National Healthcare (NHC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $137.25 | Market Cap: $2.1 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Facilities
National Healthcare (NHC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $137.25Market Cap: $2.1 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Facilities
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.4%, Dividend Yield is 2.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.3%, FCF Yield is 7.8% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.2%, Dist 3Y High is -0.2% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Geriatric Care, and Remote Patient Monitoring. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.4%, Dividend Yield is 2.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.3%, FCF Yield is 7.8% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Geriatric Care, and Remote Patient Monitoring. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.2%, Dist 3Y High is -0.2% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
NHC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining why National Healthcare (NHC) stock likely moved by approximately 22% between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025:
1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Performance: National HealthCare Corporation reported robust third-quarter 2025 financial results on November 7, 2025, with net operating revenues increasing by 12.5% compared to the prior year. Adjusted net income for the quarter also saw a significant rise of 24.3%, indicating strong operational performance.
2. Positive Contribution from Strategic Acquisitions: The strategic acquisition of White Oak Management, Inc., completed on August 1, 2024, continued to positively impact NHC's financial results in 2025, contributing to revenue growth in both the second and third quarters. The acquisition added 22 healthcare operations to NHC's portfolio, enhancing its scale and revenue base.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NHC Return | -21% | 5% | -9% | 61% | 19% | 30% | 88% |
| Peers Return | 13% | 5% | 9% | -1% | -12% | -15% | -4% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NHC Win Rate | 25% | 42% | 42% | 67% | 58% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 15% | 15% | 15% | 10% | 6% | 25% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NHC Max Drawdown | -34% | -4% | -13% | -12% | -5% | -16% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -16% | -0% | -4% | -5% | -13% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ACHC, AMTU, AVG, MCTA, SRTA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NHC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 266 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -35.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 54.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1362 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -25.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 205 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -37.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1958 days | 1480 days |
Compare to ACHC, AMTU, AVG, MCTA, SRTA
In The Past
National Healthcare's stock fell -33.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/18/2021. A -33.8% loss requires a 51.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NHC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for National Healthcare
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 14.69 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.7 |
| Rev LTM | 1,501 |
| Op Inc LTM | 124 |
| FCF LTM | -20 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -32 |
| CFO LTM | 181 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 133 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -7.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -7.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.7 |
| P/S | 1.0 |
| P/EBIT | 10.6 |
| P/E | 19.7 |
| P/CFO | 8.5 |
| Total Yield | 6.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -0.5% |
| D/E | 0.6 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -12.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 7.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -0.8% |
| 12M Rtn | -26.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 33.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -12.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 0.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -15.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -39.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -41.2% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inpatient services | 957 | 912 | 932 | 931 | 894 |
| Homecare and hospice services | 132 | 129 | 97 | 52 | 55 |
| All Other | 53 | 45 | 45 | 46 | 48 |
| Total | 1,142 | 1,086 | 1,074 | 1,028 | 996 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inpatient services | 42 | 10 | 61 | 58 | 52 |
| Homecare and hospice services | 24 | 22 | 19 | 2 | 3 |
| All Other | -10 | 0 | -30 | -11 | -6 |
| Total | 57 | 32 | 51 | 48 | 49 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2162024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2172023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2182022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |