TransMedics (TMDX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $137.75 | Market Cap: $4.7 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Equipment
TransMedics (TMDX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $137.75Market Cap: $4.7 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 41% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 36x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 42x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% | Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 20% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine, Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Remote Patient Monitoring, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 41% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine, Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Remote Patient Monitoring, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 36x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 42x |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 20% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TMDX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
TransMedics (TMDX) stock experienced positive movements, driven by a series of strong financial and operational results in recent reporting periods.
1. Strong Financial Performance in Q4 2024 and Full Year 2024.
TransMedics reported robust financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024. The company's total revenue reached $121.6 million in Q4 2024, a 50% increase compared to Q4 2023, and $441.5 million for the full year 2024, representing an 83% increase over 2023. Additionally, TransMedics achieved net income of $6.9 million in Q4 2024 and $35.5 million for the full year 2024, demonstrating significant profitability.
2. Significant Growth in OCS Cases and Market Share.
The company's Organ Care System (OCS) technology saw substantial adoption, with 3,715 U.S. OCS cases completed in 2024, a 58% increase from the previous year. This expanded utilization contributed to TransMedics achieving an overall OCS market share of 20.9% across all three organs (heart, lung, and liver) in 2024, up from 13.8% in 2023.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TMDX Return | 5% | -4% | 222% | 28% | -21% | 127% | 646% |
| Peers Return | 27% | 15% | -22% | 0% | 1% | 14% | 32% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TMDX Win Rate | 42% | 50% | 67% | 58% | 50% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 40% | 40% | 27% | 35% | 27% | 30% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TMDX Max Drawdown | -45% | -11% | -34% | -40% | -25% | -9% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -35% | -3% | -29% | -26% | -26% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LMAT, SRDX, GPRO, DAVI, EMI. See TMDX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TMDX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -73.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 280.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 163 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -48.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 92.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 309 days | 148 days |
Compare to LMAT, SRDX, GPRO, DAVI, EMI
In The Past
TransMedics's stock fell -73.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/22/2021. A -73.7% loss requires a 280.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TMDX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.0% | 10.0% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.9% | 6.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.9% | 8.9% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.0% | 10.0% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.9% | 6.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.9% | 8.9% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for TransMedics
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 84.92 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.3 |
| Rev LTM | 404 |
| Op Inc LTM | 25 |
| FCF LTM | 31 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -28 |
| CFO LTM | 36 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 24 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 3.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -1.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -4.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.3 |
| P/S | 5.1 |
| P/EBIT | 12.1 |
| P/E | 17.2 |
| P/CFO | 8.0 |
| Total Yield | -0.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -1.6% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 25.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 7.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 48.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 85.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 21.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -6.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 36.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 22.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10292025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10292024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Hassanein Waleed H | President & CEO | 11182025 | Buy | 114.00 | 8,775 | 1,000,350 | 56,431,026 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |