Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $20.08 | Market Cap: $1.4 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Equipment
Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $20.08Market Cap: $1.4 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -37% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -50%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -124% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -176 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -17% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Diabetes Management, Remote Patient Monitoring, Show more. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.8% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -29% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -37% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Diabetes Management, Remote Patient Monitoring, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -50%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -124% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -176 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -17% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.8% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -29% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TNDM Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
For the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM) experienced a notable stock movement of 59.3% due to several key factors:
**1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Performance.** Tandem Diabetes Care reported third-quarter 2025 financial results on November 6, 2025, which exceeded market revenue expectations. The company posted sales of $249.25 million, a 2.2% year-over-year increase, surpassing analysts' estimates. This positive earnings report led to an approximate 16% surge in the stock during after-hours trading.
**2. Positive Analyst Revisions and Price Target Increases.** Throughout October, November, and December 2025, several financial analysts upgraded their price targets and maintained favorable ratings for Tandem Diabetes Care. For instance, on December 2, 2025, Morgan Stanley significantly raised its price target by 35.29%, from $17.00 to $23.00, while maintaining an 'Equal-Weight' rating. Other firms like Truist Securities, Barclays, and Wells Fargo also increased their price targets for TNDM in November 2025.
**3. Expansion of Product Offerings and Market Reach.** Management highlighted the successful modernization of U.S. commercial operations, increased pricing contributions, and early adoption of new product offerings, including the t:slim and Mobi pump platforms. The company also signaled a strategic focus on expanding into the Type 2 diabetes market, which is projected to double its addressable market in the U.S.
**4. FDA Clearances for Enhanced Technology.** Tandem Diabetes Care received significant regulatory approvals during this period. The Tandem Mobi system received FDA clearance for use with Android smartphones in November 2025, enhancing its compatibility and user convenience. Additionally, the FDA clearance for Control-IQ+ technology for Type 2 diabetes, announced in February 2025 and available by March 2025, expanded the company's advanced insulin delivery system to a broader patient population. The new Mobi Mobile App also received FDA clearance.
**5. Reaffirmation of Strong Full-Year 2025 Revenue Guidance.** Despite earlier challenges, Tandem Diabetes Care consistently reaffirmed its full-year 2025 financial guidance, projecting approximately $1 billion in worldwide sales. This reiterated outlook provided investors with confidence in the company's ability to achieve significant sales milestones and sustained growth.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TNDM Return | 61% | 57% | -70% | -34% | 22% | -46% | -67% |
| Peers Return | 174% | 6% | -31% | -41% | -1% | 8% | 27% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TNDM Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 42% | 33% | 50% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 73% | 50% | 42% | 40% | 46% | 42% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TNDM Max Drawdown | -21% | -20% | -76% | -68% | -25% | -72% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -35% | -17% | -48% | -56% | -34% | -45% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: EYE, STAA, NVCR, OMI, DAVI. See TNDM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TNDM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -90.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 972.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -47.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 90.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 54 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -91.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1127.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 262 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -43.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 78.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 122 days | 1480 days |
Compare to EYE, STAA, NVCR, OMI, DAVI
In The Past
Tandem Diabetes Care's stock fell -90.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/28/2021. A -90.7% loss requires a 972.9% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TNDM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.0% | 10.0% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.9% | 6.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.9% | 8.9% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.0% | 10.0% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.9% | 6.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.9% | 8.9% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Tandem Diabetes Care
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 19.93 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.3 |
| Rev LTM | 1,007 |
| Op Inc LTM | -82 |
| FCF LTM | -65 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -10 |
| CFO LTM | -29 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 8 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 11.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -17.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -6.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -0.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -6.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -4.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.3 |
| P/S | 1.2 |
| P/EBIT | -4.1 |
| P/E | -8.1 |
| P/CFO | -29.1 |
| Total Yield | -12.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -4.1% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -1.2% |
| 12M Rtn | -40.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | -58.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -6.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -16.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -48.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -128.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2212024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2222023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2222022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |