Natera (NTRA)
Market Price (6/3/2026): $213.01 | Market Cap: $30.1 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Life Sciences Tools & Services
Natera (NTRA)
Market Price (6/3/2026): $213.01Market Cap: $30.1 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Life Sciences Tools & Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, and Personalized Diagnostics. | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -324 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -13% Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 143x Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.0% Key risksNTRA key risks include [1] its consistent history of substantial net losses and an uncertain path to profitability, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, and Personalized Diagnostics. |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -324 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -13% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 143x |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.0% |
| Key risksNTRA key risks include [1] its consistent history of substantial net losses and an uncertain path to profitability, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Updated on 6/1/2026
Natera (NTRA) stock has remained largely at the same level since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong First Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Upgraded Full-Year Guidance. Natera reported robust Q1 2026 revenues of $696.6 million, marking a significant 38.8% increase compared to the first quarter of 2025. This performance, driven by an 18.5% increase in processed tests (approximately 1,013,600 tests), surpassed market expectations. Following these results, the company raised its full-year 2026 revenue outlook to a range of $2.74 billion to $2.82 billion, up from the previous guidance of $2.62 billion to $2.70 billion, and projected a gross margin of approximately 64% to 66%. This positive financial update, announced on May 7, 2026, instilled investor confidence.
2. Key FDA Approval for Signatera CDx. Natera received a significant boost with the U.S. FDA approval of Signatera CDx (companion diagnostic) on May 15, 2026. This approval is for its use with adjuvant atezolizumab immunotherapy in patients with muscle-invasive bladder cancer. This represents a major milestone as it is the first companion diagnostic approval in the blood-based minimal residual disease (MRD) testing field, highlighting Natera's leadership in precision oncology.
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Natera (NTRA) stock has remained largely at the same level since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong First Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Upgraded Full-Year Guidance. Natera reported robust Q1 2026 revenues of $696.6 million, marking a significant 38.8% increase compared to the first quarter of 2025. This performance, driven by an 18.5% increase in processed tests (approximately 1,013,600 tests), surpassed market expectations. Following these results, the company raised its full-year 2026 revenue outlook to a range of $2.74 billion to $2.82 billion, up from the previous guidance of $2.62 billion to $2.70 billion, and projected a gross margin of approximately 64% to 66%. This positive financial update, announced on May 7, 2026, instilled investor confidence.
2. Key FDA Approval for Signatera CDx. Natera received a significant boost with the U.S. FDA approval of Signatera CDx (companion diagnostic) on May 15, 2026. This approval is for its use with adjuvant atezolizumab immunotherapy in patients with muscle-invasive bladder cancer. This represents a major milestone as it is the first companion diagnostic approval in the blood-based minimal residual disease (MRD) testing field, highlighting Natera's leadership in precision oncology.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 2.3% change in NTRA stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 8.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 208.04 | 212.73 | 2.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,306 | 2,501 | 8.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 12.5 | 12.0 | -3.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 138 | 142 | -2.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 2.3% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NTRA | 2.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.0% | 40.8% |
| Sector (XLV) | -8.2% | 55.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -10.9% change in NTRA stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/2/2026 was primarily driven by a -22.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 238.81 | 212.73 | -10.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,117 | 2,501 | 18.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 15.5 | 12.0 | -22.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 137 | 142 | -3.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -10.9% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NTRA | -10.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.8% | 39.7% |
| Sector (XLV) | -6.4% | 40.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 34.9% change in NTRA stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 36.6% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 157.73 | 212.73 | 34.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,831 | 2,501 | 36.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 11.6 | 12.0 | 3.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 135 | 142 | -4.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 34.9% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NTRA | 34.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 34.3% |
| Sector (XLV) | 12.3% | 34.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 351.6% change in NTRA stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 188.2% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 5312023 | 6022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 47.11 | 212.73 | 351.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 868 | 2,501 | 188.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 6.1 | 12.0 | 98.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 112 | 142 | -21.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 351.6% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NTRA | 351.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 88.9% | 43.3% |
| Sector (XLV) | 20.4% | 32.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NTRA Return | -6% | -57% | 56% | 153% | 45% | -4% | 120% |
| Peers Return | 24% | -40% | -3% | -1% | 41% | 7% | 9% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 102% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NTRA Win Rate | 67% | 33% | 58% | 75% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 32% | 42% | 50% | 52% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NTRA Max Drawdown | -32% | -70% | -40% | -15% | -25% | -28% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -29% | -49% | -38% | -32% | -36% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: GH, ILMN, LH, DGX, MYGN. See NTRA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/2/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NTRA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -23.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 154 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -12.4% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.1% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 10 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.3% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 14 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -69.2% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 224.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 666 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -53.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 115.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 40 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -53.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 113.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 149 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Natera's stock fell -23.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 30.5% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | NTRA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -23.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 154 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.3% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 14 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -69.2% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 224.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 666 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -53.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 115.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 40 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -53.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 113.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 149 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -28.0% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.9% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 27 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -56.6% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 130.4% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 865 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -70.9% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 244.0% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 889 days | 15 days |
In The Past
Natera's stock fell -23.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 30.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Natera (NTRA)
Natera, Inc., a diagnostics company, develops and commercializes molecular testing services worldwide. It offers Panorama, a non-invasive prenatal test that screens for chromosomal abnormalities of a fetus with a blood draw from the mother, as well as twin pregnancies for zygosity; Vistara, a single-gene mutations screening test to identify single-gene disorder; Horizon carrier screening to determine carrier status for various genetic diseases; and Spectrum to identify chromosomal anomalies or inherited genetic conditions during an in vitro fertilization cycle. The company also provides Anora miscarriage test products to analyze fetal chromosomes to understand the cause of miscarriage; and non-invasive paternity testing products to determine paternity by gestation using a blood draw from the pregnant mother and alleged father. In addition, it offers Constellation, a cloud-based software product that enables laboratory customers to gain access through the cloud to the company's algorithms and bioinformatics in order to validate and launch tests; Signatera, a circulating tumor DNA technology that screen for a generic set of mutations independent of an individual's tumor; and Prospera used to assess organ transplant rejection. The company offers products through its direct sales force, as well as through a network of approximately 100 laboratory and distribution partners. It has a partnership agreement with BGI Genomics Co., Ltd. to develop, manufacture, and commercialize NGS-based genetic testing assays; and Foundation Medicine, Inc. to develop and commercialize personalized circulating tumor DNA monitoring assays. The company was formerly known as Gene Security Network, Inc. and changed its name to Natera, Inc. in 2012. Natera, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is based in Austin, Texas.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Natera (NTRA):
- Like a specialized Quest Diagnostics, focusing on advanced genetic and molecular tests for conditions like prenatal disorders and cancer.
- Think Guardant Health for genetic cancer monitoring, but also a leader in genetic tests for prenatal health and organ transplant management.
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- Panorama: A non-invasive prenatal test screening for fetal chromosomal abnormalities and twin zygosity.
- Vistara: A single-gene mutation screening test to identify single-gene disorders.
- Horizon carrier screening: A test to determine an individual's carrier status for various genetic diseases.
- Spectrum: A test used during in vitro fertilization cycles to identify chromosomal anomalies or inherited genetic conditions.
- Anora miscarriage test: A product analyzing fetal chromosomes to determine the cause of miscarriage.
- Non-invasive paternity testing: A service to determine paternity during gestation using blood draws from the mother and alleged father.
- Constellation: A cloud-based software product providing laboratory customers access to Natera's algorithms and bioinformatics for test validation and launch.
- Signatera: A circulating tumor DNA technology used to screen for a generic set of mutations independent of an individual's tumor.
- Prospera: A test used to assess organ transplant rejection.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Natera (NTRA) primarily sells its products and services to other companies, rather than directly to individuals. Its major customer categories and specific company partners are:
- Laboratories: Natera provides its Constellation cloud-based software product, which enables laboratory customers to access its algorithms and bioinformatics to validate and launch tests. Furthermore, Natera offers its molecular testing services through a network that includes approximately 100 laboratory partners worldwide.
- Distribution Partners: The company utilizes a network of approximately 100 distribution partners to commercialize its products, indicating these partners purchase and distribute Natera's offerings.
- BGI Genomics Co., Ltd. (300676.SZ): Natera has a partnership agreement with BGI Genomics to develop, manufacture, and commercialize NGS-based genetic testing assays.
- Foundation Medicine, Inc.: Natera has a partnership agreement with Foundation Medicine to develop and commercialize personalized circulating tumor DNA monitoring assays. Foundation Medicine was formerly a public company (symbol FMI) but is now a subsidiary of Roche Holding AG.
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- BGI Genomics Co., Ltd. (SZSE: 300676)
- Foundation Medicine, Inc.
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Steve Chapman Chief Executive Officer and PresidentSteve Chapman joined Natera in 2010 and has served as Chief Executive Officer since January 2019, also serving on the company's board of directors. Before becoming CEO, he held several other leadership positions at Natera, including Chief Operating Officer, Chief Commercial Officer, Senior Vice President of Commercial, and Vice President of Sales. He notably led Natera's commercial entry into the non-invasive prenatal testing market, where its Panorama® test became a market leader. Prior to Natera, Chapman worked at Genzyme Genetics, where he was recognized for achieving record-breaking commercial growth and implementing strategies that transformed pregnancy genetic testing. He began his career as a researcher in the department of human genetics at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), focusing on identifying SNPs associated with multiple sclerosis. Chapman holds a B.S. in Microbiology, Immunology, and Molecular Genetics from UCLA. He was named a 2024 Top Healthcare Technology CEO and BioTechnology Innovator of the Year.
Michael Brophy Chief Financial Officer and Principal Accounting OfficerMichael Brophy has served as Natera's Chief Financial Officer since February 2017, having joined the company in 2015. During his tenure at Natera, he held roles as Vice President of Corporate Development and Investor Relations and Senior Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations. Before joining Natera, Brophy worked in the investment banking division of Morgan Stanley as a Vice President and Executive Director, where he specialized in advising corporate clients within the life science tools and diagnostics sector. He earned an MBA from the University of California, Los Angeles, and a Bachelor of Science degree in Economics from the United States Air Force Academy.
Solomon Moshkevich President, Clinical DiagnosticsSolomon Moshkevich joined Natera in 2011 and currently serves as President of Clinical Diagnostics, overseeing productization, clinical validation, commercialization, and quality across the company. He has been instrumental in building and leading various teams, including global marketing, product management, medical and scientific affairs, commercial operations, clinical trial operations, business development, international sales, program management, and portfolio strategy. Moshkevich played a key role in the development, clinical validation, and commercial success of all of Natera's cell-free DNA products, such as Panorama, Prospera, and Signatera. He previously served as General Manager of Oncology. Moshkevich began his career as a consultant with Bain & Company and later joined the private equity investment team at Parthenon Capital. He holds an MBA from Stanford University and a B.A. in economics and mathematics from Columbia University.
Matthew Rabinowitz, PhD Executive Chairman of the Board, Co-FounderMatthew Rabinowitz is a co-founder of Natera, Inc., which was initially known as Gene Security Network, Inc. He currently serves as the Executive Chairman of its board of directors. From 2005 to 2019, Rabinowitz held the position of Natera's Chief Executive Officer. He manages an early-stage technology venture fund that focuses on biotech, security, and artificial intelligence (AI). Additionally, Rabinowitz serves as a chairman, director, and/or advisor for numerous companies and nonprofits involved in diagnostics, biotech, AI, health services, and nature conservation.
John Fesko President & Chief Business OfficerJohn Fesko joined Natera in 2014 and was promoted to President & Chief Business Officer in September 2023. He oversees reimbursement strategy and market access, patient operations and experience, marketing and communications, government affairs, business and market development, pharmaceutical services, and international commercial operations. Fesko previously held various leadership roles of increasing responsibility at Natera, including Chief Business Officer since 2019. Prior to his time at Natera, he gained experience working at Roche, Novartis Pharma AG, MPM Capital, and InVivoScribe.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Natera (NTRA) faces several key risks inherent to the highly regulated and competitive diagnostics industry, particularly concerning its genetic testing services. Here are the key risks to Natera's business:Reimbursement and Regulatory Challenges
Natera's revenue significantly depends on favorable reimbursement policies and consistent insurance coverage for its diagnostic tests, including non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) and minimal residual disease (MRD) assays. Changes in reimbursement rates, coverage decisions by private payers or government programs like Medicare (for example, increased scrutiny on laboratory-developed tests under new FDA rules), or a reduction in average sales prices could substantially impact the company's profitability and market access. Furthermore, Natera has faced allegations and settlements related to improper billing practices in the past, indicating an ongoing sensitivity to regulatory compliance and billing integrity.Intense Competition and Rapid Technological Obsolescence
The genetic testing and diagnostics market is highly competitive and characterized by rapid technological advancements. Natera competes with established diagnostic giants such as Labcorp and Quest Diagnostics in women's health, specialized companies like CareDx in organ transplant diagnostics, and various players in the burgeoning oncology MRD testing space. This intense competition could lead to pricing pressures, the introduction of more advanced or cost-effective tests by rivals, or the emergence of new technologies that could render some of Natera's current offerings less competitive or obsolete, affecting its market share and growth prospects.Intellectual Property Litigation and Protection
As a company built on proprietary cell-free DNA technology, Natera's business heavily relies on its ability to protect its intellectual property (IP) through patents. The company has been actively involved in numerous patent infringement lawsuits, both as a plaintiff defending its technology and as a defendant. While Natera has successfully secured favorable rulings, including permanent injunctions against competitors, ongoing or future litigation could be costly, divert significant resources, and, if unsuccessful, could jeopardize its market exclusivity or necessitate expensive licensing agreements. The company also faced a significant liability finding for false advertising in one lawsuit, highlighting broader litigation risks.AI Analysis | Feedback
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```htmlNatera (NTRA) offers a range of molecular testing services with significant addressable markets globally and in the U.S.
Women's Health
- Panorama (Non-Invasive Prenatal Test - NIPT): The global Non-Invasive Prenatal Testing (NIPT) market was valued at approximately USD 6.45 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach around USD 18.94 billion by 2034, expanding at a CAGR of 11.65% from 2025 to 2034. Other sources indicate the global NIPT market size was USD 4.16 billion in 2024, poised to grow to USD 9.49 billion by 2033 at a CAGR of 9.6% from 2026–2033, and also valued at USD 7.2 billion in 2025, estimated to reach USD 14.7 billion by 2032 with a CAGR of 11% from 2025-2032. North America consistently dominates the global NIPT market, holding approximately 40% to 61.7% of the market share in 2024.
- Horizon (Carrier Screening): The global carrier screening market was valued at USD 2.66 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 8.36 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 15.40% from 2025 to 2032. Other estimates place the global market size at USD 3.09 billion in 2025, growing to USD 18.58 billion by 2035 at a CAGR of 19.65% from 2026-2035. North America held the largest share of the global carrier screening market, at 42% in 2025.
- Vistara (Single-Gene Mutations Screening Test): While specific market sizing for Vistara alone is not explicitly available, it addresses single-gene disorders. The expanded carrier screening market, which includes the detection of multiple conditions, held the dominating share of the carrier screening market with 50% in 2025.
- Spectrum (IVF Genetic Testing / Preimplantation Genetic Testing - PGT): The global preimplantation genetic testing (PGT) market was estimated at USD 852.4 million in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 1,282.1 million by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 7.1% from 2025 to 2030. Another estimate values the global PGT market at USD 928.78 billion in 2025, projected to reach USD 1,736.79 billion by 2034 with a CAGR of 7.2%. The global preimplantation genetic testing market size is also expected to be valued at US$ 598.4 million in 2026 and reach US$ 1,081.9 million by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 8.8%. North America accounts for a significant portion of this market, with some reports indicating 38% of the global share.
- Anora (Miscarriage Test): The global recurrent pregnancy loss diagnostics market size reached USD 1.43 billion in 2024 and is expected to expand at a CAGR of 7.2% from 2025 to 2033, leading to a forecasted market size of USD 2.68 billion by 2033. North America remains the largest regional market for recurrent pregnancy loss diagnostics, accounting for approximately 38% of the global market share in 2024.
Oncology
- Signatera (Circulating Tumor DNA - ctDNA for Molecular Residual Disease - MRD): The total addressable market for minimal residual disease (MRD) testing is estimated to be $15 billion. More specifically, for colorectal cancer MRD testing, the addressable market is estimated at $3.5 billion annually in the U.S. The global minimal residual disease (MRD) testing market size is estimated at USD 1.70 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 4.72 billion by 2034, expanding at a CAGR of 12.00% from 2025 to 2034. North America dominated the minimal residual disease (MRD) testing market with around 45% share in 2024. The broader global circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) market, which includes MRD monitoring, is calculated at USD 7.96 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 27.67 billion by 2034, expanding at a CAGR of 14.85% from 2025 to 2034. North America dominated the ctDNA market with a 51% share in 2024.
Organ Health
- Prospera (Organ Transplant Rejection Assessment): The global transplant diagnostics market size accounted for USD 4.90 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 9.24 billion by 2035, expanding at a CAGR of 6.55% from 2026 to 2035. Another source valued the global transplant diagnostics market at USD 4275.4 million in 2025, anticipated to reach USD 6511.91 million by 2033, expanding at a CAGR of 5.4% between 2026 and 2033. North America dominated the market with a major market share in 2025, and held the largest market share at 42% in 2025.
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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Natera (NTRA) over the next 2-3 years:
- Continued strong growth of Signatera (Oncology Segment): Natera's Signatera molecular residual disease (MRD) test is consistently highlighted as a key revenue driver. The company has reported substantial year-over-year increases in oncology test volumes, with a 56% rise in MRD clinical units in Q4 2025 compared to Q4 2024, and 55% growth in oncology tests in Q4 2024 over Q4 2023. Analysts and management anticipate continued robust sequential growth for Signatera. Growth is further supported by expanding reimbursement coverage across various cancer types, guideline updates for circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA), and the launch of new products like the Latitude Tissue-Free MRD test.
- Expansion of Prospera (Organ Health Segment): The Prospera test, used to assess organ transplant rejection, is another significant growth area. Natera expects strong sequential growth from Prospera. The organ health segment experienced nearly 50% year-on-year volume growth in Q4 2024, and the company has launched new features, such as those for Prospera Heart, to enhance rejection detection in heart transplant patients.
- Increase in overall test volumes and average selling prices (ASPs) across the product portfolio: Natera has consistently demonstrated growth driven by both increased test volumes and improvements in average selling prices across its range of services. In Q4 2024, revenues grew almost twice as fast as volumes, attributed to improving ASPs for products including Panorama (non-invasive prenatal test) and Horizon (carrier screening). Strategic efforts to secure reimbursement for covered services are also contributing to these ASP improvements.
- Launch of new products, expanded indications, and pipeline catalysts: Natera's commitment to innovation and its robust pipeline are expected to fuel future revenue. Recent examples include the expanded 21-gene Fetal Focus single-gene non-invasive prenatal test (NIPT). The company also anticipates future growth from upcoming clinical readouts in oncology, kidney/heart transplantation, and fetal RhD NIPT, as well as potential guideline updates and international approvals.
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Share Issuance
- In September 2023, Natera completed an underwritten equity offering, raising approximately $235.8 million net of underwriting discounts.
- The company redeemed all of its outstanding 2.25% Convertible Senior Notes due 2027, converting $287.4 million of notes into approximately 7.5 million shares of common stock.
- Weighted-average shares outstanding increased from 124.7 million in 2024 to 136.7 million in 2025.
Outbound Investments
- In December 2025, Natera completed the acquisition of Foresight Diagnostics, which included a developed technology intangible asset valued at $335.3 million. The upfront cost for this acquisition was $275 million, with potential earnouts of an additional $175 million.
Capital Expenditures
- Net cash used in investing activities for the full year 2025 was $155.2 million.
- Natera's research and development costs for 2025 reached $1,801.4 million, a 44.6% increase from 2024, reflecting significant investment in new product offerings and enhancements.
- For 2026, research and development costs are projected to range from $750 million to $850 million, with a continued focus on innovation and expanding into new indications.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 177.86 |
| Mkt Cap | 21.2 |
| Rev LTM | 3,447 |
| Op Inc LTM | 398 |
| FCF LTM | 523 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 363 |
| CFO LTM | 670 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 483 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 8.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 9.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -0.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 21.2 |
| P/S | 3.8 |
| P/Op Inc | 3.4 |
| P/EBIT | 5.9 |
| P/E | 9.9 |
| P/CFO | 16.9 |
| Total Yield | 1.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.1% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 2.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 22.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 36.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -13.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -11.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -4.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -44.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $212.73 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 30.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/02/2015 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -16.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $203.19 | $203.28 |
| DMA Trend | up | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | 4.7% | 4.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 56.8% | 42.5% |
| Downside Capture | 175.00 | 123.61 |
| Upside Capture | 113.19 | 118.93 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 41.1% | 34.6% |
NTRA Betas & Captures as of 5/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.21 | 1.43 | 1.64 | 1.54 | 1.23 | 1.32 |
| Up Beta | -0.25 | 1.47 | 2.30 | 2.01 | 1.78 | 1.40 |
| Down Beta | 5.97 | 3.05 | 1.69 | 0.64 | 0.62 | 1.13 |
| Up Capture | 8% | 92% | 122% | 145% | 146% | 432% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 24 | 34 | 62 | 134 | 399 |
| Down Capture | -278% | 154% | 141% | 172% | 117% | 106% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 17 | 29 | 62 | 115 | 350 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NTRA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NTRA | 37.5% | 42.5% | 0.87 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 12.4% | 14.6% | 0.58 | 33.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 30.5% | 11.8% | 1.95 | 34.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 35.9% | 26.7% | 1.12 | 14.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 44.5% | 18.9% | 1.81 | -11.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 10.1% | 13.2% | 0.47 | 17.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -32.2% | 41.6% | -0.82 | 20.7% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NTRA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NTRA | 19.1% | 57.0% | 0.53 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 5.0% | 14.7% | 0.16 | 32.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.2% | 17.0% | 0.66 | 42.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.3% | 18.0% | 0.83 | 12.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.4% | 19.4% | 0.42 | 13.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.9% | 18.8% | 0.06 | 31.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 13.0% | 54.6% | 0.43 | 21.2% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NTRA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NTRA | 33.4% | 61.0% | 0.73 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 9.6% | 16.5% | 0.47 | 35.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.9% | 17.9% | 0.76 | 41.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.2% | 16.0% | 0.68 | 8.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 17.9% | 0.34 | 15.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.5% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 31.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.0% | 66.9% | 1.05 | 15.0% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/2/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | -11.6% | -10.4% | |
| 2/26/2026 | -3.7% | -8.8% | -15.5% |
| 11/6/2025 | 0.5% | 1.1% | 18.7% |
| 8/7/2025 | 7.7% | 12.3% | 18.6% |
| 5/8/2025 | -6.5% | -8.1% | 1.0% |
| 2/27/2025 | -0.7% | -9.6% | -8.1% |
| 11/12/2024 | 19.1% | 20.0% | 23.2% |
| 8/8/2024 | 6.4% | 13.5% | 9.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 18 | 13 | 16 |
| # Negative | 7 | 12 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 7.1% | 13.5% | 17.7% |
| Median Negative | -3.7% | -8.4% | -11.3% |
| Max Positive | 19.1% | 28.1% | 44.1% |
| Max Negative | -12.7% | -19.5% | -39.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/08/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/27/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/09/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/28/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/01/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 6/1/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/7/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 2.74 Bil | 2.78 Bil | 2.82 Bil | 4.5% | Raised | Guidance: 2.66 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Gross Margin | 64.0% | 65.0% | 66.0% | 1.6% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 64.0% for 2026 |
| 2026 Selling, General and Administrative Costs | 1.12 Bil | 1.18 Bil | 1.23 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.18 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Research and Development Costs | 800.00 Mil | 850.00 Mil | 900.00 Mil | 6.2% | Raised | Guidance: 800.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/26/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 2.62 Bil | 2.66 Bil | 2.70 Bil | 19.8% | Higher New | Actual: 2.22 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Gross Margin | 63.0% | 64.0% | 65.0% | 1.6% | 1.0% | Higher New | Actual: 63.0% for 2025 |
| 2026 Selling, General and Administrative Costs | 1.12 Bil | 1.18 Bil | 1.23 Bil | 4.0% | Higher New | Actual: 1.13 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Research and Development Costs | 750.00 Mil | 800.00 Mil | 850.00 Mil | 33.3% | Higher New | Actual: 600.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 5/28/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Moshkevich, Solomon | PRESIDENT, CLINICALDIAGNOSTICS | Direct | Sell | 5282026 | 202.84 | 1,652 | 335,091 | 28,527,998 | Form |
| 2 | Fesko, John | PRESIDENT, CHIEF BUS. OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 5282026 | 202.84 | 1,438 | 291,684 | 37,683,984 | Form |
| 3 | Sheena, Jonathan | Caraluna 1 Trust | Sell | 5152026 | 201.57 | 750 | 151,177 | 3,937,061 | Form | |
| 4 | Sheena, Jonathan | Caraluna 2 Trust | Sell | 5152026 | 201.56 | 750 | 151,169 | 3,936,850 | Form | |
| 5 | Sheena, Jonathan | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 208.60 | 3,150 | 657,104 | 52,673,060 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Health Care Resources |
| U.S. National Library of Medicine |
| ClinicalTrials.gov |
| Modern Healthcare |
| Healthcare Dive |
| Fierce Healthcare |
| Health Affairs |
| Health Data Management |
| FDA Tracker |
| Life Sciences Tools & Services Resources |
| GenomeWeb |
| BioSpace |
| The Scientist |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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Core Cache Last Updated: 6/2/2026