Medtronic (MDT)
Market Price (9/20/2026): $92.2 | Market Cap: $118.0 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Equipment
Medtronic (MDT)
Market Price (9/20/2026): $92.2Market Cap: $118.0 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Equipment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.5%, Dividend Yield is 3.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.2%, FCF Yield is 5.2% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 8.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.1 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 6.5 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, Digital Health & Telemedicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -27%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -46% | Key risksMDT key risks include [1] navigating stringent regulatory hurdles and significant litigation exposure, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.5%, Dividend Yield is 3.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.2%, FCF Yield is 5.2% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 8.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.1 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 6.5 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, Digital Health & Telemedicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -27%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -46% |
| Key risksMDT key risks include [1] navigating stringent regulatory hurdles and significant litigation exposure, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Medtronic (MDT) stock has gained about 25% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Financial Performance and Raised Fiscal Year 2027 Guidance.
Medtronic demonstrated robust operational execution by consistently exceeding analyst expectations and subsequently raising its full-year fiscal 2027 guidance. For its fiscal Q4 2026, which ended on April 24, 2026, Medtronic reported revenue of $9.8 billion, a 9.9% year-over-year increase, and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.55, both surpassing estimates. This momentum continued into fiscal Q1 2027, which ended on July 31, 2026, with worldwide revenue reaching $9.756 billion, an increase of 13.7% organically, outperforming Wall Street's forecast of $9.55 billion. Adjusted EPS for the quarter was $1.45, beating estimates of $1.39. Following these strong results, Medtronic raised its fiscal 2027 organic revenue growth guidance to a range of 7.25% to 7.75% and its adjusted EPS guidance to $5.94 to $6.00.
2. Exceptional Growth in Cardiac Ablation Solutions and Strategic Product Advancements.
The Cardiac Ablation Solutions (CAS) division was a significant growth driver for Medtronic during this period, fueled by strong adoption of its technologies and expanded indications. In fiscal Q4 2026, CAS recorded an exceptional 78% worldwide growth. This impressive performance accelerated in fiscal Q1 2027, with CAS growing 88% worldwide and 139% in the U.S., reaching over $2 billion in trailing 12-month revenue ahead of schedule. The U.S. installed base of the Affera system notably increased by approximately 35% sequentially. Further bolstering this segment, Medtronic announced an expanded CE Mark indication for its Affera™ Mapping and Ablation System and Sphere-9™ Catheter for the treatment of ventricular arrhythmias in August 2026.
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Medtronic (MDT) stock has gained about 25% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Financial Performance and Raised Fiscal Year 2027 Guidance.
Medtronic demonstrated robust operational execution by consistently exceeding analyst expectations and subsequently raising its full-year fiscal 2027 guidance. For its fiscal Q4 2026, which ended on April 24, 2026, Medtronic reported revenue of $9.8 billion, a 9.9% year-over-year increase, and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.55, both surpassing estimates. This momentum continued into fiscal Q1 2027, which ended on July 31, 2026, with worldwide revenue reaching $9.756 billion, an increase of 13.7% organically, outperforming Wall Street's forecast of $9.55 billion. Adjusted EPS for the quarter was $1.45, beating estimates of $1.39. Following these strong results, Medtronic raised its fiscal 2027 organic revenue growth guidance to a range of 7.25% to 7.75% and its adjusted EPS guidance to $5.94 to $6.00.
2. Exceptional Growth in Cardiac Ablation Solutions and Strategic Product Advancements.
The Cardiac Ablation Solutions (CAS) division was a significant growth driver for Medtronic during this period, fueled by strong adoption of its technologies and expanded indications. In fiscal Q4 2026, CAS recorded an exceptional 78% worldwide growth. This impressive performance accelerated in fiscal Q1 2027, with CAS growing 88% worldwide and 139% in the U.S., reaching over $2 billion in trailing 12-month revenue ahead of schedule. The U.S. installed base of the Affera system notably increased by approximately 35% sequentially. Further bolstering this segment, Medtronic announced an expanded CE Mark indication for its Affera™ Mapping and Ablation System and Sphere-9™ Catheter for the treatment of ventricular arrhythmias in August 2026.
3. Strategic Expansion in Robotic-Assisted Surgery and Targeted Acquisitions.
Medtronic strengthened its long-term growth prospects through a significant strategic partnership and targeted acquisitions. On September 1, 2026, the company announced an approximate $700 million strategic investment in Cornerstone Robotics to distribute its Sentire™ surgical system in select markets outside the U.S., thereby expanding Medtronic's robotic-assisted surgery portfolio alongside its Hugo™ Robotic-Assisted Surgery (RAS) system. The Sentire system had received CE Mark approval in May 2026. Additionally, Medtronic completed the acquisitions of Scientia Vascular and SPR Therapeutics within fiscal Q1 2027, which contribute to the diversification and enhancement of its neurovascular and neuromodulation portfolios, respectively.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 25.9% change in MDT stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 10.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 73.15 | 92.13 | 25.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 35,483 | 37,541 | 5.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.0% | 13.9% | 7.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.3 | 22.5 | 10.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,283 | 1,280 | 0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 25.9% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MDT | 25.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.9% | -4.5% |
| Sector (XLV) | 12.7% | 69.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -4.0% change in MDT stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/19/2026 was primarily driven by a -15.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 96.00 | 92.13 | -4.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 35,483 | 37,541 | 5.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.0% | 13.9% | 7.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 26.7 | 22.5 | -15.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,283 | 1,280 | 0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -4.0% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MDT | -4.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.6% | 10.7% |
| Sector (XLV) | 5.5% | 68.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 2.5% change in MDT stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 9.8% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 9192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 89.89 | 92.13 | 2.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 34,200 | 37,541 | 9.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.6% | 13.9% | 2.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.7 | 22.5 | -8.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,282 | 1,280 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 2.5% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MDT | 2.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 19.4% | 8.4% |
| Sector (XLV) | 24.1% | 61.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 24.8% change in MDT stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 21.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 8312023 | 9192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 73.85 | 92.13 | 24.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 31,559 | 37,541 | 19.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.5% | 13.9% | 21.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 27.1 | 22.5 | -17.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,330 | 1,280 | 4.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 24.8% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MDT | 24.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.6% | 26.5% |
| Sector (XLV) | 32.3% | 57.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MDT Return | -10% | -23% | 10% | 0% | 24% | -2% | -6% |
| Peers Return | 20% | -8% | 14% | 26% | 15% | -18% | 50% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 103% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MDT Win Rate | 42% | 42% | 42% | 50% | 58% | 56% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 50% | 55% | 62% | 60% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 44% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MDT Max Drawdown | -26% | -32% | -23% | -13% | -14% | -28% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -16% | -30% | -19% | -12% | -17% | -35% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: BSX, ABT, SYK, JNJ, ISRG. See MDT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/18/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MDT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.3% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.0% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 96 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -22.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1072 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -35.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 213 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -14.9% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.6% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 149 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -18.1% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.1% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 149 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -17.6% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.4% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 79 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Medtronic's stock fell -6.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 7.0% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | MDT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.3% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.0% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 96 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -22.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1072 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -35.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 213 days | 140 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -51.0% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 104.0% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1410 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Medtronic's stock fell -6.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 7.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Medtronic (MDT)
Medtronic plc (MDT) is a global leader in medical technology, specializing in the development, manufacturing, and distribution of a wide range of device-based medical therapies. The company's mission is to alleviate pain, restore health, and extend life, addressing various chronic and acute medical conditions for healthcare providers and patients worldwide.
The company's extensive product portfolio spans several key areas. Its Cardiovascular segment offers advanced devices for heart rhythm management (like pacemakers and defibrillators), structural heart conditions (such as heart valves and stents), and vascular diseases. The Neuroscience segment provides comprehensive solutions for spinal and brain surgery, pain management, and neurological disorders, including surgical navigation systems and therapies for brain-related conditions.
Medtronic also operates a Medical Surgical segment, delivering a suite of advanced surgical tools, robotic-assisted surgery platforms, and hernia repair products used in a broad spectrum of procedures. Furthermore, its Diabetes Operating Unit focuses on innovative solutions for diabetes management, including insulin pumps and continuous glucose monitoring systems. Medtronic's primary customers are hospitals, physicians, and other clinicians globally, with certain products directly serving patients.
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The General Electric (GE) of medical devices.
A more diversified version of Abbott Laboratories, focused solely on advanced medical devices.
Like Johnson & Johnson's medical device division, but as a standalone company making an even wider array of critical surgical and implantable technologies.
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- Cardiac Rhythm & Heart Failure Devices: Implantable pacemakers, defibrillators, cardiac resynchronization therapy devices, AF ablation products, and insertable cardiac monitors for managing heart conditions.
- Vascular & Structural Heart Products: Aortic valves, stents, surgical valve replacement/repair products, endovascular stent grafts, and angioplasty balloons for treating vascular and structural heart diseases.
- Mechanical Circulatory Support: Devices that assist the heart in pumping blood for patients with heart failure.
- Surgical Devices & Robotics: Surgical stapling devices, vessel sealing instruments, wound closure products, electrosurgery products, and robotic-assisted surgery systems.
- Hernia & Women's Health Products: Mechanical devices and mesh implants for hernia repair, and products for gynecology and lung conditions.
- Spinal & Neurological Surgical Systems: Image-guided surgery, intra-operative imaging, and robotic guidance systems for spine and neurosurgery.
- Neurovascular Therapies: Products and therapies specifically designed to treat conditions affecting the blood vessels in and around the brain.
- Insulin Pumps & Consumables: Devices that deliver insulin continuously for diabetes management.
- Continuous Glucose Monitoring Systems (CGM): Systems that provide real-time glucose level readings for people with diabetes.
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Medtronic (MDT) primarily sells its device-based medical therapies to other companies and institutions. Its major customers can be categorized as follows:
- Hospitals and Healthcare Systems: These are the primary institutional buyers for the vast majority of Medtronic's products across its Cardiovascular, Neuroscience, and Medical Surgical portfolios. This includes large public and private hospital chains, university hospitals, and integrated delivery networks that acquire devices for use in surgeries, diagnostics, and long-term patient care. While Medtronic sells to these types of companies globally, the provided background information does not list the specific names of these customer companies.
- Surgical Centers and Clinics: These facilities also serve as significant customers, purchasing Medtronic's specialized devices and therapies, particularly for outpatient procedures and specific clinical needs. Physicians and clinicians, mentioned in the company description, generally procure Medtronic products through these institutional channels.
In addition to selling to the aforementioned companies, Medtronic's Diabetes Operating Unit directly serves **individual patients** with products such as insulin pumps and continuous glucose monitoring systems.
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Geoff Martha - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Geoff Martha is the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Medtronic, having been appointed CEO in April 2020 and Chairman later that year. He joined Medtronic in 2011 and has held various leadership positions, including SVP, Strategy and Business Development; Chief Integration Officer; and Executive Vice President, Restorative Therapies Group. Notably, he led the acquisition and integration of Covidien, which was the largest acquisition in the medical technology industry. Before joining Medtronic, Martha spent 19 years at GE Healthcare and GE Capital, where he held various business development, strategic marketing, and sales management roles. He holds a bachelor's degree in Finance from Pennsylvania State University.
Thierry Piéton - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Thierry Piéton was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Medtronic, with his role becoming effective on March 3, 2025. Prior to joining Medtronic, Piéton served as Chief Financial Officer of Renault Group starting in March 2022, where he was recognized for achieving record-high operating margins and improving free cash flow. His extensive background also includes experience at Nissan Motor Co. Ltd, General Electric (GE), GE Healthcare, and PricewaterhouseCoopers, showcasing a career built across multiple industries and geographies.
Brett A. Wall - Executive Vice President and President, Neuroscience Portfolio
Brett A. Wall serves as the Executive Vice President and President of Medtronic's Neuroscience Portfolio.
Harry S. Kiil - Executive Vice President and President, Cardiovascular Portfolio
Harry S. Kiil, also known as Skip Kiil, is the Executive Vice President and President of the Cardiovascular Portfolio at Medtronic.
Mike Marinaro - Executive Vice President and President, Medical Surgical Portfolio and Americas
Mike Marinaro holds the position of Executive Vice President and President of the Medical Surgical Portfolio and Americas at Medtronic.
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Key Risks to Medtronic (MDT)
- Intense Competition and Pricing Pressures: Medtronic operates in a highly competitive medical technology industry characterized by rapid technological advancements and the continuous emergence of new competitors. This environment necessitates constant innovation to maintain market leadership and defend market share. Additionally, the company faces significant pricing pressures from healthcare cost containment initiatives and increased price sensitivity among customers, which can negatively impact profitability and require adjustments in pricing strategies. For example, in the diabetes care segment, competitors are expected to capture a majority of new durable pump users, putting pressure on Medtronic's market position.
- Regulatory and Legal Challenges: As a global medical device company, Medtronic is subject to stringent regulatory oversight in numerous jurisdictions, leading to costly compliance requirements and potential legal disputes. Delays in regulatory approvals can hinder the company's ability to bring new innovations to market, affecting its competitive edge and revenue growth. Furthermore, changes in healthcare policies, reimbursement rates, and intellectual property litigation pose ongoing threats that can impact operations, market access, and financial performance. The company must navigate complex global regulatory landscapes, which can be resource-intensive.
- Supply Chain Dependencies and Geopolitical/Tariff Risks: Medtronic faces operational risks stemming from its complex global supply chain, including vulnerabilities due to reliance on sole suppliers for certain components and raw materials. Disruptions or interruptions in the supply chain can affect manufacturing and product availability, potentially damaging the company's reputation and customer relationships. Moreover, extensive international operations expose Medtronic to geopolitical risks, currency fluctuations, and varying economic conditions. The potential return to higher tariff rates, particularly on goods from China, is identified as a significant financial headwind that could impact earnings and margins.
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The rise of highly effective glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist drugs (e.g., Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro, Zepbound) represents a clear emerging threat, particularly to Medtronic's Diabetes Operating Unit. These drugs are demonstrating significant efficacy in weight loss and improving glycemic control for patients with type 2 diabetes and obesity. For a segment of the diabetic population, particularly those in earlier stages of type 2 diabetes or those currently using less intensive insulin regimens, these pharmaceutical advancements could reduce or even eliminate the need for insulin pumps and potentially continuous glucose monitoring systems by effectively managing their condition through medication. This could shrink the addressable market for Medtronic's device-based diabetes management therapies.
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Medtronic (symbol: MDT) operates across several significant medical device markets globally. The addressable markets for its main products and services are sized as follows:
- Cardiac Rhythm Management Devices (Implantable cardiac pacemakers, cardioverter defibrillators, cardiac resynchronization therapy devices): The global market for cardiac rhythm management devices was estimated at USD 23.87 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach approximately USD 43.19 billion by 2035. North America is a dominant region, holding over 46% of the market share in 2025.
- Structural Heart Devices (Aortic valves, surgical valve replacement and repair products): The global structural heart devices market size was estimated at USD 16.13 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 50.99 billion by 2033. North America dominated the global market in 2024, accounting for the largest revenue share of 52.5%.
- Interventional Cardiology and Peripheral Vascular Devices (Percutaneous coronary intervention stents, endovascular stent grafts, percutaneous angioplasty balloons, products to treat superficial venous diseases): The global interventional cardiology and peripheral vascular devices market was valued at USD 27.7 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 60.8 billion by 2035. North America is identified as the largest market in this segment.
- Surgical Robotics: The global surgical robotics market size was valued at USD 10.76 billion in 2024 and is forecasted to reach around USD 45.93 billion by 2034. The U.S. surgical robotics market size alone was USD 3.84 billion in 2024.
- Hernia Repair Devices (Hernia mechanical devices, mesh implants): The global hernia repair devices market size was USD 5.64 billion in 2025 and is anticipated to reach approximately USD 9.22 billion by 2035.
- Neurovascular Devices (Therapies for vasculature in and around the brain): The global neurovascular devices market size is calculated at USD 7.80 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach around USD 13.69 billion by 2035. North America led the global neurovascular devices market share by 28% in 2024.
- Pain Management Devices: The global pain management devices market was valued at USD 7.70 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 14.31 billion by 2032.
- Urology Devices: The global urology devices market size was USD 39.03 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 75.48 billion by 2034. North America dominated this market with a share of 37.11% in 2025.
- Insulin Pumps: The global insulin pump market size was valued at USD 7.05 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 22.45 billion by 2034. North America dominated the market with a 57.34% market share in 2025.
- Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) Systems: The global Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) Systems Market is projected to expand from USD 12,835.6 million in 2025 to USD 55,048.4 million by 2035. In 2024, the market generated USD 11,096.4 million in revenue.
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Medtronic (MDT) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies and product advancements:
- Innovation and New Product Launches Across Key Portfolios: Medtronic is focused on launching new, innovative products in high-growth areas. Significant drivers include the pulsed field ablation (PFA) platform for AFib, which has shown rapid growth within the Cardiac Ablation Solutions business, with Medtronic aiming to double revenue in this segment to $2 billion by the first half of fiscal year 2027. Additionally, the Hugo robotic surgical system, having received FDA approval, is anticipated to unlock substantial market opportunities in the U.S. The Neuroscience Portfolio also contributes with new offerings such as the Stealth AXiS surgical system and an Adaptive deep brain stimulation (DBS) system.
- Growth in the Diabetes Operating Unit: The Diabetes Operating Unit is a significant revenue growth driver, primarily through the continued adoption of the MiniMed™ 780G automated insulin delivery system and the global rollout of the next-generation Simplera Sync™ sensor. The company has also secured expanded indications for its diabetes technologies, including for insulin-requiring Type 2 diabetes and younger pediatric populations.
- Expansion into Emerging Markets: Medtronic is strategically expanding its presence in international markets, particularly focusing on emerging markets like China. This expansion aims to achieve sustainable double-digit growth by introducing cost-effective surgical products and increasing the attachment rates of Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) systems.
- Strong Performance in Cardiac Ablation Solutions (CAS): The Cardiac Ablation Solutions business, bolstered by its pulsed field ablation (PFA) portfolio, is experiencing substantial growth. This segment has shown significant year-over-year growth and is gaining market share, with the company expecting to double its revenue.
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Share Repurchases
- Medtronic's annual share buybacks were $3.235 billion in 2025, $2.138 billion in 2024, and $645 million in 2023.
- Medtronic repurchased $105 million in shares for the quarter ending December 31, 2025.
- The company aims to return a minimum of 50% of its free cash flow to shareholders.
Share Issuance
- Medtronic's shares outstanding saw a 3.03% decline from 2024 to 2025, a 0.2% decline from 2023 to 2024, and a 1.38% decline from 2022 to 2023, indicating net repurchases.
- As of March 2026, the number of shares outstanding for Medtronic was 1.282 billion.
Outbound Investments
- Medtronic completed the acquisition of Scientia Vascular in March 2026 for $550 million.
- The company made a Post IPO investment in Orchestra BioMed on July 31, 2025, and a Series D investment in FIRE1 on January 7, 2025.
- Medtronic maintains "significant firepower" to pursue acquisitions, particularly in cardiology and neuroscience, targeting deals in the low- to mid-single-digit billions of dollars to supplement internal R&D efforts.
Capital Expenditures
- Medtronic's capital expenditures were $1.859 billion in 2025, $1.587 billion in 2024, and $1.459 billion in 2023.
- Capital expenditures have increased consistently over the last five fiscal years, from $1.355 billion in 2021 to $1.859 billion in 2025.
- Medtronic invested an estimated $65 million in the expansion of its manufacturing operations in Costa Rica, a process that began in 2020 and continued until 2024, with a focus on producing surgical components for spinal surgeries.
Peer Outperformance in Health Care Equipment
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDT | Medtronic | 6.0% | 22.5x | 0.0% | 24.8% | -16.3% | — |
| ITGR | Integer | 8.4% | 33.4x | 22.2% | 58.1% | 43.8% | +60pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health Care Distributors | 6 | 16.2% | 43.6% | 89.3% | CAH 387% · MCK 344% · COR 167% |
| Health Care Services | 20 | 21.1% | 38.6% | 1.2% | HIMS 248% · RDNT 176% · DGX 76% |
| Managed Health Care | 8 | 40.4% | -3.7% | 0.8% | OSCR 87% · HQY 54% · ELV 17% |
| Health Care Facilities | 24 | 6.0% | 4.6% | -9.2% | NHC 272% · THC 265% · ENSG 129% |
| Health Care Equipment ← | 50 | -2.7% | -3.3% | -20.5% | POCI 11050% · UFPT 344% · GKOS 216% |
| Pharmaceuticals | 62 | -10.5% | 14.7% | -38.8% | LQDA 2512% · INDV 1092% · ETON 1040% |
| Health Care Supplies | 12 | 14.1% | -11.1% | -40.0% | LNTH 290% · HAE 57% · MMSI 19% |
| Life Sciences Tools & Services | 109 | 4.3% | -12.6% | -67.5% | SNWV 1757% · MEDP 235% · NTRA 209% |
| Health Care Technology | 21 | -25.8% | -52.4% | -79.1% | SPOK 69% · HSTM 3% · VEEV -12% |
| Biotechnology | 364 | 0.6% | -21.4% | -79.3% | CELZ 1280% · DNTH 1217% · ELVN 1080% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 186.30 |
| Mkt Cap | 128.6 |
| Rev LTM | 31,689 |
| Op Inc LTM | 6,381 |
| FCF LTM | 5,417 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 4,685 |
| CFO LTM | 6,780 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 5,964 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.7% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 20.9% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 11.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 21.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 19.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 21.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 17.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 128.6 |
| P/S | 4.0 |
| P/Op Inc | 21.6 |
| P/EBIT | 19.9 |
| P/E | 29.6 |
| P/CFO | 18.6 |
| Total Yield | 5.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.3% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 6.8% |
| 6M Rtn | -9.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -16.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 16.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -5.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 4.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -26.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -31.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -55.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiovascular | 13,976 | 12,481 | 11,831 | 11,573 |
| Neuroscience | 10,287 | 9,846 | 9,406 | 8,959 |
| Medical Surgical | 8,815 | 8,407 | 8,417 | 8,433 |
| Other operating segment | 3,247 | 2,892 | 2,710 | |
| Other adjustments | 39 | -90 | ||
| Diabetes | 2,262 | |||
| Total | 36,364 | 33,536 | 32,364 | 31,227 |
| $ Mil | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiovascular | 3,672 | 3,344 | 3,078 | 4,435 |
| Neuroscience | 3,062 | 3,031 | 2,822 | 3,617 |
| Medical Surgical | 2,128 | 2,071 | 2,193 | 2,856 |
| Other operating segment | 106 | 214 | 96 | |
| Other adjustments | 39 | -90 | ||
| Currency and other | -112 | -14 | 81 | 465 |
| Certain litigation charges, net | -113 | -317 | -149 | 30 |
| Acquisition and divestiture-related items | -173 | -124 | -777 | -110 |
| Restructuring and associated costs | -370 | -303 | -389 | -647 |
| Amortization of intangible assets | -1,772 | -1,807 | -1,693 | -1,698 |
| Medical device regulations | -52 | -119 | -150 | |
| Centralized distribution costs | -1,624 | |||
| Commitments to the Medtronic Foundation and Medtronic LABS | -70 | |||
| Corporate | -1,763 | |||
| Diabetes | 378 | |||
| Divestiture and separation-related items | -235 | |||
| Impairment of abandoned intangible assets | 0 | |||
| In-process research and development (IPR&D) charges | 0 | |||
| Mechanical Circulatory Support (MCS) Impairments / Costs | 0 | |||
| Total | 6,467 | 5,953 | 5,143 | 5,484 |
| $ Mil | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medical Surgical | 32,535 | 33,317 | 33,586 | 36,248 | 36,940 |
| Corporate | 19,598 | 18,906 | 17,455 | 16,373 | 18,837 |
| Neuroscience | 18,514 | 18,476 | 18,270 | 18,346 | 16,917 |
| Cardiovascular | 17,553 | 16,548 | 16,128 | 16,051 | 14,490 |
| Other operating segment | 4,827 | 4,433 | 547 | ||
| Diabetes | 3,996 | 3,930 | 3,797 | ||
| Total | 93,027 | 91,680 | 89,982 | 90,948 | 90,981 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $92.13 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 118.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/31/1981 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -10.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $88.70 | $88.32 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | up |
| Distance from DMA | 3.9% | 4.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 26.7% | 23.6% |
| Downside Capture | -91.55 | 8.79 |
| Upside Capture | 2.50 | 7.30 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -15.1% | 8.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.03 | -0.34 | -0.12 | 0.22 | 0.15 | 0.37 |
| Up Beta | -0.28 | -1.02 | -0.67 | 0.23 | 0.39 | 0.46 |
| Down Beta | 2.67 | 0.74 | 0.75 | 0.50 | 0.14 | 0.43 |
| Up Capture | 37% | 21% | 23% | 4% | 5% | 8% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 23 | 35 | 58 | 116 | 391 |
| Down Capture | -100% | -118% | -98% | 25% | 11% | 50% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 19 | 29 | 68 | 134 | 356 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MDT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDT | 0.6% | 23.6% | -0.04 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 24.4% | 16.1% | 1.16 | 60.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.9% | 12.9% | 0.94 | 8.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.1% | 29.3% | 0.60 | 10.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 46.3% | 20.6% | 1.73 | -10.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 13.6% | 0.10 | 35.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -30.6% | 44.3% | -0.70 | -0.4% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MDT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDT | -3.9% | 22.5% | -0.23 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 6.4% | 15.2% | 0.24 | 57.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.9% | 17.2% | 0.57 | 39.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.1% | 18.8% | 0.83 | 8.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.2% | 19.5% | 0.45 | 5.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.1% | 18.8% | -0.05 | 46.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 12.5% | 52.5% | 0.42 | 14.9% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MDT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDT | 3.4% | 23.5% | 0.14 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 10.6% | 16.7% | 0.51 | 65.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 18.0% | 0.72 | 56.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.1% | 16.4% | 0.61 | 5.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.3% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 16.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.4% | 20.7% | 0.18 | 55.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 62.6% | 66.2% | 1.02 | 11.3% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/11/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 9/1/2026 | 1.5% | 1.9% | |
| 6/3/2026 | 5.7% | 11.2% | 13.8% |
| 2/17/2026 | -3.1% | -0.9% | -11.1% |
| 11/18/2025 | 4.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% |
| 8/19/2025 | -3.1% | -0.8% | 1.9% |
| 5/21/2025 | -2.3% | -5.9% | -0.0% |
| 2/18/2025 | -7.3% | -2.8% | -0.6% |
| 11/19/2024 | -3.0% | -2.1% | -8.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 9 | 9 |
| # Negative | 12 | 15 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 2.7% | 4.4% | 3.2% |
| Median Negative | -3.1% | -2.8% | -4.8% |
| Max Positive | 5.7% | 11.2% | 13.8% |
| Max Negative | -7.3% | -8.7% | -13.6% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 9/1/2026 | 1.5% | 1.9% | |
| 6/3/2026 | 5.7% | 11.2% | 13.8% |
| 2/17/2026 | -3.1% | -0.9% | -11.1% |
| 11/18/2025 | 4.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% |
| 8/19/2025 | -3.1% | -0.8% | 1.9% |
| 5/21/2025 | -2.3% | -5.9% | -0.0% |
| 2/18/2025 | -7.3% | -2.8% | -0.6% |
| 11/19/2024 | -3.0% | -2.1% | -8.6% |
| 8/20/2024 | 0.7% | 5.3% | 3.9% |
| 5/23/2024 | -5.1% | -6.0% | -5.5% |
| 2/20/2024 | 1.7% | -0.9% | -0.4% |
| 11/21/2023 | 4.6% | 4.6% | 8.1% |
| 8/22/2023 | 2.6% | -0.3% | -0.2% |
| 5/25/2023 | -4.5% | -5.4% | 0.2% |
| 2/21/2023 | 0.8% | -1.7% | -4.2% |
| 11/22/2022 | -5.3% | -7.1% | -5.4% |
| 8/23/2022 | -3.1% | -4.5% | -7.9% |
| 5/26/2022 | -5.8% | -6.7% | -13.6% |
| 2/22/2022 | 3.1% | 4.4% | 8.3% |
| 11/23/2021 | -3.0% | -8.7% | -12.8% |
| 8/24/2021 | 3.2% | 4.2% | 0.3% |
| 5/27/2021 | -0.9% | -2.5% | -0.6% |
| 2/23/2021 | 1.9% | 1.8% | -0.6% |
| 11/24/2020 | 2.8% | 1.1% | 3.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 9 | 9 |
| # Negative | 12 | 15 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 2.7% | 4.4% | 3.2% |
| Median Negative | -3.1% | -2.8% | -4.8% |
| Max Positive | 5.7% | 11.2% | 13.8% |
| Max Negative | -7.3% | -8.7% | -13.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 07/31/2026 | 09/03/2026 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2026 | 06/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 01/31/2026 | 02/24/2026 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2025 | 11/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2025 | 08/26/2025 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2025 | 06/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 01/31/2025 | 02/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2024 | 11/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 08/27/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 06/20/2024 | 10-K |
| 01/31/2024 | 02/27/2024 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2023 | 11/30/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 08/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 06/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 01/31/2023 | 03/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2022 | 12/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 07/31/2026 | 09/03/2026 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2026 | 06/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 01/31/2026 | 02/24/2026 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2025 | 11/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2025 | 08/26/2025 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2025 | 06/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 01/31/2025 | 02/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2024 | 11/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 08/27/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 06/20/2024 | 10-K |
| 01/31/2024 | 02/27/2024 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2023 | 11/30/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 08/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 06/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 01/31/2023 | 03/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2022 | 12/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2022 | 09/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2022 | 06/23/2022 | 10-K |
| 01/31/2022 | 03/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2021 | 12/02/2021 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2021 | 09/02/2021 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2021 | 06/25/2021 | 10-K |
| 01/31/2021 | 03/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2020 | 12/03/2020 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2020 | 09/03/2020 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2020 | 06/19/2020 | 10-K |
| 01/31/2020 | 02/28/2020 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2019 | 12/03/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 9/2/2026Latest: Q1 2027 Earnings Reported 9/1/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2027 Organic Revenue Growth | Reported | 7.25% | 7.5% | 7.75% | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 7.0% for 2027 | |
| 2027 Diluted Non-GAAP EPS | Reported | 5.94 | 5.97 | 6 | 0.3% | Raised | Guidance: 5.95 for 2027 | |
Prior: Q4 2026 Earnings Reported 6/3/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2027 Organic Revenue Growth | Reported | 6.75% | 7.0% | 7.25% | 27.3% | 1.5% | Higher New | Actual: 5.5% for 2026 |
| 2027 Diluted non-GAAP EPS | Reported | 5.9 | 5.95 | 6 | 5.5% | Higher New | Actual: 5.64 for 2026 | |
| 2027 Diluted non-GAAP EPS Growth | Reported | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 68.9% | 3.1% | Higher New | Actual: 4.5% for 2026 |
Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 2/17/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Organic Revenue Growth | Reported | 5.5% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 5.5% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Diluted Non-GAAP EPS | Reported | 5.62 | 5.64 | 5.66 | Affirmed | Guidance: 5.64 for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Diluted Non-GAAP EPS Growth | Reported | 4.5% | ||||||
Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 11/18/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Organic Revenue Growth | Reported | 5.5% | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 5.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Diluted non-GAAP EPS | Reported | 5.62 | 5.64 | 5.66 | Raised | Guidance: 5.63 for 2026 | ||
Insider Activity
Updated 9/17/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kiil, Harry Skip | EVP & President Cardiovascular | Direct | Sell | 9172026 | 93.65 | 1,483 | 138,883 | 3,950,719 | Form |
| 2 | Walter, Matthew R | SVP, Chief HR Officer | Direct | Sell | 7092026 | 83.15 | 3,102 | 257,931 | 2,967,956 | Form |
| 3 | Kiil, Harry Skip | EVP & President Cardiovascular | Direct | Sell | 6092026 | 80.44 | 4,189 | 336,965 | 2,994,560 | Form |
| 4 | Kiil, Harry Skip | EVP & President Cardiovascular | Direct | Sell | 2262026 | 97.71 | 52,524 | 5,132,217 | 3,201,822 | Form |
| 5 | Smith, Gregory L | EVP Global Ops & Supply Chain | Direct | Sell | 11212025 | 101.95 | 30,000 | 3,058,451 | 4,691,256 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kiil, Harry Skip | EVP & President Cardiovascular | Direct | Sell | 9172026 | 93.65 | 1,483 | 138,883 | 3,950,719 | Form |
| 2 | Walter, Matthew R | SVP, Chief HR Officer | Direct | Sell | 7092026 | 83.15 | 3,102 | 257,931 | 2,967,956 | Form |
| 3 | Kiil, Harry Skip | EVP & President Cardiovascular | Direct | Sell | 6092026 | 80.44 | 4,189 | 336,965 | 2,994,560 | Form |
| 4 | Kiil, Harry Skip | EVP & President Cardiovascular | Direct | Sell | 2262026 | 97.71 | 52,524 | 5,132,217 | 3,201,822 | Form |
| 5 | Smith, Gregory L | EVP Global Ops & Supply Chain | Direct | Sell | 11212025 | 101.95 | 30,000 | 3,058,451 | 4,691,256 | Form |
| 6 | Kiil, Harry Skip | EVP & President Cardiovascular | Direct | Sell | 9052025 | 91.58 | 8,605 | 788,048 | 3,261,630 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Sep 20, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boone Capital Management LLC | $34.5 Mil | 10.6% | 13 | TRIM -7.2% | 13F |
| Talaria Asset Management Pty Ltd | $43.1 Mil | 8.7% | 12 | Hold | 13F |
| Saratoga Research & Investment Management | $101.9 Mil | 5.8% | 46 | Hold | 13F |
| Sector Gamma AS | $24.3 Mil | 5.7% | 42 | Hold | 13F |
| St. James Investment Company, LLC | $26.4 Mil | 4.1% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| Colrain Capital LLC | $9.2 Mil | 3.5% | 26 | ADD +92.7% | 13F |
| Kiltearn Partners LLP | $13.0 Mil | 3.5% | 25 | TRIM -17.3% | 13F |
| Nepsis Inc. | $7.7 Mil | 2.6% | 29 | Hold | 13F |
| Randolph Co Inc | $26.8 Mil | 2.6% | 43 | Hold | 13F |
| Sound Shore Management Inc /CT/ | $71.5 Mil | 2.4% | 40 | New | 13F |
| Avidity Partners Management LP | $8.7 Mil | 1.8% | 45 | TRIM -7.1% | 13F |
| Central Securities Corp | $21.7 Mil | 1.8% | 30 | Hold | 13F |
| Westchester Capital Management, Inc. | $8.8 Mil | 1.8% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vantage Wealth | $19.7 Mil | 4.3% | 30 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Kiltearn Partners LLP | $13.0 Mil | 3.5% | 25 | TRIM -17.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Boone Capital Management LLC | $34.5 Mil | 10.6% | 13 | TRIM -7.2% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Avidity Partners Management LP | $8.1 Mil | 1.8% | 46 | TRIM -7.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saratoga Research & Investment Management | $101.9 Mil | 5.8% | 46 | Hold | 13F |
| Sound Shore Management Inc /CT/ | $71.5 Mil | 2.4% | 40 | New | 13F |
| Talaria Asset Management Pty Ltd | $43.1 Mil | 8.7% | 12 | Hold | 13F |
| Boone Capital Management LLC | $34.5 Mil | 10.6% | 13 | TRIM -7.2% | 13F |
| Randolph Co Inc | $26.8 Mil | 2.6% | 43 | Hold | 13F |
| St. James Investment Company, LLC | $26.4 Mil | 4.1% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| Sector Gamma AS | $24.3 Mil | 5.7% | 42 | Hold | 13F |
| Central Securities Corp | $21.7 Mil | 1.8% | 30 | Hold | 13F |
| Kiltearn Partners LLP | $13.0 Mil | 3.5% | 25 | TRIM -17.3% | 13F |
| Colrain Capital LLC | $9.2 Mil | 3.5% | 26 | ADD +92.7% | 13F |
| Westchester Capital Management, Inc. | $8.8 Mil | 1.8% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Avidity Partners Management LP | $8.1 Mil | 1.8% | 46 | TRIM -7.1% | 13F |
| Nepsis Inc. | $7.7 Mil | 2.6% | 29 | Hold | 13F |
MDT Trade Sentinel
High Conviction
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Growth is accelerating across multiple large business lines, driven by new product adoption and market share gains. Management is executing consistently on new launches and has raised full-year guidance. The upcoming separation of a lower-growth business provides a clear catalyst for an improved portfolio profile.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Diversified Product Portfolio (Recurring Consumption)(Volume of medical procedures using company devices) x (Average selling price per device) Mix shift towards higher-margin, innovative products (like PFA catheters) and operating leverage from scaling new platforms and managing overhead costs.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Yes. Growth accelerated to 13.7% in the latest quarter, and the company raised its full-year organic growth guidance to a range of 7.25% to 7.75%.
- Cardiac Ablation Solutions worldwide growth was 88% in the latest quarter.
- Cranial & Spinal Technologies growth accelerated to 13% in Q1.
- FY2027 organic revenue growth guidance was raised to a range of 7.25% to 7.75%.
- The U.S. Affera installed base grew more than 35% sequentially in Q1.
- The Hugo robotic surgery system is seeing procedure growth at more than twice the market rate.
PRIMARY RISK
Trailing operating margin of 19% lags peers and declined 0.4 percentage points year-over-year. This is due to unfavorable mix from new capital sales and the lower-margin Diabetes business. A key competitor also noted increased competitive pressure in the U.S. electrophysiology market.
- Trailing-twelve-month operating margin is 19%, below peers like Boston Scientific at 21%.
- Product mix was unfavorable by 50 basis points in Q1, reflecting new product ramps.
- A peer noted it 'did not anticipate the degree of competitive share movement' in the U.S. market.
- Operating expenses grew 10.1% year-over-year, slightly outpacing 9.8% revenue growth.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiac Ablation Solutions (CAS) Revenue Growth | 88% worldwide growth in Q1 FY27 - Accelerating | The Cardiac Ablation Solutions business is demonstrating sustained, high-level growth and re-accelerated in the most recent quarter. Management commentary from the September earnings call attributes this to strong execution and the performance of its PFA platform, noting a 9-point increase in U.S. share during the quarter. |
| Cranial & Spinal Technologies (CST) Revenue Growth | 13% worldwide growth in Q1 FY27 - Accelerating | This core business showed a major acceleration in the latest quarter. According to the September earnings call, this was driven by the AiBLE ecosystem, which integrates AI-driven planning and robotics, and a strong launch of the new Stealth AXiS platform. |
| Cardiac Ablation Solutions (CAS) Worldwide Growth | 88% (Q1 FY2027) | Market rewards Management expects CAS to grow at more than 2.5x the market rate for fiscal year 2027.. This signals rapid market share gains in the high-growth electrophysiology market, driven by the company's pulsed field ablation (PFA) platform. |
| U.S. Affera Installed Base Sequential Growth | more than 35% (Q1 FY2027) | Indicates strong demand for the company's PFA capital equipment, which serves as a leading indicator for future sales of higher-margin disposable catheters. |
| Hugo RAS System Procedure Growth | more than twice the market rate (Q1 FY2027) | Demonstrates increasing adoption and utilization of Medtronic's robotic-assisted surgery platform, a key long-term growth driver. |
New Product Momentum vs. Margin Headwinds
BULL VIEW
Bulls believe the 88% growth in Cardiac Ablation and 13% rebound in Cranial & Spinal signal a durable, broad-based acceleration that will drive operating leverage, justifying the company's raised full-year guidance.
CORE TENSION
Can accelerating revenue from new products (13.7% latest quarter) overcome margin pressure from unfavorable mix (-50 bps impact) and a competitive 19% operating margin?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bulls. The company delivered a beat-and-raise quarter, with growth broadening beyond just one product line and management guiding to margin expansion for FY2027.
BEAR VIEW
Bears see the 19% operating margin, which lags peers, as a structural issue. They fear growth will slow against tougher comparisons, while competitive pressure and unfavorable product mix will continue to weigh on profitability.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
October 9, 2026 | MiniMed Separation Disruption Watch: Market reaction to the final exchange ratio and completion, and any disclosures on separation costs or stranded overhead. |
October 9, 2026 | MiniMed Separation Exchange Offer Expiration Watch: The exchange offer to complete the separation of the MiniMed business is scheduled to expire. |
10/13/2026 | Peer Commentary on Market Conditions Watch: Peer commentary on procedure volumes, hospital spending, and competitive dynamics in surgical robotics, EP, and cardiovascular markets. |
10/19/2026 | Peer ISRG Earnings Report Watch: Peer Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) is scheduled to report earnings. |
11/16/2026 | Growth Sustainability Scrutiny Watch: Q2 organic growth rate, specifically for the CAS business, and any change to the full-year guidance. |
second half of this fiscal year | Ardian Transradial Catheter Launch Watch: The company's transradial catheter for the Ardian renal denervation system is on track to launch. |
December 10 and 11 | Company Investor Day Event Watch: The company will hold an Investor Day to provide a deeper look at its portfolio, pipeline, and capital allocation strategy. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-09-14 | Launched MiniMed Separation Exchange Offer Details: The company commenced an exchange offer to split off at least 80.1% of the shares of MiniMed Group, Inc., the final step in separating its former Diabetes business. | +3.1% $90.96 -> $93.75 |
2026-09-01 | Reported Q1 FY27 Beat and Raise Details: The company reported strong Q1 FY27 results with 13.7% latest-quarter revenue growth and raised its full-year guidance for both organic revenue growth and non-GAAP EPS. | +1.7% $90.65 -> $92.18 |
2026-08-06 | Affera System CE Mark Expanded Details: The Affera Mapping and Ablation System and Sphere-9 Catheter received an expanded CE Mark indication for the treatment of ventricular arrhythmias. | +1.4% $85.99 -> $87.16 |
2026-07-16 | SPR Therapeutics Acquisition Completed Details: Medtronic completed its acquisition of SPR Therapeutics, adding the SPRINT PNS technology for temporary peripheral nerve stimulation to its pain therapy portfolio. | +3.4% $80.47 -> $83.20 |
2026-06-03 | Reported Strong Q4 FY26 Results Details: The company reported its highest annual revenue growth in 10 years for fiscal 2026. The two-day stock reaction around the June 3, 2026 earnings call was 11.0%. | +11.1% $73.09 -> $81.20 |
2026-04-20 | CathWorks Acquisition Completed Details: The company completed its acquisition of CathWorks, a medical device company with an FFRangio System that employs AI and computational science for physiological assessment in cardiovascular care. | -4.9% $85.42 -> $81.27 |
2026-03-23 | OmniaSecure Lead FDA Approval Details: The OmniaSecure defibrillation lead received FDA approval for an expanded indication for conduction system pacing, making it the first of its kind approved for placement in the left bundle branch area. | +0.5% $84.70 -> $85.11 |
Position Sizing
5% - 7%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: MDT trades at roughly 25% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 13% for the S&P 500 (1.8x the market), around the 72nd percentile of its own trailing year. A 5% - 7% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
BSX - Boston Scientific
Focused High-Growth PeerBoston Scientific offers more concentrated exposure to high-growth cardiovascular markets and currently has a higher operating margin of 21% versus Medtronic's 19%.
ISRG - Intuitive Surgical
Robotics Pure-PlayA med-tech giant re-architecting its portfolio for higher growth by divesting its slower, lower-margin Diabetes business while doubling down on high-potential markets like cardiac ablation and surgical robotics.
Medtronic is in a period of strategic acceleration, focusing its capital and execution on its most promising growth platforms. The company is leveraging its scale in core franchises like Cardiac Rhythm Management and Spine while aggressively pushing new technologies like the Affera PFA system and the Hugo robot. The final-stage separation of the MiniMed (Diabetes) business is a key catalyst, expected to improve both the growth and margin profile of the remaining company.
Sustained high-double-digit growth in Cardiac Ablation Solutions, successful U.S. commercialization and indication expansion for the Hugo robot, and a smooth, value-accretive completion of the MiniMed separation.
A slowdown in the PFA franchise due to competitive pressure, significant setbacks in the Hugo robot rollout, or a decline in the core Cardiovascular or Neuroscience businesses.
Minor quarterly fluctuations in mature product lines or foreign exchange impacts.
Repricing Catalyst
The final separation of the MiniMed (Diabetes) business via an exchange offer launched in September 2026, which will complete the portfolio simplification and allow for a clearer focus on the higher-growth 'New Medtronic'.
Cardiovascular
$14.0B TTM (38% of Total) · 26% MarginWhat It Is
Sells a wide range of products for cardiac rhythm disorders, heart failure, and vascular diseases to specialists like electrophysiologists, cardiologists, and cardiovascular surgeons. Products include pacemakers, defibrillators, heart valves, stents, and cardiac ablation systems.
Who Pays & How
Hospitals and physicians purchase these devices and are reimbursed by government and private payors. Payors cover these life-saving or life-enhancing therapies for conditions like heart rhythm disorders and structural heart disease.
Competition
Neuroscience
$10.3B TTM (28% of Total) · 30% MarginWhat It Is
Sells implants and instruments for spinal and cranial procedures, neurostimulation devices for pain and movement disorders, and therapies for stroke and pelvic health. Customers include spinal surgeons, neurosurgeons, neurologists, and pain management specialists.
Who Pays & How
Hospitals and physicians purchase these products for complex neurological and spinal procedures, with reimbursement from third-party payors. Payors cover these treatments for conditions like degenerative disc disease, Parkinson's disease, and acute stroke.
Competition
Medical Surgical
$8.8B TTM (24% of Total) · 24% MarginWhat It Is
Sells advanced surgical instruments, patient monitoring systems, and respiratory products to hospitals, ambulatory surgical centers (ASCs), and physicians' offices. Products include stapling devices, vessel sealing instruments (LigaSure), and the Hugo robotic-assisted surgery (RAS) system.
Who Pays & How
Healthcare systems and providers purchase these products for a broad range of surgical and patient monitoring applications, with costs reimbursed by payors as part of the overall procedure.
Competition
Medtronic — Investor Video Playlist
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