Match (MTCH)
Market Price (8/10/2026): $37.4 | Market Cap: $8.7 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Interactive Media & Services
Match (MTCH)
Market Price (8/10/2026): $37.4Market Cap: $8.7 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Interactive Media & Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, Dividend Yield is 2.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.8%, FCF Yield is 13% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 30% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.2 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Connection & Socialization, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Dating Platforms, and Online Marketplaces. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -39%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -87% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.2% Key risksMTCH key risks include [1] declining user engagement and monetization at its flagship Tinder brand and [2] reputational damage and regulatory costs stemming from user safety incidents on its platforms. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, Dividend Yield is 2.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.8%, FCF Yield is 13% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 30% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.2 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Connection & Socialization, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Dating Platforms, and Online Marketplaces. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -39%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -87% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.2% |
| Key risksMTCH key risks include [1] declining user engagement and monetization at its flagship Tinder brand and [2] reputational damage and regulatory costs stemming from user safety incidents on its platforms. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Updated on 8/5/2026
Match (MTCH) stock has remained largely at the same level since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mixed Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Report presented a balanced outlook for investors. While Match Group surpassed analyst expectations for earnings per share (EPS) in its fiscal Q2 2026, reporting $0.70 EPS against a consensus estimate of $0.65, its revenue performance was less robust. The company reported revenue of $853.11 million, which fell short of analyst estimates of $857.77 million and represented a 1.2% year-over-year decline. Furthermore, the guidance provided for fiscal Q3 2026 indicated an expected revenue decrease of 2% to 3% year-over-year, despite an anticipated 10% year-over-year increase in Adjusted EBITDA at the midpoint, leading to a market reaction that tempered significant stock movement.
2. Divergent Performance of Key Brands led to offsetting impacts. During fiscal Q2 2026 (which ended June 30, 2026), Match Group experienced varied results across its primary dating applications. Tinder demonstrated improving user engagement, with year-over-year declines in daily active users (DAUs) narrowing to 4%, marking its best performance in ten quarters. Conversely, Hinge continued its strong growth trajectory, achieving a 22% year-over-year increase in revenue and a 13% year-over-year rise in global monthly active users (MAUs), significantly bolstered by international expansion. This combination of stabilizing trends in Tinder and robust growth in Hinge likely created a neutral effect on the overall stock price, preventing a substantial shift in either direction.
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Match (MTCH) stock has remained largely at the same level since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mixed Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Report presented a balanced outlook for investors. While Match Group surpassed analyst expectations for earnings per share (EPS) in its fiscal Q2 2026, reporting $0.70 EPS against a consensus estimate of $0.65, its revenue performance was less robust. The company reported revenue of $853.11 million, which fell short of analyst estimates of $857.77 million and represented a 1.2% year-over-year decline. Furthermore, the guidance provided for fiscal Q3 2026 indicated an expected revenue decrease of 2% to 3% year-over-year, despite an anticipated 10% year-over-year increase in Adjusted EBITDA at the midpoint, leading to a market reaction that tempered significant stock movement.
2. Divergent Performance of Key Brands led to offsetting impacts. During fiscal Q2 2026 (which ended June 30, 2026), Match Group experienced varied results across its primary dating applications. Tinder demonstrated improving user engagement, with year-over-year declines in daily active users (DAUs) narrowing to 4%, marking its best performance in ten quarters. Conversely, Hinge continued its strong growth trajectory, achieving a 22% year-over-year increase in revenue and a 13% year-over-year rise in global monthly active users (MAUs), significantly bolstered by international expansion. This combination of stabilizing trends in Tinder and robust growth in Hinge likely created a neutral effect on the overall stock price, preventing a substantial shift in either direction.
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Updated on 8/5/2026
Match (MTCH) stock has remained largely at the same level since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mixed Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Report presented a balanced outlook for investors. While Match Group surpassed analyst expectations for earnings per share (EPS) in its fiscal Q2 2026, reporting $0.70 EPS against a consensus estimate of $0.65, its revenue performance was less robust. The company reported revenue of $853.11 million, which fell short of analyst estimates of $857.77 million and represented a 1.2% year-over-year decline. Furthermore, the guidance provided for fiscal Q3 2026 indicated an expected revenue decrease of 2% to 3% year-over-year, despite an anticipated 10% year-over-year increase in Adjusted EBITDA at the midpoint, leading to a market reaction that tempered significant stock movement.
2. Divergent Performance of Key Brands led to offsetting impacts. During fiscal Q2 2026 (which ended June 30, 2026), Match Group experienced varied results across its primary dating applications. Tinder demonstrated improving user engagement, with year-over-year declines in daily active users (DAUs) narrowing to 4%, marking its best performance in ten quarters. Conversely, Hinge continued its strong growth trajectory, achieving a 22% year-over-year increase in revenue and a 13% year-over-year rise in global monthly active users (MAUs), significantly bolstered by international expansion. This combination of stabilizing trends in Tinder and robust growth in Hinge likely created a neutral effect on the overall stock price, preventing a substantial shift in either direction.
3. Consistent Share Repurchase Program provided underlying stock support. Match Group actively engaged in capital allocation during the period, implementing a share repurchase program that helped stabilize its stock price. In fiscal Q2 2026, the company repurchased 5.3 million shares for $185 million at an average price of $34.92. This was followed by an additional repurchase of 0.4 million shares for $16 million between July 1 and July 31, 2026, at an average price of $38. These significant buybacks reduced the outstanding share count and provided a floor for the stock's valuation, counteracting potential selling pressures.
4. Mixed Analyst Sentiment and Modest Price Targets capped upside potential. Analyst coverage of Match Group reflected a largely cautious stance, with a consensus "Hold" rating from 11 to 15 analysts throughout the period. While some analysts, such as TD Cowen, raised their price targets (e.g., from $37.00 to $44.00 in May 2026), the overall average price target from Wall Street remained consistently in the $41 to $42 range. This moderate outlook, despite individual upward revisions, suggested that analysts saw limited significant upside from current trading levels, contributing to the stock remaining largely at the same level.
Show less
Match (MTCH) stock has remained largely at the same level since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Mixed Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Report presented a balanced outlook for investors. While Match Group surpassed analyst expectations for earnings per share (EPS) in its fiscal Q2 2026, reporting $0.70 EPS against a consensus estimate of $0.65, its revenue performance was less robust. The company reported revenue of $853.11 million, which fell short of analyst estimates of $857.77 million and represented a 1.2% year-over-year decline. Furthermore, the guidance provided for fiscal Q3 2026 indicated an expected revenue decrease of 2% to 3% year-over-year, despite an anticipated 10% year-over-year increase in Adjusted EBITDA at the midpoint, leading to a market reaction that tempered significant stock movement.
2. Divergent Performance of Key Brands led to offsetting impacts. During fiscal Q2 2026 (which ended June 30, 2026), Match Group experienced varied results across its primary dating applications. Tinder demonstrated improving user engagement, with year-over-year declines in daily active users (DAUs) narrowing to 4%, marking its best performance in ten quarters. Conversely, Hinge continued its strong growth trajectory, achieving a 22% year-over-year increase in revenue and a 13% year-over-year rise in global monthly active users (MAUs), significantly bolstered by international expansion. This combination of stabilizing trends in Tinder and robust growth in Hinge likely created a neutral effect on the overall stock price, preventing a substantial shift in either direction.
3. Consistent Share Repurchase Program provided underlying stock support. Match Group actively engaged in capital allocation during the period, implementing a share repurchase program that helped stabilize its stock price. In fiscal Q2 2026, the company repurchased 5.3 million shares for $185 million at an average price of $34.92. This was followed by an additional repurchase of 0.4 million shares for $16 million between July 1 and July 31, 2026, at an average price of $38. These significant buybacks reduced the outstanding share count and provided a floor for the stock's valuation, counteracting potential selling pressures.
4. Mixed Analyst Sentiment and Modest Price Targets capped upside potential. Analyst coverage of Match Group reflected a largely cautious stance, with a consensus "Hold" rating from 11 to 15 analysts throughout the period. While some analysts, such as TD Cowen, raised their price targets (e.g., from $37.00 to $44.00 in May 2026), the overall average price target from Wall Street remained consistently in the $41 to $42 range. This moderate outlook, despite individual upward revisions, suggested that analysts saw limited significant upside from current trading levels, contributing to the stock remaining largely at the same level.
Show less
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 0.1% change in MTCH stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 14.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 8092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 37.22 | 37.26 | 0.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,487 | 3,509 | 0.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 17.6% | 20.2% | 14.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.2 | 12.2 | -14.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 235 | 233 | 1.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.1% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MTCH | 0.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.6% | 31.6% |
| Sector (XLC) | -4.5% | 55.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 21.0% change in MTCH stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 24.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 8092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 30.79 | 37.26 | 21.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,469 | 3,509 | 1.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.2% | 20.2% | 24.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.2 | 12.2 | -7.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 241 | 233 | 3.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 21.0% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MTCH | 21.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.1% | 39.2% |
| Sector (XLC) | -7.1% | 50.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 11.2% change in MTCH stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 27.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 8092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 33.49 | 37.26 | 11.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,451 | 3,509 | 1.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.8% | 20.2% | 27.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.4 | 12.2 | -20.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 251 | 233 | 8.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 11.2% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MTCH | 11.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 23.4% | 38.6% |
| Sector (XLC) | 4.6% | 46.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -16.6% change in MTCH stock from 7/31/2023 to 8/9/2026 was primarily driven by a -70.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312023 | 8092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 44.66 | 37.26 | -16.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,177 | 3,509 | 10.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.5% | 20.2% | 112.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 41.3 | 12.2 | -70.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 279 | 233 | 20.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -16.6% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MTCH | -16.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.9% | 37.6% |
| Sector (XLC) | 66.8% | 38.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MTCH Return | -13% | -69% | -12% | -10% | 1% | 15% | -75% |
| Peers Return | 23% | -51% | 91% | 44% | 11% | -9% | 69% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MTCH Win Rate | 42% | 17% | 42% | 33% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 28% | 70% | 57% | 50% | 45% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MTCH Max Drawdown | -30% | -71% | -47% | -25% | -25% | -12% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -35% | -58% | -30% | -28% | -36% | -39% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: Z, ZIP, GOOGL, META, SPOT. See MTCH Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/7/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MTCH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 107 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -32.4% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.9% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 61 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -37.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 27 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -36.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.0% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 74 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -13.6% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.8% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 8 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -38.1% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.6% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 126 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Match's stock fell -21.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 26.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | MTCH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 107 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -32.4% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.9% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 61 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -37.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 27 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -36.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.0% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 74 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -38.1% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.6% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 126 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -38.1% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.6% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 126 days | 15 days |
In The Past
Match's stock fell -21.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 26.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Match (MTCH)
Match Group, Inc. is a global technology company specializing in online dating products and services. Its fundamental business is to connect individuals worldwide seeking romantic relationships, friendships, or companionship through its extensive portfolio of digital platforms.
The company owns and operates many of the most popular dating applications and websites globally. Its flagship brands include Tinder, known for its swipe-based matching; Match, a pioneering subscription-based dating service; and Hinge, which focuses on meaningful connections. Other significant brands like OkCupid, PlentyOfFish, Meetic, Pairs, and OurTime cater to diverse demographics and relationship goals, collectively serving a vast international market of individuals looking for various types of romantic engagements.
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Meta Platforms for dating
Netflix for dating apps
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- Tinder: A popular mobile dating application known for its swipe-based interface to connect users.
- Match: A long-standing online dating service designed to help singles find compatible partners.
- Meetic: A leading European online dating service connecting individuals across various countries.
- OkCupid: An online dating app that utilizes a comprehensive questionnaire to match users based on compatibility.
- Hinge: A dating app focused on fostering serious relationships by encouraging users to connect over shared interests and prompts.
- Pairs: A dating app primarily popular in Asian markets, facilitating connections and relationships.
- PlentyOfFish (PoF): A widely used online dating service that allows users to connect for free.
- OurTime: A specialized dating service catering to singles over the age of 50.
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Match Group, Inc. (MTCH) sells primarily to individuals who use its dating products and services. Based on its diverse portfolio of brands, the company serves various categories of customers:
- Younger Adults and Broad-Appeal Daters: This category includes users of brands like Tinder, Hinge, OkCupid, and PlentyOfFish. These platforms generally cater to a wide age range, predominantly younger adults (20s-30s) but extending into the 40s, seeking a spectrum of connections from casual dating and social interaction to serious relationships.
- Mid-Life Adults and Serious Relationship Seekers: This segment is primarily served by brands such as Match and Meetic. Users in this category are often in their 30s, 40s, and 50s, and typically have a more defined intent towards finding long-term, committed relationships.
- Older Adults and Mature Daters: Specifically addressed by brands like OurTime, this customer category focuses on individuals aged 50 and above who are looking for companionship, friendships, and romantic relationships with peers in their age group.
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- Apple Inc. (AAPL)
- Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)
- Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
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Spencer Rascoff, Chief Executive Officer
Spencer Rascoff was appointed Match Group CEO in February 2025. He is a seasoned entrepreneur and technology leader who co-founded Zillow and served as its CEO for a decade, scaling the company to over 4,500 employees, $3 billion in revenue, and a $10 billion market capitalization. Rascoff also co-founded Hotwire, an online travel marketplace, and Pacaso, a proptech company focused on second-home ownership. He began his career in investment banking at Goldman Sachs and in private equity at TPG Capital. Rascoff has been an active investor and advisor to numerous high-growth technology companies across marketplaces, media, and AI.
Steven Bailey, Chief Financial Officer
Steven Bailey was promoted to Chief Financial Officer of Match Group, effective March 1, 2025. He joined Match Group in 2012 and has held various finance leadership roles within the company, including Senior Vice President, Financial Planning & Business Operations from 2022 to 2025, and CFO, Match Group Americas from 2021 to 2022. Prior to joining Match Group, Bailey held roles at Dow Jones from 2011 to 2012 and Heritage Building Group from 2004 to 2011.
Gary Swidler, President
Gary Swidler assumed the role of President of Match Group on March 1, 2025, transitioning from his previous position as Chief Financial Officer. He joined Match Group in 2015 as CFO, just before the company's IPO in November of that year. Before joining Match Group, Swidler spent 18 years at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, where he held various positions, including Managing Director and Head of the Financial Institutions Investment Banking Group. Earlier in his career, he was an associate at the New York City-based law firm Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz.
Sean Edgett, Chief Legal Officer & Secretary
Sean Edgett was appointed Chief Legal Officer & Secretary of Match Group, effective September 23, 2024. He previously served as Chief Legal Officer & Secretary at UPSIDE Foods from April 2023 to September 2024. Before that, he spent over a decade at Twitter, Inc. (now X), holding various executive legal roles, including Senior Vice President and General Counsel from February 2018 to October 2022. His prior experience also includes being a Director of Legal at NetApp from 2010 to 2012, and practicing law at Latham & Watkins and Akin Gump.
D.V. Williams, Chief People Officer
D.V. Williams was appointed Chief People Officer of Match Group, effective September 13, 2022. In this role, he oversees global people operations, including compensation, benefits, people information systems, diversity, equity, and inclusion, and learning & development. Prior to joining Match Group, Williams served as Chief People Officer at Cars.com, where he led all aspects of human resources and diversity, equity, and inclusion for over three years. Before Cars.com, he led Human Resources, Strategy, and Enabling Functions at Tyson Foods, Inc., where he was involved in strategic initiatives including acquisitions and integrations. He began his career with nearly a decade at Whirlpool Corporation in various human resources roles.
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Here are the key risks to Match Group (MTCH):
- Intense Competition and Challenges in User Growth and Monetization: Match Group operates in a highly competitive online dating market, facing significant pressure from rivals like Bumble. A predominant risk stems from the slowing growth and monetization challenges, particularly with its flagship brand, Tinder, which, along with Hinge, accounts for approximately 94% of the company's operating income. The company has also faced a persistent issue in converting its large base of free users into paying subscribers.
- Data Privacy, Security, and Evolving Regulatory Landscape: As a company that handles vast amounts of personal user data, Match Group is exposed to substantial risks related to data privacy and security. The increasing scrutiny from regulatory bodies and the introduction of new age-verification laws in various regions are creating a complex compliance environment and heightening concerns about data security and potential legal liabilities.
- Financial Health and Capital Structure Concerns: Several financial indicators suggest potential risks to Match Group's financial health. These include a low Altman Z-Score, which can signal financial distress, and a balance sheet that is more leveraged compared to some of its peers. The company has also reported negative equity and tangible book value, partly due to aggressive share buybacks, and has experienced sluggish earnings and revenue growth, leading some to question its valuation and long-term financial stability.
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The rise of advanced generative AI models capable of creating sophisticated AI companions presents an emerging threat. These AI companions offer personalized and engaging interactions, potentially fulfilling emotional and social needs for some individuals that might otherwise lead them to seek connections through traditional dating apps. This new form of digital companionship could subtly reduce the addressable market for human-to-human dating services by providing an alternative outlet for connection and interaction.
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Match Group's addressable market is the global online dating market. This market was valued at approximately USD 10.28 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to about USD 19.33 billion by 2033, expanding at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.27% from 2025 to 2033.
Other estimates for the global online dating market size include:
- USD 5.64 billion in 2025, predicted to increase to approximately USD 11.27 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 8.00% from 2025 to 2034.
- USD 8.80 billion in 2024, projected to reach USD 30.08 billion by 2035, representing a CAGR of 11.82% during the forecast period of 2024-2035.
- USD 9.60 billion in 2025, with a projection to grow to approximately USD 19.50 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 7.5% to 8.0% from 2026 to 2034.
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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Match Group (MTCH) over the next 2-3 years:
- Continued Growth and International Expansion of Hinge: Hinge is consistently highlighted as a strong performer within Match Group's portfolio, with expectations for continued robust direct revenue growth. The brand is on track to achieve $1 billion in revenue by 2027 and is actively expanding its international presence, particularly in European markets, Mexico, Brazil, and India.
- Tinder's Turnaround Driven by Product Innovation and Increased Marketing: While Tinder has experienced revenue declines, Match Group is focused on a strategic turnaround through significant product innovation, user experience improvements, and increased marketing spend. Initiatives include enhancing recommendation algorithms, implementing features like "DoubleDate" and "FaceCheck," and focusing on improving engagement quality, new registrations, and monthly active user (MAU) trends, especially among Gen Z users.
- Monetization Optimizations and Increased Revenue Per Payer (RPP): Match Group has demonstrated an ability to increase Revenue Per Payer (RPP). This is expected to continue through various monetization optimizations, new feature introductions, and the strategic use of AI to improve relevance and matching. These efforts aim to enhance the user experience and drive higher engagement, which in turn can lead to increased subscriber value.
- Growth from Emerging and Asia-Focused Brands: Beyond Tinder and Hinge, Match Group anticipates positive revenue growth from its "Emerging" brands and has noted the potential for double-digit revenue growth from Azar. Match Group Asia has also shown an increase in payers in certain areas, indicating growth opportunities in these markets through continued product development and localized strategies.
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Share Repurchases
- Match Group's Board of Directors authorized the repurchase of up to an additional $1.5 billion in shares, effective once the existing authorization, which had $247 million remaining, is exhausted.
- In the full year 2025, Match Group repurchased 24.7 million shares of its common stock for a total of $789 million.
- As of January 31, 2026, $959 million in aggregate value of shares remained available under the company's share repurchase program.
Share Issuance
- In 2021, Match Group completed the acquisition of Hyperconnect for $1.725 billion, with 50% of the transaction funded by the issuance of 5.9 million shares of Match Group common stock.
- The company's stock-based compensation, which typically leads to share issuance, was $204 million in 2022, $232 million in 2023, and $267 million in 2024.
- Despite issuances, Match Group has seen a decline in its shares outstanding over the last few years, with 0.27 billion in 2023, 0.25 billion in 2024, and 0.23 billion in 2025.
Outbound Investments
- In June 2021, Match Group acquired Hyperconnect, a social discovery and video technology company, for $1.725 billion.
- Match Group made several other acquisitions, including The League in July 2022, The Fresh New Group in October 2022, Salams in April 2025, and Her (a lesbian dating app) in May 2025.
- The company's strategy involves acquiring rising competitors to integrate them into its ecosystem.
Capital Expenditures
- Match Group's capital expenditures for the fiscal year ending December 2025 amounted to $56.765 million.
- Average capital expenditures for the fiscal years 2021 to 2025 were approximately $60.77 million.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures includes technological innovation, refining algorithms, enhancing user interfaces, and investing in AI-driven product innovation and trust-and-safety features.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 195.78 |
| Mkt Cap | 54.6 |
| Rev LTM | 10,811 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,846 |
| FCF LTM | 2,204 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,726 |
| CFO LTM | 2,272 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,773 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 15.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.8% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 32.7% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 37.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 22.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 26.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 15.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 54.6 |
| P/S | 4.1 |
| P/Op Inc | 33.5 |
| P/EBIT | 15.5 |
| P/E | 19.9 |
| P/CFO | 19.3 |
| Total Yield | 5.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.8% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -0.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 12.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -8.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 40.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -5.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -1.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -32.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -34.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tinder | 1,925 | 1,991 | 1,964 | 1,842 | |
| Hinge | 691 | 550 | 396 | 284 | |
| Evergreen & Emerging | 608 | 654 | 701 | 741 | |
| Match Group ( MG) Asia | 268 | 285 | 303 | 322 | |
| Eliminations | -5 | -1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Connections | 2,983 | ||||
| Total | 3,487 | 3,479 | 3,365 | 3,189 | 2,983 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tinder | 833 | 889 | 956 | 956 | |
| Hinge | 166 | 121 | 74 | 79 | |
| Evergreen & Emerging | 63 | 66 | 82 | 36 | |
| Match Group ( MG) Asia | 6 | -32 | -9 | -312 | |
| Corporate and unallocated costs | -196 | -221 | -187 | -244 | |
| ANGI Homeservices | 39 | ||||
| Applications | 114 | ||||
| Corporate | -184 | ||||
| Dotdash | 29 | ||||
| Emerging & Other | -13 | ||||
| Match Group | 649 | ||||
| Vimeo | -52 | ||||
| Total | 873 | 823 | 917 | 515 | 581 |
| $ Mil | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corporate | 2,114 | 1,058 | 1,010 | 1,491 | 1,251 |
| Match Group | 1,919 | 2,007 | 2,040 | 1,915 | |
| ANGI Homeservices | 1,765 | 1,415 | 279 | ||
| Applications | 725 | 861 | 619 | 625 | |
| Vimeo | 121 | ||||
| Emerging & Other | 108 | ||||
| Deferred tax assets | 65 | 66 | |||
| Dotdash | 58 | ||||
| Publishing | 207 | 436 | 736 | ||
| Video | 254 | 261 | 111 | ||
| HomeAdvisor | 189 | ||||
| Other | 143 | ||||
| Match | 1,304 | ||||
| Media | 102 | ||||
| Search & Applications | 1,372 | ||||
| eCommerce | 245 | ||||
| Total | 6,875 | 5,868 | 4,646 | 5,210 | 4,275 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $37.26 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 8.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 11/19/2015 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -9.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $37.22 | $33.61 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 0.1% | 10.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 35.7% | 32.2% |
| Downside Capture | 96.09 | 119.96 |
| Upside Capture | 82.28 | 98.52 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 31.3% | 38.3% |
MTCH Betas & Captures as of 7/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.48 | 0.63 | 0.72 | 0.97 | 0.97 | 0.89 |
| Up Beta | -1.34 | 0.91 | 1.03 | 0.87 | 1.11 | 0.86 |
| Down Beta | 0.36 | 0.60 | 0.38 | 0.79 | 0.63 | 0.82 |
| Up Capture | 138% | 89% | 81% | 134% | 106% | 56% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 22 | 32 | 69 | 125 | 371 |
| Down Capture | 75% | 27% | 71% | 89% | 104% | 101% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 31 | 56 | 126 | 378 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MTCH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTCH | 2.3% | 32.2% | 0.10 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 4.3% | 14.9% | 0.07 | 47.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 23.3% | 12.8% | 1.36 | 38.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 28.5% | 28.4% | 0.87 | -1.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 32.9% | 19.8% | 1.32 | -21.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.2% | 13.8% | 0.72 | 33.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -43.7% | 43.0% | -1.21 | 19.0% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MTCH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTCH | -24.6% | 44.3% | -0.50 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 7.2% | 20.9% | 0.26 | 54.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.5% | 17.2% | 0.61 | 50.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.6% | 18.6% | 0.81 | 4.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 19.6% | 0.31 | 5.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.3% | 18.9% | 0.02 | 41.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 9.0% | 53.0% | 0.36 | 22.2% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MTCH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTCH | 13.6% | 46.8% | 0.44 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 9.2% | 22.2% | 0.47 | 49.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 45.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.1% | 16.2% | 0.61 | 5.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.4% | 18.0% | 0.33 | 9.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 35.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.4% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 13.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/7/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/4/2026 | -7.5% | ||
| 5/5/2026 | 0.9% | -6.1% | -7.7% |
| 2/3/2026 | 5.9% | 12.4% | 8.3% |
| 11/4/2025 | 5.2% | 4.4% | 9.4% |
| 8/5/2025 | 10.5% | 8.0% | 10.9% |
| 5/8/2025 | -9.6% | -3.2% | 4.8% |
| 2/4/2025 | -7.9% | -7.0% | -14.1% |
| 11/6/2024 | -17.9% | -18.8% | -13.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 12 | 11 |
| # Negative | 11 | 11 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 5.2% | 5.1% | 9.1% |
| Median Negative | -7.9% | -9.8% | -10.3% |
| Max Positive | 13.2% | 12.4% | 13.8% |
| Max Negative | -17.9% | -18.8% | -26.3% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/4/2026 | -7.5% | ||
| 5/5/2026 | 0.9% | -6.1% | -7.7% |
| 2/3/2026 | 5.9% | 12.4% | 8.3% |
| 11/4/2025 | 5.2% | 4.4% | 9.4% |
| 8/5/2025 | 10.5% | 8.0% | 10.9% |
| 5/8/2025 | -9.6% | -3.2% | 4.8% |
| 2/4/2025 | -7.9% | -7.0% | -14.1% |
| 11/6/2024 | -17.9% | -18.8% | -13.1% |
| 7/30/2024 | 13.2% | 5.9% | 9.1% |
| 5/7/2024 | -5.4% | 1.4% | 3.8% |
| 1/30/2024 | 1.7% | -4.5% | -4.5% |
| 10/31/2023 | -15.3% | -13.3% | -6.4% |
| 8/1/2023 | -0.9% | -2.9% | 0.1% |
| 1/31/2023 | -5.0% | -9.8% | -22.9% |
| 11/1/2022 | 4.2% | 0.5% | 13.8% |
| 8/2/2022 | -17.6% | -15.9% | -26.3% |
| 5/3/2022 | 6.2% | -11.1% | 6.5% |
| 2/1/2022 | 5.3% | 0.3% | -8.1% |
| 11/2/2021 | 3.0% | 4.7% | -13.6% |
| 8/3/2021 | -5.0% | -12.3% | -12.5% |
| 5/4/2021 | 3.4% | 5.4% | -1.5% |
| 2/2/2021 | -8.0% | 5.8% | -4.3% |
| 11/4/2020 | 4.9% | 3.7% | 13.0% |
| 8/4/2020 | 12.2% | 7.4% | 9.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 12 | 11 |
| # Negative | 11 | 11 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 5.2% | 5.1% | 9.1% |
| Median Negative | -7.9% | -9.8% | -10.3% |
| Max Positive | 13.2% | 12.4% | 13.8% |
| Max Negative | -17.9% | -18.8% | -26.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/23/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/23/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/06/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/24/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/08/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/06/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/07/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/25/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/10/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/08/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/28/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/07/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 8/5/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Total Revenue | 885.00 Mil | 890.00 Mil | 895.00 Mil | 4.1% | Higher New | Guidance: 855.00 Mil for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 330.00 Mil | 332.50 Mil | 335.00 Mil | 1.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 327.50 Mil for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 37.0% | -1.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 38.0% for Q2 2026 | |||
| 2027 Hinge Revenue | 1.00 Bil | ||||||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Revenue | 850.00 Mil | 855.00 Mil | 860.00 Mil | 0 | Same New | Guidance: 855.00 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 325.00 Mil | 327.50 Mil | 330.00 Mil | 3.1% | Higher New | Guidance: 317.50 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 38.0% | 1.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 37.0% for Q1 2026 | |||
| Q2 2026 Net Income | 160.00 Mil | 162.50 Mil | 165.00 Mil | ||||
| Q2 2026 Net Income Margin | 19.0% | ||||||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/3/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Total Revenue | 850.00 Mil | 855.00 Mil | 860.00 Mil | -1.7% | Lower New | Guidance: 870.00 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 315.00 Mil | 317.50 Mil | 320.00 Mil | -9.9% | Lower New | Guidance: 352.50 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 37.0% | -4.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 41.0% for Q4 2025 | |||
| 2026 Total Revenue | 3.41 Bil | 3.47 Bil | 3.54 Bil | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 1.28 Bil | 1.30 Bil | 1.32 Bil | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 37.5% | ||||||
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | 1.08 Bil | 1.11 Bil | 1.14 Bil | ||||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/4/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Total Revenue | 865.00 Mil | 870.00 Mil | 875.00 Mil | -4.9% | Lower New | Actual: 915.00 Mil for Q3 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | 350.00 Mil | 352.50 Mil | 355.00 Mil | ||||
| Q4 2025 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 41.0% | ||||||
| Q4 2025 Savings from alternative payments | 14.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Savings from alternative payments | 90.00 Mil | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 7/23/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brenner, Melissa Anne | Direct | Sell | 5082026 | 35.94 | 5,141 | 184,761 | 582,855 | Form | |
| 2 | Hosseini, Hesam | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 3062026 | 30.13 | 59,013 | Form | ||
| 3 | Rascoff, Spencer M | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 11202025 | 31.84 | 14,000 | 445,691 | 5,256,866 | Form |
| 4 | Eigenmann, Philip D | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 9052025 | 37.52 | 6,531 | 245,024 | 871,897 | Form |
| 5 | McDaniel, Ann | Direct | Sell | 8292025 | 37.58 | 5,423 | 203,774 | 823,889 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brenner, Melissa Anne | Direct | Sell | 5082026 | 35.94 | 5,141 | 184,761 | 582,855 | Form | |
| 2 | Hosseini, Hesam | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 3062026 | 30.13 | 59,013 | Form | ||
| 3 | Rascoff, Spencer M | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 11202025 | 31.84 | 14,000 | 445,691 | 5,256,866 | Form |
| 4 | Eigenmann, Philip D | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 9052025 | 37.52 | 6,531 | 245,024 | 871,897 | Form |
| 5 | McDaniel, Ann | Direct | Sell | 8292025 | 37.58 | 5,423 | 203,774 | 823,889 | Form | |
| 6 | Rascoff, Spencer M | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 8282025 | 37.57 | 13,250 | 497,861 | 5,663,514 | Form |
| 7 | Bailey, Stephen | Direct | Sell | 8082025 | 36.72 | 12,500 | 458,951 | 295,858 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Aug 10, 202613F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)
Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
MTCH Trade Sentinel
Stock Conviction
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is constructive, based on leading indicators of a turnaround at Tinder, where daily user trends are nearing positive growth for the first time in three years. While paying users and revenue are still declining, this is offset by strong growth at Hinge and expanding company-wide profitability. The story hinges on management converting improving user engagement into financial growth.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Consumer Freemium & SubscriptionTotal Revenue ≈ (Total Payers) x (Revenue Per Payer) Operating Leverage. The business has high gross margins, so stabilizing or growing the Payer base on the existing cost structure leads to significant profit expansion, as demonstrated by a 14% increase in Adjusted EBITDA on a 1% revenue decline in Q2 2026.
Looking for high-conviction positions with a better risk/reward profile? See what's currently in the
Trefis High Quality Portfolio.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests a turnaround is underway, with leading user metrics inflecting positively ahead of an expected financial recovery in 2027.
Mechanism:
Stabilizing Tinder's user base, which is imminent, combined with 6% price increases and Hinge's 22% growth, should drive significant operating leverage, as seen in Q2's 14% adjusted EBITDA growth on declining revenue.
Supporting Evidence:
- Tinder's daily active user decline narrowed to 4% in Q2, its best result in 10 quarters.
- Management expects Tinder's daily users to show positive year-over-year growth 'any day now'.
- Hinge revenue grew 22% year-over-year in Q2, with 13% user growth.
- Overall Revenue Per Payer increased 6% year-over-year to $21.13 in Q2 2026.
- Adjusted EBITDA grew 14% in Q2 despite a 1% revenue decline, showing strong leverage.
PRIMARY RISK
Demand from younger users has 'softened,' and total paying users declined 6% in Q2. The risk is that Tinder's user stabilization fails to convert into paying customers, stalling the financial turnaround.
Mechanism:
A failure for Tinder's paying users to return to growth by Q4 of next year as guided.
Supporting Evidence:
- Total paying users declined 6% year-over-year to 13.3 million in Q2 2026.
- The company has acknowledged that demand has 'softened among younger generations'.
- Q3 2026 revenue is guided to decline 2% to 3% year-over-year.
- Tinder's revenue declined from $1,991 million in 2024 to $1,925 million in 2025.
Key KPI Watchlist
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Tinder User Growth (DAU/MAU) | Daily Active User (DAU) decline of 4% Y/Y and Monthly Active User (MAU) decline of 7% Y/Y in Q2 2026 - Turning around | Management commentary on the August 2026 earnings call was highly positive, stating that DAU trends have improved meaningfully and are expected to turn positive "any day now," which would mark the first positive year-over-year usage in over three years. This indicates a significant inflection point is imminent, driven by product improvements. |
| Total Company Payers | 13.3 million in Q2 2026 - Weakening | The slight acceleration in the decline of paying users contrasts with the improving engagement trends at the top of the funnel for Tinder. This suggests a lag or friction in converting the stabilizing user base into paying customers across the portfolio. |
| Revenue Per Payer (RPP) | $21.13 (Q2 2026) | The average monthly revenue earned from a paying user, reflecting the effectiveness of monetization strategies and pricing. |
| Tinder Daily Active Users (DAU) Growth | -4% year-over-year (Q2 2026) | Market rewards The CEO stated that DAUs are expected to 'turn positive year over year any day now,' calling it a 'huge milestone'.. The health and daily engagement of the user base for the company's largest brand. Improving trends signal that product changes are resonating with users. |
| Sparks and Spark Coverage (Tinder) | Sparks declined 4% Y/Y; Spark Coverage grew 2% Y/Y (Q2 2026) | Sparks (6-way conversations) are a proxy for real connections and product efficacy. Spark Coverage measures the percentage of users achieving a Spark. Improving trends indicate better user outcomes. |
Core Investment Debate
Tinder's User Inflection vs. Lagging Financials
BULL VIEW
Bulls focus on Tinder's daily user trends, which are about to turn positive, as a leading indicator that the product turnaround is working and will translate to revenue growth in 2027 as management has guided.
CORE TENSION
Can Tinder's imminent user growth inflection, a first in three years, overcome the current 6% decline in paying users, which drove a negative market reaction?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH
The latest evidence favors the bulls' leading indicator. Management's forecast for positive daily user growth 'any day now' is a specific, near-term catalyst that precedes the financial recovery.
BEAR VIEW
Bears see the 6% decline in paying users and the negative Q3 revenue guide as proof that user engagement gains are not converting, reflecting structurally softer demand from younger demographics.
Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
by the end of September | Tinder Events Global Expansion Watch: Tinder Events feature will expand to 26 cities worldwide. |
in Q3 | Hinge New Subscription Test Watch: Hinge plans to begin testing an additional subscription tier. |
10/27/2026 | Major Competitive Announcements Watch: Announcements of new features or products related to dating, social discovery, or events from Meta or Google. |
10/28/2026 | Reddit Earnings Report Watch: Peer Reddit (RDDT) is scheduled to report earnings. |
11/2/2026 | Negative Quarterly Earnings Report Watch: Actual Q3 revenue vs. guidance, payer trends, and any revisions to full-year outlook or 2027 targets. |
11/2/2026 | Tinder Turnaround Stalls Watch: Reported DAU and MAU growth for Tinder, especially commentary on Gen Z and female user engagement. |
11/2/2026 | Hinge Growth Deceleration Watch: Hinge's reported revenue growth rate, payer growth, and management commentary on performance in European and Latin American expansion markets. |
11/2/2026 | Match Group Earnings Report Watch: Match (MTCH) is scheduled to report its next quarterly earnings. |
Key Events in Last 6 Months
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-08-04 | Q2 Results and Weak Guidance Details: Match reported Q2 revenue down 1% to $853 million and forecast Q3 revenue below estimates, causing shares to fall. The stock had a two-day reaction of -6.0%. | -5.9% $40.54 -> $38.15 |
2026-07-23 | Analyst Note on Tinder Details: An analyst note mentioned that Tinder was showing tentative signs of improving user trends but that it remained too early to call a turnaround. | -0.3% $38.03 -> $37.91 |
2026-05-05 | First Quarter 2026 Results Details: The company announced Q1 results, noting that Tinder registrations returned to year-over-year growth in March for the first time in nearly two years. The stock reaction was 0.0%. | -0.4% $37.97 -> $37.80 |
2026-04-27 | Investment in Sniffies Platform Details: The company announced a $100 million minority investment in Sniffies, a platform for non-heterosexual men, with a path to full ownership. | +0.7% $36.55 -> $36.82 |
2026-02-22 | Azar App Removed by Apple Details: On February 22, 2026, Apple removed the Azar app from the Apple App Store following an update to Apple's App Review Guidelines, preventing new downloads. | +0.6% $30.34 -> $30.52 |
2026-02-03 | Fourth Quarter 2025 Results Details: The company announced Q4 results, highlighting a year-over-year increase in Tinder's Sparks Coverage and 22% Y/Y direct revenue growth at Hinge. The stock reacted -3.0% post-earnings. | -2.9% $31.18 -> $30.26 |
Risk Management
Position Sizing
2% - 4%
REDUCED POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: MTCH trades at roughly 36% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 14% for the S&P 500 (2.6x the market), around the 86th percentile of its own trailing year. A 2% - 4% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
META - Meta Platforms
Scale and Ecosystem PlayMeta offers exposure to social discovery through its massive, integrated user base on Facebook and Instagram, with superior financial scale and no dependence on third-party app stores for distribution.
Core Thesis: Investing in a dominant social media ecosystem that can leverage its network effects and data to compete in social discovery at scale.
GOOGL - Alphabet
Platform and Data DominanceAlphabet owns the Google Play Store, a critical distribution channel for Match. It possesses unparalleled data and technical resources that could be deployed into competing social or connection services.
Core Thesis: Investing in the owner of a key digital distribution platform with immense, latent competitive potential in adjacent markets.
How Is The Market Pricing MTCH?
A portfolio of digital connection brands in transition, betting on a product-led turnaround at its core asset (Tinder) while scaling its new growth engine (Hinge) internationally.
Match Group is navigating a strategic shift. While historically dependent on Tinder, that brand is now in a 'revitalization' phase to combat user fatigue, particularly among Gen Z. Early signs from engagement metrics like DAU are positive. Meanwhile, Hinge has become the clear growth driver, targeting users seeking serious relationships and expanding globally. The investment thesis rests on the dual success of Tinder's turnaround stabilizing the core business and Hinge's continued high-growth execution.
What will confirm the thesis
Tinder's DAU and MAU trends turning positive year-over-year, Hinge maintaining strong double-digit growth in new international markets, and stabilization in the E&E segment.
What will damage the thesis
A re-acceleration of user declines at Tinder, Hinge's growth stalling in new markets, or significant market share gains by large social media competitors.
Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis
Quarterly fluctuations in RPP or user metrics due to specific product tests, which management has indicated can cause short-term impacts.
Repricing Catalyst
The imminent turn to positive year-over-year Daily Active User (DAU) growth at Tinder, which management indicated could happen 'any day now' as of the early August earnings call.
What MTCH Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on the twelve months through fiscal Q1 2026
Tinder
$1.9B TTM (55% of Total) · 76% MarginWhat It Is
A discovery-oriented dating app, popular among 18 to 30-year-old users, that emphasizes low-pressure social connection through its patented 'Swipe' technology.
Who Pays & How
Users pay for subscriptions like Tinder Plus®, Tinder Gold®, or Tinder Platinum® to unlock premium features such as unlimited use of the 'Swipe Right' feature or the ability to 'See Who Likes You', enhancing their ability to make connections.
A freemium model with tiered recurring subscriptions and à la carte features like 'Super Likes' and 'Boosts' available for one-time purchase.
Competition
Social media platforms like Facebook and Instagram (both owned by Meta), Snap, and TikTok.
Larger social media competitors have massive existing user bases and personal data that can be leveraged to offer competing services at no charge.
Strong brand recognition, significant scale with a large community of active users, and patented technology like 'Swipe'.
Hinge
$733M TTM (21% of Total) · 40% MarginWhat It Is
A mobile-only dating app for individuals seeking intentional, relationship-oriented connections, branded as being 'Designed to be Deleted'.
Who Pays & How
Users with a higher level of intent to enter a relationship pay for premium subscription offerings (Hinge+ and HingeX) to access services designed to reinforce that purpose and help them find a partner.
A freemium model with two premium subscription offerings.
Competition
Other online dating platforms.
Strong product-market fit and brand positioning with 'intentioned daters', which drives product-led growth at scale.
Evergreen & Emerging (E&E)
$598M TTM (17% of Total) · 15% MarginWhat It Is
A collection of brands serving distinct audiences. 'Evergreen' brands are pioneers like Match, Meetic, and Plenty of Fish, while 'Emerging' brands like BLK and The League serve specific communities defined by shared culture, values, or experiences. As of Q2 2026, the segment is framed as 'Everyone, Everywhere' and now includes the Asia-based businesses Azar and Pairs.
Who Pays & How
Users pay for services tailored to their specific needs, whether it's a higher-intent search for a serious relationship on Match or connecting within a specific demographic community on an affinity-based brand.
Varies by brand, but generally relies on a freemium model with subscriptions and à la carte features.
Competition
A fragmented market of other online dating platforms and social media apps.
The portfolio approach allows the company to offer differentiated services that collectively address a broad spectrum of user needs.
Match Group (MG) Asia
$264M TTM (8% of Total) · -3% MarginWhat It Is
This segment historically served Asian and Middle Eastern markets with brands like Pairs, a leading dating service in Japan, and Azar, a one-to-one video chat service. As of Q2 2026, these brands have been integrated into the E&E segment.
Who Pays & How
Users pay for services like Pairs, which is designed to address social barriers to dating in Japan, or Azar, which allows users to interact with people globally via video chat in their native language.
Freemium and subscription-based models.
Competition
Brands tailored to specific cultural norms and preferences in Asian and Middle Eastern markets.
MTCH Evolution: Price Return by Era
Through 2022 · Portfolio Consolidation & Tinder's Dominance
-69%
The company operated a large portfolio of dating brands, with Tinder emerging as the dominant force in revenue and profitability, driving the company's growth through rapid user adoption and monetization.
2023-2025 · The 'Reset' Phase: Tinder Stalls, Hinge Rises
-20%
Tinder's growth stagnated and its user base began to decline, while Hinge accelerated to become the company's primary growth engine. In response, the company initiated a 'reset' phase in 2025, focusing on cost rationalization, a more collaborative 'One MG' operational approach, and prioritizing user outcomes.
2026-Present · The 'Revitalize' Phase
+17%
The company is focused on a product-led turnaround at Tinder, which is showing early positive signs in user engagement metrics. Hinge continues its rapid international expansion. The portfolio was reorganized, with the MG Asia brands folded into a newly defined 'Everyone, Everywhere' (E&E) segment.
Market Is In Wait-and-See Mode
Price structure is strongly bullish. The regime, trend, and proximity to highs all point towards intact institutional trend. Relative to SPY: Mild underperformance and fading; relative trend is a headwind for the thesis. Volume and momentum are supportive. OBV (on-balance volume) and up/down volume character favor buyers. Earnings history is a strong counter-signal. The market has consistently rejected the narrative. This is not noise, but institutional disagreement. NOTE: Structure and earnings history are contradicting each other. The price trend says one thing, and the market reaction to catalysts says another. Treat this with caution and weigh the most recent earnings event heavily.
① Structure
+4
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
+2
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
-4
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
2 / 12
1
Price Structure & Trend
Trending Up · Golden Cross
▾
2
Momentum
Pausing
▾
3
Relative Strength vs. SPY
Mild Underperformance
▾
4
Institutional Footprint & Volume
Mild Accumulation
▾
5
Volatility
Normal
▾
6
Key Price Levels
Range · Vol Rising
▾
7
Earnings Reaction History
Inconsistent
▾
8
How the Verdict Is Derived
Three Pillars
▾
Industry Resources
| Communication Services Resources |
| Variety |
| The Hollywood Reporter |
| Adweek |
| Interactive Media & Services Resources |
| Social Media Today |
| Search Engine Land |
| Nieman Journalism Lab |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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Core Cache Last Updated: 8/9/2026