Micron Technology (MU)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $227.08 | Market Cap: $254.8 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductors
Micron Technology (MU)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $227.08Market Cap: $254.8 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductors
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 49% | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 114%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 121% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 62% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 47%, CFO LTM is 18 Bil | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include AI Chips, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 49% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 47%, CFO LTM is 18 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include AI Chips, Show more. |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 114%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 121% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 62% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MU Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why Micron Technology (MU) stock moved significantly from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025:
1. Strong Fiscal Q4 2025 Earnings and Upbeat Guidance: On September 23, 2025, Micron reported exceptional fiscal fourth-quarter results for 2025, exceeding revenue and EPS estimates. The company posted revenue of $11.32 billion and earnings of $3.03 per share, surpassing consensus estimates of $11.2 billion and $2.86 per share, respectively. For the full fiscal year 2025, revenue increased by 49% to $37.4 billion, with non-GAAP gross margin rising to 41% from 22% in fiscal 2024. Additionally, Micron provided strong guidance for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, projecting higher-than-expected margins, with some analysts noting a forecast exceeding 50%.
2. Surging Demand and Pricing for DRAM and HBM: A significant driver of Micron's performance was the robust demand and favorable pricing environment for DRAM and High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM), particularly from the AI and data center markets. Micron updated its fiscal Q4 2025 guidance on August 11, 2025, citing stronger DRAM pricing and improved operational execution, raising revenue expectations to $11.2 billion and non-GAAP gross margins to 44.5%. Analysts highlighted that DRAM was likely to be in undersupply through 2026, and Micron's HBM revenue grew around 30% sequentially in Q4 2025, approaching an annual run rate of $8 billion. Micron also confirmed in January 2025 that it is a core HBM supplier for NVIDIA's GeForce RTX 50 Blackwell GPUs, solidifying its role in the AI supply chain.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MU Return | 40% | 24% | -46% | 72% | -1% | 170% | 332% |
| Peers Return | 18% | 34% | -27% | 39% | 1% | 105% | 233% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MU Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 42% | 58% | 50% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 57% | 40% | 63% | 48% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MU Max Drawdown | -36% | -12% | -47% | 0% | -7% | -23% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -38% | -5% | -37% | -4% | -13% | -27% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TXN, ADI, STX, WDC, MCHP. See MU Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MU | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -49.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 99.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 528 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -42.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 245 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -53.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 115.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 700 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -88.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 742.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1680 days | 1480 days |
Compare to TXN, ADI, STX, WDC, MCHP
In The Past
Micron Technology's stock fell -49.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/14/2022. A -49.8% loss requires a 99.2% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MU. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| 06302025 | MU | Micron Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 90.3% | 90.3% | -14.8% |
| 12312024 | MU | Micron Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 43.8% | 179.0% | -23.0% |
| 02282023 | MU | Micron Technology | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.8% | 56.2% | -6.8% |
| 08312022 | MU | Micron Technology | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.9% | 24.8% | -13.5% |
| 10312018 | MU | Micron Technology | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.1% | 26.1% | -23.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| 06302025 | MU | Micron Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 90.3% | 90.3% | -14.8% |
| 12312024 | MU | Micron Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 43.8% | 179.0% | -23.0% |
| 02282023 | MU | Micron Technology | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.8% | 56.2% | -6.8% |
| 08312022 | MU | Micron Technology | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.9% | 24.8% | -13.5% |
| 10312018 | MU | Micron Technology | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.1% | 26.1% | -23.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Micron Technology
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 203.38 |
| Mkt Cap | 97.1 |
| Rev LTM | 11,833 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,718 |
| FCF LTM | 1,474 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,217 |
| CFO LTM | 2,927 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,179 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 24.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -1.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 27.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 23.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 15.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 30.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 30.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 97.1 |
| P/S | 6.9 |
| P/EBIT | 27.2 |
| P/E | 27.8 |
| P/CFO | 26.6 |
| Total Yield | 4.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.0% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 28.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 68.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 74.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 199.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 21.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 53.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 65.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 124.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 8312025 | 10032025 | 10-K 8/28/2025 |
| 5312025 | 6262025 | 10-Q 5/29/2025 |
| 2282025 | 3212025 | 10-Q 2/27/2025 |
| 11302024 | 12192024 | 10-Q 11/28/2024 |
| 8312024 | 10042024 | 10-K 8/29/2024 |
| 5312024 | 6272024 | 10-Q 5/30/2024 |
| 2292024 | 3212024 | 10-Q 2/29/2024 |
| 11302023 | 12212023 | 10-Q 11/30/2023 |
| 8312023 | 10062023 | 10-K 8/31/2023 |
| 5312023 | 6292023 | 10-Q 6/1/2023 |
| 2282023 | 3292023 | 10-Q 3/2/2023 |
| 11302022 | 12222022 | 10-Q 12/1/2022 |
| 8312022 | 10072022 | 10-K 9/1/2022 |
| 5312022 | 7012022 | 10-Q 6/2/2022 |
| 2282022 | 3302022 | 10-Q 3/3/2022 |
| 11302021 | 1062022 | 10-Q 12/2/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| FinViz |
