Insulet (PODD)
Market Price (4/30/2026): $158.31 | Market Cap: $11.1 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Equipment
Insulet (PODD)
Market Price (4/30/2026): $158.31Market Cap: $11.1 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Equipment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -52% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Wearable Health Devices, Remote Patient Monitoring, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -45%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -122% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 28x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 46x Key risksPODD key risks include [1] substantial reliance on its single Omnipod system for revenue, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -52% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Wearable Health Devices, Remote Patient Monitoring, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -45%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -122% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 28x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 46x |
| Key risksPODD key risks include [1] substantial reliance on its single Omnipod system for revenue, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Voluntary Medical Device Correction and Elevated Safety Concerns.
Insulet initiated a voluntary Medical Device Correction on March 12, 2026, for specific lots of its Omnipod 5 Pods due to a manufacturing defect that could lead to insulin under-delivery. This issue was associated with 29 confirmed Serious Adverse Events. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) subsequently classified this as its most serious type of recall, indicating potential for severe injury or death if affected devices continued to be used. This announcement caused Insulet shares to fall by 6.9% on the day of the initial disclosure.
2. Intensifying Competitive Landscape and Decelerating Growth Forecasts.
The company faces increasing competitive pressure in the insulin pump market, with new hybrid patch devices from competitors like Tandem, Beta Bionics, and MiniMed expected to launch by late 2026. These upcoming products are projected to offer advantages such as longer wear times and higher insulin capacities, potentially challenging Omnipod 5's market position. Analyst firm Rothschild Redburn, for example, downgraded Insulet and lowered its growth forecasts, projecting a deceleration from an approximate 19% compound annual growth rate for fiscal years 2025-2028 to 11% for fiscal years 2027-2030, citing the need for higher spending to maintain market share.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -43.7% change in PODD stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -43.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 284.24 | 160.02 | -43.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,522 | 2,708 | 7.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.8% | 9.1% | -6.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 81.2 | 45.6 | -43.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 70 | 70 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -43.7% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PODD | -43.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.2% | 29.4% |
| Sector (XLV) | -7.3% | 32.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -48.2% change in PODD stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -50.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 308.73 | 160.02 | -48.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,360 | 2,708 | 14.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.0% | 9.1% | -8.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 92.0 | 45.6 | -50.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 70 | 70 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -48.2% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PODD | -48.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.0% | 28.9% |
| Sector (XLV) | 3.5% | 34.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -39.1% change in PODD stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -54.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 262.61 | 160.02 | -39.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,072 | 2,708 | 30.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 20.2% | 9.1% | -54.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 44.0 | 45.6 | 3.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 70 | 70 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -39.1% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PODD | -39.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 29.3% | 36.2% |
| Sector (XLV) | -0.4% | 27.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -49.8% change in PODD stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/29/2026 was primarily driven by a -99.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 318.96 | 160.02 | -49.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,305 | 2,708 | 107.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.4% | 9.1% | 2489.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 4,817.1 | 45.6 | -99.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 69 | 70 | -1.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -49.8% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PODD | -49.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 81.5% | 32.7% |
| Sector (XLV) | 16.0% | 28.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PODD Return | 4% | 11% | -26% | 20% | 9% | -36% | -28% |
| Peers Return | 33% | -32% | 6% | -4% | -8% | -6% | -21% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 4% | 90% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PODD Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 33% | 58% | 42% | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 42% | 48% | 45% | 55% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PODD Max Drawdown | -12% | -30% | -57% | -26% | -9% | -36% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -14% | -45% | -25% | -20% | -34% | -11% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MDT, DXCM, WST, HOLX, TNDM. See PODD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/29/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PODD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -61.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 158.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 678 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -39.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 51 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -33.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 141 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -90.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 928.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,518 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to MDT, DXCM, WST, HOLX, TNDM
In The Past
Insulet's stock fell -61.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/12/2023. A -61.3% loss requires a 158.5% gain to breakeven.
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About Insulet (PODD)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Analogy 1: Keurig for insulin delivery systems.
Analogy 2: Dyson for insulin pumps.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Omnipod System: An integrated insulin delivery system designed for people with insulin-dependent diabetes.
- Omnipod device: A self-adhesive, disposable, tubeless insulin pump worn directly on the body for up to three days.
- Personal Diabetes Manager (PDM): A wireless, handheld device that acts as a controller for the Omnipod device, allowing users to manage their insulin delivery.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Insulet Corporation (PODD) primarily sells its products to other companies through its distribution network and pharmacy channels. Therefore, its major customers are businesses rather than individuals.
Based on its stated sales channels, Insulet's major customer categories, along with examples of public companies that operate within these categories, include:
- Pharmacy Chains: These are major retail pharmacy companies that purchase Insulet's Omnipod systems to make them available for direct dispensing to individuals with insulin-dependent diabetes. Examples of such public companies include:
- CVS Health (CVS)
- Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA)
- Walmart (WMT) - through its in-store pharmacies
- Independent Distributors: These companies specialize in the wholesale distribution of medical devices and supplies. They purchase products from Insulet and then manage the logistics and sales to a wide network of healthcare providers, hospitals, and smaller pharmacies. Examples of such public companies include:
- McKesson Corporation (MCK)
- Cardinal Health (CAH)
- AmerisourceBergen (ABC)
While Insulet also sells directly, the primary channels described indicate a Business-to-Business (B2B) model for its major customer base, with individuals being the ultimate end-users of the Omnipod system.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
```htmlAshley McEvoy
President and Chief Executive Officer
Ms. McEvoy was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of Insulet in April 2025. She brings nearly three decades of healthcare leadership experience, having spent from 1996 to 2023 in various roles of increasing responsibility at Johnson & Johnson. Most recently, she served as Executive Vice President and Worldwide Chairman of Johnson & Johnson's MedTech business, an organization with 60,000 global employees and over $30 billion in revenue. Her previous leadership positions at Johnson & Johnson included Company Group Chairman of Vision and Diabetes Care, Worldwide President of Ethicon Inc., and President of McNeil Consumer Healthcare. Since 2023, Ms. McEvoy has also been a member of the Procter & Gamble Board of Directors.
Flavia Pease
Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Ms. Pease assumed the role of Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer at Insulet in September 2025. Prior to joining Insulet, she was the Corporate Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Charles River Laboratories, a position she held since 2022. Ms. Pease's career also includes over 20 years at Johnson & Johnson, where she held various senior finance and leadership roles. These roles included Vice President and Group Chief Financial Officer of the global Medical Device business, overseeing a $27 billion portfolio, and Vice President of Finance for Janssen North America. She also served on Insulet's Board of Directors from January 2024 through September 2025.
Eric Benjamin
Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer
Mr. Benjamin serves as Insulet's Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer. He previously held the position of Executive Vice President of Innovation, Strategy & Digital Products within the company. Before his tenure at Insulet, Mr. Benjamin gained extensive experience through senior roles in research and development, quality, and operations at Abbott, working in both the U.S. and Europe.
Patrick Crannell
Senior Vice President, International General Manager
Mr. Crannell has been Insulet's Senior Vice President and International General Manager since July 2023, having previously served as Senior Vice President, Head of International since August 2022. With over 25 years of experience leading commercial organizations globally, Mr. Crannell previously served as Vice President of Infusion Therapy and Medical Devices at ICU Medical, where he led a large U.S. team.
Prem Singh
Senior Vice President, Global Operations
Mr. Singh has served as Insulet's Senior Vice President, Global Operations since January 2023. Prior to this role, he was the Group Vice President, Head of Global Supply Chain Operations from December 2021 through December 2022. Before joining Insulet, Mr. Singh held a leadership position as Vice President of Operations and Quality for the Chromatography and Mass Spectrometry Division at Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Insulet Corporation (PODD) primarily revolve around product quality, intense market competition, and a concentrated reliance on its core Omnipod system.
The most significant and immediate risk to Insulet is a **manufacturing defect in its Omnipod 5 Pods, leading to a voluntary recall and heightened regulatory scrutiny**. In March 2026, Insulet initiated a voluntary medical device correction for specific lots of its Omnipod 5 Pods in the United States. This action followed the discovery of a manufacturing defect that could cause a small tear in the internal tubing, potentially leading to insulin leakage and under-delivery. This malfunction can result in elevated blood glucose levels and, in severe cases, diabetic ketoacidosis, a serious medical condition. The company has reported 18 serious adverse events linked to this issue, including hospitalizations, though no fatalities have occurred. While the affected pods represent a small percentage of annual production, this defect raises concerns about product quality, patient safety, potential costs for replacements and support, and ongoing regulatory and legal considerations.
Secondly, Insulet faces **intense competition within the automated insulin delivery (AID) market**. The company's tubeless Omnipod system, while a key differentiator, operates in a dynamic landscape with formidable rivals. Major competitors include Medtronic and Tandem Diabetes Care, who offer comprehensive diabetes solutions and advanced AID systems. Indirect competition also comes from Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) companies like Dexcom and Abbott Laboratories, whose technologies are integral to AID systems. This competitive pressure necessitates continuous innovation and strategic market positioning to maintain Insulet's technological edge and market share.
Finally, a notable risk is Insulet's **heavy reliance on its Omnipod product platform**. The company's financial performance is significantly tied to the success and continued adoption of its Omnipod system. While this focus has driven substantial growth, it exposes Insulet to product-specific market fluctuations, competitive advancements, and any potential issues related to the platform itself, such as the recent manufacturing defect. Diversification of revenue streams, potentially through expanding into non-insulin drug delivery, has been identified as an area that could mitigate this risk in the long term.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
Insulet Corporation's addressable market for its Omnipod System, which provides insulin delivery for people with insulin-dependent diabetes, is estimated to be over $30 billion globally for both Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes. This market represents approximately 14 million potential patients worldwide. The global tubeless insulin pump market, in which Insulet operates, was valued at USD 2.45 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to approximately USD 13.65 billion by 2034. Other estimates place the global tubeless insulin pump market at USD 1.9 billion in 2024, expanding to USD 12.2 billion by 2034. North America held the largest market share in the tubeless insulin pump market in 2024.AI Analysis | Feedback
Insulet Corporation (PODD) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key initiatives:
- Continued Adoption and Penetration of Omnipod 5: Insulet anticipates sustained global demand for its Omnipod 5 Automated Insulin Delivery (AID) System, driving increased customer starts and market share. This includes broader penetration among individuals currently using multiple daily injections (MDI) and gaining market share from competitors in both Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes segments.
- International Expansion of Omnipod 5: The company is actively expanding the commercial availability of Omnipod 5 into new international markets. Recent and planned launches include Australia, Belgium, Canada, Switzerland, Italy, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden, and upcoming expansion into markets such as Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Kuwait.
- Growing Presence in the Type 2 Diabetes Market: Insulet is focused on deepening its penetration within the Type 2 diabetes segment by leveraging clinical data, expanding prescriber education, and targeting high-prescribing primary care physicians. The company has also received an expanded FDA label for Omnipod 5 for Type 2 diabetes.
- Innovation and Enhancements to the Omnipod Platform: Insulet plans to introduce significant enhancements to the Omnipod 5 algorithm in 2026, including a lower 100 mg/dL Target Glucose option and features designed for better glycemic control and improved connectivity. Beyond Omnipod 5, the company is developing Omnipod 6, slated for launch in 2027, and a fully closed-loop system specifically for Type 2 diabetes expected in 2028.
- Expanded Continuous Glucose Monitor (CGM) Integrations: Insulet is broadening the compatibility of Omnipod 5 with leading CGM sensors, including Dexcom G6, G7, and Abbott's FreeStyle Libre 2 Plus. This expanded integration offers greater choice and flexibility to both users and healthcare providers, potentially increasing the addressable market for Omnipod 5.
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Share Repurchases
- In February 2026, Insulet's Board of Directors authorized an increase of $350 million to its existing share repurchase program, bringing the total authorization to $475 million and extending it through December 31, 2027. The company plans to allocate approximately $300 million toward repurchases in the first quarter of 2026.
- As of February 16, 2026, $60 million had been repurchased under the previously authorized program.
- During 2025, Insulet repurchased approximately 184,000 shares for $59.6 million.
Share Issuance
- Insulet's shares outstanding increased by 1.94% in 2022 (from 2021), 5.33% in 2023 (from 2022), and 0.35% in 2024 (from 2023).
- Shares outstanding for the quarter ending September 30, 2025, were 0.071 billion, reflecting a 4.45% decline year-over-year, suggesting the impact of share repurchases.
Outbound Investments
- In February 2023, Insulet acquired the assets of Automated Glucose Control LLC (AGC) for $25 million. This acquisition included a license from the University of California and other intellectual property, which was integral to the development of Insulet's Omnipod® 5 Automated Insulin Delivery system.
Capital Expenditures
- For 2024, capital expenditures were expected to increase compared to 2023, primarily driven by investments in machinery, equipment, and tooling for the new Malaysia manufacturing facility and continuous improvement efforts in other manufacturing locations, as well as investments in information technology infrastructure.
- Capital expenditures were expected to be slightly higher in 2025 compared with 2024, to continue expanding and optimizing manufacturing and supply chain operations and support global expansion.
- In the fourth quarter of 2025, capital expenditures grew meaningfully to $135 million, reflecting continued investment in manufacturing capacity, including further expansion of Malaysia operations and the start of development of a new facility in Costa Rica, which is expected to be operational in 2029.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03312026 | PGNY | Progyny | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | CNC | Centene | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.3% | 2.3% | -0.6% |
| 03272026 | OSCR | Oscar Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.0% | 3.0% | -2.6% |
| 03202026 | WAT | Waters | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.4% | -0.4% | -3.3% |
| 03202026 | GILD | Gilead Sciences | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.6% | 1.6% | -2.2% |
| 03062026 | PODD | Insulet | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -11.5% | -11.5% | -12.2% |
| 05312023 | PODD | Insulet | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -31.1% | -35.8% | -53.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 79.37 |
| Mkt Cap | 21.3 |
| Rev LTM | 3,221 |
| Op Inc LTM | 690 |
| FCF LTM | 458 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 384 |
| CFO LTM | 715 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 712 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 11.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 13.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 16.4% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 5.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 18.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 21.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 21.3 |
| P/S | 4.2 |
| P/Op Inc | 23.8 |
| P/EBIT | 20.1 |
| P/E | 26.6 |
| P/CFO | 15.4 |
| Total Yield | 2.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.9% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -7.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -20.6% |
| 6M Rtn | -12.1% |
| 12M Rtn | -3.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | -49.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -19.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -22.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -18.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -31.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -122.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $160.02 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 11.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/15/2007 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -54.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $218.99 | $283.20 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -26.9% | -43.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 39.8% | 37.4% |
| Downside Capture | 1.62 | 0.58 |
| Upside Capture | 18.08 | 20.59 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 32.5% | 20.0% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.47 | 0.61 | 0.51 | 0.67 | 0.75 | 0.84 |
| Up Beta | 0.95 | -0.68 | 0.45 | 0.54 | 0.75 | 0.88 |
| Down Beta | -0.60 | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.61 | 1.04 | 0.86 |
| Up Capture | 39% | 62% | -4% | 21% | 28% | 33% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 7 | 18 | 25 | 58 | 128 | 379 |
| Down Capture | 130% | 123% | 119% | 111% | 76% | 99% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 15 | 24 | 38 | 68 | 123 | 371 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PODD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PODD | -38.3% | 39.5% | -1.14 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 4.9% | 15.8% | 0.12 | 18.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 31.5% | 12.5% | 1.93 | 20.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 35.2% | 27.2% | 1.09 | 2.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 46.7% | 18.1% | 1.99 | -6.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.8% | 13.4% | 0.65 | 18.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -19.6% | 42.1% | -0.40 | 6.6% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PODD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PODD | -10.8% | 42.3% | -0.14 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 4.7% | 14.6% | 0.15 | 38.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.1% | 0.60 | 43.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.1% | 17.8% | 0.92 | 10.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.6% | 19.1% | 0.63 | 8.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.8% | 0.08 | 38.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 8.1% | 56.2% | 0.36 | 20.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PODD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PODD | 16.9% | 42.4% | 0.51 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 9.0% | 16.5% | 0.44 | 39.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 41.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.4% | 15.9% | 0.70 | 8.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.6% | 17.7% | 0.45 | 12.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.5% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 33.2% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/18/2026 | 4.8% | -0.4% | -6.5% |
| 11/6/2025 | 2.8% | 7.1% | -5.8% |
| 8/7/2025 | 9.5% | 11.3% | 25.7% |
| 5/8/2025 | 20.9% | 25.3% | 18.9% |
| 2/20/2025 | -1.9% | -7.4% | -6.9% |
| 11/7/2024 | 9.4% | 6.6% | 8.2% |
| 7/26/2024 | 1.3% | 3.3% | -3.1% |
| 5/9/2024 | -6.6% | 4.4% | 8.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 14 | 12 |
| # Negative | 9 | 10 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 4.8% | 6.9% | 9.0% |
| Median Negative | -3.6% | -6.8% | -7.0% |
| Max Positive | 22.6% | 25.3% | 38.1% |
| Max Negative | -9.4% | -16.8% | -25.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/09/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/23/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/06/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/18/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue Growth | 25.0% | 26.0% | 27.0% | -1.9% | -0.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 26.5% for Q4 2025 |
| Q1 2026 Share Repurchases | 300.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 20.0% | 21.0% | 22.0% | -26.3% | -7.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 28.5% for 2025 |
| 2026 Adjusted Operating Margin Change | 1.0% | 5.8% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 17.25% for 2025 | ||
| 2026 Adjusted EPS Growth | 25.0% | ||||||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/6/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Revenue Growth | 25.0% | 26.5% | 28.0% | ||||
| 2025 Revenue Growth | 28.0% | 28.5% | 29.0% | 11.8% | 3.0% | Raised | Guidance: 25.5% for 2025 |
| 2025 Operating Margin | 71.0% | ||||||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minogue, Michael R | Trust | Buy | 2262026 | 246.23 | 2,030 | 499,847 | 4,304,839 | Form | |
| 2 | McEvoy, Ashley | President and CEO | Direct | Buy | 2232026 | 239.35 | 4,300 | 1,029,205 | 3,330,795 | Form |
| 3 | Frederick, Wayne AI | Direct | Sell | 12162025 | 293.09 | 1,851 | 542,510 | 632,488 | Form | |
| 4 | Stonesifer, Timothy C | Direct | Buy | 12082025 | 311.73 | 962 | 299,884 | 1,431,152 | Form | |
| 5 | Singh, Prem | SVP, Global Operations | Direct | Sell | 9092025 | 347.49 | 687 | 238,726 | 1,200,925 | Form |
PODD Trade Sentinel
UNDERWEIGHT (Score 3-4)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Despite strong current execution and a clear TAM expansion thesis, the stock receives an UNDERWEIGHT rating. The investment case is hampered by a speculative valuation that offers a poor risk/reward skew. The imminent arrival of direct tubeless competition from Tandem and Medtronic represents a structural threat to Insulet's primary moat, creating significant downside risk that is not adequately compensated by the potential upside.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Primary: High-Beta Compounder, Secondary: Transition / Profit PivotPrimarily a High-Beta Compounder due to its durable 20%+ revenue growth and focus on TAM expansion. Secondarily, it is showing signs of a Profit Pivot with significant operating margin expansion and accelerating free cash flow, indicating a maturation from pure growth to profitable growth.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary driver for Insulet's growth is the significant market expansion into the insulin-intensive Type 2 diabetes population, which increases the Total Addressable Market (TAM) from approximately $9 billion to over $30 billion. This is not a future hope but a current catalyst, with the Type 2 segment already being a significant driver of U.S. new customer starts.
- Total Addressable Market (TAM) expansion from ~$9B to over $30B by targeting the insulin-intensive Type 2 market.
- Over 85% of new U.S. customers are converting from multiple daily injections (MDI), indicating successful market creation.
- Management has guided to strong continued Omnipod revenue growth of 21%-23% for FY2026, driven by this expansion.
- The prescriber base expanded by 62% in 2025, demonstrating growing physician acceptance for this use case.
PRIMARY RISK
The biggest risk to the thesis is the launch of directly competitive tubeless patch pumps by established rivals Tandem (Tubeless Mobi) and Medtronic in the second half of 2026. This would neutralize Insulet's primary product differentiation (the tubeless form factor), potentially leading to market share loss, increased pricing pressure, and a deceleration in new customer starts.
- Tandem has received FDA clearance for a 7-day infusion set and plans to launch its 'Tubeless Mobi' pump in H2 2026.
- Multiple analyst firms downgraded PODD in early 2026, specifically citing the threat of these new competitive devices.
- The American Diabetes Association (ADA) conference in June 2026 is a key catalyst where competitors are expected to showcase their new technology, potentially shifting the market narrative.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| New Customer Starts | Sequential and YoY Growth | This is the primary leading indicator of future recurring revenue and market share momentum. Any deceleration would be a major red flag. |
| Omnipod Revenue Growth (Constant Currency) | >20% | Validates the core thesis of durable, high-growth demand. A drop below the company's long-term target of 20%+ would signal thesis degradation. |
| Gross Margin | Stable above 71% | A key indicator of pricing power. Margin compression would be the first sign that new competition is forcing price concessions. |
TAM Expansion vs. Moat Erosion
BULL VIEW
Continued >20% revenue growth and record new customer starts, proving the Type 2 expansion thesis is overwhelming the forward-looking competitive threat.
CORE TENSION
Bulls see a massive, durable growth runway into the Type 2 diabetes market. Bears see the primary moat—its tubeless monopoly—about to be structurally broken by credible competitors in H2 2026.
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The bull case is winning based on reported Q4 2025 results: Total Omnipod Revenue Growth was 31.3% YoY, and the company achieved record new customer starts for the full year.
BEAR VIEW
Deceleration in new customer starts and gross margin compression below 71% as competitors like Tandem and Medtronic launch their tubeless pumps, forcing a valuation re-rating.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
June 5-8, 2026 | American Diabetes Association (ADA) 2026 Conference Watch: Tandem press release announcing commercial launch date and/or superior clinical data (e.g., 7-day wear) for its 'Tubeless Mobi' pump. |
Early May 2026 | FY26 Q1 Earnings Call Watch: Total Omnipod Revenue Growth must remain above the 20-22% FY26 guidance floor to reaffirm the growth story post-product correction news. |
Late July / Early August 2026 | FY26 Q2 Earnings Call Watch: Gross Margin. Watch for compression below the 71% baseline established in FY2025, which would be the first signal of pre-emptive pricing pressure. |
H2 2026 | Tandem 'Tubeless Mobi' Commercial Launch Watch: Payer coverage announcements and initial patient adoption metrics for the Mobi pump, particularly with its 7-day wear feature. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2025-11-06 | Q3 2025 Earnings Details: Reported strong Total Omnipod Revenue growth of 31.0% YoY, continuing the company's high-growth trajectory. The market reaction was muted. | Slight -1.1% pullback $323.40 -> $319.82 |
2025-11-20 | 2025 Investor Day Details: Company presented its long-range strategic plan. The significant negative stock reaction suggests investors were disappointed with the forward-looking commentary or targets provided. | Plummeted 9.7% $346.36 -> $312.89 |
2025-12-01 | Auditor Change Disclosure Details: Announced the dismissal of Grant Thornton as auditor, to be replaced by PricewaterhouseCoopers, following remediation of a previously disclosed material weakness in internal controls. | Muted (-0.6%) $310.83 -> $309.00 |
2026-02-18 | Q4 2025 Earnings & FY26 Guidance Details: Reported record new customer starts and Q4 Omnipod revenue growth of 31.3% YoY. Guided FY26 revenue growth of 20-22%. Despite strong results, the stock fell. | Fell notably by 3.5% $258.07 -> $249.10 |
2026-03-13 | Voluntary Medical Device Correction Details: Initiated correction for specific Omnipod 5 Pods due to potential insulin leakage from a manufacturing defect, linked to 18 serious adverse events. FDA issued a public alert. | Plummeted 6.9% $236.07 -> $219.84 |
2026-04-29 | New 52-Week Low Details: Stock hit $160.02, its lowest point in the last year, reflecting significant negative market momentum and concern over competitive and product quality risks. | Plummeted 12.5% $182.87 -> $160.02 |
Position Sizing
4%-6%
NORMAL
Stock trades with Moderate volatility (2.5x S&P). While sentiment is Bullish, the Speculative valuation and Contested moat from imminent competition prevent an aggressive position. Cap exposure to Normal (4-6%).
Diversification Alternatives
LLY
SECTORLLY offers exposure to the massive GLP-1 drug market, a different and arguably more dominant force in diabetes care. Its moat is wider and its growth profile less dependent on a single device battle.
HALO
SECTORHALO has a lower-risk, high-margin royalty-based business model. It profits from the broader shift to subcutaneous drug delivery without the manufacturing and commercial risks of a head-to-head device war.
Insulet is re-rating from a niche insulin pump maker for Type 1 diabetes to the standard-of-care for automated insulin delivery, driven by the Omnipod 5's tubeless form factor and its significant expansion into the much larger Type 2 diabetes market.
Filter all news through the lens of market expansion beyond Type 1 diabetes and defending its technology lead in tubeless, automated insulin delivery.
New customer starts growth >20%, particularly from Type 2 patients; successful international launches of Omnipod 5 in new, large markets like Spain; FDA clearance for next-generation products (Omnipod 6); competitor announcements of delays or inferior clinical data for their patch pumps.
Slowing new customer starts; significant pricing pressure from pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) or government payers; a competitor (Tandem, Medtronic) launching a compelling, reliable tubeless pump; any delay in the Omnipod 6 or Type 2 Fully Closed Loop pivotal trials or FDA filings.
Quarterly fluctuations in Drug Delivery segment revenue; minor algorithm updates that do not fundamentally change time-in-range outcomes; competitor announcements for traditional tubed pumps; early-stage pipeline announcements for non-insulin drug delivery.
Repricing Catalyst
The primary catalyst is the penetration of the largely untapped Type 2 diabetes market with the Omnipod 5 system. This expands Insulet's Total Addressable Market (TAM) from ~$9B to over $30B. Success is measured by the growth rate of new customer starts from the Type 2 segment, which is already a significant driver of U.S. growth.
U.S. Omnipod Insulin Pumps
$1.9B TTM (70% of Total) · 71.6% MarginWhat It Is
Omnipod 5 Automated Insulin Delivery (AID) System, Omnipod DASH System.
Who Pays & How
Revenue is concentrated in pharmaceutical distributors and pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) who are paid by insurers and patients. Patients choose Omnipod for its tubeless form factor, which eliminates tubing and provides greater discretion and freedom compared to traditional pumps. The system's pharmacy access model ('pay-as-you-go') offers lower upfront costs and no long-term commitment, reducing barriers to adoption.
Competition
International Omnipod Insulin Pumps
$0.8B TTM (28% of Total) · 71.6% MarginWhat It Is
Omnipod 5 Automated Insulin Delivery (AID) System, Omnipod DASH System.
Who Pays & How
National health systems, insurers, and patients in 24 countries outside the U.S. pay for the system for the same reasons as U.S. customers: a tubeless form factor that simplifies diabetes management and improves quality of life.
Competition
Drug Delivery (Contract Manufacturing)
$0.0B TTM (2% of Total) · 71.6% MarginWhat It Is
Customized Pod-based technology for the delivery of subcutaneous drugs for pharmaceutical and biotechnology company partners.
Who Pays & How
Pharmaceutical partners pay Insulet to leverage its proprietary Pod technology for delivering non-insulin drugs, avoiding the need to develop their own delivery system.
Competition
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