Tearsheet

TransMedics (TMDX)


Market Price (11/16/2025): $115.16 | Market Cap: $3.9 Bil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Equipment

TransMedics (TMDX)


Market Price (11/16/2025): $115.16
Market Cap: $3.9 Bil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Health Care Equipment

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 41%
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 37x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 43x
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%
  Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 22%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine, Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Remote Patient Monitoring, Show more.
  
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 41%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine, Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Remote Patient Monitoring, Show more.
3 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 37x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 43x
4 Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 22%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

TMDX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the approximate -3.3% movement in TransMedics (TMDX) stock from July 31, 2025, to November 15, 2025:

1. Q3 2025 Revenue Miss: TransMedics reported third-quarter 2025 revenue of $143.8 million, which, despite representing a 32% increase year-over-year, fell slightly short of analyst consensus estimates that ranged from $145.26 million to $148.16 million.

2. Immediate Negative Market Reaction to Mixed Q3 Results: Following the Q3 2025 earnings release on October 29, 2025, the stock experienced an immediate negative reaction in after-hours trading, trading down approximately 3.2%. This suggests that the market's focus was predominantly on the revenue shortfall, overshadowing the significant beat on earnings per share.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
TMDX Return5%-4%222%28%-21%84%505%
Peers Return22%12%-18%-16%-15%4%-17%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
TMDX Win Rate42%50%67%58%50%60% 
Peers Win Rate32%32%30%37%28%49% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
TMDX Max Drawdown-45%-11%-34%-40%-25%-9% 
Peers Max Drawdown-28%-3%-23%-37%-37%-28% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LMAT, SRDX, GPRO, CUPR, MHUA. See TMDX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/14/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventTMDXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-73.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven280.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven163 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-48.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven92.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven309 days148 days

Compare to LMAT, SRDX, GPRO, CUPR, MHUA


In The Past

TransMedics's stock fell -73.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/22/2021. A -73.7% loss requires a 280.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About TransMedics (TMDX)

Better Bets than TransMedics (TMDX)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to TMDX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
GDRX_10312025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG10312025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
-11.9%-11.9%-11.9%
DXCM_10312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10312025DXCMDexComMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.3%-0.3%-5.8%
ACHC_10242025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10242025ACHCAcadia HealthcareDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-31.5%-31.5%-31.5%
PBH_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025PBHPrestige Consumer HealthcareDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.6%-1.6%-1.9%
REGN_10032025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10032025REGNRegeneron PharmaceuticalsDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
15.6%15.6%-7.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
GDRX_10312025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG10312025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
-11.9%-11.9%-11.9%
DXCM_10312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10312025DXCMDexComMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.3%-0.3%-5.8%
ACHC_10242025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10242025ACHCAcadia HealthcareDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-31.5%-31.5%-31.5%
PBH_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025PBHPrestige Consumer HealthcareDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.6%-1.6%-1.9%
REGN_10032025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10032025REGNRegeneron PharmaceuticalsDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
15.6%15.6%-7.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for TransMedics

Financials

TMDXLMATSRDXGPROCUPRMHUAMedian
NameTransMed.LeMaitre.SurmodicsGoPro Cuprina Meihua I. 
Mkt Price115.0188.4441.611.580.730.2521.59
Mkt Cap3.92.00.60.3--1.3
Rev LTM566241121651--404
Op Inc LTM9662-12-89--25
FCF LTM12166-4-65--31
FCF 3Y Avg-5541-2-59---28
CFO LTM17873-2-61--36
CFO 3Y Avg63481-56--24

Growth & Margins

TMDXLMATSRDXGPROCUPRMHUAMedian
NameTransMed.LeMaitre.SurmodicsGoPro Cuprina Meihua I. 
Rev Chg LTM41.2%13.1%-0.0%-27.4%--6.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg105.9%14.6%8.6%-17.3%--11.6%
Rev Chg Q32.2%11.4%-2.6%-37.1%--4.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM6.6%2.7%-0.6%-12.9%--1.0%
Op Mgn LTM16.9%25.7%-10.2%-13.7%--3.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg1.6%22.4%-5.1%-10.4%---1.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM2.5%2.4%0.0%-2.9%--1.2%
CFO/Rev LTM31.4%30.4%-1.6%-9.4%--14.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg9.2%21.8%0.6%-6.9%--4.9%
FCF/Rev LTM21.3%27.5%-2.9%-9.9%--9.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-31.7%18.5%-1.6%-7.2%---4.4%

Valuation

TMDXLMATSRDXGPROCUPRMHUAMedian
NameTransMed.LeMaitre.SurmodicsGoPro Cuprina Meihua I. 
Mkt Cap3.92.00.60.3--1.3
P/S6.98.34.90.4--5.9
P/EBIT36.727.5-53.0-2.2--12.6
P/E42.837.6-33.7-2.1--17.8
P/CFO22.027.3-315.7-4.1--9.0
Total Yield2.3%3.5%-3.0%-48.4%---0.3%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.9%0.0%0.0%--0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-2.8%2.3%-0.3%-19.7%---1.6%
D/E0.10.10.10.8--0.1
Net D/E0.0-0.1-0.00.6--0.0

Returns

TMDXLMATSRDXGPROCUPRMHUAMedian
NameTransMed.LeMaitre.SurmodicsGoPro Cuprina Meihua I. 
1M Rtn-0.6%1.8%48.6%-24.8%-21.2%-31.8%-10.9%
3M Rtn-9.8%-7.8%11.1%17.0%-38.3%-35.6%-8.8%
6M Rtn-5.4%4.5%45.6%159.7%-83.6%-37.4%-0.4%
12M Rtn42.9%-12.6%7.5%30.6%--48.0%7.5%
3Y Rtn100.8%99.3%23.5%-70.8%--97.6%23.5%
1M Excs Rtn-2.2%0.3%47.0%-26.3%-22.8%-33.4%-12.5%
3M Excs Rtn-12.9%-11.4%8.4%6.8%-47.9%-43.4%-12.1%
6M Excs Rtn-18.4%-8.5%32.6%146.7%-96.6%-50.4%-13.4%
12M Excs Rtn13.3%-26.2%-4.6%-2.8%--63.2%-4.6%
3Y Excs Rtn41.9%28.7%-49.8%-149.0%--176.7%-49.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Liver revenue15246253
Heart revenue7338181411
Lung revenue1291169
Service revenue unrelated to Organ Care System (OCS) transplant5    
Total24293302624


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10312025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity7,542,390
Short Interest: % Change Since 10152025-5.4%
Average Daily Volume1,152,751
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.54
Basic Shares Quantity34,112,452
Short % of Basic Shares22.1%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/29/20251.1%-7.3% 
7/30/202510.5%10.3%8.4%
5/8/202519.6%30.7%49.6%
2/27/20255.8%-9.5%-4.9%
10/28/2024-29.9%-32.7%-36.1%
7/31/20246.5%2.5%17.1%
2/26/202414.1%11.9%-4.2%
11/6/202351.2%48.4%84.0%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131112
# Negative798
Median Positive10.5%11.9%19.1%
Median Negative-8.3%-14.0%-21.0%
Max Positive51.2%53.1%96.6%
Max Negative-29.9%-32.7%-36.1%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251029202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025730202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241029202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023227202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023804202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022227202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221104202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021301202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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