Tearsheet

HF Sinclair (DINO)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $51.72 | Market Cap: $9.6 Bil
Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

HF Sinclair (DINO)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $51.72
Market Cap: $9.6 Bil
Sector: Energy
Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.9%, Dividend Yield is 3.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.7%, FCF Yield is 6.9%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -43%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -80%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -8.2%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 38%
  Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 63%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and US Energy Independence. Themes include Renewable Fuel Production, and Domestic Oil & Gas Refining.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.9%, Dividend Yield is 3.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.7%, FCF Yield is 6.9%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 38%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and US Energy Independence. Themes include Renewable Fuel Production, and Domestic Oil & Gas Refining.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -43%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -80%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -8.2%
5 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 63%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

DINO Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The approximate 2.6% movement in HF Sinclair (DINO) stock from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, can be attributed to several key factors:

1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Exceeding Expectations. HF Sinclair reported its third-quarter 2025 earnings on October 30, 2025, significantly surpassing analysts' expectations with an earnings per share (EPS) of $2.44, well above the forecasted $1.82. The company also exceeded revenue forecasts, reporting $7.25 billion against an anticipated $6.9 billion. This strong performance led to a premarket stock increase of 1.59%.

2. Evaluation of Strategic Pipeline Expansion into Western Markets. On October 29, 2025, HF Sinclair announced it was evaluating a multi-phased expansion of its Midstream refined products footprint in key Western markets, including Nevada and California. This initiative aims to address increasing supply and demand imbalances resulting from announced refinery closures on the West Coast, potentially enabling an incremental supply of up to 150,000 barrels per day.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
DINO Return-46%28%62%11%-34%56%26%
Peers Return-39%26%71%16%-16%59%106%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
DINO Win Rate25%58%67%50%33%60% 
Peers Win Rate37%53%73%52%38%70% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
DINO Max Drawdown-65%-2%-10%-26%-37%-25% 
Peers Max Drawdown-67%-5%-2%-18%-21%-22% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DK, MPC, PSX, VLO, DINO.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventDINOS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-41.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven71.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-66.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven198.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven582 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-53.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven115.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-86.2%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven625.4%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1363 days1480 days

Compare to DK, MPC, PSX, VLO, DINO


In The Past

HF Sinclair's stock fell -41.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/22/2022. A -41.7% loss requires a 71.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About HF Sinclair (DINO)

Better Bets than HF Sinclair (DINO)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to DINO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
8.3%8.3%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.3%13.3%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
22.5%22.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.4%-0.4%-5.7%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
8.3%8.3%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.3%13.3%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
22.5%22.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.4%-0.4%-5.7%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for HF Sinclair

Peers to compare with:

Financials

DINODKMPCPSXVLOMedian
NameHF Sincl.Delek US Marathon.Phillips.Valero E. 
Mkt Price51.7238.13189.43139.85177.05139.85
Mkt Cap9.62.357.456.654.754.7
Rev LTM26,90510,667133,262131,953123,071123,071
Op Inc LTM711-594,7341,7183,0851,718
FCF LTM676-7414,2761,3513,9601,351
FCF 3Y Avg1,450-2158,2984,0696,9894,069
CFO LTM1,167-1307,3913,4084,8393,408
CFO 3Y Avg1,87623010,7836,0607,9266,060

Growth & Margins

DINODKMPCPSXVLOMedian
NameHF Sincl.Delek US Marathon.Phillips.Valero E. 
Rev Chg LTM-9.5%-20.5%-6.1%-10.7%-8.5%-9.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-8.2%-17.2%-8.3%-6.6%-10.3%-8.3%
Rev Chg Q0.6%-5.1%-0.8%-2.9%-2.2%-2.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.2%-1.4%-0.2%-0.8%-0.6%-0.6%
Op Mgn LTM2.6%-0.6%3.6%1.3%2.5%2.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg4.5%-0.2%6.0%3.1%5.3%4.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM2.5%3.9%0.4%0.7%0.8%0.8%
CFO/Rev LTM4.3%-1.2%5.5%2.6%3.9%3.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg6.1%1.3%7.4%4.2%5.7%5.7%
FCF/Rev LTM2.5%-6.9%3.2%1.0%3.2%2.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg4.6%-2.2%5.7%2.8%5.0%4.6%

Valuation

DINODKMPCPSXVLOMedian
NameHF Sincl.Delek US Marathon.Phillips.Valero E. 
Mkt Cap9.62.357.456.654.754.7
P/S0.40.20.40.40.40.4
P/EBIT13.3-10.68.518.622.313.3
P/E24.8-3.820.336.635.224.8
P/CFO8.4-14.97.916.110.98.4
Total Yield7.9%-23.3%6.9%6.2%5.5%6.2%
Dividend Yield3.9%3.2%1.9%3.5%2.7%3.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg14.7%-12.2%14.3%7.5%14.6%14.3%
D/E0.31.70.60.40.20.4
Net D/E0.21.40.50.40.10.4

Returns

DINODKMPCPSXVLOMedian
NameHF Sincl.Delek US Marathon.Phillips.Valero E. 
1M Rtn-2.3%-2.0%-2.8%2.3%3.8%-2.0%
3M Rtn1.2%20.2%6.4%8.1%14.7%8.1%
6M Rtn48.1%108.6%22.0%26.6%41.9%41.9%
12M Rtn34.2%110.2%24.5%7.9%32.8%32.8%
3Y Rtn3.9%50.7%71.0%46.2%52.8%50.7%
1M Excs Rtn-2.2%-1.9%-2.7%2.3%3.9%-1.9%
3M Excs Rtn-4.1%14.8%1.0%1.8%9.3%1.8%
6M Excs Rtn33.4%93.9%7.3%11.9%27.2%27.2%
12M Excs Rtn19.2%97.1%10.5%-5.3%17.8%17.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-80.2%-38.3%-6.9%-28.2%-28.8%-28.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Refining28,67334,41316,359 15,284
Marketing4,1463,912   
Lubricants & Specialties2,7753,1592,561 2,081
Renewables1,1891,0150  
Midstream584547494 121
Corporate, Other and Eliminations-5,403-4,842-1,025 0
Total31,96438,20518,389 17,487


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Refining1,8703,775451 1,210
Midstream286223224 264
Lubricants & Specialties258296242 -129
Marketing3746   
Corporate, Other and Eliminations-115-106-103 -68
Renewables-133-179-66  
Total2,2034,054749 1,277


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity8,829,120
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120250.3%
Average Daily Volume2,131,250
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.14
Basic Shares Quantity186,499,000
Short % of Basic Shares4.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024220202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023221202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023505202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022228202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221107202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022808202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022509202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021223202210-K 12/31/2021