Trade Desk (TTD)
Market Price (11/11/2026): $15.37 | Market Cap: $7.3 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Communication Services | Industry: Advertising
Trade Desk (TTD)
Market Price (11/11/2026): $15.37Market Cap: $7.3 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Advertising
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -15% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28% Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 12% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.1 Bil Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, and Social Media & Creator Economy. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, Programmatic Advertising, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -118%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -154% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.5% Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 8450% Key risksTTD key risks include [1] competition from "walled gardens" limiting access to premium ad inventory, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -15% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 12% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.1 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, and Social Media & Creator Economy. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, Programmatic Advertising, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -118%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -154% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.5% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 8450% |
| Key risksTTD key risks include [1] competition from "walled gardens" limiting access to premium ad inventory, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Nov 9: up 15.5% in one day (S&P 500 up 2.4%)
The stock surged after beating third-quarter earnings and revenue estimates, despite analyst pessimism. This happened as the broader market also staged a relief rally.
Up 29.4% since its Oct 6 low (S&P 500 down 3.7%)
The stock largely rallied without specific company news during this period, despite an S&P 500 decline. Its biggest day was November 9, driven by an earnings beat, with other notable jumps on October 15 and October 22.
Nov 10: up 3.3% the day after its Nov 9 earnings report (S&P 500 down 0.4%)
The stock gained after third-quarter earnings and revenues beat estimates. This occurred despite year-over-year declines in net income and EPS and rising cost pressures.
Nov 9: up 15.5% in one day (S&P 500 up 2.4%)
The stock surged after beating third-quarter earnings and revenue estimates, despite analyst pessimism. This happened as the broader market also staged a relief rally.
Up 29.4% since its Oct 6 low (S&P 500 down 3.7%)
The stock largely rallied without specific company news during this period, despite an S&P 500 decline. Its biggest day was November 9, driven by an earnings beat, with other notable jumps on October 15 and October 22.
Nov 10: up 3.3% the day after its Nov 9 earnings report (S&P 500 down 0.4%)
The stock gained after third-quarter earnings and revenues beat estimates. This occurred despite year-over-year declines in net income and EPS and rising cost pressures.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -14.5% change in TTD stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/10/2026 was primarily driven by a -99.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 18.04 | 15.42 | -14.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,969 | 2,987 | 0.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.6% | 11.0% | -24.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 0.2 | 22.0 | 10992.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 5 | 469 | -99.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -14.5% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TTD | -14.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.4% | 32.1% |
| Sector (XLC) | -0.4% | 42.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -34.6% change in TTD stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/10/2026 was primarily driven by a -27.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 23.59 | 15.42 | -34.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,896 | 2,987 | 3.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.3% | 11.0% | -27.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 25.3 | 22.0 | -13.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 476 | 469 | 1.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -34.6% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TTD | -34.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.6% | 23.4% |
| Sector (XLC) | -7.3% | 47.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -69.3% change in TTD stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/10/2026 was primarily driven by a -99.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 50.28 | 15.42 | -69.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,679 | 2,987 | 11.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.6% | 11.0% | -29.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 0.6 | 22.0 | 3613.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 5 | 469 | -99.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -69.3% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TTD | -69.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 10.9% | 23.5% |
| Sector (XLC) | -5.3% | 40.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -78.3% change in TTD stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/10/2026 was primarily driven by a -99.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 70.96 | 15.42 | -78.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,733 | 2,987 | 72.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.5% | 11.0% | 47.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 2.7 | 22.0 | 719.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 5 | 469 | -99.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -78.3% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TTD | -78.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 85.5% | 35.7% |
| Sector (XLC) | 71.8% | 39.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TTD Return | 14% | -51% | 61% | 63% | -68% | -59% | -81% |
| Peers Return | 1% | -46% | 81% | 67% | 11% | 6% | 94% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 101% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TTD Win Rate | 50% | 25% | 67% | 67% | 33% | 27% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 54% | 33% | 75% | 68% | 52% | 45% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 36% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TTD Max Drawdown | -46% | -56% | -30% | -18% | -71% | -70% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -14% | -54% | -20% | -20% | -35% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: GOOGL, AMZN, META, VZ, DSP. See TTD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/10/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TTD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -41.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -16.8% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.1% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 13 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -23.8% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.2% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 95 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -54.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 118.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 368 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -54.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 118.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 50 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -24.8% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.0% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 25 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Trade Desk's stock fell -41.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 69.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | TTD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -41.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -23.8% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.2% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 95 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -54.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 118.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 368 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -54.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 118.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 50 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -24.8% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.0% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 25 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -31.7% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.4% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 6 days |
In The Past
Trade Desk's stock fell -41.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 69.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Trade Desk (TTD)
Trade Desk (TTD) is a technology company that operates a self-service, cloud-based platform designed for the programmatic advertising industry. The company's core function is to empower ad buyers, typically advertising agencies and other service providers for advertisers, to create, manage, and optimize their digital advertising campaigns.
The platform facilitates data-driven ad purchasing across a comprehensive range of digital formats and channels. This includes display, video, audio, native advertising, and social media, reaching consumers on various devices such as computers, mobile devices, and connected TV (CTV). Beyond its robust ad campaign management tools, Trade Desk also provides supplementary data and other value-added services to enhance campaign performance and insights.
Its primary customer base consists of advertising agencies and other service providers who utilize the platform to efficiently buy and manage digital ad inventory on behalf of their advertiser clients, making Trade Desk a key player on the "buy-side" of the digital advertising ecosystem.
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- It's like Booking.com or Expedia, but for advertisers to buy and optimize digital ad space.
- Salesforce for digital advertising campaigns.
- Think of it as Google Ads or Facebook Ads, but for buying and optimizing ads across the entire open internet.
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- Cloud-Based Advertising Platform: A self-service platform enabling buyers to create, manage, and optimize data-driven digital advertising campaigns across various ad formats and channels.
- Data and Value-Added Services: Supplementary services that provide insights and additional tools to enhance advertising campaign performance.
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- WPP plc (Symbol: WPP)
- Omnicom Group Inc. (Symbol: OMC)
- Publicis Groupe S.A. (Symbol: PUBGY - ADR; PUB.PA - Euronext Paris)
- Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. (Symbol: IPG)
- Dentsu Group Inc. (Symbol: DNTUY - ADR; 9697.T - TSE)
- Accenture Song (a division of Accenture plc, Symbol: ACN)
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The Trade Desk (TTD) relies on several major suppliers to operate its demand-side platform and facilitate digital advertising campaigns. These include cloud infrastructure providers and supply-side platforms (SSPs) that provide access to ad inventory.
- Microsoft (MSFT)
- Magnite (MGNI)
- PubMatic (PUBM)
- Google (GOOGL)
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Jeff Green
Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and Founder
Jeff Green is the co-founder, chairman, and CEO of The Trade Desk, which he founded in 2009. Prior to The Trade Desk, he co-founded AdECN, an online advertising exchange, in 2004. AdECN was acquired by Microsoft in 2007, after which Green spent two years leading the Microsoft Online Services Division.
Laura Schenkein
Chief Financial Officer
Laura Schenkein is the Chief Financial Officer at The Trade Desk, Inc. In this role, she is responsible for overseeing the company's financial operations, including financial planning, risk management, record-keeping, and financial reporting. She brings extensive experience in finance and leadership, having held prominent roles in both public and private companies across the technology sector.
Dave Pickles
Chief Technology Officer and Founder
Dave Pickles is the co-founder and Chief Technology Officer of The Trade Desk, overseeing all engineering, product innovation, and data science. He co-founded the company with Jeff Green in 2009. Earlier in his career, he was a senior engineer at the internet telephony startup CallWave, Inc. He later joined AdECN (which was acquired by Microsoft), where he and his team built the federated exchange for real-time bidding.
Samantha Jacobson
Chief Strategy Officer and Executive Vice President
Samantha Jacobson serves as Chief Strategy Officer and Executive Vice President at The Trade Desk, managing strategic investments and cross-functional initiatives. She joined The Trade Desk after six years at Oracle, where she managed the global business development and strategy team. Before Oracle, Jacobson was at Datalogix, where she developed partnerships with major industry players such as Twitter, Pinterest, Microsoft, Google, and Apple. She also held various business development, partner management, and strategy positions at companies including eBay and American Express prior to Datalogix.
Ian Colley
Chief Marketing Officer and Executive Vice President
Ian Colley is the Chief Marketing Officer and Executive Vice President at The Trade Desk, leading global communications, editorial content, content marketing, and social media. Before joining The Trade Desk, Colley spent over 20 years at IBM, where he led communications for various divisions, including IBM Cloud, IBM Finance, IBM Global Services, and IBM Europe.
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The key risks for The Trade Desk (TTD) are primarily concentrated in the highly dynamic and competitive digital advertising technology sector.
- Intense Competition from "Walled Gardens" and Consolidation of Ad Spend: The Trade Desk operates as an independent demand-side platform (DSP) in an industry facing significant competition from large, integrated technology companies often referred to as "walled gardens," such as Google, Meta (Facebook), and Amazon. These companies control vast amounts of first-party data and have proprietary advertising platforms, incentivizing advertisers to keep their spending within these ecosystems. This dynamic poses a continuous challenge to independent platforms like The Trade Desk in terms of market share, access to inventory, and overall growth prospects. For instance, Amazon's aggressive expansion in advertising, particularly in the Connected TV (CTV) market, and its partnerships with streaming platforms like Netflix, have intensified competitive pressures for TTD.
- Evolving Data Privacy Regulations and Cookie Deprecation: The Trade Desk's core business of enabling data-driven digital advertising campaigns is highly dependent on the collection and utilization of user data. The ongoing shift in the digital advertising landscape, driven by stricter global data privacy regulations (like GDPR and CCPA) and the impending deprecation of third-party cookies, presents a significant risk. While The Trade Desk has invested in privacy-centric identity solutions such as Unified ID 2.0 (UID2), their effectiveness, widespread adoption, and compliance with evolving privacy laws are subject to continuous scrutiny and potential legal challenges, including class-action lawsuits alleging privacy violations.
- Ad Fraud, Brand Safety, and Lack of Transparency in the Programmatic Supply Chain: As a programmatic advertising platform, The Trade Desk is exposed to inherent industry risks related to ad fraud and brand safety. Ad fraud, which includes tactics like fake impressions, bot traffic, pixel stuffing, and ad stacking, can deplete advertiser budgets with no real engagement. Furthermore, brand safety concerns arise when automated ad placements result in advertisements appearing alongside inappropriate, offensive, or irrelevant content, potentially harming a brand's reputation. The complex and sometimes opaque nature of the programmatic advertising supply chain can also lead to a lack of transparency for advertisers regarding ad placements and associated costs, which The Trade Desk must continuously address to maintain client trust and platform integrity.
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Evolving privacy regulations and platform policies from major technology companies. This includes the impending deprecation of third-party cookies in web browsers like Google Chrome, as well as increased restrictions on app tracking and data usage from platforms like Apple (e.g., App Tracking Transparency framework). These shifts fundamentally challenge the data-driven targeting and measurement capabilities upon which The Trade Desk's self-service cloud-based advertising platform relies, potentially favoring "walled garden" ecosystems that control their own first-party data. While TTD is actively developing alternative identity solutions, the successful adoption and effectiveness of these solutions across the fragmented digital advertising landscape represent a significant, ongoing threat to its core business model.
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- Global Digital Advertising Market: The global digital advertising market is projected to reach approximately $786.22 billion by 2026 and is expected to surpass $850 billion in 2026. Another estimate suggests the global online advertising market size will grow from $416.65 billion in 2026 to $1344.68 billion by 2034. The broader total addressable market for digital advertising is projected to expand from approximately $700 billion to $1.5 trillion by 2034.
- Global Programmatic Advertising Market: The global programmatic advertising market size is estimated to be approximately $0.72 trillion (USD 720 billion) in 2026, with projections to reach $1.17 trillion by 2031. Another report indicates the global programmatic advertising market is likely to be valued at US$273.7 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach US$975.1 billion by 2033. Global programmatic ad spend is also forecast to surpass US$200 billion in 2026.
- Connected TV (CTV) Advertising Market: Global CTV ad spending is projected to surpass $45 billion by the end of 2026. For the U.S. specifically, CTV ad spending is projected to reach approximately $38 billion in 2026. Another estimate for U.S. CTV advertising spending projects it will reach $32.57 billion in 2026.
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The Trade Desk (TTD) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key initiatives and market trends:
- Growth in Connected TV (CTV) Advertising: Connected TV remains a significant growth driver, with the company consistently reporting strong performance in this channel. The Trade Desk's platform is strategically positioned to benefit from the increasing adoption of CTV, which is central to its long-term growth strategy.
- Advancements in AI-driven Innovation with the Kokai Platform: The Trade Desk's AI-powered platform, Kokai, is crucial for future performance and innovation. Nearly all clients are currently running campaigns through Kokai, and the company aims to demonstrate that its AI consistently delivers superior results in an open, multi-publisher environment. Potential partnerships, such as those reportedly explored with OpenAI for AI-driven ad inventory, further underscore the importance of AI in its growth trajectory.
- Expansion in Retail Media and Optimization of the Open Internet Supply Chain: The company is focused on expanding its retail data marketplace and simplifying measurement, user experience, and billing. The Trade Desk is also dedicated to improving the overall supply chain of the open internet, positioning itself to capture a larger share of the global advertising market. The increasing ad supply further strengthens the value proposition of independent, inventory-neutral platforms like The Trade Desk.
- Increasing Advertiser Demand and Programmatic Advertising Adoption: The Trade Desk benefits from the ongoing shift of advertisers towards data-driven programmatic and streaming-first channels. As brands increasingly rely on automated ad buying to manage campaigns and optimize spending with real-time data, The Trade Desk's robust position in programmatic advertising is expected to fuel continued revenue expansion.
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Capital Allocation Decisions (Last 3-5 Years)
Share Repurchases
- The Trade Desk utilized approximately $1.4 billion of cash to repurchase its Class A common stock in the year ended December 31, 2025, at an average repurchase price of $52.60.
- As of February 25, 2026, the board of directors authorized an additional $350 million for share repurchases, bringing the total amount available for future repurchases of Class A common stock to $500 million.
- Annual share buybacks amounted to $646.597 million in 2023 and $234.784 million in 2024.
Share Issuance
- Stock-based compensation for the twelve months ending December 31, 2025, was $1.259 billion, showing a 4.47% increase year-over-year.
- Stock-based compensation was $494.7 million in 2024 and $491.6 million in 2023.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for fiscal year 2025 reached $197 million, marking a peak in the last five years.
- Capital expenditures were $98.238 million in 2024 and $46.79 million in 2023, the latter being a five-year low.
- Expected capital expenditures are $187.6 million for 2026 and $196.6 million for 2027, primarily focused on funding long-term assets and infrastructure.
Peer Outperformance in Advertising
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTD | Trade Desk | 18.0% | 22.0x | -64.4% | -75.9% | -82.6% | — |
| OMC | Omnicom | 21.5% | 34.5x | 27.2% | 30.4% | 53.5% | +136pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wireless Telecommunication Services | 3 | -4.5% | 20.5% | 48.7% | ECHO 278% · TMUS 49% |
| Publishing | 6 | 25.5% | 16.2% | 9.2% | NYT 61% · NWSA 18% · WLY 11% |
| Integrated Telecommunication Services | 21 | -10.5% | 21.3% | -17.4% | GSAT 272% · AD 93% · TDS 89% |
| Movies & Entertainment | 22 | 13.0% | 50.9% | -27.8% | IMAX 139% · FWONA 99% · CNK 98% |
| Broadcasting | 14 | -8.9% | -21.5% | -67.0% | FOXA 76% · NXST 44% · SIRI -39% |
| Interactive Media & Services | 33 | -37.3% | -39.3% | -70.7% | GOOGL 99% · META 98% · CARG -9% |
| Alternative Carriers | 4 | -45.4% | 11.4% | -72.4% | IRDM 20% · LUMN -63% |
| Interactive Home Entertainment | 8 | -44.5% | -59.6% | -72.4% | TTWO 23% · RBLX -46% · PINS -59% |
| Advertising ← | 18 | -39.3% | -10.1% | -73.1% | APP 313% · OMC 54% · MGNI 27% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
Research & Analysis
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Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 159.05 |
| Mkt Cap | 919.5 |
| Rev LTM | 190,496 |
| Op Inc LTM | 54,228 |
| FCF LTM | 9,364 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 9,830 |
| CFO LTM | 86,068 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 72,678 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 18.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 17.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 18.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 12.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 46.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 19.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 19.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 32.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 919.5 |
| P/S | 3.0 |
| P/Op Inc | 21.7 |
| P/EBIT | 15.6 |
| P/E | 21.8 |
| P/CFO | 9.4 |
| Total Yield | 4.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.9% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -0.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 1.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 5.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 93.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -1.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -4.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 28.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $15.42 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 7.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/21/2016 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -65.1% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $13.13 | $19.30 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | 17.5% | -20.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 55.8% | 58.8% |
| Downside Capture | 152.68 | 151.87 |
| Upside Capture | 230.32 | 9.97 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 45.5% | 23.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.98 | 1.19 | 1.23 | 0.72 | 0.87 | 1.38 |
| Up Beta | -8.40 | -1.91 | 1.31 | -0.10 | 0.71 | 1.49 |
| Down Beta | 3.11 | 1.49 | 0.87 | 1.24 | 1.39 | 1.92 |
| Up Capture | 73% | 123% | 22% | -12% | -11% | 20% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 19 | 29 | 53 | 105 | 374 |
| Down Capture | 50% | 182% | 226% | 154% | 138% | 109% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 24 | 35 | 73 | 145 | 373 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TTD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTD | -64.3% | 58.8% | -1.52 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | -3.0% | 16.8% | -0.36 | 39.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.7% | 13.7% | 0.62 | 22.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 0.3% | 28.9% | 0.00 | -3.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 34.5% | 21.3% | 1.28 | -9.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.7% | 14.2% | 0.53 | 15.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -27.7% | 43.5% | -0.63 | 11.9% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TTD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTD | -27.1% | 67.9% | -0.18 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 7.1% | 21.1% | 0.25 | 53.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.6% | 17.3% | 0.50 | 48.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.2% | 19.1% | 0.72 | 1.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.4% | 19.6% | 0.26 | 6.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.4% | 18.9% | -0.04 | 33.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 3.4% | 51.5% | 0.25 | 31.4% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TTD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTD | 19.2% | 68.0% | 0.55 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 8.8% | 22.1% | 0.43 | 53.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 18.0% | 0.71 | 46.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.7% | 16.6% | 0.58 | 1.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 18.1% | 0.33 | 11.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.9% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 30.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 59.5% | 66.3% | 0.99 | 17.5% |
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Earnings Returns History
Updated 11/11/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/9/2026 | 3.3% | ||
| 8/6/2026 | -21.9% | -17.6% | -18.3% |
| 5/7/2026 | -1.7% | -13.1% | -17.3% |
| 2/25/2026 | -4.8% | 0.0% | -13.6% |
| 11/6/2025 | -6.3% | -6.6% | -14.2% |
| 8/7/2025 | -38.6% | -42.5% | -41.1% |
| 5/8/2025 | 18.6% | 29.4% | 19.3% |
| 2/12/2025 | -33.0% | -38.0% | -55.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 12 | 13 |
| # Negative | 14 | 12 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 17.5% | 14.1% | 14.8% |
| Median Negative | -6.0% | -12.0% | -14.2% |
| Max Positive | 36.2% | 46.4% | 41.0% |
| Max Negative | -38.6% | -42.5% | -55.9% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/9/2026 | 3.3% | ||
| 8/6/2026 | -21.9% | -17.6% | -18.3% |
| 5/7/2026 | -1.7% | -13.1% | -17.3% |
| 2/25/2026 | -4.8% | 0.0% | -13.6% |
| 11/6/2025 | -6.3% | -6.6% | -14.2% |
| 8/7/2025 | -38.6% | -42.5% | -41.1% |
| 5/8/2025 | 18.6% | 29.4% | 19.3% |
| 2/12/2025 | -33.0% | -38.0% | -55.9% |
| 11/7/2024 | -5.6% | -5.0% | 1.7% |
| 8/8/2024 | 12.5% | 13.9% | 12.5% |
| 5/8/2024 | 3.1% | 4.9% | 9.5% |
| 2/15/2024 | 17.5% | 7.6% | 3.5% |
| 11/9/2023 | -16.7% | -13.7% | -6.7% |
| 8/9/2023 | -4.7% | -10.1% | 3.7% |
| 5/10/2023 | -0.7% | 1.8% | 14.8% |
| 2/15/2023 | 32.8% | 13.0% | 17.9% |
| 11/9/2022 | -8.0% | 23.5% | 11.9% |
| 8/9/2022 | 36.2% | 35.3% | 18.1% |
| 5/10/2022 | -0.9% | 22.0% | 20.0% |
| 2/16/2022 | 0.5% | -7.9% | -18.8% |
| 11/8/2021 | 29.5% | 46.4% | 39.6% |
| 8/9/2021 | -3.2% | -3.7% | -10.4% |
| 5/10/2021 | -26.0% | -21.8% | -8.6% |
| 2/18/2021 | 6.7% | -10.9% | -13.4% |
| 11/5/2020 | 26.6% | 14.3% | 41.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 12 | 13 |
| # Negative | 14 | 12 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 17.5% | 14.1% | 14.8% |
| Median Negative | -6.0% | -12.0% | -14.2% |
| Max Positive | 36.2% | 46.4% | 41.0% |
| Max Negative | -38.6% | -42.5% | -55.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/09/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/27/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/15/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/09/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/27/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/15/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/16/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/08/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/09/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/10/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/19/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/07/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/08/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/28/2020 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 11/10/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 11/9/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 Revenue | Reported | 755.00 Mil | 755.00 Mil | 16.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 650.00 Mil for Q3 2026 | ||
| Q4 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 280.00 Mil | 280.00 Mil | 75.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 160.00 Mil for Q3 2026 | ||
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Revenue | Reported | 650.00 Mil | -13.3% | Lower New | Guidance: 750.00 Mil for Q2 2026 | |||
| Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 160.00 Mil | -38.5% | Lower New | Guidance: 260.00 Mil for Q2 2026 | |||
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/7/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Revenue | Reported | 750.00 Mil | 10.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 678.00 Mil for Q1 2026 | |||
| Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 260.00 Mil | 33.3% | Higher New | Guidance: 195.00 Mil for Q1 2026 | |||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/25/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | Reported | 678.00 Mil | -19.3% | Lower New | Guidance: 840.00 Mil for Q4 2025 | |||
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 195.00 Mil | -48.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 375.00 Mil for Q4 2025 | |||
Insider Activity
Updated 10/21/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacobson, Samantha | Direct | Sell | 6012026 | 21.14 | 53,681 | 1,134,816 | 276,913 | Form | |
| 2 | Falberg, Kathryn E | Direct | Sell | 3092026 | 30.45 | 102,828 | 3,131,113 | 59,256 | Form | |
| 3 | Falberg, Kathryn E | Family Trust | Sell | 3092026 | 30.48 | 50,000 | Form | |||
| 4 | Green, Jeffrey Terry | President and CEO | Limited Partnership | Buy | 3042026 | 25.08 | 2,314,304 | 58,042,744 | 150,480,000 | Form |
| 5 | Green, Jeffrey Terry | President and CEO | Limited Partnership | Buy | 3042026 | 24.97 | 1,685,696 | 42,091,829 | 92,031,829 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacobson, Samantha | Direct | Sell | 6012026 | 21.14 | 53,681 | 1,134,816 | 276,913 | Form | |
| 2 | Falberg, Kathryn E | Direct | Sell | 3092026 | 30.45 | 102,828 | 3,131,113 | 59,256 | Form | |
| 3 | Falberg, Kathryn E | Family Trust | Sell | 3092026 | 30.48 | 50,000 | Form | |||
| 4 | Green, Jeffrey Terry | President and CEO | Limited Partnership | Buy | 3042026 | 25.08 | 2,314,304 | 58,042,744 | 150,480,000 | Form |
| 5 | Green, Jeffrey Terry | President and CEO | Limited Partnership | Buy | 3042026 | 24.97 | 1,685,696 | 42,091,829 | 92,031,829 | Form |
| 6 | Green, Jeffrey Terry | President and CEO | Limited Partnership | Buy | 3042026 | 23.98 | 2,000,000 | 47,966,693 | 47,966,693 | Form |
TTD Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
After a period of significant underperformance, leading indicators suggest a potential turnaround. The company issued Q4 revenue guidance that was 16.2% higher than prior expectations and strategic client commitments (JBPs) grew over 30% year-over-year.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Transactional Platform / Marketplace(Total Client Ad Spend) x (Platform Take Rate) Operating leverage achieved as increasing client ad spend scales across the fixed cost base of the technology platform.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests a turnaround is beginning, driven by stabilizing demand from sophisticated advertisers and internal restructuring.
- Q4 revenue guidance of at least $755 million was a 16.2% upward revision.
- Strategic Joint Business Plans (JBPs) grew more than 30% year-over-year in Q3.
- Customer retention has exceeded 95% for over a decade, providing a stable base.
PRIMARY RISK
Competitors like Google and Amazon are growing their ad businesses at 12% while Trade Desk's latest quarter contracted -0.5%, suggesting its independent value proposition is eroding against their scale and first-party data.
- Latest-quarter revenue declined -0.5% year-over-year.
- Google and Amazon both grew advertising revenue 12% in their latest quarters.
- Trailing-twelve-month operating margin contracted 1.6 percentage points to 17.3%.
- Competitors have vastly greater resources for R&D and infrastructure investment.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (YoY) | -0.5% for the quarter ended 9/30/2026 - Decelerating | The year-over-year growth trend has sharply decelerated over the past three quarters, turning negative in the most recent period. Management noted the latest result was impacted by macro pressures but also included a non-recurring 3-percentage-point benefit, implying weaker underlying performance. However, the positive sequential growth and a significant beat versus guidance suggest a potential stabilization. |
| Joint Business Plan (JBP) Count Growth (YoY) | Up more than 30% year-over-year in Q3 2026 - Decelerating | Management presents JBP growth as a key leading indicator of deeper client relationships and future spend, noting that clients with JBPs grow 'meaningfully faster.' While the growth rate is slowing, it remains robust and signals continued strategic adoption by large advertisers. |
| Joint Business Plans (JBPs) | Up more than 30% year-over-year (Q3 2026) | JBPs signal deeper, more strategic, long-term alignment with clients. Customers under JBPs are reported to grow 'meaningfully faster' than those under standard Master Services Agreements (MSAs). |
| Customer Retention Rate | Exceeded 95% for over a decade (as of 11/10/2026 10-K filing) | A high retention rate indicates strong client satisfaction and the stickiness of the platform, supporting a scalable business model. |
Turnaround Signals vs. Competitive Pressures
BULL VIEW
The strong Q4 guidance and 30%+ growth in strategic JBPs are leading indicators that the worst is over and sophisticated advertisers are recommitting to the platform's objective value proposition.
CORE TENSION
Can the re-acceleration implied by the $755M+ Q4 guide overcome the structural decay suggested by trailing revenue growth significantly lagging peers?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The most recent evidence—the significant Q3 beat and strong Q4 guidance—favors the bull case that an inflection is underway, though it is not yet confirmed in trailing results.
BEAR VIEW
The recent beat is a head-fake. Trailing growth of -0.5% versus peers at +12% shows accelerating share loss to scaled competitors, and the recent restructuring is a sign of weakness.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
later this quarter | Open Measurement Product Launch Watch: Company to launch its new 'open measurement' product, designed to more accurately assign value across the customer journey. |
1/26/2027 | Meta Platforms Earnings Report Watch: Peer Meta Platforms (META) is scheduled to report earnings, providing a key read-through on the digital advertising market. |
1/28/2027 | Verizon Communications Earnings Report Watch: Peer Verizon Communications (VZ) is scheduled to report earnings. |
2/23/2027 | Turnaround Narrative Falters Watch: Q1 2027 revenue guidance and commentary on JBP momentum, which management cites as a key growth indicator. |
2/23/2027 | Q4 Earnings and 2027 Plan Watch: Company to report Q4 2026 earnings and provide details on its 2027 operating plan. |
Jan/Feb 2027 | Negative Ad Market Read-Across Watch: Commentary on programmatic, CTV, and overall ad budget trends from Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon earnings calls. |
No set date | Sustained Key Vertical Weakness Watch: Earnings reports from major CPG and auto companies, specifically their commentary on marketing and advertising budgets. |
THIS_QUARTER | New Product Execution Failure Watch: A formal launch announcement for the Open Measurement product and any initial adoption metrics or partner endorsements. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-11-09 | Q3 Beat and Strong Guidance Raise Details: The company reported Q3 revenue of $736 million, ahead of outlook, and raised Q4 revenue guidance by 16.2% (G-1, T-1). The stock had a positive two-day reaction of 19.0% (MKT-1). | +19.3% $12.93 -> $15.42 |
2026-10-24 | Governance Scrutiny Over Option Repricing Details: A press report highlighted that CEO Jeff Green used his supervoting power to approve the repricing of executive stock options over opposition from outside investors (ART-4). | -3.0% $13.16 -> $12.77 |
2026-09-04 | Major Restructuring and Layoffs Details: The company announced a restructuring plan that included cutting its global workforce by approximately 15% in an effort to become more focused and agile (ART-6, ART-7). | -7.1% $15.09 -> $14.02 |
2026-08-06 | Q2 Earnings Miss and Stock Plunge Details: The stock had a two-day reaction of -27.0% (DRAW-1). | -27.2% $18.96 -> $13.80 |
2026-07-15 | New Commercial Leadership Appointed Details: The company appointed Kristi Argyilan as Chief Commercial Officer and Executive Vice President to lead data partnerships, identity, measurement, and retail media (REWIND-1). | +1.0% $18.94 -> $19.12 |
2026-06-11 | New Marketing Leadership Appointed Details: The company appointed Sarah Gavin as Chief Marketing Officer and Executive Vice President to lead global brand, communications, and demand generation efforts (REWIND-1). | -0.1% $19.29 -> $19.28 |
2026-05-22 | Headwinds and Guidance Deceleration Details: Following Q1 earnings, an analyst note highlighted 'multitudinous headwinds, with Q2 guidance showing only 8% YoY revenue growth and underperformance versus digital ad peers' (REWIND-1). | +4.2% $21.28 -> $22.18 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: TTD trades at roughly 54% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 15% for the S&P 500 (3.7x the market). A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
GOOGL - Alphabet
Integrated Ad EcosystemAlphabet offers exposure to the world's dominant search advertising business and YouTube, providing integrated access to massive 'walled garden' inventory that Trade Desk cannot reach. Its operating margin is substantially higher at 33.3%.
AMZN - Amazon.com
Retail Media LeaderAmazon provides direct exposure to the fast-growing retail media segment, leveraging its vast first-party shopper data to deliver targeted ads at the point of purchase. This offers a different, commerce-focused angle on digital advertising.
An independent, buy-side tollbooth for the open internet, whose value proposition of objective decisioning is amplified by market fragmentation and a glut of ad supply.
In a digital advertising market dominated by 'walled gardens' like Google and Meta that sell their own inventory, Trade Desk operates as an objective platform solely for ad buyers. Its AI-driven tools help advertisers navigate a vast and growing supply of ad opportunities to find the most effective placements. This independence builds trust, which is crucial for clients to share their valuable first-party data, especially in an AI-driven world.
Signing more Joint Business Plans (JBPs) with major brands, evidence of market share gains from walled gardens, and successful adoption of new products like Audience Unlimited and its open measurement framework.
Sustained revenue deceleration, margin compression from pricing pressure, loss of a major advertising holding company, or regulations that severely limit data-driven targeting and undermine its core value proposition.
Short-term stock volatility around earnings reports, or news about competitors launching new features without evidence of direct market share loss for TTD.
Repricing Catalyst
The company reported Q3 2026 results that were 'meaningfully ahead' of its prior outlook and issued Q4 guidance that was also significantly higher, signaling a potential turnaround after a period of decelerating growth and a sharp stock price decline over the last twelve months.
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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