Oracle (ORCL)
Market Price (7/23/2026): $126.32 | Market Cap: $363.2 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Oracle (ORCL)
Market Price (7/23/2026): $126.32Market Cap: $363.2 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.3% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 33% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 47%, CFO LTM is 32 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 4.9 Bil Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Cybersecurity, and Automation & Robotics. Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -42%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -56% | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -35% Key risksORCL key risks include [1] significant financial strain from its aggressive AI data center expansion, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.3% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 33% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 47%, CFO LTM is 32 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 4.9 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Cybersecurity, and Automation & Robotics. Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -42%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -56% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -35% |
| Key risksORCL key risks include [1] significant financial strain from its aggressive AI data center expansion, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Oracle (ORCL) stock has lost about 15% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Aggressive Capital Expenditures and Negative Free Cash Flow for AI Infrastructure.
Oracle's stock experienced pressure due to its substantial capital investment in AI infrastructure, which led to a negative free cash flow. In fiscal year 2026, which ended May 31, 2026, Oracle's capital expenditures (capex) surged to $55.7 billion, significantly higher than $21.2 billion in fiscal 2025. This aggressive spending, aimed at building out data centers to meet a record $638 billion in remaining performance obligations (RPO) driven by AI contracts, resulted in a negative free cash flow of $23.7 billion for fiscal 2026. Investors expressed concerns about the scale of these investments and their impact on short-term financial performance, despite strong demand for Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI).
2. Investor Concerns Over Margin Pressure and Elevated Financing Needs.
Despite beating earnings and revenue expectations in its fiscal Q4 2026 report on June 10, 2026, Oracle's stock declined due to investor apprehension regarding future gross margin pressure and increased capital raise plans. The company disclosed plans to raise approximately $40 billion in fiscal 2027 through a combination of debt and equity financing, including a previously announced $20 billion at-the-market equity issuance, to fund its ongoing AI buildout. This follows $43 billion in debt and $5 billion in equity financing raised in fiscal 2026. Such substantial capital raises and the resulting increase in debt, coupled with potential share dilution, contributed to investor caution. S&P Global Ratings also downgraded Oracle's credit rating to BBB- due to aggressive spending and rising net debt, which reached $97.6 billion.
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Oracle (ORCL) stock has lost about 15% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Aggressive Capital Expenditures and Negative Free Cash Flow for AI Infrastructure.
Oracle's stock experienced pressure due to its substantial capital investment in AI infrastructure, which led to a negative free cash flow. In fiscal year 2026, which ended May 31, 2026, Oracle's capital expenditures (capex) surged to $55.7 billion, significantly higher than $21.2 billion in fiscal 2025. This aggressive spending, aimed at building out data centers to meet a record $638 billion in remaining performance obligations (RPO) driven by AI contracts, resulted in a negative free cash flow of $23.7 billion for fiscal 2026. Investors expressed concerns about the scale of these investments and their impact on short-term financial performance, despite strong demand for Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI).
2. Investor Concerns Over Margin Pressure and Elevated Financing Needs.
Despite beating earnings and revenue expectations in its fiscal Q4 2026 report on June 10, 2026, Oracle's stock declined due to investor apprehension regarding future gross margin pressure and increased capital raise plans. The company disclosed plans to raise approximately $40 billion in fiscal 2027 through a combination of debt and equity financing, including a previously announced $20 billion at-the-market equity issuance, to fund its ongoing AI buildout. This follows $43 billion in debt and $5 billion in equity financing raised in fiscal 2026. Such substantial capital raises and the resulting increase in debt, coupled with potential share dilution, contributed to investor caution. S&P Global Ratings also downgraded Oracle's credit rating to BBB- due to aggressive spending and rising net debt, which reached $97.6 billion.
3. Significant Insider Selling Activity.
Insider selling activity contributed to negative sentiment surrounding Oracle's stock. Over the last three months, company insiders sold a total of $66.3 million in shares, with no insider purchases reported. Notably, Vice Chairman Jeffrey Henley sold 400,000 shares on June 24, 2026, for a total transaction value of $63.66 million. This significant selling by executives can be interpreted by the market as a lack of confidence in the company's near-term financial outlook or a signal of potential headwinds, further pressuring the stock price.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -13.9% change in ORCL stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -18.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 146.09 | 125.84 | -13.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 64,077 | 67,358 | 5.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 25.3% | 25.4% | 0.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 25.9 | 21.2 | -18.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,874 | 2,875 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -13.9% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ORCL | -13.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.9% | 43.9% |
| Sector (XLK) | 35.6% | 53.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -34.8% change in ORCL stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -40.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 193.05 | 125.84 | -34.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 61,017 | 67,358 | 10.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 25.3% | 25.4% | 0.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 35.8 | 21.2 | -40.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,864 | 2,875 | -0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -34.8% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ORCL | -34.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.9% | 45.4% |
| Sector (XLK) | 25.4% | 55.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -41.7% change in ORCL stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -56.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 215.71 | 125.84 | -41.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 57,399 | 67,358 | 17.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 21.7% | 25.4% | 17.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 48.7 | 21.2 | -56.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,807 | 2,875 | -2.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -41.7% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ORCL | -41.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 22.0% | 36.2% |
| Sector (XLK) | 43.0% | 49.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 9.8% change in ORCL stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 49.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 114.56 | 125.84 | 9.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 49,954 | 67,358 | 34.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 17.0% | 25.4% | 49.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 36.5 | 21.2 | -42.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 2,708 | 2,875 | -5.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 9.8% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ORCL | 9.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.6% | 46.1% |
| Sector (XLK) | 111.3% | 55.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ORCL Return | 37% | -5% | 31% | 60% | 18% | -34% | 113% |
| Peers Return | 30% | -31% | 64% | 32% | 21% | -13% | 106% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 100% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ORCL Win Rate | 58% | 33% | 58% | 58% | 50% | 43% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 32% | 67% | 68% | 50% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 57% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ORCL Max Drawdown | -16% | -31% | -21% | -14% | -46% | -51% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -14% | -40% | -16% | -21% | -28% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MSFT, AMZN, CRM, GOOGL, IBM. See ORCL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/22/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ORCL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 52 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -11.1% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.5% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 29 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -14.6% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.1% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 104 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -29.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 101 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -28.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 103 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -13.8% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 32 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Oracle's stock fell -32.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 47.3% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | ORCL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 52 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -29.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 101 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -28.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 103 days | 140 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -23.9% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.4% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 66 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -39.8% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.1% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 252 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Oracle's stock fell -32.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 47.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Oracle (ORCL)
Oracle Corporation (ORCL) is a global technology company that provides a comprehensive array of products and services designed to address the information technology needs of enterprises worldwide. The company primarily serves businesses across various industries, government agencies, and educational institutions, helping them manage and optimize their operations through advanced software, cloud solutions, and infrastructure.
Oracle's core offerings span several key areas. It provides an extensive suite of cloud software as a service (SaaS) applications, including its Oracle Fusion Cloud for Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP), Human Capital Management (HCM), Supply Chain Management, and Customer Experience, as well as the NetSuite applications suite. Beyond SaaS, Oracle is a major provider of critical cloud infrastructure and platform services (PaaS/IaaS) such as its widely adopted Oracle Database, the Java programming language, and its Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) offering compute, storage, and networking capabilities. The company also sells traditional software licenses, offers hardware products like engineered systems and servers, and provides related support and consulting services.
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Oracle is like:
- Microsoft for enterprise software and cloud services.
- A blend of SAP for business applications and AWS for cloud infrastructure.
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- Oracle Fusion Cloud Applications (SaaS): A comprehensive suite of cloud-based enterprise software for resource planning, performance management, supply chain, human capital, and customer experience.
- NetSuite Applications Suite: A cloud-based business management software suite primarily for small and mid-sized organizations, covering ERP, CRM, and e-commerce.
- Cloud-based Industry Solutions: Specialized cloud software and services designed to meet the unique needs of various specific industries.
- Oracle Database: A leading enterprise relational database management system for storing and managing critical business data.
- Java & Middleware: The widely used Java programming language and accompanying software for application development, integration, and process automation.
- Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI): Cloud services providing scalable compute, storage, and networking resources for running diverse workloads.
- Autonomous Database Services: Self-managing, self-securing, and self-repairing cloud database services, including autonomous data warehouse and transaction processing.
- Emerging Technology Services: Cloud-based services leveraging Internet-of-Things (IoT), digital assistants, and blockchain technologies for various business applications.
- Hardware Products: A range of enterprise hardware offerings including engineered systems, servers, storage solutions, and industry-specific devices.
- Application Licenses & Support: Licenses for Oracle's on-premise applications along with comprehensive support services for their maintenance and operation.
- Consulting Services: Expert professional services to assist customers with the implementation, optimization, and management of Oracle's diverse product portfolio.
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- Businesses in various industries
- Government agencies
- Educational institutions
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Clayton Magouyrk, Co-Chief Executive Officer
Clayton Magouyrk was promoted to Co-Chief Executive Officer of Oracle, effective September 22, 2025. He joined Oracle in 2014 from Amazon Web Services (AWS) and was a founding member of Oracle's cloud engineering team. Prior to his promotion, he served as President of Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) since June 2025. At Oracle, he has been responsible for overseeing the design, implementation, and business success of the second generation of Oracle Cloud Infrastructure. Before joining Oracle, Magouyrk was a senior engineer at Amazon and Amazon Web Services.
Mike Sicilia, Co-Chief Executive Officer
Mike Sicilia was promoted to Co-Chief Executive Officer of Oracle, effective September 22, 2025. He joined Oracle in 2009, coming through the acquisition of Primavera Systems. Prior to his promotion, he served as President of Oracle Industries since June 2025. Before joining Oracle, Sicilia was the Chief Technology Officer at Primavera Systems. His teams at Oracle have pioneered the use of intent-based application generation and integrated sophisticated AI Agents into Oracle's industry application suites.
Douglas Kehring, Executive Vice President, Principal Financial Officer
Douglas Kehring was promoted to Executive Vice President and Principal Financial Officer (CFO) of Oracle, effective September 22, 2025. He has been with Oracle since 2000, most recently serving as Executive Vice President of Operations.
Larry Ellison, Executive Chairman and Chief Technology Officer
Larry Ellison is the co-founder of Oracle Corporation, which he started in 1977 as Software Development Laboratories (SDL) with Robert Miner and Ed Oates. He served as Oracle's Chief Executive Officer from 1977 until September 2014, when he transitioned to his current roles as Executive Chairman and Chief Technology Officer. Ellison was involved in the sale of NetSuite to Oracle for $9.3 billion in 2016, where he personally gained $3.5 billion from his 35% ownership of NetSuite. He also co-founded a software startup called Project Ronin, which closed in 2024.
Safra Catz, Executive Vice Chair of the Board
Safra Catz transitioned to the role of Executive Vice Chair of the Board of Oracle, effective September 22, 2025, after serving as CEO. She joined Oracle in 1999 and has held numerous leadership positions, including President (since 2004), Chief Financial Officer (2005-2014 and 2016-2017), Co-CEO (2014-2019), and then sole CEO (2019-2025). Catz has been instrumental in Oracle's acquisition strategy, notably overseeing the $10.3 billion acquisition of PeopleSoft in 2005. Prior to Oracle, she was a banker at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette from 1986 to 1999, where she held roles including managing director and senior vice president. She has also served on the board of HSBC Holdings plc and currently serves on the board of The Walt Disney Company.
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The public company Oracle (symbol: ORCL) faces several key risks to its business, primarily stemming from its strategic pivot towards cloud services and artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure.
- Intense Competition in Cloud Services: Oracle operates in a highly competitive market, particularly in cloud services (Infrastructure-as-a-Service and Software-as-a-Service). It faces significant competition from major cloud providers such as Amazon Web Services (AWS), Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud Platform, all of whom possess substantial resources and larger market shares. In the enterprise application software (SaaS) space, Oracle also competes with established players like SAP and Salesforce. This intense competition necessitates continuous innovation and substantial investment to maintain and grow market position.
- Increasing Debt Load and High Capital Expenditures for Cloud Infrastructure: Oracle's aggressive expansion into cloud infrastructure, particularly for AI capabilities, requires significant capital expenditures. This strategy has led to an increasing debt load, with total non-current liabilities rising substantially. There are concerns that if capital expenditures remain high relative to operating cash flow, it could result in negative free cash flow and potentially impact financial flexibility or lead to credit rating downgrades. The company's future performance is increasingly tied to the success of these cloud offerings and the returns on these heavy investments.
- Client Concentration Risk: A significant portion of Oracle's remaining performance obligations (RPO), which represent future contractual revenue, is dependent on a large, multi-year contract with OpenAI. This substantial client concentration creates a specific risk, as Oracle's financial outlook could be adversely affected if OpenAI is unable to meet its commitments or if there are disruptions to this key relationship.
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The clear emerging threat to Oracle stems from the accelerating shift in the enterprise database market. Traditionally dominant with its proprietary Oracle Database, the company faces significant challenges from two fronts:
First, the widespread adoption of **open-source databases** such as PostgreSQL, MongoDB, and Cassandra, which offer comparable functionality, greater flexibility, and significantly lower licensing costs. This trend erodes demand for Oracle's high-margin database licenses, especially among newer companies and those seeking to avoid vendor lock-in.
Second, the rise of **cloud-native, managed database services** offered by hyperscale cloud providers like Amazon Web Services (AWS), Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud Platform (GCP). These providers offer their own fully managed database services (e.g., AWS Aurora, Azure Cosmos DB, Google Cloud Spanner) that are often optimized for their respective cloud environments, providing ease of use, scalability, and competitive pricing, directly competing with Oracle's database offerings and encouraging customers to migrate their data away from Oracle's ecosystem.
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Cloud Software as a Service (SaaS)
- Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) Software: The global ERP software market was valued at approximately USD 92.6 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 281.58 billion by 2034. North America is a dominant region, holding a 34.20% share of the global market in 2025.
- Enterprise Performance Management (EPM) Software: The global Enterprise Performance Management software market size was estimated at USD 6.73 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 15.35 billion by 2033. North America held a 39.2% revenue share of the global EPM market in 2024.
- Supply Chain Management (SCM) Software: The global supply chain management software market size was valued at USD 23.2 billion in 2025 and is estimated to reach USD 54.8 billion by 2034. North America dominated this market with over 39.2% market share in 2025.
- Human Capital Management (HCM) Software: The global human capital management market size was valued at USD 34.12 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 76.22 billion by 2034. North America was the leading revenue contributor in 2025, accounting for 45.50% of the global market share.
- Customer Experience (CX) Software: The global customer experience (CX) software market was valued at $25 billion in 2025 and is forecasted to achieve a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 15% from 2025 to 2033. The global Customer Experience (CX) Enterprise Software market is projected to reach USD 24.7 billion by 2031.
Cloud and License Business' Infrastructure Technologies
- Database Management System (DBMS): The global database management system market size was valued at USD 132.09 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 406.03 billion by 2034. North America accounts for approximately 40% of the global market.
- Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS): The worldwide IaaS market reached $171.8 billion in 2024 and is predicted to increase from USD 134.45 billion in 2026 to approximately USD 1061.67 billion by 2035. North America garnered the highest revenue share of 46% in 2025.
Hardware Products
- Enterprise Servers: The global enterprise server market size was more than USD 92.93 billion in 2025 and is anticipated to reach USD 191.53 billion by 2035. North America is projected to hold a 35% share of this market by 2035.
- Enterprise Storage Solutions: The global enterprise storage system market size was valued at around USD 78.41 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 142.81 billion by 2034. North America was the largest region in the enterprise storage market in 2025.
Consulting Services
- IT Consulting Services: The global IT consulting services market size was valued at around USD 78.03 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 129.15 billion by 2034. North America is a leading region, with businesses rapidly implementing advanced solutions, and accounts for 27.75% of the global market revenue in 2025.
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Oracle Corporation (ORCL) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives and market trends:
- Explosive Growth in Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) Driven by AI Workloads: Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a primary driver of revenue growth, experiencing significant acceleration due to the surging demand for artificial intelligence (AI) training and inference capacity. OCI revenue increased by an impressive 84% year-over-year in Q3 fiscal year 2026. The company has secured massive contracts, including commitments for billions of dollars in AI capacity, and is aggressively expanding its data center footprint to meet this demand.
- Expansion of Multicloud Database Offerings and SaaS Applications: Oracle's multicloud database revenue has shown remarkable growth, soaring 531% year-over-year in Q3 fiscal year 2026. Additionally, the company's cloud-based software as a service (SaaS) offerings, particularly Oracle Fusion Cloud Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP), Fusion Cloud Supply Chain & Manufacturing Management (SCM), and Fusion Cloud Human Capital Management (HCM), continue to be strong contributors. Fusion ERP revenue grew 14% in constant currency in Q3 fiscal year 2026. Oracle is enhancing these applications by embedding over 1,000 AI agents to improve competitiveness, automate tasks, and provide real-time insights.
- Substantial Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO): Oracle boasts a record-breaking backlog of $553 billion in remaining performance obligations, a significant portion of which is attributed to large-scale AI contracts and cloud service commitments. This substantial backlog provides strong visibility and a clear roadmap for sustained revenue generation over the coming years.
- Cloud Transition and AI Integration in Oracle Health (Cerner): While initially facing "near-term headwinds" during its transition, Oracle is accelerating the migration of its Cerner business (now Oracle Health) to the cloud. The strategy involves integrating AI-powered clinical agents into the Electronic Health Record (EHR) system to reduce physician burnout and improve the healthcare platform. This cloud-first approach for Oracle Health is expected to scale up its cloud business in the healthcare market.
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Share Repurchases
- Oracle executed $5.3 billion in share buybacks during fiscal year 2025, a significant increase from $1.2 billion in the previous year.
- From fiscal years ending May 2021 to 2025, Oracle's repurchase of common stock averaged -$9.237 billion.
- In December 2021, Oracle's Board of Directors authorized the repurchase of up to an additional $10.0 billion of common stock under its existing program.
Share Issuance
- The average issuance of common stock for Oracle from fiscal years ending May 2021 to 2025 was 856.9 million.
- Share issuance peaked at 1.461 billion in May 2021 and reached a 5-year low of 449.1 million in May 2022.
- In February 2026, Oracle announced its intent to raise up to $50 billion in debt and equity financing, having already raised $30 billion through bonds and mandatory convertible preferred stock, with the at-the-market equity portion yet to be initiated.
Outbound Investments
- Oracle's largest acquisition to date was Cerner in June 2022, for $28.3 billion, aimed at enhancing electronic health records and data analytics.
- As of fiscal year 2025, Oracle has completed over 150 acquisitions, with total expenditures exceeding $110 billion, primarily focused on expanding its technology portfolio.
- Recent notable acquisitions include NextService (October 2023), Newmetrix (December 2022), FOEX (August 2022), and Adi Insights (May 2022).
Capital Expenditures
- Oracle has increased its capital expenditure forecast for fiscal year 2026 to $50 billion, a significant rise from the previously anticipated $35 billion for the same fiscal year.
- Oracle's capital expenditures for fiscal years ending May 2021 to 2025 averaged $8.684 billion, peaking at $21.215 billion in May 2025.
- The primary focus of these expenditures is on revenue-generating equipment, including GPU-based infrastructure and data centers to support the growing demand for Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) and AI workloads.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 225.31 |
| Mkt Cap | 1,496.1 |
| Rev LTM | 193,592 |
| Op Inc LTM | 53,932 |
| FCF LTM | 13,460 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 17,113 |
| CFO LTM | 90,254 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 72,175 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 15.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 17.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.9% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 20.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 22.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 27.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 25.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 38.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 35.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1,496.1 |
| P/S | 4.5 |
| P/Op Inc | 17.8 |
| P/EBIT | 16.9 |
| P/E | 22.2 |
| P/CFO | 15.4 |
| Total Yield | 5.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.4% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -11.8% |
| 6M Rtn | -18.9% |
| 12M Rtn | -23.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 39.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -16.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -30.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -43.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -23.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cloud and software | 49,230 | 44,464 | 41,086 | 36,052 | 34,101 |
| Services | 5,233 | 5,431 | 5,594 | 3,205 | 3,021 |
| Hardware | 2,936 | 3,066 | 3,274 | 3,183 | 3,359 |
| Cloud and license revenues | -2 | ||||
| Total | 57,399 | 52,961 | 49,954 | 42,440 | 40,479 |
| $ Mil | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|
| License | 4,188 | 2,585 |
| Support | 880 | 2,925 |
| Consulting | 510 | 477 |
| Education | 163 | 199 |
| Total | 5,741 | 6,186 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $125.84 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 361.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/12/1986 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -61.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $173.93 | $187.83 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -27.7% | -33.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 63.8% | 65.6% |
| Downside Capture | 503.26 | 293.45 |
| Upside Capture | 214.04 | 158.89 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 47.5% | 35.6% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.71 | 2.21 | 2.04 | 1.89 | 1.83 | 1.48 |
| Up Beta | -1.52 | -1.62 | 0.19 | 0.52 | 0.49 | 1.07 |
| Down Beta | 1.60 | 2.07 | 2.20 | 2.00 | 2.12 | 1.52 |
| Up Capture | 13% | 295% | 254% | 221% | 231% | 493% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 5 | 19 | 30 | 54 | 121 | 396 |
| Down Capture | 391% | 345% | 339% | 213% | 173% | 111% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 16 | 22 | 33 | 71 | 131 | 353 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ORCL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORCL | -47.9% | 65.4% | -0.75 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 38.8% | 24.7% | 1.27 | 49.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 20.0% | 12.6% | 1.16 | 35.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.2% | 28.1% | 0.67 | 12.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 33.0% | 19.1% | 1.36 | 6.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.9% | 14.0% | 0.70 | -10.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -43.6% | 42.9% | -1.21 | 28.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ORCL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORCL | 8.8% | 42.6% | 0.32 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 19.6% | 25.6% | 0.68 | 54.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.58 | 47.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.3% | 18.4% | 0.76 | 9.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.3% | 19.5% | 0.37 | 9.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.7% | 18.9% | 0.04 | 21.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 15.2% | 53.5% | 0.46 | 18.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ORCL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORCL | 13.4% | 35.4% | 0.45 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 24.5% | 24.8% | 0.89 | 57.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 53.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.5% | 16.1% | 0.58 | 7.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.1% | 17.9% | 0.31 | 14.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 31.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.5% | 66.2% | 0.99 | 12.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 7/15/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 6/10/2026 | -8.5% | -8.8% | -34.4% |
| 3/10/2026 | 9.2% | 3.5% | -7.4% |
| 12/10/2025 | -10.8% | -20.0% | -8.0% |
| 9/9/2025 | 35.9% | 27.0% | 19.5% |
| 6/11/2025 | 13.3% | 19.6% | 33.5% |
| 3/10/2025 | -3.1% | 3.5% | -16.3% |
| 12/9/2024 | -6.7% | -10.1% | -18.7% |
| 9/9/2024 | 11.4% | 21.8% | 24.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 12 | 16 |
| # Negative | 14 | 12 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 11.6% | 9.5% | 7.2% |
| Median Negative | -4.4% | -8.5% | -14.9% |
| Max Positive | 35.9% | 27.0% | 33.5% |
| Max Negative | -13.5% | -20.0% | -34.4% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 6/10/2026 | -8.5% | -8.8% | -34.4% |
| 3/10/2026 | 9.2% | 3.5% | -7.4% |
| 12/10/2025 | -10.8% | -20.0% | -8.0% |
| 9/9/2025 | 35.9% | 27.0% | 19.5% |
| 6/11/2025 | 13.3% | 19.6% | 33.5% |
| 3/10/2025 | -3.1% | 3.5% | -16.3% |
| 12/9/2024 | -6.7% | -10.1% | -18.7% |
| 9/9/2024 | 11.4% | 21.8% | 24.6% |
| 6/11/2024 | 13.3% | 16.8% | 17.2% |
| 3/11/2024 | 11.7% | 12.0% | 7.0% |
| 12/11/2023 | -12.4% | -8.8% | -8.6% |
| 9/11/2023 | -13.5% | -11.4% | -13.4% |
| 6/12/2023 | 0.2% | 4.8% | 1.2% |
| 3/9/2023 | -3.2% | -2.4% | 8.4% |
| 12/12/2022 | -0.9% | -1.0% | 9.6% |
| 9/12/2022 | -1.3% | -10.4% | -18.6% |
| 7/11/2022 | -1.6% | -1.9% | 7.3% |
| 3/10/2022 | 1.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% |
| 12/9/2021 | 15.6% | 16.3% | 0.9% |
| 9/13/2021 | -2.8% | -3.1% | 7.9% |
| 6/15/2021 | -5.6% | -3.6% | 6.0% |
| 3/10/2021 | -6.5% | -8.2% | 5.3% |
| 12/10/2020 | 1.9% | 6.9% | 5.3% |
| 9/10/2020 | -0.6% | 5.0% | 7.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 12 | 16 |
| # Negative | 14 | 12 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 11.6% | 9.5% | 7.2% |
| Median Negative | -4.4% | -8.5% | -14.9% |
| Max Positive | 35.9% | 27.0% | 33.5% |
| Max Negative | -13.5% | -20.0% | -34.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 05/31/2026 | 06/22/2026 | 10-K |
| 02/28/2026 | 03/11/2026 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2025 | 12/11/2025 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2025 | 09/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2025 | 06/18/2025 | 10-K |
| 02/28/2025 | 03/11/2025 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2024 | 12/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2024 | 09/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2024 | 06/20/2024 | 10-K |
| 02/29/2024 | 03/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2023 | 12/12/2023 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2023 | 09/12/2023 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2023 | 06/20/2023 | 10-K |
| 02/28/2023 | 03/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2022 | 12/13/2022 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2022 | 09/13/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 05/31/2026 | 06/22/2026 | 10-K |
| 02/28/2026 | 03/11/2026 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2025 | 12/11/2025 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2025 | 09/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2025 | 06/18/2025 | 10-K |
| 02/28/2025 | 03/11/2025 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2024 | 12/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2024 | 09/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2024 | 06/20/2024 | 10-K |
| 02/29/2024 | 03/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2023 | 12/12/2023 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2023 | 09/12/2023 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2023 | 06/20/2023 | 10-K |
| 02/28/2023 | 03/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2022 | 12/13/2022 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2022 | 09/13/2022 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2022 | 06/21/2022 | 10-K |
| 02/28/2022 | 03/11/2022 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2021 | 12/10/2021 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2021 | 09/13/2021 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2021 | 06/21/2021 | 10-K |
| 02/28/2021 | 03/11/2021 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2020 | 12/11/2020 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2020 | 09/15/2020 | 10-Q |
| 05/31/2020 | 06/22/2020 | 10-K |
| 02/29/2020 | 03/13/2020 | 10-Q |
| 11/30/2019 | 12/13/2019 | 10-Q |
| 08/31/2019 | 09/13/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/8/2026Latest: Q4 2026 Earnings Reported 6/10/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2027 Total Revenue Growth | 27.0% | 28.0% | 29.0% | 47.4% | 9.0% | Higher New | Actual: 19.0% for Q4 2026 |
| Q1 2027 Total Cloud Revenue Growth | 57.0% | 60.0% | 63.0% | 30.4% | 14.0% | Higher New | Actual: 46.0% for Q4 2026 |
| Q1 2027 Non-GAAP EPS | 1.71 | 1.73 | 1.75 | -10.8% | Lower New | Actual: 1.94 for Q4 2026 | |
| 2027 Total Revenue | 90.00 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 90.00 Bil for 2027 | |||
| 2027 Non-GAAP EPS | 8.05 | Raised | |||||
Prior: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 3/10/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 Revenue Growth | 18.0% | 19.0% | |||||
| Q4 2026 Cloud Revenue Growth | 44.0% | 46.0% | |||||
| Q4 2026 EPS Growth | 15.0% | 16.0% | |||||
| Q4 2026 EPS | 1.92 | 1.94 | |||||
| 2026 Revenue | 67.00 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 50.00 Bil | ||||||
| 2027 Revenue | 90.00 Bil | Raised | |||||
Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 12/10/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Amortization Expense | 812.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2027 Amortization Expense | 672.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2028 Amortization Expense | 635.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2029 Amortization Expense | 561.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2030 Amortization Expense | 522.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2031 Amortization Expense | 332.00 Mil | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 6/27/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Henley, Jeffrey | Vice Chairman | Direct | Sell | 6262026 | 159.16 | 400,000 | Form | ||
| 2 | Levey, Stuart | EVP, Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 4202026 | 176.19 | 15,000 | 2,642,850 | 604,156 | Form |
| 3 | Magouyrk, Clayton M | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 2112026 | 155.23 | 10,000 | 1,552,318 | 20,805,718 | Form |
| 4 | Kehring, Douglas A | EVP, Principal Financial Offcr | Direct | Sell | 1162026 | 194.89 | 35,000 | 6,821,150 | 6,555,710 | Form |
| 5 | Hura, Mark | Pres., Global Field Operations | Direct | Sell | 12292025 | 196.89 | 15,000 | 2,953,314 | 46,086,859 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Henley, Jeffrey | Vice Chairman | Direct | Sell | 6262026 | 159.16 | 400,000 | Form | ||
| 2 | Levey, Stuart | EVP, Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 4202026 | 176.19 | 15,000 | 2,642,850 | 604,156 | Form |
| 3 | Magouyrk, Clayton M | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 2112026 | 155.23 | 10,000 | 1,552,318 | 20,805,718 | Form |
| 4 | Kehring, Douglas A | EVP, Principal Financial Offcr | Direct | Sell | 1162026 | 194.89 | 35,000 | 6,821,150 | 6,555,710 | Form |
| 5 | Hura, Mark | Pres., Global Field Operations | Direct | Sell | 12292025 | 196.89 | 15,000 | 2,953,314 | 46,086,859 | Form |
| 6 | Seligman, Naomi O | Direct | Sell | 12232025 | 196.61 | 2,223 | 437,064 | 5,032,430 | Form | |
| 7 | Magouyrk, Clayton M | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 12232025 | 192.52 | 10,000 | 1,925,152 | 27,727,964 | Form |
| 8 | Berg, Jeffrey | The Berg Family Trust | Sell | 10302025 | 283.02 | 49,365 | 13,971,267 | 43,018,709 | Form | |
| 9 | Smith, Maria | EVP, Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 10232025 | 280.62 | 5,000 | 1,403,122 | 13,212,643 | Form |
| 10 | Smith, Maria | EVP, Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 10232025 | 280.00 | 5,000 | 1,400,000 | 14,583,240 | Form |
| 11 | Magouyrk, Clayton M | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 10232025 | 276.64 | 40,000 | 11,065,508 | 42,610,505 | Form |
| 12 | Levey, Stuart | EVP, Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 10142025 | 300.00 | 19,758 | 5,927,400 | 5,528,700 | Form |
| 13 | Seligman, Naomi O | Direct | Sell | 9302025 | 288.91 | 2,222 | 641,958 | 8,443,395 | Form | |
| 14 | Sicilia, Michael D | President, Industries | Direct | Sell | 9232025 | 321.16 | 33,845 | 10,869,660 | 42,603,891 | Form |
| 15 | Sicilia, Michael D | President, Industries | Direct | Sell | 9172025 | 313.60 | 16,323 | 5,118,893 | 34,525,566 | Form |
| 16 | Parrett, William G | Trust | Sell | 9162025 | 306.00 | 11,500 | 3,519,000 | 5,435,784 | Form | |
| 17 | Magouyrk, Clayton M | President, OCI | Direct | Sell | 9152025 | 297.11 | 21,241 | 6,310,865 | 23,174,401 | Form |
| 18 | Sicilia, Michael D | President, Industries | Direct | Sell | 8072025 | 254.48 | 15,880 | 4,041,142 | 25,247,541 | Form |
| 19 | Seligman, Naomi O | Direct | Sell | 7182025 | 233.32 | 3,303 | 770,656 | 7,337,214 | Form | |
| 20 | Fairhead, Rona Alison | Direct | Buy | 7092025 | 233.87 | 480 | 112,258 | 5,170,866 | Form | |
| 21 | Smith, Maria | EVP, Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 7082025 | 232.99 | 10,000 | 2,329,897 | 9,507,611 | Form |
| 22 | Catz, Safra | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 7012025 | 212.01 | 1,260,508 | 267,244,339 | 237,156,273 | Form |
| 23 | Catz, Safra | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 6262025 | 212.71 | 1,865,701 | 396,852,001 | 237,934,950 | Form |
| 24 | Catz, Safra | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 6262025 | 212.29 | 1,873,791 | 397,783,665 | 237,463,850 | Form |
| 25 | Catz, Safra | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 6242025 | 205.44 | 1,410,547 | 289,786,856 | 229,806,776 | Form |
| 26 | Catz, Safra | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 6242025 | 207.59 | 2,284,371 | 474,221,030 | 232,212,653 | Form |
| 27 | Conrades, George H | Direct | Sell | 6202025 | 213.49 | 8,169 | 1,744,000 | 8,209,971 | Form | |
| 28 | Magouyrk, Clayton M | President, OCI | Direct | Sell | 6202025 | 214.10 | 15,000 | 3,211,484 | 13,000,513 | Form |
| 29 | Henley, Jeffrey | Vice Chairman | Trust | Sell | 6132025 | 190.42 | 400,000 | 76,169,016 | 209,003,211 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Jul 23, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M37 Management LP | $44.1 Mil | 17.6% | 12 | ADD +200.0% | 13F |
| ShankerValleau Wealth Advisors, Inc. | $46.8 Mil | 13.2% | 39 | Hold | 13F |
| Broad Peak Investment Advisers Pte Ltd | $51.0 Mil | 10.4% | 23 | Hold | 13F |
| Compass Rose Asset Management, LP | $22.5 Mil | 7.3% | 15 | New | 13F |
| Estuary Capital Management LP | $38.6 Mil | 6.5% | 22 | New | 13F |
| Caledonia Investments PLC | $54.9 Mil | 6.4% | 15 | Hold | 13F |
| PARUS FINANCE (UK) Ltd | $19.8 Mil | 5.9% | 37 | ADD +15.2% | 13F |
| CTC LLC | $59.1 Mil | 4.7% | 25 | ADD +90.3% | 13F |
| Hamilton Capital Partners, LLC | $14.3 Mil | 4.5% | 30 | ADD +27.5% | 13F |
| Silverback Asset Management LLC | $22.1 Mil | 4.3% | 45 | New | 13F |
| Stanley Capital Management, LLC | $23.5 Mil | 3.9% | 40 | ADD +21.2% | 13F |
| Optimus Prime Fund Management Co., Ltd. | $37.5 Mil | 3.6% | 27 | New | 13F |
| Halter Ferguson Financial Inc. | $15.6 Mil | 3.4% | 36 | New | 13F |
| Coleford Investment Management Ltd. | $13.9 Mil | 3.4% | 24 | Hold | 13F |
| Minneapolis Portfolio Management Group, LLC | $31.8 Mil | 3.4% | 33 | ADD +32.2% | 13F |
| Focused Investors LLC | $90.8 Mil | 3.0% | 22 | ADD +79.9% | 13F |
| KADENSA CAPITAL Ltd | $20.7 Mil | 2.9% | 39 | ADD +22.6% | 13F |
| Raub Brock Capital Management LP | $10.7 Mil | 2.7% | 43 | Hold | 13F |
| Bowie Capital Management, LLC | $55.7 Mil | 2.6% | 29 | New | 13F |
| ADAPT Investment Managers SA | $7.3 Mil | 2.5% | 34 | New | 13F |
| DSM Capital Partners LLC | $114.3 Mil | 2.0% | 44 | ADD +40.1% | 13F |
| Mar Vista Investment Partners LLC | $17.6 Mil | 1.8% | 35 | Hold | 13F |
| Portman Square Capital LLP | $9.9 Mil | 1.5% | 44 | New | 13F |
| Ithaka Group LLC | $7.1 Mil | 1.5% | 38 | ADD +6.3% | 13F |
| Mark Asset Management LP | $9.2 Mil | 1.2% | 31 | TRIM -55.7% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowie Capital Management, LLC | $55.7 Mil | 2.6% | 29 | New | 13F |
| Estuary Capital Management LP | $38.6 Mil | 6.5% | 22 | New | 13F |
| Optimus Prime Fund Management Co., Ltd. | $37.5 Mil | 3.6% | 27 | New | 13F |
| Compass Rose Asset Management, LP | $22.5 Mil | 7.3% | 15 | New | 13F |
| Silverback Asset Management LLC | $22.1 Mil | 4.3% | 45 | New | 13F |
| Halter Ferguson Financial Inc. | $15.6 Mil | 3.4% | 36 | New | 13F |
| Fidelity National Financial, Inc. | $15.3 Mil | 0.6% | 21 | New | 13F |
| Portman Square Capital LLP | $9.9 Mil | 1.5% | 44 | New | 13F |
| ADAPT Investment Managers SA | $7.3 Mil | 2.5% | 34 | New | 13F |
| M37 Management LP | $44.1 Mil | 17.6% | 12 | ADD +200.0% | 13F |
| CTC LLC | $59.1 Mil | 4.7% | 25 | ADD +90.3% | 13F |
| Focused Investors LLC | $90.8 Mil | 3.0% | 22 | ADD +79.9% | 13F |
| DSM Capital Partners LLC | $114.3 Mil | 2.0% | 44 | ADD +40.1% | 13F |
| Minneapolis Portfolio Management Group, LLC | $31.8 Mil | 3.4% | 33 | ADD +32.2% | 13F |
| Hamilton Capital Partners, LLC | $14.3 Mil | 4.5% | 30 | ADD +27.5% | 13F |
| KADENSA CAPITAL Ltd | $20.7 Mil | 2.9% | 39 | ADD +22.6% | 13F |
| Stanley Capital Management, LLC | $23.5 Mil | 3.9% | 40 | ADD +21.2% | 13F |
| PARUS FINANCE (UK) Ltd | $19.8 Mil | 5.9% | 37 | ADD +15.2% | 13F |
| Ithaka Group LLC | $7.1 Mil | 1.5% | 38 | ADD +6.3% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PineStone Asset Management Inc. | $350.9 Mil | 2.2% | 43 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Corvex Management LP | $78.6 Mil | 2.6% | 24 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Saratoga Research & Investment Management | $67.4 Mil | 3.5% | 47 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| KEYWISE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT (HK) Ltd | $48.2 Mil | 3.8% | 17 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Value Aligned Research Advisors, LLC | $27.6 Mil | 0.6% | 47 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Ogborne Capital Management, LLC | $20.7 Mil | 6.8% | 11 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Benchstone Capital Management LP | $19.8 Mil | 2.2% | 43 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| CloudAlpha Capital Management Limited/Hong Kong | $19.7 Mil | 1.8% | 43 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Owl Creek Asset Management, L.P. | $14.1 Mil | 1.7% | 30 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Haverford Financial Services, Inc. | $10.6 Mil | 3.0% | 48 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Ratan Capital Management LP | $9.4 Mil | 2.6% | 39 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| VMS Asset Management Limited | $5.7 Mil | 2.2% | 42 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Contrarius Group Holdings Ltd | $10.2 Mil | 0.6% | 47 | TRIM -92.6% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Mark Asset Management LP | $9.2 Mil | 1.2% | 31 | TRIM -55.7% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | $6.9 Mil | 1.1% | 41 | TRIM -39.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Weitz Investment Management, Inc. | $8.1 Mil | 0.6% | 49 | TRIM -21.4% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Melqart Asset Management (UK) Ltd | $10.2 Mil | 1.0% | 41 | TRIM -17.4% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DSM Capital Partners LLC | $114.3 Mil | 2.0% | 44 | ADD +40.1% | 13F |
| Focused Investors LLC | $90.8 Mil | 3.0% | 22 | ADD +79.9% | 13F |
| CTC LLC | $59.1 Mil | 4.7% | 25 | ADD +90.3% | 13F |
| Bowie Capital Management, LLC | $55.7 Mil | 2.6% | 29 | New | 13F |
| Caledonia Investments PLC | $54.9 Mil | 6.4% | 15 | Hold | 13F |
| Broad Peak Investment Advisers Pte Ltd | $51.0 Mil | 10.4% | 23 | Hold | 13F |
| ShankerValleau Wealth Advisors, Inc. | $46.8 Mil | 13.2% | 39 | Hold | 13F |
| M37 Management LP | $44.1 Mil | 17.6% | 12 | ADD +200.0% | 13F |
| Estuary Capital Management LP | $38.6 Mil | 6.5% | 22 | New | 13F |
| Optimus Prime Fund Management Co., Ltd. | $37.5 Mil | 3.6% | 27 | New | 13F |
| Minneapolis Portfolio Management Group, LLC | $31.8 Mil | 3.4% | 33 | ADD +32.2% | 13F |
| Stanley Capital Management, LLC | $23.5 Mil | 3.9% | 40 | ADD +21.2% | 13F |
| Compass Rose Asset Management, LP | $22.5 Mil | 7.3% | 15 | New | 13F |
| Silverback Asset Management LLC | $22.1 Mil | 4.3% | 45 | New | 13F |
| KADENSA CAPITAL Ltd | $20.7 Mil | 2.9% | 39 | ADD +22.6% | 13F |
| PARUS FINANCE (UK) Ltd | $19.8 Mil | 5.9% | 37 | ADD +15.2% | 13F |
| Mar Vista Investment Partners LLC | $17.6 Mil | 1.8% | 35 | Hold | 13F |
| Halter Ferguson Financial Inc. | $15.6 Mil | 3.4% | 36 | New | 13F |
| Fidelity National Financial, Inc. | $15.3 Mil | 0.6% | 21 | New | 13F |
| Hamilton Capital Partners, LLC | $14.3 Mil | 4.5% | 30 | ADD +27.5% | 13F |
| Coleford Investment Management Ltd. | $13.9 Mil | 3.4% | 24 | Hold | 13F |
| Raub Brock Capital Management LP | $10.7 Mil | 2.7% | 43 | Hold | 13F |
| Melqart Asset Management (UK) Ltd | $10.2 Mil | 1.0% | 41 | TRIM -17.4% | 13F |
| Contrarius Group Holdings Ltd | $10.2 Mil | 0.6% | 47 | TRIM -92.6% | 13F |
| Portman Square Capital LLP | $9.9 Mil | 1.5% | 44 | New | 13F |
ORCL Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Oracle has secured an unprecedented $638 billion in future revenue, primarily for AI infrastructure. This provides a clear, multi-year growth path with fiscal 2027 revenue guided to accelerate to +34%. The primary uncertainty is the execution of a massive $70 billion capital plan, which is currently depressing cash flow but is backed by these contracts.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Hybrid Recurring & Consumption Model(Number of Cloud Customers × Consumption per Customer) + (Installed Base of Licensed Software × Support Renewal Rate & Price) The scaling of the high-growth OCI business to meet contracted demand, layered on top of the highly profitable and stable software support contract base.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests a successful, capital-intensive pivot to a primary AI infrastructure provider is underway.
- Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) reached $638 billion, up 363%.
- Cloud infrastructure (OCI) revenue growth accelerated to 93% year-over-year.
- Management guided fiscal year 2027 total revenue growth to +34%.
- Operating expenses declined -2.3% while revenue grew 17.4%, showing leverage.
PRIMARY RISK
The massive data center build-out, with a planned $70 billion in capital spending for fiscal 2027, could face delays or cost overruns, preventing the conversion of backlog into profitable revenue and straining the balance sheet.
- Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow is negative $23.7 billion.
- Capital expenditure is 82.6% of trailing-twelve-month revenue.
- Net debt increased to $124.3 billion from $92.9 billion a year prior.
- Gross margin fell 4.7 percentage points due to data center ramp-up costs.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) | $638 billion in Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) as of Q4 FY2026 - Accelerating | Oracle's RPO is experiencing explosive, albeit lumpy, growth, driven by massive, multi-billion dollar AI infrastructure contracts. The company added $67 billion in backlog in Q4 alone. This indicates unprecedented demand for future services. |
| Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) Revenue Growth | 93% year-over-year growth in Q4 FY2026 - Accelerating | The consistent, sharp acceleration in OCI revenue growth demonstrates Oracle's success in converting its massive AI-driven backlog into recognized revenue. This is the primary engine of the company's overall growth story. |
| Cloud Applications (OCA) Revenue Growth | 10% year-over-year (Q4 FY2026) | Measures the growth of the company's strategic SaaS business, including Fusion and NetSuite. Stable double-digit growth indicates continued market share gains in core enterprise software. |
Contracted Growth vs. Capital Burn
BULL VIEW
The $638 billion in contracted backlog de-risks the massive investment cycle, providing a visible path to accelerated revenue growth (+34% guided for fiscal 2027) and future profitability.
CORE TENSION
Can the 363% growth in future obligations offset the immediate negative $23.7 billion free cash flow, which prompted a recent -11.0% stock reaction?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the growth story. Management has a strong record of meeting its targets and has provided a detailed, multi-year data center delivery schedule.
BEAR VIEW
The negative $23.7 billion in free cash flow and $70 billion fiscal 2027 capital plan represent an unmanageable cash burn that will lead to execution failures and value destruction.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
9/1/2026 | Salesforce Earnings Report Watch: Peer Salesforce (CRM) is scheduled to report earnings. |
9/7/2026 | Margin Pressure Disappoints Market Watch: Quarterly gross margin trend and any change to full-year profitability guidance. The market is focused on cash burn. |
9/7/2026 | Oracle Next Earnings Watch: Oracle is scheduled to report its next quarterly earnings. |
10/21/2026 | IBM Earnings Report Watch: Peer International Business Machines (IBM) is scheduled to report earnings. |
10/27/2026 | Peer AI Profitability Signals Headwinds Watch: Commentary from Microsoft, Google, and Amazon on the profitability and capital intensity of their AI infrastructure during their earnings calls. |
in the next 90 days | Abilene Data Center Ramp Watch: An additional 35% of capacity at the Abilene, Texas data center is scheduled for delivery. |
at the end of this calendar year | Saline County Network Core Watch: The network core for the Saline County, Michigan data center is scheduled for delivery. |
No set date | Data Center Project Delay Watch: Any announcement of a delay in the delivery timelines for the Abilene, Shackleford, or other named data center projects. |
No set date | Concentrated RPO Conversion Risk Watch: News related to the capital spending plans of major AI developers and hyperscalers, or any specific mention of contract revisions by Oracle. |
October 28 | Oracle Investor Day Watch: Oracle will hold an Investor Day in Las Vegas. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-07-14 | Fusion Agentic Applications Builder Introduced Details: Oracle introduced a new AI-native builder experience, AI Agent Studio, for creating and running agentic applications natively within Oracle Fusion Cloud Applications. | +0.7% $131.54 -> $132.49 |
2026-06-10 | Record Q4 Results and Guidance Update Details: Oracle announced record Q4 results with RPO growing to $638 billion. However, the stock fell 11.0% following the release, which included a mixed guidance update. | -10.5% $205.10 -> $183.46 |
2026-04-24 | Michigan Data Center Financing Announced Details: Partner Related Digital announced financing for a $16 billion Oracle data center project in Saline Township, Michigan, involving Blackstone and PIMCO. | -1.9% $175.67 -> $172.36 |
2026-03-10 | Strong Q3 Results and RPO Growth Details: Oracle reported Q3 results with Remaining Performance Obligations of $553 billion, up 325% year-over-year. The stock reacted positively, rising 8.0% over two days. | +7.6% $150.51 -> $161.99 |
2026-02-10 | AI Agents for Supply Chain Launched Details: Oracle announced new AI agents embedded within its Fusion Cloud Applications to help supply chain professionals improve efficiency and reduce risk. | +0.4% $155.50 -> $156.07 |
2026-01-29 | Life Sciences AI Platform Announced Details: Oracle announced its Life Sciences AI Data Platform, a generative AI-driven analytics platform designed to unite proprietary and public data for life sciences organizations. | -4.8% $171.60 -> $163.44 |
Position Sizing
2% - 4%
REDUCED POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: ORCL trades at roughly 67% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 15% for the S&P 500 (4.5x the market), around the 99th percentile of its own trailing year. A 2% - 4% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
MSFT - Microsoft
Diversified Cloud LeaderMicrosoft offers exposure to AI infrastructure growth via Azure but with a more diversified business model and superior profitability, reflected in its 46.8% operating margin.
AMZN - Amazon.com
Dominant IaaS ProviderAmazon's AWS is the established market leader in cloud infrastructure, with immense scale and a track record of operational excellence, though its growth is currently slower.
Oracle is no longer just a database company; it is a hyperscale cloud provider undergoing a massive, capital-intensive build-out to service a multi-year backlog of AI infrastructure demand.
Oracle has successfully pivoted to become a primary provider of cloud infrastructure for the world's largest AI companies. This is evidenced by a massive $638 billion in Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO), driven by multi-year contracts for AI training and inference capacity. The company is now in a peak investment cycle, spending heavily on data centers, which is depressing free cash flow but is backed by committed customer demand, providing a clear path to significant future revenue and profit growth.
Continued announcements of large, multi-billion dollar OCI contracts, acceleration of cloud revenue growth above guidance, and evidence of improving margins as new data centers reach full utilization.
A significant slowdown in OCI revenue growth, delays in data center build-outs, major AI customers defecting to competitors, or an inability to convert the massive RPO into profitable revenue.
Minor product updates for legacy on-premise software, small services contract wins, or short-term stock price fluctuations unrelated to OCI demand signals.
Repricing Catalyst
The market's increasing recognition of the sheer scale of Oracle's contracted AI infrastructure business, as quantified by the unprecedented growth in its RPO, which provides a visible, multi-year growth trajectory.
Cloud and software
$55.5B TTM (87% of Total)What It Is
Sells a broad spectrum of enterprise applications (ERP, HCM, CX) and infrastructure technologies (OCI, Database, Middleware) to businesses, government agencies, and educational institutions worldwide.
Who Pays & How
Enterprises and organizations pay for access to cloud applications and infrastructure via subscriptions, or purchase software licenses and related support contracts to run their critical business functions and manage data in cloud, on-premise, or hybrid environments.
Competition
Hardware
$3.0B TTM (5% of Total)What It Is
Sells enterprise hardware products including Oracle Engineered Systems, servers, and storage, along with related software and support, primarily through indirect channels like distributors and resellers.
Who Pays & How
Enterprises pay for hardware systems to run their on-premise or hybrid IT environments. Customers generally opt to purchase hardware support contracts for software updates, repairs, and maintenance.
Competition
Services
$5.6B TTM (9% of Total)What It Is
Offers consulting and customer success services to help customers and partners implement and maximize the performance of their investments in Oracle's application and infrastructure technologies.
Who Pays & How
Customers of Oracle's technology products pay for professional services to assist with architecture, deployment, implementation, and integration of their Oracle software and cloud offerings.
Competition
Oracle — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Information Technology Resources |
| TechCrunch |
| Wired |
| CIO |
| MIT Technology Review |
| Gartner Insights |
| Ars Technica |
| Application Software Resources |
| Capterra |
| Software Advice |
| InfoWorld |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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