Cisco Systems (CSCO)


Market Price (7/23/2026): $112.61 | Market Cap: $445.0 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Communications Equipment

Cisco Systems (CSCO)


Market Price (7/23/2026): $112.61
Market Cap: $445.0 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Communications Equipment

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, CFO LTM is 13 Bil, FCF LTM is 12 Bil

Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 21 Bil

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cybersecurity, Cloud Computing, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Show more.

Key risks
CSCO key risks include [1] market share erosion from intense competition in its core networking and cybersecurity businesses, Show more.

0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, CFO LTM is 13 Bil, FCF LTM is 12 Bil
1 Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 21 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cybersecurity, Cloud Computing, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Show more.
4 Key risks
CSCO key risks include [1] market share erosion from intense competition in its core networking and cybersecurity businesses, Show more.

CSCO in ETFs

Weight = CSCO's share of each fund

SPY0.68%
VOO0.72%
IVV0.67%
VTI0.57%
ITOT0.59%
QQQ2.0%
QQQM1.9%
DIA1.2%
+43 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 7/15/2026

Cisco Systems (CSCO) stock has gained about 45% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Exceptional Fiscal Q3 2026 Performance and Robust Guidance. Cisco Systems (whose fiscal Q3 2026 ended on April 25, 2026) reported record revenue of $15.8 billion, a 12% year-over-year increase, exceeding analyst consensus estimates of $15.56 billion. Non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $1.06 also surpassed estimates of $1.03. Furthermore, the company provided an optimistic outlook for fiscal Q4 2026, projecting revenue between $16.7 billion and $16.9 billion, with the midpoint nearly $1 billion higher than consensus, and raised its full fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance to between $62.8 billion and $63.0 billion.

2. Surging Demand for AI Infrastructure Solutions. A major catalyst was the significant increase in orders for Cisco's AI infrastructure solutions, particularly from hyperscale cloud providers. The company raised its fiscal year 2026 AI infrastructure order target by 80%, from an initial $5 billion to approximately $9 billion. This was supported by securing five new hyperscaler AI design wins in fiscal Q3 2026, with enterprise data center switching orders growing over 40% and the Acacia optics business (critical for AI optical interconnects) generating over $1 billion in orders and expected to grow over 200% in fiscal 2026.

Show more
Updated on 7/15/2026

Cisco Systems (CSCO) stock has gained about 45% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Exceptional Fiscal Q3 2026 Performance and Robust Guidance. Cisco Systems (whose fiscal Q3 2026 ended on April 25, 2026) reported record revenue of $15.8 billion, a 12% year-over-year increase, exceeding analyst consensus estimates of $15.56 billion. Non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $1.06 also surpassed estimates of $1.03. Furthermore, the company provided an optimistic outlook for fiscal Q4 2026, projecting revenue between $16.7 billion and $16.9 billion, with the midpoint nearly $1 billion higher than consensus, and raised its full fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance to between $62.8 billion and $63.0 billion.

2. Surging Demand for AI Infrastructure Solutions. A major catalyst was the significant increase in orders for Cisco's AI infrastructure solutions, particularly from hyperscale cloud providers. The company raised its fiscal year 2026 AI infrastructure order target by 80%, from an initial $5 billion to approximately $9 billion. This was supported by securing five new hyperscaler AI design wins in fiscal Q3 2026, with enterprise data center switching orders growing over 40% and the Acacia optics business (critical for AI optical interconnects) generating over $1 billion in orders and expected to grow over 200% in fiscal 2026.

3. Strategic Shift and Acquisitions Focused on AI and Security. Cisco demonstrated a clear strategic pivot towards the burgeoning AI and security markets through a significant restructuring initiative, including a plan to lay off nearly 4,000 employees to reallocate resources towards AI, security, silicon, and optics. Concurrently, the company made several key acquisitions to enhance its AI and security capabilities, such as Astrix Security (May 2026) for identity protection and AI agent security, WideField Security (June 2026) to bolster Splunk's security operations center, and Galileo Technologies (April 2026) for AI observability.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 45.9% change in CSCO stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 35.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)33120267222026Change
Stock Price ($)76.88112.2145.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)59,05460,7462.9%
Net Income Margin (%)18.8%19.7%5.0%
P/E Multiple27.537.135.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)3,9553,9520.1%
Cumulative Contribution45.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2026 to 7/22/2026
ReturnCorrelation
CSCO45.9% 
Market (SPY)14.9%38.8%
Sector (XLK)35.6%46.5%

Fundamental Drivers

The 47.8% change in CSCO stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 27.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)123120257222026Change
Stock Price ($)75.92112.2147.8%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)57,69660,7465.3%
Net Income Margin (%)17.9%19.7%10.0%
P/E Multiple29.137.127.5%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)3,9563,9520.1%
Cumulative Contribution47.8%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

12/31/2025 to 7/22/2026
ReturnCorrelation
CSCO47.8% 
Market (SPY)9.9%41.4%
Sector (XLK)25.4%47.0%

Fundamental Drivers

The 66.1% change in CSCO stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 35.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)63020257222026Change
Stock Price ($)67.57112.2166.1%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)55,62360,7469.2%
Net Income Margin (%)17.6%19.7%11.8%
P/E Multiple27.437.135.3%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)3,9723,9520.5%
Cumulative Contribution66.1%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/30/2025 to 7/22/2026
ReturnCorrelation
CSCO66.1% 
Market (SPY)22.0%40.8%
Sector (XLK)43.0%46.7%

Fundamental Drivers

The 136.5% change in CSCO stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 119.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)63020237222026Change
Stock Price ($)47.44112.21136.5%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)54,89760,74610.7%
Net Income Margin (%)20.9%19.7%-5.8%
P/E Multiple16.937.1119.3%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)4,0893,9523.5%
Cumulative Contribution136.5%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/30/2023 to 7/22/2026
ReturnCorrelation
CSCO136.5% 
Market (SPY)74.6%50.8%
Sector (XLK)111.3%50.1%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
CSCO Return46%-22%9%21%33%48%195%
Peers Return77%-19%66%51%6%108%694%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%10%100%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CSCO Win Rate75%33%58%67%67%57% 
Peers Win Rate73%42%65%65%60%71% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%57% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CSCO Max Drawdown-10%-36%-17%-13%-17%-15% 
Peers Max Drawdown-17%-36%-23%-30%-41%-22% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: HPE, ANET, DELL, PANW, FTNT. See CSCO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/22/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventCSCOS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-17.4%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven21.1%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven58 days79 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-10.4%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven11.6%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven289 days24 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-35.9%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven55.9%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven756 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-28.3%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven39.4%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven76 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-17.5%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven21.2%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven53 days105 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-20.7%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven26.0%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven49 days62 days

Compare to HPE, ANET, DELL, PANW, FTNT

In The Past

Cisco Systems's stock fell -17.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 21.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventCSCOS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-35.9%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven55.9%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven756 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-28.3%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven39.4%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven76 days140 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-20.7%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven26.0%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven49 days62 days
2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash
  % Loss-23.4%-15.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven30.5%18.2%
  Time to Breakeven1127 days125 days
2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis
  % Loss-52.0%-53.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven108.4%114.4%
  Time to Breakeven2076 days1085 days

Compare to HPE, ANET, DELL, PANW, FTNT

In The Past

Cisco Systems's stock fell -17.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 21.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Cisco Systems (CSCO)

Cisco Systems, Inc. is a global technology company that designs, manufactures, and sells Internet Protocol (IP) based networking and other related products essential for modern communications and information technology. At its core, Cisco provides the foundational infrastructure that enables the internet and various networks to function, allowing data to be transported, stored, and secured across different environments worldwide.

The company's product portfolio is diverse, spanning several critical areas. Its "Infrastructure Platforms" include core networking technologies like switches, routers, wireless solutions, and data center products, all designed to deliver comprehensive networking capabilities. Beyond networking hardware, Cisco offers "Collaboration Products" such as unified communications, video conferencing (TelePresence), and Internet of Things (IoT) software. Furthermore, it provides extensive "Security Products" covering network, cloud, email, and advanced threat protection, along with identity and access management. Cisco also supports its customers with a range of technical support and advanced services.

Cisco serves a broad and diverse customer base globally, including businesses of all sizes, public institutions, governments, and telecommunications service providers. It reaches these customers through a combination of direct sales and an extensive network of channel partners, including systems integrators, resellers, and distributors. Headquartered in San Jose, California, Cisco's operations and sales span the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia Pacific, Japan, and China.

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  • The IBM for business networking and digital infrastructure.
  • The General Electric for the foundational technology of the internet and enterprise networks.

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  • Networking Hardware: Cisco provides a full range of networking hardware, including switches, routers, wireless access points, and data center infrastructure, essential for building and maintaining digital networks.
  • Collaboration Solutions: These products facilitate communication and teamwork, encompassing unified communications, TelePresence for high-definition video conferencing, and general conferencing platforms.
  • Security Solutions: Cisco offers comprehensive security products to protect networks, cloud environments, email, and user identities from a wide array of cyber threats.
  • Internet of Things (IoT) & Analytics Software: This category includes software for connecting and managing IoT devices, alongside advanced tools for data analysis and insights.
  • Technical Support & Advanced Services: Cisco provides various service and support options, from essential technical assistance to specialized advanced services, ensuring customer success and operational efficiency.

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Major Suppliers:

  • Foxconn (Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., Ltd.) (TPE: 2317)
  • Jabil Inc. (NYSE: JBL)
  • Flex Ltd. (NASDAQ: FLEX)
  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (NYSE: TSM)

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Chuck Robbins, Chair and Chief Executive Officer

Chuck Robbins joined Cisco in 1997 and has served as CEO since July 2015, also becoming Chairman of the Board in December 2017. He has been instrumental in leading Cisco's strategic shift towards software, services, and innovative technologies. Prior to his CEO role, Robbins held various leadership positions within the company, including Senior Vice President of Worldwide Field Operations, where he oversaw global sales and partner organizations, and Senior Vice President of the Americas. Before joining Cisco, he worked as an application developer for North Carolina National Bank and held positions at Wellfleet Communications and Ascend Communications.

Mark Patterson, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Mark Patterson became Cisco's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer effective July 27, 2025, succeeding Scott Herren. He joined Cisco in September 2000 and has held various leadership roles within the company, including Executive Vice President and Chief Strategy Officer since March 2024. Patterson also served as Senior Vice President, Chief of Staff to the Chair & CEO, and Senior Vice President, Strategy, Planning, and Operations for Worldwide Sales and Marketing. Before his tenure at Cisco, he led finance and operations for IPMobile, a company that was later acquired by Cisco in 2000.

Jeetu Patel, President and Chief Product Officer

Jeetu Patel leads Cisco's global product vision and strategy. He joined Cisco in 2020 and initially led the collaboration and security business. Patel is recognized for his dedication to product design, user experience, and for driving innovation across Cisco's extensive product portfolio, establishing the company's role as critical infrastructure for the AI era.

Dev Stahlkopf, Executive Vice President and Chief Legal Officer

Dev Stahlkopf serves as Cisco's Executive Vice President and Chief Legal Officer.

Thimaya Subaiya, Executive Vice President, Operations

Thimaya Subaiya is Cisco's Executive Vice President of Operations, overseeing key functions such as Security & Trust, Supply Chain, IT, internal Cisco AI governance, and core operations. He is known for his strong background in implementing growth strategies within the services and software businesses, balancing innovation, simplicity, and optimization.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The key risks to Cisco Systems (CSCO) include intensifying competition in the AI networking sector, ongoing margin pressures from rising costs and product mix, and challenges in effectively integrating strategic acquisitions.

  1. Intensifying Competition in AI Networking: Cisco faces significant competitive pressures, particularly in the rapidly evolving AI networking sector. Rivals such as Arista Networks and Nvidia are actively gaining market share in data center AI networking, leading to a decline in Cisco's core network revenue. This fierce competition poses a substantial threat to Cisco's market position and long-term revenue growth.
  2. Margin Pressures from Rising Costs and Product Mix: The company is experiencing declining gross margins, primarily due to increases in memory chip prices and a product mix that is more hardware-heavy. These rising costs directly impact Cisco's profitability and have led to weaker-than-expected profitability forecasts, causing investor concern and stock volatility.
  3. Challenges in Integrating Acquisitions: Cisco's aggressive acquisition strategy, including the recent $28 billion acquisition of Splunk, presents integration challenges. These challenges can include potential cultural clashes, talent drain, and a slower-than-anticipated return on investment. Furthermore, a rapid succession of acquisitions may stretch the company into areas where it lacks a solid competitive advantage, leading to operational complexities.

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The clear emerging threats for Cisco Systems include:

  • The accelerating industry shift towards **Secure Access Service Edge (SASE)** architectures, which converge network and security functions into a single, cloud-delivered platform. This fundamentally challenges Cisco's traditional model of selling distinct on-premises networking and security hardware and software appliances, as pure-play SASE providers and other integrated security vendors gain market share.
  • The increasing maturity and comprehensive nature of **hyperscale public cloud providers (e.g., Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud)**. As more enterprises migrate their core infrastructure and applications to these cloud environments, the native networking, security, and collaboration services offered by the cloud providers reduce the need for traditional enterprise-purchased hardware and software from vendors like Cisco.

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Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) operates within several large and expanding addressable markets for its diverse range of products and services.

Overall Addressable Market

  • Cisco aims for a total addressable market (TAM) of approximately $900 billion by 2025, encompassing its existing, expansion, and adjacent markets globally. As of September 2021, the company addressed a market worth nearly $260 billion, with a goal to increase this to around $400 billion by 2025 in existing and expansion markets.

Infrastructure Platforms

  • Managed Network Services: The global managed network services market was valued at USD 75.69 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 150.28 billion by 2032. North America is a dominant region, expected to hold the largest market share (approximately 35.22%) in this sector. Another estimate places the global market at USD 235.94 billion in 2024, growing to USD 541.32 billion by 2035. Cisco itself forecasts its total addressable market for managed services to be $113 billion by 2025.
  • Routers and Switches: Cisco's market for routers and switches is estimated to reach USD 32.1 billion globally in 2026 and is projected to surpass USD 49.7 billion by 2032.

Collaboration Products

  • Unified Communications (UC): The global unified communications market size was estimated at USD 136.11 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 417.86 billion by 2030. North America accounted for 26.0% of the global unified communications market in 2023.
  • Video Conferencing: The global video conferencing market size was estimated at USD 11.65 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 24.46 billion by 2033. North America held the largest revenue share of over 38% in this market in 2024.
  • Internet of Things (IoT) Solutions: The global Internet of Things (IoT) market size was valued at USD 1.18 trillion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 2.65 trillion by 2030. North America held the largest market revenue share, accounting for 36.1% in 2023. More specifically, the global IoT Software market was valued at USD 1.2 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach nearly USD 3.28 billion by 2032.

Security Products

  • Network Security: The global network security market size was valued at USD 27.11 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 79.29 billion by 2033. North America held 35.9% of the global network security market's revenue share in 2024.
  • Cloud Security: The global cloud security market size was estimated at USD 40.81 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 133.39 billion by 2035. North America dominated the market with the largest revenue share of 35% in 2025.
  • Identity and Access Management (IAM): The global identity and access management market size was valued at USD 18.86 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 61.93 billion by 2033. North America is identified as the dominant region in this market.
  • Advanced Threat Protection (ATP): The global advanced threat protection market size was estimated at USD 6.79 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 24.51 billion by 2030. North America was the largest revenue-generating market in 2023.

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Cisco Systems (CSCO) is anticipated to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key areas:

  1. AI Infrastructure Demand: Cisco is experiencing significant demand for network equipment as companies globally expand their data centers and accelerate Artificial Intelligence (AI) projects. The company has secured substantial AI-related orders, with expectations to recognize approximately $3 billion in revenue from AI infrastructure in fiscal year 2026, primarily from hyperscalers. This growth is further fueled by the need for high-speed network technology among government clouds, commercial cloud providers, and large enterprises as AI workloads generate substantially more network traffic.
  2. Growth in Security Business and Splunk Integration: The acquisition of Splunk is a pivotal driver for Cisco's security revenues. The integration of Splunk is expected to significantly strengthen Cisco's Threat Intelligence, Detection, and Response (TIDR) offerings. While there have been short-term impacts from the shift to cloud subscriptions for Splunk, which affects revenue recognition, the long-term outlook for the combined security portfolio, including new AI-powered solutions like Hypershield, is positive.
  3. Campus Networking Refresh Cycle: Cisco is poised to benefit from a multi-year, multi-billion-dollar campus network refresh opportunity. Enterprise customers are increasingly investing in modernizing their campus networks, upgrading switching, routing, and wireless products to support AI deployments and replace older infrastructure. This cycle is expected to drive demand for Cisco's Catalyst 9000 series switches and other refreshed networking products.
  4. Increasing Adoption of Software and Subscription-based Offerings: Cisco continues its strategic shift towards a higher mix of software and subscription revenues, which provides a more predictable and recurring revenue stream. This focus on Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) and software growth enhances the stability and long-term visibility of Cisco's financial performance, supporting growth across its product categories.

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Share Repurchases

  • In February 2025, Cisco's board approved a $15 billion increase to its stock repurchase program, bringing the total authorized amount for future repurchases to approximately $17 billion.
  • Cisco returned $12.4 billion to stockholders in fiscal year 2025 through dividends and share repurchases, with $6 billion specifically allocated for share repurchases.
  • In the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, the company repurchased approximately 19 million shares for an aggregate purchase price of $1.3 billion.

Share Issuance

  • In December 2025, Cisco's shareholders approved an amendment to the 2005 Stock Incentive Plan, increasing the number of shares authorized for issuance by 57,490,000.
  • As of July 26, 2025, prior to the approved increase, 100,026,176 shares were available for future grants under the stock incentive plan.

Outbound Investments

  • In September 2023, Cisco announced its most significant acquisition, Splunk, for approximately $28 billion.
  • The company completed the acquisition of Acacia Communications for $4.5 billion in March 2021, focusing on optical component technology for high-speed data transmission.
  • Cisco has made strategic acquisitions in AI and security, including EzDubs and NeuralFabric in November 2025, and SnapAttack in February 2025. It also launched a $1 billion Global AI fund in 2024.

Capital Expenditures

  • Cisco's capital expenditures were $905 million in fiscal year 2025, $670 million in fiscal year 2024, and $849 million in fiscal year 2023.
  • The company expects to surpass $1 billion in AI infrastructure orders in fiscal year 2025, indicating a significant focus on AI-driven network infrastructure and data capacity investments.
  • Cisco's CEO indicated plans to boost capital expenditures in the upcoming six months (as of March 2026), with a continued focus on AI infrastructure.

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Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CSCOHPEANETDELLPANWFTNTMedian
NameCisco Sy.Hewlett .Arista N.Dell Tec.Palo Alt.Fortinet  
Mkt Price112.2148.13174.87441.80335.28155.05164.96
Mkt Cap443.564.3219.9286.7268.6114.6244.2
Rev LTM60,74638,7949,710134,00210,6067,11024,700
Op Inc LTM14,4082,2484,15510,8481,0202,2113,202
FCF LTM11,7883,9895,2789,4423,7942,4364,634
FCF 3Y Avg12,3342,3533,7336,1283,2692,0653,501
CFO LTM13,0256,3585,42412,4704,2172,8045,891
CFO 3Y Avg13,2774,7393,8118,8953,5282,3954,275

Growth & Margins

CSCOHPEANETDELLPANWFTNTMedian
NameCisco Sy.Hewlett .Arista N.Dell Tec.Palo Alt.Fortinet  
Rev Chg LTM9.2%22.6%30.6%38.6%19.5%15.7%21.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg3.5%10.0%26.0%12.9%17.8%14.6%13.8%
Rev Chg Q12.0%40.0%35.1%87.5%31.1%20.1%33.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.9%8.5%7.8%18.0%7.2%4.6%7.5%
Op Inc Chg LTM19.0%1.7%32.2%63.1%3.6%14.2%16.6%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg0.8%-4.8%33.9%29.1%137.6%27.5%28.3%
Op Mgn LTM23.7%5.8%42.8%8.1%9.6%31.1%16.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg24.0%6.9%41.7%7.2%9.9%28.8%17.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.5%1.0%-0.0%0.8%-4.8%0.4%0.5%
CFO/Rev LTM21.4%16.4%55.9%9.3%39.8%39.4%30.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg23.2%14.4%47.7%8.2%38.8%38.5%30.9%
FCF/Rev LTM19.4%10.3%54.4%7.0%35.8%34.3%26.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg21.6%7.0%46.8%5.6%36.1%33.1%27.4%

Valuation

CSCOHPEANETDELLPANWFTNTMedian
NameCisco Sy.Hewlett .Arista N.Dell Tec.Palo Alt.Fortinet  
Mkt Cap443.564.3219.9286.7268.6114.6244.2
P/S7.31.722.72.125.316.111.7
P/Op Inc30.828.652.926.4263.351.841.3
P/EBIT28.528.652.924.4192.447.037.8
P/E37.141.359.134.1318.658.650.0
P/CFO34.010.140.623.063.740.837.3
Total Yield4.2%3.5%1.7%3.5%0.3%1.7%2.6%
Dividend Yield1.5%1.1%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%0.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg4.5%5.9%2.5%4.4%2.1%2.8%3.6%
D/E0.10.30.00.10.00.00.0
Net D/E0.00.2-0.10.1-0.0-0.00.0

Returns

CSCOHPEANETDELLPANWFTNTMedian
NameCisco Sy.Hewlett .Arista N.Dell Tec.Palo Alt.Fortinet  
1M Rtn-7.3%-0.6%0.2%5.7%17.1%6.6%2.9%
3M Rtn25.4%69.3%-1.6%106.2%85.0%78.0%73.7%
6M Rtn53.7%131.1%37.4%291.9%84.8%104.7%94.7%
12M Rtn68.0%140.7%59.3%259.9%70.4%47.9%69.2%
3Y Rtn130.8%201.3%307.5%771.5%175.0%98.4%188.2%
1M Excs Rtn-7.7%-0.9%-0.2%5.3%16.7%6.3%2.6%
3M Excs Rtn19.4%61.7%-5.0%102.2%85.5%75.7%68.7%
6M Excs Rtn44.1%127.9%26.8%289.3%71.8%95.1%83.5%
12M Excs Rtn48.7%118.9%37.8%229.4%48.8%26.1%48.7%
3Y Excs Rtn73.2%139.2%244.6%687.6%102.4%27.3%120.8%

Comparison Analyses

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Networking28,30429,22934,570  
Services15,04614,55013,85613,53913,804
Security8,0945,0753,859  
Collaboration4,1544,1134,0524,4724,727
Observability1,055837661  
End-to-End Security   3,6993,382
Internet for the Future   5,2764,514
Optimized Application Experiences   729654
Other Products   1115
Secure, Agile Networks   23,83122,722
Total56,65353,80456,99851,55749,818


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$112.21 
Market Cap ($ Bil)443.5 
First Trading Date03/26/1990 
Distance from 52W High-13.4% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$116.72$87.25
DMA Trendupup
Distance from DMA-3.9%28.6%
 3M1YR
Volatility45.6%32.7%
Downside Capture134.3696.60
Upside Capture208.21137.21
Correlation (SPY)40.2%40.7%
CSCO Betas & Captures as of 6/30/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta1.531.441.061.181.040.84
Up Beta-0.17-0.59-0.020.160.430.73
Down Beta1.611.781.901.731.300.98
Up Capture206%287%204%206%166%83%
Bmk +ve Days11244067140429
Stock +ve Days8233971138412
Down Capture188%126%92%99%96%91%
Bmk -ve Days10172358112321
Stock -ve Days13182453112332

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with CSCO
CSCO67.9%32.6%1.62-
Sector ETF (XLK)38.8%24.7%1.2746.8%
Equity (SPY)20.0%12.6%1.1640.5%
Gold (GLD)21.2%28.1%0.6710.8%
Commodities (DBC)33.0%19.1%1.366.7%
Real Estate (VNQ)13.9%14.0%0.70-5.4%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-43.6%42.9%-1.2117.6%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with CSCO
CSCO19.0%25.3%0.67-
Sector ETF (XLK)19.6%25.6%0.6855.4%
Equity (SPY)12.8%17.1%0.5857.2%
Gold (GLD)17.3%18.4%0.767.4%
Commodities (DBC)9.3%19.5%0.3713.6%
Real Estate (VNQ)2.7%18.9%0.0436.2%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)15.2%53.5%0.4619.3%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with CSCO
CSCO17.7%26.0%0.65-
Sector ETF (XLK)24.5%24.8%0.8964.4%
Equity (SPY)15.1%17.9%0.7266.8%
Gold (GLD)11.5%16.1%0.584.5%
Commodities (DBC)7.1%17.9%0.3120.8%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.0%20.7%0.2044.6%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)58.5%66.2%0.9915.0%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date6302026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity53.8 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 6152026-12.9%
Average Daily Volume28.3 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.9 days
Basic Shares Quantity3,952.0 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares1.4%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 6/16/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
5/13/202613.4%12.3%18.9%
2/11/2026-12.3%-8.2%-8.4%
11/12/20254.6%6.0%5.8%
8/13/2025-1.6%-4.7%-5.5%
5/14/20254.8%3.1%4.6%
2/12/20252.1%3.4%-3.2%
11/13/2024-2.1%-2.8%-0.9%
8/14/20246.8%11.0%9.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive141413
# Negative101011
Median Positive4.7%4.6%5.8%
Median Negative-4.1%-4.7%-6.4%
Max Positive13.4%12.3%18.9%
Max Negative-13.7%-13.0%-17.1%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
5/13/202613.4%12.3%18.9%
2/11/2026-12.3%-8.2%-8.4%
11/12/20254.6%6.0%5.8%
8/13/2025-1.6%-4.7%-5.5%
5/14/20254.8%3.1%4.6%
2/12/20252.1%3.4%-3.2%
11/13/2024-2.1%-2.8%-0.9%
8/14/20246.8%11.0%9.6%
5/15/2024-2.7%-4.5%-8.0%
2/14/2024-2.4%-3.4%-2.7%
11/15/2023-9.8%-9.8%-6.4%
8/16/20233.3%5.7%5.8%
5/17/20231.2%1.6%9.3%
2/15/20235.2%1.6%3.6%
11/16/20225.0%9.4%7.7%
8/17/20225.8%0.9%-7.2%
5/18/2022-13.7%-9.0%-10.3%
2/16/20222.8%0.9%3.2%
11/17/2021-5.5%-2.1%6.5%
8/18/20213.8%7.6%3.1%
5/19/20210.7%0.8%-0.8%
2/9/2021-2.6%-4.6%0.6%
11/12/20207.1%6.5%14.4%
8/12/2020-11.2%-13.0%-17.1%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive141413
# Negative101011
Median Positive4.7%4.6%5.8%
Median Negative-4.1%-4.7%-6.4%
Max Positive13.4%12.3%18.9%
Max Negative-13.7%-13.0%-17.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
04/30/202605/19/202610-Q
01/31/202602/17/202610-Q
10/31/202511/18/202510-Q
07/31/202509/03/202510-K
04/30/202505/20/202510-Q
01/31/202502/18/202510-Q
10/31/202411/19/202410-Q
07/31/202409/05/202410-K
04/30/202405/21/202410-Q
01/31/202402/20/202410-Q
10/31/202311/21/202310-Q
07/31/202309/07/202310-K
04/30/202305/24/202310-Q
01/31/202302/21/202310-Q
10/31/202211/22/202210-Q
07/31/202209/08/202210-K
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
04/30/202605/19/202610-Q
01/31/202602/17/202610-Q
10/31/202511/18/202510-Q
07/31/202509/03/202510-K
04/30/202505/20/202510-Q
01/31/202502/18/202510-Q
10/31/202411/19/202410-Q
07/31/202409/05/202410-K
04/30/202405/21/202410-Q
01/31/202402/20/202410-Q
10/31/202311/21/202310-Q
07/31/202309/07/202310-K
04/30/202305/24/202310-Q
01/31/202302/21/202310-Q
10/31/202211/22/202210-Q
07/31/202209/08/202210-K
04/30/202205/25/202210-Q
01/31/202202/22/202210-Q
10/31/202111/23/202110-Q
07/31/202109/09/202110-K
04/30/202105/25/202110-Q
01/31/202102/16/202110-Q
10/31/202011/17/202010-Q
07/31/202009/03/202010-K
04/30/202005/18/202010-Q
01/31/202002/18/202010-Q
10/31/201911/19/201910-Q
07/31/201909/05/201910-K

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 7/8/2026

Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 5/13/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q4 2026 Revenue16.70 Bil16.80 Bil16.90 Bil   
Q4 2026 Non-GAAP Gross Margin65.5%66.0%66.5%   
Q4 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Margin34.0%34.5%35.0%   
Q4 2026 Non-GAAP EPS1.161.171.18   
Q4 2026 GAAP EPS0.80.820.85   
2026 Revenue62.80 Bil62.90 Bil63.00 Bil2.4% RaisedGuidance: 61.45 Bil for 2026
2026 Non-GAAP EPS4.274.284.293.1% RaisedGuidance: 4.15 for 2026
2026 GAAP EPS3.163.193.214.8% RaisedGuidance: 3.04 for 2026

Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 2/11/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q3 2026 Revenue15.40 Bil15.50 Bil15.60 Bil   
Q3 2026 Non-GAAP Gross Margin65.5%66.0%66.5%   
Q3 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Margin33.5%34.0%34.5%   
Q3 2026 Non-GAAP EPS1.021.031.04   
Q3 2026 GAAP EPS0.730.750.77   
2026 Revenue61.20 Bil61.45 Bil61.70 Bil1.4% RaisedGuidance: 60.60 Bil for 2026
2026 Non-GAAP EPS4.134.154.171.0% RaisedGuidance: 4.11 for 2026
2026 GAAP EPS33.043.083.9% RaisedGuidance: 2.92 for 2026

Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 11/12/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q2 2026 Revenue15.00 Bil15.10 Bil15.20 Bil2.4% Higher NewGuidance: 14.75 Bil for Q1 2026
Q2 2026 Non-GAAP Gross Margin67.5%68.0%68.5% 0Same NewGuidance: 68.0% for Q1 2026
Q2 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Margin33.5%34.0%34.5% 0.5%Higher NewGuidance: 33.5% for Q1 2026
Q2 2026 Non-GAAP EPS1.011.021.034.1% Higher NewGuidance: 0.98 for Q1 2026
Q2 2026 GAAP EPS0.690.710.749.2% Higher NewGuidance: 0.66 for Q1 2026
2026 Revenue60.20 Bil60.60 Bil61.00 Bil1.8% RaisedGuidance: 59.50 Bil for 2026
2026 Non-GAAP EPS4.084.114.142.0% RaisedGuidance: 4.03 for 2026
2026 GAAP EPS2.872.922.982.6% RaisedGuidance: 2.85 for 2026

Insider Activity

Updated 7/13/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Subaiya, Thimaya KEVP, OperationsDirectSell6172026119.917,127854,59916,890,171Form
2Tuszik, OliverEVP, Global SalesDirectSell6112026121.122,607315,77120,921,454Form
3Patterson, MarkEVP and CFODirectSell6112026119.967,397887,32221,294,393Form
4Robbins, CharlesChair and CEODirectSell5272026120.0321,4002,568,58476,467,557Form
5Tuszik, OliverEVP, Global SalesDirectSell5192026114.612,761316,43820,730,293Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Subaiya, Thimaya KEVP, OperationsDirectSell6172026119.917,127854,59916,890,171Form
2Tuszik, OliverEVP, Global SalesDirectSell6112026121.122,607315,77120,921,454Form
3Patterson, MarkEVP and CFODirectSell6112026119.967,397887,32221,294,393Form
4Robbins, CharlesChair and CEODirectSell5272026120.0321,4002,568,58476,467,557Form
5Tuszik, OliverEVP, Global SalesDirectSell5192026114.612,761316,43820,730,293Form
6Stahlkopf, Deborah LEVP and Chief Legal OfficerDirectSell5192026117.316,586772,58020,789,396Form
7Patterson, MarkEVP and CFODirectSell5192026117.295,512646,48522,438,478Form
8Patel, Jeetendra IPresident and CPODirectSell5192026117.287,169840,78128,937,374Form
9Patterson, MarkEVP and CFODirectSell323202677.974,892381,45015,598,009Form
10Tuszik, OliverEVP, Global SalesDirectSell319202679.743,132249,74615,040,000Form
11Stahlkopf, Deborah LEVP and Chief Legal OfficerDirectSell319202679.507,981634,51314,874,770Form
12Subaiya, Thimaya KEVP, OperationsDirectSell312202677.071,744134,41012,076,338Form
13Wong, Maria VictoriaSVP & Chief Acctg OfficerDirectSell312202677.5455142,7252,167,766Form
14Wong, Maria VictoriaSVP & Chief Acctg OfficerDirectSell224202677.742,179169,3952,239,430Form
15Subaiya, Thimaya KEVP, OperationsDirectSell220202678.6010,233804,26812,587,278Form
16Wong, Maria VictoriaSVP & Chief Acctg OfficerDirectSell217202674.24513,7862,300,376Form
17Patel, Jeetendra IPresident and CPODirectSell217202676.0011,248854,85319,971,065Form
18Robbins, CharlesChair and CEODirectSell217202676.0019,5451,485,39551,002,391Form
19Capellas, Michael D DirectSell1219202577.1310,850836,86011,289,364Form
20Capellas, Michael D DirectSell1219202577.2816,1501,247,99412,149,052Form
21Johnson, Kristina M DirectSell1218202577.1313,4811,039,8454,753,785Form
22Subaiya, Thimaya KEVP, OperationsDirectSell1212202579.461,745138,65814,010,279Form
23Wong, Maria VictoriaSVP & Chief Acctg OfficerDirectSell1212202580.3342834,3812,584,729Form
24Wong, Maria VictoriaSVP & Chief Acctg OfficerDirectSell1124202576.389,801748,5862,522,465Form
25Tuszik, OliverEVP, Global SalesDirectSell1121202579.2113,3531,057,69115,607,507Form
26Subaiya, Thimaya KEVP, OperationsDirectSell1120202578.3356,0384,389,26414,081,518Form
27Patterson, MarkEVP and CFODirectSell1120202577.3068,9165,327,20016,147,694Form
28Robbins, CharlesChair and CEODirectSell1118202577.30116,7349,023,67254,431,841Form
29Tuszik, OliverEVP, Global SalesDirectSell1118202577.98151,17016,406,415Form
30Stahlkopf, Deborah LEVP and Chief Legal OfficerDirectSell1118202577.98201,56015,340,098Form
31Robbins, CharlesChair and CEODirectSell1118202578.35281,86022,084,65564,319,194Form
32Tuszik, OliverEVP, Global SalesDirectSell1118202576.565,425415,33816,108,806Form
33Stahlkopf, Deborah LEVP and Chief Legal OfficerDirectSell1118202577.85164,58412,813,54915,316,900Form
34Patel, Jeetendra IPresident and CPODirectSell1118202577.86163,89612,760,20121,885,824Form
35Robbins, CharlesChair and CEODirectSell1118202577.82203,83815,863,31185,819,230Form
36Tuszik, OliverEVP, Global SalesDirectSell922202567.9517,5261,190,83913,511,577Form
37Subaiya, Thimaya KEVP, OperationsDirectSell915202566.781,744116,46410,551,816Form
38Wong, Maria VictoriaSVP & Chief Acctg OfficerDirectSell911202568.2542829,2112,089,729Form
39Stahlkopf, Deborah LEVP and Chief Legal OfficerDirectSell911202568.082,718185,05410,701,824Form
40Wong, Maria VictoriaSVP & Chief Acctg OfficerDirectSell827202567.283,162212,7392,117,178Form
41Subaiya, Thimaya KEVP, OperationsDirectSell820202566.847,511502,02210,792,159Form
42Patterson, MarkEVP and CFODirectSell819202566.987,230484,29410,574,636Form
43Patel, Jeetendra IPresident and CPODirectSell819202566.609,061603,43715,810,509Form
44Robbins, CharlesChair and CEODirectSell819202566.6330,5572,036,05742,577,483Form
45Stahlkopf, Deborah LEVP and Chief Legal OfficerDirectSell819202566.609,783651,56810,767,048Form
46Wong, Maria VictoriaSVP & Chief Acctg OfficerDirectSell819202568.6147532,5902,375,976Form

Investor Activity (13F)

Updated Jul 23, 2026
13F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)

Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.

Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Oribel Capital Management, LP$51.0 Mil7.8%41ADD +136.8%13F
Harbor Island Capital LLC$16.0 Mil5.9%16Hold13F
WELLCOME TRUST LTD (THE) as trustee of the WELLCOME TRUST$465.5 Mil5.8%21Hold13F
Westerly Capital Management, LLC$17.5 Mil5.4%36New13F
Westchester Capital Management, Inc.$19.5 Mil3.9%45Hold13F
Lone Peak Global Investors LLC$23.4 Mil3.9%42ADD +10.7%13F
Randolph Co Inc$40.6 Mil3.9%43Hold13F
Minneapolis Portfolio Management Group, LLC$33.2 Mil3.5%33Hold13F
Weybosset Research & Management LLC$11.7 Mil3.4%33Hold13F
Promethos Capital, LLC$9.9 Mil2.7%46TRIM -6.3%13F
Cincinnati Specialty Underwriters Insurance CO$10.0 Mil2.4%46ADD +44.7%13F
Summit Street Capital Management, LLC$15.8 Mil2.2%31Hold13F
Benchstone Capital Management LP$17.6 Mil2.1%38New13F
Glenview Capital Management, LLC$26.4 Mil0.7%41New13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Glenview Capital Management, LLC$26.4 Mil0.7%41New13F
Benchstone Capital Management LP$17.6 Mil2.1%38New13F
Westerly Capital Management, LLC$17.5 Mil5.4%36New13F
Oribel Capital Management, LP$51.0 Mil7.8%41ADD +136.8%13F
Cincinnati Specialty Underwriters Insurance CO$10.0 Mil2.4%46ADD +44.7%13F
Lone Peak Global Investors LLC$23.4 Mil3.9%42ADD +10.7%13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQAs OfFiling
St. James Investment Company, LLC$9.1 Mil1.5%30ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Benson Investment Management Company, Inc.$7.1 Mil2.5%50ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Promethos Capital, LLC$9.9 Mil2.7%46TRIM -6.3%Mar 31, 202613F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
WELLCOME TRUST LTD (THE) as trustee of the WELLCOME TRUST$465.5 Mil5.8%21Hold13F
Oribel Capital Management, LP$51.0 Mil7.8%41ADD +136.8%13F
Randolph Co Inc$40.6 Mil3.9%43Hold13F
Minneapolis Portfolio Management Group, LLC$33.2 Mil3.5%33Hold13F
Glenview Capital Management, LLC$26.4 Mil0.7%41New13F
Lone Peak Global Investors LLC$23.4 Mil3.9%42ADD +10.7%13F
Westchester Capital Management, Inc.$19.5 Mil3.9%45Hold13F
Benchstone Capital Management LP$17.6 Mil2.1%38New13F
Westerly Capital Management, LLC$17.5 Mil5.4%36New13F
Harbor Island Capital LLC$16.0 Mil5.9%16Hold13F
Summit Street Capital Management, LLC$15.8 Mil2.2%31Hold13F
Weybosset Research & Management LLC$11.7 Mil3.4%33Hold13F
Cincinnati Specialty Underwriters Insurance CO$10.0 Mil2.4%46ADD +44.7%13F
Promethos Capital, LLC$9.9 Mil2.7%46TRIM -6.3%13F

CSCO Trade Sentinel


Stock Conviction

High Conviction

CONVICTION RATIONALE

Conviction is high, centered on a powerful business re-acceleration. Cisco is capturing a massive AI infrastructure wave, evidenced by its fiscal 2026 AI order forecast nearly doubling to $9 billion. This is paired with a multi-year campus network refresh, driving total product order growth to an accelerating 35% rate.

STOCK ARCHETYPE
Hybrid: Project-based hardware sales and recurring software/service subscriptions.

Volume of devices sold x Average Selling Price + Number of subscriptions x Average Recurring Revenue. Gross margin on high-volume Networking hardware sales and high-margin, recurring Services revenue.

Looking for high-conviction positions with a better risk/reward profile? See what's currently in the Trefis High Quality Portfolio.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Can a dual AI and campus refresh cycle create a new growth era?

Evidence points to a powerful re-acceleration driven by two distinct, concurrent demand waves.

Mechanism: AI infrastructure demand, with a full-year order forecast raised to $9 billion, combines with a campus refresh, driving total product order growth to 35% year-over-year.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Total product orders accelerated for the third straight quarter to 35% YoY growth in Q3.
  • FY26 AI infrastructure order forecast was raised from $5 billion to $9 billion.
  • Campus networking orders grew over 25% year-over-year in Q3, a record for the segment.
  • Full-year FY26 revenue guidance was raised by 2.4% at the last report.
PRIMARY RISK
Margin Pressure from Hardware Mix

The surge in lower-margin AI hardware sales is compressing profitability, with latest-quarter gross margin falling 2.0 percentage points to 63.6%.

Mechanism: A failure to stabilize gross margins as AI revenue ramps would signal value-destructive growth.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Latest-quarter gross margin fell 2.0 percentage points year-over-year to 63.6%.
  • Product gross margin was 61.9% in Q3, below the 69.2% for Services.
  • Management cited higher memory costs as a primary driver of margin pressure.
  • Inventory grew 66.2% YoY, far outpacing 12% revenue growth, increasing balance sheet risk.
Key KPI Watchlist
KPI Status Rationale
Total Product Orders Growth35% year-over-year growth in Q3 FY2026 - AcceleratingTotal product order growth has shown significant and sustained acceleration throughout fiscal 2026, indicating a powerful upswing in demand for the company's portfolio. The most recent quarter's 35% growth marks a substantial step-up from the 18% growth seen in the prior quarter.
AI Infrastructure Orders$1.9 billion in Q3 FY2026 - AcceleratingWhile the quarterly figure dipped slightly, the overall momentum is extremely strong, evidenced by management nearly doubling the full-year fiscal 2026 forecast for AI orders from $5 billion to $9 billion. This represents a 4.5x increase over the prior fiscal year's total.
Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO)$43.5 billion (As of Q3 FY2026 (April 25, 2026))Represents the total amount of future revenue that is under contract but has not yet been recognized, providing visibility into future revenue streams from products and services.
Core Investment Debate

AI Revenue Boom vs. Hardware Margin Squeeze

BULL VIEW

Bulls believe the 35% product order growth signals a generational opportunity that justifies near-term margin pressure, creating significant long-term earnings power as the company scales.

CORE TENSION

Can accelerating 35% product order growth offset the 2.0 percentage point gross margin decline, a trade-off the market's +16.0% post-earnings reaction endorsed?


PREVAILING SENTIMENT
BULLISH

The latest evidence favors the bulls. The market rewarded the massive increase in the AI order forecast, prioritizing top-line acceleration over the acknowledged margin impact.

BEAR VIEW

Bears argue the 2.0 percentage point drop in gross margin reveals a pivot to lower-quality revenue that will fail to translate into meaningful profit growth.

Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
Timeline Event & Metric To Watch
Wednesday, August 12, 2026
Next Quarterly Earnings Report
Watch: Cisco reports Q4 Fiscal Year 2026 financial results and provides guidance for Q1 Fiscal Year 2027.
9/1/2026
Peer HPE Earnings
Watch: Peer Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) is scheduled to report earnings, providing a competitive data point on networking and AI infrastructure demand.
September 20, 2026
Senior Note Matures
Watch: A senior fixed-rate note with a principal amount of $1.5 billion matures.
11/2/2026
Peer Outperformance Highlights Slower Core Growth
Watch: Revenue growth and margin commentary from Arista Networks, a key competitor reporting just before Cisco.
11/10/2026
Margin Pressure From AI Hardware Mix
Watch: Gross margin guidance for Q1 FY27 and commentary on the mix between hardware and software.
11/10/2026
Splunk Revenue Recognition Drag Persists
Watch: Security segment revenue growth and management commentary on the pace of the Splunk cloud transition.
11/10/2026
Q1 Fiscal 2027 Earnings
Watch: Cisco reports Q1 Fiscal Year 2027 financial results, providing the first update on the new fiscal year.
Key Events in Last 6 Months
Date Event Stock Impact
2026-06-23
Supreme Court Ends China Lawsuit
Details: The U.S. Supreme Court ended a lawsuit that had alleged Cisco helped China pursue members of the Falun Gong movement, limiting corporate liability for human rights abuses abroad.
-1.5%
$121.08 -> $119.28
2026-06-02
Agentic Platform for IT Unveiled
Details: Cisco unveiled Cisco Cloud Control, a unified platform for human operators and AI agents to run critical IT infrastructure, advancing its AgenticOps vision.
+4.3%
$120.88 -> $126.03
2026-05-19
AI Agent Collaboration with Tech Leaders
Details: Automation Anywhere announced EnterpriseClaw, a collaboration with Cisco, NVIDIA, Okta, and OpenAI, to run next-generation AI agents inside enterprise systems with centralized control.
-3.8%
$118.44 -> $113.92
2026-05-13
Strong Q3 Earnings and Guidance Raise
Details: Cisco reported record Q3 revenue of $15.8 billion, up 12% year-over-year, with total product orders up 35%. The company raised its full-year 2026 revenue and EPS guidance.
+16.4%
$98.92 -> $115.10
2026-03-23
Security Advancements for Agentic Workforce
Details: Cisco announced it was reimagining security for the agentic workforce, extending Zero Trust Access to AI agents with new capabilities in identity, access management, and policy enforcement.
+4.1%
$76.94 -> $80.12
2026-02-11
Negative Post-Earnings Stock Reaction
Details: Following its earnings report, the stock had a two-day reaction of -13.0%. A news report noted the market was "impatient for growth" despite a beat-and-raise quarter.
-13.1%
$85.51 -> $74.32
2026-01-20
Georgetown University Campus Network Modernization
Details: Georgetown University selected Cisco to transform its campus connectivity, launching one of the largest Wi-Fi 7 initiatives in higher education.
-2.0%
$74.51 -> $73.02
Risk Management
Position Sizing

2% - 4%

REDUCED POSITION

Sizing is volatility-based: CSCO trades at roughly 43% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 15% for the S&P 500 (2.9x the market), around the 100th percentile of its own trailing year. A 2% - 4% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.

Diversification Alternatives
ANET - Arista Networks, Inc.
Pure-Play AI Networking

Arista offers more concentrated exposure to the high-speed data center and AI networking market, with a higher operating margin of 42.8% versus Cisco's 23.7%.

Core Thesis: The company is a focused leader in high-performance switching for cloud and AI data centers.
HPE - Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company
Broader AI Systems

HPE provides exposure to the AI server market in addition to networking, booking $1.8 billion in new AI systems orders in its latest quarter.

Core Thesis: The company is a key supplier of integrated compute, storage, and networking for enterprise AI.
How Is The Market Pricing CSCO?

Cisco is a core infrastructure provider for the AI build-out, capturing massive hardware demand from hyperscalers while simultaneously benefiting from a long-overdue enterprise network upgrade cycle.

Cisco is experiencing a significant demand acceleration driven by two main tailwinds: the urgent need for high-performance networking to support AI workloads, and a major campus networking refresh cycle. The company is capitalizing on the AI trend with its Silicon One architecture and Acacia optics, securing multi-billion dollar orders from hyperscalers. This AI-driven growth is complemented by strong enterprise demand to modernize networks, creating a powerful, dual-engine growth story for the near term.

What will confirm the thesis

Continued triple-digit growth in AI infrastructure orders, acceleration in campus networking order growth, and sustained high single-digit or double-digit growth in total product orders ex-hyperscalers.

What will damage the thesis

A sharp deceleration in hyperscaler orders, commentary about enterprise customers pausing network upgrades, or significant market share loss in core switching to competitors like Arista.

Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis

Minor quarterly fluctuations in the smaller Collaboration or Observability segments; typical stock market volatility unrelated to fundamental demand trends.

Repricing Catalyst

The significant upward revision of AI infrastructure order and revenue expectations for FY2026, signaling that the AI-driven demand is larger and accelerating faster than previously anticipated.

What CSCO Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on the twelve months through fiscal Q2 2026
Networking
$30.8B TTM (52% of Total)
What It Is

Sells core networking technologies including switching, routing, wireless, and servers as both hardware and software to enterprises, public sector, and service/cloud providers to build and transform their network infrastructure.

Who Pays & How

Enterprises and webscale cloud providers pay for high-performance, scalable infrastructure to handle increasing data loads, particularly for AI training and inference workloads. Customers choose Cisco for its integrated portfolio, including its proprietary Silicon One architecture.

Primarily upfront revenue recognition on hardware and perpetual software, with some term licenses and SaaS offerings recognized over time.
Competition
Arista Networks, Inc., Hewlett-Packard Enterprise Company, Dell Technologies Inc., Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd., Nvidia Corporation
Competitors may have greater resources or focus on specific product areas, including 'white box' hardware based on commoditized components.
Ability to provide a broad, integrated portfolio of networking solutions, including proprietary silicon (Cisco Silicon One), and a large installed base.
Security
$8.0B TTM (13% of Total)
What It Is

Sells a portfolio spanning Network Security, Identity and Access Management, SASE, and Threat Intelligence, Detection, and Response (TIDR) solutions, including offerings from the Splunk acquisition, to organizations of all sizes.

Who Pays & How

Organizations pay to protect against increasingly sophisticated cyberattacks, particularly with the rapid growth in AI. Customers choose Cisco for its strategy of moving from point solutions to an integrated platform infused into the network fabric.

A mix of hardware, software licenses, and SaaS. Revenue for security software licenses is generally recognized ratably over the contract term due to the critical nature of continuous updates.
Competition
Palo Alto Networks, Inc., Fortinet, Inc., CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc., Zscaler, Inc.
Some competitors are primarily focused in a specific product area.
Ability to integrate security into the fabric of the network, leveraging telemetry data from its vast networking footprint, strengthened by the Splunk acquisition.
Collaboration
$4.2B TTM (7% of Total)
What It Is

Sells the Webex suite, collaboration devices, Contact Center, and Communication Platform as a Service (CPaaS) offerings to enable distributed teams to collaborate.

Who Pays & How

Enterprises pay to provide technology for employee and customer experiences, enabling collaboration for distributed teams through on-premises, cloud, or hybrid solutions.

A mix of hardware sales, perpetual software licenses, and subscriptions.
Competition
Microsoft Corporation, Zoom Video Communications, Inc., RingCentral, Inc.
Ability to offer end-to-end collaboration solutions that can be delivered on-premises, from the cloud, or in hybrid environments, with AI capabilities embedded across the portfolio.
Observability
$1.1B TTM (2% of Total)
What It Is

Sells network assurance (ThousandEyes), monitoring, analytics, and observability suite offerings (including Splunk Observability and AppDynamics) to provide end-to-end visibility of customer environments.

Who Pays & How

Organizations pay to monitor their entire enterprise—applications, networks, and multi-cloud infrastructures—to prevent downtime and improve digital experiences.

Primarily software offerings, including licenses and SaaS.
Competition
Datadog Inc., Dynatrace Inc., New Relic, Inc.
Ability to provide full-stack insights from infrastructure to application performance, leveraging its deep networking expertise and the addition of Splunk's capabilities.
Services
$15.1B TTM (26% of Total)
What It Is

Provides a broad range of technical support and professional services (planning, design, implementation, consulting) for its products to its entire customer base.

Who Pays & How

Customers pay to protect their network investments, manage risk, and minimize downtime for mission-critical systems by ensuring Cisco products operate efficiently and remain highly available.

Technical support services revenue is recognized ratably over the contract term. Advanced services revenue is recognized as services are delivered.
Competition
Deep expertise tied to its own complex product portfolio and a large global support infrastructure.
CSCO Evolution: Price Return by Era
2021-2023 · Pre-2023: Diversification and Software Transition
+25%
Cisco's revenue mix showed a growing contribution from its Security and Services segments, reflecting a strategic push towards software and recurring revenue. The core Networking segment remained the largest but saw its relative share decline as in the third quarter of fiscal 2024, we acquired Splunk.
2024-Present · Post-2024: AI-Driven Hardware Resurgence
+139%
The advent of generative AI has reignited massive growth in the core Networking segment, driven by hyperscaler demand for AI infrastructure. This has reversed the previous trend, with Networking reasserting its dominance as the primary growth engine, complemented by the acquisition of Splunk to bolster the Security and Observability platforms.
Market Is In Wait-and-See Mode
Price structure is neutral. The price is in a holding pattern with no clear directional commitment from the moving average stack. Relative to SPY: Strong 63D outperformance but 'relative strength' momentum is fading, indicating that money rotation may be maturing. Volume and momentum show mild distribution. The selling pressure is present but not overwhelming. Earnings history is strongly validating. The market rewarded the print and institutional follow-through confirms thesis re-rating is underway.
① Structure
0
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
-1
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
+4
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
3 / 12
1 Price Structure & Trend Potential Bottoming · -
2 Momentum Pausing
3 Relative Strength vs. SPY Facing Relative Strength
4 Institutional Footprint & Volume Neutral / Mixed
5 Volatility Normal
6 Key Price Levels Range · Vol Flat
7 Earnings Reaction History Inconsistent
8 How the Verdict Is Derived Three Pillars
Core Cache Last Updated: 7/22/2026