer companies are not publicly available.
Instead, Medpace's customer base can be categorized into the following industries:
- Pharmaceutical Companies: This includes a range of clients from large, established global pharmaceutical corporations to emerging small and mid-sized drug developers that require clinical trial services for their drug candidates.
- Biotechnology Companies: Often innovative and rapidly growing firms focused on developing biological products and therapies, these companies frequently outsource their clinical development needs to Contract Research Organizations (CROs) like Medpace.
- Medical Device Companies: Organizations engaged in the development, manufacturing, and marketing of medical devices also utilize Medpace's services for clinical trials, regulatory support, and post-market studies.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
August J. Troendle, MD, Chief Executive Officer & Chairman of the Board of DirectorsDr. Troendle founded Medpace in July 1992 and has served as its Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board since its inception. Prior to founding Medpace, he served as Assistant, Associate, and Senior Associate Director at Sandoz (Novartis) from 1987 to 1992, where he was responsible for the clinical development of lipid-altering agents. From 1986 to 1987, Dr. Troendle worked as a Medical Review Officer in the Division of Metabolic and Endocrine Drug Products at the FDA. He has extensive experience as a director for various public and private companies, including Coherus BioSciences, Inc., Xenon Pharmaceuticals Inc., LIB Therapeutics, LLC, CinCor Pharma, Inc., and CinRx Pharma, LLC. Medpace transitioned from a founder-led private firm to a public CRO after a 2014 recapitalization by CCMP Capital and an August 2016 Nasdaq IPO.
Kevin Brady, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer
Mr. Brady joined Medpace in November 2018 as Executive Director, Finance, became Treasurer in February 2019, and was appointed Chief Financial Officer on August 1, 2021. Before joining Medpace, he served as Vice President of Finance for Myriad Genetics, Inc. from 2015 to 2018. Prior to Myriad, he spent ten years at Procter & Gamble in various finance and accounting leadership roles and started his career in the audit practice at Ernst & Young LLP. He also served as Vice President & Corporate Controller of Assurex Health from May 2015 through August 2016, which was subsequently acquired by Myriad Genetics, Inc.
Jesse Geiger, President
Mr. Geiger joined Medpace in October 2007 as Corporate Controller, became Chief Financial Officer in March 2011, and expanded his role to include Chief Operating Officer of Laboratory Operations in November 2014. He was appointed President on August 1, 2021. Mr. Geiger was instrumental in leading Medpace through two equity recapitalizations, including with Cinven in early 2014. Prior to Medpace, he worked for SENCORP from 2004 to 2007 as Corporate Controller and Manager of Financial Planning and Analysis, and before that, he was the Director of Capital Markets for Cincinnati Bell from 2002 to 2004. He began his career in the audit practice at Arthur Andersen LLP. Mr. Geiger has also served as a director for several private companies, including LIB Therapeutics, LLC and CinRx Pharma, LLC since 2015.
Stephen P. Ewald, General Counsel, Chief Compliance Officer & Corporate Secretary
Mr. Ewald joined Medpace in 2012.
Susan Burwig, Executive Vice President, Operations
Ms. Burwig joined Medpace in 1993.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Medpace's business are primarily tied to the cyclical nature and funding environment of the biopharmaceutical industry, stringent regulatory landscapes, and intense market competition. Here are the key risks:- Dependence on Biopharmaceutical R&D Spending, Funding, and Project Cancellations: Medpace's revenue is heavily reliant on the research and development (R&D) expenditures of pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and medical device companies, particularly smaller biopharmaceutical firms which accounted for 79% of its net revenue in 2024. These companies may have limited access to capital, making Medpace susceptible to a slowdown in biotech funding or reduced R&D budgets. A soft biotech funding environment, as observed since 2022, and higher interest rates affecting industry funding, can lead to decreased demand for Medpace's services. Furthermore, cancellations and delays in clinical trials negatively impact Medpace's operating results, with the company reporting a higher level of cancellations and a historically low net book-to-bill ratio in the third quarter of 2024 and Q4 2025.
- Regulatory Changes and Compliance Risks: Medpace operates in a highly regulated industry, making it vulnerable to healthcare reform and potential additional regulatory changes that could impact the biopharmaceutical industry. Such reforms might reduce the need for Medpace's services or negatively affect its profitability. Recent legislation mandating medicine price cuts in the U.S. and reductions in U.S. government healthcare expenses pose a considerable risk, as they could lead customers to reduce R&D expenditures. Any failure to comply with stringent regulatory requirements, such as Good Clinical Practice (GCP) regulations, could result in significant liabilities, including the need to repeat clinical trials, thereby affecting the company's financial performance and reputation.
- Intense Industry Competition and Pricing Pressure: The clinical research organization (CRO) industry is highly competitive and characterized by rapid consolidation and the emergence of new competitors. Medpace must continuously innovate and differentiate its services to maintain its market position against larger or more specialized CROs. This competitive landscape can lead to increased pricing pressure or other pressures, which could result in a decrease in Medpace's operating margins if the company is unable to achieve efficiencies or grow revenues at a rate faster than expenses.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The increasing adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) by pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies for drug discovery, clinical trial design, patient recruitment, and data analysis represents a clear emerging threat. This technology can enable sponsors to perform more tasks in-house or rely on specialized AI-driven platforms, potentially reducing the scope or volume of traditional outsourced services provided by Contract Research Organizations (CROs) like Medpace. It also opens the door for new, tech-first competitors that leverage AI more effectively in clinical development.
The acceleration and mainstream adoption of decentralized clinical trials (DCTs) and virtual trial models also represent a clear emerging threat. These models shift away from traditional site-centric operations towards remote patient monitoring, telemedicine, wearables, and direct-to-patient services. If Medpace does not rapidly and effectively integrate and scale these technology-driven operational models, it risks losing market share to competitors (both established and new tech-focused players) that are more agile in implementing DCTs, potentially diminishing the demand for Medpace's traditional labor-intensive monitoring and site management services.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Medpace Holdings, Inc. (MEDP) operates within the Contract Research Organization (CRO) industry, providing a comprehensive suite of clinical research-based drug and medical device development services across various therapeutic areas globally, including North America, Europe, and Asia. These services span the entire clinical development process from Phase I to Phase IV.
According to Medpace's corporate presentation from May 2025, their core addressable market for the services they provide is estimated to be $71 billion globally. With a specific emphasis on serving small to mid-sized biotechnology, pharmaceutical, and medical device companies, this addressable market is clarified to be $29 billion globally. Medpace's strategic focus is on these smaller biopharma clients, with 81% of their year-to-date 2025 revenue coming from this segment.
For broader context, the global contract research organization (CRO) services market, which encompasses Medpace's main products and services, was valued at approximately USD 77.00 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to around USD 149.34 billion by 2034, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.61% from 2025 to 2034. Other estimates for the global CRO market in 2025 range from USD 84.61 billion to USD 92.27 billion.
Regionally, North America is a significant market for CRO services, holding the largest share of the global market. In 2024, North America accounted for 35% of the global market. Its market size was valued at USD 49.88 billion in 2026. The European CRO market is projected to grow from USD 23.6 billion in 2024 to USD 44.81 billion by 2035. The Asia-Pacific CRO market is estimated at USD 18.94 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 31.10 billion by 2030.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Medpace (MEDP)
Over the next two to three years, Medpace Holdings, Inc. (MEDP) is expected to drive revenue growth through several key factors:- Conversion of Robust Backlog into Revenue: Medpace consistently highlights its significant backlog of awarded projects. For instance, as of December 31, 2025, approximately $1.9 billion of the company's nearly $3 billion backlog was projected to convert into revenue within the subsequent 12 months. This strong existing pipeline provides a predictable base for future revenue generation.
- Continued Growth in Net New Business Awards: The company's ability to secure new contracts, evidenced by its net new business awards and book-to-bill ratio, is a crucial indicator of future revenue. Medpace reported $736.6 million in net new business awards in Q4 2025, resulting in a healthy net book-to-bill ratio of 1.04x for the quarter and 1.05x for the full year 2025. A sustained book-to-bill ratio above 1.0 indicates continued expansion of its project pipeline.
- Enhanced Operational Efficiency and Productivity: Medpace emphasizes ongoing improvements in operational efficiency and productivity. These efforts are expected to optimize resource utilization, allowing the company to execute projects more efficiently and handle increasing demand, thereby contributing to revenue growth without a proportional increase in costs. The company also noted a modest headcount growth alongside substantial revenue growth, suggesting productivity improvements.
- Sustained Demand for Outsourced, Complex Clinical Trials: Medpace's business model is centered on providing services for complex clinical trials across various therapeutic areas, including cutting-edge cell therapy work. The broader long-term need for outsourced clinical research, particularly for specialized and faster-burning studies, underpins the company's revenue acceleration. While there have been some shifts and elevated cancellations in metabolic trials, management expects a normalization of these trends, supporting overall demand for their services.
- Stable Funding Environment and Request for Proposal (RFP) Flow: Management commentary suggests a stable funding environment for clinical research and anticipates stable to improved RFP flow. A consistent and robust flow of new project requests is essential for replenishing the backlog and driving future revenue growth.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Medpace authorized an additional $1 billion share repurchase program in May 2025.
- For the full year 2025, the company repurchased 2,961,924 shares for a total of $912.9 million.
- As of December 31, 2025, Medpace had $821.7 million remaining under its authorized share repurchase program.
Share Issuance
- Medpace Holdings' shares outstanding declined by 7.77% in 2025 to 0.03 billion, indicating that share repurchases outpaced any issuances.
- In 2024, shares outstanding increased by 0.54% from 2023 to 0.032 billion.
- Stock-based compensation expense, a source of potential dilution, was $34.786 million in 2025 and $25.514 million in 2024.
Capital Expenditures
- Property and equipment expenditures were $31.356 million in 2025 and $36.548 million in 2024.
- Capital expenditures were $36.65 million in 2023 and $36.88 million in 2022.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures is on infrastructure investments in facilities, equipment, and technology.
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03312026 | PGNY | Progyny | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | CNC | Centene | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.3% | 2.3% | -0.6% |
| 03272026 | OSCR | Oscar Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.0% | 3.0% | -2.6% |
| 03202026 | WAT | Waters | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.4% | -0.4% | -3.3% |
| 03202026 | GILD | Gilead Sciences | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.6% | 1.6% | -2.2% |
| 04302025 | MEDP | Medpace | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 89.6% | 55.7% | -6.4% |
| 08312022 | MEDP | Medpace | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 33.0% | 83.1% | -1.7% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 167.74 |
| Mkt Cap | 11.1 |
| Rev LTM | 4,015 |
| Op Inc LTM | 535 |
| FCF LTM | 682 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 550 |
| CFO LTM | 738 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 719 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.4% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 19.7% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -1.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 10.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 12.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 11.1 |
| P/S | 1.7 |
| P/Op Inc | 14.4 |
| P/EBIT | 16.4 |
| P/E | 20.1 |
| P/CFO | 11.2 |
| Total Yield | 4.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.0% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -32.8% |
| 6M Rtn | -12.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 35.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | -17.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -8.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -35.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -16.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 4.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -89.7% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | 2,109 | 1,886 | |||
| Antiviral and Anti-infective (AVAI) | 118 | 111 | 103 | ||
| Cardiology | 175 | 120 | 95 | ||
| Central Nervous System | 158 | 122 | 88 | ||
| Metabolic | 245 | 160 | 126 | ||
| Oncology | 468 | 363 | 298 | ||
| Other | 297 | 267 | 215 | ||
| Total | 2,109 | 1,886 | 1,460 | 1,142 | 926 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | 447 | ||||
| Total | 447 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | 404 | ||||
| Total | 404 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $393.42 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 11.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 08/11/2016 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -36.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $469.23 | $509.62 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -16.2% | -22.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 65.0% | 66.5% |
| Downside Capture | 319.13 | 181.43 |
| Upside Capture | 101.10 | 156.47 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 36.1% | 23.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.04 | 1.01 | 1.08 | 1.15 | 1.03 | 1.05 |
| Up Beta | 0.07 | -0.64 | 0.33 | 1.57 | 0.71 | 0.96 |
| Down Beta | 1.84 | 0.03 | 0.35 | 0.51 | 0.93 | 0.62 |
| Up Capture | 142% | 120% | 136% | 138% | 204% | 297% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 16 | 25 | 36 | 68 | 134 | 402 |
| Down Capture | 30% | 188% | 169% | 130% | 118% | 106% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 6 | 17 | 27 | 58 | 117 | 347 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MEDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEDP | 42.7% | 70.3% | 0.75 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 9.8% | 15.8% | 0.40 | 31.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 36.1% | 12.7% | 2.15 | 22.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 38.7% | 27.3% | 1.18 | 7.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 45.3% | 18.0% | 1.93 | -4.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.6% | 13.3% | 0.77 | 20.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -16.3% | 42.1% | -0.31 | 16.7% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MEDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEDP | 17.5% | 51.9% | 0.49 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 5.4% | 14.6% | 0.19 | 39.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.6% | 17.1% | 0.58 | 39.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.0% | 17.8% | 0.96 | 6.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.5% | 19.1% | 0.62 | 3.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.7% | 18.8% | 0.10 | 34.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.9% | 56.4% | 0.31 | 17.1% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MEDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEDP | 30.6% | 50.0% | 0.74 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 9.5% | 16.5% | 0.46 | 44.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 44.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.9% | 15.9% | 0.73 | 6.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.0% | 17.8% | 0.47 | 10.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.5% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 36.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.5% | 66.9% | 1.08 | 13.6% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/22/2026 | -22.6% | ||
| 2/9/2026 | -15.9% | -19.3% | -9.9% |
| 10/22/2025 | 9.1% | 6.9% | 7.2% |
| 7/21/2025 | 54.7% | 46.7% | 49.6% |
| 4/21/2025 | -2.3% | 3.2% | 6.1% |
| 2/10/2025 | -7.5% | -3.9% | -8.3% |
| 10/21/2024 | -7.5% | -6.7% | -10.8% |
| 7/22/2024 | -18.3% | -11.9% | -10.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 12 | 12 |
| # Negative | 13 | 10 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 11.8% | 8.6% | 10.3% |
| Median Negative | -7.5% | -6.8% | -9.9% |
| Max Positive | 54.7% | 46.7% | 49.6% |
| Max Negative | -22.6% | -19.6% | -22.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/10/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/22/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/22/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/11/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/22/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/23/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/23/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/13/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/14/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/25/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/26/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/22/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 2.75 Bil | 2.81 Bil | 2.85 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.81 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 8.9% | 10.85% | 12.8% | 0 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 10.85% for 2026 |
| 2026 Net Income | 487.00 Mil | 499.00 Mil | 511.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 499.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 EBITDA | 605.00 Mil | 620.00 Mil | 635.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 620.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 EPS | 16.7 | 17.1 | 17.5 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 17.1 for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/9/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 2.75 Bil | 2.81 Bil | 2.85 Bil | 10.9% | Higher New | Actual: 2.53 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 8.9% | 10.85% | 12.8% | -42.3% | -8.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 18.8% for 2025 |
| 2026 Net Income | 487.00 Mil | 499.00 Mil | 511.00 Mil | 14.7% | Raised | Guidance: 435.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 EPS | 16.7 | 17.1 | 17.5 | 16.0% | Raised | Guidance: 14.7 for 2025 | |
MEDP Trade Sentinel
UNDERWEIGHT (Score 3-4)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The stock is assigned a low score despite a mathematically favorable risk/reward skew. The qualitative factors are overwhelmingly negative and leading. An 'ERODING' competitive trajectory, coupled with a 'SPECULATIVE' valuation in the face of a sharp growth deceleration, creates a high risk of the downside scenario materializing. This profile fits a potential value trap where the attractive upside is unlikely to be realized due to deteriorating business fundamentals.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Type B: 'Quality Compounder / Stalwart'While Medpace previously exhibited the hyper-growth of a 'High-Beta Compounder' (Type A), the company's own guidance confirms a sharp deceleration. The investment thesis now hinges on the durability of its high margins, ROIC, and moat—hallmarks of a 'Quality Compounder'. The market is currently re-rating the stock from a Type A valuation to a Type B reality.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The market is over-penalizing Medpace for a growth deceleration that is now public knowledge. The core long-term value driver remains its 'high-science,' physician-led model, which commands superior margins and generates substantial free cash flow. As the market's focus shifts from top-line growth to profitability and capital return, Medpace's elite operational efficiency and accretive buybacks will drive shareholder value.
- Superior Profitability: FY 2025 EBITDA margin of 22% and operating margin of 21.6% demonstrate high operational efficiency.
- Exceptional Capital Efficiency: Asset-light model with a 122.3% conversion rate of EBITDA to free cash flow for the full year 2025.
- Accretive Capital Allocation: Management has demonstrated a commitment to returning capital to shareholders via substantial share repurchases, totaling $912.9M in 2025.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary risk is that the guided slowdown is not a temporary trough but the start of a structural decline. Forward-looking indicators are flashing red: elevated and widespread project cancellations are eroding the existing backlog, while a weak book-to-bill ratio relative to key competitors suggests new business is not being won fast enough to offset the decay. This indicates a potential loss of competitive positioning in its core markets.
- Elevated Cancellations: Management confirmed Q4 2025 saw the highest rate of project cancellations in over a year, with weakness skewed to the critical metabolic area.
- Slowing Pipeline: The total backlog grew only 4.3% YoY, a rate that cannot structurally support a high-growth narrative.
- Competitive Underperformance: The Q4 2025 net book-to-bill ratio of 1.04x signals anemic new business wins and lags key competitor IQVIA's stronger 1.18x in the same period.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Net Book-to-Bill Ratio | Sustainably > 1.15x | This is the primary indicator of new business momentum. A ratio below 1.1x, especially while lagging peers, confirms the company is losing its growth algorithm. |
| Project Cancellations | Normalization to pre-2025 levels | Management has flagged this as the key issue driving the current weakness. A failure to normalize this metric means the backlog is unreliable and future revenue is at risk. |
| Year-over-Year Backlog Growth | Re-acceleration to High-Single-Digits | The 4.3% growth rate is a major red flag. This KPI must improve to support a narrative of stabilizing growth beyond the next 12 months. |
Backlog Integrity vs. Margin Durability
BULL VIEW
The market is over-penalizing a temporary growth slowdown. Superior margins (~22%), high FCF conversion (122.3%), and accretive buybacks will drive long-term value, proving operational excellence.
CORE TENSION
Bears see a leaky backlog (cancellations) and slowing new business as a structural break. Bulls believe elite margins and FCF can weather this now-public growth deceleration.
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The Q4 2025 earnings report confirmed the highest rate of cancellations in a year, a book-to-bill of 1.04x lagging rival IQVIA, and guidance for a sharp growth deceleration.
BEAR VIEW
Elevated cancellations, anemic backlog growth (4.3% YoY), and a book-to-bill (1.04x) lagging peers (IQV 1.18x) signal a permanent loss of competitive advantage and future revenue.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late April 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Net Book-to-Bill ratio. Watch for improvement from Q4's 1.04x and commentary confirming cancellations have normalized from their 'highest in a year' levels. |
Late July 2026 | Q2 2026 Earnings Call Watch: FY2026 Guidance Update. The key is whether management reaffirms or revises the current 8.9%-12.8% revenue growth guidance based on H1 trends. |
Quarterly (April/July 2026) | Biotech Venture Capital Funding Reports Watch: Headline: Quarterly change in VC funding for biotech. A downturn directly pressures MEDP's small/mid-sized client base, which comprises 82% of revenue. |
Ongoing / Next 6 months | Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decisions Watch: Headline: 10-Year Treasury Yield breaks and holds above 4.5%. This macro event could trigger a de-rating for high-multiple stocks like MEDP. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
8/29/2025 | Insider Selling Disclosures Details: Filings revealed significant insider selling by executives, including the CEO, over the preceding months, a trend that continued through the end of the year. | Flat (0.5%) $472.94 -> $475.51 |
10/22/2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Report Details: Medpace reported strong Q3 results with revenue up 23.7% YoY. Net new business awards surged 47.9% YoY, driving a healthy 1.20x book-to-bill ratio. | Surged +9.1% $546.74 -> $596.61 |
12/4/2025 | Market Downturn / Profit Taking Details: Stock experienced a sharp one-day drop, likely due to sector-wide profit-taking or macroeconomic concerns following a strong run-up in prior months. | Plummeted -5.5% $576.49 -> $544.77 |
1/15/2026 | Stock Hits 52-Week High Details: Stock reached its peak price in the provided data, rallying over 10% in the first two weeks of the year ahead of its Q4 earnings report. | Surged +10.0% $561.65 -> $618.04 |
2/9/2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings & FY26 Guidance Details: Despite beating Q4 estimates (Revenue +32% YoY), stock crashed on news of elevated cancellations, a low 1.04x book-to-bill, and weak FY26 revenue growth guidance of 8.9%-12.8%. | Plummeted -15.9% $530.35 -> $446.05 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Stock is in an Explosive Volatility regime (3.25x S&P). The Bearish sentiment, Speculative valuation, and Eroding Moat override the high backlog visibility, mandating a Conservative sizing.
Diversification Alternatives
IQV
INDUSTRYUnlike MEDP, IQVIA has stronger new business momentum (book-to-bill 1.18x vs 1.04x) and a data/AI-driven moat that MEDP cannot replicate, offering a more durable growth profile.
TMO
SECTORThermo Fisher (via its PPD unit) offers a highly diversified life sciences tools and services platform, making it less vulnerable to the biotech funding cycle than the concentrated MEDP model.
Medpace is a high-growth Contract Research Organization (CRO) that monetizes a ~$3.0B project backlog by executing clinical trials primarily for small-to-mid-sized biopharma companies.
Filter all news through the lens of backlog growth and quality. The key debate is whether a recent spike in project cancellations is a one-off event or the start of a trend that threatens future revenue growth.
Book-to-bill ratio consistently >1.10x; net new business awards growth >+15% YoY; management commentary indicating cancellation rates have normalized; announcements of new large-scale trial wins.
Book-to-bill ratio below 1.0x for consecutive quarters; continued commentary on elevated cancellations; news of funding difficulties for small/mid-cap biotech sector; significant customer concentration increase.
Quarterly fluctuations in reimbursable pass-through costs; single-trial results for specific customers (the business is a portfolio of trials); general CRO market growth forecasts (Medpace's niche focus is the key driver).
Repricing Catalyst
The market is currently focused on the forward trajectory of revenue growth, repricing the stock based on the interplay between new business wins and a recent, unprecedented spike in project cancellations. The key catalyst will be the book-to-bill ratio in the upcoming quarters. A return to >1.1x would confirm the cancellation spike was temporary, supporting renewed multiple expansion. Continued sluggishness (near 1.0x) would validate the current, more cautious valuation and suggest the 2026 growth guidance (8.9%-12.8%) is at risk.
Clinical Research Services
$2.5B TTM (100% of Total) · 30.1% MarginWhat It Is
End-to-end clinical trial management services, including study design, patient recruitment, data management, regulatory submissions, and specialized laboratory services (central lab, imaging core lab, bioanalytical lab).
Who Pays & How
Primarily small and mid-sized biopharmaceutical companies (~80% of revenue) pay Medpace to act as their outsourced R&D department. These clients lack the scale and broad expertise to run complex, global clinical trials in-house and rely on Medpace's integrated, full-service model and therapeutic expertise to accelerate drug development.
Competition
External Quote Links
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| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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