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Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $20.08 | Market Cap: $1.4 Bil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Equipment

Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $20.08
Market Cap: $1.4 Bil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Health Care Equipment

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -37%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -50%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -124%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -176 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -17%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Diabetes Management, Remote Patient Monitoring, Show more.
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13%
Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.8%
2   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -29%
0 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -37%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Diabetes Management, Remote Patient Monitoring, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -50%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -124%
3 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13%
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -176 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -17%
5 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.8%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -29%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

TNDM Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

For the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM) experienced a notable stock movement of 59.3% due to several key factors: **1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Performance.** Tandem Diabetes Care reported third-quarter 2025 financial results on November 6, 2025, which exceeded market revenue expectations. The company posted sales of $249.25 million, a 2.2% year-over-year increase, surpassing analysts' estimates. This positive earnings report led to an approximate 16% surge in the stock during after-hours trading.

**2. Positive Analyst Revisions and Price Target Increases.** Throughout October, November, and December 2025, several financial analysts upgraded their price targets and maintained favorable ratings for Tandem Diabetes Care. For instance, on December 2, 2025, Morgan Stanley significantly raised its price target by 35.29%, from $17.00 to $23.00, while maintaining an 'Equal-Weight' rating. Other firms like Truist Securities, Barclays, and Wells Fargo also increased their price targets for TNDM in November 2025.

**3. Expansion of Product Offerings and Market Reach.** Management highlighted the successful modernization of U.S. commercial operations, increased pricing contributions, and early adoption of new product offerings, including the t:slim and Mobi pump platforms. The company also signaled a strategic focus on expanding into the Type 2 diabetes market, which is projected to double its addressable market in the U.S.

**4. FDA Clearances for Enhanced Technology.** Tandem Diabetes Care received significant regulatory approvals during this period. The Tandem Mobi system received FDA clearance for use with Android smartphones in November 2025, enhancing its compatibility and user convenience. Additionally, the FDA clearance for Control-IQ+ technology for Type 2 diabetes, announced in February 2025 and available by March 2025, expanded the company's advanced insulin delivery system to a broader patient population. The new Mobi Mobile App also received FDA clearance.

**5. Reaffirmation of Strong Full-Year 2025 Revenue Guidance.** Despite earlier challenges, Tandem Diabetes Care consistently reaffirmed its full-year 2025 financial guidance, projecting approximately $1 billion in worldwide sales. This reiterated outlook provided investors with confidence in the company's ability to achieve significant sales milestones and sustained growth.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
TNDM Return61%57%-70%-34%22%-46%-67%
Peers Return174%6%-31%-41%-1%8%27%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
TNDM Win Rate67%67%42%33%50%30% 
Peers Win Rate73%50%42%40%46%42% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
TNDM Max Drawdown-21%-20%-76%-68%-25%-72% 
Peers Max Drawdown-35%-17%-48%-56%-34%-45% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: EYE, STAA, NVCR, OMI, DAVI. See TNDM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventTNDMS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-90.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven972.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-47.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven90.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven54 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-91.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1127.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven262 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-43.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven78.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven122 days1480 days

Compare to EYE, STAA, NVCR, OMI, DAVI


In The Past

Tandem Diabetes Care's stock fell -90.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/28/2021. A -90.7% loss requires a 972.9% gain to breakeven.

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About Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM)

Better Bets than Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to TNDM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.0%10.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.7%-7.7%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.9%6.9%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.9%8.9%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.0%10.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.7%-7.7%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.9%6.9%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.9%8.9%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Tandem Diabetes Care

Peers to compare with:

Financials

TNDMEYESTAANVCROMIDAVIMedian
NameTandem D.National.Staar Su.NovoCure Owens & .Davion H. 
Mkt Price19.9328.5226.3711.812.60-19.93
Mkt Cap1.32.31.31.30.2-1.3
Rev LTM1,0071,92122464212,727-1,007
Op Inc LTM-17649-82-177335--82
FCF LTM-6983-44-65-362--65
FCF 3Y Avg-4351-10-7847--10
CFO LTM-9163-29-34-99--29
CFO 3Y Avg-71468-45273-8

Growth & Margins

TNDMEYESTAANVCROMIDAVIMedian
NameTandem D.National.Staar Su.NovoCure Owens & .Davion H. 
Rev Chg LTM17.9%6.3%-32.6%11.2%92.4%-11.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg8.7%0.4%-2.3%6.2%20.2%-6.2%
Rev Chg Q2.2%7.9%-55.2%7.8%1.5%-2.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.5%1.9%-19.6%1.9%0.1%-0.5%
Op Mgn LTM-17.5%2.6%-36.4%-27.5%2.6%--17.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-23.4%1.7%-6.7%-33.2%2.8%--6.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.4%0.2%-20.2%-0.1%-0.0%--0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM-0.9%8.5%-12.7%-5.4%-0.8%--0.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-0.9%8.5%1.2%-8.1%3.1%-1.2%
FCF/Rev LTM-6.8%4.3%-19.5%-10.1%-2.8%--6.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-4.9%2.9%-5.2%-13.8%0.7%--4.9%

Valuation

TNDMEYESTAANVCROMIDAVIMedian
NameTandem D.National.Staar Su.NovoCure Owens & .Davion H. 
Mkt Cap1.32.31.31.30.2-1.3
P/S0.81.23.72.30.0-1.2
P/EBIT-4.186.9-10.2-11.4-1.2--4.1
P/E-4.0-1,002.0-8.7-8.1-0.3--8.1
P/CFO-93.414.2-29.1-41.9-3.7--29.1
Total Yield-24.8%-0.1%-11.5%-12.3%-361.3%--12.3%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-4.1%3.3%-1.6%-4.8%-19.0%--4.1%
D/E0.50.30.00.65.9-0.5
Net D/E0.20.3-0.2-0.25.8-0.2

Returns

TNDMEYESTAANVCROMIDAVIMedian
NameTandem D.National.Staar Su.NovoCure Owens & .Davion H. 
1M Rtn38.8%8.1%4.4%-3.4%-24.6%-4.4%
3M Rtn61.4%25.1%-3.5%-2.2%-52.6%--2.2%
6M Rtn-1.2%36.5%58.2%-29.4%-61.0%--1.2%
12M Rtn-40.3%151.5%-0.5%-61.3%-81.9%--40.3%
3Y Rtn-53.4%-29.5%-58.4%-85.2%-87.6%--58.4%
1M Excs Rtn38.8%8.1%4.4%-3.4%-24.6%-4.4%
3M Excs Rtn55.5%18.1%-10.4%-6.8%-57.2%--6.8%
6M Excs Rtn-16.0%21.8%43.5%-44.1%-75.7%--16.0%
12M Excs Rtn-48.5%122.2%-22.9%-54.6%-94.2%--48.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-124.4%-100.8%-128.1%-155.9%-159.2%--128.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Supplies and other407373   
Pump366432416315248
Net revenue recognized (deferred) for Tandem Choice program-25-4   
Pump rebate 0   
Cartridges  875537
Infusion sets  19712877
Other  211
Total748801703499362


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity8,787,092
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120250.2%
Average Daily Volume2,842,224
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.09
Basic Shares Quantity67,652,000
Short % of Basic Shares13.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025430202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024226202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241106202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023221202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231101202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022222202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221102202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022504202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021222202210-K 12/31/2021