Tearsheet

Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $22.41 | Market Cap: $1.5 Bil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Equipment

Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $22.41
Market Cap: $1.5 Bil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Health Care Equipment

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -37%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -55%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -117%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -176 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -17%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Diabetes Management, Remote Patient Monitoring, Show more.
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13%
Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.8%
2   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -29%
3   Key risks
TNDM key risks include [1] eroding U.S. Show more.
0 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -37%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Diabetes Management, Remote Patient Monitoring, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -55%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -117%
3 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13%
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -176 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -17%
5 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.8%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -29%
7 Key risks
TNDM key risks include [1] eroding U.S. Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

TNDM Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Analyst Upgrades and Increased Price Targets.

Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM) experienced a series of positive revisions from analyst firms in late 2025. For example, on December 16, 2025, Baird upgraded TNDM to an "Outperform" rating and substantially raised its price target from $18.00 to $30.00, representing a 66.67% increase. Similarly, on December 17, 2025, Canaccord Genuity maintained its "Buy" rating and increased its price target to $35.00 from $24.00, a 45.83% rise. Other firms, including Citigroup and Morgan Stanley, also raised their price targets on TNDM shares in December 2025.

2. Strong Q3 2025 Financial Performance.

The company reported Q3 CY2025 financial results on November 6, 2025, which exceeded market expectations for revenue. Tandem Diabetes Care's sales increased by 2.2% year-over-year to $249.3 million, and its GAAP loss per share was better than analyst consensus estimates. This positive earnings report contributed to a 17.5% jump in the stock price.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
TNDM Return61%57%-70%-34%22%-37%-62%
Peers Return37%27%-3%11%4%15%125%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
TNDM Win Rate67%67%42%33%50%42% 
Peers Win Rate60%57%52%47%52%55% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
TNDM Max Drawdown-21%-20%-76%-68%-25%-72% 
Peers Max Drawdown-22%-9%-30%-26%-17%-12% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PODD, MDT, DXCM, ABT, LLY. See TNDM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventTNDMS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-90.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven972.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-47.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven90.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven54 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-91.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1127.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven262 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-43.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven78.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven122 days1,480 days

Compare to EYE, NVCR, STAA, OMI, DAVI


In The Past

Tandem Diabetes Care's stock fell -90.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/28/2021. A -90.7% loss requires a 972.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM)

Better Bets than Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to TNDM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.8%16.8%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-6.4%-6.4%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.2%5.2%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.4%3.4%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.4%14.4%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.8%16.8%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-6.4%-6.4%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.2%5.2%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.4%3.4%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.4%14.4%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Tandem Diabetes Care

Peers to compare with:

Financials

TNDMPODDMDTDXCMABTLLYMedian
NameTandem D.Insulet MedtronicDexCom Abbott L.Eli Lilly 
Mkt Price22.42289.5798.3065.75126.711,041.79112.50
Mkt Cap1.520.4126.025.8220.7935.475.9
Rev LTM1,0072,52234,7584,30143,84353,25819,529
Op Inc LTM-1764376,7196877,71322,8823,703
FCF LTM-694085,2065716,917-50489
FCF 3Y Avg-432044,9175675,965-156386
CFO LTM-95347,1139889,11910,9384,050
CFO 3Y Avg-73386,6268848,1327,2303,755

Growth & Margins

TNDMPODDMDTDXCMABTLLYMedian
NameTandem D.Insulet MedtronicDexCom Abbott L.Eli Lilly 
Rev Chg LTM17.9%27.1%5.3%9.3%6.4%36.8%13.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg8.7%26.6%4.1%17.3%-0.6%23.4%13.0%
Rev Chg Q2.2%29.9%6.6%15.2%6.9%37.6%11.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.5%6.9%1.6%3.7%1.7%8.7%2.7%
Op Mgn LTM-17.5%17.3%19.3%16.0%17.6%43.0%17.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-23.4%13.9%18.6%15.8%16.3%35.6%16.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.4%0.1%-0.1%0.7%0.2%1.8%0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM-0.9%21.2%20.5%23.0%20.8%20.5%20.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-0.9%15.8%19.9%23.2%19.5%17.8%18.6%
FCF/Rev LTM-6.8%16.2%15.0%13.3%15.8%-0.1%14.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-4.9%8.7%14.8%14.9%14.3%0.5%11.5%

Valuation

TNDMPODDMDTDXCMABTLLYMedian
NameTandem D.Insulet MedtronicDexCom Abbott L.Eli Lilly 
Mkt Cap1.520.4126.025.8220.7935.475.9
P/S0.88.63.66.15.312.95.7
P/EBIT-4.159.719.732.927.038.629.9
P/E-4.088.226.546.216.749.636.3
P/CFO-93.440.717.726.725.662.626.2
Total Yield-24.8%1.1%6.6%2.2%7.7%2.7%2.5%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%2.9%0.0%1.7%0.7%0.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-4.1%1.0%4.3%2.0%3.0%0.1%1.5%
D/E0.50.00.20.10.10.10.1
Net D/E0.20.00.2-0.00.00.10.0

Returns

TNDMPODDMDTDXCMABTLLYMedian
NameTandem D.Insulet MedtronicDexCom Abbott L.Eli Lilly 
1M Rtn22.2%-11.7%2.1%12.4%-2.6%2.0%2.0%
3M Rtn84.1%-10.1%4.7%-14.0%-5.1%37.3%-0.2%
6M Rtn9.9%-4.0%16.5%-18.8%-3.4%33.2%3.2%
12M Rtn-34.5%10.0%24.8%-15.5%14.0%34.8%12.0%
3Y Rtn-45.9%-3.2%41.5%-42.6%25.6%196.4%11.2%
1M Excs Rtn21.5%-12.5%1.4%11.7%-3.3%1.2%1.3%
3M Excs Rtn68.0%-14.5%2.3%-14.6%-6.8%35.4%-2.3%
6M Excs Rtn-2.5%-16.4%4.1%-31.2%-15.8%20.8%-9.2%
12M Excs Rtn-42.4%-3.6%12.0%-25.9%2.8%21.9%-0.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-117.1%-72.2%-32.2%-112.1%-45.8%122.1%-59.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Supplies and other407373   
Pump366432416315248
Net revenue recognized (deferred) for Tandem Choice program-25-4   
Pump rebate 0   
Cartridges  875537
Infusion sets  19712877
Other  211
Total748801703499362


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity8,753,315
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-0.4%
Average Daily Volume2,801,803
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.12
Basic Shares Quantity67,652,000
Short % of Basic Shares12.9%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/6/202522.0%31.5%53.3%
8/6/2025-19.9%-22.7%-12.6%
2/26/2025-35.2%-43.1%-41.0%
11/6/2024-2.7%-13.3%-12.1%
8/1/202418.3%4.7%23.5%
5/2/202422.3%20.5%42.2%
2/21/202410.9%17.9%41.3%
11/1/2023-14.4%-12.6%19.4%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive546
# Negative9108
Median Positive18.3%19.2%32.4%
Median Negative-15.0%-18.1%-24.8%
Max Positive22.3%31.5%53.3%
Max Negative-35.2%-43.1%-41.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025430202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024226202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241106202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023221202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231101202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022222202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221102202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022504202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021222202210-K 12/31/2021