Axogen (AXGN)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $30.62 | Market Cap: $1.4 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Life Sciences Tools & Services
Axogen (AXGN)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $30.62Market Cap: $1.4 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Life Sciences Tools & Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Regenerative Medicine Biomaterials, Targeted Therapies, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.1%, Dist 3Y High is -1.1% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 146x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 127x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 160% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.4% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Regenerative Medicine Biomaterials, Targeted Therapies, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.1%, Dist 3Y High is -1.1% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 146x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 127x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 160% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.4% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
AXGN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining Axogen's (AXGN) stock movement from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. FDA Approval of AVANCE® Biologics License Application (BLA)
Axogen announced on December 3, 2025, the FDA approval of its Biologics License Application for AVANCE® (acellular nerve allograft–arwx). This approval clears AVANCE for treating sensory, mixed, and motor peripheral nerve discontinuities in adult and pediatric patients aged 1 month or older, transitioning it from a human tissue product to a biologic. This regulatory milestone clarifies and strengthens Axogen's market position, contributing to investor confidence.
2. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results
On October 29, 2025, Axogen reported impressive financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025. The company announced revenue of $60.1 million, a 23.5% increase year-over-year, and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.12, significantly surpassing analyst estimates of $0.07 or $0.09. Gross margin expanded to 76.6%, and the company achieved a net income of $0.7 million compared to a net loss in the prior-year quarter. This strong financial performance, including a return to profitability, led to a favorable market response and a pre-market stock surge of approximately 9.8% following the announcement.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AXGN Return | 0% | -48% | 7% | -32% | 141% | 68% | 55% |
| Peers Return | 52% | 3% | -11% | -6% | -18% | 41% | 52% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AXGN Win Rate | 50% | 25% | 42% | 33% | 67% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 40% | 35% | 31% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AXGN Max Drawdown | -59% | -51% | -25% | -64% | -17% | -44% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -31% | -15% | -31% | -31% | -27% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: A, ATEC, CERS, AVRT, BLLN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AXGN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -84.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 551.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 734 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -58.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 143.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 256 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -80.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 400.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -82.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 476.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 3123 days | 1480 days |
Compare to A, ATEC, CERS, AVRT, BLLN
In The Past
Axogen's stock fell -84.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/7/2021. A -84.6% loss requires a 551.0% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Can Axogen Stock Hold Up When Markets Turn? | Return | ||
| Axogen (AXGN) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Axogen (AXGN) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
| Axogen (AXGN) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Axogen (AXGN) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Axogen (AXGN) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| Axogen (AXGN) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Axogen (AXGN) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | ||
| Why Axogen Stock Moved: AXGN Stock Has Gained 318% Since 2023 Fiscal End, Primarily Due To Favorable Change In Price To Sales Multiple (P/S) | |||
| Axogen Stock Up 25% in One Month, Should You Buy The Stock? | Buy or Fear | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| AXGN Stock Up 18% after 8-Day Win Streak | July 2nd, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AXGN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Axogen
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 28.33 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.3 |
| Rev LTM | 471 |
| Op Inc LTM | -3 |
| FCF LTM | 1 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -13 |
| CFO LTM | 21 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -6 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 15.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 12.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 19.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -1.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -9.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 3.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -4.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 0.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -8.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.3 |
| P/S | 3.4 |
| P/EBIT | 1.5 |
| P/E | -16.7 |
| P/CFO | 74.1 |
| Total Yield | -2.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -4.7% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 16.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 42.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 55.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 54.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 52.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 16.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 33.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 40.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 42.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -11.0% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10292025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3052024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3142023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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