AppLovin (APP)
Market Price (11/7/2026): $391.05 | Market Cap: $129.6 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Communication Services | Industry: Advertising
AppLovin (APP)
Market Price (11/7/2026): $391.05Market Cap: $129.6 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Advertising
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 58% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 78% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 64%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 64%, CFO LTM is 4.9 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.9 Bil Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -38% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 6.0 Bil Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, Social Media & Creator Economy, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, Show more. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 16x Short seller reportMuddy Waters Research report on 3/27/2025. Key risksAPP key risks include [1] ongoing government investigations (SEC, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 58% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 78% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 64%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 64%, CFO LTM is 4.9 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.9 Bil |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -38% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 6.0 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, Social Media & Creator Economy, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 16x |
| Short seller reportMuddy Waters Research report on 3/27/2025. |
| Key risksAPP key risks include [1] ongoing government investigations (SEC, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
AppLovin (APP) stock has remained largely at the same level since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Disappointing Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings and AI Model Concerns.
AppLovin reported its fiscal Q2 2026 earnings on August 5, 2026, with revenue of $1.92 billion, missing analysts' consensus estimates of $1.94 billion. Management indicated weaker-than-usual improvements in their AI models during the quarter and stated that their generative AI video tool was "still [a] work in progress" and had not yet been fully rolled out. This news led to a significant stock decline of approximately 19.66% on August 6, 2026.
2. Negative Analyst Report on eCommerce Ad Growth.
Just prior to the specified period, on July 13, 2026, a Bank of America Securities analyst published a note highlighting that AppLovin's eCommerce footprint showed slower expansion in June, suggesting a "muted GA start" for its advertising platform. The analyst subsequently lowered revenue estimates for the company, which resulted in a 12.6% drop in AppLovin's stock price on July 13, 2026, setting a negative tone that carried into the analyzed period.
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AppLovin (APP) stock has remained largely at the same level since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Disappointing Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings and AI Model Concerns.
AppLovin reported its fiscal Q2 2026 earnings on August 5, 2026, with revenue of $1.92 billion, missing analysts' consensus estimates of $1.94 billion. Management indicated weaker-than-usual improvements in their AI models during the quarter and stated that their generative AI video tool was "still [a] work in progress" and had not yet been fully rolled out. This news led to a significant stock decline of approximately 19.66% on August 6, 2026.
2. Negative Analyst Report on eCommerce Ad Growth.
Just prior to the specified period, on July 13, 2026, a Bank of America Securities analyst published a note highlighting that AppLovin's eCommerce footprint showed slower expansion in June, suggesting a "muted GA start" for its advertising platform. The analyst subsequently lowered revenue estimates for the company, which resulted in a 12.6% drop in AppLovin's stock price on July 13, 2026, setting a negative tone that carried into the analyzed period.
3. Securities Fraud Class Action Lawsuit Allegations.
A securities fraud class action lawsuit was initiated, alleging that AppLovin made misleading statements between February 12, 2026, and August 5, 2026, regarding the consistent improvement of its AI models and the readiness of its generative AI video creative tool. The lawsuit specifically cited the stock price declines on July 13, 2026, and August 6, 2026, as evidence of the impact of these alleged misrepresentations, contributing to investor uncertainty.
4. Substantial Insider Selling Activity.
During the six months leading up to October 2026, AppLovin insiders engaged in significant selling activity, offloading $197.30 million worth of stock without any corresponding insider purchases. This included a single sale by an Independent Director for $98 million worth of shares. Such considerable insider selling can signal a lack of confidence in the company's immediate future performance, contributing to downward pressure on the stock price.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -1.2% change in APP stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a -22.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 395.90 | 391.22 | -1.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6,164 | 7,609 | 23.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 64.3% | 65.9% | 2.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 33.7 | 26.0 | -22.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 337 | 334 | 1.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -1.2% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| APP | -1.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | -1.6% | -13.2% |
| Sector (XLC) | -3.2% | 34.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -12.4% change in APP stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a -42.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 446.35 | 391.22 | -12.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,481 | 7,609 | 38.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 60.8% | 65.9% | 8.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 45.3 | 26.0 | -42.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 338 | 334 | 1.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -12.4% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| APP | -12.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.6% | 3.1% |
| Sector (XLC) | -9.8% | 31.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -38.6% change in APP stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a -70.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 637.33 | 391.22 | -38.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,252 | 7,609 | 78.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 57.1% | 65.9% | 15.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 88.8 | 26.0 | -70.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 339 | 334 | 1.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -38.6% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| APP | -38.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.7% | 23.1% |
| Sector (XLC) | -7.9% | 35.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 973.6% change in APP stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 9344.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 36.44 | 391.22 | 973.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,881 | 7,609 | 164.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.7% | 65.9% | 9344.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 647.2 | 26.0 | -96.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 357 | 334 | 7.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 973.6% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| APP | 973.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 81.9% | 40.0% |
| Sector (XLC) | 67.1% | 44.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| APP Return | 45% | -89% | 278% | 713% | 108% | -42% | 500% |
| Peers Return | -1% | -62% | 46% | 16% | 48% | 24% | 17% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| APP Win Rate | 67% | 8% | 83% | 83% | 58% | 27% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 47% | 32% | 63% | 50% | 50% | 51% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 45% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| APP Max Drawdown | - | -90% | -27% | -24% | -57% | -66% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -47% | -73% | -45% | -43% | -54% | -49% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: U, TTD, META, APPS, MGNI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/6/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | APP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -55.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 125.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 153 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -20.4% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.6% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 9 days | 18 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -22.4% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 25 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -81.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 442.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 684 days | 427 days |
In The Past
AppLovin's stock fell -55.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 125.3% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | APP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -55.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 125.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 153 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -20.4% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.6% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 9 days | 18 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -22.4% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 25 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -81.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 442.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 684 days | 427 days |
In The Past
AppLovin's stock fell -55.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 125.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About AppLovin (APP)
AppLovin (APP) is a technology company that provides a comprehensive software-based platform for mobile app developers. Its core mission is to help these developers enhance both the marketing and monetization of their applications across the United States and internationally. Essentially, AppLovin offers the essential tools for developers to efficiently acquire users for their apps and effectively generate revenue from them.
The company's platform includes several key software solutions. For marketing, AppDiscovery is a powerful tool that matches advertiser demand with publisher supply through sophisticated auctions, enabling developers to acquire new users effectively. To support data-driven growth, AppLovin also offers Adjust, an analytics platform that provides marketers with solutions for measuring campaign performance, optimizing strategies, and protecting user data, which is crucial for informed decision-making.
For monetization, AppLovin provides MAX, an in-app bidding software designed to optimize the value of an app's advertising inventory by facilitating real-time competitive auctions among various advertisers. AppLovin's primary clientele includes a wide array of business clients such as advertisers, publishers, and internet platforms, all seeking to leverage its integrated software solutions to thrive in the dynamic mobile app ecosystem.
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1. Think of it like a **Google for mobile app advertising.**
2. It's like a **Salesforce for mobile app developers.**
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- AppDiscovery: A marketing software solution that matches advertiser demand with publisher supply through auctions.
- Adjust: An analytics platform that helps marketers grow their mobile apps with solutions for measuring, optimizing campaigns, and protecting user data.
- MAX: An in-app bidding software that optimizes the value of an app's advertising inventory by running a real-time competitive auction.
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AppLovin (APP) sells primarily to other companies, providing a software-based platform for mobile app developers to enhance the marketing and monetization of their apps. Based on the provided information, specific names of major customer companies are not disclosed. Instead, AppLovin's business clients are broadly identified by the following categories:
- Mobile app developers
- Advertisers
- Publishers
- Internet platforms
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Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)
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Adam Foroughi, Chief Executive Officer & Co-Founder
Adam Foroughi is the co-founder and Chief Executive Officer of AppLovin. He co-founded AppLovin in 2012, aiming to create a comprehensive platform for mobile app developers. Prior to AppLovin, he founded two other marketing technology companies, Lifestreet Media Inc. and Social Hour Inc. Foroughi began his career as a derivatives trader after graduating from the University of California, Berkeley, with a degree in economics. He led AppLovin through its successful Initial Public Offering (IPO) in April 2021.
Matt Stumpf, Chief Financial Officer
Matt Stumpf is AppLovin's Chief Financial Officer. He joined the company in 2020 as Vice President of Finance, where he was instrumental in building the corporate finance team and guiding the company through its initial public offering.
Herald Chen, Director (Former President & Chief Financial Officer)
Herald Chen serves as a Director on AppLovin's Board, and previously held the roles of President and Chief Financial Officer for AppLovin from November 2019 to December 2023. Prior to joining AppLovin, Mr. Chen was a Partner at the global investment firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. L.P. (KKR), where he led the Technology, Media & Telecom (TMT) industry team from 2007 to 2019. He also previously worked for Goldman Sachs and has extensive board experience, serving on the boards of both public and private technology companies, including GoDaddy, Inc.
Victoria Valenzuela, Chief Administrative & Legal Officer
Victoria Valenzuela has served as AppLovin's Chief Administrative & Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary since July 2025. She initially joined the company as Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary in May 2020 following AppLovin's acquisition of Machine Zone, where she had been the Chief Legal Officer since 2015. Earlier in her career, she served as General Counsel, Vice President, Legal Affairs, and Corporate Secretary of Cypress Semiconductor Corporation from 2004 to 2014.
Basil Shikin, Chief Technology Officer
Basil Shikin is the Chief Technology Officer at AppLovin. He holds a Masters in Mathematics from Saint-Petersburg State University.
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The key risks to AppLovin's (APP) business primarily stem from regulatory challenges related to data privacy, intense competition in the mobile advertising sector, and ongoing legal issues.
- Regulatory Scrutiny and Data Privacy Concerns: AppLovin faces significant regulatory risk due to investigations by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and several state attorneys general (including Delaware, Oregon, and Connecticut) concerning its data collection practices and alleged violations of platform partners' service agreements and privacy rules. This scrutiny centers on whether AppLovin impermissibly harvested user identifiers for targeted advertising, potentially circumventing privacy restrictions imposed by platforms like Apple (App Tracking Transparency) and Google (Android Privacy Sandbox). Such investigations could result in substantial financial penalties, reputational damage, and mandated alterations to AppLovin's core data-driven business model. The company has already discontinued its "Array" product following allegations of installing apps without proper user consent.
- Intensified Competition and AI Disruption in Mobile Advertising: AppLovin operates in a highly competitive and rapidly evolving mobile advertising landscape. Major technology companies such as Google (AdMob, Ad Manager), Meta (App Ads), and Unity (LevelPlay) are significant competitors, continuously enhancing their AI-powered advertising platforms. There is a growing concern that these larger, vertically integrated ecosystems, with their deeper resources and advanced AI capabilities, could challenge AppLovin's market position, compress its high margins, or reduce the need for intermediaries in digital advertising.
- Class Action Lawsuits and Allegations of Misleading Practices: AppLovin has been subject to multiple class-action lawsuits alleging securities fraud and misleading investors, specifically concerning its AI technology (AXON 2.0) and deceptive advertising practices. Short-seller reports have also accused the company of improper user tracking, a murky business model, and poor data hygiene, which have led to significant stock price declines following their publication. While the company denies many of these allegations, these legal and reputational challenges can impact investor confidence and operational stability.
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The increasing control over user data and app functionality by mobile operating system providers (Apple and Google), leading to further restrictions on third-party tracking, targeting, and measurement capabilities. This trend, exemplified by Apple's App Tracking Transparency (ATT) framework and Google's ongoing development of the Privacy Sandbox for Android, directly impacts AppLovin's core business by making personalized advertising and effective attribution more challenging.
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- In-App Advertising (AppDiscovery and MAX): The global in-app advertising market was valued at approximately USD 390.5 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 952 billion by 2034, demonstrating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.2% from 2025 to 2034. Other estimates indicate a global market size of USD 387.76 billion in 2025, expected to reach USD 614.74 billion by 2031 at a CAGR of 7.99% from 2026-2031. Asia Pacific holds a significant share of this market, accounting for over 37.6% in 2025. North America also represents a substantial portion, with a 37.78% revenue share in 2025.
- Mobile App Analytics (Adjust): The global mobile app and web analytics market was valued at approximately USD 12.77 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach around USD 58.34 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 16.40% from 2025 to 2034. Another report estimates the global app analytics market at USD 8.22 billion in 2025, projected to reach USD 23.74 billion by 2031, growing at a 19.32% CAGR from 2026-2031.
- Mobile Marketing Platforms (broader category): The global mobile marketing platforms market was valued at USD 43.21 billion in 2026 and is projected to grow to USD 173.74 billion by 2035, at an estimated CAGR of 19% from 2026 to 2035.
- E-commerce Advertising (Future Opportunity): AppLovin's CEO has indicated that the addressable market outside of gaming, which includes e-commerce, could be "5x to 10x the size" of the gaming market.
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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for AppLovin (APP)
AppLovin (APP) is anticipated to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives and market trends:
- Expansion into E-commerce Advertising: AppLovin is aggressively expanding its presence in the e-commerce advertising market, which CEO Adam Foroughi has indicated could be "five to 10 times bigger than gaming." This expansion involves scaling its self-service platform for e-commerce clients and introducing new generative AI-powered advertising tools, such as 30- to 60-second AI video ads and dynamic product catalogs. The company's AXON ads manager is slated for a global public launch in the first half of 2026, which is expected to further support this push.
- Advancements in AI Technology: The continuous development and deployment of AppLovin's core AI technologies, particularly the AXON platform and its upgraded version, AXON 2, are crucial for future growth. These AI models enhance ad optimization, increase bid density, and improve the value of content discovery, leading to more effective advertising campaigns for clients. The integration of generative AI creative tools is also expected to boost the volume of ad creatives and attract new advertisers.
- Sustained Growth in Mobile Gaming Advertising: The company's foundational mobile gaming advertising business is projected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with management expecting sustained annual growth rates of 20% to 30%. Ongoing technological advancements within its core mobile gaming business continue to contribute significantly to its robust performance.
- Global Expansion of the AXON Platform: AppLovin plans to broaden its reach by opening its web advertising platform to major international markets. Previously, these campaigns were predominantly limited to the United States. This global rollout of the AXON ads manager, targeted for the first half of 2026, is expected to diversify and significantly expand its advertiser base.
- Transition to a Pure Advertising and Self-Service Platform: AppLovin is strategically evolving into a dedicated advertising technology platform, having divested its gaming arm to sharpen its focus. The development of its self-service platform within the AXON ads manager is a key component of this strategy, enabling the company to efficiently manage an increasing number of clients and scale operations without a proportional rise in costs. This strategic pivot is anticipated to enhance profitability and establish more predictable recurring revenue streams.
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Share Repurchases
- AppLovin's Board of Directors increased its share repurchase authorization by $3.2 billion in late October 2025, bringing the total remaining authorization to $3.3 billion.
- The company repurchased and withheld approximately $2.58 billion of its Class A common stock for the full year 2025.
- In February 2024, AppLovin intended to repurchase approximately $570 million of its Class A common stock concurrently with a secondary offering by a selling stockholder.
Share Issuance
- AppLovin became a public company on April 15, 2021, trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker APP.
- In December 2021, an upsized secondary offering of 7,500,000 shares of Class A common stock was priced at $83.00 per share, with all proceeds going to selling stockholders. AppLovin did not offer any shares in this transaction.
- Proceeds from the issuance of common stock upon the exercise of stock options and purchases under the Employee Stock Purchase Plan were $25.329 million for the full year 2025 and $28.8 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024.
Outbound Investments
- AppLovin completed the sale of its mobile gaming business to Tripledot Studios for $400 million in cash and approximately 20% equity in Tripledot, closing on June 30, 2025.
- In January 2022, AppLovin finalized the acquisition of mobile monetization company MoPub from Twitter for $1.1 billion.
- AppLovin acquired mobile app measurement company Adjust in February 2021.
Capital Expenditures
- AppLovin's net capital expenditures were -$11 million in 2021, -$41 million in 2022, -$4 million in 2023, $4.22 million in 2024, and $0.00 million in 2025.
- The company's capital allocation strategy includes capital expenditures to purchase hardware and software, and continued investment in its IT infrastructure to support growth.
- A focus for capital allocation includes expanding its AI capabilities to support the further development of its advertising solutions, such as Axon AI.
Peer Outperformance in Advertising
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wireless Telecommunication Services | 3 | -12.4% | 15.8% | 38.9% | ECHO 262% · TMUS 39% |
| Publishing | 6 | 26.7% | 15.5% | 8.2% | NYT 44% · NWSA 13% · WLY 10% |
| Integrated Telecommunication Services | 21 | -14.7% | 18.9% | -23.8% | GSAT 237% · AD 102% · TDS 94% |
| Movies & Entertainment | 23 | 18.2% | 45.0% | -31.4% | IMAX 130% · FWONA 94% · BATRA 81% |
| Interactive Media & Services | 33 | -38.1% | -38.9% | -71.0% | GOOGL 93% · META 81% · CARG -8% |
| Broadcasting | 14 | -12.9% | -21.6% | -71.3% | FOXA 71% · NXST 34% · SIRI -39% |
| Alternative Carriers | 4 | -40.1% | 15.4% | -73.3% | IRDM 10% · LUMN -69% |
| Advertising ← | 18 | -35.7% | -12.3% | -73.3% | APP 297% · OMC 50% · MGNI 21% |
| Interactive Home Entertainment | 8 | -40.2% | -62.3% | -73.5% | TTWO 15% · RBLX -37% · PINS -59% |
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Peer Comparisons
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Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 39.45 |
| Mkt Cap | 14.4 |
| Rev LTM | 2,585 |
| Op Inc LTM | 364 |
| FCF LTM | 726 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 550 |
| CFO LTM | 852 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 645 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 20.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 14.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 26.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 6.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 44.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 47.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 19.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 14.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 37.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 33.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 28.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 24.1% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| End-to-end advertising solutions through Axon Ads Manager, MAX, Adjust, and Wurl | 5,481 | 3,224 | 1,842 | ||
| Advertising | 1,049 | 674 | |||
| Apps | 1,768 | 2,119 | |||
| Total | 5,481 | 3,224 | 1,842 | 2,817 | 2,793 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| End-to-end advertising solutions through Axon Ads Manager, MAX, Adjust, and Wurl | 3,433 | 1,590 | 458 |
| Total | 3,433 | 1,590 | 458 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $391.22 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 130.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 04/15/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -46.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $293.36 | $409.30 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | 33.4% | -4.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 84.7% | 80.1% |
| Downside Capture | 298.62 | 348.16 |
| Upside Capture | 165.57 | 202.76 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 33.9% | 37.6% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.78 | 2.28 | 2.44 | 1.79 | 2.28 | 2.28 |
| Up Beta | -2.37 | 2.14 | 2.28 | 1.20 | 1.43 | 1.94 |
| Down Beta | 4.67 | 3.56 | 1.96 | 1.75 | 2.16 | 2.18 |
| Up Capture | 28% | 87% | 126% | 106% | 285% | 9102% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 14 | 23 | 52 | 115 | 392 |
| Down Capture | 343% | 278% | 350% | 226% | 179% | 113% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 14 | 29 | 41 | 74 | 136 | 359 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with APP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| APP | -36.7% | 80.1% | -0.22 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | -6.8% | 16.6% | -0.61 | 35.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 9.5% | 13.6% | 0.40 | 22.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 1.6% | 28.7% | 0.05 | 24.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 38.4% | 21.2% | 1.42 | -7.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.3% | 14.2% | 0.51 | -2.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -26.9% | 43.6% | -0.60 | 21.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with APP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| APP | 31.9% | 79.5% | 0.68 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 6.5% | 21.1% | 0.22 | 49.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.3% | 17.3% | 0.48 | 45.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.5% | 19.1% | 0.74 | 12.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.1% | 19.6% | 0.30 | 6.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.3% | 18.9% | -0.04 | 27.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.1% | 51.6% | 0.26 | 26.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with APP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| APP | 19.6% | 77.9% | 0.75 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 8.5% | 22.1% | 0.42 | 47.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.0% | 18.0% | 0.70 | 44.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.9% | 16.5% | 0.59 | 12.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 18.1% | 0.33 | 6.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.9% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 25.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.1% | 66.3% | 1.00 | 22.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 11/7/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2026 | 31.0% | ||
| 8/5/2026 | -19.7% | -27.3% | -24.9% |
| 5/6/2026 | 6.4% | -3.3% | 18.8% |
| 2/11/2026 | -19.7% | -9.8% | 0.4% |
| 11/5/2025 | 0.7% | -5.2% | 11.8% |
| 8/6/2025 | 12.0% | 14.3% | 25.5% |
| 5/7/2025 | 11.9% | 24.1% | 37.7% |
| 2/12/2025 | 24.0% | 18.3% | -23.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 16 | 16 | 14 |
| # Negative | 7 | 6 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 21.7% | 23.5% | 29.8% |
| Median Negative | -6.7% | -13.3% | -21.9% |
| Max Positive | 46.3% | 68.5% | 138.2% |
| Max Negative | -19.7% | -27.3% | -31.5% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2026 | 31.0% | ||
| 8/5/2026 | -19.7% | -27.3% | -24.9% |
| 5/6/2026 | 6.4% | -3.3% | 18.8% |
| 2/11/2026 | -19.7% | -9.8% | 0.4% |
| 11/5/2025 | 0.7% | -5.2% | 11.8% |
| 8/6/2025 | 12.0% | 14.3% | 25.5% |
| 5/7/2025 | 11.9% | 24.1% | 37.7% |
| 2/12/2025 | 24.0% | 18.3% | -23.0% |
| 11/6/2024 | 46.3% | 68.5% | 138.2% |
| 8/7/2024 | 14.2% | 26.0% | 25.9% |
| 5/8/2024 | 14.4% | 13.6% | 10.7% |
| 2/14/2024 | 24.8% | 23.3% | 34.7% |
| 11/8/2023 | -1.1% | 0.8% | -6.9% |
| 8/9/2023 | 26.5% | 32.8% | 43.2% |
| 5/10/2023 | 23.5% | 36.9% | 27.2% |
| 2/8/2023 | 27.1% | 33.0% | -2.9% |
| 11/9/2022 | 18.5% | 6.0% | -24.6% |
| 8/10/2022 | -14.8% | -25.4% | -31.5% |
| 5/11/2022 | 34.7% | 33.8% | 32.4% |
| 2/16/2022 | -6.7% | -16.9% | -20.8% |
| 11/10/2021 | 20.0% | 10.1% | -5.3% |
| 8/11/2021 | -2.6% | 9.0% | 32.3% |
| 5/12/2021 | -4.6% | 23.7% | 57.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 16 | 16 | 14 |
| # Negative | 7 | 6 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 21.7% | 23.5% | 29.8% |
| Median Negative | -6.7% | -13.3% | -21.9% |
| Max Positive | 46.3% | 68.5% | 138.2% |
| Max Negative | -19.7% | -27.3% | -31.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/26/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/26/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/12/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/13/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/11/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/12/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/13/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/14/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 04/15/2021 | 424B4 |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 11/5/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 11/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 Revenue | Reported | 2.37 Bil | 2.38 Bil | 2.40 Bil | 15.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 2.07 Bil for Q3 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 2.00 Bil | 2.01 Bil | 2.02 Bil | 16.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.73 Bil for Q3 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | Reported | 84.0% | 84.5% | 85.0% | 1.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 83.0% for Q3 2026 | |
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Revenue | Reported | 2.06 Bil | 2.07 Bil | 2.08 Bil | 7.3% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.93 Bil for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 1.71 Bil | 1.73 Bil | 1.74 Bil | 5.8% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.63 Bil for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | Reported | 83.0% | 83.0% | 83.0% | -1.5% | Lower New | Guidance: 84.5% for Q2 2026 | |
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Revenue | Reported | 1.92 Bil | 1.93 Bil | 1.95 Bil | 9.7% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.76 Bil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 1.61 Bil | 1.63 Bil | 1.65 Bil | 10.1% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.48 Bil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | Reported | 84.0% | 84.5% | 85.0% | 0.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 84.0% for Q1 2026 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/11/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | Reported | 1.75 Bil | 1.76 Bil | 1.77 Bil | 11.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.58 Bil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 1.47 Bil | 1.48 Bil | 1.50 Bil | 13.4% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.30 Bil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | Reported | 84.0% | 84.0% | 84.0% | 1.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 82.5% for Q4 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 10/16/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Webb, Maynard G JR | See footnote | Sell | 7082026 | 521.29 | 3,076 | 1,603,489 | 62,786,295 | Form | |
| 2 | Vivas, Eduardo | Direct | Sell | 6182026 | 504.06 | 163,910 | 82,620,804 | 3,420,104,698 | Form | |
| 3 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 494.98 | 22,544 | 11,158,868 | 1,152,161,086 | Form |
| 4 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 482.02 | 19,123 | 9,217,638 | 1,132,853,178 | Form |
| 5 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 486.95 | 33,042 | 16,089,894 | 1,153,762,043 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Webb, Maynard G JR | See footnote | Sell | 7082026 | 521.29 | 3,076 | 1,603,489 | 62,786,295 | Form | |
| 2 | Vivas, Eduardo | Direct | Sell | 6182026 | 504.06 | 163,910 | 82,620,804 | 3,420,104,698 | Form | |
| 3 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 494.98 | 22,544 | 11,158,868 | 1,152,161,086 | Form |
| 4 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 482.02 | 19,123 | 9,217,638 | 1,132,853,178 | Form |
| 5 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 486.95 | 33,042 | 16,089,894 | 1,153,762,043 | Form |
| 6 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 476.30 | 8,624 | 4,107,570 | 1,144,248,392 | Form |
| 7 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO | See footnote | Sell | 6122026 | 503.91 | 20,833 | 10,497,933 | 1,492,670,771 | Form |
| 8 | Valenzuela, Victoria | CALO & Corp. Secretary | Direct | Sell | 6082026 | 565.89 | 20,000 | 11,317,856 | 138,055,767 | Form |
| 9 | Webb, Maynard G JR | See footnote | Sell | 6052026 | 582.04 | 3,076 | 1,790,365 | 71,893,973 | Form | |
| 10 | Stumpf, Matthew | Chief Financial Officer (CFO) | Direct | Sell | 5292026 | 600.00 | 9,052 | 5,431,200 | 106,470,000 | Form |
| 11 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | See footnote | Sell | 5272026 | 488.90 | 2,889 | 1,412,419 | 8,773,232 | Form |
| 12 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | See footnote | Sell | 5272026 | 483.99 | 15,915 | 7,702,632 | 8,685,123 | Form |
| 13 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 484.42 | 62,804 | 30,423,333 | 1,545,164,196 | Form |
| 14 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | See footnote | Sell | 5272026 | 483.67 | 8,112 | 3,923,494 | 9,095,330 | Form |
| 15 | Vivas, Eduardo | Direct | Sell | 3202026 | 458.67 | 20,910 | 9,590,790 | 3,262,236,366 | Form | |
| 16 | Vivas, Eduardo | Direct | Sell | 3182026 | 453.49 | 163,910 | 74,331,211 | 3,160,530,907 | Form | |
| 17 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | See footnote | Sell | 3122026 | 513.65 | 204 | 104,784 | 13,825,790 | Form |
| 18 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | See footnote | Sell | 3122026 | 490.89 | 5,685 | 2,790,708 | 13,313,420 | Form |
| 19 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | See footnote | Sell | 3122026 | 489.05 | 6,531 | 3,193,985 | 13,163,756 | Form |
| 20 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | See footnote | Sell | 3122026 | 486.31 | 9,265 | 4,505,626 | 13,089,900 | Form |
| 21 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 486.43 | 62,804 | 30,549,692 | 1,583,459,455 | Form |
| 22 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | See footnote | Sell | 3122026 | 477.47 | 5,231 | 2,497,651 | 14,638,307 | Form |
| 23 | Valenzuela, Victoria | CALO & Corp. Secretary | Direct | Sell | 12192025 | 657.13 | 7,609 | 5,000,102 | 182,097,294 | Form |
| 24 | Harvey, Dawson Alyssa | Direct | Sell | 12102025 | 693.32 | 150 | 103,998 | 1,961,402 | Form | |
| 25 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | See footnote | Sell | 11262025 | 549.09 | 15,540 | 8,532,891 | 19,706,366 | Form |
| 26 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | See footnote | Sell | 11262025 | 548.45 | 14,708 | 8,066,634 | 19,683,399 | Form |
| 27 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | See footnote | Sell | 11262025 | 546.93 | 14,867 | 8,131,244 | 19,628,857 | Form |
| 28 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 11262025 | 559.87 | 2,857 | 1,599,539 | 1,859,218,377 | Form |
| 29 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | See footnote | Sell | 11262025 | 538.10 | 7,385 | 3,973,895 | 24,754,917 | Form |
| 30 | Shikin, Vasily | Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 11262025 | 545.38 | 27,143 | 14,803,141 | 1,812,655,869 | Form |
| 31 | Stumpf, Matthew | Chief Financial Officer (CFO) | Direct | Sell | 11242025 | 515.76 | 4,884 | 2,518,953 | 98,592,451 | Form |
| 32 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO & Chairperson | See footnote | Sell | 11242025 | 517.11 | 15,931 | 8,238,139 | 1,542,559,090 | Form |
| 33 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO & Chairperson | Direct | Sell | 11242025 | 520.29 | 30,888 | 16,070,827 | 1,328,393,160 | Form |
| 34 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO & Chairperson | See footnote | Sell | 11242025 | 497.50 | 4,069 | 2,024,347 | 1,491,991,002 | Form |
| 35 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO & Chairperson | Direct | Sell | 11242025 | 502.48 | 17,112 | 8,598,515 | 1,298,444,658 | Form |
| 36 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO & Chairperson | See footnote | Sell | 11242025 | 556.56 | 8,582 | 4,776,368 | 1,671,348,518 | Form |
| 37 | Foroughi, Arash Adam | CEO & Chairperson | See footnote | Sell | 11242025 | 532.62 | 18,918 | 10,076,066 | 1,604,031,619 | Form |
| 38 | Harvey, Dawson Alyssa | Direct | Sell | 11132025 | 589.18 | 200 | 117,836 | 1,755,167 | Form | |
| 39 | Vivas, Eduardo | Direct | Sell | 11132025 | 650.91 | 150,000 | 97,636,465 | 4,643,129,577 | Form | |
| 40 | Billings, Craig Scott | Direct | Sell | 11072025 | 592.92 | 2,350 | 1,393,368 | 2,197,965 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 7, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kensico Capital Management Corp | $1.3 Bil | 26.7% | 20 | ADD +5.3% | 13F |
| Spruce House Investment Management LLC | $712.4 Mil | 25.4% | 11 | Hold | 13F |
| Augustine Asset Management Inc | $106.3 Mil | 23.9% | 112 | Hold | 13F |
| Greenstone Partners & Co., LLC | $77.7 Mil | 19.7% | 9 | Hold | 13F |
| Panview Capital Ltd | $87.4 Mil | 18.7% | 12 | ADD +133.8% | 13F |
| Keenan Capital, LLC | $76.1 Mil | 16.1% | 9 | ADD +8.2% | 13F |
| 3G Capital Partners LP | $37.8 Mil | 13.4% | 10 | Hold | 13F |
| Dorsey Asset Management, LLC | $126.1 Mil | 10.0% | 11 | New | 13F |
| Jericho Capital Asset Management L.P. | $667.5 Mil | 9.9% | 23 | TRIM -20.0% | 13F |
| Selkirk Management LLC | $19.4 Mil | 6.6% | 11 | ADD +36.4% | 13F |
| Proem Advisors LLC | $15.3 Mil | 5.1% | 29 | ADD +1440.0% | 13F |
| Infinitum Asset Management, LLC | $39.8 Mil | 5.0% | 21 | New | 13F |
| No Street GP LP | $72.0 Mil | 4.8% | 31 | ADD +27.9% | 13F |
| Spyglass Capital Management LLC | $66.3 Mil | 4.7% | 25 | ADD +38.1% | 13F |
| Lone Pine Capital LLC | $583.0 Mil | 4.6% | 36 | ADD +87.7% | 13F |
| Whale Rock Capital Management LLC | $276.8 Mil | 3.6% | 35 | TRIM -14.0% | 13F |
| KCM Capital Inc | $15.9 Mil | 3.0% | 31 | TRIM -20.0% | 13F |
| Blue Whale Capital LLP | $59.3 Mil | 2.8% | 26 | ADD +43.5% | 13F |
| Ratan Capital Management LP | $7.2 Mil | 2.7% | 37 | TRIM -57.1% | 13F |
| D1 Capital Partners L.P. | $266.4 Mil | 2.4% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Palestra Capital Management LLC | $50.1 Mil | 2.0% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| KADENSA CAPITAL Ltd | $11.9 Mil | 1.7% | 39 | New | 13F |
| UNICOM Systems, Inc. | $12.7 Mil | 1.3% | 32 | Hold | 13F |
| Kinetic Partners Management, LP | $22.2 Mil | 1.2% | 49 | TRIM -37.4% | 13F |
| Dorsal Capital Management, LP | $29.9 Mil | 1.2% | 25 | TRIM -25.0% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorsey Asset Management, LLC | $126.1 Mil | 10.0% | 11 | New | 13F |
| Infinitum Asset Management, LLC | $39.8 Mil | 5.0% | 21 | New | 13F |
| KADENSA CAPITAL Ltd | $11.9 Mil | 1.7% | 39 | New | 13F |
| Shannon River Fund Management LLC | $5.8 Mil | 1.1% | 28 | New | 13F |
| Proem Advisors LLC | $15.3 Mil | 5.1% | 29 | ADD +1440.0% | 13F |
| Panview Capital Ltd | $87.4 Mil | 18.7% | 12 | ADD +133.8% | 13F |
| Lone Pine Capital LLC | $583.0 Mil | 4.6% | 36 | ADD +87.7% | 13F |
| Blue Whale Capital LLP | $59.3 Mil | 2.8% | 26 | ADD +43.5% | 13F |
| Spyglass Capital Management LLC | $66.3 Mil | 4.7% | 25 | ADD +38.1% | 13F |
| Selkirk Management LLC | $19.4 Mil | 6.6% | 11 | ADD +36.4% | 13F |
| No Street GP LP | $72.0 Mil | 4.8% | 31 | ADD +27.9% | 13F |
| Keenan Capital, LLC | $76.1 Mil | 16.1% | 9 | ADD +8.2% | 13F |
| WT Asset Management Ltd | $32.3 Mil | 0.7% | 32 | ADD +7.7% | 13F |
| Kensico Capital Management Corp | $1.3 Bil | 26.7% | 20 | ADD +5.3% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ieq Capital, LLC | $10.6 Bil | 31.6% | 2233 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Durable Capital Partners LP | $110.1 Mil | 1.0% | 40 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Broad Bay Capital Management, LP | $67.5 Mil | 7.7% | 28 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| FengHe Fund Management Pte. Ltd. | $63.3 Mil | 3.6% | 38 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| MGB Wealth Management, LLC | $54.5 Mil | 15.6% | 308 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Alta Park Capital, LP | $35.2 Mil | 4.2% | 34 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Science & Technology Partners, L.P. | $30.2 Mil | 8.4% | 24 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Nishkama Capital, LLC | $24.3 Mil | 3.3% | 49 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Ogborne Capital Management, LLC | $20.2 Mil | 6.7% | 11 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Thames Capital Management LLC | $12.6 Mil | 1.8% | 48 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Insight Holdings Group, LLC | $8.3 Mil | 0.6% | 30 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| VMS Asset Management Limited | $6.7 Mil | 2.6% | 42 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Castle Hook Partners LP | $6.0 Mil | 0.1% | 44 | TRIM -96.2% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Ratan Capital Management LP | $7.2 Mil | 2.7% | 37 | TRIM -57.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Kinetic Partners Management, LP | $22.2 Mil | 1.2% | 49 | TRIM -37.4% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Dorsal Capital Management, LP | $29.9 Mil | 1.2% | 25 | TRIM -25.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| KCM Capital Inc | $15.9 Mil | 3.0% | 31 | TRIM -20.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Jericho Capital Asset Management L.P. | $667.5 Mil | 9.9% | 23 | TRIM -20.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Fernbridge Capital Management LP | $13.8 Mil | 0.9% | 17 | TRIM -18.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Whale Rock Capital Management LLC | $276.8 Mil | 3.6% | 35 | TRIM -14.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kensico Capital Management Corp | $1.3 Bil | 26.7% | 20 | ADD +5.3% | 13F |
| Spruce House Investment Management LLC | $712.4 Mil | 25.4% | 11 | Hold | 13F |
| Jericho Capital Asset Management L.P. | $667.5 Mil | 9.9% | 23 | TRIM -20.0% | 13F |
| Lone Pine Capital LLC | $583.0 Mil | 4.6% | 36 | ADD +87.7% | 13F |
| Whale Rock Capital Management LLC | $276.8 Mil | 3.6% | 35 | TRIM -14.0% | 13F |
| D1 Capital Partners L.P. | $266.4 Mil | 2.4% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Dorsey Asset Management, LLC | $126.1 Mil | 10.0% | 11 | New | 13F |
| Augustine Asset Management Inc | $106.3 Mil | 23.9% | 112 | Hold | 13F |
| Panview Capital Ltd | $87.4 Mil | 18.7% | 12 | ADD +133.8% | 13F |
| Greenstone Partners & Co., LLC | $77.7 Mil | 19.7% | 9 | Hold | 13F |
| Keenan Capital, LLC | $76.1 Mil | 16.1% | 9 | ADD +8.2% | 13F |
| No Street GP LP | $72.0 Mil | 4.8% | 31 | ADD +27.9% | 13F |
| Spyglass Capital Management LLC | $66.3 Mil | 4.7% | 25 | ADD +38.1% | 13F |
| Blue Whale Capital LLP | $59.3 Mil | 2.8% | 26 | ADD +43.5% | 13F |
| Palestra Capital Management LLC | $50.1 Mil | 2.0% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| Infinitum Asset Management, LLC | $39.8 Mil | 5.0% | 21 | New | 13F |
| 3G Capital Partners LP | $37.8 Mil | 13.4% | 10 | Hold | 13F |
| WT Asset Management Ltd | $32.3 Mil | 0.7% | 32 | ADD +7.7% | 13F |
| Dorsal Capital Management, LP | $29.9 Mil | 1.2% | 25 | TRIM -25.0% | 13F |
| Kinetic Partners Management, LP | $22.2 Mil | 1.2% | 49 | TRIM -37.4% | 13F |
| Selkirk Management LLC | $19.4 Mil | 6.6% | 11 | ADD +36.4% | 13F |
| KCM Capital Inc | $15.9 Mil | 3.0% | 31 | TRIM -20.0% | 13F |
| Proem Advisors LLC | $15.3 Mil | 5.1% | 29 | ADD +1440.0% | 13F |
| Fernbridge Capital Management LP | $13.8 Mil | 0.9% | 17 | TRIM -18.0% | 13F |
| UNICOM Systems, Inc. | $12.7 Mil | 1.3% | 32 | Hold | 13F |
APP Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is constructive based on the powerful re-acceleration in Q3 revenue growth to 55.5%, driven by a new AI model rollout. This performance was validated by a significant raise to Q4 guidance. The expansion into new verticals is showing strong results, with consumer advertiser spend growing at a triple-digit rate year-over-year, providing a second major growth engine.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Transactional / Performance Marketing(Ad Impressions Processed) x (AI Model Conversion Rate) x (Effective Price per Successful Outcome) The predictive accuracy of the Axon AI engine, which determines the spread between revenue earned per successful outcome and the cost of the underlying media impressions.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence points to a durable technological advantage, with a new AI model driving a record Q3 and a strong Q4 outlook.
- Q3 revenue growth re-accelerated to 55.5% year-over-year.
- Q4 revenue guidance was raised, implying over 50% full-year growth.
- The consumer vertical is growing triple digits year-over-year.
- The core gaming business grew nearly 50% year-over-year.
- Adjusted EBITDA margin reached 84% in Q3 2026.
PRIMARY RISK
The Q2 2026 guidance miss serves as a reminder that model rollouts are complex, and intense competition from peers like Unity could quickly erode AppLovin's performance edge.
- The company missed its own guidance in Q2 2026.
- Peer Unity Software's 'Vector' ad product grew 126% YoY.
- Management confirmed the transition to new AI models is incomplete.
- A securities lawsuit alleges misleading statements on AI progress.
- Clients do not have long-term commitments with the company.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Latest-Quarter Revenue Growth | 55.5% year-over-year for the quarter ended 9/30/2026 - Accelerating | After a dip in Q2, year-over-year growth re-accelerated in Q3. Sequential growth also accelerated significantly from the prior quarter, which management attributed to the rollout of a new generation of its AI models that boosted advertiser performance and budgets. |
| Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 84% for the quarter ended 9/30/2026 - Stable | Margins remain stable at exceptionally high levels, demonstrating significant operating leverage where expenses grow much slower than revenue. The company continues to invest in model training while maintaining best-in-class profitability. |
Q3 Rebound: Durable Inflection or One-Time Catch-Up?
BULL VIEW
Bulls see the record Q3 and raised Q4 guidance as proof the new AI model provides a sustainable performance leap, driving continued market share gains from rivals.
CORE TENSION
Can the 55.5% YoY growth from the new AI model offset the risk of execution stumbles, like the Q2 miss that caused a -20% stock drop?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bulls. The company's 15.0% upward revision to its Q4 revenue guidance suggests the new momentum is continuing, not fading.
BEAR VIEW
Bears argue the Q3 strength was a temporary rebound from the Q2 model delay, and that intense competition will prevent this level of outperformance from continuing.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
November 16, 2026 | Lawsuit Headline Risk Watch: News flow around the lead plaintiff deadline and any subsequent filings or judicial orders in the case. |
November 16, 2026 | Securities Lawsuit Deadline Watch: Deadline for lead plaintiff in securities fraud class action lawsuit. |
Q4 2026 | Fourth Quarter Guidance Period Watch: Company provides guidance for Q4 2026 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA. |
1/26/2027 - 2/23/2027 | Ad-Tech Sector Slowdown Watch: Revenue growth and forward guidance from key ad-tech peers, particularly commentary on advertiser demand and ROAS. |
2/1/2027 | Digital Turbine Earnings Watch: Peer Digital Turbine (APPS) scheduled to report earnings. |
2/9/2027 | Model Transition Stumbles Watch: Management commentary on the completion status of the model transition and its impact on gaming and consumer vertical growth. |
2/23/2027 | Trade Desk and Magnite Earnings Watch: Peers Trade Desk (TTD) and Magnite (MGNI) scheduled to report earnings. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-11-04 | Q4 Guidance Raised Details: On November 4, 2026, the company issued new, higher guidance for Q4 2026 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA, representing changes of 15.0% and 16.5% respectively. | +45.0% $245.51 -> $356.10 |
2026-11-04 | Record Q3 Earnings Beat Details: On November 4, 2026, the company reported record Q3 revenue of $2.18 billion, up 55% year-over-year, beating guidance. The stock had a two-day reaction of 45.0%. | +45.0% $245.51 -> $356.10 |
2026-10-07 | Q3 Earnings Date Announced Details: On October 7, 2026, the company announced it would report Q3 2026 financial results on November 4, 2026. | +0.5% $278.78 -> $280.12 |
2026-08-05 | Q2 Earnings Miss Details: On August 5, 2026, the company reported Q2 results that were "just below the midpoint of our guidance range." The stock had a two-day reaction of -20.0%. | -20.0% $419.70 -> $335.67 |
Securities Lawsuits Filed Details: Following the Q2 miss, multiple press reports in September announced the filing of a securities fraud class action lawsuit for the period ending August 5, 2026. | - | |
Bullish Analyst Commentary Details: Press reports in May cited bullish support, with one analyst note upgrading the stock to Strong Buy and another setting a $1,100 price target in June. | - |
Position Sizing
2% - 4%
REDUCED POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: APP trades at roughly 54% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 10% for the S&P 500 (5.2x the market). A 2% - 4% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
META - Meta Platforms
Scale & Infrastructure LeaderMeta offers exposure to a much larger, more diversified advertising base and possesses a massive advantage in owned compute infrastructure, with capital expenditures of $104.4 billion.
U - Unity Software
Integrated Creator PlatformUnity provides an end-to-end solution for game developers, integrating its game engine with a rapidly growing ad platform, creating high switching costs for creators.
An AI-driven performance marketing engine whose revenue and growth are a direct function of its model's predictive accuracy and ability to deliver advertiser ROI.
AppLovin operates a technology-driven flywheel where improvements to its Axon AI engine deliver better advertiser returns, which attracts more ad spend. This increased activity provides more data, further enhancing the AI models. After establishing dominance in mobile gaming, the company is now applying this flywheel to new, large verticals like e-commerce and CTV, creating significant new growth runways.
Continued outperformance driven by new AI model rollouts, sustained triple-digit growth in the 'consumer' vertical, and expansion of ad supply from previously non-monetized sources like IAP-only games.
Evidence of competitors' AI models delivering superior ROI, a slowdown in the consumer vertical expansion, or adverse policy changes from platform owners like Apple or Google that degrade data inputs for the AI models.
Short-term stock price volatility and market sentiment, which the CEO has addressed as being disconnected from the company's strong operating performance.
Repricing Catalyst
The partial rollout of a next-generation AI model architecture, which has already led to re-accelerated revenue growth in the most recent quarter and is expected to provide more room for future optimization.
End-to-end advertising solutions through Axon Ads Manager, MAX, Adjust, and Wurl
$6.8B TTM (100% of Total)What It Is
A suite of AI-powered tools for advertisers and publishers. This includes Axon Ads Manager for user acquisition, MAX for in-app ad monetization, Adjust for marketing analytics, and Wurl for CTV advertising and content distribution.
Who Pays & How
Advertisers, from large enterprises to small businesses, pay to acquire users and achieve their marketing goals. They use the platform because its AI engine (Axon) can effectively target users to meet specific return on ad spend (ROAS) targets.
Competition
AppLovin — Investor Video Playlist
External Quote Links
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| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
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