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Oscar Health (OSCR)


Market Price (12/17/2025): $15.75 | Market Cap: $4.1 Bil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Managed Health Care

Oscar Health (OSCR)


Market Price (12/17/2025): $15.75
Market Cap: $4.1 Bil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Managed Health Care

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -48%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -9.1%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%
  Key risks
OSCR key risks include [1] its ongoing challenge to achieve sustained profitability and manage costs and [2] its ability to successfully execute its growth strategy, Show more.
2 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 15%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Telehealth Platforms, Health Data Analytics, and AI in Healthcare Management.
  
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -48%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%
2 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 15%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Telehealth Platforms, Health Data Analytics, and AI in Healthcare Management.
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -9.1%
6 Key risks
OSCR key risks include [1] its ongoing challenge to achieve sustained profitability and manage costs and [2] its ability to successfully execute its growth strategy, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

OSCR Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

**1. Profitability Challenges and Negative EBITDA**

Oscar Health continued to face significant profitability challenges, reporting negative EBITDA and substantial operating losses. For the third quarter of 2025, the company reported an adjusted EBITDA loss of $101.5 million, a notable increase from the $11.6 million loss in the third quarter of 2024. Additionally, loss from operations for Q3 2025 was $129.3 million, up from $48.4 million in Q3 2024. The second quarter of 2025 also saw a net loss of $228.4 million and an operating loss of $230 million. **2. Rising Medical Loss Ratio (MLR) and Healthcare Costs**

A significant increase in Oscar Health's medical loss ratio (MLR) indicated that a larger portion of premiums was being used to cover claims, negatively impacting financial performance. The MLR rose to 88.5% for the third quarter of 2025, compared to 84.6% for the same period in 2024. In the second quarter of 2025, the MLR reached 91.1%, primarily due to elevated healthcare costs and an increase in morbidity within the Affordable Care Act (ACA) market. This trend of higher utilization of services by members contributed to the company's operating losses. **3. Uncertainty in Underwriting Cycle and Policy-Driven Disruptions**

The downturn in the underwriting cycle introduced volatility and low visibility regarding Oscar Health's ability to achieve long-term profitability targets. Furthermore, policy-driven disruptions, such as potential changes related to ACA subsidies and the looming expiration of enhanced ACA subsidies in 2025, created uncertainty about the company's sustained growth and financial trajectory. **4. Analyst Downgrades and Cautious Outlook**

Analysts expressed a cautious outlook for Oscar Health, with some downgrading the stock due to ongoing concerns. In July 2025, Wells Fargo downgraded Oscar to "Underweight," citing rising acuity in the exchange market and questions about the adequacy of its 2025 pricing model. Barclays also issued an "Underweight" rating, focusing on policy risks. In December 2025, Stephens initiated coverage with an "Equal Weight" (Hold) rating, reflecting mixed prospects attributed to profitability volatility and challenges in reaching mature profitability. **5. Concerns about Path to Profitability and 2025 Guidance**

Despite experiencing strong revenue growth, Oscar Health's projected path to profitability, particularly for 2026, faced scrutiny from analysts who raised concerns about factors such as risk adjustment mechanisms and the adequacy of capital reserves. The company's revised full-year 2025 outlook, issued in July 2025, anticipated a medical loss ratio of 86.0% to 87.0% and a loss from operations ranging from $200 million to $300 million, signaling increased financial risk.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
OSCR Return-69%272%47%20%
Peers Return19%38%7%-3%-21%-20%8%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%110%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
OSCR Win Rate22%33%67%67%42% 
Peers Win Rate55%57%52%47%45%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
OSCR Max Drawdown-73%0%-5%-14% 
Peers Max Drawdown-33%-7%-14%-19%-27%-40% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: UNH, HUM, CNC, MOH, ELV.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/16/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventOSCRS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-94.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1610.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to UNH, HUM, CNC, MOH, ELV


In The Past

Oscar Health's stock fell -94.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/10/2021. A -94.2% loss requires a 1610.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Oscar Health (OSCR)

Better Bets than Oscar Health (OSCR)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to OSCR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%16.3%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.1%-7.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.6%3.6%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
1.6%1.6%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-5.1%
OSCR_9302023_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG09302023OSCROscar HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
167.0%276.8%-12.9%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%16.3%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.1%-7.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.6%3.6%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
1.6%1.6%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-5.1%
OSCR_9302023_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG09302023OSCROscar HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
167.0%276.8%-12.9%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Oscar Health

Peers to compare with:

Financials

OSCRUNHHUMCNCMOHELVMedian
NameOscar He.UnitedHe.Humana Centene Molina H.Elevance. 
Mkt Price15.71334.20258.1638.97160.88351.90209.52
Mkt Cap4.1302.831.019.18.478.625.1
Rev LTM11,289435,159126,362185,85744,550194,820156,110
Op Inc LTM-26,357-1,0951,323-1,323
FCF LTM73617,3721,5473,356-5743,7672,452
FCF 3Y Avg39718,9687323,0175194,2951,874
CFO LTM77020,9582,0454,064-4614,9123,054
CFO 3Y Avg42722,4431,4643,7616195,5192,612

Growth & Margins

OSCRUNHHUMCNCMOHELVMedian
NameOscar He.UnitedHe.Humana Centene Molina H.Elevance. 
Rev Chg LTM37.4%10.5%9.9%14.9%13.7%12.0%12.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg46.4%11.4%11.4%9.6%12.8%8.4%11.4%
Rev Chg Q23.2%12.2%11.1%18.2%11.0%12.3%12.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM5.2%2.9%2.6%4.3%2.6%2.9%2.9%
Op Mgn LTM-6.1%-0.6%3.0%-3.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-7.7%-1.7%4.0%-4.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM--1.2%--0.5%-0.8%--0.8%
CFO/Rev LTM6.8%4.8%1.6%2.2%-1.0%2.5%2.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg3.5%5.8%1.4%2.3%2.0%3.1%2.7%
FCF/Rev LTM6.5%4.0%1.2%1.8%-1.3%1.9%1.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg3.1%4.9%0.8%1.9%1.7%2.4%2.2%

Valuation

OSCRUNHHUMCNCMOHELVMedian
NameOscar He.UnitedHe.Humana Centene Molina H.Elevance. 
Mkt Cap4.1302.831.019.18.478.625.1
P/S0.40.70.20.10.20.40.3
P/EBIT-23.011.913.3-4.27.68.58.1
P/E-20.117.824.2-3.311.413.012.2
P/CFO6.414.915.34.3-21.814.710.5
Total Yield-5.0%8.1%5.5%-30.2%8.8%9.8%6.8%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.5%1.4%0.0%0.0%2.1%0.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-1.1%4.5%0.6%11.5%1.8%4.7%3.2%
D/E0.10.30.41.00.40.40.4
Net D/E-0.50.2-0.3-0.1-0.5-0.0-0.2

Returns

OSCRUNHHUMCNCMOHELVMedian
NameOscar He.UnitedHe.Humana Centene Molina H.Elevance. 
1M Rtn13.2%4.5%8.9%7.1%17.0%8.6%8.7%
3M Rtn-12.4%-1.0%-4.9%22.5%-8.8%14.1%-2.9%
6M Rtn-2.5%9.6%7.7%-29.0%-45.0%-5.2%-3.8%
12M Rtn13.0%-31.3%0.5%-34.1%-45.6%-3.9%-17.6%
3Y Rtn583.0%-32.6%-47.1%-52.1%-52.0%-26.7%-39.9%
1M Excs Rtn12.2%3.5%7.9%6.1%16.0%7.6%7.7%
3M Excs Rtn-14.6%-4.5%-6.9%18.7%-11.8%11.6%-5.7%
6M Excs Rtn-16.1%-4.0%-6.0%-42.7%-58.6%-18.9%-17.5%
12M Excs Rtn2.8%-46.0%-16.4%-45.2%-58.2%-17.6%-31.4%
3Y Excs Rtn413.4%-107.4%-122.9%-127.7%-125.7%-102.7%-115.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment5,8634,1261,921590554
Total5,8634,1261,921590554


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity31,317,201
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-2.0%
Average Daily Volume17,397,180
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.80
Basic Shares Quantity259,273,000
Short % of Basic Shares12.1%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/6/2025-2.8%-11.3%-1.8%
7/22/20257.9%7.7%22.1%
5/7/202530.2%29.5%19.7%
2/4/20253.1%-7.7%2.2%
11/7/2024-12.3%-13.3%0.4%
8/7/2024-3.1%6.1%1.0%
5/7/20244.2%15.7%3.8%
2/7/202424.4%26.0%9.1%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121113
# Negative786
Median Positive12.0%18.9%16.7%
Median Negative-3.9%-9.5%-9.2%
Max Positive30.3%47.6%42.9%
Max Negative-24.5%-29.2%-34.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024220202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023215202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231107202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022224202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022812202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022512202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021225202210-K 12/31/2021