Match (MTCH)
Market Price (11/9/2026): $38.99 | Market Cap: $8.9 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Interactive Media & Services
Match (MTCH)
Market Price (11/9/2026): $38.99Market Cap: $8.9 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Interactive Media & Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, Dividend Yield is 2.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.7%, FCF Yield is 13% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 31% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.0 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Connection & Socialization, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Dating Platforms, and Online Marketplaces. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -14%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -35% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.5% Key risksMTCH key risks include [1] declining user engagement and monetization at its flagship Tinder brand and [2] reputational damage and regulatory costs stemming from user safety incidents on its platforms. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, Dividend Yield is 2.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.7%, FCF Yield is 13% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 31% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.0 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Connection & Socialization, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Dating Platforms, and Online Marketplaces. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -14%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -35% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.5% |
| Key risksMTCH key risks include [1] declining user engagement and monetization at its flagship Tinder brand and [2] reputational damage and regulatory costs stemming from user safety incidents on its platforms. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Updated on 11/3/2026
Match (MTCH) stock has remained largely at the same level since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mixed Fiscal Q2 and Q3 2026 Financial Performance with Revenue Misses. Match Group reported mixed financial results, consistently beating diluted earnings per share (EPS) estimates while missing revenue expectations. In fiscal Q2 2026, the company reported an EPS of $0.70, surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.65, but revenue of $853.1 million missed analyst estimates of $857.8 million and fell 1.2% year-over-year. This trend continued in fiscal Q3 2026, with an EPS of $0.73 exceeding the $0.71 consensus, yet revenue of $891.2 million was slightly below the anticipated $892.45 million and represented a 3% decline year-over-year. These results indicate effective cost management but persistent challenges in top-line growth, leading to a largely neutral stock reaction.
2. Tinder's User Engagement Recovery Counteracted by Overall Payer Declines. A significant positive development was Tinder's global daily active users (DAUs) returning to year-over-year growth in September 2026, marking the first such instance in three and a half years, attributed to product initiatives. Despite this improved user engagement, the company's total payer base continued to contract, declining 6% in fiscal Q2 2026 to 13.3 million and 5% in fiscal Q3 2026 to 13.8 million. This indicates that while engagement is improving, converting these users into paying subscribers remains a challenge. Management's fiscal Q4 2026 revenue guidance further highlighted this, implying a flat to 1% year-over-year decline, suggesting ongoing difficulty in translating user growth into immediate revenue expansion.
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Match (MTCH) stock has remained largely at the same level since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mixed Fiscal Q2 and Q3 2026 Financial Performance with Revenue Misses. Match Group reported mixed financial results, consistently beating diluted earnings per share (EPS) estimates while missing revenue expectations. In fiscal Q2 2026, the company reported an EPS of $0.70, surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.65, but revenue of $853.1 million missed analyst estimates of $857.8 million and fell 1.2% year-over-year. This trend continued in fiscal Q3 2026, with an EPS of $0.73 exceeding the $0.71 consensus, yet revenue of $891.2 million was slightly below the anticipated $892.45 million and represented a 3% decline year-over-year. These results indicate effective cost management but persistent challenges in top-line growth, leading to a largely neutral stock reaction.
2. Tinder's User Engagement Recovery Counteracted by Overall Payer Declines. A significant positive development was Tinder's global daily active users (DAUs) returning to year-over-year growth in September 2026, marking the first such instance in three and a half years, attributed to product initiatives. Despite this improved user engagement, the company's total payer base continued to contract, declining 6% in fiscal Q2 2026 to 13.3 million and 5% in fiscal Q3 2026 to 13.8 million. This indicates that while engagement is improving, converting these users into paying subscribers remains a challenge. Management's fiscal Q4 2026 revenue guidance further highlighted this, implying a flat to 1% year-over-year decline, suggesting ongoing difficulty in translating user growth into immediate revenue expansion.
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Updated on 11/3/2026
Match (MTCH) stock has remained largely at the same level since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mixed Fiscal Q2 and Q3 2026 Financial Performance with Revenue Misses. Match Group reported mixed financial results, consistently beating diluted earnings per share (EPS) estimates while missing revenue expectations. In fiscal Q2 2026, the company reported an EPS of $0.70, surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.65, but revenue of $853.1 million missed analyst estimates of $857.8 million and fell 1.2% year-over-year. This trend continued in fiscal Q3 2026, with an EPS of $0.73 exceeding the $0.71 consensus, yet revenue of $891.2 million was slightly below the anticipated $892.45 million and represented a 3% decline year-over-year. These results indicate effective cost management but persistent challenges in top-line growth, leading to a largely neutral stock reaction.
2. Tinder's User Engagement Recovery Counteracted by Overall Payer Declines. A significant positive development was Tinder's global daily active users (DAUs) returning to year-over-year growth in September 2026, marking the first such instance in three and a half years, attributed to product initiatives. Despite this improved user engagement, the company's total payer base continued to contract, declining 6% in fiscal Q2 2026 to 13.3 million and 5% in fiscal Q3 2026 to 13.8 million. This indicates that while engagement is improving, converting these users into paying subscribers remains a challenge. Management's fiscal Q4 2026 revenue guidance further highlighted this, implying a flat to 1% year-over-year decline, suggesting ongoing difficulty in translating user growth into immediate revenue expansion.
3. Strong Profitability Improvements Offset by Future Revenue & Margin Headwinds. Match Group demonstrated robust profitability, with Adjusted EBITDA surging 14% year-over-year to $331 million in fiscal Q2 2026 and increasing 14% to $344.5 million in fiscal Q3 2026, alongside expanding margins. This operational efficiency was a significant positive for investors. However, this was tempered by anticipated future profitability headwinds, including rising in-app purchase fees from platform partners and a projected one-percentage-point margin headwind in fiscal 2027. Additionally, an €11 million fine from the Irish Data Protection Commission concerning a Tinder inquiry, which Match Group intends to appeal, introduced an element of regulatory uncertainty.
4. Divergent Brand Performance and Neutral Analyst Sentiment. The company experienced varied performance across its brand portfolio, with Hinge consistently delivering strong double-digit user, revenue, and payer growth. In contrast, other segments, such as "Everyone Everywhere" and Match Group Asia, continued to face pressures. This mixed brand performance, coupled with the overall financial outlook, contributed to a divided analyst sentiment. The consensus rating from analysts was generally "Hold" or "Moderate Buy," with average price targets suggesting limited upside from the stock's prevailing levels, reflecting a cautious "wait-and-see" approach as the company navigates its strategy to convert Tinder's user re-engagement into sustainable revenue growth in fiscal 2027.
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Match (MTCH) stock has remained largely at the same level since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mixed Fiscal Q2 and Q3 2026 Financial Performance with Revenue Misses. Match Group reported mixed financial results, consistently beating diluted earnings per share (EPS) estimates while missing revenue expectations. In fiscal Q2 2026, the company reported an EPS of $0.70, surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.65, but revenue of $853.1 million missed analyst estimates of $857.8 million and fell 1.2% year-over-year. This trend continued in fiscal Q3 2026, with an EPS of $0.73 exceeding the $0.71 consensus, yet revenue of $891.2 million was slightly below the anticipated $892.45 million and represented a 3% decline year-over-year. These results indicate effective cost management but persistent challenges in top-line growth, leading to a largely neutral stock reaction.
2. Tinder's User Engagement Recovery Counteracted by Overall Payer Declines. A significant positive development was Tinder's global daily active users (DAUs) returning to year-over-year growth in September 2026, marking the first such instance in three and a half years, attributed to product initiatives. Despite this improved user engagement, the company's total payer base continued to contract, declining 6% in fiscal Q2 2026 to 13.3 million and 5% in fiscal Q3 2026 to 13.8 million. This indicates that while engagement is improving, converting these users into paying subscribers remains a challenge. Management's fiscal Q4 2026 revenue guidance further highlighted this, implying a flat to 1% year-over-year decline, suggesting ongoing difficulty in translating user growth into immediate revenue expansion.
3. Strong Profitability Improvements Offset by Future Revenue & Margin Headwinds. Match Group demonstrated robust profitability, with Adjusted EBITDA surging 14% year-over-year to $331 million in fiscal Q2 2026 and increasing 14% to $344.5 million in fiscal Q3 2026, alongside expanding margins. This operational efficiency was a significant positive for investors. However, this was tempered by anticipated future profitability headwinds, including rising in-app purchase fees from platform partners and a projected one-percentage-point margin headwind in fiscal 2027. Additionally, an €11 million fine from the Irish Data Protection Commission concerning a Tinder inquiry, which Match Group intends to appeal, introduced an element of regulatory uncertainty.
4. Divergent Brand Performance and Neutral Analyst Sentiment. The company experienced varied performance across its brand portfolio, with Hinge consistently delivering strong double-digit user, revenue, and payer growth. In contrast, other segments, such as "Everyone Everywhere" and Match Group Asia, continued to face pressures. This mixed brand performance, coupled with the overall financial outlook, contributed to a divided analyst sentiment. The consensus rating from analysts was generally "Hold" or "Moderate Buy," with average price targets suggesting limited upside from the stock's prevailing levels, reflecting a cautious "wait-and-see" approach as the company navigates its strategy to convert Tinder's user re-engagement into sustainable revenue growth in fiscal 2027.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -0.5% change in MTCH stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/8/2026 was primarily driven by a -10.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 39.21 | 39.03 | -0.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,520 | 3,486 | -1.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 18.8% | 20.7% | 9.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.8 | 12.4 | -10.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 233 | 229 | 1.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -0.5% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MTCH | -0.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | -1.6% | 23.6% |
| Sector (XLC) | -3.2% | 41.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 5.4% change in MTCH stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/8/2026 was primarily driven by a 17.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 37.04 | 39.03 | 5.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,487 | 3,486 | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 17.6% | 20.7% | 17.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.2 | 12.4 | -12.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 235 | 229 | 2.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 5.4% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MTCH | 5.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.6% | 25.8% |
| Sector (XLC) | -9.8% | 48.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 23.4% change in MTCH stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/8/2026 was primarily driven by a 32.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 31.62 | 39.03 | 23.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,451 | 3,486 | 1.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.6% | 20.7% | 32.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.4 | 12.4 | -13.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 244 | 229 | 6.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 23.4% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MTCH | 23.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.7% | 34.8% |
| Sector (XLC) | -7.9% | 45.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 18.1% change in MTCH stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/8/2026 was primarily driven by a 41.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 33.06 | 39.03 | 18.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,212 | 3,486 | 8.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.7% | 20.7% | 41.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 18.5 | 12.4 | -33.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 264 | 229 | 15.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 18.1% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MTCH | 18.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 81.9% | 35.9% |
| Sector (XLC) | 67.1% | 37.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MTCH Return | -13% | -69% | -12% | -10% | 1% | 24% | -73% |
| Peers Return | 25% | -57% | 80% | 79% | 30% | -12% | 98% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MTCH Win Rate | 42% | 17% | 42% | 33% | 50% | 55% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 64% | 25% | 67% | 57% | 58% | 45% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 45% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MTCH Max Drawdown | -30% | -71% | -47% | -25% | -25% | -17% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -19% | -63% | -26% | -22% | -38% | -35% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: PAAI, GOOGL, META, RDDT, MTCH. See MTCH Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/6/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MTCH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 107 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -35.6% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.2% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1031 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -32.4% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.9% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 61 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -37.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 27 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -36.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.0% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 74 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -13.6% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.8% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 8 days | 6 days |
In The Past
Match's stock fell -21.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 26.8% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | MTCH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 107 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -35.6% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.2% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1031 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -32.4% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.9% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 61 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -37.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 27 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -36.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.0% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 74 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -38.1% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.6% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 126 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -38.1% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.6% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 126 days | 15 days |
In The Past
Match's stock fell -21.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 26.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Match (MTCH)
Match Group, Inc. is a global technology company specializing in online dating products and services. Its fundamental business is to connect individuals worldwide seeking romantic relationships, friendships, or companionship through its extensive portfolio of digital platforms.
The company owns and operates many of the most popular dating applications and websites globally. Its flagship brands include Tinder, known for its swipe-based matching; Match, a pioneering subscription-based dating service; and Hinge, which focuses on meaningful connections. Other significant brands like OkCupid, PlentyOfFish, Meetic, Pairs, and OurTime cater to diverse demographics and relationship goals, collectively serving a vast international market of individuals looking for various types of romantic engagements.
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Meta Platforms for dating
Netflix for dating apps
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- Tinder: A popular mobile dating application known for its swipe-based interface to connect users.
- Match: A long-standing online dating service designed to help singles find compatible partners.
- Meetic: A leading European online dating service connecting individuals across various countries.
- OkCupid: An online dating app that utilizes a comprehensive questionnaire to match users based on compatibility.
- Hinge: A dating app focused on fostering serious relationships by encouraging users to connect over shared interests and prompts.
- Pairs: A dating app primarily popular in Asian markets, facilitating connections and relationships.
- PlentyOfFish (PoF): A widely used online dating service that allows users to connect for free.
- OurTime: A specialized dating service catering to singles over the age of 50.
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Match Group, Inc. (MTCH) sells primarily to individuals who use its dating products and services. Based on its diverse portfolio of brands, the company serves various categories of customers:
- Younger Adults and Broad-Appeal Daters: This category includes users of brands like Tinder, Hinge, OkCupid, and PlentyOfFish. These platforms generally cater to a wide age range, predominantly younger adults (20s-30s) but extending into the 40s, seeking a spectrum of connections from casual dating and social interaction to serious relationships.
- Mid-Life Adults and Serious Relationship Seekers: This segment is primarily served by brands such as Match and Meetic. Users in this category are often in their 30s, 40s, and 50s, and typically have a more defined intent towards finding long-term, committed relationships.
- Older Adults and Mature Daters: Specifically addressed by brands like OurTime, this customer category focuses on individuals aged 50 and above who are looking for companionship, friendships, and romantic relationships with peers in their age group.
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- Apple Inc. (AAPL)
- Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)
- Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
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Spencer Rascoff, Chief Executive Officer
Spencer Rascoff was appointed Match Group CEO in February 2025. He is a seasoned entrepreneur and technology leader who co-founded Zillow and served as its CEO for a decade, scaling the company to over 4,500 employees, $3 billion in revenue, and a $10 billion market capitalization. Rascoff also co-founded Hotwire, an online travel marketplace, and Pacaso, a proptech company focused on second-home ownership. He began his career in investment banking at Goldman Sachs and in private equity at TPG Capital. Rascoff has been an active investor and advisor to numerous high-growth technology companies across marketplaces, media, and AI.
Steven Bailey, Chief Financial Officer
Steven Bailey was promoted to Chief Financial Officer of Match Group, effective March 1, 2025. He joined Match Group in 2012 and has held various finance leadership roles within the company, including Senior Vice President, Financial Planning & Business Operations from 2022 to 2025, and CFO, Match Group Americas from 2021 to 2022. Prior to joining Match Group, Bailey held roles at Dow Jones from 2011 to 2012 and Heritage Building Group from 2004 to 2011.
Gary Swidler, President
Gary Swidler assumed the role of President of Match Group on March 1, 2025, transitioning from his previous position as Chief Financial Officer. He joined Match Group in 2015 as CFO, just before the company's IPO in November of that year. Before joining Match Group, Swidler spent 18 years at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, where he held various positions, including Managing Director and Head of the Financial Institutions Investment Banking Group. Earlier in his career, he was an associate at the New York City-based law firm Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz.
Sean Edgett, Chief Legal Officer & Secretary
Sean Edgett was appointed Chief Legal Officer & Secretary of Match Group, effective September 23, 2024. He previously served as Chief Legal Officer & Secretary at UPSIDE Foods from April 2023 to September 2024. Before that, he spent over a decade at Twitter, Inc. (now X), holding various executive legal roles, including Senior Vice President and General Counsel from February 2018 to October 2022. His prior experience also includes being a Director of Legal at NetApp from 2010 to 2012, and practicing law at Latham & Watkins and Akin Gump.
D.V. Williams, Chief People Officer
D.V. Williams was appointed Chief People Officer of Match Group, effective September 13, 2022. In this role, he oversees global people operations, including compensation, benefits, people information systems, diversity, equity, and inclusion, and learning & development. Prior to joining Match Group, Williams served as Chief People Officer at Cars.com, where he led all aspects of human resources and diversity, equity, and inclusion for over three years. Before Cars.com, he led Human Resources, Strategy, and Enabling Functions at Tyson Foods, Inc., where he was involved in strategic initiatives including acquisitions and integrations. He began his career with nearly a decade at Whirlpool Corporation in various human resources roles.
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Here are the key risks to Match Group (MTCH):
- Intense Competition and Challenges in User Growth and Monetization: Match Group operates in a highly competitive online dating market, facing significant pressure from rivals like Bumble. A predominant risk stems from the slowing growth and monetization challenges, particularly with its flagship brand, Tinder, which, along with Hinge, accounts for approximately 94% of the company's operating income. The company has also faced a persistent issue in converting its large base of free users into paying subscribers.
- Data Privacy, Security, and Evolving Regulatory Landscape: As a company that handles vast amounts of personal user data, Match Group is exposed to substantial risks related to data privacy and security. The increasing scrutiny from regulatory bodies and the introduction of new age-verification laws in various regions are creating a complex compliance environment and heightening concerns about data security and potential legal liabilities.
- Financial Health and Capital Structure Concerns: Several financial indicators suggest potential risks to Match Group's financial health. These include a low Altman Z-Score, which can signal financial distress, and a balance sheet that is more leveraged compared to some of its peers. The company has also reported negative equity and tangible book value, partly due to aggressive share buybacks, and has experienced sluggish earnings and revenue growth, leading some to question its valuation and long-term financial stability.
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The rise of advanced generative AI models capable of creating sophisticated AI companions presents an emerging threat. These AI companions offer personalized and engaging interactions, potentially fulfilling emotional and social needs for some individuals that might otherwise lead them to seek connections through traditional dating apps. This new form of digital companionship could subtly reduce the addressable market for human-to-human dating services by providing an alternative outlet for connection and interaction.
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Match Group's addressable market is the global online dating market. This market was valued at approximately USD 10.28 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to about USD 19.33 billion by 2033, expanding at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.27% from 2025 to 2033.
Other estimates for the global online dating market size include:
- USD 5.64 billion in 2025, predicted to increase to approximately USD 11.27 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 8.00% from 2025 to 2034.
- USD 8.80 billion in 2024, projected to reach USD 30.08 billion by 2035, representing a CAGR of 11.82% during the forecast period of 2024-2035.
- USD 9.60 billion in 2025, with a projection to grow to approximately USD 19.50 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 7.5% to 8.0% from 2026 to 2034.
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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Match Group (MTCH) over the next 2-3 years:
- Continued Growth and International Expansion of Hinge: Hinge is consistently highlighted as a strong performer within Match Group's portfolio, with expectations for continued robust direct revenue growth. The brand is on track to achieve $1 billion in revenue by 2027 and is actively expanding its international presence, particularly in European markets, Mexico, Brazil, and India.
- Tinder's Turnaround Driven by Product Innovation and Increased Marketing: While Tinder has experienced revenue declines, Match Group is focused on a strategic turnaround through significant product innovation, user experience improvements, and increased marketing spend. Initiatives include enhancing recommendation algorithms, implementing features like "DoubleDate" and "FaceCheck," and focusing on improving engagement quality, new registrations, and monthly active user (MAU) trends, especially among Gen Z users.
- Monetization Optimizations and Increased Revenue Per Payer (RPP): Match Group has demonstrated an ability to increase Revenue Per Payer (RPP). This is expected to continue through various monetization optimizations, new feature introductions, and the strategic use of AI to improve relevance and matching. These efforts aim to enhance the user experience and drive higher engagement, which in turn can lead to increased subscriber value.
- Growth from Emerging and Asia-Focused Brands: Beyond Tinder and Hinge, Match Group anticipates positive revenue growth from its "Emerging" brands and has noted the potential for double-digit revenue growth from Azar. Match Group Asia has also shown an increase in payers in certain areas, indicating growth opportunities in these markets through continued product development and localized strategies.
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Share Repurchases
- Match Group's Board of Directors authorized the repurchase of up to an additional $1.5 billion in shares, effective once the existing authorization, which had $247 million remaining, is exhausted.
- In the full year 2025, Match Group repurchased 24.7 million shares of its common stock for a total of $789 million.
- As of January 31, 2026, $959 million in aggregate value of shares remained available under the company's share repurchase program.
Share Issuance
- In 2021, Match Group completed the acquisition of Hyperconnect for $1.725 billion, with 50% of the transaction funded by the issuance of 5.9 million shares of Match Group common stock.
- The company's stock-based compensation, which typically leads to share issuance, was $204 million in 2022, $232 million in 2023, and $267 million in 2024.
- Despite issuances, Match Group has seen a decline in its shares outstanding over the last few years, with 0.27 billion in 2023, 0.25 billion in 2024, and 0.23 billion in 2025.
Outbound Investments
- In June 2021, Match Group acquired Hyperconnect, a social discovery and video technology company, for $1.725 billion.
- Match Group made several other acquisitions, including The League in July 2022, The Fresh New Group in October 2022, Salams in April 2025, and Her (a lesbian dating app) in May 2025.
- The company's strategy involves acquiring rising competitors to integrate them into its ecosystem.
Capital Expenditures
- Match Group's capital expenditures for the fiscal year ending December 2025 amounted to $56.765 million.
- Average capital expenditures for the fiscal years 2021 to 2025 were approximately $60.77 million.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures includes technological innovation, refining algorithms, enhancing user interfaces, and investing in AI-driven product innovation and trust-and-safety features.
Peer Outperformance in Interactive Media & Services
MTCH has trailed 53% of its 32 Interactive Media & Services peers over 5Y. Among the peers that beat it is CARG. Interactive Media & Services ranks 5th of 9 industries in Communication Services by median 5Y return. The sector’s gains have largely come from elsewhere.
Share of Interactive Media & Services constituents that MTCH has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
90%
of 41 industry peers · 21.4% return
3Y
83%
of 35 industry peers · 41.4% return
5Y
47%
of 32 industry peers · -73.8% return
Interactive Media & Services peers with revenue growth within 4pp of MTCH's that beat it on at least 2 of 3 windows, and by at least 20pp over 5Y. Growth is matched by construction, so the gap is largely a re-rating gap. The multiple column is the context for it.
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTCH | Match | 2.0% | 12.4x | 21.4% | 41.4% | -73.8% | — |
| CARG | CarGurus | 4.0% | 16.3x | 1.2% | 80.0% | -6.0% | +68pp |
Price returns, excluding dividends. P/E shown for context only and not used for matching.
Median price return by industry across the Communication Services sector, ranked by 5Y. Interactive Media & Services is MTCH's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wireless Telecommunication Services | 3 | -10.4% | 16.0% | 41.0% | ECHO 263% · TMUS 41% |
| Publishing | 6 | 25.1% | 15.7% | 9.6% | NYT 46% · NWSA 15% · WLY 12% |
| Integrated Telecommunication Services | 21 | -13.2% | 19.4% | -23.9% | GSAT 241% · AD 101% · TDS 91% |
| Movies & Entertainment | 22 | 11.6% | 45.7% | -29.7% | IMAX 129% · FWONA 94% · CNK 83% |
| Interactive Media & Services ← | 33 | -35.8% | -40.2% | -70.8% | GOOGL 93% · META 82% · CARG -6% |
| Broadcasting | 14 | -15.1% | -20.5% | -71.1% | FOXA 75% · NXST 33% · SIRI -39% |
| Alternative Carriers | 4 | -40.8% | 16.3% | -73.0% | IRDM 9% · LUMN -69% |
| Interactive Home Entertainment | 8 | -43.6% | -61.5% | -73.5% | TTWO 16% · RBLX -36% · PINS -59% |
| Advertising | 18 | -36.2% | -11.9% | -74.6% | APP 293% · OMC 50% · STGW 15% |
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are limited to companies above $2B market cap.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 95.32 |
| Mkt Cap | 789.7 |
| Rev LTM | 3,486 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,082 |
| FCF LTM | 1,198 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 999 |
| CFO LTM | 1,209 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,059 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 22.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 16.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 24.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.7% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 28.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 32.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 31.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 27.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 38.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 30.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 789.7 |
| P/S | 6.2 |
| P/Op Inc | 19.9 |
| P/EBIT | 15.6 |
| P/E | 16.7 |
| P/CFO | 13.5 |
| Total Yield | 6.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.3% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -14.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -4.4% |
| 6M Rtn | -4.4% |
| 12M Rtn | -1.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 89.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -13.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 0.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -4.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -12.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 14.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tinder | 1,925 | 1,991 | 1,964 | 1,842 | |
| Hinge | 691 | 550 | 396 | 284 | |
| Evergreen & Emerging | 608 | 654 | 701 | 741 | |
| Match Group ( MG) Asia | 268 | 285 | 303 | 322 | |
| Eliminations | -5 | -1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Connections | 2,983 | ||||
| Total | 3,487 | 3,479 | 3,365 | 3,189 | 2,983 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tinder | 833 | 889 | 956 | 956 | |
| Hinge | 166 | 121 | 74 | 79 | |
| Evergreen & Emerging | 63 | 66 | 82 | 36 | |
| Match Group ( MG) Asia | 6 | -32 | -9 | -312 | |
| Corporate and unallocated costs | -196 | -221 | -187 | -244 | |
| ANGI Homeservices | 39 | ||||
| Applications | 114 | ||||
| Corporate | -184 | ||||
| Dotdash | 29 | ||||
| Emerging & Other | -13 | ||||
| Match Group | 649 | ||||
| Vimeo | -52 | ||||
| Total | 873 | 823 | 917 | 515 | 581 |
| $ Mil | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corporate | 2,114 | 1,058 | 1,010 | 1,491 | 1,251 |
| Match Group | 1,919 | 2,007 | 2,040 | 1,915 | |
| ANGI Homeservices | 1,765 | 1,415 | 279 | ||
| Applications | 725 | 861 | 619 | 625 | |
| Vimeo | 121 | ||||
| Emerging & Other | 108 | ||||
| Deferred tax assets | 65 | 66 | |||
| Dotdash | 58 | ||||
| Publishing | 207 | 436 | 736 | ||
| Video | 254 | 261 | 111 | ||
| HomeAdvisor | 189 | ||||
| Other | 143 | ||||
| Match | 1,304 | ||||
| Media | 102 | ||||
| Search & Applications | 1,372 | ||||
| eCommerce | 245 | ||||
| Total | 6,875 | 5,868 | 4,646 | 5,210 | 4,275 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $39.03 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 9.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 11/19/2015 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -16.1% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $41.97 | $36.46 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -7.0% | 7.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 36.3% | 33.8% |
| Downside Capture | -11.69 | 82.38 |
| Upside Capture | 24.80 | 96.16 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 19.4% | 34.8% |
MTCH Betas & Captures as of 10/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.77 | 0.55 | 0.65 | 0.68 | 0.90 | 0.87 |
| Up Beta | -4.32 | -0.98 | 0.21 | 0.80 | 0.87 | 0.82 |
| Down Beta | 2.57 | 1.66 | 0.53 | 0.45 | 0.64 | 0.84 |
| Up Capture | 63% | 51% | 91% | 75% | 116% | 61% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 23 | 36 | 67 | 132 | 381 |
| Down Capture | 2% | 30% | 67% | 71% | 93% | 99% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 20 | 28 | 59 | 118 | 367 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MTCH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTCH | 20.3% | 33.8% | 0.58 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | -6.8% | 16.6% | -0.61 | 45.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 9.5% | 13.6% | 0.40 | 34.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 1.6% | 28.7% | 0.05 | 1.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 38.4% | 21.2% | 1.42 | -22.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.3% | 14.2% | 0.51 | 33.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -27.2% | 43.6% | -0.61 | 14.7% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MTCH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTCH | -23.0% | 43.9% | -0.46 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 6.5% | 21.1% | 0.22 | 54.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.3% | 17.3% | 0.48 | 50.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.5% | 19.1% | 0.74 | 5.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.1% | 19.6% | 0.30 | 3.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.3% | 18.9% | -0.04 | 43.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.0% | 51.6% | 0.26 | 24.3% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MTCH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTCH | 12.0% | 46.8% | 0.41 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 8.5% | 22.1% | 0.42 | 49.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.0% | 18.0% | 0.70 | 44.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.9% | 16.5% | 0.59 | 5.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 18.1% | 0.33 | 9.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.9% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 35.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.0% | 66.3% | 1.00 | 13.6% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 11/5/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/2/2026 | -8.5% | ||
| 8/4/2026 | -7.5% | -10.8% | 2.9% |
| 5/5/2026 | 0.9% | -6.1% | -7.7% |
| 2/3/2026 | 5.9% | 12.4% | 8.3% |
| 11/4/2025 | 5.2% | 4.4% | 9.4% |
| 8/5/2025 | 10.5% | 8.0% | 10.9% |
| 5/8/2025 | -9.6% | -3.2% | 4.8% |
| 2/4/2025 | -7.9% | -7.0% | -14.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 11 | 11 |
| # Negative | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 5.0% | 4.7% | 8.3% |
| Median Negative | -7.9% | -10.3% | -10.3% |
| Max Positive | 13.2% | 12.4% | 13.8% |
| Max Negative | -17.9% | -18.8% | -26.3% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/2/2026 | -8.5% | ||
| 8/4/2026 | -7.5% | -10.8% | 2.9% |
| 5/5/2026 | 0.9% | -6.1% | -7.7% |
| 2/3/2026 | 5.9% | 12.4% | 8.3% |
| 11/4/2025 | 5.2% | 4.4% | 9.4% |
| 8/5/2025 | 10.5% | 8.0% | 10.9% |
| 5/8/2025 | -9.6% | -3.2% | 4.8% |
| 2/4/2025 | -7.9% | -7.0% | -14.1% |
| 11/6/2024 | -17.9% | -18.8% | -13.1% |
| 7/30/2024 | 13.2% | 5.9% | 9.1% |
| 5/7/2024 | -5.4% | 1.4% | 3.8% |
| 1/30/2024 | 1.7% | -4.5% | -4.5% |
| 10/31/2023 | -15.3% | -13.3% | -6.4% |
| 8/1/2023 | -0.9% | -2.9% | 0.1% |
| 1/31/2023 | -5.0% | -9.8% | -22.9% |
| 11/1/2022 | 4.2% | 0.5% | 13.8% |
| 8/2/2022 | -17.6% | -15.9% | -26.3% |
| 5/3/2022 | 6.2% | -11.1% | 6.5% |
| 2/1/2022 | 5.3% | 0.3% | -8.1% |
| 11/2/2021 | 3.0% | 4.7% | -13.6% |
| 8/3/2021 | -5.0% | -12.3% | -12.5% |
| 5/4/2021 | 3.4% | 5.4% | -1.5% |
| 2/2/2021 | -8.0% | 5.8% | -4.3% |
| 11/4/2020 | 4.9% | 3.7% | 13.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 11 | 11 |
| # Negative | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 5.0% | 4.7% | 8.3% |
| Median Negative | -7.9% | -10.3% | -10.3% |
| Max Positive | 13.2% | 12.4% | 13.8% |
| Max Negative | -17.9% | -18.8% | -26.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/03/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/23/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/03/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/23/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/06/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/24/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/08/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/06/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/07/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/25/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/10/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/08/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/28/2020 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 11/3/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 11/2/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2027 Dividends | Reported | 0.2 | ||||||
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Total Revenue | Reported | 885.00 Mil | 890.00 Mil | 895.00 Mil | 4.1% | Higher New | Guidance: 855.00 Mil for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 330.00 Mil | 332.50 Mil | 335.00 Mil | 1.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 327.50 Mil for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | Reported | 37.0% | -1.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 38.0% for Q2 2026 | |||
| 2027 Hinge Revenue | Reported | 1.00 Bil | ||||||
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Revenue | Reported | 850.00 Mil | 855.00 Mil | 860.00 Mil | 0 | Same New | Guidance: 855.00 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 325.00 Mil | 327.50 Mil | 330.00 Mil | 3.1% | Higher New | Guidance: 317.50 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | Reported | 38.0% | 1.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 37.0% for Q1 2026 | |||
| Q2 2026 Net Income | Reported | 160.00 Mil | 162.50 Mil | 165.00 Mil | ||||
| Q2 2026 Net Income Margin | Reported | 19.0% | ||||||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/3/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Total Revenue | Reported | 850.00 Mil | 855.00 Mil | 860.00 Mil | -1.7% | Lower New | Guidance: 870.00 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 315.00 Mil | 317.50 Mil | 320.00 Mil | -9.9% | Lower New | Guidance: 352.50 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | Reported | 37.0% | -4.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 41.0% for Q4 2025 | |||
| 2026 Total Revenue | Reported | 3.41 Bil | 3.47 Bil | 3.54 Bil | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 1.28 Bil | 1.30 Bil | 1.32 Bil | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | Reported | 37.5% | ||||||
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | Reported | 1.08 Bil | 1.11 Bil | 1.14 Bil | ||||
Insider Activity
Updated 10/22/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | McDaniel, Ann | Direct | Sell | 9032026 | 42.43 | 3,531 | 149,811 | 1,138,709 | Form | |
| 2 | Eigenmann, Philip D | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 8282026 | 41.70 | 15,000 | 625,498 | 808,519 | Form |
| 3 | Bailey, Stephen | Direct | Sell | 8282026 | 42.26 | 4,760 | 201,172 | 496,253 | Form | |
| 4 | Schiffman, Glenn | Direct | Buy | 8132026 | 36.63 | 3,000 | 109,890 | 2,064,833 | Form | |
| 5 | Brenner, Melissa Anne | Direct | Sell | 5082026 | 35.94 | 5,141 | 184,761 | 582,855 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | McDaniel, Ann | Direct | Sell | 9032026 | 42.43 | 3,531 | 149,811 | 1,138,709 | Form | |
| 2 | Eigenmann, Philip D | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 8282026 | 41.70 | 15,000 | 625,498 | 808,519 | Form |
| 3 | Bailey, Stephen | Direct | Sell | 8282026 | 42.26 | 4,760 | 201,172 | 496,253 | Form | |
| 4 | Schiffman, Glenn | Direct | Buy | 8132026 | 36.63 | 3,000 | 109,890 | 2,064,833 | Form | |
| 5 | Brenner, Melissa Anne | Direct | Sell | 5082026 | 35.94 | 5,141 | 184,761 | 582,855 | Form | |
| 6 | Hosseini, Hesam | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 3062026 | 30.13 | 59,013 | Form | ||
| 7 | Rascoff, Spencer M | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 11202025 | 31.84 | 14,000 | 445,691 | 5,256,866 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 9, 202613F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)
Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
MTCH Trade Sentinel
Stock Conviction
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is constructive based on the pivotal turnaround in Tinder's user engagement, which saw daily active users return to growth in September. While overall revenue has not yet inflected, management has a strong execution record and has guided for Tinder's revenue to grow in 2027. This potential re-acceleration is balanced by known margin pressure from app store fees.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Consumer Subscription (Freemium)Direct Revenue = Total Payers × Revenue Per Payer (RPP) Operating leverage at the Tinder segment, which is the company's largest and most profitable brand.
Looking for high-conviction positions with a better risk/reward profile? See what's currently in the
Trefis High Quality Portfolio.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests a turnaround is taking hold, with leading user metrics inflecting positively after a multi-year decline.
Mechanism:
As product improvements translate user growth into payer growth, Tinder's high operating margins should drive significant profit expansion, further enhanced by a 9.8% total shareholder yield from buybacks and dividends.
Supporting Evidence:
- Tinder daily active users returned to YoY growth in September.
- Hinge direct revenue grew 19% in Q3, driven by 23% payer growth.
- Trailing-twelve-month operating margin expanded 6.7 percentage points to 31%.
- The company has a total shareholder yield of 9.8%.
PRIMARY RISK
Structural pressure from app store fee increases and a rapid 20% revenue decline in the legacy Everyone Everywhere segment could overwhelm the recovery at Tinder and continued growth at Hinge.
Mechanism:
A stall in Tinder's user-to-payer conversion would confirm the turnaround has failed.
Supporting Evidence:
- A one-point headwind to adjusted EBITDA margin is expected in 2027.
- The Everyone Everywhere segment's revenue declined 20% in Q3 2026.
- Total payers across all brands declined year-over-year.
- Hinge's revenue per payer fell 3% due to testing lower-priced tiers.
Key KPI Watchlist
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Tinder User Growth (DAU/MAU) | Tinder Daily Active Users (DAU) returned to year-over-year growth in September 2026. - Turning around | The turnaround in Tinder's user growth is a critical milestone, as management has explicitly stated this is the foundation for future revenue recovery. The improvement is attributed to a series of product enhancements focused on improving user outcomes, particularly for women. The inflection of DAU to positive growth is a key leading indicator that the turnaround strategy is gaining traction. |
| Total Payers | 13.5 million Total Payers for the quarter ended September 10, 2026. - Stagnant | The decline in Total Payers is a drag on overall revenue growth and is primarily driven by a steep 23% drop in the 'Everyone Everywhere' segment. This weakness masks strong 23% payer growth at Hinge and a moderating 4% decline at the core Tinder brand. The overall trend is stabilizing but has not yet returned to growth. |
| Total Revenue Per Payer (RPP) | (Q3 2026) | The average monthly revenue earned from a paying user, reflecting overall monetization effectiveness and pricing mix. |
| Tinder Daily Active Users (DAU) | Returned to year-over-year growth (September 2026) | A key measure of user engagement and ecosystem health for the company's largest brand. A return to growth after a multi-year decline is a critical leading indicator for the success of its turnaround strategy. |
| Tinder Sparks and Sparks Coverage | Strongest quarterly Y/Y performance since tracking began (Q3 2026) | Sparks (six-way conversations) and Sparks Coverage (percentage of users getting a Spark) are proxies for real connection and product efficacy. Strong performance indicates product improvements are resonating with users. |
Core Investment Debate
Tinder's Green Shoots vs. Margin Headwinds
BULL VIEW
Bulls believe the return to user growth at Tinder is the critical leading indicator of a successful turnaround that will convert to revenue growth in 2027, as guided by a highly credible management team.
CORE TENSION
Can Tinder's user recovery, with DAUs now growing, translate to revenue fast enough to offset a 20% decline in legacy brands and a one-point 2027 margin headwind?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH
The latest evidence—Tinder's daily active user growth in September—favors the bull case, but the thesis remains unproven until monetization follows.
BEAR VIEW
Bears contend the user growth is a head fake that won't monetize, and that the market is correctly focused on a confirmed one-point margin hit in 2027 and a 20% revenue decline in the legacy portfolio.
Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
11/9/2026 | Peer Earnings Report Watch: Peer Paradium.AI (PAAI) is scheduled to report earnings. |
Q4 | Hinge Subscription Launch Watch: Hinge plans to roll out a new lower-priced subscription tier more broadly. |
1/26/2027 | Peer Earnings Report Watch: Peer Meta Platforms (META) is scheduled to report earnings. |
2/1/2027 | Persistent Legacy Drag Watch: E&E segment revenue and payer trends in the Q4 earnings report to gauge the depth of the decline. |
2/1/2027 | Company Earnings Report Watch: Match Group is scheduled to report Q4 2026 earnings. |
the first quarter of 2027 | App Store Margin Hit Watch: Quantification of the 2027 margin impact and any mitigation strategies in the Q4 earnings report and guidance. |
No set date | Tinder Turnaround Stalls Watch: Tinder's MAU and Payer growth figures in the next earnings report. A stall or reversal in the rate of improvement. |
February | Full-Year Guidance Update Watch: Management will provide detailed Adjusted EBITDA guidance and a full year margin target for 2027. |
February 23rd | Tinder Investor Event Watch: The company will host its second Tinder Sparks event in New York. |
Key Events in Last 6 Months
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-11-02 | Q3 Results Reported Details: Match Group announced Q3 results, with the stock reacting negatively with a -7.0% two-day change around the earnings call dated November 2, 2026 (DRAW-1). | -7.0% $41.41 -> $38.50 |
2026-11-02 | Tinder US DAU Returns to Growth Details: A news report noted that Tinder's U.S. daily active users returned to growth in October, a key milestone for the brand's turnaround. | -7.0% $41.41 -> $38.50 |
2026-11-02 | Tinder Global DAU Returns to Growth Details: In its Q3 earnings release, the company announced that Tinder's global daily active users returned to year-over-year growth in September for the first time in three and a half years. | -7.0% $41.41 -> $38.50 |
2026-08-04 | Q2 Results Show Turnaround Momentum Details: Match Group announced Q2 results, noting that Tinder's year-over-year DAU and MAU trends improved as the turnaround gained momentum. The stock reacted -6.0% around the August 4th call (DRAW-1). | -5.9% $40.34 -> $37.96 |
2026-07-23 | Analyst Notes Cautious Outlook Details: A press report in July noted that while Tinder was showing tentative signs of improving user trends, it remained too early to call a turnaround. | -0.3% $37.84 -> $37.72 |
2026-05-05 | Q1 Results Show Early Turnaround Details: The company announced Q1 results, highlighting that Tinder registrations returned to year-over-year growth in March, the first increase in nearly two years. | -0.4% $37.78 -> $37.61 |
Risk Management
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: MTCH trades at roughly 35% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 10% for the S&P 500 (3.6x the market). A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
META - Meta Platforms
Scale & Social DiscoveryMeta Platforms offers exposure to social discovery at a vastly larger scale, with a user base and resources that are orders of magnitude greater than Match Group's. Its revenue growth of 27.5% is substantially higher.
Core Thesis: Invest in the dominant global social network that can leverage its massive user footprint to compete in adjacent categories like dating.
GOOGL - Alphabet
Platform OwnershipAlphabet owns the Google Play Store, one of the two critical distribution platforms Match Group depends on. This provides a more foundational position in the mobile ecosystem, capturing a share of the value created by all app developers.
Core Thesis: Invest in the owner of a critical 'gatekeeper' platform that benefits from the growth of the entire mobile application economy.
How Is The Market Pricing MTCH?
A portfolio of digital dating brands anchored by a turnaround story at its largest asset, Tinder, with high-growth Hinge acting as a secondary engine against a backdrop of declining legacy brands.
Match Group's investment case hinges on the revitalization of its core Tinder brand. After years of decline, key user engagement metrics like Daily Active Users have returned to growth, providing early evidence that product improvements are working. While this user turnaround has not yet translated to revenue growth, management is confident it will in 2027. Meanwhile, the Hinge brand continues its rapid expansion, providing a crucial secondary growth driver. The primary challenge is converting Tinder's renewed engagement into sustainable revenue while managing declines in the legacy 'Everyone Everywhere' segment.
What will confirm the thesis
Continued positive year-over-year growth in Tinder's Daily and Monthly Active Users, a return to positive payer growth at Tinder, and Hinge maintaining double-digit revenue growth.
What will damage the thesis
A stall or reversal in Tinder's user engagement trends, failure to translate engagement into payer and revenue growth in 2027, or a faster-than-expected deceleration in Hinge's growth.
Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis
Quarterly fluctuations in Hinge's Revenue Per Payer (RPP) due to the testing of new, lower-priced subscription tiers aimed at driving user conversion.
Repricing Catalyst
Sustained evidence that the Tinder turnaround is durable, leading to a return to positive, sustainable revenue growth for the segment in 2027.
What MTCH Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on fiscal year 2025 filings (the latest reported segment data)
Tinder
$1.9B TTM (55% of Total) · 43% MarginWhat It Is
A mobile dating application emphasizing low-pressure discovery, primarily for users aged 18 to 30, through its patented Swipe technology.
Who Pays & How
Users pay for premium subscription tiers (Tinder Plus, Gold, Platinum) or à la carte features (Super Likes, Boosts) to access benefits like unlimited 'Swipe Right' actions or the ability to see who has liked their profile, increasing their chances of making a connection.
Freemium model with multiple tiers of recurring subscriptions and pay-per-use (à la carte) features.
Competition
Social media platforms such as Facebook and Instagram (both owned by Meta), Snap, and TikTok.
Larger social media companies have massive existing user bases and greater resources for promotion and marketing.
A well-known brand with significant scale and a focus on low-pressure discovery. The company's broader portfolio is also an advantage as users often use multiple services.
Hinge
$691M TTM (20% of Total) · 24% MarginWhat It Is
A mobile-only dating application for individuals seeking intentional, relationship-oriented connections, primarily in English-speaking countries and other international markets.
Who Pays & How
Users with a higher level of intent to enter a relationship pay for premium subscription offerings (Hinge+ and HingeX) to access features that help them find a partner. The brand's goal is for users to delete the app after finding a relationship.
Freemium model with two premium subscription offerings.
Competition
Social media platforms and other online dating services.
Larger platforms have greater scale and resources.
A strong brand focused on users with high intent for serious relationships, which differentiates it from more casual apps. The company's broader portfolio is also an advantage.
MTCH Evolution: Price Return by Era
1995-2012 · Legacy and Portfolio Building
The company helped create the online dating category with the launch of Match in 1995. It built a portfolio of 'Evergreen' brands like Meetic and Plenty of Fish to serve users with high intent for serious relationships.
2012-Present · The Rise of Tinder
Tinder, launched in 2012, rapidly achieved scale and became the company's largest brand by emphasizing low-pressure discovery for a younger demographic. Hinge, also launched in 2012, emerged as a key brand for intentional, relationship-oriented connections.
2025-2026 · Portfolio Reorganization and Turnaround
+26%
Facing user declines at Tinder and legacy brands, the company initiated a turnaround focused on improving user outcomes. It also reorganized its segments, combining its Evergreen, Emerging, and Asia businesses into a single 'Everyone Everywhere' unit to operate more efficiently as 'One MG'.
Market Is In Wait-and-See Mode
Price structure is neutral. The price is in a holding pattern with no clear directional commitment from the moving average stack. Relative to SPY: Strong 63D outperformance but 'relative strength' momentum is fading, indicating that money rotation may be maturing. Volume and momentum show mild distribution. The selling pressure is present but not overwhelming. Earnings history is neutral. The market reaction and subsequent drift do not give a clear directional signal.
① Structure
0
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
-1
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
0
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
-1 / 12
1
Price Structure & Trend
Potential Bottoming · -
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2
Momentum
Pausing
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3
Relative Strength vs. SPY
Mild Outperformance
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4
Institutional Footprint & Volume
Mild Distribution
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5
Volatility
Expanded
▾
6
Key Price Levels
Range · Vol Rising
▾
7
Earnings Reaction History
Emerging Resilience
▾
8
How the Verdict Is Derived
Three Pillars
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Industry Resources
| Communication Services Resources |
| Variety |
| The Hollywood Reporter |
| Adweek |
| Interactive Media & Services Resources |
| Social Media Today |
| Search Engine Land |
| Nieman Journalism Lab |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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Core Cache Last Updated: 11/8/2026