Exxon Mobil (XOM)
Market Price (11/5/2026): $169.3 | Market Cap: $690.6 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Energy | Industry: Integrated Oil & Gas
Exxon Mobil (XOM)
Market Price (11/5/2026): $169.3Market Cap: $690.6 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Integrated Oil & Gas
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.3%, Dividend Yield is 2.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.0%, FCF Yield is 6.1% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 71 Bil, FCF LTM is 43 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 60 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Hydrogen Economy, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -5.2% | Key risksXOM key risks include [1] growing regulatory, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.3%, Dividend Yield is 2.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.0%, FCF Yield is 6.1% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 71 Bil, FCF LTM is 43 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 60 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Hydrogen Economy, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -5.2% |
| Key risksXOM key risks include [1] growing regulatory, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Exxon Mobil (XOM) stock has gained about 10% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Exxon Mobil reported a robust earnings beat for fiscal Q3 2026, primarily fueled by strong refining profitability.
The company announced adjusted earnings of $4.23 per share on October 30, 2026, surpassing the consensus estimate of $3.98 by 6.3%. Revenue reached $113.2 billion, exceeding expectations by 8.78%. This strong performance was largely driven by its Energy Products segment, which saw higher refining margins and 100% crude unit utilization at U.S. Gulf Coast refineries.
2. The company demonstrated a strong commitment to shareholder returns and significantly strengthened its balance sheet.
Exxon Mobil distributed $9.4 billion to shareholders in fiscal Q3 2026, comprising $4.3 billion in dividends and $5.1 billion in share repurchases. Management also announced a $20 billion share repurchase target for 2027 and a Q4 2026 dividend of $1.07 per share. Concurrently, the company reduced its net debt by nearly $11 billion year-to-date, including over $9 billion in fiscal Q3 2026, lowering its net debt-to-capital ratio to an industry-leading 7.5%.
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Exxon Mobil (XOM) stock has gained about 10% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Exxon Mobil reported a robust earnings beat for fiscal Q3 2026, primarily fueled by strong refining profitability.
The company announced adjusted earnings of $4.23 per share on October 30, 2026, surpassing the consensus estimate of $3.98 by 6.3%. Revenue reached $113.2 billion, exceeding expectations by 8.78%. This strong performance was largely driven by its Energy Products segment, which saw higher refining margins and 100% crude unit utilization at U.S. Gulf Coast refineries.
2. The company demonstrated a strong commitment to shareholder returns and significantly strengthened its balance sheet.
Exxon Mobil distributed $9.4 billion to shareholders in fiscal Q3 2026, comprising $4.3 billion in dividends and $5.1 billion in share repurchases. Management also announced a $20 billion share repurchase target for 2027 and a Q4 2026 dividend of $1.07 per share. Concurrently, the company reduced its net debt by nearly $11 billion year-to-date, including over $9 billion in fiscal Q3 2026, lowering its net debt-to-capital ratio to an industry-leading 7.5%.
3. Sustained elevated oil prices and favorable refining margins provided a strong macroeconomic tailwind.
During the period, crude oil prices remained elevated, with Brent crude forecasts generally above $90 for the remainder of 2026, and Q4 2026 estimates clustering around $100-$107 per barrel. Exceptional industry conditions, including record refining margins driven by reduced global capacity and ongoing Middle East supply disruptions, also contributed significantly to the company's profitability.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 9.6% change in XOM stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 34.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 154.44 | 169.27 | 9.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 326,008 | 388,232 | 19.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.8% | 10.5% | 34.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 25.6 | 17.3 | -32.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,202 | 4,140 | 1.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 9.6% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| XOM | 9.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.6% | -48.7% |
| Sector (XLE) | 6.7% | 91.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 11.1% change in XOM stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 19.9% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 152.30 | 169.27 | 11.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 323,905 | 388,232 | 19.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.9% | 10.5% | 17.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 22.4 | 17.3 | -22.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,236 | 4,140 | 2.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 11.1% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| XOM | 11.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.0% | -46.3% |
| Sector (XLE) | 7.3% | 91.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 52.3% change in XOM stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 17.9% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 111.14 | 169.27 | 52.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 329,385 | 388,232 | 17.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.4% | 10.5% | 11.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.5 | 17.3 | 11.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,331 | 4,140 | 4.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 52.3% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| XOM | 52.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.4% | -35.4% |
| Sector (XLE) | 47.4% | 91.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 76.5% change in XOM stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 83.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 95.92 | 169.27 | 76.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 346,173 | 388,232 | 12.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.9% | 10.5% | -11.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 9.4 | 17.3 | 83.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,025 | 4,140 | -2.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 76.5% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| XOM | 76.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 89.7% | 10.6% |
| Sector (XLE) | 63.0% | 90.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| XOM Return | 58% | 87% | -6% | 11% | 16% | 43% | 413% |
| Peers Return | 60% | 83% | 4% | -7% | 10% | 82% | 468% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 102% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| XOM Win Rate | 75% | 67% | 42% | 58% | 67% | 64% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 65% | 53% | 45% | 65% | 67% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 36% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| XOM Max Drawdown | -17% | -21% | -18% | -15% | -16% | -20% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -23% | -29% | -23% | -30% | -25% | -22% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CVX, COP, OXY, MPC, VLO. See XOM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/4/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | XOM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -15.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.0% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 38 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -47.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 91.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 338 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1114 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -12.8% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.6% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 43 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -28.7% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.2% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 311 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -19.6% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.4% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 134 days | 123 days |
In The Past
Exxon Mobil's stock fell -9.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 10.4% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | XOM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -47.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 91.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 338 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1114 days | 105 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -28.7% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.2% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 311 days | 15 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -33.3% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.0% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1190 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Exxon Mobil's stock fell -9.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 10.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Exxon Mobil (XOM)
Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) is a prominent global energy and petrochemical company. Its primary activities revolve around the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas across the United States and internationally. These raw materials are fundamental to its business, forming the basis of a wide range of energy and chemical products.
The company processes these raw materials within its integrated operations, manufacturing and selling various petroleum products like gasoline, diesel, and lubricants, as well as petrochemicals such as olefins and polyolefins. Beyond traditional fossil fuels, Exxon Mobil is also engaged in developing and deploying lower-carbon solutions, including carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, and biofuels. The company serves a diverse global market, supplying essential energy and chemical products to consumers, industrial customers, and various other businesses worldwide.
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1. General Motors of energy.
2. Caterpillar for fossil fuels.
3. Amazon for the world's fuel and chemical needs.
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- Crude Oil and Natural Gas: Exxon Mobil explores for, produces, and sells crude oil and natural gas.
- Petroleum Products: The company manufactures, trades, transports, and sells refined petroleum products like gasoline, diesel, and lubricants.
- Petrochemicals: Exxon Mobil produces and sells a variety of petrochemicals, including olefins, polyolefins, and aromatics.
- Carbon Capture and Storage: The company provides services for capturing and storing carbon dioxide.
- Hydrogen and Biofuels: Exxon Mobil is involved in the production and sale of hydrogen and biofuels.
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Darren W. Woods, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Darren W. Woods is a career veteran of ExxonMobil, having joined Exxon Company International in 1992 as a planning analyst in Florham Park, New Jersey. He progressed through a variety of domestic and international assignments for Exxon Company International, ExxonMobil Chemical Company, and ExxonMobil Refining and Supply Company. Woods served as vice president of ExxonMobil Chemical Company, managing global specialty-chemical businesses, and later as director of refining for Europe, Africa, and the Middle East for ExxonMobil Refining and Supply Company. He was appointed president of ExxonMobil Refining and Supply Company and vice president of Exxon Mobil Corporation in 2012, and then elected senior vice president in 2014. Effective January 1, 2016, Woods was elected president of Exxon Mobil Corporation and a member of the board of directors, and on January 1, 2017, he was elected Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. Mr. Woods earned a Bachelor of Science degree in electrical engineering from Texas A&M University and a Master of Business Administration from Northwestern's Kellogg School of Management. He has not founded or managed other companies, sold companies, or managed companies backed by private equity firms.
Neil A. Hansen, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Neil A. Hansen assumed the role of Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Exxon Mobil Corporation effective February 1, 2026. Prior to this, he served as President of ExxonMobil Global Business Solutions from May 2025. His earlier roles include Senior Vice President, Energy Products for ExxonMobil Product Solutions Company from April 2022 to May 2025, and Vice President, Europe, Africa & Middle East Fuels from March 2020 to April 2022. Mr. Hansen has also held several senior finance positions within the corporation's Controllers, Audit, Treasurers, and Investor Relations departments, including Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Secretary from 2018 to 2020. He joined ExxonMobil in 2000 as a Financial Analyst in Exploration. Mr. Hansen received his MBA in Finance from the Thunderbird School of Global Management and is a graduate of the University of St. Thomas. He has not founded or managed other companies, sold companies, or managed companies backed by private equity firms.
Neil A. Chapman, Senior Vice President
Neil A. Chapman joined the Exxon Mobil Corporation Management Committee as Senior Vice President in 2018. He began his career with Esso Chemical Company in 1984 in the United Kingdom, progressing through various engineering, operations, planning, and commercial roles in chemical affiliates across the United Kingdom, Belgium, the United States, and Hong Kong. Following the Exxon and Mobil merger, he served as ExxonMobil Chemical Company's Asia Pacific polyolefins sales manager and was the project executive for the Fujian integrated refining and ethylene joint venture project in China. His experience also includes roles in aviation fuels marketing, industrial and wholesale fuels, and as vice president of ExxonMobil Chemical Company's global polyethylene business. He served as executive assistant to the chairman of Exxon Mobil Corporation and later as president of ExxonMobil Global Services Company. Mr. Chapman was appointed Senior Vice President for global polymers businesses in ExxonMobil Chemical Company in 2011 and became President of ExxonMobil Chemical Company in 2015. He holds a Bachelor of Science degree in chemical engineering from the University of Surrey, England.
Jack P. Williams, Senior Vice President
Jack P. Williams was elected Senior Vice President of Exxon Mobil Corporation in 2014. Before taking on his current position, he served as executive vice president of ExxonMobil Production Company. From 2010 to 2013, Mr. Williams was president of XTO Energy Inc., which ExxonMobil acquired in 2010. His career at Exxon began in April 1987 as a drilling engineer in New Orleans, Louisiana. He held various technical, supervisory, and planning positions, including two years in the U.S. upstream planning organization, operations superintendent for East Texas field areas, and operations manager for Gulf Coast and offshore California properties. He also oversaw the company's North Slope and Cook Inlet interests in Alaska and served as deputy production manager for South China Sea operations in Malaysia. Mr. Williams is a graduate of Vanderbilt University with a Bachelor of Engineering degree.
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Climate Change and Energy Transition Risks
Exxon Mobil faces significant and growing risks associated with climate change and the global energy transition. This includes increasing regulatory and environmental pressures, such as stringent climate policies and carbon emissions regulations, which can impact operations and profitability, requiring substantial investments for compliance. Shareholders have consistently pressed the company for clearer disclosures on climate-change financial risks, particularly concerning the impact of global climate agreements like the Paris Agreement on its reserves and financial profile. The long-term reliance on fossil fuels also exposes Exxon Mobil to risks as the world shifts towards lower-carbon energy sources, leading to potential stranded assets and heightened climate-related liabilities. Furthermore, the company has faced scrutiny for historically downplaying climate science, despite its own scientists accurately predicting global warming, which poses reputational and litigation risks. The potential threat by Exxon Mobil to exit the European market due to strict sustainability regulations, such as the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD), further underscores the regulatory challenges it faces.
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Commodity Price Volatility
As a major explorer and producer of crude oil and natural gas, Exxon Mobil's financial performance is highly susceptible to the volatility of commodity prices. Fluctuations in the prices of crude oil, natural gas, and petrochemicals can significantly impact the company's revenue, earnings, cash flow, and capital spending plans. Economic downturns, geopolitical tensions, and imbalances between global supply and demand are key drivers of this market volatility. The company's strong cash flow generation is heavily dependent on sustained high oil and gas prices, and a prolonged decline in these prices would significantly erode its operating cash flow.
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Geopolitical Risks
Exxon Mobil's extensive international operations expose it to various geopolitical risks that can disrupt its business. These risks include political instability, conflicts, and regional tensions, particularly in critical energy-producing and transit regions like the Persian Gulf. Events such as the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for global oil flows, could lead to operational disruptions and sharp spikes in crude prices, impacting global supply chains and the cost of operations. Such unforeseen events and supply disruptions can have an unpredictable and substantial effect on Exxon Mobil's facilities, production, and overall market dynamics.
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The accelerating global energy transition, driven by advancements in renewable energy technologies, electric vehicle adoption, and increasing governmental and societal pressure for decarbonization, poses a clear emerging threat. This trend directly challenges the long-term demand for crude oil and natural gas, which constitute the vast majority of Exxon Mobil's core business operations across its Upstream, Downstream, and Chemical segments. As alternative energy sources become more prevalent and cost-competitive, and as regulations favor lower-carbon solutions, the market for traditional fossil fuels faces a sustained and systemic decline.
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Exxon Mobil (XOM) operates in several large addressable markets for its main products and services. The market sizes for these key areas, primarily on a global scale, are outlined below:
- Crude Oil: The global crude oil market size was valued at approximately USD 3.05 trillion in 2025.
- Natural Gas: The global natural gas market was valued at approximately USD 1.48 trillion in 2025, and is projected to grow.
- Petroleum Products (Refined Products): The global refined petroleum products market is estimated to be USD 1.17 trillion in 2025.
- Petrochemicals: The global petrochemical market size was estimated at approximately USD 700.53 billion in 2025.
- Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS): The global carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technologies market was valued at approximately USD 4.57 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 68.92 billion by 2034.
- Hydrogen: The global hydrogen market size was valued at approximately USD 229.53 billion in 2025. For green hydrogen specifically, the market size was USD 12.31 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase significantly.
- Biofuels: The global biofuels market is projected to be valued at approximately USD 178.34 billion in 2025.
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Exxon Mobil (XOM) is anticipated to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key strategies:
- Increased Upstream Production from Key Basins and LNG Projects: Exxon Mobil projects significant growth in its upstream production, particularly from advantaged assets such as the Permian Basin in the U.S., Guyana's Stabroek Block, and various Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) projects globally. The company expects these high-return, low-cost-of-supply assets to constitute a substantial portion of its total production by 2030, with upstream production targeted to reach approximately 5.5 million oil-equivalent barrels per day by that time. Permian production alone is projected to exceed 2.5 million oil-equivalent barrels per day beyond 2030. This growth is bolstered by strategic acquisitions, such as Pioneer Natural Resources, which are expected to generate significant synergies and boost production capacity.
- Expansion into High-Value Products within Product Solutions: The company is accelerating its shift towards a more profitable product mix within its Product Solutions segment, which encompasses its downstream and chemical operations. This strategy involves increasing the production and sale of high-value products, including performance chemicals, lower-emission fuels, and high-value lubricants, targeting substantial earnings growth by 2030. Exxon Mobil aims to transform lower-value molecules into higher-value products through strategic investments and proprietary technology deployment.
- Growth of Low Carbon Solutions Business: Exxon Mobil is making substantial investments in its Low Carbon Solutions business, targeting areas such as carbon capture and storage (CCS), hydrogen production, and lithium supply for batteries. The company plans to pursue up to $30 billion in lower-emission investment opportunities between 2025 and 2030, with a significant portion directed towards reducing emissions for third-party customers. This segment is expected to contribute new revenue streams and generate considerable earnings by 2030 and beyond, driven by supportive government policies and market interest.
- Technological Advancements and Operational Efficiencies: The deployment of advanced technologies is a key driver for enhancing production and optimizing value across Exxon Mobil's operations. Examples include the use of lightweight proppant in Permian Basin wells, which has demonstrated increased recovery, and the scaling of proprietary Proxxima™ systems for various industrial applications. These technological advancements, coupled with ongoing structural cost savings, contribute to higher output from existing assets and improved overall profitability, indirectly boosting revenue by maximizing resource utilization and product realization.
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Share Repurchases
- Exxon Mobil repurchased $17.748 billion in shares in 2023, $19.629 billion in 2024, and $20.273 billion in 2025.
- The company is on track to repurchase $20 billion of its shares in 2025 and plans to maintain this pace through 2026.
- Share repurchases were $154 million in 2021 and $4.675 billion in 2022.
Outbound Investments
- Exxon Mobil announced a $59.5 billion all-stock deal to acquire Pioneer Natural Resources in October 2023, valued at $64.5 billion including net debt. This acquisition is expected to fortify domestic production in the Permian Basin.
- The company intends to divest approximately $25 billion of hydrocarbon assets through 2025 to focus on more profitable projects, with asset sales occurring in Asia, Africa, and Europe.
- ExxonMobil made a $100 million investment in the chip industry in 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- Exxon Mobil's capital expenditures were $18.407 billion in 2022, $21.919 billion in 2023, $24.306 billion in 2024, and $28.358 billion in 2025.
- The company expects cash capital expenditures to be $27-$29 billion in 2026.
- Capital expenditures are primarily focused on increasing oil and gas production in the Permian Basin, deepwater production offshore Guyana and Brazil, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) production in Papua New Guinea and Mozambique.
Peer Outperformance in Integrated Oil & Gas
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM | Exxon Mobil | 4.4% | 17.3x | 52.6% | 73.3% | 213.1% | — |
| IMO | Imperial Oil | 4.0% | 10.0x | 47.5% | 138.6% | 336.2% | +123pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing | 11 | 73.8% | 109.7% | 304.9% | MPC 590% · PBF 482% · VLO 459% |
| Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation | 18 | 42.6% | 106.1% | 175.5% | INSW 798% · LPG 705% · TRGP 467% |
| Integrated Oil & Gas ← | 7 | 47.2% | 66.6% | 163.7% | IMO 336% · SU 245% · XOM 213% |
| Oil & Gas Equipment & Services | 33 | 11.8% | 17.8% | 71.7% | FTI 792% · SEI 713% · TDW 511% |
| Oil & Gas Drilling | 7 | 46.7% | -2.9% | 49.3% | VAL 138% · NE 93% · RIG 49% |
| Oil & Gas Exploration & Production | 51 | 30.0% | -1.7% | 44.1% | BTE 812% · PR 247% · CNQ 201% |
| Coal & Consumable Fuels | 14 | -41.5% | -2.0% | 26.5% | CNR 278% · CCJ 167% · BTU 58% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 193.36 |
| Mkt Cap | 137.6 |
| Rev LTM | 164,064 |
| Op Inc LTM | 18,716 |
| FCF LTM | 17,960 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 9,455 |
| CFO LTM | 23,587 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 17,096 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 15.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 47.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 11.1% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 50.9% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 0.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 3.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 19.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 12.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 137.6 |
| P/S | 1.9 |
| P/Op Inc | 10.8 |
| P/EBIT | 9.8 |
| P/E | 12.6 |
| P/CFO | 7.0 |
| Total Yield | 11.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 8.8% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 18.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 18.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 56.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 70.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 18.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 15.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 45.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -9.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy Products | 290,317 | 310,516 | 320,122 | 371,872 | 250,738 |
| Upstream | 101,795 | 103,573 | 85,527 | 116,898 | 71,894 |
| Chemical Products | 32,310 | 34,118 | 33,899 | 41,901 | 38,703 |
| Specialty Products | 20,403 | 21,288 | 21,532 | 23,291 | 20,273 |
| Intersegment revenue | -155,323 | -105,173 | |||
| Corporate and Financing | 257 | ||||
| Total | 444,825 | 469,495 | 461,080 | 398,639 | 276,692 |
| $ Mil | 1999 | 1997 | 1996 | 1995 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exploration and Production | 5,886 | |||
| Chemical | 1,354 | 2,078 | 1,199 | 2,734 |
| Refining and Marketing | 1,227 | |||
| Other Operations | -557 | |||
| Petroleum | 9,675 | 8,717 | 6,654 | |
| Total | 7,910 | 11,753 | 9,916 | 9,388 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upstream | 21,354 | 25,390 | 21,308 | 36,479 | 15,775 |
| Energy Products | 7,423 | 4,033 | 12,142 | 14,966 | -346 |
| Specialty Products | 2,857 | 3,052 | 2,714 | 2,415 | 3,259 |
| Chemical Products | 800 | 2,577 | 1,637 | 3,543 | 6,989 |
| Corporate and Financing | -1,663 | -2,636 | |||
| Total | 32,434 | 35,052 | 37,801 | 55,740 | 23,041 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upstream | 287,571 | 289,523 | 206,366 | 206,459 | 209,272 |
| Energy Products | 79,917 | 75,542 | 74,460 | 73,565 | 64,630 |
| Chemical Products | 35,356 | 35,137 | 34,675 | 33,217 | 31,250 |
| Corporate and Financing | 35,155 | 42,351 | 49,817 | 44,671 | 22,863 |
| Specialty Products | 10,981 | 10,922 | 10,999 | 11,155 | 10,908 |
| Total | 448,980 | 453,475 | 376,317 | 369,067 | 338,923 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $169.27 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 700.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/02/1970 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -9.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $168.49 | $154.11 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 0.5% | 9.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 27.2% | 27.0% |
| Downside Capture | -165.66 | -118.18 |
| Upside Capture | -89.89 | -46.13 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | -42.7% | -33.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -1.05 | -1.10 | -1.10 | -1.01 | -0.72 | 0.17 |
| Up Beta | 0.06 | -1.54 | -0.43 | -1.26 | -0.92 | 0.27 |
| Down Beta | -0.33 | -1.03 | -0.73 | -0.43 | -0.04 | 0.61 |
| Up Capture | -19% | -51% | -72% | -55% | -26% | 0% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 16 | 28 | 37 | 71 | 142 | 403 |
| Down Capture | -249% | -198% | -267% | -240% | -304% | -94% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 6 | 15 | 27 | 55 | 108 | 346 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with XOM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM | 53.4% | 27.0% | 1.55 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 47.6% | 23.2% | 1.60 | 91.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.2% | 12.9% | 0.68 | -35.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 1.0% | 28.8% | 0.03 | -7.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 35.9% | 21.2% | 1.34 | 61.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.3% | 14.1% | 0.70 | -14.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -28.2% | 43.4% | -0.65 | -9.5% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with XOM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM | 25.8% | 26.6% | 0.85 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 21.3% | 25.6% | 0.73 | 92.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.5% | 17.2% | 0.55 | 23.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.3% | 19.1% | 0.73 | 7.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.0% | 19.6% | 0.29 | 61.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.8% | 18.9% | -0.01 | 21.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.5% | 51.5% | 0.29 | 7.9% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with XOM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM | 11.6% | 28.5% | 0.43 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 10.5% | 29.6% | 0.39 | 92.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 46.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.9% | 16.5% | 0.59 | 3.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.4% | 18.1% | 0.33 | 58.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 38.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 61.0% | 66.2% | 1.01 | 10.7% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 11/4/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/30/2026 | 2.2% | ||
| 7/31/2026 | -1.0% | -1.4% | 0.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Median Positive | 2.2% | 0.5% | |
| Median Negative | -1.0% | -1.4% | |
| Max Positive | 2.2% | 0.5% | |
| Max Negative | -1.0% | -1.4% | |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/30/2026 | 2.2% | ||
| 7/31/2026 | -1.0% | -1.4% | 0.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Median Positive | 2.2% | 0.5% | |
| Median Negative | -1.0% | -1.4% | |
| Max Positive | 2.2% | 0.5% | |
| Max Negative | -1.0% | -1.4% | |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/02/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/03/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/03/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/02/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/03/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/03/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/23/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/24/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/04/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/26/2020 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 10/31/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 10/30/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 Dividends Per Share | Reported | 1.07 | 3.9% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.03 for Q3 2026 | |||
| 2027 Share Repurchases | Reported | 20.00 Bil | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 7/1/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 3172026 | 155.50 | 1,080 | 167,935 | 2,662,696 | Form |
| 2 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 3032026 | 157.82 | 2,150 | 339,313 | 2,872,957 | Form |
| 3 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 2092026 | 149.18 | 3,230 | 481,835 | 3,036,308 | Form |
| 4 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 2032026 | 139.75 | 5,000 | 698,753 | 3,295,879 | Form |
| 5 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 12182025 | 117.19 | 3,000 | 351,570 | 3,349,759 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 3172026 | 155.50 | 1,080 | 167,935 | 2,662,696 | Form |
| 2 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 3032026 | 157.82 | 2,150 | 339,313 | 2,872,957 | Form |
| 3 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 2092026 | 149.18 | 3,230 | 481,835 | 3,036,308 | Form |
| 4 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 2032026 | 139.75 | 5,000 | 698,753 | 3,295,879 | Form |
| 5 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 12182025 | 117.19 | 3,000 | 351,570 | 3,349,759 | Form |
| 6 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 12152025 | 118.75 | 3,000 | 356,250 | 3,750,600 | Form |
| 7 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 8252025 | 110.45 | 2,158 | 238,351 | 1,527,414 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 5, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doliver Advisors, LP | $178.7 Mil | 40.6% | 180 | Hold | 13F |
| Adams Natural Resources Fund, Inc. | $226.4 Mil | 26.2% | 54 | Hold | 13F |
| Miller Wealth Advisors, LLC | $49.5 Mil | 19.0% | 117 | Hold | 13F |
| Sunbelt Securities, Inc. | $229.3 Mil | 14.5% | 2954 | Hold | 13F |
| Solus Alternative Asset Management LP | $34.8 Mil | 9.4% | 10 | TRIM -32.8% | 13F |
| California First Leasing Corp | $27.3 Mil | 8.7% | 39 | Hold | 13F |
| Hatch Cove Capital, LLC | $20.0 Mil | 7.6% | 19 | ADD +153.5% | 13F |
| Warther Private Wealth, LLC | $29.7 Mil | 7.0% | 40 | ADD +144.7% | 13F |
| Randolph Co Inc | $45.7 Mil | 4.4% | 43 | Hold | 13F |
| Schwerin Boyle Capital Management Inc | $34.1 Mil | 4.3% | 47 | TRIM -6.7% | 13F |
| Westchester Capital Management, Inc. | $20.5 Mil | 4.1% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| RWWM, Inc. | $54.5 Mil | 4.0% | 34 | TRIM -18.7% | 13F |
| ADAPT Investment Managers SA | $10.0 Mil | 3.4% | 34 | New | 13F |
| Castle Hook Partners LP | $147.6 Mil | 3.0% | 44 | New | 13F |
| Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | $18.4 Mil | 2.9% | 41 | Hold | 13F |
| TB Alternative Assets Ltd. | $13.5 Mil | 2.8% | 36 | New | 13F |
| Allen Operations LLC | $15.3 Mil | 2.3% | 36 | Hold | 13F |
| Keystone Financial Planning, Inc. | $8.3 Mil | 2.2% | 40 | Hold | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castle Hook Partners LP | $147.6 Mil | 3.0% | 44 | New | 13F |
| TB Alternative Assets Ltd. | $13.5 Mil | 2.8% | 36 | New | 13F |
| ADAPT Investment Managers SA | $10.0 Mil | 3.4% | 34 | New | 13F |
| Hatch Cove Capital, LLC | $20.0 Mil | 7.6% | 19 | ADD +153.5% | 13F |
| Warther Private Wealth, LLC | $29.7 Mil | 7.0% | 40 | ADD +144.7% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drummond Knight Asset Management Pty Ltd | $25.9 Mil | 7.2% | 11 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Holowesko Partners Ltd. | $25.2 Mil | 8.8% | 28 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Heirloom Wealth Management | $7.7 Mil | 1.8% | 43 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Brandywine Trust Co | $7.5 Mil | 1.3% | 32 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Solus Alternative Asset Management LP | $34.8 Mil | 9.4% | 10 | TRIM -32.8% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| RWWM, Inc. | $54.5 Mil | 4.0% | 34 | TRIM -18.7% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Schwerin Boyle Capital Management Inc | $34.1 Mil | 4.3% | 47 | TRIM -6.7% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunbelt Securities, Inc. | $229.3 Mil | 14.5% | 2954 | Hold | 13F |
| Adams Natural Resources Fund, Inc. | $226.4 Mil | 26.2% | 54 | Hold | 13F |
| Doliver Advisors, LP | $178.7 Mil | 40.6% | 180 | Hold | 13F |
| Castle Hook Partners LP | $147.6 Mil | 3.0% | 44 | New | 13F |
| RWWM, Inc. | $54.5 Mil | 4.0% | 34 | TRIM -18.7% | 13F |
| Miller Wealth Advisors, LLC | $49.5 Mil | 19.0% | 117 | Hold | 13F |
| Randolph Co Inc | $45.7 Mil | 4.4% | 43 | Hold | 13F |
| Solus Alternative Asset Management LP | $34.8 Mil | 9.4% | 10 | TRIM -32.8% | 13F |
| Schwerin Boyle Capital Management Inc | $34.1 Mil | 4.3% | 47 | TRIM -6.7% | 13F |
| Warther Private Wealth, LLC | $29.7 Mil | 7.0% | 40 | ADD +144.7% | 13F |
| California First Leasing Corp | $27.3 Mil | 8.7% | 39 | Hold | 13F |
| Westchester Capital Management, Inc. | $20.5 Mil | 4.1% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Hatch Cove Capital, LLC | $20.0 Mil | 7.6% | 19 | ADD +153.5% | 13F |
| Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | $18.4 Mil | 2.9% | 41 | Hold | 13F |
| Allen Operations LLC | $15.3 Mil | 2.3% | 36 | Hold | 13F |
| TB Alternative Assets Ltd. | $13.5 Mil | 2.8% | 36 | New | 13F |
| ADAPT Investment Managers SA | $10.0 Mil | 3.4% | 34 | New | 13F |
| Keystone Financial Planning, Inc. | $8.3 Mil | 2.2% | 40 | Hold | 13F |
XOM Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Exxon Mobil is capitalizing on historically high refining margins, which management expects to persist 'well through next year.' This, combined with disciplined cost controls and advantaged project growth, is generating substantial free cash flow. This cash fully funds a robust $20 billion annual buyback program and a recently increased dividend.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Commodity ProducerVolume x Price. Revenue is a direct function of production/sales volumes multiplied by prevailing market prices for crude oil, natural gas, refined products, and chemicals. Margin Capture & Cost Control. Profitability is driven by the spread between commodity input costs and final product prices (e.g., refining margins) and the company's ability to control operating expenses through structural cost savings.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests yes. The company is leveraging its scale to capture peak margins while executing on cost savings and funding a $20 billion annual buyback program with generated cash.
- Energy Products earnings increased by $7,660 million in Q3 from stronger refining margins.
- The company returned $9.4 billion to shareholders in Q3 2026.
- Management plans to maintain share repurchases at $20 billion in 2027.
- Cumulative structural cost savings reached $16.9 billion, on track for a $20 billion target.
- The Q4 2026 dividend was raised by 3.9% to a new midpoint of $1.07.
PRIMARY RISK
The core risk is a rapid resolution of global conflicts, which would normalize the 'historically high' refining margins that drove recent earnings. This would expose underlying weakness from declining chemical margins and geopolitical volume impacts, which cut Q3 Upstream earnings by $860 million.
- Global refining margins are at 'historically high levels' due to temporary supply disruptions.
- Upstream earnings decreased by $860 million in Q3 due to Middle East disruption impacts.
- Global chemical margins declined 'further below the bottom of the 10-year range' in Q3.
- Oil-equivalent production fell by 273 thousand barrels per day year-over-year in Q3.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Oil-Equivalent Production | 4,496 thousand oil-equivalent barrels per day for Q3 2026 - Weakening | The year-over-year decline in total production was driven by external factors, specifically disruptions in the Middle East and Kazakhstan, as well as entitlement effects in Guyana. Management commentary on the earnings call emphasized that underlying volumes from advantaged growth assets, such as the Permian and Guyana, are increasing, and total production is up year-over-year when excluding the Middle East impacts. |
| Revenue Growth (YoY) | 32.6% year-over-year growth for the quarter ended 9/30/2026 - Decelerating | While still robust, the year-over-year revenue growth rate has slowed from the prior quarter. The strong growth is primarily a function of higher commodity prices and refining margins, which have more than offset the decline in production and throughput volumes. The sequential decline can be influenced by seasonality. |
| Refinery throughput | 3,735 thousand barrels per day (Q3 2026) | Measures the volume of crude oil processed by the company's refineries, a key indicator of operational performance and the ability to capture refining margins. |
| Structural Cost Savings | $16.9 billion (cumulative) (As of Q3 2026 (since 2019)) | Market rewards The company is on its way to a target of $20 billion in cumulative savings by 2030.. Represents sustainable decreases in cash operating expenses, indicating management's success in improving efficiency and lowering the company's breakeven costs. |
Refining Windfall vs. Geopolitical Headwinds and Chemical Weakness
BULL VIEW
Bulls believe management's view that supply disruptions will last 'well through next year,' allowing the company to continue generating massive free cash flow from elevated refining margins, more than offsetting weakness elsewhere and funding huge buybacks.
CORE TENSION
Can record refining margins, which added $7,660 million to Q3 earnings, continue to overwhelm the $860 million hit from geopolitical volume disruptions?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The bull view is favored for now. Management's explicit timeline for market tightness lasting 'well through next year' provides a clear, if temporary, runway for outsized earnings.
BEAR VIEW
Bears see the refining boom as transient and un-investable. They focus on the $860 million Q3 earnings hit from Middle East disruptions and chemical margins falling 'below the bottom of the 10-year range' as the true underlying business.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
in the fourth quarter | Guyana a named item from the call Project Startup Watch: The company's fifth development in Guyana, a named item from the call, is expected to start up. |
later this quarter | Corporate Plan Metrics Update Watch: A press release will reaffirm key planning metrics for 2027. |
as we get through the back end of this year | a named item from the call Final Decision Watch: Final investment decision (FID) expected for the a named item from the call project in Mozambique. |
1/27/2027 | Peer Read-Through on Costs Watch: Peer commentary on operating costs, inflation, supply chain constraints, and regional production trends like the Permian. |
1/28/2027 | Ongoing Middle East Production Impact Watch: Management's quantification of Q4 volume and earnings impact from ongoing supply disruptions in the Middle East. |
1/28/2027 | Persistent Chemical Segment Weakness Watch: Commentary on chemical margins, feedstock costs like ethane, and new global capacity additions impacting supply. |
1/28/2027 | Next Quarterly Earnings Report Watch: The company is scheduled to report its next quarterly earnings. |
No set date | Refining Margin Normalization Watch: News on the Strait of Hormuz reopening, Russian refinery repairs, or China increasing product exports. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-10-30 | Reported Q3 and Raised Dividend Details: The company reported Q3 GAAP earnings of $14.5 billion and announced a 3.9% increase in its Q4 dividend guidance to a new midpoint of $1.07 per share. | -2.0% $183.29 -> $179.67 |
2026-09-15 | Completed Debt Tender Offers Details: The company announced the results of its cash tender offers for outstanding 2030 and 2031 senior notes from its subsidiary, Pioneer Natural Resources Company. | -1.1% $165.08 -> $163.32 |
2026-07-31 | Announced Q2 Financial Results Details: The company reported Q2 earnings of $14.5 billion and cash flow from operations of $23.6 billion, despite the temporary loss of approximately 10% of upstream production. | -1.2% $155.96 -> $154.06 |
2026-07-31 | Guyana FPSO Set Sail Details: In June, the company's fifth FPSO for Guyana, Errea Wittu, set sail and remains on track for start-up by the end of the year. | -1.2% $155.96 -> $154.06 |
2026-05-04 | Reported Strong Q1 Results Details: The company reported strong Q1 results with Permian production surging 17% year-over-year and Guyana operations reaching record output. | +1.4% $150.74 -> $152.85 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: XOM trades at roughly 26% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 10% for the S&P 500 (2.6x the market). A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
CVX - Chevron
Integrated Peer DiversificationChevron offers a different asset mix and potentially higher gross margins, which were 32.4% on a trailing-twelve-month basis compared to Exxon Mobil's 21.2%.
MPC - Marathon Petroleum
Pure-Play Refining ExposureMarathon Petroleum provides more concentrated exposure to the refining segment, which is currently experiencing historically high margins, without the offsetting volatility from upstream production or weak chemical markets.
An industrial giant leveraging its unmatched scale, integration, and disciplined capital allocation to generate superior returns through volatile commodity cycles.
ExxonMobil's strategy is to invest counter-cyclically in advantaged, low-cost oil and gas assets (Guyana, Permian) while optimizing its massive downstream and chemical operations for maximum efficiency and margin capture. This generates substantial free cash flow, which is consistently returned to shareholders via a growing dividend and large-scale buybacks, a strategy designed to provide reliable returns regardless of market conditions.
Sustained high refining margins, successful and on-schedule startups of major projects like a company initiative in Guyana, and continued production growth in the Permian.
A rapid resolution of global conflicts leading to a collapse in refining margins, significant operational failures or project delays, or a sharp, sustained downturn in global oil prices.
Short-term stock price reactions to earnings, minor operational issues like the Joliet refinery pump failure mentioned in a September report, or tender offers for debt.
Repricing Catalyst
The ongoing global supply disruptions that have created historically high refining margins, as noted in an October report, which are driving significant earnings beats and cash flow generation.
Upstream
$114.6B TTM (21% of Total)What It Is
This segment explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas, which it sells to refiners, including ExxonMobil's own downstream operations, and other industrial customers.
Who Pays & How
Refining companies and utilities write the checks for crude oil and natural gas to use as feedstock for their operations. They rely on major producers like ExxonMobil for large, reliable, and long-term supply from geographically diverse sources.
Competition
Energy Products
$367.2B TTM (68% of Total)What It Is
This segment manufactures and sells petroleum products like gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel to wholesale and retail customers worldwide.
Who Pays & How
Distributors, retailers, industrial end-users (e.g., airlines, shipping companies), and individual consumers pay for refined fuels. They choose ExxonMobil for its product quality, brand recognition, and the reliability of its vast global distribution network.
Competition
Chemical Products
$35.5B TTM (7% of Total)What It Is
This segment manufactures and sells petrochemicals, including olefins, polyolefins, and aromatics, to other industrial companies.
Who Pays & How
Industrial manufacturers pay for chemical feedstocks to produce plastics, packaging, and other finished goods. They rely on ExxonMobil for large-scale, consistent supply and the benefits of its integrated sites, which provide a cost advantage.
Competition
Specialty Products
$22.7B TTM (4% of Total)What It Is
This segment manufactures and sells high-performance products, including lubricants and basestocks, to a variety of industrial and consumer markets.
Who Pays & How
Automotive, industrial, and marine customers pay for lubricants and other specialty products that meet specific performance requirements. They choose ExxonMobil for its technology-led differentiation and product quality.
Competition
Exxon Mobil — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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