Tearsheet

ConocoPhillips (COP)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $91.88 | Market Cap: $114.4 Bil
Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

ConocoPhillips (COP)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $91.88
Market Cap: $114.4 Bil
Sector: Energy
Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include US LNG, US Oilfield Technologies, Show more.
 
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include US LNG, US Oilfield Technologies, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

COP Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining the approximate -6.4% movement in ConocoPhillips (COP) stock from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: 1. Lower Realized Commodity Prices Impacted Earnings. The company's third-quarter 2025 earnings, reported on November 6, 2025, showed a year-over-year decline in both GAAP and adjusted earnings per share due to lower realized commodity prices. The total average realized price per barrel of oil equivalent (BOE) was $46.44, a 14% decrease from $54.18 in the third quarter of 2024. This trend of lower realized prices also impacted second-quarter 2025 earnings, reported just before the period in question on August 7, 2025.

2. Persistent Weakness and Volatility in Global Oil Prices. Throughout the period, the broader oil market faced declining and volatile prices. As of September 24, 2025, oil prices had decreased by more than 10% year-to-date, a significant factor affecting ConocoPhillips' stock. By December 4, 2025, Brent crude prices had fallen 0.86% over the past month and were down 12.65% year-over-year, while WTI crude showed similar declines. Forecasts by institutions like J.P. Morgan Research anticipated lower Brent crude prices for 2025 and 2026 due to soft demand and increased OPEC production.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
COP Return-36%87%74%2%-12%-7%74%
Peers Return-41%79%58%0%8%-12%60%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
COP Win Rate42%67%58%58%33%50% 
Peers Win Rate42%65%67%53%52%48% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
COP Max Drawdown-65%-1%0%-20%-16%-16% 
Peers Max Drawdown-67%-1%-2%-19%-10%-20% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: EOG, OKE, EPM, BSM, COP. See COP Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCOPS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-33.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven50.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven91 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-65.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven193.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven558 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-36.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven58.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven868 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-63.3%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven172.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1690 days1480 days

Compare to EOG, OKE, EPM, BSM, COP


In The Past

ConocoPhillips's stock fell -33.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/7/2022. A -33.5% loss requires a 50.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About ConocoPhillips (COP)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to COP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
8.3%8.3%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.3%13.3%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
22.5%22.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.4%-0.4%-5.7%
COP_2292020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield02292020COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-19.1%12.0%-53.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
8.3%8.3%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.3%13.3%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
22.5%22.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.4%-0.4%-5.7%
COP_2292020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield02292020COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-19.1%12.0%-53.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for ConocoPhillips

Peers to compare with:

Financials

COPEOGOKEEPMBSMMedian
NameConocoPh.EOG Reso.ONEOK Evolutio.Black St. 
Mkt Price------
Mkt Cap------
Rev LTM------
Op Inc LTM------
FCF LTM------
FCF 3Y Avg------
CFO LTM------
CFO 3Y Avg------

Growth & Margins

COPEOGOKEEPMBSMMedian
NameConocoPh.EOG Reso.ONEOK Evolutio.Black St. 
Rev Chg LTM------
Rev Chg 3Y Avg------
Rev Chg Q------
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM------
Op Mgn LTM------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM------
CFO/Rev LTM------
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg------
FCF/Rev LTM------
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg------

Valuation

COPEOGOKEEPMBSMMedian
NameConocoPh.EOG Reso.ONEOK Evolutio.Black St. 
Mkt Cap------
P/S------
P/EBIT------
P/E------
P/CFO------
Total Yield------
Dividend Yield------
FCF Yield 3Y Avg------
D/E------
Net D/E------

Returns

COPEOGOKEEPMBSMMedian
NameConocoPh.EOG Reso.ONEOK Evolutio.Black St. 
1M Rtn------
3M Rtn------
6M Rtn------
12M Rtn------
3Y Rtn------
1M Excs Rtn------
3M Excs Rtn------
6M Excs Rtn------
12M Excs Rtn------
3Y Excs Rtn------

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment56,14178,49445,82818,78432,567
Total56,14178,49445,82818,78432,567


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity13,164,917
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-15.9%
Average Daily Volume7,351,566
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.79
Basic Shares Quantity1,245,253,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024218202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023215202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022216202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021217202210-K 12/31/2021