Match (MTCH)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $33.62 | Market Cap: $8.1 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Interactive Media & Services
Match (MTCH)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $33.62Market Cap: $8.1 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Interactive Media & Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Connection & Socialization, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Dating Platforms, and Online Marketplaces. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Connection & Socialization, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Dating Platforms, and Online Marketplaces. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MTCH Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points for recent stock movements of Match Group (MTCH):
1. Declining Payers and User Growth Challenges
Match Group has experienced struggles with growing its user base and a decline in payers across its portfolio of dating apps. In the second quarter of 2025, total payers across the company dropped to 14.1 million, representing a 5% decrease year-over-year. This trend continued into the third quarter of 2025, with payers decreasing by 687,000 compared to the previous year.
2. Disappointing Revenue Guidance
The company has occasionally issued revenue guidance that fell short of analysts' expectations. For example, the revenue guidance for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025 was less impressive, coming in 1.8% below analyst estimates. Earlier, in the third quarter of 2024, revenue projections for the fourth quarter also disappointed, contributing to a stock tumble.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MTCH Return | 144% | -13% | -69% | -12% | -10% | 5% | -44% |
| Peers Return | 13% | 18% | -37% | 53% | 33% | 20% | 106% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MTCH Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 17% | 42% | 33% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 23% | 36% | 15% | 40% | 37% | 65% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MTCH Max Drawdown | -42% | -19% | -70% | -31% | -20% | -16% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -10% | -2% | -40% | -3% | -4% | -17% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VMEO, STUB, WSHP, GOOGL, META. See MTCH Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MTCH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -83.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 517.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -48.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 95.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 74 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -39.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 65.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 147 days | 120 days |
Compare to VMEO, STUB, WSHP, GOOGL, META
In The Past
Match's stock fell -83.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/21/2021. A -83.8% loss requires a 517.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MTCH. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.5% | -0.5% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -22.5% | -22.5% | -25.6% |
| 11302024 | MTCH | Match | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.5% | 4.1% | -16.5% |
| 09302023 | MTCH | Match | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.4% | -3.5% | -27.4% |
| 01312020 | MTCH | Match II [DELISTED] | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 74.0% | 136.9% | -39.5% |
| 05312018 | MTCH | Match II [DELISTED] | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.5% | 75.3% | -14.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.5% | -0.5% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -22.5% | -22.5% | -25.6% |
| 11302024 | MTCH | Match | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.5% | 4.1% | -16.5% |
| 09302023 | MTCH | Match | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.4% | -3.5% | -27.4% |
| 01312020 | MTCH | Match II [DELISTED] | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 74.0% | 136.9% | -39.5% |
| 05312018 | MTCH | Match II [DELISTED] | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.5% | 75.3% | -14.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Match
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Growth & Margins
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Valuation
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Returns
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Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tinder | 1,964 | ||||
| Evergreen & Emerging | 701 | ||||
| Hinge | 396 | ||||
| Match Group ( MG) Asia | 303 | ||||
| Eliminations | 0 | ||||
| Connections | 3,189 | 2,983 | 2,391 | ||
| Dating | 2,051 | ||||
| Total | 3,365 | 3,189 | 2,983 | 2,391 | 2,051 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tinder | 956 | ||||
| Evergreen & Emerging | 82 | ||||
| Hinge | 74 | ||||
| Match Group ( MG) Asia | -9 | ||||
| Corporate and unallocated costs | -187 | ||||
| Total | 917 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |