Insulet (PODD)
Market Price (2/21/2026): $242.33 | Market Cap: $17.1 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Equipment
Insulet (PODD)
Market Price (2/21/2026): $242.33Market Cap: $17.1 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Equipment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -10%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -85% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 47x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 32x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 69x |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -27% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.8% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% | Key risksPODD key risks include [1] substantial reliance on its single Omnipod system for revenue, Show more. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Wearable Health Devices, Remote Patient Monitoring, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -27% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Wearable Health Devices, Remote Patient Monitoring, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -10%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -85% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 47x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 32x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 69x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.8% |
| Key risksPODD key risks include [1] substantial reliance on its single Omnipod system for revenue, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Reductions Contributed to Negative Sentiment.
Throughout the period, several financial analysts revised their outlooks for Insulet downwards. For example, on February 4, 2026, Stifel Nicolaus cut its price target for Insulet from $370.00 to $350.00. Earlier, on January 12, 2026, Barclays issued an "Underweight" rating on the stock with a price target of $274.00. These downgrades and reductions in price targets likely signaled growing concerns among institutional investors and contributed to a decline in the stock's valuation.
2. Projected Deceleration in Revenue Growth for 2026 Dampened Investor Enthusiasm.
Despite strong performance in 2025, Insulet's management indicated an anticipated deceleration in revenue growth for 2026. The company projected total revenue growth of 20% to 22% for the full year 2026, a notable slowdown compared to the 30.7% growth achieved in 2025. This guidance reflected more challenging year-over-year comparisons due to the anniversary of the U.S. Type 2 Omnipod launch and the annualization of several international rollouts. Even with robust growth, a deceleration can lead to a re-rating of a high-growth stock.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -22.7% change in PODD stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/20/2026 was primarily driven by a -25.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 2202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 313.01 | 241.89 | -22.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,360 | 2,522 | 6.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.0% | 9.8% | -2.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 93.3 | 69.1 | -25.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 70 | 70 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -22.7% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 2/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PODD | -22.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.1% | 29.5% |
| Sector (XLV) | 8.7% | 40.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -16.1% change in PODD stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/20/2026 was primarily driven by a -46.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 2202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 288.40 | 241.89 | -16.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,199 | 2,522 | 14.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 18.3% | 9.8% | -46.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 50.4 | 69.1 | 37.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 70 | 70 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -16.1% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 2/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PODD | -16.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.4% | 24.5% |
| Sector (XLV) | 20.8% | 26.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -13.1% change in PODD stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/20/2026 was primarily driven by a -54.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 1312025 | 2202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 278.38 | 241.89 | -13.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,984 | 2,522 | 27.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 21.2% | 9.8% | -54.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 46.4 | 69.1 | 49.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 70 | 70 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -13.1% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 2/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PODD | -13.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.6% | 40.2% |
| Sector (XLV) | 8.2% | 27.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -15.8% change in PODD stock from 1/31/2023 to 2/20/2026 was primarily driven by a -94.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312023 | 2202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 287.32 | 241.89 | -15.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,243 | 2,522 | 102.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.4% | 9.8% | 622.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 1,187.2 | 69.1 | -94.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 69 | 70 | -1.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -15.8% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 2/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PODD | -15.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.9% | 33.3% |
| Sector (XLV) | 23.1% | 28.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PODD Return | 4% | 11% | -26% | 20% | 9% | -12% | -3% |
| Peers Return | 33% | -32% | 6% | -4% | -8% | -3% | -19% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 0% | 83% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PODD Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 33% | 58% | 42% | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 42% | 48% | 45% | 55% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PODD Max Drawdown | -12% | -30% | -57% | -26% | -9% | -15% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -14% | -45% | -25% | -20% | -34% | -7% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MDT, DXCM, WST, HOLX, TNDM. See PODD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/20/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PODD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -61.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 158.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 678 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -39.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 51 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -33.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 141 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -90.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 928.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,518 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to MDT, DXCM, WST, HOLX, TNDM
In The Past
Insulet's stock fell -61.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/12/2023. A -61.3% loss requires a 158.5% gain to breakeven.
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About Insulet (PODD)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Insulet (PODD):
Like Medtronic, but specializing in user-friendly, tubeless insulin pumps.
The Apple of insulin pumps, known for its discreet, wearable, and user-friendly patch designs.
Like Dexcom, but for automated insulin delivery via a tubeless patch pump instead of glucose monitoring.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Omnipod DASH Insulin Management System: A tubeless, wearable insulin pump controlled by a smartphone-like Personal Diabetes Manager (PDM) to deliver insulin continuously.
- Omnipod 5 Automated Insulin Delivery System: An advanced hybrid closed-loop insulin delivery system that integrates with continuous glucose monitors (CGMs) to automatically adjust insulin delivery based on glucose readings.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Insulet (PODD) primarily sells its Omnipod Insulin Management System directly to individuals with diabetes. While the fulfillment and reimbursement process involves healthcare providers, pharmacies, and third-party payers, Insulet's direct marketing and sales efforts are aimed at the end-users.
The company serves the following categories of customers:
- Individuals with Type 1 Diabetes: This represents the largest segment of insulin pump users, as these individuals require lifelong insulin therapy and benefit significantly from continuous insulin delivery systems like Omnipod for better glucose management.
- Individuals with Type 2 Diabetes: A growing number of individuals with Type 2 diabetes who require intensive insulin therapy (e.g., multiple daily injections) are adopting insulin pump technology to help manage their condition more effectively.
- Parents/Guardians of Pediatric Patients with Diabetes: For children and adolescents living with diabetes, parents or guardians are the primary decision-makers and managers of their child's diabetes care, including the selection and use of insulin delivery devices like the Omnipod system.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Flex Ltd. (FLEX)
- Sanmina Corporation (SANM)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Ashley McEvoy, President and Chief Executive Officer Ms. McEvoy has served as Insulet's President and Chief Executive Officer since April 2025. She previously spent nearly three decades in leadership roles of increasing responsibility at Johnson & Johnson (J&J), concluding her tenure in 2023 as Executive Vice President and Worldwide Chairman of J&J's MedTech business, an organization with 60,000 global employees and over $30 billion in revenue. During her five-year tenure leading MedTech, Ms. McEvoy spearheaded a significant turnaround, tripling revenue growth. Her prior roles at J&J included Company Group Chairman of Consumer Medical Devices, Group Chairman of Vision and Diabetes Care, Worldwide President of Ethicon Products, and President of McNeil Consumer Healthcare. Ms. McEvoy also serves on the Board of Directors of Procter & Gamble. Flavia Pease, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer Ms. Pease became Insulet's Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, effective September 30, 2025. Prior to joining Insulet, she served as Corporate Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Charles River Laboratories from 2022. Before that, Ms. Pease spent 23 years at Johnson & Johnson, holding various senior finance and leadership positions across the Medical Devices and Pharmaceutical segments. Her roles at J&J included Vice President and Group Chief Financial Officer of the global Medical Devices business, where she oversaw financial operations for a $27 billion global portfolio, and Vice President of Finance for Janssen North America. She began her career in investment banking in Brazil and also held positions at SC Johnson. Ms. Pease also served on Insulet's Board of Directors from January 2024 until her appointment as CFO. Eric Benjamin, Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer Mr. Benjamin was appointed Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer in August 2025. He leads the company's growth and innovation engine, overseeing Strategy & Business Development, the Office of the Chief Technology Officer, Research & Development, and the newly created Growth organization. Since joining Insulet in 2015, Mr. Benjamin has been instrumental in transforming the company into a digital-native platform business, launching Omnipod DASH® and Omnipod 5®, strengthening the supply chain, and expanding into the type 2 diabetes market. Before Insulet, he held senior roles in R&D, quality, and operations at Abbott in the U.S. and Europe. John Kapples, Senior Vice President and General Counsel Mr. Kapples has served as Insulet's Senior Vice President and General Counsel since March 2019. From 2015 to 2019, he was Vice President, Secretary, and General Counsel at GCP Applied Technologies, Inc. Prior to that, Mr. Kapples served as Vice President and Corporate Secretary of Covidien plc from 2006 to 2015, which was acquired by Medtronic plc in 2015. At Covidien, he was responsible for building the company's legal structure and compliance framework and advising on strategic transactions. His career also includes roles at Raytheon Company and Sullivan & Worcester LLP. Manoj Raghunandanan, Chief Growth Officer Mr. Raghunandanan was appointed Chief Growth Officer in August 2025. He brings over 20 years of global consumer health leadership experience, primarily from Kenvue (formerly Johnson & Johnson Consumer Health). Most recently, he was the general manager of Kenvue's Northern European business and previously served on its Executive Committee for five years, overseeing a $6 billion global over-the-counter portfolio. Mr. Raghunandanan has held senior leadership roles across the U.S., Europe, and Asia, focusing on building high-performing teams, driving commercial excellence, and scaling global brands.AI Analysis | Feedback
Key Business Risks for Insulet (PODD)
Insulet Corporation (PODD) faces several significant risks that could impact its business, primarily stemming from intense market competition, stringent regulatory and reimbursement challenges, and vulnerabilities within its supply chain and cybersecurity infrastructure.
The most significant risk to Insulet is the **highly competitive landscape within the automated insulin delivery (AID) market and the company's substantial reliance on its Omnipod system.** Insulet operates in a dynamic market with established competitors such as Medtronic and Tandem Diabetes Care, which are continuously innovating and vying for market share. The Omnipod system generates nearly all of Insulet's revenue, making the company particularly vulnerable to any disruptions in sales, increased competitive pressures, or a failure to continually innovate and differentiate its products.
Secondly, **regulatory and reimbursement challenges pose a considerable risk to Insulet's operations and growth.** As a medical device company, Insulet operates in a heavily regulated industry, meaning changes in healthcare laws, reimbursement policies from entities like Medicare, and intellectual property rights can significantly affect its business. Securing and maintaining favorable reimbursement policies and regulatory approvals (such as 510(k) clearances or pre-market approvals) is crucial for market access and international expansion. The company has also faced past scrutiny, including an FDA warning letter concerning certain insulin pumps.
Lastly, **supply chain dependencies, manufacturing challenges, and cybersecurity threats represent notable risks.** Insulet's manufacturing operations and inventory storage are concentrated in a limited number of locations, creating potential vulnerabilities to supply chain disruptions. Issues with contract manufacturers, component suppliers, or adherence to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's quality system regulations could impede production. Furthermore, the increasing connectivity of medical devices introduces inherent cybersecurity and data privacy risks, which require continuous monitoring and mitigation efforts. Macroeconomic factors like currency exchange rate fluctuations also present challenges to Insulet's international growth trajectory.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Beta Bionics' iLet Bionic Pancreas system, which recently received FDA clearance and is beginning its commercial rollout, represents a clear emerging threat. The iLet system features a unique algorithm that significantly simplifies automated insulin delivery by largely eliminating the need for carb counting, requiring only meal announcements from the user. This highly simplified user experience could redefine patient expectations for ease of use in insulin pumps and challenge Insulet's market position by offering a compelling alternative to current automated insulin delivery systems like the Omnipod 5, despite the iLet system being tubed.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The addressable markets for Insulet's main products and services, primarily its Omnipod insulin delivery system, are as follows:
- Insulet estimates its total addressable market for insulin-intensive diabetes (Type 1 and insulin-intensive Type 2) to be approximately 14 million people globally.
- In the U.S., the addressable market for insulin-requiring type 2 diabetes is approximately 6 million people. This includes 2.5 million individuals on insulin-intensive multiple daily injections (MDI) and over 3 million on basal-only therapy.
For the broader insulin pump market, which includes Insulet's offerings:
- The global insulin pump market was valued at approximately $5.6 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach approximately $8.8 billion by 2033, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.1% from 2025 to 2033. Other estimates indicate the global insulin pump market size was approximately $5.90 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach $9.66 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 8.42% from 2025 to 2030. In 2025, the global insulin pump market is estimated to be around $6.25 billion.
- North America holds a significant share of the global insulin pump market, accounting for over 37% of the global revenue in 2025, with a market size of approximately $2.31 billion. In 2024, North America held the largest market share at 45.53%.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Insulet (PODD) is poised for future revenue growth over the next two to three years, driven by several key strategic initiatives and market expansions:
- Expansion into the Type 2 Diabetes Market: Insulet received FDA clearance for its Omnipod 5 system for adults with Type 2 diabetes, significantly expanding its total addressable market. This move allows Insulet to target a much larger patient population, with approximately 6 million people in the U.S. living with insulin-requiring Type 2 diabetes. The company views this as a significant growth opportunity.
- Accelerated International Growth of Omnipod 5: Insulet is focused on driving international expansion with new launches of Omnipod 5 planned in additional countries starting in early 2025. The company has seen robust demand for Omnipod 5 internationally, with international sales growing significantly in recent quarters. This continued global rollout is expected to be a substantial revenue driver.
- New Product Integrations and Enhancements (Omnipod 5 platform advancement): Ongoing product innovation and integration efforts are expected to contribute to revenue growth. Recent milestones include the launch of Omnipod 5 with Dexcom's G7 continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) sensor in several European countries and the U.S., with plans to introduce Omnipod 5 integrated with Abbott's FreeStyle Libre 2 Plus sensor. These integrations enhance the system's capabilities, improve user experience, and expand customer choice.
- Increased Customer Acquisition and Retention: Insulet anticipates continued year-over-year growth in new customer starts in both the U.S. and internationally. This growth is driven by the appeal of the Omnipod 5 platform and increased penetration among users of multiple daily injections (MDI). Efforts to enhance customer experience and expand commercial reach also support this driver.
- Positive Price/Mix Realization: Particularly in international markets, Insulet expects a benefit from positive price/mix realization as customers transition from the Omnipod DASH system to the advanced Omnipod 5. This shift to the newer, more sophisticated product positively impacts average selling prices and revenue per user.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- In March 2025, Insulet's Board of Directors authorized a program to repurchase up to $125 million of common stock through December 31, 2026, intended to offset dilution from stock-based compensation.
- During the nine months ended September 30, 2025, the company repurchased approximately 184 thousand shares for $59.6 million under this program.
- In the second quarter of 2025, Insulet repurchased 93,000 shares for approximately $30 million.
Share Issuance
- For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, Insulet recorded $17.2 million from the exercise of options to purchase common stock.
- The issuance of shares for the employee stock purchase plan contributed $7.1 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025.
- Stock-based compensation expense totaled $42.4 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures were $56.5 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, a decrease from $71.3 million for the same period in 2024.
- The decrease in capital expenditures for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was primarily due to the prior year's significant purchases of machinery, equipment, and tooling for the Malaysia manufacturing facility.
- Capital expenditures are expected to be slightly higher in 2025 compared to the prior year, focusing on supporting manufacturing and global expansion.
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Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 86.15 |
| Mkt Cap | 17.2 |
| Rev LTM | 3,572 |
| Op Inc LTM | 712 |
| FCF LTM | 682 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 557 |
| CFO LTM | 896 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 891 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 19.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 22.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 15.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 17.2 |
| P/S | 4.9 |
| P/EBIT | 23.6 |
| P/E | 32.5 |
| P/CFO | 18.5 |
| Total Yield | 3.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.0% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -1.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 1.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -1.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | -19.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -5.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -6.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -12.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -81.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $241.89 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 17.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/15/2007 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -31.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $273.97 | $304.36 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | down |
| Distance from DMA | -11.7% | -20.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 30.6% | 40.2% |
| Downside Capture | 197.46 | 77.71 |
| Upside Capture | -31.52 | 49.19 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 30.5% | 40.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.20 | 0.18 | 0.82 | 0.64 | 0.82 | 0.84 |
| Up Beta | 2.89 | 1.98 | 1.07 | 0.94 | 0.81 | 0.91 |
| Down Beta | 0.00 | -0.29 | 0.64 | 0.96 | 1.13 | 0.88 |
| Up Capture | -134% | -91% | 15% | 16% | 38% | 36% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 34 | 71 | 142 | 430 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 15 | 27 | 64 | 131 | 383 |
| Down Capture | 88% | 123% | 141% | 68% | 77% | 97% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 9 | 19 | 27 | 54 | 109 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 26 | 34 | 61 | 119 | 368 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PODD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PODD | -14.5% | 40.2% | -0.30 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 8.6% | 17.3% | 0.32 | 27.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.5% | 19.4% | 0.53 | 40.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 74.5% | 25.6% | 2.15 | 0.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.2% | 16.9% | 0.25 | 12.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 7.1% | 16.7% | 0.24 | 29.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -30.6% | 44.9% | -0.68 | 16.7% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PODD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PODD | -3.5% | 42.5% | 0.04 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 7.6% | 14.5% | 0.34 | 39.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.4% | 17.0% | 0.62 | 44.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.6% | 17.1% | 1.08 | 10.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.9% | 19.0% | 0.46 | 9.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 18.8% | 0.17 | 39.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.2% | 57.1% | 0.35 | 20.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PODD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PODD | 25.7% | 42.3% | 0.69 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 11.3% | 16.5% | 0.57 | 39.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.1% | 17.9% | 0.77 | 41.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.8% | 15.6% | 0.79 | 7.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 13.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 7.0% | 20.7% | 0.30 | 33.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.8% | 66.7% | 1.07 | 12.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/18/2026 | 4.8% | ||
| 11/6/2025 | 2.8% | 7.1% | -5.8% |
| 8/7/2025 | 9.5% | 11.3% | 25.7% |
| 5/8/2025 | 20.9% | 25.3% | 18.9% |
| 2/20/2025 | -1.9% | -7.4% | -6.9% |
| 11/7/2024 | 9.4% | 6.6% | 8.2% |
| 7/26/2024 | 1.3% | 3.3% | -3.1% |
| 5/9/2024 | -6.6% | 4.4% | 8.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 14 | 12 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 4.8% | 6.9% | 9.0% |
| Median Negative | -5.1% | -7.7% | -9.5% |
| Max Positive | 22.6% | 25.3% | 38.1% |
| Max Negative | -9.4% | -16.8% | -25.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/09/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/23/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/06/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/24/2022 | 10-K |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Frederick, Wayne Ai | Direct | Sell | 12162025 | 293.09 | 1,851 | 542,510 | 632,488 | Form | |
| 2 | Stonesifer, Timothy C | Direct | Buy | 12082025 | 311.73 | 962 | 299,884 | 1,431,152 | Form | |
| 3 | Singh, Prem | SVP, Global Operations | Direct | Sell | 9092025 | 347.49 | 687 | 238,726 | 1,200,925 | Form |
| 4 | Cousin, Laetitia | SVP, Reg, Quality & Compliance | Direct | Sell | 9092025 | 348.81 | 797 | 278,002 | 1,356,871 | Form |
| 5 | Benjamin, Eric | EVP, CPXO | Direct | Sell | 8222025 | 332.23 | 4,263 | 1,416,296 | 5,560,201 | Form |
PODD Trade Sentinel
Core Investment Debate
Omnipod Growth Durability vs. Tandem's Mobi Threat
BULL VIEW
Omnipod 5's tubeless form factor and pharmacy access create a durable moat. Mobi is a niche product that will not materially slow U.S. new customer starts.
CORE TENSION
Can Insulet maintain hyper-growth in new customer starts, justifying its premium valuation, despite the launch of Tandem's smaller Mobi pump, a direct competitor?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Insulet is winning. It is #1 in U.S. new customer starts, with revenue growth accelerating to 28-29% and gross margins expanding to 72.2%, indicating no current impact from competition.
BEAR VIEW
Tandem's Mobi will prove a 'good enough' alternative, causing a sequential deceleration in Insulet's new customer starts, breaking the growth narrative and compressing the stock's high P/E multiple.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Feb 18, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings Call Watch: U.S. New Customer Starts. Watch for any sequential deceleration from the 'record' pace set in mid-2025 as the first indicator of Tandem's Mobi gaining traction. |
Early May 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Call Watch: International Omnipod Revenue Growth. Must remain above 30% YoY to support the global expansion narrative, which is key to long-term growth durability. |
June 5-8, 2026 | ADA Scientific Sessions Watch: Pivotal clinical data for Tandem's Mobi or Medtronic's 7-day infusion set. Any headline showing superior efficacy or strong patient preference would be a major negative. |
Anytime | Competitor Technology Launch Watch: Press release from Medtronic on U.S. commercial adoption of its 7-day wear Extended Infusion Set, which directly challenges Omnipod's convenience advantage. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2025-08-07 | Q2 2025 Earnings Details: Stock soared after reporting total revenue growth accelerated to 32.9% and a record number of new customer starts, demonstrating strong Omnipod 5 momentum. | Surged +9.5% $277.30 -> $303.55 |
2025-09-26 | General Market/Sector Weakness Details: Stock declined amid broader market volatility and sector rotation, not driven by company-specific news. High-multiple growth stocks were particularly affected during this period. | Slight -1.7% pullback $323.58 -> $318.00 |
2025-11-06 | Q3 2025 Earnings Details: Despite beating estimates and raising guidance, the stock dipped. Revenue grew 29.9% and gross margin expanded to 72.2%, but the stock saw a minor pullback on the news. | Slight -1.1% pullback $323.40 -> $319.82 |
2025-11-19 | Insulet Investor Day Details: Company hosted an investor day, providing long-term strategic updates and financial targets which were positively received by the market. | Rose significantly by 3.9% $333.47 -> $346.36 |
2025-11-20 | Post-Investor Day Profit Taking Details: Following a significant run-up into and after its investor day, the stock experienced a sharp pullback, likely driven by profit-taking rather than fundamental news. | Plummeted 9.7% $346.36 -> $312.89 |
2026-01-27 | J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference Details: Company presented long-term revenue CAGR target of ~20%. The stock pulled back, suggesting investors sought a higher growth outlook given the premium valuation. | Fell notably by 2.4% $271.31 -> $264.91 |
Position Sizing
4%-6%
NORMAL
Stock trades at moderate volatility (2.7x S&P 500), but near-term vol is spiking. While fundamentals are Bullish with a widening moat and high visibility, the expensive valuation justifies a Normal, not Aggressive, position size.
Diversification Alternatives
LLY
SECTORLLY offers exposure to the massive diabetes/obesity theme with a more diversified portfolio and scale, reducing single-product risk vs. PODD. Its GLP-1 franchise provides a powerful, durable growth engine.
DXCM
INDUSTRYA pure-play on the Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) market, which is a structural tailwind for PODD. DXCM is the technology leader in CGM, a non-discretionary medical device with high switching costs.
Stock Conviction
OVERWEIGHT (Score 9-10)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The probability-adjusted skew is well above 2.0x, indicating a highly attractive risk/reward profile. This is driven by the 'WIDENING' competitive moat, strong secular tailwinds in its market, and clear evidence of successful execution in its core growth initiatives (Omnipod 5 adoption and Type 2 market expansion). The primary risk, while tangible, is not yet affecting the leading indicators, warranting a high-conviction stance.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
High-Beta CompounderInsulet is a 'High-Beta Compounder' due to its high revenue growth (accelerating to ~30%), significant market share gains, and a premium valuation (Forward P/E ~44-56x). The investment thesis is predicated on the durability of this growth, driven by product innovation and TAM expansion, justifying its high multiple.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary driver for Insulet is the rapid adoption of its Omnipod 5 tubeless insulin pump, which is taking significant market share from incumbents like Medtronic. This is amplified by the strategic expansion into the vast, underpenetrated insulin-intensive Type 2 diabetes market, which now constitutes over 30% of new U.S. customer starts.
- Total company revenue growth accelerated to 32.9% in Q2 2025, significantly outpacing the insulin pump market's 8-9.7% CAGR.
- Omnipod 5 comprised almost 95% of new U.S. customer starts, demonstrating its status as the preferred product.
- Expansion into the Type 2 market is succeeding, with this segment growing to represent 30% of new U.S. customer starts.
- Gross Margins are best-in-class, expanding to 72.2% in Q3 2025, with operating margin guidance raised to 17-17.5%, showcasing profitable growth.
PRIMARY RISK
The most significant near-term risk is the commercial traction of Tandem Diabetes Care's Mobi pump, launched in the U.S. in February 2024. As the world's smallest durable automated insulin delivery (AID) system, it directly challenges Omnipod's form factor advantage. If Tandem reports faster-than-expected Mobi adoption, it could signal a slowdown in Insulet's critical 'New Customer Starts' KPI, breaking the hyper-growth narrative and causing severe multiple compression.
- Tandem's Mobi pump was commercially launched in the U.S. in February 2024, creating a new direct competitor.
- Positive user survey data for Mobi was presented at the ADA conference in June 2024, indicating high patient satisfaction.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. New Customer Starts | Sequential Growth | This is the primary leading indicator of market share gains and the health of the growth thesis. Any sequential deceleration would be a major red flag regarding competitive intrusion from Tandem's Mobi. |
| International Omnipod Revenue Growth | >30% YoY | International expansion is a key pillar of the growth story. This segment's higher growth rate (guidance 38-39%) needs to be sustained to validate the thesis of a long runway for global penetration. |
| Gross Margin | Stable above 70% | Insulet's best-in-class gross margin underpins its premium valuation and ability to generate free cash flow. Any significant compression would suggest a loss of pricing power or unforeseen manufacturing issues. |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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