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Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 39x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 63x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 50x
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 43%
 
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, CFO LTM is 11 Bil
 
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 40%
 
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Show more.
 
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 43%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, CFO LTM is 11 Bil
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 40%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Gene Editing & Therapy, Show more.
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 39x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 63x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 50x

Valuation, Metrics & Events

LLY Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Continued Blockbuster Sales and Growth Prospects of GLP-1 Drugs: Eli Lilly's diabetes and obesity treatments, Mounjaro and Zepbound, continued to drive significant revenue growth. Mounjaro sales more than doubled to $11.54 billion in 2024, with Zepbound notching $4.9 billion in its first full year. Analysts anticipate Mounjaro sales to exceed $18 billion and Zepbound sales to surpass $10 billion in 2025. This robust performance and optimistic forecasts fueled investor confidence.

2. Positive Phase 3 Clinical Trial Results for Orforglipron: In August 2025, Eli Lilly announced positive topline results from the Phase 3 ATTAIN-2 trial for orforglipron, an investigational oral GLP-1 receptor agonist, in adults with obesity or overweight and type 2 diabetes. The trial demonstrated significant weight loss and A1C reductions, completing the clinical data package required for global regulatory submissions and signaling a potential expansion of Lilly's GLP-1 franchise into oral therapies.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
LLY Return31%66%34%61%33%32%730%
Peers Return-4%18%16%-17%0%-2%7%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
LLY Win Rate50%58%75%58%58%60% 
Peers Win Rate44%52%60%33%44%45% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
LLY Max Drawdown-9%-3%-15%-15%0%-19% 
Peers Max Drawdown-27%-9%-11%-24%-12%-23% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MRK, PFE, BMY, BDX, LHI. See LLY Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventLLYS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-18.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven23.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven78 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-22.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven29.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven47 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-18.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven22.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven154 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-54.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven120.5%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1873 days1480 days

Compare to MRK, PFE, BMY, BDX, LHI


In The Past

Eli Lilly's stock fell -18.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/17/2021. A -18.7% loss requires a 23.1% gain to breakeven.

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About Eli Lilly (LLY)

Better Bets than Eli Lilly (LLY)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to LLY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.0%10.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.7%-7.7%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.9%6.9%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.9%8.9%-5.1%
LLY_5312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper05312025LLYEli LillyMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
46.3%40.6%-15.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.0%10.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.7%-7.7%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.9%6.9%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.9%8.9%-5.1%
LLY_5312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper05312025LLYEli LillyMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
46.3%40.6%-15.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Eli Lilly

Peers to compare with:

Financials

LLYMRKPFEBMYBDXLHIMedian
NameEli LillyMerck Pfizer Bristol-.Becton D.Living H. 
Mkt Price1,014.49100.8925.7051.95193.76-100.89
Mkt Cap910.9251.7146.1105.855.6-146.1
Rev LTM53,25864,23562,78648,03421,386-53,258
Op Inc LTM22,88222,39115,41711,4202,955-15,417
FCF LTM-5013,04910,37615,3022,550-10,376
FCF 3Y Avg-15613,6858,92713,5982,504-8,927
CFO LTM10,93817,06513,07716,6213,254-13,077
CFO 3Y Avg7,23017,50612,12714,8463,278-12,127

Growth & Margins

LLYMRKPFEBMYBDXLHIMedian
NameEli LillyMerck Pfizer Bristol-.Becton D.Living H. 
Rev Chg LTM36.8%1.7%3.9%1.3%7.9%-3.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg23.4%2.9%-13.2%1.0%4.1%-2.9%
Rev Chg Q37.6%3.7%-5.9%2.8%10.4%-3.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM8.7%1.0%-1.6%0.7%2.5%-1.0%
Op Mgn LTM43.0%34.9%24.6%23.8%13.8%-24.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg35.6%23.7%19.4%19.0%13.3%-19.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.8%3.7%-1.4%2.9%0.9%-1.8%
CFO/Rev LTM20.5%26.6%20.8%34.6%15.2%-20.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg17.8%28.2%18.9%31.7%16.3%-18.9%
FCF/Rev LTM-0.1%20.3%16.5%31.9%11.9%-16.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg0.5%22.0%13.9%29.0%12.4%-13.9%

Valuation

LLYMRKPFEBMYBDXLHIMedian
NameEli LillyMerck Pfizer Bristol-.Becton D.Living H. 
Mkt Cap910.9251.7146.1105.855.6-146.1
P/S12.93.32.31.92.3-2.3
P/EBIT38.69.112.29.219.8-12.2
P/E49.611.014.715.231.2-15.2
P/CFO62.612.311.15.515.2-12.3
Total Yield2.7%13.0%13.5%12.0%5.6%-12.0%
Dividend Yield0.7%3.9%6.7%5.4%2.4%-3.9%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg0.1%5.5%5.5%13.2%4.1%-5.5%
D/E0.10.20.40.60.4-0.4
Net D/E0.10.10.30.40.4-0.3

Returns

LLYMRKPFEBMYBDXLHIMedian
NameEli LillyMerck Pfizer Bristol-.Becton D.Living H. 
1M Rtn12.0%20.3%5.8%14.0%8.2%-12.0%
3M Rtn36.8%21.2%6.6%12.8%1.9%-12.8%
6M Rtn33.0%32.6%15.1%11.5%14.6%-15.1%
12M Rtn23.2%3.2%9.2%-6.6%-10.7%-3.2%
3Y Rtn181.3%0.3%-39.7%-26.5%-17.1%--17.1%
1M Excs Rtn10.8%19.0%4.5%12.7%7.0%-10.8%
3M Excs Rtn33.9%14.5%-0.7%5.9%-4.5%-5.9%
6M Excs Rtn17.5%17.1%-0.4%-3.9%-0.9%--0.4%
12M Excs Rtn14.4%-9.4%-6.7%-22.4%-24.6%--9.4%
3Y Excs Rtn112.2%-71.9%-111.5%-98.2%-88.6%--88.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Trulicity7,1327,4406,4725,0684,128
Mounjaro5,163482   
Verzenio3,8632,4841,350913580
Taltz2,7602,4822,2131,7881,366
Jardiance2,7452,0661,4911,154944
Zyprexa1,695337430406419
Humalog1,6632,0612,4532,6262,821
Other1,122296   
Cyramza9759711,0331,033925
Olumiant9238301,115639427
Humulin8521,0191,2231,2601,290
Other Oncology830424   
Basaglar7287608921,1241,113
Emgality678651577363162
Baqsimi678139   
Erbitux596566548536543
Other cardiometabolic health530497   
Other Neuroscience506558   
Tyvyt393293418309 
Zepbound1760   
Other Immunology11532   
COVID-19 Antibodies02,0242,239871 
Alimta 9282,0612,3302,116
Cialis 587718607890
Forteo 6138021,0461,405
Cymbalta  582768725
Other products  1,7001,3401,874
Trajenta   358591
Total34,12428,54128,31824,54022,320


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity7,247,713
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202512.6%
Average Daily Volume5,244,081
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.38
Basic Shares Quantity897,900,000
Short % of Basic Shares0.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024219202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241030202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024430202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023221202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023427202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022222202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221101202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022429202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021223202210-K 12/31/2021