Eli Lilly (LLY)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $1012.3 | Market Cap: $908.9 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Pharmaceuticals
Eli Lilly (LLY)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $1012.3Market Cap: $908.9 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Pharmaceuticals
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 39x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 63x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 50x |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 43% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, CFO LTM is 11 Bil | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 43% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, CFO LTM is 11 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 39x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 63x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 50x |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
LLY Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Continued Blockbuster Sales and Growth Prospects of GLP-1 Drugs: Eli Lilly's diabetes and obesity treatments, Mounjaro and Zepbound, continued to drive significant revenue growth. Mounjaro sales more than doubled to $11.54 billion in 2024, with Zepbound notching $4.9 billion in its first full year. Analysts anticipate Mounjaro sales to exceed $18 billion and Zepbound sales to surpass $10 billion in 2025. This robust performance and optimistic forecasts fueled investor confidence.
2. Positive Phase 3 Clinical Trial Results for Orforglipron: In August 2025, Eli Lilly announced positive topline results from the Phase 3 ATTAIN-2 trial for orforglipron, an investigational oral GLP-1 receptor agonist, in adults with obesity or overweight and type 2 diabetes. The trial demonstrated significant weight loss and A1C reductions, completing the clinical data package required for global regulatory submissions and signaling a potential expansion of Lilly's GLP-1 franchise into oral therapies.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LLY Return | 31% | 66% | 34% | 61% | 33% | 32% | 730% |
| Peers Return | -4% | 18% | 16% | -17% | 0% | -2% | 7% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LLY Win Rate | 50% | 58% | 75% | 58% | 58% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 44% | 52% | 60% | 33% | 44% | 45% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LLY Max Drawdown | -9% | -3% | -15% | -15% | 0% | -19% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -27% | -9% | -11% | -24% | -12% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MRK, PFE, BMY, BDX, LHI. See LLY Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LLY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -18.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 23.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -22.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 47 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -18.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 154 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -54.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 120.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1873 days | 1480 days |
Compare to MRK, PFE, BMY, BDX, LHI
In The Past
Eli Lilly's stock fell -18.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/17/2021. A -18.7% loss requires a 23.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| High Margins, 3.5% Discount: Buy Eli Lilly Stock Now | Actionable | ||
| Eli Lilly Stock Now 3.5% Cheaper, Time To Buy | Actionable | ||
| Eli Lilly Stock Now 3.5% Cheaper, Time To Buy | Actionable | ||
| Why Eli Lilly Stock Jumped 50%? | |||
| How Does Eli Lilly Stock Compare With Peers? | |||
| Eli Lilly Stock Shares Rally 15% In A Month, Should You Buy The Stock Despite Its High Valuation? | Buy or Fear | ||
| Is Eli Lilly Stock Built to Withstand More Downside? | Return | ||
| Day 5 of Gains Streak for Eli Lilly Stock with 11% Return (vs. 34% YTD) [11/16/2025]TREFISDASH | Notification | ||
| Triggers That Could Ignite the Next Rally In Eli Lilly Stock | |||
| 3 Forces That Could Shake Eli Lilly Stock | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| High Margins, 3.5% Discount: Buy Eli Lilly Stock Now | December 3rd, 2025 | ||
| High Margins, 3.5% Discount: Buy Eli Lilly Stock Now | December 3rd, 2025 | ||
| High Margins, 3.5% Discount: Buy Eli Lilly Stock Now | December 3rd, 2025 | ||
| S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | November 25th, 2025 | ||
| What Is Happening With Eli Lilly Stock? | November 22nd, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to LLY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.0% | 10.0% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.9% | 6.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.9% | 8.9% | -5.1% |
| 05312025 | LLY | Eli Lilly | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 46.3% | 40.6% | -15.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.0% | 10.0% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.9% | 6.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.9% | 8.9% | -5.1% |
| 05312025 | LLY | Eli Lilly | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 46.3% | 40.6% | -15.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Eli Lilly
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 100.89 |
| Mkt Cap | 146.1 |
| Rev LTM | 53,258 |
| Op Inc LTM | 15,417 |
| FCF LTM | 10,376 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 8,927 |
| CFO LTM | 13,077 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 12,127 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 24.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 19.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 20.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 146.1 |
| P/S | 2.3 |
| P/EBIT | 12.2 |
| P/E | 15.2 |
| P/CFO | 12.3 |
| Total Yield | 12.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.9% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.5% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 12.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 12.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 15.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 3.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | -17.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 10.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 5.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -0.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -9.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -88.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trulicity | 7,132 | 7,440 | 6,472 | 5,068 | 4,128 |
| Mounjaro | 5,163 | 482 | |||
| Verzenio | 3,863 | 2,484 | 1,350 | 913 | 580 |
| Taltz | 2,760 | 2,482 | 2,213 | 1,788 | 1,366 |
| Jardiance | 2,745 | 2,066 | 1,491 | 1,154 | 944 |
| Zyprexa | 1,695 | 337 | 430 | 406 | 419 |
| Humalog | 1,663 | 2,061 | 2,453 | 2,626 | 2,821 |
| Other | 1,122 | 296 | |||
| Cyramza | 975 | 971 | 1,033 | 1,033 | 925 |
| Olumiant | 923 | 830 | 1,115 | 639 | 427 |
| Humulin | 852 | 1,019 | 1,223 | 1,260 | 1,290 |
| Other Oncology | 830 | 424 | |||
| Basaglar | 728 | 760 | 892 | 1,124 | 1,113 |
| Emgality | 678 | 651 | 577 | 363 | 162 |
| Baqsimi | 678 | 139 | |||
| Erbitux | 596 | 566 | 548 | 536 | 543 |
| Other cardiometabolic health | 530 | 497 | |||
| Other Neuroscience | 506 | 558 | |||
| Tyvyt | 393 | 293 | 418 | 309 | |
| Zepbound | 176 | 0 | |||
| Other Immunology | 115 | 32 | |||
| COVID-19 Antibodies | 0 | 2,024 | 2,239 | 871 | |
| Alimta | 928 | 2,061 | 2,330 | 2,116 | |
| Cialis | 587 | 718 | 607 | 890 | |
| Forteo | 613 | 802 | 1,046 | 1,405 | |
| Cymbalta | 582 | 768 | 725 | ||
| Other products | 1,700 | 1,340 | 1,874 | ||
| Trajenta | 358 | 591 | |||
| Total | 34,124 | 28,541 | 28,318 | 24,540 | 22,320 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4302024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2212024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2222023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11012022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4292022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2232022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
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