TransMedics (TMDX)
Market Price (11/16/2025): $115.16 | Market Cap: $3.9 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Equipment
TransMedics (TMDX)
Market Price (11/16/2025): $115.16Market Cap: $3.9 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 41% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 37x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 43x | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% | Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 22% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine, Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Remote Patient Monitoring, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 41% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine, Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Remote Patient Monitoring, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 37x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 43x |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 22% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
TMDX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the approximate -3.3% movement in TransMedics (TMDX) stock from July 31, 2025, to November 15, 2025:
1. Q3 2025 Revenue Miss: TransMedics reported third-quarter 2025 revenue of $143.8 million, which, despite representing a 32% increase year-over-year, fell slightly short of analyst consensus estimates that ranged from $145.26 million to $148.16 million.
2. Immediate Negative Market Reaction to Mixed Q3 Results: Following the Q3 2025 earnings release on October 29, 2025, the stock experienced an immediate negative reaction in after-hours trading, trading down approximately 3.2%. This suggests that the market's focus was predominantly on the revenue shortfall, overshadowing the significant beat on earnings per share.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TMDX Return | 5% | -4% | 222% | 28% | -21% | 84% | 505% |
| Peers Return | 22% | 12% | -18% | -16% | -15% | 4% | -17% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TMDX Win Rate | 42% | 50% | 67% | 58% | 50% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 32% | 32% | 30% | 37% | 28% | 49% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TMDX Max Drawdown | -45% | -11% | -34% | -40% | -25% | -9% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -28% | -3% | -23% | -37% | -37% | -28% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LMAT, SRDX, GPRO, CUPR, MHUA. See TMDX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/14/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TMDX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -73.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 280.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 163 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -48.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 92.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 309 days | 148 days |
Compare to LMAT, SRDX, GPRO, CUPR, MHUA
In The Past
TransMedics's stock fell -73.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/22/2021. A -73.7% loss requires a 280.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TMDX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -11.9% | -11.9% | -11.9% |
| 10312025 | DXCM | DexCom | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.3% | -0.3% | -5.8% |
| 10242025 | ACHC | Acadia Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -31.5% | -31.5% | -31.5% |
| 10102025 | PBH | Prestige Consumer Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.6% | -1.6% | -1.9% |
| 10032025 | REGN | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.6% | 15.6% | -7.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -11.9% | -11.9% | -11.9% |
| 10312025 | DXCM | DexCom | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.3% | -0.3% | -5.8% |
| 10242025 | ACHC | Acadia Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -31.5% | -31.5% | -31.5% |
| 10102025 | PBH | Prestige Consumer Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.6% | -1.6% | -1.9% |
| 10032025 | REGN | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.6% | 15.6% | -7.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for TransMedics
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 21.59 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.3 |
| Rev LTM | 404 |
| Op Inc LTM | 25 |
| FCF LTM | 31 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -28 |
| CFO LTM | 36 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 24 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 3.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -1.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -4.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.3 |
| P/S | 5.9 |
| P/EBIT | 12.6 |
| P/E | 17.8 |
| P/CFO | 9.0 |
| Total Yield | -0.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -1.6% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -10.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -8.8% |
| 6M Rtn | -0.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 7.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 23.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -12.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -12.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -13.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -4.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -49.8% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2025 | 1.1% | -7.3% | |
| 7/30/2025 | 10.5% | 10.3% | 8.4% |
| 5/8/2025 | 19.6% | 30.7% | 49.6% |
| 2/27/2025 | 5.8% | -9.5% | -4.9% |
| 10/28/2024 | -29.9% | -32.7% | -36.1% |
| 7/31/2024 | 6.5% | 2.5% | 17.1% |
| 2/26/2024 | 14.1% | 11.9% | -4.2% |
| 11/6/2023 | 51.2% | 48.4% | 84.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 11 | 12 |
| # Negative | 7 | 9 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 10.5% | 11.9% | 19.1% |
| Median Negative | -8.3% | -14.0% | -21.0% |
| Max Positive | 51.2% | 53.1% | 96.6% |
| Max Negative | -29.9% | -32.7% | -36.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10292025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10292024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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