HF Sinclair (DINO)
Market Price (8/1/2026): $91.9 | Market Cap: $16.5 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
HF Sinclair (DINO)
Market Price (8/1/2026): $91.9Market Cap: $16.5 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 2.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.5%, FCF Yield is 14% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.0 Bil Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 2.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.2 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 37% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and US Energy Independence. Themes include Renewable Fuel Production, and Domestic Oil & Gas Refining. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.0%, Dist 3Y High is -1.0% | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 116% Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.8% Key risksDINO key risks include [1] headwinds on its refining margins from weaker spreads and increased global capacity and [2] regulatory uncertainty threatening the profitability of its renewable diesel operations. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 2.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.5%, FCF Yield is 14% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.0 Bil |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 2.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.2 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 37% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and US Energy Independence. Themes include Renewable Fuel Production, and Domestic Oil & Gas Refining. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.0%, Dist 3Y High is -1.0% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 116% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.8% |
| Key risksDINO key risks include [1] headwinds on its refining margins from weaker spreads and increased global capacity and [2] regulatory uncertainty threatening the profitability of its renewable diesel operations. |
Qualitative Assessment
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HF Sinclair (DINO) stock has gained about 35% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. HF Sinclair reported exceptional fiscal Q2 2026 financial results, significantly surpassing analyst expectations. The company's adjusted earnings per share reached $5.31, exceeding the consensus estimate of $4.49 by $0.82. Total revenue for the quarter was $10.39 billion, beating analyst estimates of $8.68 billion by approximately 19.7%. This robust performance was largely driven by a 57.3% increase in adjusted refinery gross margin to $25.95 per produced barrel sold, along with improved refinery utilization of 94.3%. The positive momentum from a strong fiscal Q1 2026 earnings beat, announced on May 1, 2026, where the company reported $0.69 EPS against a consensus of ($0.06), also contributed to the upward trend.
2. The company announced a strategic transformation, including plans to pursue a separation of its Lubricants & Specialties segment. On July 28, 2026, HF Sinclair declared its intention to spin off its Lubricants & Specialties business into a new, independent, publicly traded company through the capital markets. This strategic move is aimed at unlocking value by creating a capital-light business model for the standalone lubricants entity, which is expected to achieve higher valuation multiples, while allowing the remaining HF Sinclair to focus on its integrated refining, midstream, marketing, and renewables operations. Additionally, as part of this transformation, HF Sinclair plans to retire its base oil refining assets in Mississauga, Ontario, by 2027.
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HF Sinclair (DINO) stock has gained about 35% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. HF Sinclair reported exceptional fiscal Q2 2026 financial results, significantly surpassing analyst expectations. The company's adjusted earnings per share reached $5.31, exceeding the consensus estimate of $4.49 by $0.82. Total revenue for the quarter was $10.39 billion, beating analyst estimates of $8.68 billion by approximately 19.7%. This robust performance was largely driven by a 57.3% increase in adjusted refinery gross margin to $25.95 per produced barrel sold, along with improved refinery utilization of 94.3%. The positive momentum from a strong fiscal Q1 2026 earnings beat, announced on May 1, 2026, where the company reported $0.69 EPS against a consensus of ($0.06), also contributed to the upward trend.
2. The company announced a strategic transformation, including plans to pursue a separation of its Lubricants & Specialties segment. On July 28, 2026, HF Sinclair declared its intention to spin off its Lubricants & Specialties business into a new, independent, publicly traded company through the capital markets. This strategic move is aimed at unlocking value by creating a capital-light business model for the standalone lubricants entity, which is expected to achieve higher valuation multiples, while allowing the remaining HF Sinclair to focus on its integrated refining, midstream, marketing, and renewables operations. Additionally, as part of this transformation, HF Sinclair plans to retire its base oil refining assets in Mississauga, Ontario, by 2027.
3. HF Sinclair enhanced shareholder returns through a dividend increase and significant share repurchases. Concurrent with its strong fiscal Q2 2026 results, the company announced a 5% increase in its regular quarterly dividend to $0.525 per share, payable in September 2026. In fiscal Q2 2026 alone, HF Sinclair returned $265 million to stockholders, comprising $89 million in regular dividends and $179 million in share repurchases, demonstrating a commitment to capital allocation.
4. Favorable macroeconomic conditions, particularly elevated refining margins, bolstered profitability. The refining industry experienced a positive environment with refined product crack spreads and margins surging to four-year highs in early July 2026. HF Sinclair's management indicated that tight market conditions, influenced by approximately 5-7 million barrels per day of global refining capacity outages, are expected to persist into 2027, contributing to sustained profitability. This strong market backdrop for refining significantly underpinned the company's improved financial performance during the period.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 37.0% change in DINO stock from 4/30/2026 to 7/31/2026 was primarily driven by a 184.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 7312026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 66.75 | 91.47 | 37.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 26,869 | 31,228 | 16.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.2% | 6.1% | 184.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 21.1 | 8.6 | -59.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 183 | 179 | 1.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 37.0% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 7/31/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DINO | 37.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.9% | -11.1% |
| Sector (XLE) | -0.2% | 52.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 78.9% change in DINO stock from 1/31/2026 to 7/31/2026 was primarily driven by a 319.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 7312026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 51.11 | 91.47 | 78.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 26,905 | 31,228 | 16.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.5% | 6.1% | 319.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.3 | 8.6 | -64.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 186 | 179 | 3.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 78.9% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 7/31/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DINO | 78.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.3% | -16.1% |
| Sector (XLE) | 17.4% | 49.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 116.0% change in DINO stock from 7/31/2025 to 7/31/2026 was primarily driven by a 77.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 7312026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 42.36 | 91.47 | 116.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 26,861 | 31,228 | 16.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.3 | 0.5 | 77.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 188 | 179 | 4.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 116.0% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 7/31/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DINO | 116.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 19.2% | -0.4% |
| Sector (XLE) | 39.8% | 55.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 98.5% change in DINO stock from 7/31/2023 to 7/31/2026 was primarily driven by a 196.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312023 | 7312026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 46.08 | 91.47 | 98.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 38,311 | 31,228 | -18.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.1% | 6.1% | -24.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 2.9 | 8.6 | 196.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 195 | 179 | 8.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 98.5% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 7/31/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DINO | 98.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 68.9% | 29.2% |
| Sector (XLE) | 48.8% | 64.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| DINO Return | 28% | 62% | 11% | -34% | 38% | 104% | 326% |
| Peers Return | 44% | 114% | 18% | -18% | 23% | 96% | 615% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 98% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| DINO Win Rate | 58% | 67% | 50% | 33% | 58% | 71% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 73% | 53% | 38% | 65% | 74% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| DINO Max Drawdown | -33% | -26% | -35% | -45% | -32% | -16% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -38% | -34% | -27% | -44% | -34% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: VLO, MPC, PSX, PBF, CVI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/31/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | DINO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 37 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -29.9% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.7% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 92 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -13.4% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.4% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -56.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 127.6% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 350 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -34.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.7% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1422 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -43.2% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 75.9% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 676 days | 62 days |
In The Past
HF Sinclair's stock fell -30.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 43.8% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | DINO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 37 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -29.9% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.7% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 92 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -56.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 127.6% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 350 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -34.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.7% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1422 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -43.2% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 75.9% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 676 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -38.5% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.6% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 202 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -29.4% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.7% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 142 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -78.6% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 366.6% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 802 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -29.0% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.9% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1426 days | 47 days |
In The Past
HF Sinclair's stock fell -30.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 43.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About HF Sinclair (DINO)
HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) is an independent energy company primarily engaged in refining crude oil into a diverse range of petroleum products. The company operates a network of refineries strategically located across Kansas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming. Beyond traditional refining, HF Sinclair is actively involved in the growing renewables business, notably producing renewable diesel.
The company's core product offerings include gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, and specialty asphalt, which it markets primarily across the Southwest United States, the Rocky Mountains, and the Pacific Northwest. In addition to fuels, HF Sinclair produces specialty lubricant products, base oils, and chemicals. It also plays a significant role in fuel distribution by supplying to and licensing the Sinclair brand for approximately 1,600 independent stations. Furthermore, the company provides essential logistics services to the petroleum industry, encompassing crude oil and refined product transportation, terminalling, storage, and throughput services.
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Imagine it as the refining and branded gas station operations of a company like Shell or ExxonMobil, but without the oil drilling and production.
Think of it as a major independent oil refiner and fuel marketer, similar to Valero or Marathon Petroleum, that also supplies the Sinclair-branded gas stations.
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- Gasoline, Diesel Fuel, and Jet Fuel: These are refined petroleum products produced and marketed for transportation and other uses.
- Renewable Diesel: A biofuel alternative to traditional diesel fuel.
- Specialty Lubricant Products: Includes base oils and other specialized lubricants for various industrial and automotive applications.
- Specialty Chemicals: Specific chemical products developed for niche applications.
- Specialty and Modified Asphalt: Asphalt products tailored for specific construction and road surfacing needs.
- Refined Products Marketing: The marketing and distribution of its refined fuels to stations and other customers in specific regions.
- Sinclair Brand Licensing: Licensing the use of the Sinclair brand to independent stations.
- Petroleum Logistics Services: Services encompassing petroleum product and crude oil transportation, terminalling, storage, and throughput for the petroleum industry.
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HF Sinclair (DINO) primarily sells its products and services to other companies, operating on a business-to-business (B2B) model. Based on the provided description, its major customer categories include:
- Independent Fuel Station Operators: These are independent businesses that own and operate the approximately 1,600 Sinclair-branded stations. HF Sinclair supplies these stations with gasoline and diesel fuel and licenses the use of the Sinclair brand.
- Wholesale Distributors and Industrial End-Users: This broad category encompasses various businesses that purchase bulk refined products. These include other fuel distributors, airlines (for jet fuel), construction companies (for asphalt), manufacturing firms (for specialty lubricants and chemicals), and large transportation fleets (for diesel fuel).
- Other Petroleum Industry Companies: These are companies within the broader petroleum sector that utilize HF Sinclair's midstream services, including crude oil and petroleum product transportation, terminalling, storage, and throughput services.
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Franklin Myers Interim Chief Executive Officer and President, Chairman of the Board
Franklin Myers has been appointed as the Interim Chief Executive Officer and President of HF Sinclair Corporation since February 17, 2026, and also serves as the Independent Chairman of the Board. He previously held the role of Chairman of the Board.
Vivek Garg Acting Chief Financial Officer, Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer and Controller
Vivek Garg was named interim Chief Financial Officer by HF Sinclair on February 27, 2026. He also holds the titles of Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer, and Controller. He was appointed Chief Accounting Officer and Controller in July 2024.
Valerie Pompa Executive Vice President, Operations
Valerie Pompa has served as Executive Vice President, Operations of HF Sinclair Corporation since March 2023. Prior to this, she was the Senior Vice President, Refining Operations of HF Sinclair Refining & Marketing LLC from October 2020 to April 2023. Ms. Pompa also owned and was CEO of VAP Business Solutions Limited, providing leadership and business consulting services, and served as Chief Operating Officer of ATS Industrial, both from April 2018 to October 2020.
Steven C. Ledbetter Executive Vice President, Commercial
Steven C. Ledbetter has served as Executive Vice President, Commercial of HF Sinclair Corporation since March 2023. Previously, he was Director, President, and Chief Executive Officer of Shell Midstream Partners GP LLC from March 2021 to March 2023. Before that, he served as Vice President, Commercial of Shell Midstream from April 2018 to March 2021.
Eric L. Nitcher Executive Vice President and General Counsel
Eric L. Nitcher holds the position of Executive Vice President and General Counsel at HF Sinclair Corporation. He was appointed to this role in July 2024.
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For HF Sinclair (DINO), an independent energy company primarily involved in refining and marketing petroleum products, the key risks to its business are:
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Energy Transition and Declining Demand for Traditional Fuels: The global shift toward a low-carbon economy, driven by increased adoption of electric vehicles, improved fuel efficiency, and ambitious climate policies, poses a significant long-term risk to the demand for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, which constitute core products for HF Sinclair's refining operations. This transition is expected to lead to reduced refining margins, potential oversupply in the market, and could necessitate costly conversions or closures of traditional refining assets.
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Commodity Price Volatility: The profitability of HF Sinclair, particularly its refining segment, is highly sensitive to fluctuations in the prices of crude oil (its primary input) and refined petroleum products (its outputs). The difference between these prices, known as crack spreads, can be extremely volatile due to geopolitical events, imbalances in global supply and demand, and market speculation. This inherent volatility can lead to unpredictable refining margins and significantly impact the company's financial performance.
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Environmental Regulations and Compliance Costs: The petroleum refining industry operates under extensive and increasingly stringent environmental regulations, including those related to air emissions, clean air standards, and renewable fuel mandates. Compliance with these regulations can impose substantial operating costs, require significant capital investments for facility upgrades, and may limit operational flexibility. Regional regulations, such as those in California where HF Sinclair operates, can further increase compliance burdens and contribute to refinery capacity reductions.
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The widespread global adoption of electric vehicles and other alternative energy sources for transportation, leading to a decline in demand for gasoline and diesel fuel.
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HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) operates in several key markets across the United States, encompassing refined petroleum products, renewable fuels, specialty lubricants, specialty chemicals, specialty asphalt, and midstream services. The addressable market sizes for their main products and services in the specified regions are as follows:
- Refined Petroleum Products (Gasoline, Diesel Fuel, Jet Fuel): The overall U.S. petroleum refining market, which includes these products, was valued at approximately USD 793.3 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach about USD 1,168.3 billion by 2032.
- Gasoline: The North American gasoline market was valued at USD 850.0 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to rise to USD 1,100.0 billion by 2035.
- Diesel Fuel: The U.S. diesel fuel market is estimated to reach USD 60 billion by 2031, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.5% during the forecast period of 2025-2031. U.S. diesel consumption averaged approximately 3.8 million barrels per day in 2023.
- Jet Fuel: The United States aviation fuel market was valued at USD 87.48 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 158.62 billion by 2034.
- Renewable Diesel: The U.S. renewable diesel market is calculated at USD 12.33 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach around USD 22.28 billion by 2034. The U.S. dominated the North American renewable diesel market, holding approximately 90.3% share in 2025 and is expected to generate over USD 26.3 billion in revenue by 2035.
- Specialty Lubricant Products: The U.S. lubricants market, which includes specialty lubricants, was valued at USD 41.71 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to grow to USD 51.03 billion by 2033. More specifically, the U.S. specialty lubricants market had a size of approximately USD 9.63 billion in 2024.
- Specialty Chemicals: The U.S. specialty chemicals market is calculated at USD 201.48 billion in 2025 and is expected to be worth around USD 303.05 billion by 2034.
- Specialty and Modified Asphalt: The U.S. asphalt market size was USD 32.6 million in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 52.9 million by 2032. Another estimate projects the U.S. market to reach USD 70.72 million by 2027. These figures likely represent the specialty segment of the broader asphalt market.
- Petroleum Product and Crude Oil Transportation, Terminalling, Storage, and Throughput Services (Midstream Services): The United States Midstream Oil and Gas Market was valued at USD 17.10 billion in 2025 and is estimated to grow to USD 21.08 billion by 2031.
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HF Sinclair (DINO) is anticipated to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key initiatives and market factors:
- Enhanced Operational Reliability and Increased Throughput in Refining: The company's focus on optimizing refining operations and enhancing reliability is expected to boost revenue. This includes achieving record throughput volumes and specific projects like the El Dorado expansion, which is projected to add approximately 10,000 barrels per day (bpd) to its capacity.
- Growth in the Renewables Business: Efforts within the renewables segment are aimed at boosting revenue. HF Sinclair expects to capture additional incremental value, particularly from producer tax credits, indicating a strategic focus on expanding this part of its business.
- Expansion of Branded Marketing Network: The company is actively expanding its branded marketing presence. With 146 new branded sites added recently and contracts for over 130 additional sites expected to be operational in the next 6-12 months, HF Sinclair anticipates growth in its customer base and refined product sales volumes.
- Midstream Expansion Initiatives: HF Sinclair has identified midstream expansion plans as a key growth initiative. This segment, which provides petroleum product and crude oil transportation, terminalling, storage, and throughput services, achieved record earnings in 2025 and is set for further development.
- Favorable Crude Differentials: Analysts expect HF Sinclair to benefit from widening crude differentials, which should enhance performance in upcoming quarters. These improved crack spreads can lead to higher refining margins and, consequently, increased revenue.
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Share Repurchases
- HF Sinclair returned $724 million to stockholders through dividends and share repurchases in the full year 2025.
- In May 2024, the Board of Directors authorized a $1 billion share repurchase program.
- As of September 16, 2025, approximately $411 million had been repurchased under the $1 billion program, including a $100 million privately negotiated transaction.
Share Issuance
- The formation of HF Sinclair in March 2022 resulted from an all-stock transaction where legacy HollyFrontier Corporation shareholders received 73% equity and Sinclair owners received 27% equity.
- Holly Energy Partners (HEP), an HF Sinclair subsidiary, issued 21 million common units as part of the approximately $670 million acquisition of Sinclair Transportation Company.
Outbound Investments
- In March 2022, HF Sinclair acquired Sinclair Oil's refining and branded marketing businesses.
- Holly Energy Partners (HEP), a subsidiary, acquired Sinclair Transportation Company's logistics assets, including pipelines and terminals, in a transaction valued at approximately $670 million.
- The company makes investments in renewable diesel through joint ventures.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for the fourth quarter of 2025 totaled $131 million.
- For the full year 2025, HF Sinclair anticipated capital spending of $775 million for sustaining capital and an additional $100 million for growth projects.
- The focus of capital expenditures includes strategic investments in renewables, value chain integration, efficiency improvements, and the completion of facilities such as the Cheyenne Renewable Diesel facility (Q1 2022) and the Artesia Renewable Diesel facility (Q2 2022).
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 151.57 |
| Mkt Cap | 50.8 |
| Rev LTM | 84,430 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,262 |
| FCF LTM | 1,491 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,812 |
| CFO LTM | 2,648 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,123 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -4.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 51.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 12.4% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 293.8% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 50.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 2.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 6.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 50.8 |
| P/S | 0.6 |
| P/Op Inc | 9.9 |
| P/EBIT | 9.2 |
| P/E | 16.5 |
| P/CFO | 7.6 |
| Total Yield | 8.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.9% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Refining | 23,822 | 25,340 | 28,673 | 34,413 | 16,359 |
| Marketing | 3,142 | 3,428 | 4,146 | 3,912 | |
| Lubricants & Specialties | 2,526 | 2,712 | 2,775 | 3,159 | 2,561 |
| Renewables | 991 | 991 | 1,189 | 1,015 | 0 |
| Midstream | 643 | 644 | 584 | 540 | 494 |
| Corporate, Other and Eliminations | -4,255 | -4,535 | -5,403 | -4,834 | -1,025 |
| Total | 26,869 | 28,580 | 31,964 | 38,205 | 18,389 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Refining | 563 | -167 | 1,870 | 3,757 | 451 |
| Midstream | 363 | 337 | 286 | 275 | 224 |
| Lubricants & Specialties | 165 | 240 | 258 | 293 | 242 |
| Marketing | 73 | 48 | 37 | 45 | |
| Corporate, Other and Eliminations | -104 | -106 | -115 | -136 | -103 |
| Renewables | -133 | -91 | -133 | -180 | -66 |
| Total | 927 | 261 | 2,203 | 4,054 | 749 |
| $ Mil | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Refining | 9,737 | 6,204 | 7,189 | 6,465 | 6,475 |
| Midstream | 2,250 | 2,198 | 2,205 | 2,142 | 2,192 |
| Lubricants & Specialties | 2,074 | 1,864 | 2,223 | 1,506 | 1,610 |
| Corporate, Other and Eliminations | -1,144 | 1,240 | 547 | 881 | 415 |
| Total | 12,917 | 11,507 | 12,165 | 10,995 | 10,692 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $91.47 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 16.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/29/2006 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -1.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $75.88 | $60.01 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 20.5% | 52.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 37.9% | 37.1% |
| Downside Capture | -109.82 | -79.90 |
| Upside Capture | 36.06 | 25.63 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -9.8% | 0.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.14 | -0.08 | -0.31 | -0.49 | -0.01 | 0.68 |
| Up Beta | 1.02 | -1.12 | -1.37 | -1.31 | -0.22 | 0.79 |
| Down Beta | 1.20 | 1.01 | 0.55 | 0.66 | 0.82 | 1.13 |
| Up Capture | 123% | 73% | 46% | 12% | 18% | 18% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 14 | 25 | 36 | 73 | 133 | 391 |
| Down Capture | -343% | -116% | -133% | -210% | -150% | 50% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 18 | 27 | 53 | 117 | 360 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with DINO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DINO | 119.2% | 37.0% | 2.18 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 39.2% | 21.0% | 1.47 | 55.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 18.8% | 12.9% | 1.07 | -0.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 23.6% | 28.1% | 0.74 | -3.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 30.2% | 19.7% | 1.22 | 39.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.7% | 13.9% | 0.69 | 2.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -44.8% | 42.9% | -1.26 | 14.0% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with DINO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DINO | 30.9% | 38.6% | 0.79 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 24.0% | 25.8% | 0.82 | 66.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.6% | 17.1% | 0.56 | 31.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.1% | 18.5% | 0.75 | 4.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.0% | 19.5% | 0.35 | 41.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.5% | 18.9% | 0.03 | 22.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 14.2% | 53.3% | 0.45 | 14.6% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with DINO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DINO | 18.1% | 44.2% | 0.53 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 10.1% | 29.6% | 0.38 | 67.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.0% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 41.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.3% | 16.1% | 0.57 | -1.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.3% | 18.0% | 0.32 | 38.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 33.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.2% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 10.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 7/31/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/28/2026 | -1.6% | ||
| 5/1/2026 | 2.9% | 4.9% | 6.1% |
| 2/18/2026 | -10.9% | -14.2% | 4.6% |
| 10/30/2025 | -2.2% | -1.8% | -0.9% |
| 7/31/2025 | 1.2% | -0.2% | 17.6% |
| 5/1/2025 | 4.0% | 8.7% | 21.8% |
| 2/20/2025 | -1.1% | -8.9% | -9.0% |
| 10/31/2024 | -5.4% | 3.6% | 1.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 7 | 10 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 2.8% | 8.7% | 6.8% |
| Median Negative | -2.5% | -2.9% | -6.8% |
| Max Positive | 4.0% | 13.7% | 36.0% |
| Max Negative | -10.9% | -14.2% | -18.2% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/28/2026 | -1.6% | ||
| 5/1/2026 | 2.9% | 4.9% | 6.1% |
| 2/18/2026 | -10.9% | -14.2% | 4.6% |
| 10/30/2025 | -2.2% | -1.8% | -0.9% |
| 7/31/2025 | 1.2% | -0.2% | 17.6% |
| 5/1/2025 | 4.0% | 8.7% | 21.8% |
| 2/20/2025 | -1.1% | -8.9% | -9.0% |
| 10/31/2024 | -5.4% | 3.6% | 1.5% |
| 8/1/2024 | -2.7% | -11.4% | -6.8% |
| 5/8/2024 | 3.8% | 3.7% | -0.7% |
| 2/21/2024 | -1.4% | -0.3% | 4.5% |
| 11/2/2023 | 3.6% | -4.5% | -1.8% |
| 8/3/2023 | 2.8% | 13.7% | 7.6% |
| 5/4/2023 | -8.7% | -3.4% | 4.4% |
| 2/24/2023 | -5.6% | -2.4% | -10.0% |
| 11/7/2022 | 0.6% | -1.6% | -18.2% |
| 8/8/2022 | 1.8% | 11.5% | 15.4% |
| 5/9/2022 | -0.9% | 9.8% | 36.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 7 | 10 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 2.8% | 8.7% | 6.8% |
| Median Negative | -2.5% | -2.9% | -6.8% |
| Max Positive | 4.0% | 13.7% | 36.0% |
| Max Negative | -10.9% | -14.2% | -18.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/01/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/27/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/01/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/27/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/23/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/06/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/24/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/07/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/20/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/31/2019 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Updated 7/20/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hardy, Rhoman J | Direct | Buy | 6162026 | 66.32 | 1,508 | 100,011 | 997,254 | Form | |
| 2 | Fernandez, Manuel J | Direct | Sell | 6032026 | 73.09 | 635 | 46,412 | 1,209,128 | Form | |
| 3 | Joyce, Matthew | SVP, Lubricants & Specialties | Direct | Sell | 5262026 | 69.73 | 2,384 | 166,236 | 1,031,795 | Form |
| 4 | Garg, Vivek | Acting CFO, VP, CAO & CONTR | Direct | Sell | 5212026 | 71.89 | 717 | 51,545 | 824,938 | Form |
| 5 | Myers, Franklin | CEO and President | Direct | Buy | 5182026 | 69.11 | 15,000 | 1,036,650 | 12,236,133 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hardy, Rhoman J | Direct | Buy | 6162026 | 66.32 | 1,508 | 100,011 | 997,254 | Form | |
| 2 | Fernandez, Manuel J | Direct | Sell | 6032026 | 73.09 | 635 | 46,412 | 1,209,128 | Form | |
| 3 | Joyce, Matthew | SVP, Lubricants & Specialties | Direct | Sell | 5262026 | 69.73 | 2,384 | 166,236 | 1,031,795 | Form |
| 4 | Garg, Vivek | Acting CFO, VP, CAO & CONTR | Direct | Sell | 5212026 | 71.89 | 717 | 51,545 | 824,938 | Form |
| 5 | Myers, Franklin | CEO and President | Direct | Buy | 5182026 | 69.11 | 15,000 | 1,036,650 | 12,236,133 | Form |
| 6 | Pompa, Valerie | EVP, Operations | Direct | Sell | 5182026 | 69.05 | 10,000 | 690,500 | 2,975,917 | Form |
| 7 | Garg, Vivek | VP, CAO and Controller | Direct | Sell | 11062025 | 53.28 | 314 | 16,730 | 192,288 | Form |
| 8 | Pompa, Valerie | EVP, Operations | Direct | Sell | 8042025 | 42.53 | 11,000 | 467,830 | 1,683,805 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Aug 1, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCTC Holdings, LLC | $769.3 Mil | 21.9% | 325 | Hold | 13F |
| Thomist Capital Management, LP | $35.3 Mil | 12.1% | 43 | ADD +83.7% | 13F |
| Robertson Opportunity Capital, LLC | $13.1 Mil | 5.0% | 30 | Hold | 13F |
| Semper Augustus Investments Group LLC | $22.5 Mil | 2.7% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Summit Street Capital Management, LLC | $18.4 Mil | 2.6% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Active Manager |
|---|
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCTC Holdings, LLC | $769.3 Mil | 21.9% | 325 | Hold | 13F |
| Thomist Capital Management, LP | $35.3 Mil | 12.1% | 43 | ADD +83.7% | 13F |
| Semper Augustus Investments Group LLC | $22.5 Mil | 2.7% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Summit Street Capital Management, LLC | $18.4 Mil | 2.6% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Robertson Opportunity Capital, LLC | $13.1 Mil | 5.0% | 30 | Hold | 13F |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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